Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Bayesian imaging”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

158 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Variational encoder geostatistical analysis (VEGAS) with an application to large scale riverine bathymetry

Estimation of riverbed profiles, also known as bathymetry, plays a vital role in many applications, such as safe and efficient inland navigation, prediction of bank erosion, land subsidence, and flood risk management. The high cost and complex logistics of direct bathymetry surveys, i.e, depth imaging, have encouraged the use of indirect measurements such as surface flow velocities. However, estimating high-resolution bathymetry from indirect measurements is an inverse problem that can be computationally challenging. Here, we propose a reduced-order model (ROM) based approach that utilizes a variational autoencoder (VAE), a type of deep neural network with a narrow layer in the middle, to compress bathymetry and flow velocity information and accelerate bathymetry inverse problems from flow velocity measurements. In our application, the shallow-water equations (SWE) with appropriate boundary conditions (BCs), e.g., the discharge and/or the free surface elevation, constitute the forward problem, to predict flow velocity. Then, ROMs of the SWEs are constructed on a nonlinear manifold of low dimensionality through a variational encoder and the bathymetry inversion problem is derived on the low-dimensional latent space in a Hierarchical Bayesian setting. Further, the reformulation allows variational inference with a small number (e.g., $\mathscr{O}$ (100) of ROM runs and efficient uncertainty quantification. We have tested our inversion approach on a one-mile reach of the Savannah River, GA, USA. Once the neural network is trained (offline stage), the proposed technique can perform the inversion operation orders of magnitude faster than traditional inversion methods that are commonly based on linear projections, such as principal component analysis (PCA), or the principal component geostatistical approach (PCGA). Furthermore, tests show that the algorithm can estimate the bathymetry with good accuracy even with sparse flow velocity measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pushing the limits of detectability: mixed dark matter from strong gravitational lenses

One of the frontiers for advancing what is known about dark matter lies in using strong gravitational lenses to characterize the population of the smallest dark matter haloes. There is a large volume of information in strong gravitational lens images – the question we seek to answer is to what extent we can refine this information. To this end, we forecast the detectability of a mixed warm and cold dark matter scenario using the anomalous flux ratio method from strong gravitational lensed images. The halo mass function of the mixed dark matter scenario is suppressed relative to cold dark matter but still predicts numerous low-mass dark matter haloes relative to warm dark matter. Since the strong lensing signal receives a contribution from a range of dark matter halo masses and since the signal is sensitive to the specific configuration of dark matter haloes, not just the halo mass function, degeneracies between different forms of suppression in the halo mass function, relative to cold dark matter, can arise. Here, we find that, with a set of lenses with different configurations of the main deflector and hence different sensitivities to different mass ranges of the halo mass function, the different forms of suppression of the halo mass function between the warm dark matter model and the mixed dark matter model can be distinguished with 40 lenses with Bayesian odds of 30:1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The discovery of a radio galaxy of at least 5 Mpc

