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At least 163 records · Page 9

Multiscale Land-Atmosphere Interaction in Tropical Ecosystems

A leading source of uncertainty in the magnitude of future climate change arises from feedback between the physical climate system and the carbon cycle. Output from 15 Earth System Models (ESMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) shows that when forced by identical emissions, predicted atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in 2100 ranged from 780 ppm to 1120 ppm due to variations in carbon cycle feedback among the models. The resulting difference in radiative forcing of climate is almost 2 W m -2 , comparable to the total uncertainty in the physical climate system for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario in 2100. Scaling future carbon sources and sinks to match contemporary atmospheric CO 2 reduced this uncertainty by a factor of five, suggesting that contemporary observations might dramatically constrain future predictions, but their scaling had no mechanistic basis, so it provides little insight on carbon cycle processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The interplay of labile organic carbon, enzyme activities and microbial communities of two forest soils across seasons

Soil labile organic carbon (LOC) responds rapidly to environmental changes and plays an important role in carbon cycle. In this study, the seasonal fluctuations in LOC, the activities of carbon-cycle related enzymes, and the bacterial and fungal communities were analyzed for soils collected from two forests, namely Betula albosinensis (Ba) and Picea asperata Mast. (Pa), in the Qinling Mountains of China. Results revealed that the seasonal average contents of microbial biomass carbon (MBC), easily oxidized organic carbon (EOC), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) of Pa forest soil were 13.5%, 30.0% and 15.7% less than those in Ba soil. The seasonal average enzyme activities of β-1,4-glucosidase (βG), and β-1,4-xylosidase (βX) of Ba forest soils were 30.0% and 32.3% higher than those of Pa soil while the enzyme activity of cellobiohydrolase (CBH) was 19.7% lower. Furthermore, the relative abundance of Acidobacteria was significantly higher in summer than in winter, whereas the relative abundance of Bacteroidetes was higher in winter. Regarding the fungal communities, the relative abundance of Basidiomycota was lowest in winter, whereas Ascomycota predominated in the same season. In addition, the soil LOC was significantly positively correlated with the CBH, βG and βX activities. Changes in LOC were significantly correlated with Acidobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Basidiomycota. We conclude that the seasonal fluctuations in forest soil LOC fractions relied on carbon cycle-associated enzymatic activities and microorganisms, which in turn were affected by climatic conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coupled deep-mantle carbon-water cycle: Evidence from lower-mantle diamonds

Diamonds form in a variety of environments between subducted crust, lithospheric and deep mantle. Recently, deep source diamonds with inclusions of the high-pressure H 2 O-phase ice-VII were discovered. By correlating the pressures of ice-VII inclusions with those of other high-pressure inclusions, we assess quantitatively the pressures and temperatures of their entrapment. We show that the ice-VII-bearing diamonds formed at depths down to 800 ± 60 km but at temperatures 200–500 K below average mantle temperature that match the pressure-temperature conditions of decomposing dense hydrous mantle silicates. Furthermore, our work presents strong evidence for coupled recycling of water and carbon in the deep mantle based on natural samples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Wetlands harbor lactic acid-driven chain elongators

Wetlands are globally significant carbon storage hotspots. Recent research has suggested that microbially derived metabolites may contribute to soil organic matter formation. Identifying pathways driving the formation of such metabolites is critical to understand the global impact of wetland carbon cycling. Here, we evaluate the presence of chain-elongating organisms converting two to three carbon compounds (i.e., lactic and acetic acid) to medium-chain carboxylic acids (MCCA; i.e., six-carbon caproic acid) in wetland soils. We demonstrate the enrichment of a lactic acid-driven chain-elongating community from wetland soils producing a mixture of butyric and caproic acid. The enriched community was dominated by Clostridiaceae, Ruminococcaceae, and Lachnospiraceae, three families with known chain elongators. Amplicon sequencing identified three Ruminococcaceae and one Clostridiaceae zero-radius OTU (zOTU) that were (i) present in the soil, (ii) enriched over 1% relative abundance in the bioreactor, and (iii) were closely related to known chain elongators. Moreover, close relatives of the three Ruminococcaceae zOTU were also observed in several other wetland microbiomes. From this observation, we conclude that close relatives of known chain elongators, potentially capable of lactic acid-driven MCCA production themselves, are present in wetland soils. This observation may have implications for our understanding of carbon cycling and storage in wetland ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Carbon Dioxide Refinery: The Core of a Sustainable Carbon-based Circular Economy

