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NASA NTRS1994

Meteorological observations of synoptic disturbances: Sensitivity to latitude

The Mars pathfinder MET experiment will make pressure, temperature, and wind measurements on the surface of Mars. The Viking Lander Meteorology Experiment measurements were marked by the presence of variations associated with synoptic weather disturbances throughout the fall and winter season. Numerical simulations of the Mars atmospheric circulation show that the winter midlatitudes are the center of activity for traveling disturbances of planetary scale, disturbances that have their fundamental origin in the baroclinic instability of the wintertime Mars atmospheric circulation. The studies are consistent with Viking observations in that the disturbances decay in amplitude toward lower latitudes. The further north the Mars Pathfinder is located, the more clearly it will be able to detect the signatures of the midlatitude weather system. A landing site close to 15 deg N should allow measurement of the weather disturbances, along with observations of the thermal tides, slope winds, and the relatively steady winds associated with the general circulation - the 'trade winds' of Mars. A landing site near 15 deg N would be significantly further equatorward than the Viking Lander 1 site, and thus would provide more of a view of tropical circulation processes.

Barnes, Jeff R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Assessment of climate variability of the Greenland ice sheet: Integration of in situ and satellite data

The proposed research involves the application of multispectral satellite data in combination with ground truth measurements to monitor surface properties of the Greenland ice sheet which are essential for describing the energy and mass of the ice sheet. Several key components of the energy balance are parameterized using satellite data and in situ measurements. The analysis will be done for a ten year time period in order to get statistics on the seasonal and interannual variations of the surface processes and the climatology. Our goal is to investigate to what accuracy and over what geographic areas large scale snow properties and radiative fluxes can be derived based upon a combination of available remote sensing and meterological data sets. Data analysis showed the following results: (1)cloud classification based on longwave sky radiation revealed that overcast sky occurred for 25% of the time in winter, and for 15% in spring and summer respectively (winter and summer both show the same occurrence of clear sky of approximately 26%); (2) comparison of aerodynamic profile method with eddy correlation method to derive sensible and latent heat flux showed good agreement in the diurnal cycle and the turbulent fluxes were underestimated with the aerodynamic method by 10 - 30% as compared to the in situ eddy flux method; (3) the katabatic wind shows a distinct diurnal cycle with a maximum in the morning (7-9 h solar time) and a minimum in the later afternoon (18 h solar time); (4) snow grain size was modeled with a surface energy balance model (SNTHERM) and compared with in situ measurements. Sharp decreases in the modeled snow grain size, caused by accumulation events such as precipitation and deposition, could be verified with observational data; (4) radiative transfer modeling of firn supports our beliefs that the observed trends in 18 and 19 GHz passive microwave brightness temperatures are attributable to accumulation rate changes (modeling also indicates the above relationship is detectable because of the presence of depth hoar; (5) snow melt can be detected by a distinct signal in the passive microwave cross-polarized gradient ratio (19h-37v)/(19h+37v) and has been used for wet/dry snow classification; (6) top of the atmosphere (TOA) broadband albedos were derived from AVHRR visible and near infrared reflectances for the entire ice sheet from May 1990 - June 1991, and the highest albedo values are found along the southeast coast of the ice sheet which is consistent with the summer peak of precipitation due to onshore flow loaded with high water vapor content (TOA albedo values dropped to around 40% along the south-western coast during July and August due to bare ice surfaces); and (7) the net all-wave radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere is negative over the entire ice sheet except for the summer months - June-July-August (in June, the net radiation balance is slightly positive over the dry snow areas--15 W/m2).

Steffen, K.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Seasonal trend analysis of published ground-based and TOMS total ozone data through 1991

A seasonal trend analysis of published Dobson (including stations' newly revised and Brewer-simulated Dobson) total ozone data through 1991 from a network of 56 stations has been performed, using three different data periods. The trend results for the longest data period 1964 - 1991 indicate substantial negative trends in ozone in the higher northern latitudes during the winter and spring seasons, some evidence of negative trend in the higher southern latitudes (30 deg S - 55 deg S) during all seasons, and trends close to zero for all seasons over the 30 deg S - 30 deg N latitude range. For the shortest data period, November 1978 through 1991, there is a clear indication that trends have become more negative in the higher northern latitudes, especially during the winter and spring seasons, and also in the higher southern latitudes in all seasons. A seasonal trend analysis of zonal averages of total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) satellite total ozone data for the comparable period November 1978 through 1991 has also been performed, and moderately good agreement is found between trends in Dobson and TOMS data over this period.

