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At least 163 records · Page 9

Can we rely on drought–ending “miracles” in the Colorado River Basin?

Unexpected and large spring precipitation events in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) that significantly alleviated an otherwise severe water shortage have been observed for over a century, such as the “Miracle May” of 2015. Although these events are often termed as “drought-busting” or “miracle events” by water managers and the media, they have not been extensively researched or characterized. In this collaborative study with water managers across the CRB, we propose a definition for these hard-to-predict, ultra-high precipitation events occurring during the late-snow or snowmelt season. This characterization provides a framework for quantifying the frequency and intensity of extreme dry-to-wet springtime transitions. Despite limitations of climate model simulations due to uncertainties and the inhomogeneous qualities, our findings suggest that such transitions may become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate. Finally, in view of the potentially wetter but less-snowy climate in the basin, the need for future research to more quantitatively assess these “miracle events” is emphasized.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scripts and raw/processed precipitation NRCS network data, Upper Colorado, 2008-2017

This data package consists of scripts and data that were used to generate all the results and figures for Mital et al., 2020 (https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2020.00020). The purpose of the study was to develop a new algorithm to impute (or gap-fill) missing daily precipitation data. Study area was the Upper Colorado Water Resources Region (UCWRR), over a time period of 2008-2017. In terms of data, the package consists of raw precipitation measurements from Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) network. These raw measurements are compiled into a single csv file (NRCS_dates_2008_2017.csv). The corresponding metadata are compiled in Metadata_processed.csv. The package also consists of outputs generated during Baseline and Sequential imputation runs as documented in Mital et al., 2020. Scripts used to generate all the results and figures for Mital et al., 2020 are also uploaded. A readme file documenting the layout of the data archive is also uploaded, and a KML file shows the geographic range for the data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Historical and Future Extreme Event Indices for the Colorado River Basin

Extremes events are occurring more frequently and are projected to increase in the future. This data set includes extreme event indices that were generated for the Colorado River basin using data from the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model. VIC simulations were run using six CMIP5 earth system models (ESMs), two different time periods, (historical, 1970-1999) and future (2070-2099), and for one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5). ESMs available are MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, and GFDL-ESM2G. The different indicators include temperature (min/max, freezing days, heating days), precipitation (dry days, max), runoff (min, max), soil moisture (min, max), evapotranspiration (max), snow water equivalent (SWE, max), wind speeds (max), and pressure (min). Detailed information on the indicators, file names, and how they were calculated is included in the README.txt document. Data sets were used to calculate results are in related references Bennett et al. 2020 and Talsma et al. 2021. Details on the VIC model configuration is described in related references Bennett et al. 2018 and Bennett et al. 2017.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data From: "Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater"

