Test Site Operations and Maintenance Safety: Test Facilities Capital Equipment.
Abstract not provided.
Heinrichs, Todd D.↗
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Portfolio de-risking for major-capital scientific investments.
Abstract not provided.
Glinsky, Michael Edwin↗
Techno-Economic Assessment of the Factory Production of Small Modular Reactor
The demand for electricity continues to grow around the world while pressures remain high to reduce carbon emissions. Nuclear energy provides a strong and reliable baseload power component without a high output of greenhouse gases. Global nuclear energy capacity is increasing with 62 reactors under construction in 14 countries. Nuclear energy will be crucial as energy demands are met with a sustainable and diverse energy portfolio. Small modular reactors (SMRs) are small scale (less than 300 MWe) reactors that incorporate the same advanced technologies included in recent LR nuclear reactor designs. SMRs are designed to include the latest reactor technology including passive safety features. SMRs offer economic advantages over LRs such as lower up-front capital and easier integration into the existing power grid. The modular characteristic of SMRs would allow incremental additions to power plants years after its completion. The cost of constructing SMR power plants will determine their future in the energy industry. Three SMR reactors are in advanced stages of design in the United States; the Westinghouse 225 MWe, mPower 180 MWe and nuScale 45 MWe. SMRs are expected to have lower capital expenses of reactor components due to factory production. Current estimates predict these savings to reduce SMR capital 30-40%. Existing studies have estimated SMR capital using economies of scale and holistic discounts applied to an overall capital expense figure, but do not include the expense of an SMR factory facility. To better understand the actual costs associated with construction of an SMR power plant, capital components will be broken down according to its place in the construction phase. The expense of a factory facility will also be included with SMR capital expenses to determine its significance and benefits to overall capital expenses. Results from this study show that SMRs can compete with LRs in terms of startup costs. The capital cost of building a factory for SMRs was previously overlooked for SMR capital estimates. The annualized capital expenses expected for an SMR factory are very small, but offer significant discounts to the overall capital costs for SMRs. Case 3 shows that factory production can reduce SMR capital expenses to the range of 30%-40% when compared to Case 1 in this study. Factory savings of this magnitude would require factory production of several SMR reactor and generator components including the reactor pressure vessel, control rods, steam generation, and chemical and volume control system, containment, condenser and turbo-generator. SMRs will also benefit from lower indirect expenses due to a much smaller construction duration. It is expected that SMRs will have capital costs competitive with LRs. The differences between Case 2 and Case 3 in this study show that SMRs are heavily dependent on the cost reductions coming from factory production. The factory facility represents a small increase in capital expense, but accounts for a large reduction of cost for factory components. SMRs have the potential to meet growing energy demands in the United States and around the world, but their economic viability is dependent on a factory facility that will lower the capital expenses of reactor and generator components. (authors)
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Benefits of Integration of Aerojet Rocketdyne and RTI Advanced Gasification Technologies for Hydrogen-Rich Syngas Production
The key objective for this project was to evaluate the potential to achieve substantial reductions in the production cost of H 2 -rich syngas via coal gasification with near-zero emissions due to the cumulative and synergistic benefits realized when multiple advanced technologies are integrated into the overall conversion process. In this project, Aerojet Rocketdyne’s (AR’s) advanced gasification technology (currently being offered as R-GAS™) and RTI International’s (RTI’s) advanced warm syngas cleanup technologies were evaluated via a number of comparative techno-economic case studies. AR’s advanced gasification technology consists of a dry solids pump and a compact gasifier system. Based on the unique design of this gasifier, it has been shown to reduce the capital cost of the gasification block by between 40 and 50%. At the start of this project, actual experimental work had been demonstrated through pilot plant systems for both the gasifier and dry solids pump. RTI’s advanced warm syngas cleanup technologies consist primarily of RTI’s Warm Gas Desulfurization Process (WDP) technology, which effectively allows decoupling of the sulfur and CO 2 removal allowing for more flexibility in the selection of the CO 2 removal technology, plus associated advanced technologies for direct sulfur recovery and water gas shift (WGS). WDP has been demonstrated at pre-commercial scale using an activated amine carbon dioxide recovery process which would not have been possible if a majority of the sulfur had not been removed from the syngas by WDP. This pre-commercial demonstration of RTI’s advanced warm syngas cleanup system was conducted in parallel to the activities on this project. The technical data and cost information from this pre-commercial demonstration were extensively used in this project during the techno-economic analysis. With this project, both of RTI’s advanced WGS technologies were investigated. Because RT’s advanced fixed-bed WGS (AFWGS) process was successfully implemented in the WDP