Reinsel, Gregory C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of the seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton pigment concentrations in the Peru and California Current systems

Monthly composite images from the global coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) data set are used to provide an initial illustration and comparison of seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton pigment concentration along the western coasts of South and North America in the Peru Current system (PCS) and California Current system (CCS). The analysis utilizes the entire time series of available data (November 1978 to June 1986) to form a mean annual cycle and an index of interannual variability for a series of both latitudinal and cross-shelf regions within each current system. Within 100 km of the coast, the strongest seasonal cycles in the CCS are in two regions, one between 34 deg and 45 deg N and the second between 24 deg and 29 deg N, each with maximum concentrations (greater than 3.0 mg m(exp-3)) in May-June. Weaker seasonal variability is present north of 45 deg N and in the Southern California Bight region (32 deg N). Within the PCS, in the same 100-km-wide coastal region, highest (greater than 45 deg S) and lowest (less than 20 deg S) latitude regions have a similar seasonal cycle with maximum concentrations (greater than 1.5 mg m(exp -3)) during the austral spring, summer, and fall, matching that evident throughout the CCS. Between these regions, off northern and central Chile, the seasonal maximum occurs during July-August (austral winter), contrary to the influence of upwelling favorable winds. Within the CCS, the dominant feature of interannual variability in the 8-year time series is a strong negative concentration anomaly in 1983, an El Nino year. The relative value of this negative anomaly is strongest off central California and is followed by an even stronger negative anomaly is strongest off central California and is followed by an even stronger negative anomaly in 1984 off Baja, California. In the PCS, strong negative anomalies during the 1982-1983 El Nino period are evident only off the Peruvian coast and are evident there only in the regions 100 km or more from the coast. Although negative anomalies associated with the El Nino were not present at higher latitudes (more than approximately 20 deg S) in the PCS, the extremely sparse sampling weakens our confidence in the results of the interannual analysis in this region. An upper estimate of the systematic winter bias remaining in the global CZCS data after reprocessing with the multiple scattering algorithm is given in the appendix.

Thomas, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Southern hemisphere low level wind circulation statistics from the Seasat scatterometer

Analyses of remotely sensed low-level wind vector data over the Southern Ocean are performed. Five-day averages and monthly means are created and the month-to-month variability during the winter (July-September) of 1978 is investigated. The remotely sensed winds are compared to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) and the National Meteorological Center (NMC) surface analyses. In southern latitudes the remotely sensed winds are stronger than what the weather services' analyses suggest, indicating under-estimation by ABM and NMC in these regions. The evolution of the low-level jet and the major stormtracks during the season are studied and different flow regimes are identified. The large-scale variability of the meridional flow is studied with the aid of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The dominance of quasi-stationary wave numbers 3,4, and 5 in the winter flows is evident in both the EOF analysis and the mean flow. The signature of an exceptionally strong blocking situation is evident in July and the special conditions leading to it are discussed. A very large intraseasonal variability with different flow regimes at different months is documented.

Levy, Gad↗
NASA NTRS1994

Evolution of the 1991-1992 Arctic vortex and comparison with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory SKYHI general circulation model

