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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests

Here, the seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measurements and 35 litter productivity measurements), their associated canopy photosynthetic capacity (enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate, we ask how carbon assimilation and aboveground allocation are related to climate seasonality in tropical forests and how they interact in the seasonal carbon cycle. We found that canopy photosynthetic capacity seasonality responds positively to precipitation when rainfall is < 2000 mm yr -1 (water-limited forests) and to radiation otherwise (light-limited forests). On the other hand, independent of climate limitations, wood productivity and litterfall are driven by seasonal variation in precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. Consequently, light-limited forests present an asynchronism between canopy photosynthetic capacity and wood productivity. First-order control by precipitation likely indicates a decrease in tropical forest productivity in a drier climate in water-limited forest, and in current light-limited forest with future rainfall < 2000 mm yr -1 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A 1 km soil moisture dataset over eastern CONUS generated by assimilating SMAP data into the Noah-MP land surface model

An improved fine-scale soil moisture (SM) dataset at 1 km grid spacing, covering much of the eastern continental US, was generated by assimilating 9 km Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) SM data into the v4.0.1 Noah-MP land surface model. With 12 ensemble members, the assimilation was carried out using the ensemble Kalman filter algorithm within NASA's Land Information System. The SM analysis for 2016 was fully validated against in situ observations from four different networks and compared with four other existing datasets. Results indicate that this SM analysis surpasses other datasets in top-layer SM distribution, including a machine-learning-based product, despite all SM estimates being less heterogeneous than observed. The analysis of anomalous errors suggests that large similarity in intrinsic errors is likely due to overlapping data sources among the selected SM datasets. More detailed evaluations were performed over two geographic areas. The observations collected by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility in Oklahoma suggest that soil temperature and surface heat fluxes are concurrently simulated with good accuracy. Investigation into the 2016 southeastern US drought response further indicates drier conditions and higher evapotranspiration estimates compared to GLEAMv4.1. Notably, large errors are associated with grids having clay soil textures, underscoring the need for refined model treatments for specific soil types to further improve SM estimates. The dataset is publicly available on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14370563 (Tai et al., 2024).

Tai, Sheng-Lun [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards physics-inspired data-driven weather forecasting: integrating data assimilation with a deep spatial-transformer-based U-NET in a case study with ERA5

Abstract. There is growing interest in data-driven weather prediction (DDWP), e.g., using convolutional neural networks such as U-NET that are trained on data from models or reanalysis. Here, we propose three components, inspired by physics, to integrate with commonly used DDWP models in order to improve their forecast accuracy. These components are (1) a deep spatial transformer added to the latent space of U-NET to capture rotation and scaling transformation in the latent space for spatiotemporal data, (2) a data-assimilation (DA) algorithm to ingest noisy observations and improve the initial conditions for next forecasts, and (3) a multi-time-step algorithm, which combines forecasts from DDWP models with different time steps through DA, improving the accuracy of forecasts at short intervals. To show the benefit and feasibility of each component, we use geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) from ERA5 reanalysis and examine the short-term forecast accuracy of specific setups of the DDWP framework. Results show that the spatial-transformer-based U-NET (U-STN) clearly outperforms the U-NET, e.g., improving the forecast skill by 45 %. Using a sigma-point ensemble Kalman (SPEnKF) algorithm for DA and U-STN as the forward model, we show that stable, accurate DA cycles are achieved even with high observation noise. This DDWP+DA framework substantially benefits from large (O(1000)) ensembles that are inexpensively generated with the data-driven forward model in each DA cycle. The multi-time-step DDWP+DA framework also shows promise; for example, it reduces the average error by factors of 2–3. These results show the benefits and feasibility of these three components, which are flexible and can be used in a variety of DDWP setups. Furthermore, while here we focus on weather forecasting, the three components can be readily adopted for other parts of the Earth system, such as ocean and land, for which there is a rapid growth of data and need for forecast and assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-dimensional variational data assimilation with machine-learned reduced-order models

Abstract. Data assimilation (DA) in geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction and is a crucial building block that has allowed dramatic improvements in weather forecasting over the past few decades. DA is commonly framed in a variational setting, where one solves an optimization problem within a Bayesian formulation using raw model forecasts as a prior and observations as likelihood. This leads to a DA objective function that needs to be minimized, where the decision variables are the initial conditions specified to the model. In traditional DA, the forward model is numerically and computationally expensive. Here we replace the forward model with a low-dimensional, data-driven, and differentiable emulator. Consequently, gradients of our DA objective function with respect to the decision variables are obtained rapidly via automatic differentiation. We demonstrate our approach by performing an emulator-assisted DA forecast of geopotential height. Our results indicate that emulator-assisted DA is faster than traditional equation-based DA forecasts by 4 orders of magnitude, allowing computations to be performed on a workstation rather than a dedicated high-performance computer. In addition, we describe accuracy benefits of emulator-assisted DA when compared to simply using the emulator for forecasting (i.e., without DA). Our overall formulation is denoted AIEADA (Artificial Intelligence Emulator-Assisted Data Assimilation).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

