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DOE OSTI2024

Transportation and System Analysis Collaborations in Support of a Federal Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program under the Office of Nuclear Energy is planning for the future transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from nuclear power plant and waste custodian sites across the United States. To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the IWM program has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various options for managing SNF and HLW. With these tools, integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). System analyses and assessments typically use these modeling and simulation tools to investigate implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters such as acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, start and stop dates of facilities, etc. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation toolkit that is used for a system-level simulation and analysis focused on SNF management in the United States. NGSAM’s primary purpose is to provide a system analyst with capabilities to model the IWMS and gain insights into SNF and HLW management alternatives including the impact of system choices, associated cost estimates, and development of integrated yet flexible approaches. An analyst using NGSAM can define several factors like the number of storage facilities, capacity at each facility, transportation schedules, shipment rates, and other conditions. IWM is also developing the Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START). START is a web-based geospatial tool developed to provide the visualization and initial evaluation of transportation options associated with future SNF and HLW shipment planning and operations. This includes characterizing safety, economic, and environmental conditions at and in proximity to shipment origins as well as along prospective transportation routes. Information from the START tool can be presented/shared as maps, graphics, geospatial files, and tabular form to enable easy data representation and export functionality. The system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams have been working closely for several years before formalizing this collaboration. START provides the SNF transportation routing information for use in NGSAM. System analysts use the NGSAM tool to generate results (schedule, costs, infrastructure acquisitions, shipment rates, etc.). Subject-matter experts and system analysts work together to inform how NGSAM should model the waste management system. Specifically, this paper discusses the collaborations between the system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams and their accomplishments over the past year. Some examples of these efforts include calibrating and adding data to the START output files to meet NGSAM needs, gaining a better understanding of START data used in NGSAM as well as how updates in START data could result in an improved NGSAM analysis. Detailed examples of various tasks that have been performed by the team will be discussed in the full paper. Continued efforts in this direction are expected in the coming years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Methods for a blind analysis of isobar data collected by the STAR collaboration

In 2018, the STAR collaboration collected data from $_{44}^{96}{\mathrm{Ru}}+_{44}^{96}{\mathrm{Ru}}$ and $_{40}^{96}{\mathrm{Zr}}+_{40}^{96}{\mathrm{Zr}}$ at $\sqrt{s_\text {NN}}=200$ GeV to search for the presence of the chiral magnetic effect in collisions of nuclei. The isobar collision species alternated frequently between $_{44}^{96}{\mathrm{Ru}}+_{44}^{96}{\mathrm{Ru}}$ and $_{40}^{96}{\mathrm{Zr}}+_{40}^{96}{\mathrm{Zr}}$ . In order to conduct blind analyses of studies related to the chiral magnetic effect in these isobar data, STAR developed a three-step blind analysis procedure. Analysts are initially provided a “reference sample” of data, comprised of a mix of events from the two species, the order of which respects time-dependent changes in run conditions. After tuning analysis codes and performing time-dependent quality assurance on the reference sample, analysts are provided a species-blind sample suitable for calculating efficiencies and corrections for individual $\approx 30$-min data-taking runs. For this sample, species-specific information is disguised, but individual output files contain data from a single isobar species. Only run-by-run corrections and code alteration subsequent to these corrections are allowed at this stage. Following these modifications, the “frozen” code is passed over the fully un-blind data, completing the blind analysis. As a check of the feasibility of the blind analysis procedure, analysts completed a “mock data challenge,” analyzing data from Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_\text {NN}}=27$ GeV, collected in 2018. The Au + Au data were prepared in the same manner intended for the isobar blind data. Finally, the details of the blind analysis procedure and results from the mock data challenge are presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A software environment for effective reliability management for pulsed power design

The reliable design of magnetically insulated transmission lines (MITLs) for very high current pulsed power machines must be accomplished in the future by utilizing a variety of sophisticated modeling tools. The complexity of the models required is high and the number of sub-models and approximations large. The potential for significant analyst error using a single tool is large, with possible reliability issues associated with the plasma modeling tools themselves or the chosen approach by the analyst to solve a given problem. Here, we report on a software infrastructure design that provides a workable framework for building self-consistent models and constraining feedback to limit analyst error. The framework and associated tools aid the development of physical intuition, the development of increasingly sophisticated models, and the comparison of performance results. The work lays the computational foundation for designing state-of-the-art pulsed-power experiments. The design and useful features of this environment are described. We discuss the utility of the Git source code management system and a GitLab interface for use in project management that extends beyond software development tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Direction of impact for explainable risk assessment modeling

