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DOE OSTI2026

Cosmological neutrino mass: a frequentist overview in light of DESI

We derive constraints on the neutrino mass using a variety of recent cosmological datasets, including DESI BAO, the full-shape analysis of the DESI matter power spectrum and the one-dimensional power spectrum of the Lyman-α forest (P1D) from eBOSS quasars as well as the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The constraints are obtained in the frequentist formalism by constructing profile likelihoods and applying the Feldman-Cousins prescription to compute confidence intervals. This method avoids potential prior and volume effects that may arise in a comparable Bayesian analysis. Parabolic fits to the profiles allow one to distinguish changes in the upper limits from variations in the constraining power σ of the different data combinations. We find that all profiles in the ΛCDM model are cut off by the ∑m ν ≥ 0 bound, meaning that the corresponding parabolas reach their minimum in the unphysical sector. The most stringent 95% C.L. upper limit is obtained by the combination of DESI DR2 BAO, Planck PR4 and CMB lensing at 53 meV, below the minimum of 59 meV set by the normal ordering. The corresponding constraining power σ is 43 meV, which highlights the importance of the cut-off by negative values in the determination of the upper limit. Extending ΛCDM to non-zero curvature and w 0 w a CDM relaxes the constraints past 59 meV again, but only w 0 w a CDM exhibits profiles with a minimum at a positive value. Additionally, we extend the formalism to constrain the lightest neutrino mass. For DESI DR2 BAO, Planck PR4 and CMB lensing, we find confidence limits at 20 and 19 meV for normal and inverted ordering, respectively. Using a combination of DESI DR1 full-shape, BBN and eBOSS Lyman-α P1D, we successfully constrain the neutrino mass independently of the CMB. This combination yields m l ≤ 97 and 98 meV in the normal and inverted orderings, and total neutrino mass ∑m ν ≤ 285 meV (95% C.L.). The addition of DESI full-shape or Lyman-α P1D to CMB and DESI BAO results in small but noticeable improvement of the constraining power of the data. Lyman-α free-streaming measurements especially improve the constraint. Since they are based on eBOSS data, this sets a promising precedent for upcoming DESI data.

Frequentist statistics↗
DOE OSTI2016

A note on the birefringence angle estimation in CMB data analysis

Parity violating physics beyond the standard model of particle physics induces a rotation of the linear polarization of photons. This effect, also known as cosmological birefringence (CB), can be tested with the observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies which are linearly polarized at the level of 5–10%. In particular CB produces non-null CMB cross correlations between temperature and B mode-polarization, and between E- and B-mode polarization. Here we study the properties of the so called D-estimators, often used to constrain such an effect. After deriving the framework of both frequentist and Bayesian analysis, we discuss the interplay between birefringence and weak-lensing, which, albeit parity conserving, modifies pre-existing TB and EB cross correlation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

A statistical analysis of seeds and other high-contrast exoplanet surveys: massive planets or low-mass brown dwarfs?

We conduct a statistical analysis of a combined sample of direct imaging data, totalling nearly 250 stars. The stars cover a wide range of ages and spectral types, and include five detections (κ And b, two ∼60 M {sub J} brown dwarf companions in the Pleiades, PZ Tel B, and CD–35 2722B). For some analyses we add a currently unpublished set of SEEDS observations, including the detections GJ 504b and GJ 758B. We conduct a uniform, Bayesian analysis of all stellar ages using both membership in a kinematic moving group and activity/rotation age indicators. We then present a new statistical method for computing the likelihood of a substellar distribution function. By performing most of the integrals analytically, we achieve an enormous speedup over brute-force Monte Carlo. We use this method to place upper limits on the maximum semimajor axis of the distribution function derived from radial-velocity planets, finding model-dependent values of ∼30-100 AU. Finally, we model the entire substellar sample, from massive brown dwarfs to a theoretically motivated cutoff at ∼5 M {sub J}, with a single power-law distribution. We find that p(M, a)∝M {sup –0.65} {sup ±} {sup 0.60} a {sup –0.85} {sup ±} {sup 0.39} (1σ errors) provides an adequate fit to our data, with 1.0%-3.1% (68% confidence) of stars hosting 5-70 M {sub J} companions between 10 and 100 AU. This suggests that many of the directly imaged exoplanets known, including most (if not all) of the low-mass companions in our sample, formed by fragmentation in a cloud or disk, and represent the low-mass tail of the brown dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A thought experiment to evaluate a proposed data analysis method

