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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Modeling and Simulation for Effective Protection Strategies

This report was created by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to document the principles and methodology of performance data collection and integration with modeling and simulation tools to better facilitate the performance evaluation of physical protection systems (PPS). Results and conclusions from the use of modeling and simulation tools are only as good as the data employed by the tools when conducting analysis. Acquiring the performance testing data necessary to ensure effective evaluation can be a complex and sometimes daunting process. It is the desire of the organization to provide guidance that eases the burdens associated with pursuit of these objectives. This document draws heavily upon longstanding principles of systems engineering that have been developed and employed by SNL in the discipline of security since the 1970s. The scope of this document is constrained to the testing of system components and integration of data that is applicable within the context of PPS performance analysis using two tools that have been developed by SNL, PathTrace© and Scribe3D©. For guidance related to testing and evaluation more broadly, the manuals and reports referenced by this document can be consulted.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulation of DWPF Chemical Process Cell Using a Reaction Calorimeter

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) converts liquid radioactive waste into glass using a Sludge Receipt Adjustment Tank (SRAT) and Slurry Mix Evaporator (SME) in addition to other processes. The SRAT and SME processes can be simulated on a small-scale using the Mettler-Toledo Reaction Calorimeter (RC1). This equipment is able to automate the execution and monitoring of experiments involving nonradioactive chemical simulants. During the chemical processing of sludge in the SRAT process, foam begins to form and can foam over the reaction vessel. The current antifoam used at DWPF creates a risk of increased flammability and has a limited pH range. Usually, mercury is circulated back into the reaction vessel during the SRAT process, making it difficult to remove. To combat foam over, novel antifoams will be tested during the boil-up process using the RC1. To improve mercury extraction, 3D-printed coalescer columns will be tested within the Mercury Water Wash Tank (MWWT) of the RC1. Testing of Simulant Sludge Batch 6 (SB6) was performed to ensure: the sludge would form a stable foam at boiling during full SRAT/SME runs; the antifoam would reduce the amount of foam within the vessel The sludge and a Precipitate Reactor Feed Tank (PRFT) simulant with monosodium titanate (MST) were mixed separately, combined, and then heated to boiling. As shown below, the antifoam used was able to eliminate the foam within the vessel, as expected. The FormLabs Form2 3D Printer can be used to create roughly 3-inch tall and 1-inch diameter columns from clear and ceramic resins. The columns will utilize chemical and physical forces to draw the mercury out of a condensed offgas stream leaving the RC1 reaction vessel. These columns will be tested during full SRAT/SME runs on the basis of how well they are able to collect elemental mercury. In preparation for full-scale runs, the RC1 equipment was assembled onto a custom table and tested with water runs. The software used to control automation, iControl, has a user-friendly interface that allows the experiment to be altered as needed. An example of the data recorded during an experimental run is represented in Figure 1 below. Water runs were utilized as a way to prove if the RC1 system was functioning in the following areas: Boil-up rates, Chemical additions using pumps, Temperature readings, Balance readings, Probe readings, Offgas system, Agitation. Future Plans: Five novel antifoams will be tested during full SRAT/SME runs. The most effective antifoam will be utilized in DWPF's Chemical Process Cell. The design of the Mercury Extraction Coalescer can be further manipulated to increase the extraction of not only elemental mercury, but other heavy metals in environmental remediation processes as well.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Testing of High S Matrix Glasses to Expand DFHLW Glass Compositional Ranges (Rev.1)

