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The objective of this document is to report the biokinetics of inhaled 238 Pu inferred from the Bayesian analysis of bioassay data collected from workers who have had an intake resulting in a reportable dose within the last two decades at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL).
We investigate how inflation model selection is affected by the presence of additional free-streaming relativistic degrees of freedom, i.e. dark radiation. We perform a full Bayesian analysis of both inflation parameters and cosmological parameters taking reheating into account self-consistently. We compute the Bayesian evidence for a few representative inflation scenarios in both the standard ΛCDM model and an extension including dark radiation parametrised by its effective number of relativistic species N {sub eff}. Using a minimal dataset (Planck low-ℓ polarisation, temperature power spectrum and lensing reconstruction), we find that the observational status of most inflationary models is unchanged. The exceptions are potentials such as power-law inflation that predict large values for the scalar spectral index that can only be realised when N {sub eff} is allowed to vary. Adding baryon acoustic oscillations data and the B-mode data from BICEP2/Keck makes power-law inflation disfavoured, while adding local measurements of the Hubble constant H {sub 0} makes power-law inflation slightly favoured compared to the best single-field plateau potentials. This illustrates how the dark radiation solution to the H {sub 0} tension would have deep consequences for inflation model selection.
The initial state is one of the greatest uncertainties in heavy-ion collisions. A model-agnostic approach is taken in the phenomenological Trento framework which constrains parameters using Bayesian analysis. However, the color-glass condensate (CGC) effective theory predicts initial energy densities that lie outside the recent Bayesian analyses due, in part, to the assumption in Trento of event-by-event multiplicity fluctuations following a Γ distribution. We compare the Trento-preferred √T A T B scaling to CGC-like T A T B scaling coupled with log-normal fluctuations in AuAu and dAu collisions and find there is a significant impact on the multiplicity distributions and on the eccentricities, which may affect the extraction of viscosity in small systems.
As risk-informed applications (RIAs) are actively implanted in the nuclear industry, an issue associated with technical adequacy of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) arises in its modeling and data sourcing. In Korea, PSA for all Korean NPPs has been completed and KHNP(Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Plant Company) developed the database called the Plant Reliability Data Information System (PRinS). It has several characteristics that distinguish it from other database system such as NPRDs (INPO,1994), PRIS (IAEA), and SRDF (EdF). This database has the function of systematic data management such as automatic data-gathering, periodic data deposition and updating, statistical analysis including Bayesian method, and trend analysis of failure rate or unavailability. In recent PSA for CANDU reactor, the component failure data of EPRI ALWR URD and Component Reliability Database were preferentially used as generic data set. The error factor for most component failure data was estimated by using the information NUREG/CR-4550 and NUREG/CR-4639. Also, annual trend analysis was performed for the functional losses of components using the statistical analysis and chart module of PRinS. Furthermore, the database has been updated regularly and maintained as a living program to reflect the current status. This paper presents the failure data analysis using PRinS which provides Bayesian analysis on main components in the CANDU reactor. (authors)
Inverse problems play a central role in experimentation and theory/data comparisons for many areas of modern Nuclear Physics (NP) and High-Energy Physics (HEP). Bayes’s Theorem is a powerful tool for solving Inverse Problems, providing conceptually transparent and unbiased constraints on theoretical parameters and their uncertainties (“Bayesian Inference”) and enabling the quantification of agreement or tension between models and data. However, analyses based on Bayesian Inference are often challenging for NP and HEP applications, either because of the large number of parameters in the problem, the high computational cost, or both. We propose a multi-institutional collaboration to develop and deploy novel Bayesian analysis tools that advance the scientific scope of a broad range of current and future NP experiments. This project brings together NP domain scientists working on several high-profile NP projects for which new, high-performance Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (“Bayesian UQ”) methods are essential to carry out the science, and data scientists who are developing state-of-the-art methods applicable to these problems. The NP projects in this proposal comprise measurements of the mass and fundamental nature of the neutrino; study of the Quark-Gluon Plasma that filled the early universe; and mapping of natural and anthropogenic radiation environments. While these NP projects have very different scientific goals, with datasets and analysis approaches that differ significantly, they share common requirements for improving computationally intensive Bayesian analyses using advanced Machine Learning algorithms and will benefit strongly from a coherent effort to develop general solutions. This proposal brings together these projects and forefront ML-based data science algorithms to develop such general solutions. The methods developed in this project will also be more widely applicable, thereby advancing science in the larger Nuclear Physics portfolio.
