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At least 1,603 records · Page 89

Squeeze film dampers with oil hole feed

To improve the damping capability of squeeze film dampers, oil hole feed rather than circumferential groove feed is a practical proposition. However, circular orbit response can no longer be assumed, significantly complicating the design analysis. This paper details a feasible transient solution procedure for such dampers, with particular emphasis on the additional difficulties due to the introduction of oil holes. It is shown how a cosine power series solution may be utilized to evaluate the oil hole pressure contributions, enabling appropriate tabular data to be compiled. The solution procedure is shown to be applicable even in the presence of flow restrictors, albeit at the expense of introducing an iteration at each time step. Though not of primary interest, the procedure is also applicable to dynamically loaded journal bearings with oil hole feed.

Chen, P. Y. P.↗

Implications of Version 8 TOMS and SBUV Data for Long-Term Trend Analysis

Total ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and profile/total ozone data from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV; SBW/2) series of instruments have recently been reprocessed using new retrieval algorithms (referred to as Version 8 for both) and updated calibrations. In this paper, we incorporate the Version 8 data into a TOMS/SBW merged total ozone data set and an S B W merged profile ozone data set. The Total Merged Ozone Data (Total MOD) combines data from multiple TOMS and SBW instruments to form an internally consistent global data set with virtually complete time coverage from October 1978 through December 2003. Calibration differences between instruments are accounted for using external adjustments based on instrument intercomparisons during overlap periods. Previous results showed errors due to aerosol loading and sea glint are significantly reduced in the V8 TOMS retrievals. Using SBW as a transfer standard, calibration differences between V8 Nimbus 7 and Earth Probe TOMS data are approx. 1.3%, suggesting small errors in calibration remain. We will present updated total ozone long-term trends based on the Version 8 data. The Profile Merged Ozone Data (Profile MOD) data set is constructed using data from the SBUV series of instruments. In previous versions, SAGE data were used to establish the long-term external calibration of the combined data set. The SBW Version 8 we assess the V8 profile data through comparisons with SAGE and between SBW instruments in overlap periods. We then construct a consistently-calibrated long term time series. Updated zonal mean trends as a function of altitude and season from the new profile data set will be shown, and uncertainties in determining the best long-term calibration will be discussed.

Frith, Stacey M.↗

Improvements to the Ionizing Radiation Risk Assessment Program for NASA Astronauts

To perform dosimetry and risk assessment, NASA collects astronaut ionizing radiation exposure data from space flight, medical imaging and therapy, aviation training activities and prior occupational exposure histories. Career risk of exposure induced death (REID) from radiation is limited to 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The Radiation Health Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is implementing a program to integrate the gathering, storage, analysis and reporting of astronaut ionizing radiation dose and risk data and records. This work has several motivations, including more efficient analyses and greater flexibility in testing and adopting new methods for evaluating risks. The foundation for these improvements is a set of software tools called the Astronaut Radiation Exposure Analysis System (AREAS). AREAS is a series of MATLAB(Registered TradeMark)-based dose and risk analysis modules that interface with an enterprise level SQL Server database by means of a secure web service. It communicates with other JSC medical and space weather databases to maintain data integrity and consistency across systems. AREAS is part of a larger NASA Space Medicine effort, the Mission Medical Integration Strategy, with the goal of collecting accurate, high-quality and detailed astronaut health data, and then securely, timely and reliably presenting it to medical support personnel. The modular approach to the AREAS design accommodates past, current, and future sources of data from active and passive detectors, space radiation transport algorithms, computational phantoms and cancer risk models. Revisions of the cancer risk model, new radiation detection equipment and improved anthropomorphic computational phantoms can be incorporated. Notable hardware updates include the Radiation Environment Monitor (which uses Medipix technology to report real-time, on-board dosimetry measurements), an updated Tissue-Equivalent Proportional Counter, and the Southwest Research Institute Radiation Assessment Detector. Also, the University of Florida hybrid phantoms, which are flexible in morphometry and positioning, are being explored as alternatives to the current NASA computational phantoms.

