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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Short–Term Forecasting of Wind Gusts at Airports Across CONUS Using Machine Learning

Short–term forecasting of wind gusts, particularly those of higher intensity, is of great societal importance but is challenging due to the presence of multiple gust generation mechanisms. Wind gust observations from eight high–passenger–volume airports across the continental United States (CONUS) are summarized and used to develop predictive models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. These short–term (same hour) forecast models are built using multiple logistic and linear regression, as well as artificial neural networks (ANNs) of varying complexity. A suite of 19 upper–air predictors drawn from the ERA5 reanalysis and an autoregressive (AR) term are used. Stepwise procedures instruct predictor selection, and resampling is used to quantify model stability. All models are developed separately for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. Results show that ANNs of 3–5 hidden layers (HLs) generally exhibit higher hit rates than logistic regression models and also improve skill with respect to wind gust magnitudes. However, deeper networks with more HLs increase false alarm rates in occurrence models and mean absolute error in magnitude models due to model overfitting. For model skill, inclusion of the AR term is critical while the majority of the remaining skill derives from wind speeds and lapse rates. A predictive ceiling is also clearly demonstrated, particularly for the strong and damaging gust magnitudes, which appears to be partially due to ERA5 predictor characteristics and the presence of mixed wind climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine-learning based prediction of injection rate and solenoid voltage characteristics in GDI injectors

We report that current state-of-the-art gasoline direct-injection (GDI) engines use multiple injections as one of the key technologies to improve exhaust emissions and fuel efficiency. For this technology to be successful, secured adequate control of fuel quantity for each injection is mandatory. However, nonlinearity and variations in the injection quantity can deteriorate the accuracy of fuel control, especially with small fuel injections. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the complex injection behavior and to develop a predictive model to be utilized in the development process. This study presents a methodology for rate of injection (ROI) and solenoid voltage modeling using artificial neural networks (ANNs) constructed from a set of Zeuch-style hydraulic experimental measurements conducted over a wide range of conditions. A quantitative comparison between the ANN model and the experimental data shows that the model is capable of predicting not only general features of the ROI trend, but also transient and non-linear behaviors at particular conditions. In addition, the end of injection (EOI) could be detected precisely with a virtually generated solenoid voltage signal and the signal processing method, which applies to an actual engine control unit. A correlation between the detected EOI timings calculated from the modeled signal and the measurement results showed a high coefficient of determination.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven estimation of energy consumption for electric bus under real-world driving conditions

Reliable and accurate estimation of an electric bus’s instantaneous energy consumption is critical in evaluating energy impacts of planning and control of electric bus operations. In this study, we developed machine learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to estimate 1 Hz energy consumption of electric buses based on continuous monitoring data of electric buses in Chattanooga, Tennessee, in 2019 and 2020. We propose a data-partitioning algorithm to separate energy charging and discharging modes before applying data-driven estimation models. Here, a K-fold cross-validation-based model selection process was conducted to identify the optimal model structure and input variables in terms of prediction accuracy. The estimation results show the predicted mean absolute percentage error rates of LSTM and ANN models were 3% and 5%, respectively. We compared the proposed models with existing models in the literature based on the same testing data to demonstrate the predictability of our models.

Artificial neural network↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate models to optimize plasma-assisted atomic layer deposition in high aspect ratio features

In this work, we explore surrogate models to optimize plasma enhanced atomic layer deposition (PEALD) in high aspect ratio features. In plasma-based processes such as PEALD and atomic layer etching (ALE), surface recombination can dominate the reactivity of plasma species with the surface, which can lead to unfeasibly long exposure times to achieve full conformality inside nanostructures like high aspect ratio vias. Using a synthetic dataset based on simulations of PEALD, we train artificial neural networks to predict saturation times based on cross section thickness data obtained for partially coated conditions. The results obtained show that just two experiments in undersaturated conditions contain enough information to predict saturation times within 10% of the ground truth. A surrogate model trained to determine whether surface recombination dominates the plasma–surface interactions in a PEALD process achieves 99% accuracy. This demonstrates that machine learning can provide a new pathway to accelerate the optimization of PEALD processes in areas such as microelectronics. Our approach can be easily extended to ALE and more complex structures.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient sampling of free energy landscapes with functions in Sobolev spaces

Molecular simulations of biological and physical phenomena generally involve sampling complicated, rough energy landscapes characterized by multiple local minima. In this work, we introduce a new family of methods for advanced sampling that draw inspiration from functional representations used in machine learning and approximation theory. As shown here, such representations are particularly well suited for learning free energies using artificial neural networks. As a system evolves through phase space, the proposed methods gradually build a model for the free energy as a function of one or more collective variables, from both the frequency of visits to distinct states and generalized force estimates corresponding to such states. Implementation of the methods is relatively simple and, more importantly, for the representative examples considered in this work, they provide computational efficiency gains of up to several orders of magnitude over other widely used simulation techniques.