We present BayeSED, a general purpose tool for Bayesian analysis of spectral energy distributions (SEDs) using pre-existing model SED libraries or their linear combinations. The artificial neural networks, principal component analysis, and multimodal-nested sampling (MultiNest) techniques are employed to allow the highly efficient sampling of posterior distribution and the calculation of Bayesian evidence. As a demonstration, we apply this tool to a sample of hyperluminous infrared galaxies (HLIRGs). The Bayesian evidence obtained for a pure starburst, a pure active galactic nucleus (AGN), and a linear combination of starburst+AGN models show that the starburst+AGN model has the highest evidence for all galaxies in this sample. The Bayesian evidence for the three models and the estimated contributions of starbursts and AGNs to infrared luminosity show that HLIRGs can be classified into two groups: one dominated by starbursts and the other dominated by AGNs. Other parameters and corresponding uncertainties about starbursts and AGNs are also estimated using the model with the highest Bayesian evidence. We find that the starburst region of the HLIRGs dominated by starbursts tends to be more compact and has a higher fraction of OB stars than that of HLIRGs dominated by AGNs. Meanwhile, the AGN torus of the HLIRGs dominated by AGNs tends to be more dusty than that of HLIRGs dominated by starbursts. These results are consistent with previous researches, but need to be tested further with larger samples. Overall, we believe that BayeSED could be a reliable and efficient tool for exploring the nature of complex systems such as dust-obscured starburst-AGN composite systems by decoding their SEDs.
This repository provides the code and datasets used in the paper Bayesian Analysis of Linear Shock Compression Data. This paper analyzes publicly available shock compression datasets on copper, argon, and nickel from Marsh (1980) using Bayesian linear regression, and compares the results with those obtained using bootstrapping methods. References: - Marsh, S. P. (1980). LASL shock Hugoniot data (Vol. 5). Univ of California Press.
Racial inequities in maternal mortality in the U.S. continue to be stark. The 2015–2018, 4-year total population, county-level, pregnancy-related mortality ratio (PRM; deaths per 100,000 live births; National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), restricted use mortality file) was linked with the Public Health Exposome (PHE). Using data reduction techniques, 1591 variables were extracted from over 62,000 variables for use in this analysis, providing information on the relationships between PRM and the social, health and health care, natural, and built environments. Graph theoretical algorithms and Bayesian analysis were applied to PHE/PRM linked data to identify latent networks. PHE variables most strongly correlated with total population PRM were years of potential life lost and overall life expectancy. Population-level indicators of PRM were overall poverty, smoking, lack of exercise, heat, and lack of adequate access to food. In this high-dimensional analysis, overall life expectancy, poverty indicators, and health behaviors were found to be the strongest predictors of pregnancy-related mortality. This provides strong evidence that maternal death is part of a broader constellation of both similar and unique health behaviors, social determinants and environmental exposures as other causes of death.
The multi-energy soft x-ray (ME-SXR) camera is a new concept for a fusion plasma diagnostic based on a pixelated detector with adjustable photon cutoff thresholds. It is a single, compact, solid-state detector which combines spatial and spectral sensitivity and can be configured remotely at run time, making it ideal for a fusion environment. The detector can be configured for application to a wide range of physics problems including impurity transport, electron temperature profiles, and non-thermal effects. The detector has been installed on the Madison Symmetric Torus (MST) as part of a collaboration between Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and the University of Wisconsin–Madison to develop the technology and analysis techniques. A full diagnostic forward model of the ME-SXR diagnostic has been developed to enable analysis of the raw photon count data. This model incorporates the atomic physics underlying the plasma emission, diagnostic geometry, and detector response characteristics. Employing this model, a Bayesian analysis approach is used to extract electron temperature from the raw data. This analysis approach uses all available information, clearly quantifies prior information, and handles uncertainties transparently. The ME-SXR camera is being used to study the 3D (helical, stellarator-like) state that forms in the MST device. This helical core structure has improved energy confinement. The transition to the helical state is accompanied by a rise in electron temperature in the central part of the helical structure, but then this enhancement fluctuates. The characteristics of this fluctuation are being compared to a magneto-hydrodynamics model.