Gaps in glass composition-property data for direct-feed high-level waste (DFHLW) have recently been identified. One such gap is the region of high sulfur solubility since previous, pretreated, high-level wastes contained very little sulfur. Filling this data gap will significantly broaden the range of process flowsheet options including minimal washing and will allow for optimized waste loading in DFHLW glasses. This report summarizes the data collected during the characterization of the DFHLW High S Glass Matrix (HS24). A glass matrix of 50 glass compositions was developed to evenly cover the DFHLW composition region for high sulfur glass. Matrix glasses were designed to expand the composition region outside the current component concentration and property limits so as to reduce uncertainties at the limits. The 50 matrix glasses were fabricated and tested for properties important to the success of DFHLW vitrification including: compositions, canister centerline cooling (CCC) crystallinity and isothermal crystallinity, density, viscosity, electrical conductivity (EC), product consistency test (PCT) response, toxicity, and sulfate solubility. Melter materials corrosion testing is reported elsewhere. These glasses were intentionally designed to have high SO 3 solubilities (0.7 to 2.2 SO 3 wt%) in compositional regions that had not been previously explored. Forty-eight glasses showed the measured SO 3 content retained >80% of the target SO 3 and the densities of all the glasses ranged from 2.49 g·cm -3 to 2.74 g·cm -3 . While the model predicted nepheline formation in 5 glasses, one of the tested 50 CCC glasses formed nepheline, and 35 glasses formed Cr-containing phases such as spinels and eskolaite. Only five glasses were amorphous after CCC treatment where 44 glasses with detectable crystals contained =10 wt% crystals and only one glass had > 10 wt% crystals. None of the glasses exceeded the allowable T 2% for spinel crystal formation at 950 ºC (i.e., no glasses had >2 wt% spinel at 950 ºC) during isothermal crystal fraction tests where 10 glasses showed no crystalline phases at or below 950 ºC. All the glasses (except one which failed being slightly lower than the target) satisfied the SO 3 constraint while 98 glasses did not meet the viscosity constraints and 4 failed the EC constraints. Six quenched (Q) and six CCC glasses failed the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) Environmental Assessment (EA) glass PCT threshold and 3 Q and 4 CCC failed the PCT design constraint. One glass exceeded the WTP delisting limits for Cr via EPA Method 1311 (i.e., Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure, TCLP). It should be emphasized that some of these glasses were specifically designed to approach or even exceed certain property constraints, as filling data gaps in these regions will provide the greatest benefit for future model development by improving accuracy and reducing uncertainties. These insights will ultimately support the development of more robust glass formulation strategies, enabling higher waste loading, reducing operational risks, and expanding the processing envelope.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental Wargaming with SIGNAL

Wargames are a common tool for investigating complex conflict scenarios and have a long history of informing military and strategic study. Historically, these games have often been one-offs, may not rigorously collect data, and have been built primarily for exploration rather than developing data-driven analytical conclusions. Experimental wargaming, a new wargaming approach that employs the basic principles of experimental design to facilitate an objective basis for exploring fundamental research questions around human behavior (such as understanding conflict escalation), is a potential tool that can be used in combination with existing wargaming approaches. The Project on Nuclear Gaming, a consortium involving the University of California, Berkeley, Sandia National Laboratories, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, developed an experimental wargame, SIGNAL, to explore questions surrounding conflict escalation and strategic stability in the nuclear context. To date, the SIGNAL experimental wargame has been played hundreds of times by thousands of players from around the world, creating the largest database of wargame data for academic purposes known to the authors. Here, this paper discusses the design of SIGNAL, focusing on how the principles of experimental design influenced this design.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Land of Opportunity: Potential for Renewable Energy on Federal Lands