Approximation theory↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning based simultaneous control of air handling unit discharge air and condenser water temperatures set-point for minimized cooling energy in an office building

In this study, an artificial intelligence based real-time prediction and control model to optimize condenser water temperature and discharge air temperature (DAT) set-points in water-cooled air handling unit (AHU) system has been developed. EnergyPlus-MATLAB co-simulation has been conducted to analyze the developed model's effectiveness. Here, to develop artificial neural networks (ANN) model, embedded neural network objects in MATLAB was utilized. The developed model could decide an optimal temperature set-points based on outdoor air wet-bulb temperature to reflect the Korean climate context. As a result, the developed ANN prediction model showed the predictive performance of Cv(RMSE) of approximately 21%. Compared to the conventional fixed temperature algorithm, which fixes AHU DAT at 14°C and condenser water temperature at 32°C, the ANN based optimized control showed a 22% total cooling energy reduction. These results show that significant energy savings can be achieved by simultaneously controlling condenser water temperature and AHU DAT set-points considering Korean climatic characteristics using AI technologies such as ANN models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-Learning-Driven, Site-Specific Weather Forecasting for Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings: Preprint

Emerging grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) have great potential to provide much-needed demand flexibility to electric grids while fulfilling their own control targets by co-optimizing smart appliances, solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and energy storage at buildings. To enable the optimal operation of GEBs, site-specific weather information—such as temperature, solar irradiance, relative humidity, and wind speed—is crucial; however, this information is generally unavailable or expensive to obtain. This paper develops advanced machine learning methods to provide precise weather forecasts for individual building sites using readily available weather station data. Support vector regression and artificial neural networks have been employed to learn the spatiotemporal correlations between the weather conditions at nearby weather stations and the individual building site. The proposed site-specific weather forecasting methods have been validated using 1-year actual weather measurement data collected in the Denver metro area. Results show that the developed machine-learning-driven methods can accurately forecast the temperature at the target building site 1 hour ahead with mean absolute error less than 0.72°C and a 48% improvement over the persistence method. Site-specific weather forecasts will improve the understanding of the microclimate effect and its impact on building energy consumption. This information will drive efficiency upgrades and adjustments of building control strategies to improve energy savings and increase flexibility in building loads.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detecting technological maturity from bibliometric patterns

We report the capability to identify emergent technologies based upon easily accessed open-source indicators, such as publications, is important for decision-makers in industry and government. The scientific contribution of this work is the proposition of a machine learning approach to the detection of the maturity of emerging technologies based on publication counts. Time-series of publication counts have universal features that distinguish emerging and growing technologies. We train an artificial neural network classifier, a supervised machine learning algorithm, upon these features to predict the maturity (emergent vs. growth) of an arbitrary technology. With a training set comprised of 22 technologies we obtain a classification accuracy ranging from 58.3% to 100% with an average accuracy of 84.6% for six test technologies. To enhance classifier performance, we augmented the training corpus with synthetic time-series technology life cycle curves, formed by calculating weighted averages of curves in the original training set. Training the classifier on the synthetic data set resulted in improved accuracy, ranging from 83.3% to 100% with an average accuracy of 90.4% for the test technologies. The performance of our classifier exceeds that of competing machine learning approaches in the literature, which report an average classification accuracy of only 85.7% at maximum. Moreover, in contrast to current methods our approach does not require subject matter expertise to generate training labels, and it can be automated and scaled.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Can artificial intelligence and data-driven machine learning models match or even replace process-driven hydrologic models for streamflow simulation?: A case study of four watersheds with different hydro-climatic regions across the CONUS