This repository contains the data and code associated with the paper titled "Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater," published in Nature Geoscience, 2026. This study seeks to answer how various ages of groundwater interact with mountainous streamflow in mountainous headwaters such as the East River. It includes various model-data processing scripts, primarily for ParFlow-CLM analysis of simulated water years 2015-2021, and two numerical warming experiments (+2.5 and +4.0 degrees C), including run scripts, forcing scripts, and post-processing, as well as comparison to observation datasets, detailed below. This data requires the use of R (.r, .rmd), Python (.py), Jupyter Notebook or Jupyter Lab (.ipynb), ParFLOW-CLM, EcoSLIM. Further information on the use of all file formats mentioned below (e.g. .tff. .nc) are provided within the associated scripts and directory where the files are located. Contents & Usage ASO/: ​​Contains the bash and python scripts used to convert airborne snow observatory (ASO) data (ASO, 2023) in various data formats (georeferenced tiff file, NetCDF, UTM, and to latitude/longitude) then regrided to the ParFlow equivalent grid. Output data are in regrid_regll_data.zip and subsequently visualized and analyzed in plot_and_compare.py for Supplementary Figures A14 and A15. The wksht_ASO_comparison.xlsx spreadsheet is used to calculate the data for Supplementary Figure A16. EcoSLIM/: Contains the scripts and input files to run the EcoSLIM particle tracking simulations (/run_scripts) and the post-processing python script (/plot_scripts/eco_agedist_plots.ipynb). Jasechko et al./: Contains the jupyter notebook (Extract_Elevation.ipynb) to determine the outlet elevations of the 260 watersheds used in Jasechko et al. (2016), and the corresponding table, Table_S1_Watersheds_alt.csv. Used to create Supplementary Information Figure A2. PLM_Wells/: Contains the QA/QC-ed groundwater level time series of the PLM-1 and PLM-6 Monitoring Wells from Faybishenko et al. (2023), reformatted to water years used for Supplementary Figures A19 and and A20. ParFlow/: Contains the input files and run scripts to run ParFlow-CLM (/run_scripts), the python and tool command language (Tcl) scripts to create and distribute the ParFlow forcing simulation files (/forcing), and various scripts and intermediary files to analyze the model outputs (/post_process). SQUIRE/: Contains the processing scripts and intermediary files for the Surface QUantitatIve pRecipitation Estimation (SQUIRE) data (Grover, 2023) used to generate Supplementary Figure A18. USGS_Streamflow/: Contains the raw and gap-filled United States Geological Survey streamflow data (U.S. Geological Survey, 2026) used at the Almont station (site number 09112500). Gap-filling is performed in the R script with data from the Taylor station (site number 09110000). (/USGS_09112500_EAST_RIVER_AT_ALMONT_GAP_FILLED/code_almont_streamflow_gap_fill.Rmd). discharge/: Contains the gap-filled discharge data at the Watershed Function SFA East River pumphouse site (Newcomer et al., 2022) used to generate Supplementary Figure A13 and to compute hourly Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients (NSE) in Table A4. snotel_and_flux_tower/: Contains the snow telemetry data (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) from the Butte (site ID 380) and Schofield (site ID 737) stations, reformatted by water year, accessed with the snotelr R package. Used to create Supplementary Figure A17. Also contains the flux tower observational data (FluxTower_Pumphouse_ESS-DIVE.ET_only.h.txt) from Ryken et al. (2022) and sap flux transpiration data (MaxB_Transpiration_5Sites.daily_sums.h.txt) from Ryken (2021), used to create Supplementary Figures A22 and A23, respectively. Raw EcoSLIM model outputs are in excess of 24TB, and are stored on National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) and publicly available via the external link provided in the paper.

atmospheric warming↗

Annual Copper Mountain Conferences on Multigrid and Iterative Methods, Copper Mountain, Colorado

This project supported the Copper Mountain Conference on Multigrid and Iterative Methods, held from 2007 to 2015, at Copper Mountain, Colorado. The subject of the Copper Mountain Conference Series alternated between Multigrid Methods in odd-numbered years and Iterative Methods in even-numbered years. Begun in 1983, the Series represents an important forum for the exchange of ideas in these two closely related fields. This report describes the Copper Mountain Conference on Multigrid and Iterative Methods, 2007-2015. Information on the conference series is available at http://grandmaster.colorado.edu/~copper/.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Electric Vehicle Charging Implications for Utility Ratemaking in Colorado

Increasing use of electric vehicles (EVs) will affect utility costs and operations, which in turn will affect regulatory decisions on customer rates and utility programs. This presentation provides an overview of current research on the regulatory implications of EV deployment. It also includes a special analysis of EV charging as demand response specific to Colorado and its use of wind power.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Colorado Technology Primer for Economists and Social Scientists (CRADA Final Report)

NREL will assist the Colorado School of Mines (Mines) in supporting a series of one-week training workshops. This proposed training program will be two, week-long summer school sessions in each of the next two years to help give early career economists and social scientists a solid introduction and grounding on the technical components of the electrical distribution system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Colorado (Pueblo) Regional DAC Hub