Renewable energy (RE) in the United States has historically been deployed primarily on private lands, but the growing interest in RE development, generally across the country and specifically on federal lands, raises questions about the potential for RE on public lands. This study seeks to estimate RE technical potential on federal lands and project the amount of RE to be developed on federal lands under decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States. The study applied a combination of high-resolution geospatial analysis and power sector modeling and relied on multiple partner federal agencies and land administrators from the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Department of Energy. In our reference siting access case, we estimate 44 million acres of federal land across the contiguous United States is potentially suitable for UPV development, which corresponds to a capacity technical potential of 5,750 gigawatts (GW) (Figure ES-1). Federal land area available for wind development is similar to UPV but wind’s generating capacity technical potential is lower (875 GW). The technical potential is estimated for two geothermal technologies, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), both of which have a smaller amount of federal land available for development (12 and 27 million acres, respectively). However, in terms of capacity, the technical potential for EGS (975 GW) is approximately equal to wind’s technical potential and there is an estimated 130 GW of hydrothermal potential. We also developed cases with more-limited land available for UPV and wind (for federal and non-federal lands) resulting in 96% reduction of wind capacity potential and 70% reduction for UPV. In a case with additional constraints applied to non-federal lands only (Limited Private), the overall (federal and non-federal) technical potential declines but the share of that technical potential on federal lands is higher than in the other siting cases. The technical potential is the maximum amount that could be developed, but only a small fraction would be developed or needed in the future. Across seven scenarios that achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, we estimate 26 GW to 270 GW of RE capacity could be deployed on federal lands by 2035. The three central scenarios have 51–84 GW of RE deployed by 2035 and requiring about 500,000 to 1,000,000 acres of total land area. Direct land consumption is less than total land use required, thus enabling co-use opportunities. The large technical potential estimates and the increasing deployment projections from the collection of scenarios show the opportunities for RE development on federal lands. Capturing these opportunities-while minimizing conflicts with other land uses, federal department or agency missions, and public interest, and simultaneously maximizing the economic, grid, and social value of the projects-would require collaborative planning among federal land administrators, grid planners, project developers, the public, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Storage in Long-Term System Models: A Review of Considerations, Best Practices, and Research Needs

Technological change and policy support have heightened expectations for the role of energy storage in power systems, creating a need to enhance representations of energy storage in long-term models to inform decision-making. Energy storage technologies have complex and diverse cost, value, and performance characteristics that make them challenging to model, but there is limited guidance about best practices and research gaps for energy storage analysis. This paper reviews the literature and draws upon our collective experience to provide recommendations to analysts on approaches for representing energy storage in long-term electric sector models, navigating tradeoffs in model development, and identifying research gaps for existing tools and data. The review focuses on national-scale models with technological, temporal, and regional detail given their prevalence in planning and policy, though many insights are transferable to other modeling contexts. It also offers guidance to consumers of model outputs on proper use and interpretation based on model strengths and limitations. In particular, this review demonstrates the importance of capturing how the values of energy storage and other resources change as the system composition changes (e.g. with different levels of storage, renewables deployment, and emissions outcomes). These considerations require model detail like high spatiotemporal resolutions and endogenous investments that global integrated assessment models and price-taker frameworks do not typically resolve. Research gaps include linking tools of different resolutions, developing reduced-form representations of value streams, incorporating hybrid energy storage and renewable systems, and representing longer-duration energy storage technologies.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatially-Resolved Characterization Techniques and Their Implications for Nuclear Debris Formation.

Debris from nuclear tests has a complex formation process and can inform multiple fields of study such as geology, atmospheric science, shock physics, and chemistry under extreme conditions. Macroscopic nuclear debris forms as the result of fireball interaction with surrounding materials (e.g., structural and environmental component), which rapidly undergo melting and vaporization followed by condensation, convective/diffusive mixing, and solidification over the course of seconds. In atmospheric events, some of this material may disperse over long distances, but much of the material is deposited close-in to ground zero, often in multicomponent, partially (or entirely) amorphous debris formations. During the U.S. nuclear testing program, this material was collected and analyzed, particularly for radionuclide composition. Fallout formation models were developed from nuclear test data based on such radionuclide compositional analyses. These models were not just used to understand fallout dispersion (i.e. the spread of radioactivity over geographical regions) but also guide radiochemical interpretations of historical nuclear tests.6 Developments in analytical techniques over the past several decades have made it possible to make new analyses on historical debris, some of which may be more than a half-century old. For example, inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) has been used to look at the trace elements in glassy fallout material from aboveground nuclear tests (including the Trinity test). Advanced analyses using X-ray absorption allowed for the measurement of oxidation state of fallout constituents, including actinides. The ability to measure trace actinides and their subsequent oxidation state is important to understanding how the surrounding environment may have influenced the resultant fallout composition and may have implications for why certain fractionation trends have been observed. Here we present data from historic nuclear test debris illustrating the power of spatially resolved methods to connect interaction of the near-field environment with the explosion and provide new insights into nuclear debris formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Analyses of Sparse Seismoacoustic Data Reveals the Timing and Size of the Accurate Energetic Systems Explosion