PyDDA: A Pythonic Direct Data Assimilation Framework for Wind Retrievals

This software assimilates data from an arbitrary number of weather radars together with other spatial wind fields (eg numerical weather forecasting model data) in order to retrieve high resolution three dimensional wind fields. PyDDA uses NumPy and SciPy’s optimization techniques combined with the Python Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Radar Toolkit (Py-ART) in order to create wind fields using the 3D variational technique (3DVAR). PyDDA is hosted and distributed on GitHub at https://github.com/openradar/PyDDA. PyDDA has the potential to be used by the atmospheric science community to develop high resolution wind retrievals from radar networks. These retrievals can be used for the evaluation of numerical weather forecasting models and plume modelling. This paper shows how wind fields from 2 NEXt generation RADar (NEXRAD) WSR-88D radars and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh can be assimilated together using PyDDA to create a high resolution wind field inside Hurricane Florence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-time ensemble microalgae growth forecasting with data assimilation

Accurate short-range (e.g., 7-day) microalgae growth forecasts will be beneficial for both production and harvesting of microalgae. This study developed an operational microalgae growth forecasting system with ensemble data assimilation (DA). The forecasting system was validated against observed Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM growth in two outdoor pond cultures located in Mesa, Arizona, U.S. We first examined the relative roles of uncertainty in the meteorological forecast and initial conditions (i.e., algal concentration at the time of forecast) in the microalgae 7-day forecast and found initial conditions dominated the microalgae forecasting skill, suggesting the importance of implementing DA to improve initial condition characterization. To correct the systematic bias in biomass simulations, we developed a particle filter with bias estimation (PFBE) DA method to estimate biases and correct the model forecast. We found the DA forecasting system could improve the 7-day microalgae forecasting skill by about 85% on average compared to model forecasts without DA. These results suggest the potential accuracy of biomass growth forecasts may be sufficient to inform real-time operational decisions, such as harvesting planning, for commercial-scale microalgae production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Randomized Preconditioned Solvers for Strong Constraint 4D-Var Data Assimilation

The Strong Constraint 4D Variational (SC-4DVAR) data assimilation method is widely used in climate and weather applications. SC-4DVAR involves solving a minimization problem to compute the maximum a posteriori estimate, which we tackle using the Gauss-Newton method. The computation of the descent direction is expensive since it involves the solution of a large-scale and potentially ill-conditioned linear system, solved using the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method. Here, to address this cost, we efficiently construct scalable preconditioners using three different randomization techniques, which all rely on a certain low-rank structure involving the Gauss-Newton Hessian. The proposed techniques come with theoretical guarantees on the condition number, and at the same time, are amenable to parallelization. We also develop an adaptive approach to estimate the sketch size and choose between the reuse or recomputation of the preconditioner. We demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of our methodology on two representative model problems—the Burgers and barotropic vorticity equation—showing a drastic reduction in both the number of PCG iterations and the number of Gauss-Newton Hessian products after including the preconditioner construction cost.

Gauss-Newton↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation coupled with low-resolution computations techniques applied in fluid dynamics

This paper presents an innovative Reduced-order model (ROM) for merging experimental and simulation data using data assimilation (DA) to estimate the "True" state of a fluid dynamics system, leading to more accurate predictions. Our methodology introduces a novel approach by implementing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within a reduced-dimensional framework, grounded in a robust theoretical foundation and applied to fluid dynamics. To address the substantial computational demands of DA, the proposed ROM employs low-resolution (LR) techniques to drastically reduce computational costs. This innovative approach involves downsampling datasets for DA computations, followed by an advanced reconstruction technique based on low-cost singular value decomposition (lcSVD). The lcSVD method, a key innovation in this paper, has never been applied to DA before and offers a highly efficient way to enhance resolution with minimal computational resources. Our results demonstrate significant reductions in both computation time and RAM usage through these LR techniques without compromising the accuracy of the estimations. For instance, in a turbulent test case, for a data compression rate of 15.9, the LR approach can achieve a speed-up of 13.7 and a RAM compression of 90.9% while maintaining a low relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 2.6%, compared to 0.8% in the high-resolution (HR) reference. Furthermore, we highlight the effectiveness of the EnKF in estimating and predicting the state of fluid flow systems based on limited observations and given low-fidelity numerical data. This paper highlights the potential of the proposed DA method in fluid dynamics applications, particularly for improving computational efficiency in CFD and related fields. Its ability to balance accuracy with low computational and memory costs makes it especially suitable for large-scale and real-time applications, such as environmental monitoring or engineering design. This method will be incorporated into ModelFLOWs-app.

