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At least 163 records · Page 9

Elucidating and predicting the dynamic evolution of water and land systems due to natural and energy-related forcings

Focal Area(s): 3. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI; & 1. Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, unsupervised learning (including deep learning), and hardware-related efforts involving AI (e.g., edge computing). Science Challenge: Interactions between water, land, and energy systems are complex and occur on a variety of scales, ranging from local to basinal to regional. Accurately predicting the behavior of ground water and surface water systems for 5-10 years and beyond requires an understanding of the current system and the ability to model both the natural system at scale and human-induced forcings related to energy and other activities. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) combined with modern compilation and integration efforts for U.S. groundwater and surface water systems present potential solutions to bolstering detailed physics-based models of these systems. Big data tied with ML and physics-based modeling can drive breakthroughs in understanding the earth system, but research is often impeded by data access (e.g., privacy issues), quality, formats, gaps, multi-source, multi-scale, integration, and spatiotemporal challenges. Effective integration of real data and simulated (synthetic) data that fill gaps is critical. Overcoming these complex data and model integration challenges will enable a transformational approach to acquiring enhanced understanding of environmental systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data Analysis of the 2020 Central Idaho Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence

In an effort to inform the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee for the Idaho National Laboratory, we provide an improved aftershock catalog related to the March 31, 2020, Mw6.5 Stanley, Idaho earthquake from picks related to a temporary network of two real-time and 15 non-telemetered seismometers within the epicentral area. From the permanent and temporary (XP) real-time network, the USGS cataloged 1,946 aftershocks between April 1, 2020 and October 31, 2020. To improve aftershock location and magnitudes, we manually picked arrival times of P and S waves from off-line stations in the XP temporary network, generated a new crustal velocity model, and independently relocated each event using the HypoDD double-difference earthquake algorithm. We created our new velocity model from existing broadband and active source seismic campaign data that were acquired near the epicentral region prior to the 2020 earthquake. We compare arrival time differences, epicentral locations and depths between aftershocks recorded with the two catalogs. We find the addition of local stations provides tighter aftershock clustering that suggests an improved aftershock locations. To detect lower magnitude events, we employed deep learning. Our method solves common problems associated with detecting many events that have a low signal-to-noise ratio. From the machine learning database, we detected more than 74,000 aftershocks. Based on the number of identified earthquakes and Gutenberg-Richter relationships derived from the USGS catalog, we estimate that we have reduced the completion magnitude for the Stanley earthquake sequence to below M1 using this machine learning approach. We located each aftershock with our new velocity model. Our new velocity model and picks suggests aftershocks occurred mostly at shallower depths than assessed in the USGS catalog. These aftershocks align along two linear trends that suggest the activation of two unnamed primary faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluate ERTS imagery for mapping and detection of changes of snowcover on land and on glaciers

The author has identified the following significant results. The standard error of measurement of snow covered areas in major drainage basins in the Cascade Range, Washington, using single measurements of ERTS-1 images, was found to range from 11% to 7% during a typical melt season, but was as high as 32% in midwinter. Many dangerous glacier situations in Alaska, Yukon, and British Columbia were observed on ERTS-1 imagery. Glacier dammed lakes in Alaska are being monitored by ERTS-1. Embayments in tidal glaciers show changes detectable by ERTS-1. Surges of Russell and Tweedsmuir Glaciers, now in progress, are clearly visible. The Tweedsmuir surge is likely to dam the large Alsek River by mid-November, producing major floods down-river next summer. An ERTS-1 image of the Pamir Mountains, Tadjik S.S.R., shows the surging Medvezhii (Bear) Glacier just after its surge of early summer which dammed the Abdukagor Valley creating a huge lake and later a flood in the populous Vanch River Valley. A map was compiled from an ERTS-1 image of the Lowell Glacier after its recent surge, compared with an earlier map compiled from pain-stakingly compiled from a mosaic of many aerial photographs, in a total elapsed time of 1.5 hours. This demonstrates the value of ERTS-1 for rapid mapping of large features.