On 10 October 2025 an explosion occurred at a facility operated by Accurate Energetic Systems in Humphreys County, Tennessee. The incident resulted in 16 fatalities and created a debris field over several square kilometers. To address remaining questions about explosion timing and size, we collected about 20 seismic and 19 acoustic records of the blast from sensors up to hundreds of kilometers away. We then deployed 10 distinct physics-based, reduced order models (ROMs) that used validated geological structure and atmospheric conditions from the time of the event, along with observations of body- and surface-wave energy, as well as acoustic overpressure and phase duration. Each ROM predicted either timing, yield estimates, or both. We binned these estimates and their uncertainties according to each ROMs’ assumptions about confinement (aboveground, buried fully coupled, and buried partially coupled) and combined these estimates with other forensic data to conclude that the event occurred as a single, aboveground explosion on 10 December 2025 12:47:50.8 ±0.1 s with a yield equivalent to 11.8 [2.3,16.5] tons of Trinitrotoluene. Our estimates align with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives inventory reports of 11–13 tons. This multimethod approach demonstrates the use of remotely observed geophysical data to rapidly aid conventional forensic investigations of accidental explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technical Evaluation of Accelerated Basin De-Inventory Material Addition to Sludge Batch 11 (Rev. 1)

The Accelerated Basin De-inventory (ABD) program involves discarding spent nuclear fuel that is currently stored in L-Basin to the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) for vitrification. The first ABD discards will occur during the preparation of Sludge Batch (SB) 11. Savannah River Mission Completion has requested that the Savannah River National Laboratory assess the technical gaps related to the increased gadolinium poisoning requirement and the impacts of performing the Low Temperature Aluminum Dissolution (LTAD) process in Tank 51 with H-Canyon discards present. The following summarizes the evaluation of the impacts of increasing the quantity of gadolinium (and related topics) from what was previously evaluated in the SRNL studies of gadolinium-poisoned ABD material solubility, the overall ABD flowsheet review, and increasing the fissile mass loading in glass: 1) Based on literature surveys, there is no indication that organic interactions with gadolinium will be significant at the high pH (typically >13) conditions of the Concentration, Storage, and Transfer Facilities. Any interactions of gadolinium with organics in DWPF are not expected to adversely impact DWPF or downstream facilities. Thus, there is little-to-no residual risk from organic interactions with gadolinium [Gap closed]; 2) Adding depleted uranium to ABD material, targeting 235 U enrichment of 4.90% within each transfer window, will mitigate potential impacts from an increase in soluble 235 U enrichment during sludge washing and LTAD. The plan to take advantage of previous transfers and allow 235 U enrichment of >5% during the final transfer window carries a risk that Tank 51 supernate will have a 235 U enrichment of >5%, which should be evaluated for acceptance; 3) Increasing the gadolinium mass ratio to 3.0:1 Gd: 235 U(eq SLU ) should lead to the same or higher partitioning of gadolinium into the solid phase within the DWPF Chemical Process Cell, resulting in both liquid and solid phases with expected partitioning of Gd consistent with the prior solubility study [Gap closed for SB11]; 4) There are no expected impacts on DWPF melt temperature and melter operations due to the minimal ~0.2 weight percent (wt%) increase in Gd concentration relative to previous sludge batches [Gap closed for SB11]; 5) As observed previously, Gd is expected to enter the off-gas system via physical entrainment, but at a slightly higher concentration than what was observed for SB9 melter off-gas pluggage deposits (0.07 wt%) [Gap closed for SB11] ; 6) There are no expected impacts on DWPF recycle or the Recycle Collection Tank glycolate destruction process. [Gap closed for SB11]; 7) Gd is projected to be a trace component in the SB11 glass (<0.5 wt%) and can be ignored for process control. Trace components do not significantly impact glass durability, thus the conclusions of the previous Product Consistency Test evaluation at a fissile mass loading of 2,500 g fissile/m3 glass still applies to SB11. The ~0.1 wt% increase in Gd2O3 concentration relative to the previous study will not impact the predictability of SB11 glass with the DWPF Product Composition Control System (PCCS) models for durability or the acceptability