A statistical analysis was recently presented at a DOE review in reference to a particular problem. Here we attempt to capture the essence of this problem with a simple “toy” analog and demonstrate the incorrectness of the presented J figure of merit algorithm. We show that the incorrect usage of J gives PDFs that have erroneous long tails and significantly overestimate the rms deviations relative to those obtained by exact analytic methods. Conversely, a numerical Bayesian analysis gives the correct result.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Deep Exploration of ϵ Eridani with Keck Ms-band Vortex Coronagraphy and Radial Velocities: Mass and Orbital Parameters of the Giant Exoplanet

We present the most sensitive direct imaging and radial velocity (RV) exploration of ϵ Eridani to date. ϵ Eridani is an adolescent planetary system, reminiscent of the early solar system. It is surrounded by a prominent and complex debris disk that is likely stirred by one or several gas giant exoplanets. The discovery of the RV signature of a giant exoplanet was announced 15 yr ago, but has met with scrutiny due to possible confusion with stellar noise. We confirm the planet with a new compilation and analysis of precise RV data spanning 30 yr, and combine it with upper limits from our direct imaging search, the most sensitive ever performed. The deep images were taken in the Ms band (4.7 μm) with the vortex coronagraph recently installed in W.M. Keck Observatory’s infrared camera NIRC2, which opens a sensitive window for planet searches around nearby adolescent systems. The RV data and direct imaging upper limit maps were combined in an innovative joint Bayesian analysis, providing new constraints on the mass and orbital parameters of the elusive planet. ϵ Eridani b has a mass of 0.78{sub −0.12}{sup +0.38} M {sub Jup} and is orbiting ϵ Eridani at about 3.48 ± 0.02 au with a period of 7.37 ± 0.07 yr. The eccentricity of ϵ Eridani b’s orbit is 0.07{sub −0.05}{sup +0.06}, an order of magnitude smaller than early estimates and consistent with a circular orbit. We discuss our findings from the standpoint of planet–disk interactions and prospects for future detection and characterization with the James Webb Space Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

TOI-220 b : a warm sub-Neptune discovered by TESS

ABSTRACT In this paper, we report the discovery of TOI-220 b, a new sub-Neptune detected by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and confirmed by radial velocity follow-up observations with the HARPS spectrograph. Based on the combined analysis of TESS transit photometry and high precision radial velocity measurements, we estimate a planetary mass of 13.8 ± 1.0 M⊕ and radius of 3.03 ± 0.15 R⊕, implying a bulk density of 2.73 ± 0.47 $\rm {g\,cm}^{-3}$. TOI-220 b orbits a relative bright (V= 10.4) and old (10.1 ± 1.4 Gyr) K dwarf star with a period of ∼10.69 d. Thus, TOI-220 b is a new warm sub-Neptune with very precise mass and radius determinations. A Bayesian analysis of the TOI-220 b internal structure indicates that due to the strong irradiation it receives, the low density of this planet could be explained with a steam atmosphere in radiative–convective equilibrium and a supercritical water layer on top of a differentiated interior made of a silicate mantle and a small iron core.

Hoyer, S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

DISCOVERY OF A GAS GIANT PLANET IN MICROLENSING EVENT OGLE-2014-BLG-1760

We present the analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2014-BLG-1760, which shows a strong light-curve signal due to the presence of a Jupiter mass ratio planet. One unusual feature of this event is that the source star is quite blue, with V-I=1.48±0.08. This is marginally consistent with a source star in the Galactic bulge, but it could possibly indicate a young source star on the far side of the disk. Assuming a bulge source, we perform a Bayesian analysis assuming a standard Galactic model, and this indicates that the planetary system resides in or near the Galactic bulge at D{sub L}=6.9±1.1 kpc. It also indicates a host-star mass of M{sub ·}=0.51{sub -0.28}{sup +0.44}M{sub ⊙}, a planet mass of m{sub p}=0.56{sub -0.26}{sup +0.34}M{sub J}, and a projected star–planet separation of a{sub ⊥}=1.75{sub -0.33}{sup +0.34} au. The lens–source relative proper motion is μ{sub rel}=6.5±1.1 mas yr{sup -1}. The lens (and stellar host star) is estimated to be very faint compared to the source star, so it is most likely that it can be detected only when the lens and source stars start to separate. Due to the relatively high relative proper motion, the lens and source will be resolved to about ~46 mas in 6–8 yr after the peak magnification. So, by 2020–2022, we can hope to detect the lens star with deep, high-resolution images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty analysis of signal deconvolution using a measured instrument response function