Data Assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2017

Displacement data assimilation

We show that modifying a Bayesian data assimilation scheme by incorporating kinematically-consistent displacement corrections produces a scheme that is demonstrably better at estimating partially observed state vectors in a setting where feature information is important. While the displacement transformation is generic, here we implement it within an ensemble Kalman Filter framework and demonstrate its effectiveness in tracking stochastically perturbed vortices.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble variational Fokker-Planck methods for data assimilation

Particle flow filters solve Bayesian inference problems by smoothly transforming a set of particles into samples from the posterior distribution. Particles move in state space under the flow of an McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process. This work introduces the Variational Fokker-Planck (VFP) framework for data assimilation, a general approach that includes previously known particle flow filters as special cases. The McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process that transforms particles is defined via an optimal drift that depends on the selected diffusion term. It is established that the underlying probability density - sampled by the ensemble of particles - converges to the Bayesian posterior probability density. For a finite number of particles the optimal drift contains a regularization term that nudges particles toward becoming independent random variables. Based on this analysis, we derive computationally-feasible approximate regularization approaches that penalize the mutual information between pairs of particles, and avoid particle collapse. Moreover, the diffusion plays a role akin to a particle rejuvenation approach that aims to alleviate particle collapse. The VFP framework is very flexible. Different assumptions on prior and intermediate probability distributions can be used to implement the optimal drift, and localization and covariance shrinkage can be applied to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. A robust implicit-explicit method is discussed for the efficient integration of stiff McKean- Vlasov-Itˆo processes. Here, the effectiveness of the VFP framework is demonstrated on three progressively more challenging test problems, namely the Lorenz ’63, Lorenz ’96 and the quasi-geostrophic equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identifying snowfall elevation patterns by assimilating satellite-based snow depth retrievals

Precipitation in mountain regions is highly variable and poorly measured, posing important challenges to water resource management. Traditional methods to estimate precipitation include in-situ gauges, Doppler weather radars, satellite radars and radiometers, numerical modeling and reanalysis products. Each of these methods is unable to adequately capture complex orographic precipitation. Here, we propose a novel approach to characterize orographic snowfall over mountain regions. We use a particle batch smoother to leverage satellite information from Sentinel-1 derived snow depth retrievals and to correct various gridded precipitation products. This novel approach is tested using a simple snow model for an alpine basin located in Trentino Alto Adige, Italy. Here, we quantify the precipitation biases across the basin and found that the assimilation method (i) corrects for snowfall biases and uncertainties, (ii) leads to cumulative snowfall elevation patterns that are consistent across precipitation products, and (iii) results in overall improved basin-wide snow variables (snow depth and snow cover area) and basin streamflow estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward data assimilation of ship-induced aerosol–cloud interactions

Satellite imagery can detect temporary cloud trails or ship tracks formed from aerosols emitted from large ships traversing our oceans, a phenomenon that global climate models cannot directly reproduce. Ship tracks are observable examples of marine cloud brightening, a potential solar climate intervention that shows promise in helping combat climate change. In this paper, we demonstrate a simulation-based approach in learning the behavior of ship tracks based upon a novel stochastic emulation mechanism. Our method uses wind fields to determine the movement of aerosol–cloud tracks and uses a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) to model their persistence behavior. This SPDE incorporates both a drift and diffusion term which describes the movement of aerosol particles via wind and their diffusivity through the atmosphere, respectively. We first present our proposed approach with examples using simulated wind fields and ship paths. We then successfully demonstrate our tool by applying the approximate Bayesian computation method-sequential Monte Carlo for data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics‐Informed Machine Learning Method for Large‐Scale Data Assimilation Problems

Abstract We develop a physics‐informed machine learning approach for large‐scale data assimilation and parameter estimation and apply it for estimating transmissivity and hydraulic head in the two‐dimensional steady‐state subsurface flow model of the Hanford Site given synthetic measurements of said variables. In our approach, we extend the physics‐informed conditional Karhunen‐Loéve expansion (PICKLE) method to modeling subsurface flow with unknown flux (Neumann) and varying head (time‐dependent Dirichlet) boundary conditions. We demonstrate that the PICKLE method is comparable in accuracy with the standard maximum a posteriori (MAP) method, but is significantly faster than MAP for large‐scale problems. Both methods use a mesh to discretize the computational domain. In MAP, the parameters and states are discretized on the mesh; therefore, the size of the MAP parameter estimation problem directly depends on the mesh size. In PICKLE, the mesh is used to evaluate the residuals of the governing equation, while the parameters and states are approximated by the truncated conditional Karhunen‐Loéve expansions with the number of parameters controlled by the smoothness of the parameter and state fields, and not by the mesh size. For a considered example, we demonstrate that the computational cost of PICKLE increases near linearly (as N 1.15 ) with the number of grid nodes N , while that of MAP increases much faster (as N 3.28 ). We also show that once trained for one set of Dirichlet boundary conditions (i.e., one river stage), the PICKLE method provides accurate estimates of the hydraulic head for any value of the Dirichlet boundary conditions (i.e., for any river stage).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Roles of Nicotinamide Adenine Dinucleotide Phosphate Reoxidation and Ammonium Assimilation in the Secretion of Amino Acids as Byproducts of Clostridium thermocellum

