Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “2021”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Regional Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations for Southern California With EQSIM: Insights From the 2008 Chino Hills, 2024 Highland Park, and 2021 Carson Earthquakes

This study presents physics-based, 3D simulations using the EQSIM framework for several earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The primary objective was to assess the ability of deterministic physics-based ground motion simulations to reproduce the observed motions from historical events. The selected events included the mathematical equation M w 5.4 2008 Chino Hills, the mathematical equation M w 4.4 2024 Highland Park, and the mathematical equation M w 4.3 2021 Carson events. The simulated motions were evaluated by comparing the recorded and simulated seismograms, as well as the Fourier amplitude spectra, across multiple seismic stations. The SCEC 3D velocity model, CVM-S4.26.M01, was used to represent the regional geology, and ground motion simulations were carried out with a resolution of up to 5 Hz. The results indicate that the simulated motions captured the recorded motions up to approximately 4 Hz. While careful iterations regarding source parameters and corner frequencies were required, and, for the case of the Highland Park event, some of the near-source stations had relatively low accuracy, the present study established a positive step toward the utilization of physics-based simulations in practical applications. The computational efficiencies exhibited by EQSIM, especially on GPU clusters, further supported this assertion, as wall-clock times of simulations involving more than 10 billion grid points were as low as mathematical equation minutes. This permits ensemble simulations for a considered scenario event so that modeling uncertainties (e.g., source and geology) can be bracketed.

EQSIM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Smoky Mountain Data Challenge 2021: An Open Call to Solve Scientific Data Challenges Using Advanced Data Analytics and Edge Computing

The 2021 Smoky Mountains Computational Sciences and Engineering Conference enlists scientists from across Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and industry to be data sponsors and help create data analytics and edge computing challenges for eminent datasets in a variety of scientific domains. This work describes the significance of each of the eight datasets and their associated challenge questions. The challenge questions for each dataset were required to cover multiple difficulty levels. An international call for participation was sent to students, asking them to form teams of up to six people and apply novel data analytics and edge computing methods to solve these challenges.

Devineni, Pravallika↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trajectory of Growth of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variants in Houston, Texas, January through May 2021, Based on 12,476 Genome Sequences

Certain genetic variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are of substantial concern because they may be more transmissible or detrimentally alter the pandemic course and disease features in individual patients. SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from 12,476 patients in the Houston Methodist health care system diagnosed from January 1 through May 31, 2021 are reported here. Prevalence of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant increased rapidly and caused 63% to 90% of new cases in the latter half of May. Eleven B.1.1.7 genomes had an E484K replacement in spike protein, a change also identified in other SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Compared with non–B.1.1.7-infected patients, individuals with B.1.1.7 had a significantly lower cycle threshold (a proxy for higher virus load) and significantly higher hospitalization rate. Other variants [eg, B.1.429 and B.1.427 (Epsilon), P.1 (Gamma), P.2 (Zeta), and R.1] also increased rapidly, although the magnitude was less than that in B.1.1.7. Twenty-two patients infected with B.1.617.1 (Kappa) or B.1.617.2 (Delta) variants had a high rate of hospitalization. Breakthrough cases (n = 207) in fully vaccinated patients were caused by a heterogeneous array of virus genotypes, including many not currently designated variants of interest or concern. Finally, in the aggregate, this study delineates the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in a major metropolitan area, documents B.1.1.7 as the major cause of new cases in Houston, TX, and heralds the arrival of B.1.617 variants in the metroplex.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simultaneous creation of a large vapor plume and pumice raft by the 2021 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba shallow submarine eruption

The 12 August 2021 eruption of Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba, a shallow submarine volcano in the Izu-Bonin arc of Japan, is one of few documented submarine eruptions to make a large aerial plume and floating pumice raft. Relative to past eruptions, this event was well-covered by multiple high resolution satellite remote sensors, raising the possibility of resolving important questions about the timing of raft and plume formation, and their relationship. Here we use satellite remote sensing to assess the eruption timeline, style, rates, and products. We use the Himawari-8 satellite to assess the plume volume flux and height through time. In addition, we use a combination of ultra-high resolution satellite imagery to assess the timing and mechanisms of raft formation. We find that the 16 km eruption plume was ice-rich and conclude that the 0.1 km3 raft and eruption plume were co-genetic. Finally, we suggest that pumice clasts were delivered to the raft by tephra jets, ballistics, and near-vent fallout from the plume. Together our observations reveal that the fallout of pumice lapilli from a water-rich eruption column generated a large pumice raft.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework

Flood prediction systems need hierarchical atmospheric, hydrologic, and hydraulic models to predict rainfall, runoff, streamflow, and floodplain inundation. The accuracy of such systems depends on the error propagation through the modeling chain, sensitivity to input data, and choice of models. In this study, we used multiple precipitation forcings (hindcast and forecast) to drive hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to analyze the impacts of various drivers on the estimates of flood inundation depth and extent. We implement this framework to unravel the August 2021 extreme flooding event that occurred in Central Tennessee, USA. We used two radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (STAGE4 and MRMS) as well as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to drive a series of models in the hierarchical framework, including the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, the Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) river routing model, and the AutoRoute and TRITON inundation models. An evaluation with observed high-water marks demonstrates that the framework can reasonably simulate flood inundation. Despite the complex error propagation mechanism of the modeling chain, we show that inundation estimates are most sensitive to rainfall estimates. Most notably, QPF significantly underestimates flood magnitudes and inundations leading to unanticipated severe flooding for all stakeholders involved in the event. Finally, we discuss the implications of the hydrodynamic modeling framework for real-time flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dr. Cecil Lubitz (1925–2021)

Dr. Cecil Lubitz passed away on March 5, 2021 at his home in upstate New York. A graduate of the Class of 1945 from the Naval Academy, Cecil served in the US Navy until 1947 after which he earned a MS in electrical engineering (1949) and a PhD in Physics (1960) from the University of Michigan. Following graduate school, Cecil came to work at Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory (KAPL) on applied nuclear physics in the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program (NNPP). Cecil worked at KAPL for 54 years and had an impactful career with many substantial contributions to the NNPP, national and global nuclear data communities.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment of Current (2021) and Future (2035) Technologies

This study presents a cradle-to-grave lifecycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for U.S. medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across current (2021) and future (2035) technologies using the Greenhouse gas, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model with industry-vetted assumptions. Results vary across vehicle classes but point to common trends: today, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer significant (10–60%) GHG emissions reduction compared to diesel internal combustion engine vehicles and are the lowest emissions option per ton-mile of cargo movement, followed by hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) (5–50% emissions reduction). Emissions savings depend largely on the duty cycle and fuel economy of the vehicle type. Future vehicle technology advancements result in comparable emission reductions associated with BEVs and hydrogen FCEVs. Weight-limited BEV trucks see less per-ton-mile emissions reduction due to the impact of battery weight on increased vehicle weight and reduced payload capacity. By 2035, improvements in vehicle efficiency can reduce emissions across all powertrains. However, very low levels of emissions require switching vehicles’ use-phase fuel/energy to low-carbon fuels and electricity. Renewable diesel, e-fuels, hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage or renewables, and use of low-carbon electricity can all achieve over 70% reduction in GHG emissions from the current day diesel-based internal combustion engine vehicle.

alternative fuels↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme Water Vapor Transport During the March 2021 Sydney Floods in the Context of Climate Projections

During March 2021, large regions of Eastern Australia experienced prolonged heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The maximum daily mean column integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over Sydney during this event was within the top 0.3% of all days since 1980, and the 10-day mean IVT was in the top 0.2%. Here, in this study, we have examined the change in frequency of extreme IVT events over Sydney in 16 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Generalized Extreme Value modeling was used to further analyze the change in frequency of extreme IVT events. We found the probability of long duration high IVT events is projected to increase by 80% at the end of the century, but the future change in IVT is correlated to the rate of global and regional warming in each model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming

Subseasonal weather prediction can reduce economic disruption and loss of life, especially during “windows of opportunity” when noteworthy events in the Earth system are followed by characteristic weather patterns. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, are one such event. They often precede warm temperatures in Northern Canada and cold, stormy weather throughout Europe and the United States - including the most recent SSW on January 5th, 2021. Here we assess the drivers of surface weather in the weeks following the SSW through initial condition “scrambling” experiments using the real-time CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system prediction framework. We find that the SSW itself had a limited impact, and that stratospheric polar vortex stretching and wave reflection had no discernible contribution to the record cold in North America in February. Instead, the tropospheric circulation and bidirectional coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere were dominant contributors to variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing jet base emission of M87* with the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations

We investigate the presence and spatial characteristics of the jet base emission in M87* at 230 GHz, enabled by the significantly enhanced (u,v) coverage in the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The integration of the 12−m Kitt Peak Telescope (USA) and NOEMA (France) stations into the array introduces two critical intermediate-length baselines to SMT (USA) and IRAM 30−m (Spain), providing sensitivity to emission structures at spatial scales of ∼250 μas and ∼2500 μas (∼ 0.02 pc and ∼ 0.02 pc). Without these new baselines, previous EHT observations of the source in 2017 and 2018 lacked the capability to constrain emission on large scales, where a “missing flux” of order ∼1 Jy is expected to reside. To probe these scales, we analyzed closure phases–robust against station-based gain calibration errors–and model the jet base emission using a simple Gaussian component offset from the compact ring emission at spatial separations > 100 μas. Our analysis revealed a Gaussian feature centered at (ΔRA ≈ 320 μ as, ΔDec. ≈ 60 μ as), projected separation of ≈ 5500 AU, with an estimated flux density of only ∼60 mJy, implying that most of the missing flux identified in previous EHT studies had to originate from different, larger scales. Brighter emission at the relevant spatial scales is firmly ruled out, and the data do not favor more complex models. This component aligns with the inferred position of the large-scale jet and is therefore physically consistent with the emission of the jet base. While our findings point to detectable jet base emission at 230 GHz, the limited coverage provided by only two intermediate baselines limits our ability to robustly reconstruct its morphology. Consequently, we treated the recovered Gaussian as an upper limit on the jet base flux density. Future EHT observations with expanded intermediate baseline coverage will be essential to constrain the structure and nature of this component with higher precision.

accretion, accretion disks↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computing within the 2021 Snowmass process

We present different elements of the 2021–2022 Computational Frontier (CompF) effort within the Snowmass process, including organization, events, and highlights of the final report. With focus in the next 10–15 years, we analyze the impact of newly established and emerging technologies, identify challenges within theoretical, experimental and observational research programs, and present the report recommendations. We emphasize the main recommendation, which is the formation of a Coordinating Panel for Software and Computing (CPSC).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Erratum: “Initial characterization of electron temperature and density profiles in PEGASUS spherical tokamak discharges driven solely by local helicity injection” [Phys. Plasmas 28, 102504 (2021)]

Here, this article describes errata in 'Initial characterization of electron temperature and density profiles in PEGASUS spherical tokamak discharges driven solely by local helicity injection,' Phys. Plasmas 28, 102504 (2021) that correct reported electron temperature values and their implications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of atmospheric resonance and land–atmosphere feedbacks as a precursor to the June 2021 Pacific Northwest Heat Dome event

We demonstrate an indirect, rather than direct, role of quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves in a summer weather extreme. We find that there was an interplay between a persistent, amplified large-scale atmospheric circulation state and soil moisture feedbacks as a precursor for the June 2021 Pacific Northwest “Heat Dome” event. An extended resonant planetary wave configuration prior to the event created an antecedent soil moisture deficit that amplified lower atmospheric warming through strong nonlinear soil moisture feedbacks, favoring this unprecedented heat event.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prevalence of erythromycin-resistant emm92 -type invasive group A streptococcal infections among injection drug users in West Virginia, United States, 2021–23

Abstract Background Increasing incidence of invasive group A Streptococcus (iGAS) disease has been reported in Europe and the USA over the past several years. Coupled with this are observations of higher rates of resistance to erythromycin and clindamycin. Objectives To characterize iGAS and pharyngitis isolates from West Virginia (WV), a US state outside of the national Active Bacteria Core surveillance purview, where risk factors associated with iGAS infections are prevalent. Methods Seventy-seven invasive group A Streptococcus isolates were collected from 67 unique patients at the J.W. Ruby Memorial Hospital Clinical Microbiology Laboratory in WV from 2021 to 2023. Invasive isolates and 20 unique pharyngitis isolates were tested for clindamycin and erythromycin susceptibility in the clinical laboratory. Patient demographic and clinical information was retrieved from patient electronic health records. Isolates were further characterized based on emm subtype and detection of MLSB resistance determinants. Results Twenty-six (39%) isolates were of a single emm92 type. All emm92 isolates were uniformly erythromycin/clindamycin resistant with inducible or constitutive MLSB resistance imparted by the plasmid-borne erm(T) gene. The majority of emm92 infections were associated with adult patients who reported IV drug use, whereas no pharyngitis infections were caused by an emm92 strain. Overall, 51 (76%) of the 67 iGAS isolates were determined to carry MLSB resistance. Conclusions Isolates of emm92 type (clonal subtype emm92.0) were associated with iGAS infections in adult IV drug users, but not with paediatric pharyngitis, and were uniformly resistant to erythromycin and clindamycin.