With recent developments in computational techniques, Data-driven Machine Learning Models (DMLs) have shown great potential in simulating streamflow and capturing the rainfall-runoff relationship in given watersheds, which are traditionally fulfilled by Process-based Hydrologic Models (PHMs). There are debates on whether the DMLs can outperform and possibly replace the classical PHMs for streamflow simulation and river forecasting, but no clear conclusions have been made. This study aims to investigate whether the newer DMLs have any potential in further improving the simulation accuracy of classical PHMs, and vice versa. To do this, we compared a few popular PHMs and DMLs over four watersheds across the Continental US (CONUS) that are associated with different input, climate, and regional conditions. A total of five hydrologic models were chosen, including (1) two classical lumped models, i.e., the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) and Xinanjiang (XAJ); (2) one modern distributed model, termed Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST); (3) and two DMLs including an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and a deep learning model, termed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). Our results demonstrated that the DMLs still significantly biased when using the baseline input scenario with the PHMs. However, the DMLs fed with delayed input scenarios had great potential and can reach high simulation accuracy. The DMLs, especially the ANN, outperformed other employed models under the rainfall-runoff relationship in which rainfall dominantly drives. Furthermore, the DMLs also showed better performance in the high-flow regime, while the PHMs had a better performance for the low-flow regime, implying both PHMs and DMLs have their own merits and are worthy of joint development. In general, our study indicated a great potential of using DMLs to simulate streamflow, but further studies are still needed to verify the transferability and scalability of DMLs in large-scale experiments, such as the Distributed Model Intercomparison Projects 1&2 conducted by National Weather Services but to compare modern DMLs and PHMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A data-driven model for thermodynamic properties of a steam generator under cycling operation

The varying electricity demand from coal power plants due to the intermittent nature of renewable sources leads to load-follow and on/off operations referred to as cycling. Cycling causes transients of properties such as pressure and temperature within various components of the steam generation system.These transients cause increased damage because of fatigue and creep-fatigue interactions shortening the life of components. An algorithm is developed to identify cycling operations from the gross power data. The data-driven model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) is developed using 10 years data from Coal Creek Station power plant located in North Dakota, USA to estimate properties of the steam generator components during cycling operations. Furthermore, the uniqueness of this model is the ability to predict component properties for the cycling as well as base-load operations and is reported for the first time. The ANN model estimates the component properties, for a given gross power profile and initial conditions, as they vary during cycling operations. As a representative example, the ANN estimates are presented for the superheater outlet pressure, reheater inlet temperature, and flue gas temperature at the air heater inlet. The changes in these variables as a function of the gross power over the time duration are compared with measurements to assess the predictive capability of the model. Mean square errors of 4.49E-04 for superheater outlet pressure, 1.62E-03 for reheater inlet temperature, and 4.14E-04 for flue gas temperature at the air heater inlet were observed.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Tradeoffs in Memory, Accuracy, and Speed for Chemistry Tabulation Techniques

Chemistry tabulation is a common approach in practical simulations of turbulent combustion at engineering scales. Linear interpolants have traditionally been used for accessing precomputed multidimensional tables but suffer from large memory requirements and discontinuous derivatives. Higher-degree interpolants address some of these restrictions but are similarly limited to relatively low-dimensional tabulation. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be used to overcome these limitations but cannot guarantee the same accuracy as interpolants and introduce challenges in reproducibility and reliable training. These challenges are enhanced as the physics complexity to be represented within the tabulation increases. Here, we assess the efficiency, accuracy, and memory requirements of Lagrange polynomials, tensor product B-splines, and ANNs as tabulation strategies. We analyze results in the context of nonadiabatic flamelet modeling where higher dimension counts are necessary. While ANNs do not require structuring of data, providing benefits for complex physics representation, interpolation approaches often rely on some structuring of the table. Interpolation using structured table inputs that are not directly related to the variables transported in a simulation can incur additional query costs. This is demonstrated in the present implementation of heat losses. We show that ANNs, despite being difficult to train and reproduce, can be advantageous for high-dimensional, unstructured datasets relevant to nonadiabatic flamelet models. Furthermore we demonstrate that Lagrange polynomials show significant speedup for similar accuracy compared to B-splines.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid interatomic potential for Sn

To design materials for extreme applications, it is important to understand and predict phase transitions and their influence on material properties under high pressures and temperatures. Atomistic modeling can be a useful tool to assess these behaviors. However, this can be difficult due to the lack of fidelity of the interatomic potentials in reproducing this high pressure and temperature extreme behavior. Here, in this work, a hybrid EAM-R—which is the combination of embedded atom method (EAM) and rapid artificial neural network potential—for Tin (Sn) is described which is capable of accurately modeling the complex sequence of phase transitions between different metallic polymorphs as a function of pressure. This hybrid approach ensures that a basic empirical potential like EAM is used as a lower energy bound. By using the final activation function, the neural network contribution to energy must be positive, assuring stability over the whole configuration space. This implementation has the capacity to reproduce density functional theory results at 6 orders of magnitude slower than a pair potential for molecular dynamics simulation, including elastic and plastic characteristics and relative energies of each phase. Using calculations of the Gibbs free energy, it is demonstrated that the potential precisely predicts the experimentally observed phase changes at temperatures and pressures across the whole phase diagram. At 10.2 GPa, the present potential predicts a first-order phase transition between body-centered tetragonal (BCT) β-Sn and another polymorph of BCT-Sn. This structure transforms into body-centered cubic near the experimentally reported value at 33 GPa. Thus, the Sn potential developed in this paper can be used to study complex deformation mechanisms under extreme conditions of high pressure and strain rates unlike existing potentials. Moreover, the framework developed in this paper can be extended for different material systems with complex phase diagrams.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sampling and resolution characteristics in reduced order models of shallow water equations: Intrusive vs nonintrusive