pre-commercial demonstration test mentioned above, this technology was used as part of RTI’s advanced warm syngas technology package for the techno-economic analyses for this project. RTI’s advanced transport-reactor-based WGS (ATWGS) process was still conceptual at the start of this project, but one of the tasks for this project was to evaluate the technical feasibility of this technology. In each of the three application-based comparison studies conducted as part of this project, the reference case was based on an existing Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE/NETL) system study. Each of these references cases used existing commercial technology and the system resulted in > 90% carbon capture. In the comparison studies for the use of the hydrogen-rich syngas generated in either an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) or a Coal-to-Methanol (CTM) plant, the comparison cases consisted of the reference case, a case with the integration of each individual advanced technology (either AR or RTI), and finally a case with the integration of all the advanced technologies (AR and RTI combined). In the Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) comparison study, the comparison study consisted of only three cases, which included a reference case, a case with just RTI’s advanced syngas cleaning technology, and a case with AR’s and RTI’s advanced technologies. The results from these comparison studies showed that the integration of the advanced technologies did result in substantial benefits, and by far the greatest benefits were achieved for cases integrating all the advanced technologies. For the IGCC study, the fully integrated case resulted in a 1.4% net efficiency improvement, an 18% reduction in capital cost per kW of capacity, a 12% reduction in the operating cost per kWh, and a 75–79% reduction in sulfur emissions. For the CTM case, the fully integrated plant resulted in a 22% reduction in capital cost, a 13% reduction in operating costs, a > 99% net reduction in sulfur emissions, and a reduction of 13–15% in CO 2 emissions. Because the capital cost represents over 60% of the methanol Required Selling Price (RSP), the significant reduction in the capital cost for the advanced technology case resulted in an 18% reduction in methanol RSP. For the CTL case, the fully integrated plant resulted in a 16% reduction in capital cost, which represented a 13% reduction in diesel RSP. Finally, the technical feasibility analysis of RTI’s ATWGS process demonstrated that a fluid-bed catalyst with sufficient attrition resistance and WGS activity could be made and that the process achieved about a 24% reduction in capital cost compared to a conventional fixed-bed commercial process.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Estimation of economic impacts of cellulosic biofuel production: a comparative analysis of three biofuel pathways: Economic impacts of biofuel production
The development of a cellulosic biofuel industry utilizing domestic biomass resources is expected to create opportunities for economic growth resulting from the construction and operation of new biorefineries. We applied an economic input-output model to estimate potential economic impacts, particularly gross job growth, resulting from the construction and operation of biorefineries using three different technology pathways: 1) cellulosic ethanol via biochemical conversion in Iowa, 2) renewable diesel blendstock via biological conversion in Georgia, and 3) renewable diesel and gasoline blendstock via fast pyrolysis in Mississippi. Combining direct, indirect, and induced effects, capital investment associated with the construction of a biorefinery processing 2,000 dry metric tons of biomass per day (DMT/day) could yield between 5,960 and 8,470 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs during the construction period. Fast pyrolysis biorefineries produce the most jobs on a project level thanks to the highest capital requirement among the three pathways. Normalized for one million dollars of capital investment, the fast pyrolysis biorefineries are estimated to yield slighter more jobs (12.1 jobs) than the renewable diesel (11.8 jobs) and the cellulosic ethanol (11.6 jobs) biorefineries. While operating biorefineries is not labor-intensive, the annual operation of a 2,000 DMT/day biorefinery could support between 720 and 970 jobs when the direct, indirect, and induced effects are considered. The major factor, which results in the variations among the three pathways, is the type of biomass feedstock used for biofuels. The agriculture/forest, services, and trade industries are the primary sectors that will benefit from the ongoing operation of biorefineries.
Biofuels↗
Bulk Storage of Hydrogen
The technical aspects and economics of bulk hydrogen storage in underground pipes, lined rock caverns (LRC) and salt caverns are analyzed. Hydrogen storage in underground pipes is more economical than in geological caverns for useable amounts <20-t-H2. However, because the pipe material is a major cost factor, the capital and operating costs for this storage method do not decrease appreciably with an increase in the amount of stored H2. Unlike underground pipes, the installed capital cost of salt caverns decreases appreciably from ~$95/kg-H2 at 100 t-H2 stored to <$19/kg-H2 at 3000 t-H2 stored. Over the same scale, the annual storage cost decreases from ~$17/kg-H2 to ~$3/kg-H2. Like salt caverns, the installed capital cost of lined rock caverns decreases from ~$160/kg-H2 at 100 t-H2 stored to <$44/kg-H2 at 3000 t-H2 stored. Storing >750-t useable H2 requires multiple caverns. The cost of salt caverns scales more favorably with size because the salt caverns are larger than lined rock caverns and need to be added at a slower rate as the storage capacity is increased.