The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) accumulation (2–2.5 ppmv/year) is the result of the enormous gap between its emissions (37 Gton/year) and its capture, storage, and utilization (<500 Mton/year). Climate has been dramatically affected due to the failure of natural sinks, in working effectively. To address this Gton-scale gap, numerous uses and applications are needed particularly, those consuming vast volumes of this compound and/or rendering longevous products or long lifecycle services. Thus, carbon utilization (CU) can be seen as the step to close the carbon cycle. Among CU, R&D on CO 2 chemical conversion has proposed a variety of processes, with different degrees of developmental maturity. These chemical process technologies could be efficiently and effectively integrated into refineries to upgrade emitted CO 2 . A technology pipeline consisting of a database of these processes and the technology market status should be defined based on published scientific results and patents. Then, an innovative top-down methodology is proposed to eco-design configurations of that refinery, to warrant a sustainable carbon cycle (in terms of energy, environment, and economy) and to change the ways of producing fuels, chemicals, and materials. Additionally, the proposed methodology could be used to identify research and development gaps and needs, for orienting science and technology investments and measures. Hopefully, sustainable CO 2 refineries will be implemented to close the carbon cycle of a circular C-based economy and underpin a decarbonized chemical industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A framework for testing soil carbon dynamics post land-use transition in a multisector dynamics model

Soil carbon plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Changes in land use can determine whether carbon is stored or is emitted into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, which has broad implications for the human and Earth systems. These feedbacks to the carbon cycle and their socio-economic drivers are modelled by many global multisector dynamics models to project future possibilities for the human-Earth system. One notable model of this class is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which uses a simplified process to model soil organic carbon (SOC) content after land-use transition across 384 land units. While the current GCAM soil carbon framework is based on scientific principles, it has not been tested against experimental data. This work examines rates of SOC change from GCAM input data. Specifically, first order rate constants derived from model inputs were compared to values from two syntheses to assess GCAM’s accuracy. Welch’s t-tests and linear models were used to determine if rate constants were consistent across all tested geographical areas and land-use transition types. While we found that there was general agreement on the direction and magnitude (i.e., rate) of SOC change, the rate constant derived from GCAM and empirical values differed strongly in a subset of specific instances. These results indicate that GCAM’s current SOC dynamics during land use transition successfully capture broad patterns of change in this critical carbon pool, but should be interpreted with caution at finer spatial scales. One potential cause of these discrepancies is our highly aggregated variable, soil timescale, which could be made more granular to improve accuracy. When using economically rooted multisector dynamics models, such as GCAM, it is critical to understand such model limitations for representing specific Earth system processes.

carbon↗

Autonomous measurements of carbon dioxide uptake in a blue carbon habitat

A better understanding of carbon cycling dynamics in coastal ecosystems is critical to quantify “blue carbon” storage. However, obtaining the necessary measurements is complicated due to the dynamic conditions that characterize these ecosystems, and requires both spatially and temporally resolved measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations and complementary water quality parameters. In this study, we evaluate the use of a utility-class autonomous surface vehicle as a platform for measuring carbon dioxide dynamics in a shallow, intertidal, blue carbon ecosystem. We integrated a carbon dioxide sensor, a water quality sonde, and hydroacoustic sensors with an autonomous surface vehicle and performed measurements in and around a meadow of Zostera marina eelgrass. Results demonstrate the utility of this system to provide insight into complex carbon cycling dynamics in and around a shallow, intertidal blue carbon habitat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Virus ecology and 7‐year temporal dynamics across a permafrost thaw gradient