Meier, M. F.↗

Geodetic measurement of deformation in the Ventura basin region, southern California

We have measured the deformation in the Ventura basin region, southern California, with Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements carried out over 4.6 years between 1987 and 1992. The deformation within our network is spatically variable on scales of tens of kilometers, with strain rates reaching 0.6 +/- 1 micro-rad/yr in the east-central basin. Blocklike rotations are observed south and northwest of the basin where the maximum shear strain rates are an order of magnitude lower (0.06 +/- 1 micro-rad/yr to the south). We also observed clockwise rotations of 1 deg - 7 deg/m.y. Shear strain rates determined by comparing angle changes from historical triangulation spanning several decades and GPS measurements give consistent, though less precise, results. The geodetic rates of shortening across the basin and Western Transverse Ranges are lower than those estimated from geological observations, but the patterns of deformation from the two methods agree qualitatively.

Donnellan, Andrea↗

Decomposition of the Mean Squared Error and NSE Performance Criteria: Implications for Improving Hydrological Modelling

The mean squared error (MSE) and the related normalization, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), are the two criteria most widely used for calibration and evaluation of hydrological models with observed data. Here, we present a diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE (and hence MSE), which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and show how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions among these components. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating a simple conceptual precipitation-runoff model to daily data for a number of Austrian basins having a broad range of hydro-meteorological characteristics. Evaluation of the results clearly demonstrates the problems that can be associated with any calibration based on the NSE (or MSE) criterion. While we propose and test an alternative criterion that can help to reduce model calibration problems, the primary purpose of this study is not to present an improved measure of model performance. Instead, we seek to show that there are systematic problems inherent with any optimization based on formulations related to the MSE. The analysis and results have implications to the manner in which we calibrate and evaluate environmental models; we discuss these and suggest possible ways forward that may move us towards an improved and diagnostically meaningful approach to model performance evaluation and identification.

Gupta, Hoshin V.↗

Evolution of a Geological Model for Co-Producing Electricity at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada: Preprint

Oil fields characterized by significant proportions of hot water in the reservoir offer a unique opportunity for geothermal energy co-production and utilization. Development of an accurate geological model is essential in understanding the subsurface. However, this is a challenge at the preliminary stages of resource assessment when data on the subsurface parameters and subterranean fault network is scarce. Our focus in this paper is to explore a methodology for developing an accurate conceptual geological model of the complexly faulted reservoir at the Blackburn Field, Nevada, to create a numerical simulation that will eventually be used to assess the potential of co-producing electricity. There are four steps to the evolution of this model: (1) collection of public data and research on the geological setting of the system; (2) digitization of seismic time-interpretation and cross-sections to create the most representative model of the subsurface; and (3) creation of a natural-state numerical model to simulate the thermal gradient through the subsurface. Utilizing publicly available data of the geological system and Leapfrog conceptual modeling software, we refined a preliminary model to be more representative of the subsurface geology of an active geothermal exploration stage project. The conceptual geological model developed has been imported into VOLSUNG reservoir modeling software to create a natural-state model, further characterizing the Blackburn Field reservoir's thermal gradient. In the future, new seismic data will be utilized to further evolve the conceptual geological model for numerical simulations.

Basin and Range province↗

The Transition from Complex Crater to Peak-Ring Basin on the Moon: New Observations from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) Instrument

Impact craters on planetary bodies transition with increasing size from simple, to complex, to peak-ring basins and finally to multi-ring basins. Important to understanding the relationship between complex craters with central peaks and multi-ring basins is the analysis of protobasins (exhibiting a rim crest and interior ring plus a central peak) and peak-ring basins (exhibiting a rim crest and an interior ring). New data have permitted improved portrayal and classification of these transitional features on the Moon. We used new 128 pixel/degree gridded topographic data from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) instrument onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, combined with image mosaics, to conduct a survey of craters >50 km in diameter on the Moon and to update the existing catalogs of lunar peak-ring basins and protobasins. Our updated catalog includes 17 peak-ring basins (rim-crest diameters range from 207 km to 582 km, geometric mean = 343 km) and 3 protobasins (137-170 km, geometric mean = 157 km). Several basins inferred to be multi-ring basins in prior studies (Apollo, Moscoviense, Grimaldi, Freundlich-Sharonov, Coulomb-Sarton, and Korolev) are now classified as peak-ring basins due to their similarities with lunar peak-ring basin morphologies and absence of definitive topographic ring structures greater than two in number. We also include in our catalog 23 craters exhibiting small ring-like clusters of peaks (50-205 km, geometric mean = 81 km); one (Humboldt) exhibits a rim-crest diameter and an interior morphology that may be uniquely transitional to the process of forming peak rings. Comparisons of the predictions of models for the formation of peak-ring basins with the characteristics of the new basin catalog for the Moon suggest that formation and modification of an interior melt cavity and nonlinear scaling of impact melt volume with crater diameter provide important controls on the development of peak rings. In particular, a power-law model of growth of an interior melt cavity with increasing crater diameter is consistent with power-law fits to the peak-ring basin data for the Moon and Mercury. We suggest that the relationship between the depth of melting and depth of the transient cavity offers a plausible control on the onset diameter and subsequent development of peak-ring basins and also multi-ring basins, which is consistent with both planetary gravitational acceleration and mean impact velocity being important in determining the onset of basin morphological forms on the terrestrial planets.