Abstract Several graphical indicators have been recently introduced to help analysts visualize the marginal effects of inputs in complex models. The insights derived from such tools may help decision‐makers and risk analysts in designing interventions. However, we know little about the adequacy and consistency of different indicators. This work investigates popular marginal effect indicators to understand whether they yield indications consistent with the properties of the quantitative model under inspection. Specifically, we examine the notions of monotonicity, Lipschitz, and concavity consistency. Surprisingly, only PD functions satisfy all these notions of consistency. However, when selecting the indicators, in addition to consistency, analysts need to consider the risk of model extrapolation. For situations where such risk is under control, we utilize individual conditional expectations together with PD plots. Two applications, on a NASA space risk assessment model and a susceptible exposed infected recovered (SEIR) model for the COVID‐19 pandemic illustrate the insights obtained from these indicators.

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Open-Source Python Package for CFD Solution Verification

Informed decision-making using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results requires quantifying the errors and uncertainties of a simulation. Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) methods were developed to address this need and have matured. However, these VVUQ analyses are often non-trivial and require CFD analysts and practitioners to have specific skill sets. This has led to the uneven adoption of VVUQ analyses, in part, based on the availability of software tools to aid CFD analysts and practitioners. Solution verification, a procedure to evaluate the accuracy of a simulation by estimating potential errors arising from the computational model and computing the uncertainties without comparing to results from a physical system, is one of the lagging VVUQ analyses as the absence of software has forced CFD analysts and practitioners to develop their own codes or piece together incomplete software from across the internet. This work presents an opensource Python package, CFDverify, to lower the barrier of entry and fill in the technological gap in solution verification. CFDverify also provides a streamlined framework to remove some potential errors in post-processing CFD results. The hope is that CFDverify can improve the quality and quantity of CFD solution verification in scientific and research studies and attract interest in developing a communal tool. This paper describes the design, features, and an example use of CFDverify.

Weinmeister, Justin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160090237↗

DOE OSTI2013

Interactive visual comparison of multimedia data through type-specific views

Analysts who work with collections of multimedia to perform information foraging understand how difficult it is to connect information across diverse sets of mixed media. The wealth of information from blogs, social media, and news sites often can provide actionable intelligence; however, many of the tools used on these sources of content are not capable of multimedia analysis because they only analyze a single media type. As such, analysts are taxed to keep a mental model of the relationships among each of the media types when generating the broader content picture. To address this need, we have developed Canopy, a novel visual analytic tool for analyzing multimedia. Canopy provides insight into the multimedia data relationships by exploiting the linkages found in text, images, and video co-occurring in the same document and across the collection. Canopy connects derived and explicit linkages and relationships through multiple connected visualizations to aid analysts in quickly summarizing, searching, and browsing collected information to explore relationships and align content. In this paper, we will discuss the features and capabilities of the Canopy system and walk through a scenario illustrating how this system might be used in an operational environment. Keywords: Multimedia (Image/Video/Music) Visualization.

Burtner, Edwin R.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Situational Awareness of Network System Roles (SANSR)

In a large enterprise it is difficult for cyber security analysts to know what services and roles every machine on the network is performing (e.g., file server, domain name server, email server). Using network flow data, already collected by most enterprises, we developed a proof-of-concept tool that discovers the roles of a system using both clustering and categorization techniques. The tool's role information would allow cyber analysts to detect consequential changes in the network, initiate incident response plans, and optimize their security posture. The results of this proof-of-concept tool proved to be quite accurate on three real data sets. We will present the algorithms used in the tool, describe the results of preliminary testing, provide visualizations of the results, and discuss areas for future work. Without this kind of situational awareness, cyber analysts cannot quickly diagnose an attack or prioritize remedial actions.

cyber security↗

DOE OSTI2017

Interpreting Black-Box Classifiers Using Instance-Level Visual Explanations

To realize the full potential of machine learning in diverse real- world domains, it is necessary for model predictions to be readily interpretable and actionable for the human in the loop. Analysts, who are the users but not the developers of machine learning models, often do not trust a model because of the lack of transparency in associating predictions with the underlying data space. To address this problem, we propose Rivelo, a visual analytic interface that enables analysts to understand the causes behind predictions of binary classifiers by interactively exploring a set of instance-level explanations. These explanations are model-agnostic, treating a model as a black box, and they help analysts in interactively probing the high-dimensional binary data space for detecting features relevant to predictions. We demonstrate the utility of the interface with a case study analyzing a random forest model on the sentiment of Yelp reviews about doctors.