We investigate the sensitivity of reduced order models (ROMs) to training data spatial resolution as well as sampling rate. In particular, we consider proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), coupled with Galerkin projection (POD-GP), as an intrusive reduced order modeling technique. For non-intrusive ROMs, we consider two frameworks. The first is using dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), and the second is based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). For ANN, we utilized a residual deep neural network, and for DMD we have studied two versions of DMD approaches; one with hard thresholding and the other with sorted bases selection. Also, we highlight the differences between mean-subtracting the data (centering) and using the data without mean-subtraction. We tested these ROMs using a system of 2D shallow water equations for four different numerical experiments, adopting combinations of sampling rates and spatial resolutions. For these cases, we found that the DMD basis obtained with hard threshodling is sensitive to sampling rate. The sorted DMD algorithm helps to mitigate this problem and yields more stabilized and converging solution. Furthermore, we demonstrate that both DMD approaches without mean subtraction provide significantly more accurate results than DMD with mean-subtracting the data. On the other hand, POD is relatively insensitive to sampling rate and yields better representation of the flow field. Meanwhile, spatial resolution has little effect on both POD and DMD performances. Here, the numerical results reveal that an ANN on POD subspace (POD-ANN) performs remarkably better than POD-GP and DMD in capturing system dynamics, even with a small number of modes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Biomass Yields of Advanced Switchgrass Cultivars for Bioenergy and Ecosystem Services Using Machine Learning

The production of advanced perennial bioenergy crops within marginal areas of the agricultural landscape is gaining interest due to its potential to sustainably produce feedstocks for biofuels and bioproducts while also improving the sustainability and resilience of commodity crop production. However, predicting the biomass yields of this production system is challenging because marginal areas are often relatively small and spread around agricultural fields and are typically associated with various abiotic conditions that limit crop production. Machine learning (ML) offers a viable solution as a biomass yield prediction tool because it is suited to predicting relationships with complex functional associations. The objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate the accuracy of commonly applied ML algorithms in agricultural applications for predicting the biomass yields of advanced switchgrass cultivars for bioenergy and ecosystem services and (2) determine the most important biomass yield predictors. Datasets on biomass yield, weather, land marginality, soil properties, and agronomic management were generated from three field study sites in two U.S. Midwest states (Illinois and Iowa) over three growing seasons. The ML algorithms evaluated in the study included random forests (RFs), gradient boosting machines (GBMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), K-neighbors regressor (KNR), AdaBoost regressor (ABR), and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the tested algorithms. Results showed that the ensemble methods, RF (R 2 = 0.86, MAE = 0.62 Mg/ha), GBM (R 2 = 0.88, MAE = 0.57 Mg/ha), and GBM (R 2 = 0.78, MAE = 0.66 Mg/ha), were the most accurate in predicting biomass yields of the Independence, Liberty, and Shawnee switchgrass cultivars, respectively. This is in agreement with similar studies that apply ML to multi-feature problems where traditional statistical methods are less applicable and datasets used were considered to be relatively small for ANNs. Consistent with previous studies on switchgrass, the most important predictors of biomass yield included average annual temperature, average growing season temperature, sum of the growing season precipitation, field slope, and elevation. This study helps pave the way for applying ML as a management tool for alternative bioenergy landscapes where understanding agronomic and environmental performance of a multifunctional cropping system seasonally and interannually at the sub-field scale is critical.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Artificial intelligence-driven municipal solid waste sortation and its significance on downstream waste valorization in the United States: Techno-economic and life cycle assessment

Municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is quickly increasing due to population growth, industrialization, and urbanization. Current sorting technologies, e.g., optical sorters have low sortation efficiency and produce contaminated sorted materials unsuitable for downstream valorization. This study evaluates a novel artificial neural network (ANN)-based MSW sortation system through sorting efficiencies, economic performance, and environmental impacts. ANN system can sort up to 8 plastic types and all organic waste (i.e., food, yard, and paper waste) with 99% and 93% recovery efficiency, respectively, compared to optical sortation which could separate only polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastic ultimately producing mixed plastics (except PVC) and organics streams as products. Nonetheless, their sortation costs are similar, $28.7 for ANN-based sortation and $28 for optical sortation per metric ton (Mt) of MSW at processing capacity of 94,860 metric tons (Mt)/yr of MSW in the United States. Additionally, ANN system produced high purity feedstocks for downstream valorization. A biochar pyrolysis plant modeled to process 3.6 and 14 Mt/h of sorted yard waste outperformed biochar production from mixed organic fraction (MOF), achieving 8% lower production cost and 34% lower global warming impact (1.37 kg CO 2 eq. per kg) compared to biochar derived from mixed organic feedstock (2.08 kg CO 2 eq.).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Application to Assess Occurrence and Saturations of Methane Hydrate in Marine Deposits Offshore India

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used to assess methane hydrate occurrence and saturation in marine sediments offshore India. The ANN analysis classifies the gas hydrate occurrence into three types: methane hydrate in pore space, methane hydrate in fractures, or no methane hydrate. Further, predicted saturation characterizes the volume of gas hydrate with respect to the available void volume. Log data collected at six wells, which were drilled during the India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02), provided a combination of well log measurements that were used as input for machine learning (ML) models. Well log measurements included density, porosity, electrical resistivity, natural gamma radiation, and acoustic wave velocity. Combinations of well logs used in the ML models provide good overall balanced accuracy (0.79 to 0.86) for the prediction of the gas hydrate occurrence and good accuracy (0.68 to 0.92) for methane hydrate saturation prediction in the marine accumulations against reference data. The accuracy scores indicate that the ML models can successfully predict reservoir characteristics for marine methane hydrate deposits. In conclusion, the results indicate that the ML models can either augment physics-driven methods for assessing the occurrence and saturation of methane hydrate deposits or serve as an independent predictive tool for those characteristics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultra-Fast Non-Volatile Resistive Switching Devices with Over 512 Distinct and Stable Levels for Memory and Neuromorphic Computing

Low-current multilevel programmability with inherent non-volatility and high stability of resistance states is required for both multi-bit memory storage and deep learning accelerators but is difficult to achieve. Here, in a resistive switching system, this work realizes >512 (>9 bits) distinct non-volatile conductance levels with stable retention for each state with current levels down to the nanoampere range, highly promising for potential integration with small processing nodes with ultra-low power consumption requirements. This is achieved by demonstrating a new thin film design concept that encompasses three key features: an ultra-thin epitaxial oxygen ionic switching layer that provides a tunable energy barrier at the bottom electrode, an overcoat amorphous layer that acts as an ion migration barrier for stable state retention, and a partial conductive filament as a localized electronic transport channel to the epitaxial switching layer. A large dynamic resistance range of up to seven orders of magnitude is achieved with reset-free transitions among intermediate states, and programmability is demonstrated with ultra-fast (20 ns) pulses. Artificial neural network (ANN) simulations, based on the experimental performance and its non-idealities, demonstrate close-to-ideal inference accuracies for various Modified National Institute of Standards and Technology (MNIST) data sets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-based optimization of air-cooled heat sinks

Machine learning-based models using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and greedy search algorithm are used to optimize air-cooled parallel plate-finned heat sinks (PPFHSs) subjected to laminar flow over an extensive range of design parameters. Here, the thermal and hydraulic performances of PPFHSs are represented by heat transfer coefficient (h) and pressure drop (ΔP), respectively. Optimization objectives for PPFHS designs can vary from industry to industry depending on their design priorities. The present study proposes a novel and generalized optimization method that defines practical optimization objectives and provides an accurate optimization process to design effective PPFHSs for a wide range of industrial applications with different design requirements. Three optimization objectives are presented in this study: (i) the largest h PΔ, (ii) the largest h within a specified maximum allowed flow rate, and (iii) the lowest weight that maximizes h for operation within the maximum allowed flow rate. While the shortcoming of the first objective is demonstrated, the other two objectives are found to be suitable for designing effective heat sinks (HSs) across different applications. Results suggest a promising trend from the third objective to develop HSs with ~ 37-68% lower weight, 80-85% reduced ΔP, and negligible penalty in h compared with optimized HSs obtained from the second objective. However, since the third objective leads to HSs with thinner fins, structural analysis should be performed to ensure reliable operation of the HSs.

42 ENGINEERING↗