Here, we perform the first simultaneous Bayesian parameter inference and optimal reconstruction of the gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), using 100 deg 2 of polarization observations from the SPTpol receiver on the South Pole Telescope. These data reach noise levels as low as 5.8 μK arcmin in polarization, which are low enough that the typically used quadratic estimator (QE) technique for analyzing CMB lensing is significantly suboptimal. Conversely, the Bayesian procedure extracts all lensing information from the data and is optimal at any noise level. We infer the amplitude of the gravitational lensing potential to be ${A}_{\phi }=0.949\,\pm \,0.122$ using the Bayesian pipeline, consistent with our QE pipeline result, but with 17% smaller error bars. The Bayesian analysis also provides a simple way to account for systematic uncertainties, performing a similar job as frequentist "bias hardening" or linear bias correction, and reducing the systematic uncertainty on A Φ due to polarization calibration from almost half of the statistical error to effectively zero. Finally, we jointly constrain A Φ along with A L , the amplitude of lensing-like effects on the CMB power spectra, demonstrating that the Bayesian method can be used to easily infer parameters both from an optimal lensing reconstruction and from the delensed CMB, while exactly accounting for the correlation between the two. These results demonstrate the feasibility of the Bayesian approach on real data, and pave the way for future analysis of deep CMB polarization measurements with SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, and CMB-S4, where improvements relative to the QE can reach 1.5 times tighter constraints on A Φ and seven times lower effective lensing reconstruction noise.
This paper presents an overview of recent hardware extensions and data analysis developments to the Wendelstein 7-X visible core spectroscopy systems. These include upgrades to prepare the in-vessel components for long-pulse operation, nine additional spectrometers, a new line of sight array for passive spectroscopy, and a coherence imaging charge exchange spectroscopy diagnostic. Progress in data analysis includes ion temperatures and densities from multiple impurity species, a statistical comparison with x-ray crystal spectrometer measurements, neutral density measurements from thermal passive Balmer-alpha emission, and a Bayesian analysis of active hydrogen emission, which is able to infer electron density and main ion temperature profiles.
This article reports on the development of a 'harmonized' PBPK model for the toxicokinetics of perchloroethylene (tetrachloroethylene or perc) in mice, rats, and humans that includes both oxidation and glutathione (GSH) conjugation of perc, the internal kinetics of the oxidative metabolite trichloroacetic acid (TCA), and the urinary excretion kinetics of the GSH conjugation metabolites N-Acetylated trichlorovinyl cysteine and dichloroacetic acid. The model utilizes a wider range of in vitro and in vivo data than any previous analysis alone, with in vitro data used for initial, or 'baseline,' parameter estimates, and in vivo datasets separated into those used for 'calibration' and those used for 'evaluation.' Parameter calibration utilizes a limited Bayesian analysis involving flat priors and making inferences only using posterior modes obtained via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). As expected, the major route of elimination of absorbed perc is predicted to be exhalation as parent compound, with metabolism accounting for less than 20% of intake except in the case of mice exposed orally, in which metabolism is predicted to be slightly over 50% at lower exposures. In all three species, the concentration of perc in blood, the extent of perc oxidation, and the amount of TCA production is well-estimated, with residual uncertainties of {approx} 2-fold. However, the resulting range of estimates for the amount of GSH conjugation is quite wide in humans ({approx} 3000-fold) and mice ({approx} 60-fold). While even high-end estimates of GSH conjugation in mice are lower than estimates of oxidation, in humans the estimated rates range from much lower to much higher than rates for perc oxidation. It is unclear to what extent this range reflects uncertainty, variability, or a combination. Importantly, by separating total perc metabolism into separate oxidative and conjugative pathways, an approach also recommended in a recent National Research Council review, this analysis reconciles the disparity between those previously published PBPK models that concluded low perc metabolism in humans and those that predicted high perc metabolism in humans. In essence, both conclusions are consistent with the data if augmented with some additional qualifications: in humans, oxidative metabolism is low, while GSH conjugation metabolism may be high or low, with uncertainty and/or interindividual variability spanning three orders of magnitude. More direct data on the internal kinetics of perc GSH conjugation, such as trichlorovinyl glutathione or tricholorvinyl cysteine in blood and/or tissues, would be needed to better characterize the uncertainty and variability in GSH conjugation in humans. - Research Highlights: >We analyze perchloroethylene (perc) toxicokinetics with a physiological model. >Results from previous analyses lumping metabolic pathways are inconsistent. >Separately tracking oxidation and conjugation pathways reconciles these results. >Available data are adequate for predicting perc blood levels and oxidation by P450. >High uncertainty remains for human conjugation of perc with glutathione.