Nitrous oxide (N2O) measured on board the ER-2 aircraft during the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition 2 (AASE 2) has been used to monitor descent of air inside the Arctic vortex between October 1991 and March 1992. Monthly mean N2O fields are calculated from the flight data and then compared with mean fields calculated from the high-resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model SKYHI in order to evaluate the model's simulation of the polar vortex. From late fall through winter the model vortex evolves in much the same way as the 1991-1992 vortex, with N2O gradients at the edge becoming progressively steeper. The October to March trends in N2O profiles inside the vortex are used to verify daily net heating rates in the vortex that were computed from clear sky radiative heating rates and National Meteorological Center temperature observations. The computed heating rates successfully estimate the descent of vortex air from December through February but suggest that before December, air at high latitudes may not be isolated from the midlatitudes. SKYHI heating rates are in good agreement with the computed rates but tend to be slightly higher (i.e., less cooling) due to meteorological differences between SKYHI and the 1991-1992 winter. Three ER-2 flights measured N2O just north of the subtropical jet. These low-midlatitude profiles show only slight differences from the high-midlatitude profiles (45 deg - 60 deg N), indicating strong meridional mixing in the midlatitude 'surf zone.' Mean midwinter N2O profiles inside and outside the vortex calculated from AASE 2 data are shown to be nearly identical to 1989 AASE profiles, pointing to the N2O/potential temperature relationship as an excellent marker for vortex air.

Strahan, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Analysis of ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar data of frozen lakes in northern Montana and implications for climate studies

Lakes that freeze each winter are good indicators of regional climate change if key parameters, such as freeze-up and breakup date and maximum ice thickness, are measured over a decade-scale time frame. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data have proven to be especially useful for measurement of climatologically significant parameters characteristic of frozen lakes. In this paper, five lakes in Glacier National Park, Montana, have been studied both in the field and using Earth Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS) 1 SAR data during the 1992-1993 winter. The lakes are characterized by clear ice, sometimes with tubular or rounded bubbles, and often with a layer of snow ice on top of the clear ice. They are also often snow covered. Freeze-up is detected quite easily using ERS 1 SAR data as soon as a thin layer of ice forms. The effect of snow ice on the backscatter is thought to be significant but is, as yet, undetermined. On the five lakes studied, relative backscatter was found to increase with ice thickness until a maximum was reached in February. Breakup, an often ill-defined occurrence, is difficult to detect because surface water causes the SAR signal to be absorbed, thus masking the ice below. Comparison of the bubble structure of thaw lakes in northern Alaska with lakes in northern Montana has shown that the ice structure is quite different, and this difference may contribute to differential SAR signature evolution in the lakes of the two areas.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Global ozone observations from the UARS MLS: An overview of zonal-mean results

Global ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) are presented, in both vertically resolved and column abundance formats. The authors review the zonal-mean ozone variations measured over the two and a half years since launch in September 1991. Well-known features such as the annual and semiannual variations are ubiquitous. In the equatorial regions, longer-term changes are believed to be related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), with a strong semiannual signal above 20 hPa. Ozone values near 50 hPa exhibit an equatorial low from October 1991 to June 1992, after which the low ozone pattern splits into two subtropical lows (possibly in connection with residual circulation changes tied to the QBO) and returns to an equatorial low in September 1993. The ozone hole development at high southern latitudes is apparent in MLS column data integrated down to 100 hPa, the MLS data reinforce current knowledge of this lower-stratospheric phenomenon by providing a height-dependent view of the variations. The region from 30 deg S to 30 deg N (an area equal to half the global area) shows very little change in the ozone column from year to year and within each year. The most striking ozone changes have occurred at northern midlatitudes, with the October 1992 to July 1993 column values significantly lower than during the prior year. The zonal-mean changes manifest themselves as a slower rate of increase during the 1992/93 winter, and there is some evidence for a lower fall minimum. A recovery occurs during late summer of 1993; early 1994 values are significantly larger than during the two previous winters. The timing and latitudinal extent of the northern midlatitude decreases appear to rule out observed ClO enhancements in the Arctic vortex, with related chemical processing and ozone dilution effects, as a unique cause. Local depletion from ClO-related chemical mechanisms alone is also not sufficient, based on MLS ClO data. The puzzling asymmetric nature of the changes probably requires a dynamical component as an explanation. A combination of effects (including chemical destruction via heterogeneous processes and QBO phasing) apparently needs to be invoked. This dataset will place constraints on future modeling studies, which are required to better understand the source of the observed changes.