Abstract Soil microorganisms are pivotal in the global carbon cycle, but the viruses that affect them and their impact on ecosystems are less understood. In this study, we explored the diversity, dynamics, and ecology of soil viruses through 379 metagenomes collected annually from 2010 to 2017. These samples spanned the seasonally thawed active layer of a permafrost thaw gradient, which included palsa, bog, and fen habitats. We identified 5051 virus operational taxonomic units (vOTUs), doubling the known viruses for this site. These vOTUs were largely ephemeral within habitats, suggesting a turnover at the vOTU level from year to year. While the diversity varied by thaw stage and depth‐related patterns were specific to each habitat, the virus communities did not significantly change over time. The abundance ratios of virus to host at the phylum level did not show consistent trends across the thaw gradient, depth, or time. To assess potential ecosystem impacts, we predicted hosts in silico and found viruses linked to microbial lineages involved in the carbon cycle, such as methanotrophy and methanogenesis. This included the identification of viruses of Candidatus Methanoflorens, a significant global methane contributor. We also detected a variety of potential auxiliary metabolic genes, including 24 carbon‐degrading glycoside hydrolases, six of which are uniquely terrestrial. In conclusion, these long‐term observations enhance our understanding of soil viruses in the context of climate‐relevant processes and provide opportunities to explore their role in terrestrial carbon cycling.

Microbiology↗

Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating the Importance of Viral Contributions to Soil Carbon Dynamics

ABSTRACT Biogeochemical models for predicting carbon dynamics increasingly include microbial processes, reflecting the importance of microorganisms in regulating the movement of carbon between soils and the atmosphere. Soil viruses can redirect carbon among various chemical pools, indicating a need for quantification and development soil carbon models that explicitly represent viral dynamics. In this opinion, we derive a global estimate of carbon potentially released from microbial biomass by viral infections in soils and synthesize a quantitative soil carbon budget from existing literature that explicitly includes viral impacts. We then adapt known mechanisms by which viruses influence carbon cycles in marine ecosystems into a soil‐explicit framework. Finally, we explore the diversity of virus–host interactions during infection and conceptualize how infection mode may impact soil carbon fate. Our synthesis highlights key knowledge gaps hindering the incorporation of viruses into soil carbon cycling research and generates specific hypotheses to test in the pursuit of better quantifying microbial dynamics that explain ecosystem‐scale carbon fluxes. The importance of identifying critical drivers behind soil carbon dynamics, including these elusive but likely pervasive viral mechanisms of carbon redistribution, becomes more pressing with climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A restructured and updated global soil respiration database (SRDB-V5)

Field-measured soil respiration (R S , the soil-to-atmosphere CO 2 flux) observations were compiled into a global soil respiration database (SRDB) a decade ago, a resource that has been widely used by the biogeochemistry community to advance our understanding of R S dynamics. Novel carbon cycle science questions require updated and augmented global information with better interoperability among datasets. Here, we restructured and updated the global R S database to version SRDB-V5. The updated version has all previous fields revised for consistency and simplicity, and it has several new fields to include ancillary information (e.g., R S measurement time, collar insertion depth, collar area). The new SRDB-V5 includes published papers through 2017 (800 independent studies), where total observations increased from 6633 in SRDB-V4 to 10 366 in SRDB-V5. The SRDB-V5 features more R S data published in the Russian and Chinese scientific literature and has an improved global spatio-temporal coverage and improved global climate space representation. We also restructured the database so that it has stronger interoperability with other datasets related to carbon cycle science. For instance, linking SRDB-V5 with an hourly timescale global soil respiration database (HGRsD) and a community database for continuous soil respiration (COSORE) enables researchers to explore new questions. The updated SRDB-V5 aims to be a data framework for the scientific community to share seasonal to annual field R S measurements, and it provides opportunities for the biogeochemistry community to better understand the spatial and temporal variability in R S , its components, and the overall carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Circular Bioeconomy Concepts—A Perspective

Circular economy concepts—including a circular bioeconomy—aim to transition the current, essentially linear, economic system to a more sustainable one. However, organizations and researchers currently define the circular economy concept differently, resulting in inconsistencies and difficulty in effectively implementing the framework. In this paper, we provide our perspective on the conceptual definitions of the circular economy, bioeconomy, and circular bioeconomy, outlining potential overlaps and differences and proposing a harmonized interpretation that stresses the importance of the carbon cycle. We conclude that the key goal of a circular economy is to slow, narrow, and close material resource loops, built on the foundation of renewable energy and non-toxic materials. Further, a sustainable bioeconomy goes beyond simply switching fossil resources with renewable, biological resources. It requires low-carbon energy inputs, sustainable supply chains, and promising disruptive conversion technologies for the sustainable transformation of renewable bioresources to high-value bio-based products, materials, and fuels. The bio-based circular carbon economy, in particular, stresses capturing atmospheric carbon via photosynthesis and exploiting this unique feature to the fullest extent possible. It sits at the intersection between the circular economy and the bioeconomy concept, resulting in a framework that focuses on closing the carbon cycle and stressing the opportunity to create an additional carbon sink capability in the technosphere by utilizing biogenic carbon for products and materials that are circulated in same or improved use cycles. Lastly, a sustainable circular bioeconomy transition will necessitate a set of consistent metrics that fit all products and industries.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem fires and biomass burning-induced carbon emissions in China over the past two decades