Powell, Lillie M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Maximum Allowable Working Pressure and Svensson Burst Pressure Recommended in API 579-1 2021 Edition

Abstract API 579-1/ASME FFS-1 2021 Edition provides the minimum wall thickness, the maximum allowable working pressure (MAWP), and the membrane stress equations for thin and thick-walled cylindrical shells subject to internal pressure in Section 2C.3.3.1 of Appendix 2C – Thickness, MAWP, and Stress Equations for an FFS Assessment. The minimum wall thickness and MAWP are determined using the hoop stress and the Tresca yield criterion. Section 2C.7 – Estimation of Burst Pressure newly added the Svensson method for calculating burst pressure of cylindrical shells under internal pressure, where the plastic yielding is characterized by the von Mises yield criterion. For thin-walled cylinders, the von Mises flow solution of burst pressure in Equation (2C.179) was recommended. For thick-walled cylinders, an implicit burst pressure solution in an integral equation (2C.176) was recommended. But this integral equation is inconvenient to use in practice. It is well known that the classic plasticity theory includes the Tresca and von Mises yield criteria, with the Tresca criterion predicting a lower bound solution and the von Mises criteria predicting an upper bound solution. In addition, the present author developed an average shear stress yield criterion that can determine more accurate limit and burst pressures for thin and thick-walled cylinders. This work uses these three yield criteria to evaluate the minimum required wall thickness, MAWP and Svensson burst pressure recommended in the API 579 code.

burst pressure↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of vaccination on the case fatality rate for COVID-19 infections 2020–2021: multivariate modelling of data from the US Department of Veterans Affairs

Objectives: To evaluate the benefits of vaccination on the case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 infections. Design, setting and participants: The US Department of Veterans Affairs has 130 medical centres. We created multivariate models from these data—339 772 patients with COVID-19—as of 30 September 2021. Outcome measures: The primary outcome for all models was death within 60 days of the diagnosis. Logistic regression was used to derive adjusted ORs for vaccination and infection with Delta versus earlier variants. Models were adjusted for confounding factors, including demographics, comorbidity indices and novel parameters representing prior diagnoses, vital signs/baseline laboratory tests and outpatient treatments. Patients with a Delta infection were divided into eight cohorts based on the time from vaccination to diagnosis. A common model was used to estimate the odds of death associated with vaccination for each cohort relative to that of unvaccinated patients. Results: 9.1% of subjects were vaccinated. 21.5% had the Delta variant. 18 120 patients (5.33%) died within 60 days of their diagnoses. The adjusted OR for a Delta infection was 1.87±0.05, which corresponds to a relative risk (RR) of 1.78. The overall adjusted OR for prior vaccination was 0.280±0.011 corresponding to an RR of 0.291. Raw CFR rose steadily after 10–14 weeks. The OR for vaccination remained stable for 10–34 weeks. Conclusions: Our CFR model controls for the severity of confounding factors and priority of vaccination, rather than solely using the presence of comorbidities. Our results confirm that Delta was more lethal than earlier variants and that vaccination is an effective means of preventing death. After adjusting for major selection biases, we found no evidence that the benefits of vaccination on CFR declined over 34 weeks. We suggest that this model can be used to evaluate vaccines designed for emerging variants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Rise of US Photovoltaics: An Exploration of Land Use Density Trends in Large‐Scale Solar Facility Attributes, 2012–2021

An energy transition is underway in the United States; renewable energy generation is now on par with coal and nuclear generation. The number of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities increased approximately tenfold between 2012 and 2021, with an associated 25-fold increase in cumulative installed capacity. With ambitious decarbonization and renewable energy deployment goals at both the federal and state levels, deployments of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities will continue apace. This growth is likely to be complex with ripples of impacts felt throughout different aspects of society, and thus accurate solar land use metrics allowing more accurate predictions are of value to policymakers, planners, and other stakeholders in the future photovoltaic build-out. In this paper, we leverage data from the newly released US Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Database to examine recent trends in large-scale solar photovoltaic land use. We analyze the relationships between solar array capacity density (W/acre) and a range of facility attributes to better understand the future land requirements of solar capacity expansion over the coming years. Installed capacity was the single strongest determinant of solar array area. However, we found substantial variation in capacity density across facility attributes, including mount type, latitude, urbanicity, time, and prior land use.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