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At least 163 records · Page 9

Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA): Assessment of the reaction control system, volume 1

The results of the Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA) of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Critical Items List (CIL) are presented. The IOA effort first completed an analysis of the aft and forward Reaction Control System (RCS) hardware, and Electrical Power Distribution and Control (EPD and C), generating draft failure modes and potential critical items. To preserve independence, this analysis was accomplished without reliance upon the results contained within the NASA FMEA/CIL documentation. The IOA results were then compared to the proposed Post 51-L NASA FMEA/CIL baseline. This report documents the results of that comparison for the Orbiter RCS hardware and EPD and C systems. The IOA product for the RCS analysis consisted of 208 hardware and 2064 EPD and C failure mode worksheets that resulted in 141 hardware and 449 EPD and C potential critical items (PCIs) being identified. A comparison was made of the IOA product to the NASA FMEA/CIL baseline. After comparison and discussions with the NASA subsystem manager, 96 hardware issues, 83 of which concern CIL items or PCIs, and 280 EPD and C issues, 158 of which concern CIL items or PCIs, and 280 EPD and C issues, 158 of which concern CIL items or PCIs, remain unresolved. Volume 1 contains the subsystem description, assessment results, and some of the IOA worksheets.

Prust, Chet D.↗

Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of each technique, results show that there exists little relative difference in the reliability of these capture techniques although uncertainty for the aerocapture estimates remains high given the lack of in-space demonstration.

Percy, Thomas K.↗

Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

Saile, Lynn↗

Assessment of Uncertainty-Based Screening Volumes for NASA Robotic LEO and GEO Conjunction Risk Assessment

Conjunction Assessment operations require screening assets against the space object catalog by placing a pre-determined spatial volume around each asset and predicting when another object will violate that volume. The selection of the screening volume used for each spacecraft is a trade-off between observing all conjunction events that may pose a potential risk to the primary spacecraft and the ability to analyze those predicted events. If the screening volumes are larger, then more conjunctions can be observed and therefore the probability of a missed detection of a high risk conjunction event is small; however, the amount of data which needs to be analyzed increases. This paper characterizes the sensitivity of screening volume size to capturing typical orbit uncertainties and the expected number of conjunction events observed. These sensitivities are quantified in the form of a trade space that allows for selection of appropriate screen-ing volumes to fit the desired concept of operations, system limitations, and tolerable analyst workloads. This analysis will specifically highlight the screening volume determination and selection process for use in the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis process but will also provide a general framework for other Owner / Operators faced with similar decisions.

Narvet, Steven W.↗

Environmental Justice Needs-Assessment For Health & Air Quality: Assessing the Needs and Capacity of Organizations Working Towards Health and Environmental Justice Related to Health and Air Quality

Health and air quality are concerns in environmental justice (EJ) work, as air contaminants and their adverse health effects inequitably impact communities that are often underrepresented in research and litigation. Previously, the NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with organizations that focus on a variety of health and air quality concerns and is now committed to partnering directly with EJ organizations to address inequities in health and air quality through the application of Earth observations. To support the establishment of future partnerships, DEVELOP is working to identify potential partners for further EJ research in the U.S. regarding health and air quality. This project conducted a needs assessment with EJ organizations to quantify their EJ involvement, geospatial capacity, and interest in collaborating with DEVELOP. A broad literature review identified multiple factors influencing health and air quality for potential DEVELOP projects: agriculture, heat, wildfires, industry and transportation infrastructure, and miscellaneous factors (e.g., burning, urban heat island effect, smoke plumes, truck exhaust, and noise). The needs assessment showed that 22% of the organizations interviewed were primarily concerned with transportation infrastructure, 21% with industry, 19% with heat, 10% with miscellaneous factors (e.g., resource mining, COVID-19), 8% with wildfires, 7% with agriculture, and 6% with resource mining. This will help inform the DEVELOP Program's pursuit of EJ projects relating to health and air quality. The team also created a directory for communities impacted by air pollutants to connect with geospatial resources and NASA Applied Sciences personnel for future EJ health and air quality work.

Elizabeth Duran↗

Assessment of Model Outcomes Between the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT)

The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a computational model that provides human health and medical risk predictions for crewed spaceflight missions. MEDPRAT utilizes discrete event modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation to predict critical mission outcomes (total medical events, crew health index, quality time lost, loss of crew life, removal to definitive care), condition occurrences, and resource consumption. Input parameters for MEDPRAT include crew attributes (e.g., sex), types of mission activities (e.g., whether and where crew members perform an extravehicular activity (EVA)), available resources, treatment information, and probability distributions for medical conditions. As an evolution of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), MEDPRAT provides enhanced capabilities and higher fidelity, and incorporates more appropriate assumptions for long-duration spaceflight. IMM is the currently accepted standard for quantifying spaceflight mission medical risk in NASA operations that uses a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach. MEDPRAT builds on the same logical foundation as IMM but implements the model architecture through highly optimized Monte Carlo sampling methods. An analysis is performed comparing the outputs from IMM with those from MEDPRAT V1.0 and V2.0 for the same reference missions in order to quantify similarities and differences in the model outcomes. The juxtaposition between IMM and MEDPRAT V1.0 and 2.0 shown in this report demonstrates that these two models generate very similar results; where differences in outcomes are shown, these are in accordance with the underlying assumptions and differences in the model architectures. This validation effort further establishes the credibility and reliability of the MEDPRAT software.