Semones, E. J.↗

Post-Fragmentation Whole Genome Amplification-Based Method

This innovation is derived from a proprietary amplification scheme that is based upon random fragmentation of the genome into a series of short, overlapping templates. The resulting shorter DNA strands (<400 bp) constitute a library of DNA fragments with defined 3 and 5 termini. Specific primers to these termini are then used to isothermally amplify this library into potentially unlimited quantities that can be used immediately for multiple downstream applications including gel eletrophoresis, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR), comparative genomic hybridization microarray, SNP analysis, and sequencing. The standard reaction can be performed with minimal hands-on time, and can produce amplified DNA in as little as three hours. Post-fragmentation whole genome amplification-based technology provides a robust and accurate method of amplifying femtogram levels of starting material into microgram yields with no detectable allele bias. The amplified DNA also facilitates the preservation of samples (spacecraft samples) by amplifying scarce amounts of template DNA into microgram concentrations in just a few hours. Based on further optimization of this technology, this could be a feasible technology to use in sample preservation for potential future sample return missions. The research and technology development described here can be pivotal in dealing with backward/forward biological contamination from planetary missions. Such efforts rely heavily on an increasing understanding of the burden and diversity of microorganisms present on spacecraft surfaces throughout assembly and testing. The development and implementation of these technologies could significantly improve the comprehensiveness and resolving power of spacecraft-associated microbial population censuses, and are important to the continued evolution and advancement of planetary protection capabilities. Current molecular procedures for assaying spacecraft-associated microbial burden and diversity have inherent sample loss issues at practically every step, particularly nucleic acid extraction. In engineering a molecular means of amplifying nucleic acids directly from single cells in their native state within the sample matrix, this innovation has circumvented entirely the need for DNA extraction regimes in the sample processing scheme.

Benardini, James↗

Gamma-Ray Imaging to Monitor Accumulating Holdup

Over time, nuclear materials can accumulate in process equipment and keeping track of such material is of interest to many stakeholder communities including safeguards, process monitoring, criticality safety, and radiological safety. Passive gamma-ray imaging provides a visual and quantitative tool that can be applied to this problem, allowing one to determine the amount of material present from the images. In this work we emulate the accumulation of highly enriched uranium (HEU) in a large rectangular stainless-steel duct by stacking 5, 27 × 50 cm2 cards, each of which has approximately 11 g of 235U in oxide form distributed across its surface, behind each other. A series of images were collected using a coded-aperture gamma-ray imager, starting with a single card, adding a second card, etc. Long integrations were collected to allow evaluating the performance of the approach as a function of integration time. The images are analyzed using first principles to determine the amount of material in each image. The results are compared to the known amount of material in each configuration, and as a function of time. The analysis includes a first-principles error propagation and to further evaluate the uncertainty, a boot-strap sampling approach is also applied to the data. The work offers a proof of concept for unattended monitoring of uranium holdup with a quantitative gamma-ray imaging technique.

Ziock, Klaus-Peter↗

Assessing mechanisms for microbial taxa and community dynamics using process models

Disentangling the assembly mechanisms controlling community composition, structure, distribution, functions, and dynamics is a central issue in ecology. Although various approaches have been proposed to examine community assembly mechanisms, quantitative characterization is challenging, particularly in microbial ecology. Here, we present a novel approach for quantitatively delineating community assembly mechanisms by combining the consumer–resource model with a neutral model in stochastic differential equations. Using time-series data from anaerobic bioreactors that target microbial 16S rRNA genes, we tested the applicability of three ecological models: the consumer–resource model, the neutral model, and the combined model. Our results revealed that model performances varied substantially as a function of population abundance and/or process conditions. The combined model performed best for abundant taxa in the treatment bioreactors where process conditions were manipulated. In contrast, the neutral model showed the best performance for rare taxa. Our analysis further indicated that immigration rates decreased with taxa abundance and competitions between taxa were strongly correlated with phylogeny, but within a certain phylogenetic distance only. The determinism underlying taxa and community dynamics were quantitatively assessed, showing greater determinism in the treatment bioreactors that aligned with the subsequent abnormal system functioning. Given its mechanistic basis, the framework developed here is expected to be potentially applicable beyond microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A solar energy desalination analysis tool, sedat, with data and models for selecting technologies and regions