Bulk storage of hydrogen↗
Optimization and Techno-Economic Comparison of Regenerators and Recuperators in sCO2 Recompression Brayton Cycles for Concentrating Solar Power Applications
Supercritical CO2 power cycles might be capable of providing the cost reductions and efficiency improvements necessary to reach concentrating solar power (CSP) cost targets, but require large, highly effective recuperators. Fixed-bed regenerators are a periodic heat exchanger that could be an effective yet low-cost alternative to these recuperators. This study presents a techno-economic comparison of regenerators and recuperators for a 100 MWe supercritical CO2 power cycle for CSP applications. We quantify the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for the power plant with both types of heat exchangers, and explore sensitivity of LCOE to parameters such as CSP-specific capital costs, power cycle component capital costs, and regenerator valve replacements costs. Results indicate that the incumbent printed circuit heat exchangers achieve the lowest LCOE, unless the upper extreme of PCHE capital cost and lower extremes of regenerator and valve capital and O&M costs are realized. Sensitivity analysis also illustrates that the primary heat exchanger cost is the most influential of power cycle components, and that CSP component capital cost is more influential than power cycle capital costs. This illustrates the importance of reducing the cost of heliostats, receivers, and thermal energy storage for achieving CSP LCOE targets.
OTHER INSTRUMENTATION,SOLAR ENERGY↗
Bookending the Opportunity to Lower Wind’s LCOE by Reducing the Uncertainty Surrounding Annual Energy Production
Reducing the performance risk surrounding a wind project can potentially lead to a lower weighted-average cost of capital (WACC), and hence a lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE), through an advantageous shift in capital structure, and possibly also a reduction in the cost of capital. Specifically, a reduction in performance risk will move the 1-year P99 annual energy production (AEP) estimate closer to the P50 AEP estimate, which in turn reduces the minimum debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) required by lenders, thereby allowing the project to be financed with a greater proportion of low-cost debt. In addition, a reduction in performance risk might also reduce the cost of one or more of the three sources of capital that are commonly used to finance wind projects: sponsor or cash equity, tax equity, and/or debt. Preliminary internal LBNL analysis of the maximum possible LCOE reduction attainable from reducing the performance risk of a wind project found a potentially significant opportunity for LCOE reduction of ~$10/MWh, by reducing the P50 DSCR to its theoretical minimum value of 1.0 (Bolinger 2015b, 2014) and by reducing the cost of sponsor equity and debt by one-third to one-half each (Bolinger 2015a, 2015b). However, with FY17 funding from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) Performance Risk, Uncertainty, and Finance (PRUF) initiative, LBNL has been revisiting this “bookending” exercise in more depth, and now believes that its earlier preliminary assessment of the LCOE reduction opportunity was overstated. This reassessment is based on two new-found understandings: (1) Due to ever-present and largely irreducible inter-annual variability (IAV) in the wind resource, the minimum required DSCR cannot possibly fall to 1.0 (on a P50 basis), and (2) A reduction in AEP uncertainty will not necessarily lead to a reduction in the cost of capital, meaning that a shift in capital structure is perhaps the best that can be expected (perhaps along with a modest decline in the cost of cash equity as new investors enter the market).