Matthew T Prelich↗

Assessing potential induced radioactivity in materials processed with X-ray energy above 5 MeV: Assessment protocols and practical experience

In accordance with ISO11137-1 section 5.1.2, ‘the potential for induced radioactivity in product shall be assessed’. This article describes how compliance to this requirement may be achieved using qualified test methods. Materials of consideration are conceptually discussed. Results of testing conducted on products processed with a 7.5 MeV X-ray irradiation process are provided. As X-ray becomes more widely used in healthcare sterilization, having standard assessment protocols for activation coupled with a shared database of material test results will benefit all healthcare product manufacturers seeking to avail of this innovative technology.

Kroc, Thomas K.↗

Techno-economic assessment and life cycle assessment of three potential pathways for biomass liquefaction

Biomass liquefaction can enhance corn-stover slurry transportation by reducing yield stress and overall viscosity, easing biomass handling, especially for slurries at high solids loading (≥30 % (w/v). Implementing a liquefaction process at the front-end of the biorefinery could reduce downtime caused by equipment fouling. Furthermore, liquefaction reduces process complexity by transforming high fiber mass into a pumpable slurry. Three scenarios for liquefaction of corn stover pellets: enzyme process, enzyme mimetic process, and a combined process of enzyme and enzyme mimetic were assessed. The ideal process will have the best performance-to-cost ratio, with minimal impact on the environment. Techno-economic and life-cycle analyses were used to understand the economic and environmental effects of the three liquefaction scenarios and to determine if one or more can achieve cost parity. Here, results show that the enzyme process had the best performance in terms of cost and emissions (gCO 2 -equivalent/kg slurry)compared to the other scenarios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A comparison of methods for assessing power output in non-uniform onshore wind farms

Wind resource assessments are used to estimate a wind farm's power production during the planning process. It is important that these estimates are accurate, as they can impact financing agreements, transmission planning, and environmental targets. Here, we analyze the challenges in wind power estimation for onshore farms. Turbine wake effects are a strong determinant of farm power production. With given input wind conditions, wake losses typically cause downstream turbines to produce significantly less power than upstream turbines. These losses have been modeled extensively and are well understood under certain conditions. Most notably, validation of different model types has favored offshore farms. Models that capture the dynamics of offshore wind conditions do not necessarily perform equally as well for onshore wind farms. We analyze the capabilities of several different methods for estimating wind farm power production in 2 onshore farms with non-uniform layouts. We compare the Jensen model to a number of statistical models, to meteorological downscaling techniques, and to using no model at all. In conclusion, we show that the complexities of some onshore farms result in wind conditions that are not accurately modeled by the Jensen wake decay techniques and that statistical methods have some strong advantages in practice.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Machine Learning Reduced Order Model for Cost and Emission Assessment of a Pyrolysis System

Biomass pyrolysis is a promising approach for producing economic and environmentally-friendly fuels and bioproducts. Biomass pyrolysis experiments show that feedstock properties have a significant impact on product yields and composition. Scientists are developing detailed chemical reaction mechanisms to capture the relationships between biomass composition and pyrolysis yields. These mechanisms can be computationally intensive. In this study, we investigate the use of a machine learning reduced order model (ROM) for assessing the costs and emissions of a pyrolysis biorefinery. Here, we developed a Kriging-based ROM to predict pyrolysis yields of 314 feedstock samples based on the results of a detailed chemical kinetic pyrolysis mechanism. The ROM is integrated into a chemical process model for calculating mass and energy yields in a commercial-scale (2000 tonne/day) biorefinery. The ROM estimated biofuel yields of 65 to 130 gallons per ton of dry biomass. This results in biofuel minimum fuel-selling prices of $2.62 to $5.43 per gallon and emissions of -13.62 to 145 kg of CO 2 per MJ. The ROM achieved an average mean square error of 1.8e-20 and a mean absolute error of 0.53%. These results suggest that ROMs can facilitate rapid feedstock screening for biorefinery systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An economic assessment of behind-the-meter photovoltaics paired with batteries on the Hawaiian Islands.

Due to natural variability and uncertainty, the ever-increasing penetration of solar generation in Hawaii presents challenges to power grid operators to maintain reliable system operation. Demand response (DR) has the potential to be a cost-effective tool for Hawaii to reach its aggressive renewable energy goals while maintaining the reliability of power grids. The Hawaii Public Utilities Commission has approved the Hawaiian Electric Company's revised portfolio of DR programs. The companies have released a grid services purchase agreement and subscribed an initial tranche of load into their DR programs. This paper presents innovative analytical methods and comprehensive economic assessment for distributed photovoltaics (PV) paired with battery energy storage systems (BESSs) for two new DR programs, including fast frequency response and capacity grid service. Optimal dispatch and sizing methods are proposed for the paired system considering different tariff schedules and PV compensation programs across five islands. It was found that while the best resource configuration and potential economic benefits vary with tariff structure, a BESS paired with PV can be optimally dispatched to generate multiple value streams simultaneously. Compensation from DR programs is an important value stream to help increase the cost-effectiveness of the integrated system.

Battery energy storage system↗