Abstract There is interest for desalination technologies powered by solar energy as arid areas are typically bestowed with good solar potential. In response to a US DOE call for solar desalination analysis tools, we developed an open-source solar energy desalination analysis tool, sedat , for techno-economical evaluation of desalination technologies and selection of regions with the highest potential for using solar energy to power desalination plants. It is expected that this software will simplify the planning, design, and valuation of solar desalination systems in the U.S. and worldwide. Sedat uses Dash for integrating various layers of large volumes of GIS data with Python-based models of solar energy generation and desalination technologies. It derives time-series of energy generation and water production, with details of plant performance and suggestions for improving the solar-desalination coupling. This paper summarizes the various phases of the tool’s development, presents example results showing the potential, under multiple objectives, of solar desalination in parts of the U.S. southwest, and discusses method details that would be useful for future model development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Integrating Spatial and Ethnographic Methods for Resilience Research: A Thick Mapping Approach for Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria left unprecedented impacts on Puerto Rican communities, leaving some without infrastructure services and unable to communicate with family for several months. Here, to understand the forms of community-level resilience that emerged while hard infrastructure systems took time recover, this article (1) abductively explores resilience as an emergent phenomenon of complex adaptive systems; (2) identifies subsequent forms of social capital, local adaptive capacities, and manifestations of quantifiable variables, such as infrastructure performance, in community experiences; and (3) demonstrates a framework to integrate disparate methodologies for resilience assessments via a multiplicity of mappings of space and place. We combine ethnographic and geospatial methods into an interactive GeoApp for analysis using participant-coded narratives and a series of geospatial indicators as a thick map. Thick mapping facilitates quantitative and qualitative data analysis at several scales, while enabling qualitative query of collected narratives. Results highlight local innovation, community bonding and bridging, and nuances in the role of public institutions as emergent elements of resilience. The thick map shows how top-down assessments can be augmented by thick data and how multiple framings can be anchored in the same system or place. These findings are important to inform and integrate community-oriented and technocentric solutions toward resilience-enhancing measures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Console Water-to-Air Geothermal Heat Pump

Executive Summary Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past several years, the objective of this work is to produce national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover most of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. This measure models the conversion of an existing heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to a series of “console” water-to-air heat pumps served by a ground heat exchanger. Console water-to-air geothermal heat pumps (GHP) are all-in-one packages that have no or minimal ductwork and serve individual spaces. Properly designed ground heat exchanger-coupled systems can offer benefits in energy efficiency relative to “conventional” HVAC systems, as well as facilitating beneficial electrification. Console GHPs can be coupled to a ground loop on the source side and can directly replace electric baseboard heaters or air-source packaged terminal heat pumps. Console GHPs can also bring in outdoor air for ventilation. This measure will be referred to throughout the document as the “Console GHP” upgrade.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predicting Short-Term Deformation in the Central Valley Using Machine Learning

Land subsidence caused by excessive groundwater pumping in Central Valley, California, is a major issue that has several negative impacts such as reduced aquifer storage and damaged infrastructures which, in turn, produce an economic loss due to the high reliance on crop production. This is why it is of utmost importance to routinely monitor and assess the surface deformation occurring. Two main goals that this paper attempts to accomplish are deformation characterization and deformation prediction. The first goal is realized through the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to a series of Interferomtric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images that produces eigenimages displaying the key characteristics of the subsidence. Water storage changes are also directly analyzed by the use of data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellites and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The second goal is accomplished by building a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict short-term deformation after developing an InSAR time series using LiCSBAS, an open-source InSAR time series package. The model is applied to the city of Madera and produces better results than a baseline averaging model and a one dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) based on a mean squared error metric showing the effectiveness of machine learning in deformation prediction as well as the potential for incorporation in hazard mitigation models. The model results can directly aid policy makers in determining the appropriate rate of groundwater withdrawal while maintaining the safety and well-being of the population as well as the aquifers’ integrity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SMM X-ray polychromator