of glass according to the Waste Acceptance Product Specifications (WAPS) criterion for product consistency [Gap closed for SB11]; 8) No additional Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure testing is necessary for SB11 and the hazardous waste specification of the SB11 DWPF waste form is unchanged after the addition of the ABD stream [Gap closed for SB11]. The following summarizes the evaluation of the impacts of adding two-thirds of the ABD material to Tank 51 prior to LTAD: 1) The addition of two-thirds of the ABD increases overall aluminum mass from 1.39×10 4 kg to 1.64×10 4 kg (15.5% ABD Al). The form of the insoluble portion of the Al resulting from ABD addition should be the more readily dissolved Al(OH) 3 and amorphous forms. The portion of the ABD aluminum that is processed by LTAD is expected to be completely soluble, thus requiring that less of the boehmite in the sludge be dissolved to reach the same Al target in the SB. [Gap closed for SB11]; The expected LTAD impact on other components, as related primarily to the components in ABD, are discussed. Gd is expected to remain insoluble during LTAD and not impact the solubility of other components. [Gap closed for SB11]; The addition of two-thirds of the ABD increases overall projected SB11 uranium mass from 4,740 kg to 13,100 kg (63% ABD U) and the projected plutonium mass from 86.0 kg to 89.5 kg (3.9% ABD Pu). The addition of all of the ABD increases overall projected SB11 uranium mass from 4,740 kg to 16,100 kg (70% ABD U) and the projected plutonium mass from 86.0 kg to 90.4 kg (5.3% ABD Pu). The 235 U enrichment will be ≤5%. The fissile uranium will be adequately poisoned by Gd and the fissile Pu will be adequately poisoned by Fe from the sludge. [Gap closed for SB11]; There is a low risk that ABD addition will impact the rheology or pumpability of the slurry. There is a low but higher risk of ABD addition prior to LTAD impacting the settling rate; Based on the evaluation of adding two-thirds of the ABD material and all of the ABD material prior to the LTAD process, there is no volume or mass limit that would need to be imposed on ABD additions prior to LTAD. [Gap closed for SB11]. Revision 1 of this report addresses a variation on the ABD additions and LTAD strategy where sodium hydroxide additions for LTAD may be performed intermittently or concurrently with an ABD addition window. The proposed change does not alter the conclusions of this evaluation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Survey of Thirteen Novel Pseudomonas putida Bacteriophages

Bacteriophages have been widely investigated as a promising treatment of food, medical equipment, and humans colonized by antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Phages pose particular interest in combating those bacteria which form biofilms, such as the medically important human pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa and several plant pathogens, including P. syringae . In an undergraduate lab course, P. putida was used as the host to isolate novel anti-pseudomonal bacteriophages. Environmental samples of soil and water were collected, and purified phage isolates were obtained. After Illumina sequencing, genomes of these phages were assembled de novo and annotated. Assembled genomes were compared with known genomes in the literature and GenBank to identify taxonomic relations and to refine their functional annotations. The thirteen phages described are sipho-, myo-, and podoviruses in several families of Caudoviricetes , spanning several novel genera, with genomes ranging from 40,000 to 96,000 bp. One phage (DDSR119) is unique and is the first reported P. putida siphovirus. The remaining 12 can be clustered into four distinct groups. Six are highly related to each other and to previously described Autotranscriptaviridae phages: Waldo5, PlaquesPlease, and Laces98 all belong to the Waldovirus genus, whereas Stalingrad, Bosely, and Stamos belong to the Troedvirus genus. Zuri was previously classified as the founding member of a new genus Zurivirus within the family Schitoviridae . Ebordelon and Holyagarpour each represent different species within Zurivirus , whereas Meara is a more distantly related member of the Schitoviridae . Dolphis and Jeremy are similar enough to form a genus but have only a few distant relatives among sequenced phages and are notable for being temperate. We identified the lysis cassettes in all 13 phages, compared tail spike structures, and found auxiliary metabolic genes in several. Studies like these, which isolate and characterize infectious virions, enable the identification of novel proteins and molecular systems and also provide the raw materials for further study, evaluation, and manipulation of phage proteins and their hosts.