Fire is a major type of disturbance that has important influences on ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycles. Yet our understanding of ecosystem fires and their carbon cycle consequences is still limited, largely due to the difficulty of large-scale fire monitoring and the complex interactions between fire, vegetation, climate, and anthropogenic factors. Here, using data from satellite-derived fire observations and ecosystem model simulations, we performed a comprehensive investigation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of China's ecosystem fire disturbances and their carbon emissions over the past two decades (1997–2016). Satellite-derived results showed that on average about 3.47 - 4.53 x 10 4 km 2 of the land was burned annually during the past two decades, among which annual burned forest area was about 0.81 - 1.25 × 10 4 km 2 , accounting for 0.33-0.51% of the forest area in China. Biomass burning emitted about 23.02 TgC per year. Compared to satellite products, simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model (ELM) strongly overestimated China's burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions. Annual burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions were high for boreal forest in Northeast China's Daxing'anling region and subtropical dry forest in South Yunnan, as revealed by both the satellite product and the model simulations. Our results suggest that climate and anthropogenic factors play critical roles in controlling the spatial and seasonal distribution of China's ecosystem fire disturbances. Our findings highlight the importance of multiple complementary approaches in assessing ecosystem fire disturbance and its carbon consequences. Further studies are required to improve the methods of observing and modelling China's ecosystem fire disturbances, which will provide valuable information for fire management and ecosystem sustainability in an era when both human activities and the natural environment are rapidly changing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deployment Feasibility Futures Analysis of Natural Gas Combined Cycle with Carbon Capture in Five U.S. Regions

A broad suite of technologies will be required to enable the United States to meet the current goal of a zero-carbon power sector by 2035, while continuing to provide the U.S. consumer with reliable, secure, stable, and affordable electricity. This study was conducted to evaluate the competitiveness of a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) with carbon capture and storage (CCS) in five independent system operating areas, the PJM interconnection (PJM) regional transmission organization, Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), Western Electricity Coordinating Council’s (WECC) Northwest Power Pool (NWPP) region, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC) in the 2030 to 2035 time horizon. The modeling and simulation efforts focused on determining the dispatch characteristics and the economic feasibility of constructing an NGCC plant with CCS in each of those regions. The analysis indicates that a NGCC system with CCS can be economically viable in the ERCOT and PJM regions. Additional revenue stream and/or capacity payments are required in MISO, NWPP, and SERC to enable successful commercial deployment of a NGCC with CCS.

Pickenpaugh, Gavin↗

Carbon footprint prediction considering the evolution of alternative fuels and cargo: A case study of Yangtze river ships

For reducing carbon emissions in the shipping sector, application of alternative low-carbon and zero-carbon fuels is the consensus. However, requirements of economic development cannot be ignored while focusing on emission reduction. Cargo development is an important prerequisite. Considering the cargo growth as a novelty, a method to calculate the annual carbon emissions of different alternative fuel-powered ships in different cargo growth prospects and power scenarios is proposed. With respect to the time dimension, the relationship between alternative fuels, cargo, and carbon reduction is revealed. The Yangtze River bulk carrier case was studied and the life cycle carbon emission analysis of diesel, LNG hybrid, LNG, hydrogen, methanol, and ammonia were carried out. The annual carbon curves of the high, steady, and low cargo growth prospects were obtained for different scenarios of the power system structure. The results show that LNG hybrid, LNG and methanol fuels are currently the suitable choices. Their life cycle carbon emissions were reduced by 31.5–38.1% compared with those of diesel power. The carbon emissions of green hydrogen and green ammonia were reduced by 78.8% and 91.3%, respectively, compared with those of hydrogen and ammonia. The carbon reduction results of green fuels in their initial application were explored which are at 0.6–10.8%. In addition, there is a balanced annual growth rate, whose annual carbon curve will be steady under its corresponding scenario of power system structure, which could help the ship owners plan their future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Carbon isotope fractionation by an ancestral rubisco suggests that biological proxies for CO 2 through geologic time should be reevaluated

