Exploring the future energy-mobility nexus: The transportation energy & mobility pathway options (TEMPO) model
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Muratori, Matteo↗
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Charging infrastructure access and operation to reduce the grid impacts of deep electric vehicle adoption
Electric vehicles will contribute to emissions reductions in the United States, but their charging may challenge electricity grid operations. We present a data-driven, realistic model of charging demand that captures the diverse charging behaviours of future adopters in the US Western Interconnection. We study charging control and infrastructure build-out as critical factors shaping charging load and evaluate grid impact under rapid electric vehicle adoption with a detailed economic dispatch model of 2035 generation. We find that peak net electricity demand increases by up to 25% with forecast adoption and by 50% in a stress test with full electrification. Locally optimized controls and high home charging can strain the grid. Shifting instead to uncontrolled, daytime charging can reduce storage requirements, excess non-fossil fuel generation, ramping and emissions. Our results urge policymakers to reflect generation-level impacts in utility rates and deploy charging infrastructure that promotes a shift from home to daytime charging.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Smart Mobility in the Cloud: Enabling Real-Time Situational Awareness and Cyber-Physical Control Through a Digital Twin for Traffic
This article presents the design, implementation, and use cases of the Chattanooga Digital Twin (CTwin) towards the vision for next-generation smart city applications for urban mobility management. CTwin is an end-to-end web-based platform that incorporates various aspects of the decision-making process for optimizing urban transportation systems in Chattanooga, Tennessee, to reduce traffic congestion, incidents, and vehicle fuel consumption. The platform serves as a cyberinfrastructure to collect and integrate multi-domain urban mobility data from various online repositories and Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, covering multiple urban aspects (e.g., traffic, natural hazards, weather, and safety) that are relevant to urban mobility management. The platform enables advanced capabilities for: (a) real-time situational awareness on traffic and infrastructure conditions on highways and urban roads, (b) cyber-physical control for optimizing traffic signal timing, and (c) interactive visual analytics on big urban mobility data and various metrics for traffic prediction and transportation performance evaluation. The platform is designed using a multi-level componentization paradigm and is implemented using modular and adaptive architecture, rendering it as a generalizable and extendable prototype for other urban management applications. We present several use cases to demonstrate CTwin's core capabilities for supporting decision-making in smart urban mobility management.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Transportation Electrification Impact Study (TEIS)
Recent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) notices of proposed rulemakings for GHG emissions standards for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty on-road vehicles would accelerate ongoing advancements already happening in the industry because of private investment, consumer demand, state-level policies, and federal incentives. As the EPA finalizes these regulations, questions persist regarding the cost of the requisite charging infrastructure and associated upgrades to the nation's electric grid. With support from the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Joint Office of Energy and Transportation, and the EPA, a multidisciplinary team conducted a Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study that quantitatively assesses the incremental investment necessary to enable the levels of vehicle electrification expected to be induced by pending EPA regulations and to estimate the potential value of deferred investments in electric distribution infrastructure stemming from proactive vehicle-grid integration planning and deployment. This study finds the simulated incremental capital cost of charging infrastructure (including grid upgrades) to be at least 2.5 times smaller than the lifetime net benefits of vehicle electrification (including fuel savings but excluding the value of avoided emissions). Additionally, the incremental distribution grid upgrade cost of the EPA Action-Unmanaged scenario was found to be approximately 3% of existing utility distribution system investments (on an annual basis). Finally, the potential for managed charging to defer distribution grid upgrades was found to be significant with costs found to decrease from $2.3 billion to an incremental cost of $1 billion across five states in the Action-Managed scenario (relative to the No Action-Unmanaged scenario).
ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗
Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study: Preparing the Grid for Light-, Medium-, and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicles
Recent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) notices of proposed rulemakings for GHG emissions standards for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty on-road vehicles would accelerate ongoing advancements already happening in the industry because of private investment, consumer demand, state-level policies, and federal incentives. As the EPA finalizes these regulations, questions persist regarding the cost of the requisite charging infrastructure and associated upgrades to the nation's electric grid. With support from the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Joint Office of Energy and Transportation, and the EPA, a multidisciplinary team conducted a Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study that quantitatively assesses the incremental investment necessary to enable the levels of vehicle electrification expected to be induced by pending EPA regulations and to estimate the potential value of deferred investments in electric distribution infrastructure stemming from proactive vehicle-grid integration planning and deployment. This study finds the simulated incremental capital cost of charging infrastructure (including grid upgrades) to be at least 2.5 times smaller than the lifetime net benefits of vehicle electrification (including fuel savings but excluding the value of avoided emissions). Additionally, the incremental distribution grid upgrade cost of the EPA Action-Unmanaged scenario was found to be approximately 3% of existing utility distribution system investments (on an annual basis). Finally, the potential for managed charging to defer distribution grid upgrades was found to be significant with costs found to decrease from $2.3 billion to an incremental cost of $1 billion across five states in the Action-Managed scenario (relative to the No Action-Unmanaged scenario).