Improving the ethanol yield of C. thermocellum is important for the industrial implementation of this microorganism in consolidated bioprocessing. A central role of NADPH in driving amino acid byproduct formation was demonstrated by eliminating the NADPH-supplying malate shunt and separately by changing the cofactor specificity in ammonium assimilation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

PyOED: An Extensible Suite for Data Assimilation and Model-Constrained Optimal Design of Experiments

This article describes PyOED, a highly extensible scientific package that enables developing and testing model-constrained optimal experimental design (OED) for inverse problems. Specifically, PyOED aims to be a comprehensive Python toolkit for model-constrained OED. The package targets scientists and researchers interested in understanding the details of OED formulations and approaches. It is also meant to enable researchers to experiment with standard and innovative OED technologies with a wide range of test problems (e.g., simulation models). OED, inverse problems (e.g., Bayesian inversion), and data assimilation (DA) are closely related research fields, and their formulations overlap significantly. Thus, PyOED is continuously being expanded with a plethora of Bayesian inversion, DA, and OED methods as well as new scientific simulation models, observation error models, and observation operators. These pieces are added such that they can be permuted to enable testing OED methods in various settings of varying complexities. The PyOED core is completely written in Python and utilizes the inherent object-oriented capabilities; however, the current version of PyOED is meant to be extensible rather than scalable. Specifically, PyOED is developed to “enable rapid development and benchmarking of OED methods with minimal coding effort and to maximize code reutilization.” This article provides a brief description of the PyOED layout and philosophy and provides a set of exemplary test cases and tutorials to demonstrate the potential of the package.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Assimilation of Time-Averaged Pseudoproxies for Climate Reconstruction

The efficacy of a novel ensemble data assimilation (DA) technique is examined in the climate field reconstruction (CFR) of surface temperature. A minimalistic, computationally inexpensive DA technique is employed that requires only a static ensemble of climatologically plausible states. Pseudoproxy experiments are performed with both general circulation model (GCM) and Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data by reconstructing surface temperature fields from a sparse network of noisy pseudoproxies. The DA approach is compared to a conventional CFR approach based on principal component analysis (PCA) for experiments on global domains. DA outperforms PCA in reconstructing global-mean temperature in all experiments and is more consistent across experiments, with a range of time series correlations of 0.69–0.94 compared to 0.19–0.87 for the PCA method. DA improvements are even more evident in spatial reconstruction skill, especially in sparsely sampled pseudoproxy regions and for 20CR experiments. It is hypothesized that DA improves spatial reconstructions because it relies on coherent, spatially local temperature patterns, which remain robust even when glacial states are used to reconstruct nonglacial states and vice versa. These local relationships, as utilized by DA, appear to be more robust than the orthogonal patterns of variability utilized by PCA. Comparing results for GCM and 20CR data indicates that pseudoproxy experiments that rely solely on GCM data may give a false impression of reconstruction skill.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Heavy Rainfall Mechanism Revealed by a Terrain-Resolving 4DVar Data Assimilation System—A Case Study

In this study, a newly developed terrain-resolving four-dimensional variational (4DVar)-based data assimilation system, Immersed Boundary Method_Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (IBM_VDRAS), is applied to investigate the mechanisms leading to a heavy precipitation event that occurred in Taiwan during the Southwesterly Monsoon Experiment (SoWMEX) conducted in 2008. The multivariate analyses using IBM_VDRAS and surface observations reveal that the warm and moist southwesterly flow from the ocean decelerates after making landfall, forming a surface convergence zone along the coast, which is further strengthened during the passage of a prefrontal rainband. The flow ascends as it advances inland until reaching the mountains, producing persistent precipitation and the enhancement of evaporative cooling as well as a widespread high pressure zone. A very shallow (<0.4 km) layer of offshore flow can be identified over the southwestern plain, which helps to generate a quasi-stationary convergence zone near the coast. Furthermore, sensitivity studies are carried out to quantify the relative importance of the contributions made by topographic blockage, evaporative cooling, and their nonlinear interaction, to the evolution of this type of convective system. The influence of the topography is identified as the dominant factor in modulating the flow structure of the rainfall system. However, it is the nonlinear interaction between terrain and evaporation that determines the distribution of the temperature and pressure fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