Tamagnini, Paolo↗

DOE OSTI2019

Situational Awareness of Network System Roles (SANSR)

In a large enterprise it is difficult for cyber security analysts to know what services and roles every machine on the network is performing (e.g. file server, domain name server, email server). Understanding the roles of the systems in the network provides analysts with a situational awareness that will allow them to detect consequential changes in the network, initiate an incident response plan, and optimize their security posture. Using the network flow data, already collected by most enterprises, we developed a tool that enables analysts to automatically detect/classify services and roles of every machine that’s operating on a network (e.g. file server, domain name server, email server) for better situational awareness of potential threats to the network. his tool queries Elasticsearch for network flow data, creates a temporal behavior model of each system, uses unsupervised machine learning to cluster the models with a set of labeled temporal behavior models, and the resulting information can be printed to the console or programmatically accessed. The results include the likelihood that a machine has a labeled role and lists other machines that are most similar in behavior.

Huffer, KellyM.↗

DOE OSTI2013

Automated Cache Performance Analysis And Optimization

While there is no lack of performance counter tools for coarse-grained measurement of cache activity, there is a critical lack of tools for relating data layout to cache behavior to application performance. Generally, any nontrivial optimizations are either not done at all, or are done ”by hand” requiring significant time and expertise. To the best of our knowledge no tool available to users measures the latency of memory reference instructions for particular addresses and makes this information available to users in an easy-to-use and intuitive way. In this project, we worked to enable the Open|SpeedShop performance analysis tool to gather memory reference latency information for specific instructions and memory addresses, and to gather and display this information in an easy-to-use and intuitive way to aid performance analysts in identifying problematic data structures in their codes. This tool was primarily designed for use in the supercomputer domain as well as grid, cluster, cloud-based parallel e-commerce, and engineering systems and middleware. Ultimately, we envision a tool to automate optimization of application cache layout and utilization in the Open|SpeedShop performance analysis tool. To commercialize this software, we worked to develop core capabilities for gathering enhanced memory usage performance data from applications and create and apply novel methods for automatic data structure layout optimizations, tailoring the overall approach to support existing supercomputer and cluster programming models and constraints. In this Phase I project, we focused on infrastructure necessary to gather performance data and present it in an intuitive way to users. With the advent of enhanced Precise Event-Based Sampling (PEBS) counters on recent Intel processor architectures and equivalent technology on AMD processors, we are now in a position to access memory reference information for particular addresses. Prior to the introduction of PEBS counters, cache behavior could only be measured reliably in the aggregate across tens or hundreds of thousands of instructions. With the newest iteration of PEBS technology, cache events can be tied to a tuple of instruction pointer, target address (for both loads and stores), memory hierarchy, and observed latency. With this information we can now begin asking questions regarding the efficiency of not only regions of code, but how these regions interact with particular data structures and how these interactions evolve over time. In the short term, this information will be vital for performance analysts understanding and optimizing the behavior of their codes for the memory hierarchy. In the future, we can begin to ask how data layouts might be changed to improve performance and, for a particular application, what the theoretical optimal performance might be. The overall benefit to be produced by this effort was a commercial quality easy-to- use and scalable performance tool that will allow both beginner and experienced parallel programmers to automatically tune their applications for optimal cache usage. Effective use of such a tool can literally save weeks of performance tuning effort. Easy to use. With the proposed innovations, finding and fixing memory performance issues would be more automated and hide most to all of the performance engineer expertise ”under the hood” of the Open|SpeedShop performance tool. One of the biggest public benefits from the proposed innovations is that it makes performance analysis more usable to a larger group of application developers. Intuitive reporting of results. The Open|SpeedShop performance analysis tool has a rich set of intuitive, yet detailed reports for presenting performance results to application developers. Our goal was to leverage this existing technology to present the results from our memory performance addition to Open|SpeedShop. Suitable for experts as well as novices. Application performance is getting more difficult to measure as the hardware platforms they run on become more complicated. This makes life difficult for the application developer, in that they need to know more about the hardware platform, including the memory system hierarchy, in order to understand the performance of their application. Some application developers are comfortable in that sceario, while others want to do their scientific research and not have to understand all the nuances in the hardware platform they are running their application on. Our proposed innovations were aimed to support both experts and novice performance analysts. Useful in many markets. The enhancement to Open|SpeedShop would appeal to a broader market space, as it will be useful in scientific, commercial, and cloud computing environments. Our goal was to use technology developed initially at the and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory combined with the development and commercial software experience of the Argo Navis Technologies, LLC (ANT) to form a powerful combination to delivery these objectives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Use Case Realization Report: UCR-03.02.08 Compares Events