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Holistic Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle/Hydrogen Station Optimization Model (CRADA CRD-18-00745 Final Report)
The National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), Argonne National Lab (ANL), Sandia National Lab (SNL), and Frontier Energy, Inc comprise a team that will perform a review of currently available models that can simulate both a hydrogen station and a fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV), and whose owners are willing to make them available freely. We will then down select to a single model or model pair, secure agreements for their free use, and validate the resulting model or coupled models. For example, we may evaluate an existing 1-D hydrogen fueling model developed by Kyushu University for the Japanese New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO). The validation will take place using data from various sources, potentially including the European Joint Research Center (JRC) HyTransfer project, SAE testing performed by Powertech to validate SAE J2601, and whole-station validation using the NREL’s Hydrogen Infrastructure Testing and Research Facility (HITRF). The team will make the model and all the validation data open to the public at the end of the project.
1-D hydrogen fueling model↗
Hybrid Analytics Solution to Improve Coal Power Plant Operations
This project focused on developing advanced methods for thermal performance monitoring of a coal-fueled power plant. The specific goal was to develop and demonstrate a new thermal performance monitoring approach using a hybrid model that integrates a physics-based heat balance model with a machine learning-based pattern recognition model. The hybrid model enables increased accuracy and scope of the thermal analysis and an improved ability to monitor and detect changes in plant operation. This new approach takes full advantage of the individual model capabilities and creates an important new set of capabilities not previously possible using the two types of models separately. Using the heat balance model, a rich set of derived parameters (virtual sensors) are calculated from the measured plant operating data at each time point. The combined measured and derived data values are used by machine learning algorithms to create pattern recognition models over the range of normal unit operation. To create the monitoring models, historical data from normal operation of the plant is first processed by the heat balance model to compute the derived parameter data. The result is a greatly expanded set of normal operating data that can be used as input to create the pattern recognition model. Once the models are calibrated for normal operation, the hybrid model is suitable for use in continuous online monitoring. During online monitoring, new plant operating data is processed first by the heat balance model and then by the pattern recognition model. Results from the pattern recognition model quantify the deviation of each measured or derived parameter from its expected value in normal operation. The hybrid models can detect abnormal changes in plant operating data with very high accuracy and sensitivity. When abnormal behavior is detected, alerts are generated automatically for evaluation by the plant monitoring staff. The new hybrid solution product was developed and verified in the performance of the project. The hybrid solution was tested first in a simulation environment that mimicked the plant data systems and infrastructure used by U.S. power generating plants and utilities. The hybrid solution was then deployed for real-time, online monitoring of an operating coal-fueled power plant at a field test site. Field testing demonstrated that all hybrid solution development objectives were accomplished. The project work was based on combining the capabilities of two existing software products to create the new hybrid solution product. One of these was the existing MapEx® heat balance product and the other was the existing SureSense® advanced pattern recognition product. Each of these separate products was assessed to be at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 9 at the start of the effort. The hybrid solution product was assessed to be at a TRL of 2 at the start of the project based on early feasibility work by the project team. At completion of the field testing performed in the project, the hybrid solution product was assessed to be at a TRL of 7. The project team expects that the hybrid solution product will be deployed commercially and will achieve a TRL of 9 within one year after completion of the project.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Challenges and Opportunities in Decarbonizing the U.S. Energy System
The United States has pledged to develop a 100% carbon-free electric power system by 2035 and a net-zero-emissions economy by 2050. While important advancements have been made in the scale, performance, and economics of clean energy technologies, meeting the nation's ambitious goals will not only require their deployment at scale, but also additional innovation and effective integration of different solutions. Technological developments across the broad suite of low-carbon energy solutions are advancing rapidly, with ongoing innovations in renewable electricity generation, industrial processes, and energy-saving technologies and services, including LED lighting, induction heating, electric vehicles, energy storage solutions, and mobility as a service, plus smart devices, controls, and more efficient and smart buildings. Combining renewable electricity with biotic and abiotic pathways to produce chemicals, fuels, and materials promises to deliver new solutions. Grid-interactive buildings and communities, integrating transportation infrastructure and vehicles, are likely to be significant components of any zero-carbon energy strategy. Low-carbon industrial manufacturing will also make strong contributions to a net-zero economy. While the technical prospects appear promising, variations in the state of infrastructure, jurisdictional and social equity, pollution, economic and socio-cultural constraints, energy resource availability, and supply chain dynamics found in different locations present a range of challenges and demand customized solutions. This paper provides a critical review and offers new insights into the technical, infrastructure, analytic, political, and economic challenges faced in translating the nation's ambitious net-zero-emissions goals into feasible and reliable implementation action plans.