Context. Giant radio galaxies (GRGs, or colloquially ‘giants’) are the Universe’s largest structures generated by individual galaxies. They comprise synchrotron-radiating active galactic nucleus ejecta and attain cosmological (megaparsec-scale) lengths. However, the main mechanisms that drive their exceptional growth remain poorly understood. Aims. To deduce the main mechanisms that drive a phenomenon, it is usually instructive to study extreme examples. If there exist host galaxy characteristics that are an important cause for GRG growth, then the hosts of the largest GRGs are likely to possess them. Similarly, if there exist particular large-scale environments that are highly conducive to GRG growth, then the largest GRGs are likely to reside in them. For these reasons, we aim to perform a case study of the largest GRG available. Methods. We reprocessed the LOFAR Two-Metre Sky Survey DR2 by subtracting compact sources and performing multi-scale CLEAN de-convolutions at 60" and 90" resolution. The resulting images constitute the most sensitive survey yet for radio galaxy lobes, whose diffuse nature and steep synchrotron spectra have allowed them to evade previous detection attempts at higher resolution and shorter wavelengths. We visually searched these images for GRGs. Results. We have discovered Alcyoneus, a low-excitation radio galaxy with a projected proper length l p = 4.99 ± 0.04 Mpc. Both its jets and lobes are detected at very high significance, and the SDSS-based identification of the host, at spectroscopic redshift z spec = 0.24674 ± 6 × 10 -5 , is unambiguous. The total luminosity density at ν = 144 MHz is L ν = 8 ± 1 × 10 25 W Hz -1 , which is below average, though near median (percentile 45 ± 3%) for GRGs. The host is an elliptical galaxy with a stellar mass M* = 2.4 ± 0.4 × 10 11 M ⊙ and a super-massive black hole mass M• = 4 ± 2 × 10 8 M ⊙ , both of which tend towards the lower end of their respective GRG distributions (percentiles 25 ± 9% and 23 ± 11%). The host resides in a filament of the Cosmic Web. Through a new Bayesian model for radio galaxy lobes in three dimensions, we estimate the pressures in the megaparsec-cubed-scale northern and southern lobes to be P min,1 = 4.8 ± 0.3 × 10 -16 Pa and P min,2 = 4.9 ± 0.6 × 10 -16 Pa, respectively. The corresponding magnetic field strengths are B min,1 = 46 ± 1 pT and B min,2 = 46 ± 3 pT. Conclusions. We have discovered what is in projection the largest known structure made by a single galaxy – a GRG with a projected proper length l p = 4.99 ± 0.04 Mpc. The true proper length is at least l min = 5.04 ± 0.05 Mpc. Beyond geometry, Alcyoneus and its host are suspiciously ordinary: the total low-frequency luminosity density, stellar mass, and super-massive black hole mass are all lower than, though similar to, those of the medial GRG. Thus, very massive galaxies or central black holes are not necessary to grow large giants, and, if the observed state is representative of the source over its lifetime, neither is high radio power. A low-density environment remains a possible explanation. The source resides in a filament of the Cosmic Web, with which it might have significant thermodynamic interaction. The pressures in the lobes are the lowest hitherto found, and Alcyoneus therefore represents the most promising radio galaxy yet to probe the warm–hot inter-galactic medium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-fidelity Bayesian neural networks: Algorithms and applications

Here we propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential equations (PDEs). These multi-fidelity BNNs consist of three neural networks: The first is a fully connected neural network, which is trained following the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) method to fit the low-fidelity data; the second is a Bayesian neural network employed to capture the cross-correlation with uncertainty quantification between the low- and high-fidelity data; and the last one is the physics-informed neural network, which encodes the physical laws described by PDEs. For the training of the last two neural networks, we first employ the mean-field variational inference (VI) to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to obtain informative prior distributions for the hyperparameters in the BNNs, and subsequently we use the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate accurately the posterior distributions for the corresponding hyperparameters. We demonstrate the accuracy of the present method using synthetic data as well as real measurements. Specifically, we first approximate a one- and four-dimensional function, and then infer the reaction rates in one- and two-dimensional diffusion-reaction systems. Moreover, we infer the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays using satellite images and in-situ measurements. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the present method can capture both linear and nonlinear correlation between the low- and high-fidelity data adaptively, identify unknown parameters in PDEs, and quantify uncertainties in predictions, given a few scattered noisy high-fidelity data. Finally, we demonstrate that we can effectively and efficiently reduce the uncertainties and hence enhance the prediction accuracy with an active learning approach, using as examples a specific one-dimensional function approximation and an inverse PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intelligent Process Visualization through Nuclear Operation Process Modeling, Reasoning, and Object Detection from Field Videos (Final Report)