The range of observing and analysis programs accomplished with the X-Ray Polychromator (XRP) instruments during the decline of solar cycle 21 and the rise of the solar cycle 22 is summarized. Section 2 describes XRP operations and current status. This is meant as a guide on how the instrument is used to obtain data and what its capabilities are for potential users. The science section contains a series of representative abstracts from recently published papers on major XRP science topics. It is not meant to be a complete list but illustrates the type of science that can come from the analysis of the XRP data. There then follows a series of appendixes that summarize the major data bases that are available. Appendix A is a complete bibliography of papers and presentations produced using XRP data. Appendix B lists all the spectroscopic data accumulated by the Flat Crystal Spectrometer (FCS). Appendix C is a compilation of the XRP flare catalogue for events equivalent to a GOES C-level flare or greater. It lists the start, peak and end times as well as the peak Ca XIX flux.

Strong, Keith T.↗

Vertical velocity in oceanic convection off tropical Australia

Time series of 1-Hz vertical velocity data collected during aircraft penetrations of oceanic cumulonimbus clouds over the western Pacific warm pool as part of the Equatorial Mesoscale Experiment (EMEX) are analyzed for updraft and downdraft events called cores. An updraft core is defined as occurring whenever the vertical velocity exceeds 1 m/sec for at least 500 m. A downdraft core is defined analogously. Over 19,000 km of straight and level flight legs are used in the analysis. Five hundred eleven updraft cores and 253 downdraft cores are included in the dataset. Core properties are summarized as distributions of average and maximum vertical velocity, diameter, and mass flux in four altitude intervals between 0.2 and 5.8 km. Distributions are approximately lognormal at all levels. Examination of the variation of the statistics with height suggests a maximum in vertical velocity between 2 and 3 km; slightly lower or equal vertical velocity is indicated at 5 km. Near the freezing level, virtual temperature deviations are found to be slightly positive for both updraft and downdraft cores. The excess in updraft cores is much smaller than that predicted by parcel theory. Comparisons with other studies that use the same analysis technique reveal that EMEX cores have approximately the same strength as cores of other oceanic areas, despite warmer sea surface temperatures. Diameter and mass flux are greater than those in the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GATE) but smaller than those in hurricane rainbands. Oceanic cores are much weaker and appear to be slightly smaller than those observed over land during the Thunderstorm Project. The markedly weaker oceanic vertical velocities below 5.8 km (compared to the continental cores) cannot be attributed to smaller total convective available potential energy or to very high water loading. Rather, it is suggested that water loading, although less than adiabatic, is more effective in reducing buoyancy of oceanic cores because of the smaller potential buoyancy below 5.8 km. Entrainment appears to be more effective in reducing buoyancy to well below adiabatic values in oceanic cores, a result consistent with the smaller oceanic core diameters in the lower cloud layer. It is speculated further that core diameters are related to boundary layer depth, which is clearly smaller over the oceans.

Lucas, Christopher↗

Convective Melting of Particles in Flow Under Microgravity Conditions

Study of melting of dispersed or packed solid particles in a fluid under gravity and microgravity conditions provides benchmark information for many engineering applications such as material processing, environmental assessment and protection and space fire protection. During such processes, packed or dispersed solid particles are interacting with fluid flow at above-melting temperatures. By unmasking the buoyancy effects in coupled flow, phase change and heat transport phenomena, a better understanding of melting rate in non-thermal equilibrium, convective conditions can be studied. A series of flight experiments were conducted onboard the NASA KC-135 Microgravity Research Airplane. The Particle Melting in Plow (PMF) module was designed to allow flow through the initially packed ice particles at controlled temperature and velocity. To achieve this, a close-loop flow system was designed. Video images were taken to record the visualization of the melting process, from which a time variation of packed particle thickness distribution at different times can be obtained by the image analysis method. The fluid temperature distribution within the melting zone is measured by thermocouples. An infrared camera was mounted from the top of the test section to record the ice-water thermal images at a given location. The results from thermal images yield local temperature variation between melting solid and liquid and local Stephan number. Typical results for a number of cases are presented. The mathematical model, describing mass, energy, and momentum balance equations for the liquid and solid phases, is presented. It is found that melting rate is influenced mainly by the ratio of Reynolds number (based on the initial particle diameter) to the Froud number, and Stephan number. At the absence of gravity, Froud number approaches zero, Reynolds number and Stephan number become dominant factors governing the melting rate. The numerically determined results are compared with the experimental ones. It is found that the discrepancy between the predicted and measured melting rate is largely due to the inaccuracy in the constitutive equations for effective thermal physical properties, such as effective thermal conductivity and diffusivity, and transport properties, such as particle interaction coefficient, and local heat transfer coefficient of particles.