circular economy↗
Massachusetts and New England SAF Study [Slides]
The Massachusetts Port Authority established a project to assess feedstock availability to produce SAF near 10 New England airports. A techno-economic analysis was conducted to determine renewable fuels and SAF that could be produced from these feedstocks. The resource assessment found municipal solid waste, woody biomass, and food waste were most abundant. The techno-economic analysis found that potential fuel production varied widely based on location, feedstock, and technology production pathway. An assessment of infrastructure readiness to handle SAF was conducted. It was determined that SAF produced outside of New England should be blended in other regions with more capacity and flexibility and delivered to New England as Jet A is today. For SAF produced in New England, there are terminals that have existing infrastructure to receive, blend, and distribute SAF/Jet A blends.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Simultaneous flow of zero-carbon and conventional fuel liquids through Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (Abstract)
The purpose of this CRADA is to address key technical challenges specific to the transport of ammonia, a promising carbon-free fuel and hydrogen-carrier, through crude oil pipelines. Specifically, the project seeks to develop novel technologies for preparing liquid ammonia/ hydrocarbon mixtures for the dual purpose of (i) pipeline transport, and (ii) developing advanced marine fuel blends. By demonstrating compatibility with the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline System (TAPS) ammonia/oil blends may improve access to stranded natural gas and help overcome low-flow issues associated with declining oil productivity. In Alaska, this technology enhances the capabilities of TAPS allowing it to function as a statewide “Hydrogen Highway” for exporting green or blue ammonia. This is strategically important for Alaska which lacks statewide electrical transmission infrastructure but contains vast renewable and fossil resources located in remote regions with few local markets. Nationally, Alaska-sourced green (hydropower) or blue ammonia has the potential to improve reliability of a Pacific Northwest hydrogen storage hub as a hydrogen-carrier by helping to overcome seasonality of green hydrogen produced from solar or wind energy. Globally, this technology project has significant potential to improve the safety and efficacy of ammonia-rich fuel compositions for use in maritime propulsion and other mid-sized engines.
10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
Simultaneous flow of zero-carbon and conventional fuel liquids through Trans-Alaska Pipeline System [Abstract]
The purpose of this CRADA is to address key technical challenges specific to the transport of ammonia, a promising carbon-free fuel and hydrogen-carrier, through crude oil pipelines. Specifically, the project seeks to develop novel technologies for preparing liquid ammonia/ hydrocarbon mixtures for the dual purpose of (i) pipeline transport, and (ii) developing advanced marine fuel blends. By demonstrating compatibility with the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline System (TAPS) ammonia/oil blends may improve access to stranded natural gas and help overcome low-flow issues associated with declining oil productivity. In Alaska, this technology enhances the capabilities of TAPS allowing it to function as a statewide “Hydrogen Highway” for exporting green or blue ammonia. This is strategically important for Alaska which lacks statewide electrical transmission infrastructure but contains vast renewable and fossil resources located in remote regions with few local markets. Nationally, Alaska-sourced green (hydropower) or blue ammonia has the potential to improve reliability of a Pacific Northwest hydrogen storage hub as a hydrogen-carrier by helping to overcome seasonality of green hydrogen produced from solar or wind energy. Globally, this technology project has significant potential to improve the safety and efficacy of ammonia-rich fuel compositions for use in maritime propulsion and other mid-sized engines.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Integrated Approach to Post-Irradiation Examination of Nuclear Materials at Idaho National Laboratory
Idaho national Laboratory (INL) is the U.S. lead national laboratory for the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), providing much of the nuclear research, development and demonstration capability needed to move nuclear innovation forward to deployment. INL’s Materials and Fuels Complex hosts a unique combination of personnel, facilities and infrastructure and offers the ability to perform post-irradiation examinations (PIE) of nuclear materials spanning multiple length scales. The ability to combine engineering-scale analysis and sub-microscopic characterization provides valuable insights into fuel and structural material behavior and degradation mechanisms. The holistic approach is used to accelerate these materials demonstration and deployment. Selected studies will be presented, highlighting the impact of these techniques on improving fuel reliability, safety, and efficiency, thereby advancing the development of sustainable and advanced nuclear energy technologies.