Pseudomonas putida↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explosive Soot Challenge (Final Report)

This project assembled a broad ensemble of modeling and experimentation tools to study the morphological and optical properties of detonation soots in explosive fireballs. A gram-scale hemispherical high explosive was studied in a low-pressure controlled environment using in-situ experimentation with diffusely illuminated visible absorption spectroscopy, particle sizing through light scattering techniques, and post-test collections with subsequent morphological analysis. Hydrocode modeling was performed to replicate the detonation flow observations, and subsequent aerosol kinetics models provided particle size distributions and extinction coefficients from the hydrocode results. Experimentally observed soot morphologies agreed with expectation from the literature - a bimodal distribution was found, brought upon by the particles growing to a size where their inertia and fluid wakes are non-negligible. The aerosol kinetics model did not replicate the observed bimodal size distribution for lack of a coagulation kernel to represent the behavior. To recover particulate optical properties, a spectrally resolved absorption spectroscopy method termed Spectral diffuse back-illuminated extinction imaging (SBI-EI) was developed and implemented on two explosive types. Inverting the absorption spectra using a Kramers-Kronig consistent method yielded the complex index of refraction for the soots produced by the explosives. This method resulted in an unrealistic index of refraction for one of the two explosives, and this is suspected to be due to the model neglecting scattering brought upon by the large particle sizes observed. In addition to the core work, three additional studies were performed in parallel. These investigated the impact of scattering on diffuse absorption spectroscopy, studied how soots oxidate and sublimate in a well-controlled shock tube, and laid the theoretical groundwork for a new collision kernel to replicate the bimodal size distribution from the observations. Summaries of these efforts are included at the end of this report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stakeholder-Engaged Structured Decision Making for the Los Alamos Legacy Cleanup Mission - 20501