This report is a deliverable for the “Final Report” task of DOE NEET Project 19-16790, "Context-Aware Safety Information Display for Nuclear Field Workers." This project's overall goal is to test the hypothesis that integrating computer vision and process reasoning methods will enable proactive visualization of the safe operation and maintenance processes of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) for field workers. Augmented Reality (AR) glasses adopting such proactive safety information visualization techniques can significantly increase personnel safety and reduce the NPP’s operating costs. The current practice of monitoring NPPs requires workers to switch between digital models, data, and physical workspaces in identifying relevant but potentially occluded objects and in assessing the risks of operation and maintenance processes. On the other hand, frequently changed field conditions require field workers to report to supervisors for real-time guidance. Such guidance is essential to ensure that changing conditions will not invalidate or endanger the work order and other ongoing processes that may jeopardize NPP operations. Additionally, incorrect recognition of equipment objects can result in communication errors and safety problems. AR techniques can assist engineers in viewing the physical workspaces with objects labeled with detailed operation procedures and safety reminders during field operations. The project team developed an “Intelligent Context-Aware Safety Information Display” (ICAD) for supporting Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) field workers in achieving safe and efficient execution of a series of operational tasks in uncertain and changing workspaces of an NPP. Before designing the ICAD-AR prototype, the project team synthesized NPP operational knowledge models through literature review studies, surveys, interviews with domain experts, and knowledge modeling. The project team conducted an extensive study of the operational procedures of various NPPs, and digital technologies that can support the safe and efficient execution of those procedures in different NPP operational contexts. This literature review helped the project team conduct surveys and interviews with nuclear engineers and field workers to identify three categories of information. The NPP knowledge modeling efforts reveal that the three categories of information identified have different levels of importance in a typical procedure of carrying out a series of tasks to achieve a specific NPP operation goal (e.g., shutdown, mode changes). These three categories of information include 1) Workspace dynamics – the changing spatial arrangements of workspaces, tools, protection equipment, and supporting materials, 2) Workflow prognostics – the dynamic dependencies between different parts of an NPP that functionally support and influence each other in terms of safety and efficiency, and 3) Hazards – objects and spaces that contain hazardous materials or physical conditions that can pose risks to workers or mechanical systems. The project team has profiled the importance levels of these categories of information into a knowledge model. This knowledge model specifies what types of information are more critical for a given task in a given workspace so that computers can automatically identify critical objects and sensors in a scene for delivering context-ware safety information to field workers through AR devices. Significant research development of this project results in technical research outcomes and a prototyping system that illustrates the technical feasibility of establishing an ICAD-AR system supporting the proactive safety information display for nuclear field workers. This final report summarizes the project team’s technological achievements in the past three years. Overall, the project team completed the development and integration of five techniques into a prototype ICAD Augmented Reality (ICAD-AR) system and demonstrated the developed system’s real-time execution in a mechanical room. The project team completed the analysis of using this prototype in other types of workspaces based on 3D image data and digital design models collected from two additional workspaces (a water treatment plant and a flow loop training facility). The integrated techniques include 1) Natural Language Processing (NLP) algorithms supporting the generation and updates of nuclear fieldwork process models based on text analysis of work packages and operation manuals; 2) sensor log analysis for predicting control actions in given sensor reading contexts; 3) computer vision algorithms for automatic localization and navigation of workers; 4) object detection algorithms for identifying task-related objects and correlated sensors for safety checking; 5) AR technique as a platform for supporting the integration. The testing results of these five techniques have shown that 1) the sensor log analysis model can predict the next control action with an accuracy of 0.883; 2) the trained natural language processing model can extract more than 80% of the critical information from paper-based procedures (PBPs); 3) the navigation algorithm with the integration of Visual Inertial Odometry (VIO) and Non-Recursive Bayesian Filter methods make operator’s trajectory estimation resilient to drift error; 4) the computer vision algorithm can detect task-specific and safety-critical objects with an average accuracy of 95.3%. The project team used work procedures collected from a flow loop training facility and two datasets collected from two mechanical rooms simulating the workspaces of NPPs to demonstrate the technical capabilities of the developed ICAD-AR prototype. The demonstration validated the technical feasibility of establishing the ICAD-AR system for nuclear field workers and identified the challenges in 1) automatic text analysis of work packages; 2) use of limited samples of sensor logs for predicting the proper timings of control actions; 3) reliably tracking workers and their task progress in mechanical rooms with many similar objects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-objective Bayesian active learning for MeV-ultrafast electron diffraction

Ultrafast electron diffraction using MeV energy beams(MeV-UED) has enabled unprecedented scientific opportunities in the study of ultrafast structural dynamics in a variety of gas, liquid and solid state systems. Broad scientific applications usually pose different requirements for electron probe properties. Due to the complex, nonlinear and correlated nature of accelerator systems, electron beam property optimization is a time-taking process and often relies on extensive hand-tuning by experienced human operators. Algorithm based efficient online tuning strategies are highly desired. Here, we demonstrate multi-objective Bayesian active learning for speeding up online beam tuning at the SLAC MeV-UED facility. The multi-objective Bayesian optimization algorithm was used for efficiently searching the parameter space and mapping out the Pareto Fronts which give the trade-offs between key beam properties. Such scheme enables an unprecedented overview of the global behavior of the experimental system and takes a significantly smaller number of measurements compared with traditional methods such as a grid scan. This methodology can be applied in other experimental scenarios that require simultaneously optimizing multiple objectives by explorations in high dimensional, nonlinear and correlated systems.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Nanomagnetic Memories for Uncertain and Robust Machine Learning