The 12 C (𝛼,𝛾) 16 O reaction, an important component of stellar helium burning, has a key role in nuclear astrophysics. It has significant impact on the evolution and final state of heavy to low mass stars, maximum mass of stellar formed black holes and also shapes the elemental abundances resulting from nucleosynthesis in such stars. Providing a reliable estimate for the energy dependence of this reaction at stellar helium burning temperatures has been a longstanding and important goal. In this work, we study the role of potential new 𝐸1 and 𝐸2 measurements of the 16 O (𝑒,𝑒′𝛼) 12 C reaction in reducing the overall uncertainty in the astrophysical 𝑆 factor for the 12 C (𝛼,𝛾) 16 O 𝐸1 and 𝐸2 ground state capture extrapolated to a stellar energy of 300 keV. A multilevel 𝑅-matrix analysis is used to make extrapolations of the 𝑆 𝐸1 (300 keV) and 𝑆 𝐸2 (300 keV) factors for the 12 C (𝛼,𝛾) 16 O reaction from existing ground state capture data. Bayesian analysis is used to quantify the uncertainties in the extrapolations for both the existing data alone and also when possible new experimental data are included. In particular, we consider a new experiment that would make use of a high-intensity low-energy electron beam that impinges on a windowless oxygen gas target as a means to determine the total 𝐸1 and 𝐸2 ground state cross sections for this reaction. Here we find that the new data could significantly reduce the 𝑆(300) uncertainties. Splitting the new data into high and low energy regions shows that both low and high energy data are effective in reducing the uncertainty.
The evolution of single-particle strengths as the neutron-to-proton asymmetry changes informs us of the importance of short- and long-range correlations in nuclei and has therefore been extensively studied for the last two decades. Surprisingly, the strong asymmetry dependence of these strengths and their extreme values for highly asymmetric nuclei inferred from knockout reaction measurements on a target nucleus are not consistent with what is extracted from electron-induced, transfer, and quasi-free reaction data, constituting a two-decade old puzzle. This work presents the first consistent analysis of one-nucleon transfer and one-nucleon knockout data, in which theoretical uncertainties associated with the nucleon-nucleus effective interactions considered in the reaction models are quantified using a Bayesian analysis. Here, our results demonstrate that, taking into account these uncertainties, the spectroscopic strengths of loosely bound nucleons extracted from both probes agree with each other and, although there are still discrepancies for deeply bound nucleons, the slope of the asymmetry dependence of the single-particle strengths inferred from transfer and knockout reactions are consistent within 1 σ . Both probes are consistent with a small asymmetry dependence of these strengths. The uncertainties obtained in this work represent a lower bound and are already significantly larger than the original estimates.
One of the main challenges of modern cosmology is to investigate the nature of dark energy in our Universe. The properties of such a component are normally summarised as a perfect fluid with a (potentially) time-dependent equation-of-state parameter w(z). We investigate the evolution of this parameter with redshift by performing a Bayesian analysis of current cosmological observations. We model the temporal evolution as piecewise linear in redshift between 'nodes', whose w-values and redshifts are allowed to vary. The optimal number of nodes is chosen by the Bayesian evidence. In this way, we can both determine the complexity supported by current data and locate any features present in w(z). We compare this node-based reconstruction with some previously well-studied parameterisations: the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL), the Jassal-Bagla-Padmanabhan (JBP) and the Felice-Nesseris-Tsujikawa (FNT). By comparing the Bayesian evidence for all of these models we find an indication towards possible time-dependence in the dark energy equation-of-state. It is also worth noting that the CPL and JBP models are strongly disfavoured, whilst the FNT is just significantly disfavoured, when compared to a simple cosmological constant w = −1. We find that our node-based reconstruction model is slightly disfavoured with respect to the ΛCDM model.