The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) environmental legacy cleanup program requires decisions to be made for environmental remediation, decommissioning and disposal or management of radioactive waste. This legacy cleanup program was established to address groundwater contamination, material disposal areas (MDAs) that have been used to dispose of radioactive and other waste material, and 'aggregate areas' that might produce radioactive or other chemical waste as a result of remediation activities. The LANL site is regulated for environmental concerns under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). However, some parts of LANL, such as material disposal area G (MDA G), have disposed of radioactive waste under DOE Order 435.1, and are subject to other regulations. For example, decommissioning the remote-handled TRU material stored in 33 shafts at MDA G falls under EPA's 40 CFR 191. Collectively, the regulations are all aimed in the same direction of finding the best solution, either through constructs such as 'as low as reasonably achievable' (ALARA), considering balancing factors as opposed to only cost and human health risk, and, under EPA regulations such as RCRA and NEPA, evaluating impact from all chemicals and both human health and ecological endpoints. Despite the basic goals and objectives of the regulations or their guidance, the main challenge is in their implementation. Arguably perhaps, but really in principle, all of these (and similar) regulations are asking for a decision analysis to be performed. Implementation challenges encountered have included lack of understanding of decision analysis in the industry, lack of effective stakeholder engagement in the decision analysis process, and lack of appreciation of the need to separate value judgments from science, the latter leading to developing conservative, or protective, science-based models. Conservative models lead to poor solutions, lack of effective stakeholder engagement leads to long drawn out protracted approaches to finding a solution (which also might never be found with this approach), and lack of understanding of decision analysis and Bayesian statistics causes poor models to be built, which creates unfortunate situations of 'garbage in, garbage out' becoming the basis for decision making. Stakeholder-engaged structured decision making (SDM) is an approach to solving problems that relies on the theory of decision science to involve stakeholders in the decision-making process. This approach incorporates stakeholder values using a scientifically rigorous methodology that separates value judgments from science in a way that helps avoid the pitfalls of biased, protective, or conservative modeling. This approach has its foundation in Keeney's 1992 treatise on value-focused thinking [1]. Keeney advocated a paradigm shift in decision making based on the idea that the standard way of thinking about decisions is backwards. The standard approach of focusing first on identifying alternatives rather than on articulating values results in a reactive approach with the emphasis on mechanics and fixed choices instead of the core values that have meaning to stakeholders. This paradigm shift effectively engages all stakeholders in the decision-making process while using a values focused thinking approach that can lead to the identification of decision opportunities and the creation of better alternatives. The intent is to be proactive and generate solutions that are related directly to values and objectives as identified by stakeholders. There are, perhaps, two overarching reasons why SDM can be used to benefit LANL's environmental legacy cleanup. Some of LANL's remaining waste management and environmental management problems are challenging and complex (for example, the Cr and RDX plumes, and MDAs) and while the traditional approach has, arguably, worked well for relatively simple risk-based problems, it cannot, or should not, be applied to more complex problems if the most effective and efficient solutions are desired. The second reason is cost. This has perhaps become more critical since publication of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reports that DoE's environmental liability is considered a high-risk concern for the nation [2]. The focus of SDM is on structuring solutions to decision risk problems by first addressing stakeholder and decision maker values and subsequently developing decision objectives and ways to measure those objectives, preference weighting across objectives, identifying decision alternatives that best achieve those values, and characterizing uncertainty in predictions of the measures. Because a complete decision model is created using SDM, it can be evaluated to find the main elements of the model that drive, or predict, the best solution. This approach creates complete decision models that are transparent, traceable, reproducible and technically defensible. The science behind SDM, or decision analysis, is well founded, yet it is not unusual to see ad hoc approaches to decision making implemented under various environmental regulations that are pertinent to the LANL site, including NEPA, RCRA and DOE Order 435.1. Such ad hoc approaches are often not transparent or traceable, and lack reproducibility and technical defensibility. The LANL legacy cleanup program has embarked on using SDM to address the complex problems that remain. Stakeholder meetings have been held, and a prototype version of the stakeholder value system has been developed. Further meetings are expected in the future to address specific project needs. This is a long-term endeavor considering the complex environmental problems faced by DOE EM in Los Alamos (EM-LA), and careful planning, consideration of stakeholder value systems, and engagement with stakeholders throughout the SDM process is expected to lead to a successful endpoint. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparisons of the v11.1 Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) X CO2 Measurements With GGG2020 TCCON

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) is NASA's first Earth observation satellite mission dedicated to studying the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on a global scale. The observations of reflected sunlight are inverted in a retrieval algorithm to produce estimates of the dry air mole-fractions of CO 2 (X CO2 ). The OCO-2 Level 2 data release, version 11.1 (v11.1) retrievals from the Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space (ACOS) algorithm, includes significant improvements in the X CO2 data product compared to older OCO-2 data versions. This work compares the v11.1 X CO2 from OCO-2 against X CO2 estimates collected from a global ground-based network known as the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), OCO-2's primary validation source. The OCO-2 project provides a version of the Level 2 data product, called “lite” files that include calibrated and bias-corrected XCO2 values, accessible together with all OCO-2 data products through the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). This work shows that OCO-2 X CO2 observations made between September 2014 and December 2023, after quality filtering and the application of an averaging kernel correction, agree well with coincident TCCON data for all OCO-2 observational modes of land (nadir, glint, target) and ocean (glint). The aggregated, bias-corrected, and quality-filtered absolute average bias values are less than or equal to 0.20 parts per million (ppm) globally for all OCO-2 observation modes, where the biases do not indicate a statistically significant time dependence. The land nadir/glint mode has the lowest bias value of −0.03 ± 0.85 ppm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