Presentation about the Colorado (Pueblo) Regional DAC Hub given to attendees of the 2024 FECM/NETL Carbon Management Research Project Review Meeting.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Feasibility of Adding Twitter Data to Aid Drought Depiction: Case Study in Colorado

The use of social media, such as Twitter, has changed the information landscape for citizens’ participation in crisis response and recovery activities. Given that drought progression is slow and also spatially extensive, an interesting set of questions arise, such as how the usage of Twitter by a large population may change during the development of a major drought alongside how the changing usage facilitates drought detection. For this reason, contemporary analysis of how social media data, in conjunction with meteorological records, was conducted towards improvement in the detection of drought and its progression. The research utilized machine learning techniques applied over satellite-derived drought conditions in Colorado. Three different machine learning techniques were examined: the generalized linear model, support vector machines and deep learning, each applied to test the integration of Twitter data with meteorological records as a predictor of drought development. It is found that the integration of data resources is viable given that the Twitter-based model outperformed the control run which did not include social media input. Eight of the ten models tested showed quantifiable improvements in the performance over the control run model, suggesting that the Twitter-based model was superior in predicting drought severity. Future work lies in expanding this method to depict drought in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for Unraveling the Drivers of Water Shortage across Spatial Scales and Sectors in Colorado's West Slope River Basins

Results from Sunkara et al. submitted to Earth's Future. All code to reproduce the experiment and make the figures can be found here: https://github.com/ssaiveena/Sunkara-etal_2025_WestSlope For a detailed guide to data in this repository, see the README.txt file. Shortage output from .xdd files generated by StateMod was compressed into .parquet files in the Uncertain_scenarios folder. Reservoir output from .xre files can be found in the "Reservoir" directory within the Uncertain_scenarios folder. We adopted the CDSS naming convention: cm = Upper Colorado River Basin gm = Gunnison River Basin ym = Yampa River Basin wm = White River Basin sj = Southwest Basin

Climate Change↗

Alliance for Sustainable Colorado Renovation Raises Its Energy Performance to New Heights, Commercial Building Energy Efficiency (Fact Sheet); Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE)

The Alliance for Sustainable Colorado (The Alliance) is a nonprofit organization aiming to transform sustainability from vision to reality. Part of its mission is to change the operating paradigms of commercial building design to make them more sustainable. Toward that end The Alliance uses its headquarters, The Alliance Center at 1536 Wynkoop Street in Denver, as a living laboratory, conductingpilot studies of innovative commercial-building-design solutions for using and generating energy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Anaerobic Digestion Implementation at Dairies in Colorado

Anaerobic digestion (AD) of animal manure to produce biogas (methane) fuel has a wide variety of environmental benefits to air and water quality in addition to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In addition, the resulting biogas fuel and digestate products can help meet the energy needs and provide revenue to the farm. This case study explores the potential benefits and drawbacks of implementing an AD system at the Aurora Organic Dairy (AOD) High Plains Complex in Gill, Colorado. The project is envisioned as digester located at the AOD Complex with a single feed stream of manure from the Complex. The project would be implemented by a third-party contractor who would build and operate the system and pay the dairy a fraction of the profits, in addition to providing by-products such as digestate solids and liquids for fertilizer.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Projecting Future Colorado River Basin Water and Hydropower Operations