Baker, David M. H.↗

Application and Evaluation of a Snowmelt Runoff Model in the Tamor River Basin, Eastern Himalaya Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Data Assimilation Approach

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree-day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash-Sutcliffe metric approx. 0.84, annual volume bias <3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002-2006 period is estimated to be 29.7+/-2.9% (which includes 4.2+/-0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3+/-2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000-5500m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9+/-3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9+/-1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree-day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds.

runoff↗

Building a Framework to Understand Transition Metals' Behavior in Euxinic Conditions (Final Technical Report)

This project focuses first and foremost on metal sulfide geochemistry and mineralogy as controlled by a complex matrix of environmental factors. The principal investigator’s group aim to illuminate the metal-sulfide reaction mechanisms, rates, and pathways through systematic experimentation and data collection and analyzing the relationships between the characteristics of the produced metal sulfide solid-phase/aqueous complexes and the environmental factors. This understanding is essential for obtaining a full picture of the complex cycling patterns of single or multi metal species in sulfidic environments ranging from deep-see basins, hydrothermal vents, inland seas, terrestrial water bodies, to engineered remediation systems. The specific goal of this past project was to illuminate the reaction mechanisms and kinetics of metal anions and sulfide in mixed metal cation-metal anion-sulfide systems under various aqueous conditions (which resembled a range of naturally occurring euxinic settings). For the period of this contract, we investigated the molybdenum-iron-sulfide system, with an emphasis on the conditions that caused solid phase formation. We focused on quantifying the mobility/sequestration of molybdenum under each experimental condition and identified the changes of valence states for each involved element (i.e., Mo, Fe, and S) in the precipitate. We also proposed pathways for the electron transfer that occurred in aqueous chemistry. The major analytical tools used for this study include UV-visible light spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and synchrotron-based X-ray absorption spectroscopy (access gained through facility proposals to the Canadian Light Source). The biggest finding of this project was that besides pH, the iron-sulfur chemistry has a dominant control of the thiolation kinetics and subsequent reduction of Mo(VI), which are likely prerequisites of molybdenum sequestration in anoxic conditions. The results have been written up as manuscript by the end of this project (see Phillips et al.). The experimental results of this project may be critical for advancing our understanding of (1) basic chemistry involving transition metals and reduced sulfur species, (2) the validity of certain geochemical proxies, and (3) the stability and evolution of euxinic geochemical environments. It is noted that the basic results obtained through this project also have implications for Mo-S cluster-based catalyst development in inorganic chemistry and materials sciences.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The lunar farside - The nature of highlands east of Mare Smythii

A study of lunar orbital data to determine the origin and nature of geochemical variation in a portion of the farside highlands east of the Smythii basin is presented. Averages and ranges of concentrations for the elements Al, Mg, Fe, Ti, and Th are calculated and correlated for photogeologically defined units associated with some specific features and with the region as a whole. The region east of Smythii contains regolith that is far removed from, and therefore largely uncontaminated by, nearside basin material. By conducting a geochemical characterization of this area, the degree of heterogeneity in 'uncontaminated' highlands can be determined, and by implication the extent to which volcano-tectonic activity unrelated to the nearside basins has occurred on the moon.