17 WIND ENERGY↗
An Asset-Based Approach to Tribal Community Energy Planning
Community energy planning is a vital component of successful energy resource development and project implementation. Planning can help tribes develop a shared vision and strategies to accomplish their energy goals. This paper explores the benefits of an asset-based approach to tribal community energy planning. While a framework for community energy planning and federal funding already exists, some areas of difficulty in the planning cycle have been identified. This paper focuses on developing a planning framework that offsets those challenges. The asset-based framework described here takes inventory of a tribe’s capital assets, such as: land capital, human capital, financial capital, and political capital. Such an analysis evaluates how being rich in a specific type of capital can offer a tribe unique advantages in implementing their energy vision. Finally, a tribal case study demonstrates the practical application of an asset-based framework.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
A Comparison Between Industrial Energy Efficiency Measures in Guatemala and the United States
Energy auditing has been cited as a key tool in closing the gap between the actual energy consumption in industrial facilities and what should be at an environmentally sustainable level. Several factors affect the likelihood that energy audits will be effective in closing that gap, and more analysis is needed to understand these factors, especially for developing nations. This study compares three energy efficiency measures (EEMs) frequently recommended in both the United States and Guatemala, namely, installing solar panels to generate electricity, installing higher-efficiency lighting, and upgrading to premium efficiency motors. The implementation of each of these EEMs contributes to more sustainable energy consumption, and each of these EEM’s payback periods is affected by capital costs, energy costs, and other local factors analyzed in this study. Projected payback periods for each EEM based on Guatemalan and U.S. capital cost and energy cost ranges are assessed via EEM-specific payback period calculations and compared to the energy audit data from each country. While lower capital costs incentivize EEM implementation and reduce payback periods, there is an interplay between energy cost and capital cost that impacts the trends in the U.S. and Guatemala. As in the case of the solar panel installation EEM, though Guatemalan companies pay ~110% more for electricity than U.S. companies, when Guatemalan capital costs are lower, payback periods are lower than in the U.S. Conversely, in cases where Guatemalan capital costs are higher—as for higher-efficiency lighting and motor installation—Guatemalan payback periods are roughly the same as those in the U.S. because of the higher Guatemalan energy costs.
Khosla, Radhika↗
The potential role of a carbon tax in U.S. fiscal reform
This paper examines fiscal reform options in the United States with an intertemporal computable general equilibrium model of the world economy called G-Cubed. Six policy scenarios explore two overarching issues: (1) the effects of a carbon tax under alternative assumptions about the use of the resulting revenue, and (2) the effects of alternative measures that could be used to reduce the budget deficit. We examine a simple excise tax on the carbon content of fossil fuels in the U.S. energy sector starting immediately at $15 per metric ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) and rising at 4 percent above inflation each year through 2050. We investigate policies that allow the revenue from the illustrative carbon tax to reduce the long run federal budget deficit or the marginal tax rates on labor and capital income. We also compare the carbon tax to other means of reducing the deficit by the same amount. We find that the carbon tax will raise considerable revenue: $80 billion at the outset, rising to $170 billion in 2030 and $310 billion by 2050. It also significantly reduces U.S. CO2 emissions by an amount that is largely independent of the use of the revenue. By 2050, annual CO2 emissions fall by 2.5 billion metric tons (BMT), or 34 percent, relative to baseline, and cumulative emissions fall by 40 BMT through 2050. The use of the revenue affects both broad economic impacts and the composition of GDP across consumption, investment and net exports. In most scenarios, the carbon tax lowers GDP slightly, reduces investment and exports, and increases imports. The effect on consumption varies across policies and can be positive if households receive the revenue as a lump sum transfer. Using the revenue for a capital tax cut, however, is significantly different than the other policies. In that case, investment booms, employment rises, consumption declines slightly, imports increase, and overall GDP rises significantly relative to baseline through about 2040. Thus, a tax reform that uses a carbon tax to reduce capital taxes would achieve two goals: reducing CO2 emissions significantly and expanding short-run employment and the economy. We examine three ways to reduce the deficit by an equal amount. We find that raising marginal tax rates on labor income has advantages over raising tax rates on capital income or establishing a carbon tax. A labor tax increase leaves GDP close to its baseline, reduces consumption very slightly and expands net exports slightly. Investment remains essentially unchanged. In contrast, a capital tax increase causes a significant and persistent drop in investment and much larger reductions in GDP. A carbon tax falls between the two: it lowers GDP more than a labor tax increase because it reduces investment. However, its effects on investment and GDP are more moderate than the capital tax increase, and it also significantly reduces CO2 emissions. A carbon tax thus offers a way to help reduce the deficit and improve the environment, and do so with minimal disturbance to overall economic activity.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Markov Jump Processes Approximating a Non-Symmetric Generalized Diffusion