This architecturally significant use case describes how the Analyst compares events to determine how similar events were constructed. The Analyst compares waveforms from comparison events by visually inspecting an overlay of the waveforms to determine if the events are from a similar source. The Analyst searches for comparison events or creates agglomerative hierarchical clusters of waveforms from events and determines that the events are from a similar source if the correlation coefficient is above a selected threshold. This use case is architecturally significant due to the introduction of the capability to compare events within an operational context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Encoding and Analyzing Aerial Imagery Using Geospatial Semantic Graphs

While collection capabilities have yielded an ever-increasing volume of aerial imagery, analytic techniques for identifying patterns in and extracting relevant information from this data have seriously lagged. The vast majority of imagery is never examined, due to a combination of the limited bandwidth of human analysts and limitations of existing analysis tools. In this report, we describe an alternative, novel approach to both encoding and analyzing aerial imagery, using the concept of a geospatial semantic graph. The advantages of our approach are twofold. First, intuitive templates can be easily specified in terms of the domain language in which an analyst converses. These templates can be used to automatically and efficiently search large graph databases, for specific patterns of interest. Second, unsupervised machine learning techniques can be applied to automatically identify patterns in the graph databases, exposing recurring motifs in imagery. We illustrate our approach using real-world data for Anne Arundel County, Maryland, and compare the performance of our approach to that of an expert human analyst.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

User Guidelines and Best Practices for CASL VUQ Analysis Using Dakota

Sandia’s Dakota software (available at http://dakota.sandia.gov) supports science and engineering transformation through advanced exploration of simulations. Specifically it manages and analyzes ensembles of simulations to provide broader and deeper perspective for analysts and decision makers. This enables them to enhance understanding of risk, improve products, and assess simulation credibility. In its simplest mode, Dakota can automate typical parameter variation studies through a generic interface to a physics-based computational model. This can lend efficiency and rigor to manual parameter perturbation studies already being conducted by analysts. However, Dakota also delivers advanced parametric analysis techniques enabling design exploration, optimization, model calibration, risk analysis, and quantification of margins and uncertainty with such models. It directly supports verification and validation activities. Dakota algorithms enrich complex science and engineering models, enabling an analyst to answer crucial questions of - Sensitivity: Which are the most important input factors or parameters entering the simulation, and how do they influence key outputs?; Uncertainty: What is the uncertainty or variability in simulation output, given uncertainties in input parameters? How safe, reliable, robust, or variable is my system? (Quantification of margins and uncertainty, QMU); Optimization: What parameter values yield the best performing design or operating condition, given constraints? Calibration: What models and/or parameters best match experimental data? In general, Dakota is the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) delivery vehicle for verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VUQ) algorithms. It permits ready application of the VUQ methods described above to simulation codes by CASL researchers, code developers, and application engineers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Applying Compression-Based Metrics to Seismic Data in Support of Global Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

The analysis of seismic data for evidence of possible nuclear explosion testing is a critical global security mission that relies heavily on human expertise to identify and mark seismic signals embedded in background noise. To assist analysts in making these determinations, we adapted two compression distance metrics for use with seismic data. First, we demonstrated that the Normalized Compression Distance (NCD) metric can be adapted for use with waveform data and can identify the arrival times of seismic signals. Then we tested an approximation for the NCD called Sliding Information Distance (SLID), which can be computed much faster than NCD. We assessed the accuracy of the SLID output by comparing it to both the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the judgments of expert seismic analysts. Our results indicate that SLID effectively identifies arrival times and provides analysts with useful information that can aid their analysis process.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2018