Stewart, C.↗

Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Induced Transgression of the Chandeleur Islands for Restoration and Wildlife Management

The Chandeleur Islands are the first line of defense against tropical storms and hurricanes for coastal Louisiana. They provide habitats for birds species and are a wildlife refuge; however, distressingly, they are eroding and transgressing at an alarming rate. In 1998, Hurricane Georges caused severe damage to the chain, prompting restoration and monitoring efforts by both Federal and State agencies. Since then, storm events have steadily diminished the condition of the islands. Quantification of shoreline erosion, vegetation, and land loss, from 1979 to 2009, was achieved through the analysis of imagery from Landsat 2-4 Multispectral Scanner, Landsat 4 & 5 Thematic Mapper, and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer sensors. QuickBird imagery was used to validate the accuracy of these results. In addition, this study presents an application of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data to assist in tracking the transgression of the Chandeleur Islands. The use of near infrared reflectance calculated from MOD09 surface reflectance data from 2000 to 2009 was analyzed using the Time Series Product Tool. The scope of this project includes not only assessments of the tropical cyclonic events during this time period, but also the effects of tides, winds, and cold fronts on the spatial extent of the islands. Partnering organizations, such as the Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Research, will utilize those results in an effort to better monitor and address the continual change of the island chain.

Mitchell, Brandie↗

Development of a Protocol to Test Proprioceptive Utilization as a Predictor for Sensorimotor Adaptability

Astronauts returning from space flight show significant inter-subject variations in their abilities to readapt to a gravitational environment because of their innate sensory weighting. The ability to predict the manner and degree to which each individual astronaut will be affected would improve the effectiveness of countermeasure training programs designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. We hypothesize participant's ability to utilize individual sensory information (vision, proprioception and vestibular) influences adaptation in sensorimotor performance after space flight. The goal of this study is to develop a reliable protocol to test proprioceptive utilization in a functional postural control task. Subjects "stand" in a supine position while strapped to a backpack frame holding a friction-free device using air-bearings that allow the subject to move freely in the frontal plane, similar to when in upright standing. The frame is attached to a pneumatic cylinder, which can provide different levels of a gravity-like force that the subject must balance against to remain "upright". The supine posture with eyes closed ensures reduced vestibular and visual contribution to postural control suggesting somatosensory and/or non-otolith vestibular inputs will provide relevant information for maintaining balance control in this task. This setup is called the gravity bed. Fourteen healthy subjects carried out three trials each with eyes open alternated with eyes closed, "standing" on their dominant leg in the gravity bed environment while loaded with 60 percent of their body weight. Subjects were instructed to: "use your sense of sway about the ankle and pressure changes under the foot to maintain balance." Maximum length of a trial was 45 seconds. A force plate underneath the foot recorded forces and moments during the trial and an inertial measurement unit (IMU) attached on the backpack's frame near the center of mass of the subject recorded upper body postural responses. Series of linear and non-linear analyses were carried out on several force plate and IMU data including stabilogram diffusion analysis on the center of pressure (COP) to find a subset of parameters that were sensitive to detect differences in postural performance between eyes open and closed conditions. Results revealed that seven parameters (root mean square (RMS) of medio-lateral (ML) COP, range of ML COP, RMS of roll moment, range of trunk roll, minimum time-to-boundary (TTB), integrated TTB, and critical mean square planar displacement (delta r (sup 2) (sub c)) were significantly different between eyes open and closed conditions. We will present data to show the efficacy of using performance in single leg stance with eyes closed on the gravity bed to assess individuals' ability to utilize proprioceptive information in a functional postural control task to predict re-adaptation for sensorimotor and functional performance.