The history of Earth’s carbon cycle reflects trends in atmospheric composition convolved with the evolution of photosynthesis. Fortunately, key parts of the carbon cycle have been recorded in the carbon isotope ratios of sedimentary rocks. The dominant model used to interpret this record as a proxy for ancient atmospheric CO 2 is based on carbon isotope fractionations of modern photoautotrophs, and longstanding questions remain about how their evolution might have impacted the record. Therefore, we measured both biomass (ε p ) and enzymatic (ε Rubisco ) carbon isotope fractionations of a cyanobacterial strain ( Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942) solely expressing a putative ancestral Form 1B rubisco dating to ≫1 Ga. This strain, nicknamed ANC, grows in ambient pCO 2 and displays larger ε p values than WT, despite having a much smaller ε Rubisco (17.23 ± 0.61‰ vs. 25.18 ± 0.31‰, respectively). Surprisingly, ANC ε p exceeded ANC ε Rubisco in all conditions tested, contradicting prevailing models of cyanobacterial carbon isotope fractionation. Such models can be rectified by introducing additional isotopic fractionation associated with powered inorganic carbon uptake mechanisms present in Cyanobacteria, but this amendment hinders the ability to accurately estimate historical pCO 2 from geological data. Understanding the evolution of rubisco and the CO 2 concentrating mechanism is therefore critical for interpreting the carbon isotope record, and fluctuations in the record may reflect the evolving efficiency of carbon fixing metabolisms in addition to changes in atmospheric CO 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Observations and modeling reveal that heatwaves reduce photosynthesis, plant carbon reserves, and net carbon uptake

Heatwaves threaten ecosystem carbon balances, yet the mechanisms driving short-term carbon flux responses remain poorly understood. Here, integrating high-frequency eddy covariance (EC) data from 140 global flux tower sites (872 site-years) with detailed process-based modeling, we examine ecosystem responses during and immediately after heatwaves. We show that heatwaves caused a −40% (range [−29%, −128%]) reduction in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) compared to pre-heatwave values, with this reduction persisting over the following two weeks (−38% range [+3%, −154%]). We attributed NEP decreases to photosynthesis decreases more than to ecosystem respiration (RE) increases. Forest sites had greater NEP decreases during heatwaves than non-forest sites, but remained carbon sinks afterwards, indicating resilience. Our modeling analysis of extreme heatwaves at selected EC sites shows that decreased photosynthesis, increased maintenance respiration, and decreased plant non-structural carbon reserves during heatwaves drive carbon cycle changes that persist for weeks. Consistent with phenocam observations, we modeled a reduction in leaf area index caused by reduced non-structural carbon reserves, leading to early leaf senescence and longer-term impacts. Ongoing increases in heatwaves are therefore likely to reduce NEP across a range of ecosystems, exacerbating carbon cycle feedback.

carbon cycle↗

A U.S. Scientific Community Vision for Sustained Earth Observations of Greenhouse Gases to Support Local to Global Action

Managing carbon stocks in the land, ocean, and atmosphere under changing climate requires a globally‐integrated view of carbon cycle processes at local and regional scales. The growing Earth Observation (EO) record is the backbone of this multi‐scale system, providing local information with discrete coverage from surface measurements and regional information at global scale from satellites. Carbon flux information, anchored by inverse estimates from spaceborne Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentrations, provides an important top‐down view of carbon emissions and sinks, but currently lacks global continuity at assessment and management scales (<100 km). Partial‐column data can help separate signals in the boundary layer from the overlying atmosphere, providing an opportunity to enhance surface sensitivity and bring flux resolution down from that of column‐integrated data (100–500 km). Based on a workshop held in September 2024, the carbon cycle community envisions a carbon observation system leveraging GHG partial columns in the lower and upper troposphere to weave together information across scales from surface and satellite EO data, and integration of top‐down/bottom‐up analyses to link process understanding to global assessment.

Parazoo, Nicholas C. [California Institute of Tech↗