Froidevaux, Lucien↗
NASA NTRS1994

Three-dimensional evolution of water vapor distributions in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere as observed by the MLS

The three-dimensional evolution of stratospheric water vapor distributions observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) during the period October 1991 - July 1992 is documented. The transport features inferred from the MLS water vapor distributions are corroborated using other dynamical fields, namely, nitrous oxide from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer instrument, analyzed winds from the U.K. Meteorological Office (UKMO), UKMO-derived potential vorticity, and the diabatic heating field. By taking a vortex-centered view and an along-track view, the authors observe in great detail the vertical and horizontal structure of the northern winter stratosphere. It is demonstrated that the water vapor distributions show clear signatures of the effects of diabatic descent through isentropic surfaces and quasi-horizontal transport along isentropic surfaces, and that the large-scale winter flow is organized by the interaction between the westerly polar vortex and the Aleutian high.

Lahoz, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Radar measurements of melt zones on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Surface-based microwave radar measurements were performed at a location on the western flank of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Here, firn metamorphasis is dominated by seasonal melt, which leads to marked contrasts in the vertical structure of winter and summer firn. This snow regime is also one of the brightest radar targets on Earth with an average backscatter coefficient of 0 dB at 5.3 GHz and an incidence angle of 25 deg. By combining detailed observations of firn physical properties with ranging radar measurements we find that the glaciological mechanism associated with this strong electromagnetic response is summer ice lens formation within the previous winter's snow pack. This observation has important implications for monitoring and understanding changes in ice sheet volume using spaceborne microwave sensors.

Jezek, Kenneth C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Ozone loss in the lower stratosphere over the United States in 1992-1993: Evidence for heterogeneous chemistry on the Pinatubo aerosol

Ozone profiles obtained at Boulder, Colorado and Wallops Island, Virginia indicate that ozone was about 25% below normal during the winter and spring of 1992-93 in the 12-22 km region. This large ozone reduction in the lower stratosphere, though sometimes partially compensated by higher than normal ozone above 24 km, was responsible for the low total column ozone values observed across the United States during this period. Normal temperatures throughout the low ozone region suggest that transport-related effects are probably not the most important cause of the ozone deficits. This region of low ozone at Boulder corresponds closely with the location of the enhanced H2SO4/H2O aerosol from the Pinatubo eruption of 1991 as measured near Boulder and at Laramie, Wyoming. Trajectory analyses suggest that except at low altitudes in spring, air parcels on the days of the ozone measurements generally arrived at Boulder from higher latitude, although seldom higher than 60 deg N, and hence may have been subjected to heterogeneous chemical processing on the surface of Pinatubo aerosol droplets resulting in chlorine-catalyzed ozone destruction, a process which is believed to be more effective under the lower winter temperatures and sunlight levels of higher latitudes.

Hofmann, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Seasonal variation of surface and atmospheric cloud radiative forcing over the globe derived from satellite data

Global distributions of surface and atmospheric cloud radiative forcing parameters have been derived using parameterized radiation models with satellite meteorological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, and directly measured top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Specifically, shortwave, longwave, and total cloud forcing at the surface, and column-averaged values of longwave cloud forcing of the atmosphere were derived for the midseasonal months of April, July, and October 1985 and January 1986, covering a complete annual cycle. Seasonal variability is illustrated by comparing the results for July 1985 and January 1986, which represent the seasonal extremes. Surface shortwave cloud forcing is always negative, representing a cooling of the surface, with strongest cooling (-120 to -180 W/sq m) occurring over midlatitude storm tracks of the summer hemisphere. Surface longwave cloud forcing is always positive, representing a warming of the surface, with strongest warming (60 to 75 W/sq m) occurring over storm tracks of the winter hemisphere. Zonal averages show the entire summer hemisphere dominated by shortwave cooling, the middle and high latitudes of the winter hemisphere dominated by longwave warming, and a broad zone of transition in between. The globally averaged total cloud forcing amounts to a cooling throughout the year, ranging from a low of about -12 W/sq m for July 1985 to a high of about -25 W/sq m for January 1986. The longwave cloud forcing of the atmosphere shows a strong warming over deep convective regions in the tropics and a moderate cooling outside the tropics, amounting to a weak cooling (-2 to -5 W/sq m) in the global average. Comparisons of the results with general circulation model simulations show broad qualitative agreement regarding the locations of prominent warming and cooling regions. Quantitative comparisons, on the other hand, show significant differences between the magnitudes of warming and cooling in these regions. Most of the larger differences can be attributed to known deficiences of the general circulation model simulations. Comparisons with satellite-derived results of other investigators show much better agreement.