11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Massachusetts and New England Sustainable Aviation Fuel Study
The Massachusetts Port Authority established a project to assess feedstock availability to produce SAF near 10 New England airports. A techno-economic analysis was conducted to determine renewable fuels and SAF that could be produced from these feedstocks. The resource assessment found municipal solid waste, woody biomass, and food waste were most abundant. The techno-economic analysis found that potential fuel production varied widely based on location, feedstock, and technology production pathway ranging from 1 to 369 million gallons of gasoline equivalent per year. An assessment of infrastructure readiness to handle SAF was conducted. It was determined that SAF produced outside of New England should be blended in other regions with more capacity and flexibility and delivered to New England as Jet A is today. For SAF produced in New England, there are terminals that have existing infrastructure to receive, blend, and distribute SAF/Jet A blends.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Infrastructure and resource development needs to support a significant expansion of US nuclear capacity
In December 2023, the United States pledged at a United Nations conference to triple nuclear energy by 2050. In May of 2025 a new administration announced plans to quadruple nuclear energy by 2025, setting a new target that requires understanding the key infrastructure and resources needed to achieve large-scale deployment. This study attempts to quantify “what it takes” to deploy an additional 200 GWe of nuclear capacity. It projects demand levels for workforce, fuel, uranium mining and enrichment, waste management, supply chain, land, licensing, and water. Demand growth is also contextualized. For example, the peak number of construction workers required is approximately 215,000, a 37 % increase in the current US utility construction workforce. Up to 80,000 MT/year of mined uranium will be needed, necessitating a 60-fold increase in US mining production or a doubling of global mining if sourced externally. Advanced reactor fuels, uranium mining, and nuclear-grade equipment production would need substantial expansion. Operational workforce, enrichment needs, and licensing submissions also face significant increases. Although water consumption may see relatively lower increases, securing water rights poses unique challenges. This study consolidates various demand metrics in a broad context, highlighting the necessity of early preparations, such as workforce training, to support a tripling of nuclear energy. While it outlines the demand-side requirements, it does not assess the difficulties of ramping up or other supply-side issues. The findings also shed light on the impact of reactor size and reactor technology on various demand metrics.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Today's Energy Challenges, Tomorrow's Solutions: Integrated Energy Pathways: Modernizing Our Energy Systems
Integrated Energy Pathways Today's electric grid was built for century-old needs, not the needs of tomorrow's emerging system. As the cost of generating electricity falls, products and systems that previously operated on other types of fuels are becoming increasingly "electrified." Instead of a one-way flow of electricity to systems that operate independently from one another, we are seeing more bi-directional connectivity between the grid and multiple end points. Integrated Energy Systems require a fundamental rethinking of grid infrastructure and the path electricity takes from the source of generation to the end point of use. Inevitably, the way the grid is managed today won't be the way it is managed 10-15 years from now. NREL is pioneering the fundamental research needed to guide this transition through renewable energy fuels and low-carbon electricity generation. Working with industry partners, we can collaboratively develop a fresh approach to energy generation, security, resilience, and advanced mobility.
energy security↗
Adoption of Plug-in Electric Vehicles: Local Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions Across the U.S.