A common analysis procedure minimizes the ln-likelihood that a set of experimental observables matches a parameterized model of the observation. The model includes a description of the underlying physical process as well as the instrument response function (IRF). Here, we investigate the National Ignition Facility (NIF) neutron time-of-flight (nTOF) spectrometers, the IRF is constructed from measurements and models. IRF measurements have a finite precision that can make significant contributions to the uncertainty estimate of the physical model’s parameters. Finally, we apply a Bayesian analysis to properly account for IRF uncertainties in calculating the ln-likelihood function used to find the optimum physical parameters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification of a new circulating recombinant form of human immunodeficiency virus type 1, CRF124_cpx involving subtypes A, G, H, and CRF27_cpx in Angola

Angola, located in Central Africa, has around 320,000 (270,000–380,000) people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS, equivalent to 1% of the country’s population at the end of 2021. A previous study conducted in 2012, using Angolan samples collected between 2008 and 2010 revealed a high prevalence of HIV-1 recombinants, around 42% of sequences, with 21% showing the same UH profile in partial pol region which were grouped into a monophyletic cluster with high bootstrap support. Thus, the objective of the present work was to obtain complete genomes of those sequences and characterize them, aiming at a description of a new circulating recombinant form (CRF). Whole blood from nine HIV-1 UH pol -infected individuals had their genomic DNA extracted, and nested PCR was used to amplify seven overlapping fragments targeting the full-length HIV-1 genome. The final classification was based on maximum likelihood trees, and recombination analyses were performed using a bootscan from the Simplot program. BLAST and Los Alamos Database inspections were used to search other similar H-like pol sequences. Complete genome amplification was possible for three samples, partial genomes were obtained for the other three, and only pol was available for the remaining three sequences. Bootscan analysis of the two whole-genome and three partial genome sequences retrieved from people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIVA) without epidemiological linkage showed the same complex recombination profile involving HIV-1 subtypes A/G/H/CRF27_cpx, with a total of six recombinant breakpoints, aiming to classify a new HIV-1 CRF124_cpx. We found no other full-length HIV-1 genomes with the same mosaic profile; however, we identified 33 partial pol sequences, mainly sampled from Angola between 2001 to 2019, with the same H-like profile. Bayesian analysis of H and H-like pol sequences indicates that CRF124_cpx probably originated in Angola at mid-1970s, indicating that this CRF has been circulating in the country for a long time. In summary, our study describes a new CRF circulating principally in Angola and highlights the importance of continuing molecular surveillance studies, especially in countries with high molecular diversity of HIV.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: OBSERVATIONS, ARRIVAL TIME MEASUREMENTS, AND ANALYSIS OF 37 MILLISECOND PULSARS

We present high-precision timing observations spanning up to nine years for 37 millisecond pulsars monitored with the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project. We describe the observational and instrumental setups used to collect the data, and methodology applied for calculating pulse times of arrival; these include novel methods for measuring instrumental offsets and characterizing low signal-to-noise ratio timing results. The time of arrival data are fit to a physical timing model for each source, including terms that characterize time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-dependent pulse shape evolution. In conjunction with the timing model fit, we have performed a Bayesian analysis of a parameterized timing noise model for each source, and detect evidence for excess low-frequency, or “red,” timing noise in 10 of the pulsars. For 5 of these cases this is likely due to interstellar medium propagation effects rather than intrisic spin variations. Subsequent papers in this series will present further analysis of this data set aimed at detecting or limiting the presence of nanohertz-frequency gravitational wave signals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

What’s Driving Uncertainty? The Model or the Model Parameters (What’s Driving Uncertainty? The influences of model and model parameters in data analysis)

Here, one of the substantial improvements to the practice of data analysis in recent decades is the change from reporting just a point estimate for a parameter or characteristic, to now including a summary of uncertainty for that estimate. Understanding the precision of the estimate for the quantity of interest provides better understanding of what to expect and how well we are able to predict future behavior from the process. For example, when we report a sample average as an estimate of the population mean, it is good practice to also provide a confidence interval (or credible interval, if you are doing a Bayesian analysis) to accompany that summary. This helps to calibrate what ranges of values are reasonable given the variability observed in the sample and the amount of data that were included in producing the summary.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Modeling convective core overshoot and diffusion in Procyon constrained by asteroseismic data