This project evaluated the use of emerging spintronic memory devices for robust and efficient variational inference schemes. Variational inference (VI) schemes, which constrain the distribution for each weight to be a Gaussian distribution with a mean and standard deviation, are a tractable method for calculating posterior distributions of weights in a Bayesian neural network such that this neural network can also be trained using the powerful backpropagation algorithm. Our project focuses on domain-wall magnetic tunnel junctions (DW-MTJs), a powerful multi-functional spintronic synapse design that can achieve low power switching while also opening the pathway towards repeatable, analog operation using fabricated notches. Our initial efforts to employ DW-MTJs as an all-in-one stochastic synapse with both a mean and standard deviation didn’t end up meeting the quality metrics for hardware-friendly VI. In the future, new device stacks and methods for expressive anisotropy modification may make this idea still possible. However, as a fall back that immediately satisfies our requirements, we invented and detailed how the combination of a DW-MTJ synapse encoding the mean and a probabilistic Bayes-MTJ device, programmed via a ferroelectric or ionically modifiable layer, can robustly and expressively implement VI. This design includes a physics-informed small circuit model, that was scaled up to perform and demonstrate rigorous uncertainty quantification applications, up to and including small convolutional networks on a grayscale image classification task, and larger (Residual) networks implementing multi-channel image classification. Lastly, as these results and ideas all depend upon the idea of an inference application where weights (spintronic memory states) remain non-volatile, the retention of these synapses for the notched case was further interrogated. These investigations revealed and emphasized the importance of both notch geometry and anisotropy modification in order to further enhance the endurance of written spintronic states. In the near future, these results will be mapped to effective predictions for room temperature and elevated operation DW-MTJ memory retention, and experimentally verified when devices become available.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical characterization of twin transmission across grain boundaries in magnesium

Here, a detailed statistical analysis of twin transmission (TT) across grain boundaries is performed in rolled, commercial purity magnesium compressed along the rolling direction. EBSD images are acquired from two different cuts: a section containing the rolling (RD) and normal (ND) directions; and a section at 35° to the ND which contains transverse direction (TD). An automated twinning analysis software, METIS, is used to obtain the statistical correlations between deformation twins and other microstructural features by analyzing EBSD microstructures comprising thousands of grains and twins. This detailed statistical analysis reveals that the TT propensity is sensitive to the grain boundary (GB) misorientation angle but not to the GB misorientation axis. Specifically, TT propensity decreases with increasing GB misorientation angle; however, the decreasing trend is not monotonic. Further, the detailed analysis of TT events combining macroscopic Schmid factor and the geometric measures (m’: accounts for the alignment of both twin plane normal and shear directions; m”: accounts for the alignment of only twin shear directions; and m”’: accounts for the alignment of only twin plane normal) helps in understanding and identifying the process of twin-pair formation, i.e., co-nucleation versus transmission, also to identify the role of local stresses at GBs induced by inter-grain interaction versus twinning shear transformation processes. In addition, Bayesian inference is used to draw statistically meaningful conclusions as to the likelihood of transmission given misorientation angles. Lastly, twin chain frequency as a function of chain length is predicted using the probability distribution obtained from the Bayesian inference and compared with the actual data from the EBSD microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

First observation of increased DT yield over prediction due to addition of hydrogen