The dependence on gasoline-powered light-duty automobiles has made U.S. households vulnerable to the burden of fuel costs. Tailpipe emissions from these vehicles constitute 58% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S., which are damaging to the environment (EPA, 2023). The adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) has been shown to effectively reduce fuel costs and GHG emissions. However, local effects on these benefits are not well understood by American consumers, potentially limiting adoption and therefore the realization of PEV benefits at scale (MacInnis & Krosnick, 2020; EY Americas, 2023). To fill this research gap, this study estimates the fuel cost savings and GHG emission reductions at the state and ZIP code levels by considering local fuel prices, vehicle class preference, average vehicle model year, fuel efficiencies, and driving intensities. The study's findings reveal that the adoption of PEVs can yield substantial benefits in terms of fuel cost savings and GHG emission reductions nationwide. Specifically, driving a battery electric vehicle (BEV) is estimated to result in annual savings of up to $\$2,200$, while driving a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) can lead to savings up to $\$1,500$, when compared to an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) of equivalent size. Moreover, using population-weighted averages by ZIP code, BEVs and PHEVs show the potential to save 400 and 200 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per mile, respectively, compared to a representative ICEV of the same class. The magnitude of fuel cost savings and emissions reduction vary by region due to various factors. Generally, regions with high gasoline prices, low electricity prices, preferences for larger vehicles, and high driving intensities tend to see relatively large fuel savings. The emissions reductions are more pronounced in areas with clean grids where consumer preferences lie with large vehicles. This regional variability underscores the importance of considering local contextual factors when assessing the potential benefits of PEV adoption. In more than 99% of U.S. ZIP codes, PEVs result in overall savings in fuel use (and subsequent costs) and GHG emissions. While not a central focus of this analysis, reductions in GHG tailpipe emissions from PEV adoption would also come with reductions in criteria pollutant emissions, contributing to improved local air quality depending on the PEV penetration, population density, and electricity generation infrastructure in the locality.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Emerging materials intelligence ecosystems propelled by machine learning
We report that the age of cognitive computing and artificial intelligence (AI) is just dawning. Inspired by its successes and promises, several AI ecosystems are blossoming, many of them within the domain of materials science and engineering. These materials intelligence ecosystems are being shaped by several independent developments. Machine learning (ML) algorithms and extant materials data are utilized to create surrogate models of materials properties and performance predictions. Materials data repositories, which fuel such surrogate model development, are mushrooming. Automated data and knowledge capture from the literature (to populate data repositories) using natural language processing approaches is being explored. The design of materials that meet target property requirements and of synthesis steps to create target materials appear to be within reach, either by closed-loop active-learning strategies or by inverting the prediction pipeline using advanced generative algorithms. AI and ML concepts are also transforming the computational and physical laboratory infrastructural landscapes used to create materials data in the first place. Surrogate models that can outstrip physics-based simulations (on which they are trained) by several orders of magnitude in speed while preserving accuracy are being actively developed. Automation, autonomy and guided high-throughput techniques are imparting enormous efficiencies and eliminating redundancies in materials synthesis and characterization. The integration of the various parts of the burgeoning ML landscape may lead to materials-savvy digital assistants and to a human-machine partnership that could enable dramatic efficiencies, accelerated discoveries and increased productivity. Here, we review these emergent materials intelligence ecosystems and discuss the imminent challenges and opportunities. The materials research landscape is being transformed by the infusion of approaches based on machine learning. This Review discusses the emerging materials intelligence ecosystems and the potential of human-machine partnerships for fast and efficient virtual materials screening, development and discovery.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Plan for a Data Base Approach to Evaluating LWR Plant Integration with Hydrogen and Industrial Facilities
The purpose of this report is to provide an outline and scope of a database tool that could be used to identify the most beneficial locations to site a hydrogen, chemical facility or other industrial facility that would be powered by nuclear energy. This energy may be in the form of electricity produced by the plant, heat in the form of steam or both. In addition, this siting tool should consider factors such as economics, geography, industries, residences, geological hydrogen storage, and key infrastructure. The infrastructure to be considered could include pipelines or other storage and transportation facilities to carry the created products from the production facility to the end user. Also considered should be infrastructure that could deliver needed chemicals or gasses to allow the production of desired products such as ammonia or biofuels. This data base tool should allow a screening study of all U.S. nuclear plants to identify opportunities and barriers to creating hydrogen hubs around nuclear power plants. For this effort, it has been decided that the Siting Tool for Advanced Nuclear Development (STAND) would be used to conduct this screening study which is a follow-on research project to this present effort. Currently, plans are being developed to modify the STAND tool to provide the capability necessary to perform screening of each US commercial nuclear plant to identify the best locations to site hydrogen or chemical production facilities. Many features of the current STAND tool will be employed to meet this objective, but additional infrastructure data (such as the location of pipelines) may need to be added to allow these locations to be fully vetted. In addition, new analysis capabilities may need to be added so economic considerations can be understood
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