Goel, R.↗

Impact of Scattering Model on Disdrometer Derived Attenuation Scaling

NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), and the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) are currently entering the third year of a joint propagation study in Milan, Italy utilizing the 20 and 40 GHz beacons of the Alphasat TDP#5 Aldo Paraboni scientific payload. The Ka- and Q-band beacon receivers were installed at the POLIMI campus in June of 2014 and provide direct measurements of signal attenuation at each frequency. Collocated weather instrumentation provides concurrent measurement of atmospheric conditions at the receiver; included among these weather instruments is a Thies Clima Laser Precipitation Monitor (optical disdrometer) which records droplet size distributions (DSD) and droplet velocity distributions (DVD) during precipitation events. This information can be used to derive the specific attenuation at frequencies of interest and thereby scale measured attenuation data from one frequency to another. Given the ability to both predict the 40 gigahertz attenuation from the disdrometer and the 20 gigahertz time-series as well as to directly measure the 40 gigahertz attenuation with the beacon receiver, the Milan terminal is uniquely able to assess these scaling techniques and refine the methods used to infer attenuation from disdrometer data. In order to derive specific attenuation from the DSD, the forward scattering coefficient must be computed. In previous work, this has been done using the Mie scattering model, however, this assumes a spherical droplet shape. The primary goal of this analysis is to assess the impact of the scattering model and droplet shape on disdrometer-derived attenuation predictions by comparing the use of the Mie scattering model to the use of the T-matrix method, which does not assume a spherical droplet. In particular, this paper will investigate the impact of these two scattering approaches on the error of the resulting predictions as well as on the relationship between prediction error and rain rate.

Radio Transmission↗

Overview of the Spacecraft Design for the Psyche Mission Concept

In January 2017, Psyche and a second mission concept were selected by NASA for flight as part of the 14th Discovery mission competition. Assigned for an initial launch date in 2023, the Psyche team was given direction shortly after selection to research the possibility for earlier opportunities. Ultimately, the team was able to identify a launch opportunity in 2022 with a reduced flight time to its destination. This was accomplished in large part to crosscutting trades centered on the electrical power subsystem. These trades were facilitated through the Psyche mission's planned use of Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP), which enables substantial flexibility with respect to trajectory design. In combination with low-thrust trajectory analysis tools, the team was able to robustly converge to solutions with a higher fidelity and accuracy of results. These trades also took advantage of the 1300 series product line produced by Space Systems Loral (SSL), which enabled power growth while maintaining strong system-level heritage through its modular design that has been utilized on a large number of geostationary (GEO) communications satellites. This paper presents an overview of the Psyche mission concept, and the unique architecture that enables the use of commercially developed electric propulsion and space power systems from Space Systems Loral to provide flexibility in mission design. This paper then discusses the trades that allowed the Psyche team to meet a 2022 launch date.

Prikl, Zachary↗

Mapping Forest Disturbance Intensity in North and South Carolina Using Annual Landsat Observations and Field Inventory Data

Disturbance and regrowth are vital processes in determining the roles of forest ecosystem in the carbon and biogeochemical cycles. Using time series observations, the vegetation change tracker (VCT) algorithm was designed to map the location, timing, and spectral magnitudes of forest disturbance events. While these spectral disturbance magnitudes are indicative of physical changes in tree cover or biomass, their quantitative relationships have yet to be established. This study focuses on estimating disturbance intensity as measured by percent basal area removal using spectral indices from the VCT algorithm over North and South Carolina. Repeat measurements on Forest Service Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) ground plots, which provide changes in basal area between multiple dates at precise locations, are used for training and validation of the model. The overall R2 between predicted disturbance intensity and reference data is 0.66, and cross-validation prediction uncertainty is 14% in North Carolina. Possible causes of this uncertainty could be site heterogeneity and the temporal offset between ground measurements and satellite observations. Results show the area of stand clearing disturbances remains relatively stable around 1143 km2 yr−1 in North and South Carolina throughout the period of observations (1985–2015). The average amount of forest area affected by partial disturbance is much higher at 3287 km2 yr−1. The area of partial disturbances has strong inter-annual variability with a high value of 6000 km2 in 2007 and a low value of 1919 km2 in 2013.

Xin Tao↗