Here, in a number of reported instances, implosions utilizing fuel mixtures have resulted in anomalously low fusion yields below those predicted by radiation-hydrodynamics simulations. Inter-species ion diffusion has been suggested as a possible cause of the observed yield degradation in fuel mixture implosions. An experimental platform utilizing hydro-equivalent deuterium–tritium (DT), deuterium–tritium–hydrogen (DTH), and deuterium-tritium-helium3 (DT 3 He) capsule implosions was developed to determine whether the inter-species ion diffusion theory may describe the resulting fuel mixture implosion behavior. The implosion experiments were performed at the Omega laser facility. X-ray images and shell areal density diagnostics results show that the hydro-equivalent three capsules (DT, DTH, and DT 3 He) have similar compression behavior. However, nuclear yield deviation was observed from the scaling determined using a fusion yield formula. In the DT 3 He mixture, a reduced yield of a factor of 0.65 ± 0.13 was observed, which is similar to a yield reduction observed in D 3 He mixture by Rygg et al. (i.e., Rygg effect). In contrast, in the DTH mixture, a factor of 1.17 ±0.15 yield increase was observed, which we named the inverse Rygg effect. The yield increase observed in the DTH mixture is consistent with the inter-species ion diffusion theory where lighter H diffuses away from the core and concentrated DT in the core produces higher yield. An inter-species ion diffusion model, the Zimmerman–Paquette–Kagan–Zhdanov model, implemented in a Lagrangian radiation-hydrodynamics fluid code, was also used to analyze the present data, without the need to assume hydrodynamic equivalence of the capsules, but it does not completely explain the DTH or DT 3 He capsules although its effects are in the correct direction. Simulation-based Bayesian inference was used in the latter analysis to quantify the uncertainty in the numerical simulations. The simulation-based analysis resulted in an inferred Rygg-effect yield decrease factor of 0.91 ± 0.02 for the DT 3 He mixture, and an inferred inverse-Rygg yield increase factor of 1.21 ± 0.04 for the DTH mixture, based on simulations ignoring ion diffusion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining physical models at gigabar pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative infor mation. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. As a result, the goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cosmic Shear

We present legacy cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints using six years of Dark Energy Survey imaging data. From these data, we study ~140 million galaxies (8.29 galaxies/arcmin$^2$) that are 50% complete at i=24.0 and extend beyond z=1.2. We divide the galaxies into four redshift bins, and obtain cosmic shear measurement with a signal-to-noise of 83, a factor of 2 higher than the Year 3 analysis. We model the uncertainties due to shear and redshift calibrations, and discard measurements on small angular scales to mitigate baryon feedback and other small-scale uncertainties. We consider two fiducial models to account for the intrinsic alignment (IA) of the galaxies. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the $Λ$CDM model and find $S_8 \equiv σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}=0.798^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ (marginalized mean with 68% CL) when using the non-linear alignment model (NLA) and $S_{8} = 0.783^{+0.019}_{-0.015}$ with the tidal alignment and tidal torque model (TATT), providing 1.8% and 2.5% uncertainty on $S_8$. Compared to constraints from the cosmic microwave background from Planck 2018, ACT DR6 and SPT-3G DR1, we find consistency in the full parameter space at 1.1$σ$ (1.7$σ$) and in $S_8$ at 2.0$σ$ (2.3$σ$) for NLA (TATT). The result using the NLA model is preferred according to the Bayesian evidence. We find that the model choice for IA and baryon feedback can impact the value of our $S_8$ constraint up to $1σ$. For our fiducial model choices, the resultant uncertainties in $S_8$ are primarily degraded by the removal of scales, as well as the marginalization over the IA parameters. We demonstrate that our result is internally consistent and robust to different choices in calibrating the data, owing to methodological improvements in shear and redshift measurement, laying the foundation for next-generation cosmic shear programs.

Abbott, T. M.C. [Cerro-Tololo InterAmerican Obs.]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Evaluation of Geoscientific Hypotheses with Geophysical Data: Application to Electrical Resistivity Imaging of a Fractured Bedrock Zone

As climate changes and populations grow, groundwater sustainability is becoming increasingly important. Groundwater models, based on a conceptual understanding of the subsurface structure, are crucial tools for making sustainable management decisions. Conceptual models of the subsurface are based on knowledge of geological processes, and, frequently, observations from geophysical data. A frequent problem in groundwater model development occurs when multiple geological phenomena could explain a single subsurface observation. Uncertainty in geophysical data makes it even more difficult to discern which explanations are consistent with the geophysics. Here, we present a framework for testing geological when a geological feature is observed in geophysical data, but its physical characteristics are uncertain. The framework builds on Popper-Bayes methods developed in previous work, and is applied to study a fractured bedrock zone in a mountainous watershed in southwest Colorado. First, we outline six hypotheses based on the geological history of the watershed. Then, using the proposed Popper-Bayes approach, we demonstrate that three of the six hypotheses are inconsistent with measured electrical resistivity data, even after accounting for uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the importance of the prior model, and how this framework for handling geophysical uncertainty can be applied in other settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