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Perform Design Support with MCNP for New Measurements

This report incorporates our work carried out during our 5-month internship at LANL under an internship agreement with EAMEA (École des Applications Militaires de l’Énergie Atomique). After outlining the context in which we worked, we present our work as aid to modeling and predicting the neutronic behavior of nuclear systems, with a view to carrying out criticality experiments qualifying the MCNP code as part of innovative projects. Fourth generation reactors will enable to tackle a lot of issues such as environmental crisis, affordable energy access, and nuclear waste management. They seem to be one of the keys for a sustainable future. Most of the projects that emerge nowadays include the use of HALEU (high assay low enriched uranium) or MOX recycled fuels. Our projects are part of this dynamic and addresses concrete scientific research issues in the nuclear field. Studies of HALEU package are essential to anticipate the need, therefore the Optimus L (OPTImal Modular Universal Shipping cask technology) designed by NAC (Nuclear Assurance Corporation) international but filled with 20 % enriched uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) will be studied to support safe transportation. However, it seems there is no benchmark with a high correlation with the combination of this fuel and this package to validate MCNP simulations. As such, the study will focus on the development of new criticality safety benchmarks for this case. On the other hand, there is a great need for critical benchmarks in the intermediate energy range with MOX fuel. An IER (Integral Experiment Request) has then be requested to answer it through a partnership between French institution IRSN and U.S. Department of Energy's Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP). This experience planned for 2025 requires to gather calculated data through a MCNP model to be realized safely. Finally, a presentation of our one-week experience at the DAF as part of our discovery of criticality experiments will be introduced in Appendix 1: Week at the DAF (Device Assembly Facility)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Intelligently Partitioned Phasor-EMT Hybrid Simulations of Large-Scale, High-IBR Power Systems

As the penetration level of power electronics-interfaced renewables such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind has surged in modern electric grids, new operational risks caused by the dynamics of those inverter-based resources (IBRs) are emerging in parallel. Lessons learned from various grid events include that the impact of IBRs on system-level grid stability will become prominent along with the increase of renewables and that the short-timescale dynamic impacts of IBRs on grid stability are not fully captured by current commercial dynamic simulation tools [1] [2]. For example, IBRs can be controlled to mitigate those destabilizing interactions, but conventional phasor-domain tools (e.g. PSS/E, PSLF) often cannot capture that; likewise, the existing electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation tools (e.g. PSCAD, EMTP) can simulate detailed IBR controls, but for large power systems with many IBRs, slow simulation speeds severely impede the ability to study dynamic events [3] [4]. Massively paralleling simulations using high-performance computing (HPC) can help address this, especially now that cloud-based HPC capability is widely available, but today s EMT tools are not HPC-compatible, and parallelization of dynamic simulation solvers is not trivial because each region can dynamically affect the others. Thus, dynamic simulation of grids with very large numbers of IBRs potentially poses a barrier to the ongoing energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluating Thermostats’ Deadbands Using HVAC Hardware-In-the-Loop Experiment for Advanced Control Strategies

Thermostats play a crucial role in energy consumption, user control, and occupant comfort by serving as the interface between the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system and the building's occupants. The deadband, also referred to as temperature differential, is defined as the temperature difference between the desired setpoint and upper threshold or lower threshold for the HVAC equipment to turn on or off. It is a key factor influencing energy efficiency and user satisfaction. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the deadbands of five different thermostats, tested with a residential heat pump, aiming to identify variations in their deadband settings and implications for energy usage and management. The experimental study was conducted using a HVAC hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) system that allows thermostats to be connected with physical HVAC equipment, driven by conditions in a simulated residential building. The study explores the trade-offs between energy efficiency and occupant comfort and highlights how different thermostats cycle differently based on their deadband settings. The findings offer valuable insights into how thermostat deadband affects comfort and energy use, as well as the cycling frequency of a heat pump.

Ramaraj, Sugirdhalakshmi [National Renewable Energ↗

Computational Fluid Dynamic Modeling of Dry Cask Simulator with Crosswind

The purpose of this study is to create a STAR-CCM+ model of a Belowground Vertical Dry Cask Simulator (BVDCS) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and validate the model with SNL’s experimental results. The BVDCS consists of a single boiling water reactor assembly fitted with electric heaters encompassed by a containment vessel and shell to represent a belowground spent nuclear fuel (SNF) dry storage system. Blowers are located near the inlet and outlet of the BVDCS to simulate crosswind conditions. In addition to the experimental results, the STAR-CCM+ model developed for this study is compared with a previous computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model in a different software program, which is used as a software-to-software benchmark. The experimental results provide a dataset to compare the STAR-CCM+ model results for a variety of different conditions. The main objective is to validate and improve STAR-CCM+ CFD models for spent nuclear fuel storage systems with explicitly modeled external environments and “wind driven” crossflows. These CFD models aide in the study of external particle deposition in spent nuclear fuel storage systems, which is important to predicting the significance of chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC). In addition to experimental comparison, a sensitivity analysis study is performed using the STAR-CCM+ model. The sensitivity analysis provides a quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of various parameters. This helps provide information on various parameters that are of particular importance to constructing a model representative of real life systems. The STAR-CCM+ model compared well to the experimental results showing similar responses to changes in cross wind flow, and a number of parameters are identified for model improvement.