On-line monitoring and tracking of nuclear plant system and component degradation is being investigated as a method for improving the safety, reliability, and maintainability of aging nuclear power plants. Accurate prediction of the current degradation state of system components and structures is important for accurate estimates of their remaining useful life (RUL). The correct quantification and propagation of both the measurement uncertainty and model uncertainty is necessary for quantifying the uncertainty of the RUL prediction. This research project developed and validated methods to perform RUL estimation throughout the lifecycle of plant components. Prognostic methods should seamlessly operate from beginning of component life (BOL) to end of component life (EOL). We term this "Lifecycle Prognostics." When a component is put into use, the only information available may be past failure times of similar components used in similar conditions, and the predicted failure distribution can be estimated with reliability methods such as Weibull Analysis (Type I Prognostics). As the component operates, it begins to degrade and consume its available life. This life consumption may be a function of system stresses, and the failure distribution should be updated to account for the system operational stress levels (Type II Prognostics). When degradation becomes apparent, this information can be used to again improve the RUL estimate (Type III Prognostics). This research focused on developing prognostics algorithms for the three types of prognostics, developing uncertainty quantification methods for each of the algorithms, and, most importantly, developing a framework using Bayesian methods to transition between prognostic model types and update failure distribution estimates as new information becomes available. The developed methods were then validated on a range of accelerated degradation test beds. The ultimate goal of prognostics is to provide an accurate assessment for RUL predictions, with as little uncertainty as possible. From a reliability and maintenance standpoint, there would be improved safety by avoiding all failures. Calculated risk would decrease, saving money by avoiding unnecessary maintenance. One major bottleneck for data-driven prognostics is the availability of run-to-failure degradation data. Without enough degradation data leading to failure, prognostic models can yield RUL distributions with large uncertainty or mathematically unsound predictions. To address these issues a "Lifecycle Prognostics" method was developed to create RUL distributions from Beginning of Life (BOL) to End of Life (EOL). This employs established Type I, II, and III prognostic methods, and Bayesian transitioning between each Type. Bayesian methods, as opposed to classical frequency statistics, show how an expected value, a priori, changes with new data to form a posterior distribution. For example, when you purchase a component you have a prior belief, or estimation, of how long it will operate before failing. As you operate it, you may collect information related to its condition that will allow you to update your estimated failure time. Bayesian methods are best used when limited data are available. The use of a prior also means that information is conserved when new data are available. The weightings of the prior belief and information contained in the sampled data are dependent on the variance (uncertainty) of the prior, the variance (uncertainty) of the data, and the amount of measured data (number of samples). If the variance of the prior is small compared to the uncertainty of the data, the prior will be weighed more heavily. However, as more data are collected, the data will be weighted more heavily and will eventually swamp out the prior in calculating the posterior distribution of model parameters. Fundamentally Bayesian analysis updates a prior belief with new data to get a posterior belief. The general approach to applying the Bayesian method to lifecycle prognostics consisted of identifying the prior, which is the RUL estimate and uncertainty from the previous prognostics type, and combining it with observational data related to the newer prognostics type. The resulting lifecycle prognostics algorithm uses all available information throughout the component lifecycle.
Abstract We present our determination of the baryon budget for an X-ray-selected XXL sample of 136 galaxy groups and clusters spanning nearly two orders of magnitude in mass (M500 ∼ 1013–1015 M⊙) and the redshift range 0 ≲ z ≲ 1. Our joint analysis is based on the combination of Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP) weak-lensing mass measurements, XXL X-ray gas mass measurements, and HSC and Sloan Digital Sky Survey multiband photometry. We carry out a Bayesian analysis of multivariate mass-scaling relations of gas mass, galaxy stellar mass, stellar mass of brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs), and soft-band X-ray luminosity, by taking into account the intrinsic covariance between cluster properties, selection effect, weak-lensing mass calibration, and observational error covariance matrix. The mass-dependent slope of the gas mass–total mass (M500) relation is found to be $1.29_{-0.10}^{+0.16}$, which is steeper than the self-similar prediction of unity, whereas the slope of the stellar mass–total mass relation is shallower than unity; $0.85_{-0.09}^{+0.12}$. The BCG stellar mass weakly depends on cluster mass with a slope of $0.49_{-0.10}^{+0.11}$. The baryon, gas mass, and stellar mass fractions as a function of M500 agree with the results from numerical simulations and previous observations. We successfully constrain the full intrinsic covariance of the baryonic contents. The BCG stellar mass shows the larger intrinsic scatter at a given halo total mass, followed in order by stellar mass and gas mass. We find a significant positive intrinsic correlation coefficient between total (and satellite) stellar mass and BCG stellar mass and no evidence for intrinsic correlation between gas mass and stellar mass. All the baryonic components show no redshift evolution.
In this paper, we describe the Bayesian Analysis of Nuclear Dynamics (BAND) framework, a cyberinfrastructure that we are developing which will unify the treatment of nuclear models, experimental data, and associated uncertainties. We overview the statistical principles and nuclear-physics contexts underlying the BAND toolset, with an emphasis on Bayesian methodology's ability to leverage insight from multiple models. In order to facilitate understanding of these tools we provide a simple and accessible example of the BAND framework's application. Four case studies are presented to highlight how elements of the framework will enable progress on complex, far-ranging problems in nuclear physics. By collecting notation and terminology, providing illustrative examples, and giving an overview of the associated techniques, this paper aims to open paths through which the nuclear physics and statistics communities can contribute to and build upon the BAND framework.