Gupta, Shashi K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

New observations of the NOy/N2O correlation in the lower stratosphere

During the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition 2 (AASE 2), September 1991 through March 1992, in situ measurements of reactive nitrogen (NO(y) and N20 were made in the Northern Hemisphere lower stratosphere. We present an analysis of this new data and compare it with results from similar data taken during AASE in the winter of 1989. In the Northern Hemisphere there is consistent linear correlation of N2O and NO(y) which shows no interannual variation. Cases of departure from a linear correlation are examined and classified as being due to denitrification (NO(y) loss) or sampling air from a region where the photochemical lifetime of NO(y) is decreased. The latter case was observed for the first time in the winter of 1992.

Loewenstein, M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Evidence of seasonally dependent stratosphere-troposphere exchange and purging of lower stratospheric aerosol from a multiyear lidar data set

Tropospheric and lower stratospheric aerosol backscatter data obtained from a calibrated backscatter lidar at Pasadena, California (34 deg N latitude) over the 1984-1993 period clearly indicate tightly coupled aerosol optical properties in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the winter and early spring, due to the active midlatitude stratospheric-tropospheric (ST) exchange processes occurring at this time of year. Lidar data indicate that during pre-Pinaturbo background conditions, the subsequent purging of the aerosol in the upper troposphere caused a significant reduction in the aerosol content throughout the 8 - 18 km altitude region in the early spring period. The post-Pinatubo evidence of intense exchange in the winter and early spring is a significant increase in the upper tropospheric aerosol content, such that the backscatter levels reach values nearly equivalent to the enhanced backscatter levels existing in the lower stratosphere. The calculated stratospheric mass extrusion rate is consistent with a 45-day lifetime of lower stratospheric aerosol during this part of the year, which implies that midlatitude ST exchange is a significant sink for stratospheric aerosol.

Menzies, Robert T.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Monitoring Mars with the Hubble Space Telescope: 1990-1991 observations

Images of Mars obtained using the Planetary Camera on the Hubble Space Telescope during 1990 and 1991 are described and analyzed. Multispectral images of Mars record the martian season between L(sub s) = 348 deg and 60 deg corresponding to late winter and spring in the northern hemisphere. The wavelengths of these observations varied between 230 nm in the ultraviolet and 890 nm in the near infrared. We use these images to discuss atmospheric and polar phenomena, to constrain the aerosols and ozone in the martian atmosphere, and to compare surface albedo features within this data set as well as with previous observations. Two methods are used to constrain the opacity of the martian atmosphere: comparisons of ultraviolet images with atmospheric scattering models and examination of contrast changes of surface features observed at visible wavelengths. Our observations are consistent with a Mars which was quite different from the planet when it was viewed by Viking; we estimate an upper limit of 0.1 for equatorial dust opacity near vernal equinox, compared to values of 0.4 to 0.5 measured in Chryse by Viking Lander 1. Later, at L(sub s) = 60 deg, and upper limit of 0.2 was found for dust in the southern hemisphere. Except for suggestions of local dust activity near the north polar cap in late spring, there was no visual evidence of dust storms on the planet. The Hartley band of ozone is within the F230W filter bandpass, and the 230W/336W ratio is therefore sensitive to ozone. High latitude ozone is observed at a concentration similar to that observed by Mariner 9; a seasonal dependence in ozone concentration was observed with concentration decreasing at northern arctic latitudes and increasing at southern midlatitudes as L(sub s) increases from 350 deg to 60 deg. Despite the difference in dust loading, the behavior of condensate clouds and the recession of the north polar cap are consistent with those observed during Viking years. Late winter images of the north polar region reveal an active north polar hood with a maximum (UV) opacity of about 0.25 near 50 deg latitude; the hood seems to have an annular form, with the central, polar regions having smaller opacity. Clouds observed in the northern hemisphere to the south of the hood boundary are suggestive of fronts similar to those observed during the Mariner 9 mission. A diurnal variation in the hood clouds which is (anti) correlated with the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is noted. Images were deconvolved using the Richardson-Lucy iterative algorithm to remove the defocussing effects of the spherical aberration of the HST primary. Even when Mars subtended less than 5 arcsec, in May 1991, the images were scientifically useful and comparable to photographic images obtained at opposition. Although the data are subject to the solar pointing constraint for HST, the relatively slow movement of the allowed observation window, which is more than one half martian year, with respect to the martian seasons will permit us to address the question of major variations in the martian atmosphere.