Consider a non-symmetric generalized diffusion X( Dot-Operator ) in Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} determined by the differential operator A(x) = -{Sigma}{sub ij} {partial_derivative}{sub i}a{sub ij}(x){partial_derivative}{sub j} + {Sigma}{sub i} b{sub i}(x){partial_derivative}{sub i}. In this paper the diffusion process is approximated by Markov jump processes X{sub n}( Dot-Operator ), in homogeneous and isotropic grids G{sub n} Subset-Of Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d}, which converge in distribution in the Skorokhod space D([0,{infinity}), Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d}) to the diffusion X( Dot-Operator ). The generators of X{sub n}( Dot-Operator ) are constructed explicitly. Due to the homogeneity and isotropy of grids, the proposed method for d{>=}3 can be applied to processes for which the diffusion tensor {l_brace}a{sub ij}(x){r_brace}{sub 11}{sup dd} fulfills an additional condition. The proposed construction offers a simple method for simulation of sample paths of non-symmetric generalized diffusion. Simulations are carried out in terms of jump processes X{sub n}( Dot-Operator ). For piece-wise constant functions a{sub ij} on Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} and piece-wise continuous functions a{sub ij} on Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup 2} the construction and principal algorithm are described enabling an easy implementation into a computer code.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Cost- and Risk-Based Seismic Design Optimization of Nuclear Power Plant Safety Systems
Seismic analysis, design, and qualification of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) is a significant contributor to the capital cost of a nuclear power plant. To reduce capital costs of advanced nuclear power plants and make commercial nuclear energy more competitive, innovations are needed in their structural design and construction, and not just in the reactor core and associated systems. Seismic isolation has been identified as an important cost-cutting technology that enables standardization of equipment across various sites. This paper develops and demonstrates a cost- and risk-based seismic design optimization of a representative safety system in a nuclear power plant with the dual goals of minimizing overnight capital cost and meeting safety goals. The design optimization can also include component seismic isolation, in which case, the optimized design includes a set of equipment that needs to be seismically isolated to minimize capital cost. The open-source codes MASTODON and Dakota are used for seismic probabilistic risk assessment and design optimization, respectively. A generic nuclear facility with a safety system comprising SSCs that are common to nuclear power plants is considered for the demonstration of the design optimization and is assumed to be located at the Idaho National Laboratory site. Generic costs and seismic design cost functions are assumed for the SSCs of the safety system. The sum of the costs of the SSCs is minimized in the optimization process, while the risk of failure of the safety system is provided as a constraint. Furthermore, results show that the optimization process reduces capital costs significantly while automatically prioritizing the safety of SSCs that contribute most to the risk of the safety system.
42 ENGINEERING↗
NYSEG Seneca Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) Demonstration Project
Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) is a hybrid energy storage and generation concept that has many potential benefits especially in a location with increasing percentages of intermittent wind energy generation. The objectives of the NYSEG Seneca CAES Project included: for Phase 1, development of a Front End Engineering Design for a 130MW to 210 MW utility-owned facility including capital costs; project financials based on the engineering design and forecasts of energy market revenues; design of the salt cavern to be used for air storage; draft environmental permit filings; and draft NYISO interconnection filing; for Phase 2, objectives included plant construction with a target in-service date of mid-2016; and for Phase 3, objectives included commercial demonstration, testing, and two-years of performance reporting. This Final Report is presented now at the end of Phase 1 because NYSEG has concluded that the economics of the project are not favorable for development in the current economic environment in New York State. The proposed site is located in NYSEG’s service territory in the Town of Reading, New York, at the southern end of Seneca Lake, in New York State’s Finger Lakes region. The landowner of the proposed site is Inergy, a company that owns the salt solution mining facility at this property. Inergy would have developed a new air storage cavern facility to be designed for NYSEG specifically for the Seneca CAES project. A large volume, natural gas storage facility owned and operated by Inergy is also located near this site and would have provided a source of high pressure pipeline quality natural gas for use in the CAES plant. The site has an electrical take-away capability of 210 MW via two NYSEG 115 kV circuits located approximately one half mile from the plant site. Cooling tower make-up water would have been supplied from Seneca Lake. NYSEG’s engineering consultant WorleyParsons Group thoroughly evaluated three CAES designs and concluded that any of the designs would perform acceptably. Their general scope of work included development of detailed project construction schedules, capital cost and cash flow estimates for both CAES cycles, and development of detailed operational data, including fuel and compression energy requirements, to support dispatch modeling for the CAES cycles. The Dispatch Modeling Consultant selected for this project was Customized Energy Solutions (CES). Their general scope of work included development of wholesale electric and gas market price forecasts and development of a