Clark, Pamela E.↗

Comparison of Martian and lunar multi-ringed circular basins

Many similarities between Martian and lunar multi-ringed basins are outlined. There is a similar relation between basin size and number of rings; the second ring seems to appear in the crater-basin continuum in roughly the same diameter range. The similarities are tentatively considered great enough to indicate that Martian and lunar basins were formed by the same process. Morphological and statistical studies of lunar basins have strongly indicated this process to be impact.

Wilhelms, D. E.↗

Future Spatially Explicit Patterns of Land Transitions in the United States With Multiple Stressors

Climate change, income and population growth, and changing diets are major drivers of the global food system with implications for land use change. Land use in the U.S. will be affected directly by local and regional forces and indirectly through international trade. In order to investigate the effects of several potential forces on land use changes in the U.S., we advanced capabilities in representing the interactions between natural and human systems by linking a multisectoral and multiregional socio-economic model of the world economy to a model that downscales land use to a 0.5°grid scale. This enables us to translate regional projections of future land use into higher-resolution representations of time-evolving land cover (effectively spatially explicit land use transitions). We applied the framework over the U.S., with a particular interest in the Mississippi River Basin and its four sub-basins, to consider how a range of global drivers affect land use and cover in the target regions. Our results show that under scenarios of high pressure on the world food system a comparative advantage in livestock production amplifies the recent trend toward less cropland and more pastures in the U.S. Under low pressures on the world food system agricultural land is used less intensively. However, there can be key differences among the various land-use transitions at the sub- basin scale. Overall, these results highlighted the need for high resolution details to explicitly understand the implications of land use change on environmental impacts such as carbon storage, soil erosion, chemical use, hydrology, and water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Volumetric analysis of complex lunar craters - Implications for basin ring formation

The crater to basin transition in complex lunar craters is characterized by combining morphological and volumetric analyses of their central peaks with subsurface data from terrestrial complex impact structures which suggest that the amount of uplifted material, as judged from its depth of origin, continues to increase with increasing rim diameter. This latter phenomenon implies that a redistribution of uplifted material away from a centralized peak may occur in the larger craters. The morphological and volumetric changes described occur over a rim diameter range of 51-80 km, which is considerably lower than the previously proposed range for the crater to basin transition of 140-175 km. Evidence is given in support of a crater to basin transition which begins at 51-80 km, and is characterized by a relative reduction in central peak volume and a development of rings of floor roughening which may be precursors of peak ring development.

Hale, W. S.↗

Lunar Latitude and Terrain Radiator Sensitivity Study

The thermal environment on the moon is highly complex and diverse. The lunar surface near the equator develops extreme hot average temperatures during the lunar day due to solar flux vectors that are nearly orthogonal to the surface. The lunar poles have a cold and uniquely complex thermal environment with low solar elevation angles and permanently shadowed regions located just kilometers from some of the most highly illuminated regions of the moon. Likewise, the topography can range from very flat crater basins to dramatically tall features such as mountains and crater rims. Consequently, when sizing the radiators of a lunar surface vehicle, the specific thermal environment found in the targeted landing or deployment zone must be well understood to build robust appropriately scaled thermal control systems. Here described are parametric studies that characterize the sensitivity of lunar radiator performance to lunar terrain and latitude. Heat rejection is calculated for different radiator tilt angles in a variety of terrain environments. Radiator performance as a function of underside thermal condition is also characterized at lunar latitudes ranging from equatorial to polar. Impacts of latitude and terrain on radiator performance are quantified, and regions are identified where the thermal environment is more or less favorable for specific radiator designs.

Lunar Vehicle Radiator↗

Lunar Latitude and Terrain Radiator Sensitivity Study

The thermal environment on the moon is highly complex and diverse. The lunar surface near the equator develops extreme hot average temperatures during the lunar day due to solar flux vectors that are nearly orthogonal to the surface. The lunar poles have a cold and uniquely complex thermal environment with low solar elevation angles and permanently shadowed regions located just kilometers from some of the most highly illuminated regions of the moon. Likewise, the topography can range from very flat crater basins to dramatically tall features such as mountains and crater rims. Consequently, when sizing the radiators of a lunar surface vehicle, the specific thermal environment found in the targeted landing or deployment zone must be well understood to build robust, appropriately scaled thermal control systems. Here described are parametric studies that characterize the sensitivity of lunar radiator performance to lunar terrain and latitude. Heat rejection is calculated for different radiator tilt angles in a variety of terrain environments. Radiator performance as a function of underside thermal condition is also characterized at lunar latitudes ranging from equatorial to polar. Impacts of latitude and terrain on radiator performance are quantified, and regions are identified where the thermal environment is more or less favorable for specific radiator designs.