We compare evolved stellar models, which match Procyon's mass and position in the HR diagram, to current ground-based asteroseismic observations. Diffusion of helium and metals along with two conventional core overshoot descriptions and the Kuhfuss nonlocal theory of convection are considered. We establish that one of the two published asteroseismic data reductions for Procyon, which mainly differ in their identification of even versus odd l values, is a significantly more probable and self-consistent match to our models than the other. The most probable models according to our Bayesian analysis have evolved to just short of turnoff, still retaining a hydrogen convective core. Our most probable models include Y and Z diffusion and have conventional core overshoot between 0.9 and 1.5 pressure scale heights, which increases the outer radius of the convective core by between 36% and 43%, respectively. We discuss the significance of this comparatively higher than expected core overshoot amount in terms of internal mixing during evolution. The parameters of our most probable models are similar regardless of whether adiabatic or nonadiabatic model p-mode frequencies are compared to the observations, although, the Bayesian probabilities are greater when the nonadiabatic model frequencies are used. All the most probable models (with or without core overshoot, adiabatic or nonadiabatic model frequencies, diffusion or no diffusion, including priors for the observed HRD location and mass or not) have masses that are within 1σ of the observed mass 1.497 ± 0.037 M {sub ☉}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

OGLE-2016-BLG-1227L: A Wide-separation Planet from a Very Short-timescale Microlensing Event

We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-1227. The light curve of this short-duration event appears to be a single-lens event affected by severe finite-source effects. Analysis of the light curve based on a single-lens single-source (1L1S) model yields very small values of the event timescale, t{sub E}∼3.5 days, and the angular Einstein radius, θ{sub E}∼0.009 mas, making the lens a candidate of a free-floating planet. Close inspection reveals that the 1L1S solution leaves small residuals with an amplitude of ΔI ≲ 0.03 mag. We find that the residuals are explained by the existence of an additional widely separated heavier lens component, indicating that the lens is a wide-separation planetary system rather than a free-floating planet. From Bayesian analysis, it is estimated that the planet has a mass of M{sub p}=0.79{sub −0.39}{sup +1.30} M{sub J} and it is orbiting a low-mass host star with a mass of M{sub host}=0.10{sub −0.05}{sup +0.17} M{sub ⊙} located with a projected separation of a{sub ⊥}=3.4{sub −1.0}{sup +2.1} au. The planetary system is located in the Galactic bulge with a line-of-sight separation from the source star of D{sub LS}=1.21{sub −0.63}{sup +0.96} kpc. The event shows that there is a range of deviations in the signatures of host stars for apparently isolated planetary lensing events and that it is possible to identify a host even when a deviation is subtle.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

MOA-2008-BLG-379Lb: A massive planet from a high magnification event with a faint source

We report on the analysis of the high microlensing event MOA-2008-BLG-379, which has a strong microlensing anomaly at its peak due to a massive planet with a mass ratio of q = 6.9 × 10{sup –3}. Because the faint source star crosses the large resonant caustic, the planetary signal dominates the light curve. This is unusual for planetary microlensing events, and as a result, the planetary nature of this light curve was not immediately noticed. The planetary nature of the event was found when the Microlensing Observations in Astrophysics (MOA) Collaboration conducted a systematic study of binary microlensing events previously identified by the MOA alert system. We have conducted a Bayesian analysis based on a standard Galactic model to estimate the physical parameters of the lens system. This yields a host star mass of M{sub L}=3.3{sub −1.2}{sup +1.7} M{sub ⊙} orbited by a planet of mass m{sub P}=0.56{sub −0.27}{sup +0.24} M{sub Jup} at an orbital separation of a=3.3{sub −1.2}{sup +1.3} AU at a distance of D{sub L}=4.1{sub −1.9}{sup +1.7} kpc. The faint source magnitude of I {sub S} = 21.30 and relatively high lens-source relative proper motion of μ{sub rel} = 7.6 ± 1.6 mas yr{sup –1} imply that high angular resolution adaptive optics or Hubble Space Telescope observations are likely to be able to detect the source star, which would determine the masses and distance of the planet and its host star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

CODEX weak lensing: concentration of galaxy clusters at z ~ 0.5

Here, we present a stacked weak-lensing analysis of 27 richness selected galaxy clusters at 0.40 ≤ z ≤ 0.62 in the COnstrain Dark Energy with X-ray galaxy clusters (CODEX) survey. The fields were observed in five bands with the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope (CFHT). We measure the stacked surface mass density profile with a 14σ significance in the radial range 0.1 < RMpch -1 < 2.5. The profile is well described by the halo model, with the main halo term following a Navarro–Frenk–White profile (NFW) profile and including the off-centring effect. We select the background sample using a conservative colour–magnitude method to reduce the potential systematic errors and contamination by cluster member galaxies. We perform a Bayesian analysis for the stacked profile and constrain the best-fitting NFW parameters M 200c =6.6$+1.0\atop{-0.8}$×10 14 h -1 M⊙ and c 200c =3.7$+0.7\atop{-0.6}$. The off-centring effect was modelled based on previous observational results found for redMaPPer Sloan Digital Sky Survey clusters. Our constraints on M200c and c200c allow us to investigate the consistency with numerical predictions and select a concentration–mass relation to describe the high richness CODEX sample. Comparing our best-fitting values for M200c and c200c with other observational surveys at different redshifts, we find no evidence for evolution in the concentration–mass relation, though it could be mitigated by particular selection functions. Similar to previous studies investigating the X-ray luminosity–mass relation, our data suggest a lower evolution than expected from self-similarity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Deep-inelastic and quasielastic electron scattering from A = 3 nuclei