James, Philip B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A new numerical model of the middle atmosphere. 2: Ozone and related species

A new two-dimensional model with detailed photochemistry is presented. The model includes descriptions of planetary wave and gravity wave propagation and dissipation to characterize the wave forcing and associated mixing in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Such a representation allows for explicit calculation of the regions of strong mixing in the middle atmosphere required for accurate simulation of trace gas transport. The new model also includes a detailed description of photochemical processes in the stratosphere and mesosphere. The downward transport of H2, H2O, and NO(y) from the mesosphere to the stratosphere is examined, and it is shown that mesospheric processes can influence the distributions of these chemical species in polar regions. For HNO3 we also find that small concentrations of liquid aerosols above 30 km could play a major role in determining the abundance in polar winter at high latitudes. The model is also used to examine the chemical budget of ozone in the midlatitude stratosphere and to set constraints on the effectiveness of bromine relative to chlorine for ozone loss and the role of the HO2 + BrO reaction. Recent laboratory data used in this modeling study suggest that this process greatly enhances the effectiveness of bromine for ozone destruction, making bromine-catalyzed chemistry second only to HO(x)-catalyzed ozone destruction in the contemporary stratosphere at midlatitudes below about 18 km. The calculated vertical distribution of ozone in the lower stratosphere agrees well with observations, as does the total column ozone during most seasons and latitudes, with the important exception of southern hemisphere winter and spring.

Garcia, Rolando R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Polar stratospheric cloud climatology based on Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement II observations from 1978 to 1989

The probability of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) occurrence in the Antarctic and Arctic has been estimated using Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) II aerosol extinction data from 1978 to 1989. Antarctic PSCs are typically observed by SAM II from mid-May to early November, with a maximum zonal average probability of about 0.6 at 18-20 km in August. The typical Arctic PSC season extends only from late November to early March, with a peak zonal average probability of about 0.1 in early February at 20-22 km. There is considerable year-to-year variability in Arctic PSC sightings because of changes in the dynamics of the northern polar vortex. Year-to-year variability in Antarctic sightings is most prominent in the number of late season clouds. Maximum PSC sighting probabilities in both polar regions occur in the region from 90 deg W through the Greenwich meridian to 90 deg E, where temperatures are coldest on average. Arctic sighting probabilities approach zero outside this region, but clouds have been sighted in the Antarctic at all longitudes during most months. Inferred PSC formation temperatures remain constant throughout the Arctic winter and are similar to those in early Antarctic winter. PSC formation temperatures in the Antarctic drop markedly in the 15 to 20-km region by September, a pattern consistent with the irreversible loss of HNO3 and H2O vapor in sedimenting PSC particles.

Poole, Lamont R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Climatic implications of the seasonal variation of upper troposphere water vapor

Satellite observations indicate that the humidity of the upper troposphere is higher in summer than in winter. We use general circulation model (GCM) simulations to explore the processes that maintain upper troposphere water vapor and determine its seasonal cycle. In the subtropics, drying by Hadley cell subsidence and stratiform condensation is offset primarily by moistening by eddies, with moist convection playing a minor role. Elsewhere, both mean meridional circulation and eddies moisten the upper troposphere and are balanced primarily by stratiform condensation drying. The effect of the seasonal shift of the Hadley cell is limited to latitudes equatorward of 30 deg. At higher latitudes where the largest observed summer moistening occurs, eddy moisture fluxes are primarily responsible despite the eddies being weaker in summer than winter. The same mechanism causes upper level humidity to increase in GCM climate warming simulations. The observed seasonal variation may thus be a good proxy for decadal climate change. This suggests that upper troposphere water vapor feedback is positive at all latitudes, consistent with GCM predictions.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