Spatial temporal cluster analysis to enhance awareness of disease re-emergence on a global scale

ObjectiveThe application of spatial analysis to improve the awareness and use of surveillance data.IntroductionThe re-emergence of an infectious disease is dependent on social, political, behavioral, and disease-specific factors. Global disease surveillance is a requisite of early detection that facilitates coordinated interventions to these events. Novel informatics tools developed from publicly available data are constantly evolving with the incorporation of new data streams. Re-emerging Infectious Disease (RED) Alert is an open-source tool designed to help analysts develop a contextual framework when planning for future events, given what has occurred in the past. Geospatial methods assist researchers in making informed decisions by incorporating the power of place to better explain the relationships between variables.MethodsDisease incidence and indicator data derived for the RED Alert project were analyzed for spatial associations. Using aggregate country-level data, spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were identified in ArcMap 10.5.1. The identified clusters were then used as the outcome for a series of binary logistic regression models to determine significant covariates that help explain global hotspots. These methods will continue to evolve and be incorporated into the RED Alert decision support ecosystem to provide analysts with a global perspective on potential re-emergence.ResultsHotspots of high disease incidence in relation to neighboring countries were identified for measles, cholera, dengue, and yellow fever between 2000 and 2014. Disease-specific predictors were identified using aggregate estimates from World Bank indicator dataset. Data was imputed where possible to enhance the validity of the Gi * statistic for clustering. In the future, as data streams become more readily available, hotspot modeling at a finer resolution will help to improve the precision of spatial epidemiology.ConclusionsSpatial methods enhance the capability of understanding complex population and disease relationships, which in turn improves surveillance and the ability to predict re-emergence. With tools like RED Alert, public health analysts can better prepare to respond rapidly to future re-emerging disease threats.

Altherr, Forest M.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Computer-aided analysis of Landsat-1 MSS data - A comparison of three approaches, including a 'modified clustering' approach

Three approaches for analyzing Landsat-1 data from Ludwig Mountain in the San Juan Mountain range in Colorado are considered. In the 'supervised' approach the analyst selects areas of known spectral cover types and specifies these to the computer as training fields. Statistics are obtained for each cover type category and the data are classified. Such classifications are called 'supervised' because the analyst has defined specific areas of known cover types. The second approach uses a clustering algorithm which divides the entire training area into a number of spectrally distinct classes. Because the analyst need not define particular portions of the data for use but has only to specify the number of spectral classes into which the data is to be divided, this classification is called 'nonsupervised'. A hybrid method which selects training areas of known cover type but then uses the clustering algorithm to refine the data into a number of unimodal spectral classes is called the 'modified-supervised' approach.

Fleming, M. D.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Manual interpretation of LANDSAT data

The task of the analyst throughout LACIE phases 1 and 2 consisted of outlining representative areas (fields) for all spectral classes within a segment on the basis of their appearance on the LANDSAT image products, and then labeling the crop type (wheat/nonwheat) within the selected training areas. For LACIE phase 3, a procedure was developed and implemented which incorporated clustering for spectral class definition and training statistics generation. The only analyst's task was crop type identification. The logical processes involved in interpretation are described, rather than a step-by-step description of analyst procedures.

Hay, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS1980

ICAP: An Interactive Cluster Analysis Procedure for analyzing remotely sensed data

An Interactive Cluster Analysis Procedure (ICAP) was developed to derive classifier training statistics from remotely sensed data. The algorithm interfaces the rapid numerical processing capacity of a computer with the human ability to integrate qualitative information. Control of the clustering process alternates between the algorithm, which creates new centroids and forms clusters and the analyst, who evaluate and elect to modify the cluster structure. Clusters can be deleted or lumped pairwise, or new centroids can be added. A summary of the cluster statistics can be requested to facilitate cluster manipulation. The ICAP was implemented in APL (A Programming Language), an interactive computer language. The flexibility of the algorithm was evaluated using data from different LANDSAT scenes to simulate two situations: one in which the analyst is assumed to have no prior knowledge about the data and wishes to have the clusters formed more or less automatically; and the other in which the analyst is assumed to have some knowledge about the data structure and wishes to use that information to closely supervise the clustering process. For comparison, an existing clustering method was also applied to the two data sets.

Wharton, S. W.↗