We perform a combined analysis of inclusive electron scattering data from $A=3$ nuclei in the deep-inelastic and quasielastic scattering regions, using Monte Carlo analysis methods and the nuclear weak binding approximation to establish the range over which the data can be described within the same theoretical framework. Comparison with quasielastic $^3$He cross sections from SLAC and Jefferson Lab suggests that most features of the $x \gtrsim 1$ data can be reasonably well described in the impulse approximation with finite-$Q^2$ nuclear smearing functions for momentum transfers $Q^2 \gtrsim 1$~GeV$^2$. For the DIS region, we analyze the recent $^3$He to deuterium cross section ratio from the Jefferson Lab E03-103 experiment to explore the possible isospin dependence of the nuclear effects. We discuss the implications of this for the MARATHON experiment, and outline how a Bayesian analysis of $^3$He, $^3$H and deuterium data can robustly determine the free neutron structure function.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Empirical radius formulas for canonical neutron stars from bidirectionally selecting features of equations of state in extended Bayesian analyses of observational data

Significant advancement in Bayesian inference of nuclear equation of state (EOS) from gravitational wave and x-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) has been made by the nuclear astrophysics community especially since GW170817. By extending the traditional Bayesian analysis which normally ends at presenting the marginalized posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of individual EOS parameters and their correlations (or sometimes only the Pearson correlation coefficients which are only reliably useful when the variables are linearly correlated while they are actually often not), we search for a data-driven and robust empirical formula for the radius 𝑅 1.4 of canonical NSs in terms of the characteristic EOS parameters (features). We also identify the single most important but currently poorly known EOS parameter for determining the 𝑅 1.4 . Using three regression-model-building methodologies: bidirectional stepwise feature selection, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression, and neural network regression on a large set of posterior EOSs and the corresponding 𝑅 1.4 values inferred from earlier comprehensive Bayesian analyses of NS observational data, we systematically and rigorously develop the most probable 𝑅 1.4 formulas with varying statistical accuracy and technical complexity. Here, the most important EOS parameters for determining 𝑅 1.4 are found consistently in each of the feature selection processes to be (in order of decreasing importance): curvature 𝐾 sym , slope 𝐿, skewness 𝐽 sym of nuclear symmetry energy, skewness 𝐽 0 , incompressibility 𝐾 0 of symmetric nuclear matter, and the magnitude 𝐸 sym ⁡(𝜌 0 ) of symmetry energy at the saturation density 𝜌 0 of nuclear matter.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2020

One Planet or Two Planets? The Ultra-sensitive Extreme-magnification Microlensing Event KMT-2019-BLG-1953

We present the analysis of a very high-magnification (A ∼ 900) microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-1953. A single-lens single-source (1L1S) model appears to approximately delineate the observed light curve, but the residuals from the model exhibit small but obvious deviations in the peak region. A binary-lens (2L1S) model with a mass ratio of q ∼ 2 × 10{sup −3} improves the fits by Δχ {sup 2} = 181.8, indicating that the lens possesses a planetary companion. From additional modeling by introducing an extra planetary lens component (3L1S model) and an extra source companion (2L2S model), it is found that the residuals from the 2L1S model further diminish, but claiming these interpretations is difficult due to the weak signals with Δχ {sup 2} = 16.0 and 13.5 for the 3L1S and 2L2L models, respectively. From a Bayesian analysis, we estimate that the host of the planets has a mass of M{sub host}=0.31{sub −0.17}{sup +0.37} M{sub ⊙} and that the planetary system is located at a distance of D{sub L}=7.04{sub −1.33}{sup +1.10} kpc toward the Galactic center. The mass of the securely detected planet is M{sub p}=0.64{sub −0.35}{sup +0.76} M{sub J}. The signal of the potential second planet could have been confirmed if the peak of the light curve had been more densely observed by follow-up observations, and thus the event illustrates the need for intensive follow-up observations for very high-magnification events even in the current generation of high-cadence surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