Drought, variable renewable energy (VRE) resources (primarily wind and photovoltaic technologies), and power markets can all impact hydropower plant operations. We analyze how these three factors collectively may potentially change the future operation and economics of federal dams and hydropower plants located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Federal CRB energy and capacity resources, including 4,200 MW of hydropower capacity, are marketed by Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) and sold through long-term Firm Electric Service (FES) contracts to entities located in 15 western and central States that serve millions of electricity consumers. The parameters of FES contracts allow a wide range of scheduling flexibility for FES customers. The FES customers will adjust the timing of energy delivery according to the changing water, power market, and VRE contribution level to the power grid. We simulate and project water and hydropower operations with two models: 1) reservoir operation and 2) power system operation (production cost) with various temporal granularity. We consider two sets of grid scenarios (one representing today's infrastructure, and one representing higher VRE contributions in 2036) and two sets of water scenarios (drought and normal hydrology). We modeled scenarios to understand the power market-energy price levels and patterns, FES customer scheduling, hydropower economics, WAPA finances and hydropower operation for various hydrologic conditions, and VRE contribution level to the power grid. The detailed modeling framework includes: (1) creating ensembles of CRB hydrologic and hydropower futures, (2) selecting representative futures, (3) simulation of FES customer contracts, (4) simulating western U.S. power grid economic scheduling and dispatch under two VRE contribution levels, utilizing information from modeling steps (1)-(4), (5) assessment of reservoir water and hydropower operation, and (6) comparing scenario operations and economics. Our study team comprising WAPA, and an interdisciplinary team of national labs will gain insight into how WAPA can prepare for and adapt its practices in response to an evolving U.S. power grid.

Colorado River↗

Endangered species act impacts on office of legacy management activities at the Rocky Flats, Colorado, Site - 15268

The Endangered Species Act was passed by Congress in 1973 to protect and recover imperiled species and the ecosystems they rely on. The Preble's meadow jumping mouse (Preble's mouse, Zapus hudsonius preblei) was discovered living along the streams at the Rocky Flats Site on the Front Range of Colorado, in the early 1990's during baseline ecological monitoring. In 1998, the Preble's mouse was classified as a federally listed threatened species under the Endangered Species Act. As a result, the mouse and its habitat are protected and Section 7 consultation with the US Fish and Wildlife Service (US FWS) is required before activities may be conducted in Preble's mouse habitat. This requirement has the potential to impact Rocky Flats project schedules and costs since approval from US FWS is needed prior to conducting activities. To reduce the need to consult with US FWS for projects on a case-by-case basis, a programmatic approach was taken. A master list of ongoing activities and other potential future activities was developed and evaluated in a Programmatic Biological Assessment (PBA) that was written for site activities. The PBA that was approved in 2004 worked well during closure, but did not address many ongoing, postclosure US DOE Office of Legacy Management activities. As a result, the PBA was rewritten in 2013 to address postclosure routine and project-specific activities. The use of a programmatic approach has reduced the time and costs associated with getting individual US FWS approvals, which has in turn minimized impacts to schedules. The programmatic approach could prove useful for other US DOE sites with federally listed species. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal hyporheic dynamics control coupled microbiology and geochemistry in Colorado River sediments

Riverbed microbial communities play an oversized role in many watershed ecosystem functions, including the processing of organic carbon, cycling of nitrogen, and alterations to metal mobility. The structure and activity of microbial assemblages depend in part on geochemical conditions set by river-groundwater exchange or hyporheic exchange. In order to assess how seasonal changes in river-groundwater mixing affect these populations in a snowmelt-dominated fluvial system, vertical sediment and pore water profiles were sampled at three time points at one location in the hyporheic zone of the Colorado River and analyzed by using geochemical measurements, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and ecological modeling. Oxic river water penetrated deepest into the subsurface during peak river discharge, while under base flow conditions, anoxic groundwater dominated shallower depths. Over a 70 cm thick interval, riverbed sediments were therefore exposed to seasonally fluctuating redox conditions and hosted microbial populations statistically different from those at both shallower and deeper locations. Additionally, microbial populations within this zone were shown to be the most dynamic across sampling time points, underlining the critical role that hyporheic mixing plays in constraining microbial abundances. Given such mixing effects, we anticipate that future changes in river discharge in mountainous, semiarid western U.S. watersheds may affect microbial community structure and function in riverbed environments, with potential implications for biogeochemical processes in riparian regions.

16S rRNA↗