Lunar Vehicle Radiator↗

Lunar Latitude and Terrain Radiator Sensitivity Study

The thermal environment on the moon is highly complex and diverse. The lunar surface near the equator develops extreme hot average temperatures during the lunar day due to solar flux vectors that are nearly orthogonal to the surface. The lunar poles have a cold and uniquely complex thermal environment with low solar elevation angles and permanently shadowed regions located just kilometers from some of the most highly illuminated regions of the moon. Likewise, the topography can range from very flat crater basins to dramatically tall features such as mountains and crater rims. Consequently, when sizing the radiators of a lunar surface vehicle, the specific thermal environment found in the targeted landing or deployment zone must be well understood to build robust, appropriately scaled thermal control systems. Here described are parametric studies that characterize the sensitivity of lunar radiator performance to lunar terrain and latitude. Heat rejection is calculated for different radiator tilt angles in a variety of terrain environments. Radiator performance as a function of underside thermal condition is also characterized at lunar latitudes ranging from equatorial to polar. Impacts of latitude and terrain on radiator performance are quantified, and regions are identified where the thermal environment is more or less favorable for specific radiator designs.

Lunar Thermal Analysis↗

Lunar Latitude and Terrain Radiator Sensitivity Study

The thermal environment on the moon is highly complex and diverse. The lunar surface near the equator develops extreme hot average temperatures during the lunar day due to solar flux vectors that are nearly orthogonal to the surface. The lunar poles have a cold and uniquely complex thermal environment with low solar elevation angles and permanently shadowed regions located just kilometers from some of the most highly illuminated regions of the moon. Likewise, the topography can range from very flat crater basins to dramatically tall features such as mountains and crater rims. Consequently, when sizing the radiators of a lunar surface vehicle, the specific thermal environment found in the targeted landing or deployment zone must be well understood to build robust appropriately scaled thermal control systems. Here described are parametric studies that characterize the sensitivity of lunar radiator performance to lunar terrain and latitude. Heat rejection is calculated for different radiator tilt angles in a variety of terrain environments. Radiator performance as a function of underside thermal condition is also characterized at lunar latitudes ranging from equatorial to polar. Impacts of latitude and terrain on radiator performance are quantified, and regions are identified where the thermal environment is more or less favorable for specific radiator designs.

Lunar Vehicle Radiator↗

Effects of structure and volcanic stratigraphy on groundwater and surface water flow: Hat Creek basin, California, USA

Abstract Hydrogeologic systems in the southern Cascade Range in California (USA) develop in volcanic rocks where morphology, stratigraphy, extensional structures, and attendant basin geometry play a central role in groundwater flow paths, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and spring discharge locations. High-volume springs (greater than 3 m 3 /s) flow from basin-filling (<800 ka) volcanic rocks in the Hat Creek and Fall River tributaries and contribute approximately half of the average annual flow of the Pit River, the largest tributary to Shasta Lake. A hydrogeologic conceptual framework is constructed for the Hat Creek basin combining new geologic mapping, water-well lithologic logs, a database of active faults, LiDAR mapping of faults and volcanic landforms, streamflow measurements and airborne thermal infrared remote sensing of stream temperature. These data are used to integrate the geologic structure and the volcanic and volcaniclastic stratigraphy to create a three-dimensional interpretation of the hydrogeology in the basin. Two large streamflow gains from focused groundwater discharge near Big Spring and north of Sugarloaf Peak result from geologic barriers that restrict lateral groundwater flow and force water into Hat Creek. The inferred groundwater-flow barriers divide the aquifer system into at least three leaky compartments. The two downstream compartments lose streamflow in the upstream reaches (immediately downstream of the groundwater-flow barriers) and gain in downstream reaches with the greatest inflows immediately upstream of the barriers.

Geology↗