dispatch model specific to CAES technologies. Parsons Brinkerhoff Energy Storage Services (PBESS) was retained to develop an air storage cavern and well system design for the CAES project. Their general scope of work included development of a cavern design, solution mining plan, and air production well design, cost, and schedule estimates for the project. Detailed Front End Engineering Design (FEED) during Phase 1 of the project determined that CAES plant capital equipment costs were much greater than the $\$$125.6- million originally estimated by EPRI for the project. The initial air storage cavern Design Basis was increased from a single five million cubic foot capacity cavern to three, five million cubic foot caverns with associated air production wells and piping. The result of this change in storage cavern Design Basis increased project capital costs significantly. In addition, the development time required to complete the three cavern system was estimated at approximately six years. This meant that the CAES plant would initially go into service with only one third of the required storage capacity and would not achieve full capability until after approximately five years of commercial operation. The market price forecasting and dispatch modeling completed by CES indicated that the CAES technologies would operate at only 10 to 20% capacity factors and the resulting overall project economics were not favorable for further development. As a result of all of these factors, the Phase 1 FEED developed an installed CAES plant cost estimate of approximately $\$$2,300/KW for the 210MW CAES 1A and 2 cycles. The capital cost for the 136 MW CAES 1 cycle was even higher due to the lower generating capacity of the cycle. Notably, the large equipment could have generated additional capacity (up to 270MW) which would have improved the cost per KW; however, the output was limited by the night time transmission system capability. The research herein, therefore, is particular to the site-specific factors that influenced the design and the current and forecasted generation mix and energy prices in Upstate New York and may not necessarily indicate that CAES plants cannot be economically constructed in other places in New York State or the world.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Economical and Environmentally Benign Extraction of Rare Earth Elements (REES) from Coal & Coal Byproducts
This final report provides a complete summary of the activities, results, analytical discussion, and overall evaluation of the project titled “Economical and Environmentally Benign Extraction of Rare Earth Elements (REES) from Coal & Coal Byproducts” under DOE Award Number DE-FE-0027155 that started in March 2016 and ended December 2017. Fly ash was selected as the coal-byproduct source material due to fact that it is readily available with no need for extensive methods to obtain the material, it is produced in large quantities (>50 million tons per year) and had REE concentrations similar to other coal-byproducts. The selected fly ash used throughout this project was from the Mill Creek power generating facility operated by Louisville Gas and Electric located in Louisville, KY and was subjected to a variety of physical and chemical characterization tests. Results from fusion extractions showed that the selected fly-ash had a TREE+Y concentration of 480 ppm with critical REEs concentration of 200 ppm. The fly ash had an outlook ratio of 1.25 and an estimated value of $16-$18 worth of salable REEs per 1-tonne of fly ash. Additional characterizations by optical evaluation, QEMSCAN, XRD, size fractionation, and SEM analysis showed the fly ash consisted of small glassy spherules with a size range between 1 to 110 µm (ave. diam. of 13 um), was heterogeneous in chemical composition (main crystalline phases: aluminum oxides and iron oxides) and was primarily an amorphous material (75 to 80%). A simple stepped approach was completed to estimate the total REE resource quantity. The approach included REE characterization of the representative samples, evaluation of fly-ash availability, and final determination estimated resource availability with regards to REE grade on a regional and national scale. This data represents the best available information and is based upon the assumptions that the power generating facility where the fly-ash was obtained will use the same coal sources (actual mines were identified), the coal materials will have relatively consistent REE concentrations, and the REE extraction process developed during this project can achieve 42% REE recovery (validated and confirmed). Calculations indicated that the estimated REE resource is approximately 175,000 tonnes with a current estimated value of $3,330MM. The proposed REE extraction and production process developed during this project used four fundamental steps; 1) fly-ash pretreatment to enhance REE extraction, 2) REE extraction by acid digestion, 3) REE separation/concentration by carbon adsorption and column chromatography, and 4) REE oxide production. Secondary processing steps to manage process residuals and additional processing techniques to produce value-added products were incorporated into the process during the project. These secondary steps were not only necessary to manage residuals, but also provided additional revenue streams that offset operational and capital expenditures. The process produces one value product stream (production of zeolite Na-P1), a solids waste stream, and one liquid stream that met RCRA discharge requirements. Based upon final design criteria and operational parameters, the proposed system could produce approximately 200 grams of REOs from 1-tonne of fly-ash, thereby representing a TREE+Y recovery of 42% (project target of > 25%). A detailed economic model was developed to evaluate both CAPEX and OPEX estimates for systems with varying capacities between 100 kg to 200 tonnes of fly ash processed per day. Using a standard system capacity of 10 tonne/day system, capital costs were estimated at $88/kg fly ash while operating costs were estimated at approximately $450/kg fly ash. This operating cost estimate includes a revenue of $495/tonne of fly ash processed from the value-added product produced from the system (zeolite Na-P1). Although operating cost savings due to zeolite production were significant, the capital + operating cost for a 10 tonne system was more expensive than the total dollar value of REEs present in the fly ash material. Specifically, the estimated cost per 1-tonne of fly ash treated is approximately $540 while the estimated value of REEs in the fly ash is $18-$20/tonne. This is an excessive difference showing that the proposed process is not economically feasible strictly on the basis of REE revenue compared to extraction costs. Although the current proposed system does not produce sufficient quantities of REEs or additional revenue sources to offset operational and capital costs, supplementary factors including US strategic concerns, commercial demands, and defense department requirements must be factored. At this time, the process developed during this project provides foundational information for future development of simple processes that require low capital investment and one that will extract a valuable quality and quantity of REE oxides from industrial waste.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
California Time-of-Use (TOU) Transition: Effects on Distributed Wind and Solar Economic Potential
Time-of-use (TOU) retail energy rates price electricity differently by the time of day, thereby communicating to consumers the costs of supplying electricity throughout the day. This study evaluates the impact of Decision D.15.07-001, which mandates a transition to default TOU rates in California, on the economic viability of behind-the-meter distributed wind and solar systems. We assess viability through 'economic potential,' a metric we define as the amount of generation capacity that exceeds a specified rate of return (5.4%) and therefore would be economic to construct; we do not attempt to project deployment or adoption. In addition, we identify cost improvements needed for a robust distributed wind market and the specific counties and sectors with substantial economic potential. Over the scenarios considered, model results indicate realistic pathways to reaching a robust, 1-GW distributed wind market in California though solar economic potential was found to be substantially larger than that of wind. Distributed wind's capacity factor does not appear to be strongly correlated to the periods of peak electricity prices as set by utility's TOU periods. Because of this disassociation and nuances in the billing of tiered electricity, the transition to TOU is projected to moderately decrease distributed wind economic potential and increase that of distributed solar. However, a limitation of this analysis is that it does not factor in the change in rate values as California works toward its goal of 100% renewables. As variable renewable energy penetration increases to meet this goal, our results suggest that wind generation will become increasingly correlated to periods of peak electricity prices. Increased variable renewable penetration, especially of solar, is likely to shift periods of higher electricity demand to later in the evening, and any periodic adjustments in TOU periods to reflect these new periods of demand will positively affect the value of wind generation more than the value of solar generation. High distributed wind capital costs are a significant barrier to large scale adoption; we explore the sensitivity of capital cost reductions on distributed wind economic potential. We find that distributed wind economic potential increases substantially in 2020 for capital costs below 3 dollars/W - particularly for residential- and commercial-scale turbines; capital costs must fall below 2 dollars/W in 2030 to support a significant increase in economic potential, in large part due to the expected continued cost reductions in solar. We identified an upper limit to the state's behind-the-meter distributed wind economic potential at approximately 5 GW. Overall, California exhibits over 1 GW of economic potential for distributed wind by 2030, even with the moderate decrease in potential under TOU. This potential is represented mostly by Southern California, which sees the most notable increase in economic viability as capital expenditure prices decline.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Evaluation of Steam Cycle Upgrades to Improve the Competitiveness of U.S. Coal Power Plants (Final Scientific / Technical Report)
Increasing the competitiveness of the existing pulverized-coal utility fleet in the United States may be achieved by decreasing heat rate, via increases in steam cycle efficiency through upgraded steam temperatures and use of latest technology available in steam turbine and blading design. The average net plant efficiency of the US coal-fired fleet is approximately 33% (HHV). Plant efficiency increases to approximately 41.4% (HHV) at 1,350°F (732°C) steam temperature. However, achieving these Advanced Ultra-Super Critical (AUSC) steam conditions requires the use of advanced high-temperature materials. While there has been a significant amount of DOE-funded materials R&D, most of the related design work has focused on new (greenfield) units, rather than on opportunities to retrofit this advanced technology to the existing utility fleet. If technology, based upon the advanced materials required for AUSC steam conditions, may be applied to the existing fleet, using an economically viable retrofit, a higher capacity factor can be expected as a result of the increased plant competitiveness. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) was awarded a project by the US Department of Energy to examine the technical and economic feasibility of a series of steam cycle upgrades to the two most prevalent types of U.S. coal power plants: 2,400 psig (16.6 MPa) subcritical and 3,500 psig (24.1 MPa) supercritical pulverized coal units. The nine upgrade options that were originally being considered included increasing the main and reheat steam temperatures from 1,000°F (538°C) to 1,100°, 1,200°, and 1,350°F (593°C, 649°C, and 732°C) while holding the steam pressures constant at their original design values, and cases where just the main steam or reheat steam temperatures were increased. The objective was to minimize the modifications required to the existing power plant while still providing a significant improvement in heat rate. The upgrade options assumed that the boiler enclosure envelope remained unchanged from each base case, and that all applicable OEM design guidelines for normal commercial units were imposed. For the highest temperature supercritical case, an option of using a low-pressure molten salt loop to transfer heat from the furnace to the steam was examined. The first major task of the work scope was designed to examine the technical feasibility of various upgrade options, while the subsequent work determined economic viability of the technically feasible upgrade options. Prior to evaluating the effect of these increased temperatures, a “base case” model of a subcritical and supercritical PC boiler was created, which was used for comparative purposes. Upgrade options were evaluated at full-load, part-load and dynamic transient conditions. Once the technical feasibility of each upgrade option was evaluated, the economic value of the heat rate improvement of each feasible option was determined by detailed modeling of unit dispatch in several regional power markets. The dispatch model was used to estimate the amount of revenue from power sales the upgraded unit would receive in comparison to a non-upgraded version of the same power plant. As a parallel task to the dispatch analysis, the capital cost of implementing the upgrades was estimated. The capital cost estimates were then compared to the increased revenue estimated by the dispatch modeling to determine the economic attractiveness of each upgrade option. Several upgrade options were determined to be technically feasible. The net present value (NPV) of the costs for steam cycle upgrades considered in this study ranged from approximately $\$$111 to $\$$130 million. The economic modeling results show that the unit dispatch changes resulting from steam cycle upgrades are relatively small, due largely to heat rate (and operating cost) changes being relatively small. Additionally, the cost of each upgrade exceeds the net revenue increases associated with the upgrade case. Note that the breakeven values are higher for subcritical retrofits, but the capital costs for the subcritical upgrades are also slightly higher. In typical new pulverized coal plants, fuel accounts for approximately 25% of the cost of electricity (COE), while capital costs represent around 50% of the COE. Therefore, in order to improve the heat rate by 4% one can only afford to increase the capital cost by 2%, at the same cost of electricity. The conclusion of this study is that without a cost for emitting CO 2 , it will be difficult to pay for significant efficiency improvements on plants firing low cost coals.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
2020 Cost Analysis of Hydropower Options at Non-Powered Dams
This report provides a cost analysis of potential hydropower development for representative non-powered dam (NPD) sites in the United States. The overarching objective is to support the establishment of a basis for evaluating progress towards improving the competitiveness of new hydropower development for electricity generation. The representative sites, herein referred to as “reference sites”, were selected from sites with detailed water resource data to support the cost analysis. Facility designs, capital costs, plant generation and efficiency profiles, capacity factors, and levelized costs of energy (LCOE) are presented for the sites under baseline and near-term innovation cases. The baseline case represents facility configurations using technologies that are already widely applied in the hydropower industry, whereas near-term innovations are technologies likely to reach wide acceptance within the next 5 to 10 years. Cost savings in the near-term relative to the baseline are discussed to illustrate the potential benefits to the hydropower industry from research and development (R&D) and adoption of these innovations. Medium- to long-term innovation options expected from ongoing private and government R&D efforts are also highlighted but are not quantified in this report because of a current lack of complete information on these options. The key findings of the cost analysis in this study imply that near-term innovations could reduce the baseline costs of hydropower development at US NPD sites. Thus, if remaining R&D issues with these near-term innovations can be resolved within the next 5 to 10 years, industry-wide adoption of these technologies and improved competitiveness of NPD hydropower development can be expected. Specific key findings of the analysis include the following: 1) Potential installed capacity at the NPD sites evaluated in this study vary from 200 kW to 70 MW, representing two orders of magnitude variation across nearly 20 sites; 2) Capital costs, not including development costs, for the sites evaluated in this study vary from $2,200/kW to $34,000/kW but are below $12,000/kW for most sites; 3) Baseline LCOE estimates for lake dams are from $79/MWh to $790/MWh with most sites under $400/MWh, whereas estimates for lock dams are from $134/MWh to $289/MWh with most sites under $200/MWh; 4) Reductions in capital cost per kilowatt under the near-term innovation case are from −77% to −14% for lake dams and −21% to −2.1% for lock dams (excluding one site with a 14% increase in per-kilowatt capital costs); 5) Combined changes in capital costs and capacity factors in the near-term case relative to the baseline lead to reductions in LCOE of −71% to −14% for lake dams and −21% to −14% for lock dams; 6) Overall, LCOE reductions lead to 8 of the 18 sites under the near-term case having LCOE values below $150/MWh compared with only 2 of 18 sites in the baseline case.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