Jensen, Ben J.↗

Comparison of Electromagnetic Transient and Phasor-based Simulation for the Stability of Grid-Forming-Inverter-based Microgrids

The increasing interest in studying feeder-level, inverter-based microgrids requires appropriate simulation methods that can effectively simulate the dynamics of distribution feeders that typically have thousands of nodes. To examine the accuracy of phasor-based simulation for the stability of feeder-level, inverter-based microgrids, a comparative study between electromagnetic transient (EMT) and phasor-based simulation was conducted. Case studies of a two-inverter small microgrid and a modified version of the IEEE 34-Node Test System that has seven grid-forming inverters show that phasor-based simulation agrees well with EMT simulation when the P-f droop gains of grid-forming inverter controllers are within normal ranges. However, under extremely high P-f droop gains, phasor-based simulation can result in over-optimistic stability results. This study provides insight into the applicability of phasor-based simulation for the stability of feeder-level, inverter-based microgrids.

Du, Wei↗

Cooling performance of an active-passive hybrid composite phase change material (HcPCM) finned heat sink: Constant operating mode

Here, the present study explores a hybrid thermal management technology based on air cooling and hybrid composite phase change material (HcPCM) filled finned heat sink for cooling performance of lower to medium heat flux dissipating electronic devices. Two-dimensional numerical simulations are conducted to study the conjugate heat transfer effects of three types of finned heat sink: air-cooled finned heat sink, HcPCM-cooled finned heat sink, and hybrid (air-HcPCM) cooled finned heat sink. A heat sink with a constant volume faction of plate-fins is designed in all cases and simultaneous effects of hybrid nanoparticles and air are investigated to keep the heat sink temperature at safe operating conditions between 40–60°C. The effect of air is incorporated into the heat sink by applying the convective heat transfer coefficient of h c = 10–100W /m 2 .K which tends to create the natural convection and forced convection heat transfer characteristics. The heat flux is varied from 25–40kW /m 2 in the current study. The hybrid nanoparticles of carbon additives (GO and MWCNTs) are dispersed into the RT-35HC, used as a PCM, with a volume fraction of 0% to 6%. Transient simulations are carried out using COMSOL Multiphysics to solve the governing equations for PCM based conjugate heat transfer model. The results showed that forced convection heat transfer improved the cooling performance of the hybrid heat sink compared to natural convection heat transfer. The addition of nanoparticles further enhanced thermal enhancement and uniform melting distribution of PCM inside the finned heat sink. The h c between 30 to 50W/m 2 .K shows optimized values for forced convection heat transfer operating conditions. The volume fraction of 2% of GO+MWCNTs nanoparticles in recommended or optimum concentration for uniform melting of PCM inside the finned heat sink.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ORNL_AISD_NiNb

This dataset describes the nickel-niobium solid solution binary alloy, where the two constituent elements nickel (Ni) and niobium (Nb) are randomly placed on an underlying crystal lattice. This dataset for nickel-niobium (Ni-Nb) alloys available includes the formation energy and bulk modulus for each crystal structure. Each atomic sample has a disordered phase which is obtained starting from an initial regular crystal structure of type body-centered cubic (BCC), face-centered cubic (FCC), or hexagonal compact packed (HCP). The geometry optimization ensures that all the alloy samples reached the equilibrium with negative formation energy. We perform geometry optimizations using the LAMMPS simulation package [1], a flexible simulation tool for particle-based materials modeling at the atomic, meso, and continuum scales. We utilized the embedded atom model (EAM) potential for Ni and Nb developed in a previous study [2]. The potential could describe behaviors of the liquid and solid phases of Ni-Nb alloy. The structural factors and angular distributions of three atoms are well-matched with X-ray and ab initio-based molecular dynamics data. We prepared the three different crystals with different initial lattice parameters (3.52 Ã… for FCC, 3.32 Ã… for BCC, and 3.5 Ã… for HCP). We performed energy minimization in two steps. Firstly, we minimized the structures with an isotropic unit cell to minimize the side effects from our arbitrary lattice parameters for all other compositions. Then, we applied geometry optimization with a triclinic (non-orthogonal) unit cell to fully minimize the stress components to calculate the elastic constants. In this procedure, we chose 10,000 as the maximum number of allowable steps aimed at obtaining fully relaxed atomic geometries. The dataset consists of three sets of crystal structures. The first set contains 46,086 irregular crystal structures, each of them with 54 atoms, obtained through optimization starting from a regular BCC crystal structure. The second set contains 24,543 irregular crystal structures, each of them with 32 atoms, obtained through optimization starting from a regular FCC crystal structure. The third set contains 39,303 irregular crystal structures, each of them with 48 atoms, obtained through optimization starting from a regular HCP crystal structure. The atomic configurations within each set span the possible compositional range. The three sets have been unified in a global dataset, which is extremely heterogeneous in terms of crystal structures, lattice volumes, and atomic configurations. Organization of files inside the dataset: the dataset contains three subdirectories called • BCC_opt • FCC_opt • HCP_opt based on the type of initial regular structure used to start the geometry optimization. Inside each of these folders, every atomic structure is identified by a string “A_B_Câ€, where A denotes the number of Nb in the system, B denotes index of structure with a given Nb number, and C denotes the total number of structures generated with a given Nb number. For each optimized crystal structure identified by the unique string of characters “A_B_Câ€, three files are provided: • A_B_C_opt.xyz: The optimized geometries in xyz format • A_B_C_opt.cfg: The optimized geometries in cfg format. It includes cell information and atomic energy, and forces calculated from LAMMPS. • A_B_C.elastic: Raw data of 21 elastic constants from LAMMPS output. • A_B_C.bulk: Calculated upper and lower bounds of bulk modulus and averaged one based on Voigt-Reuss-Hill approach from *.elastic. References: [1] A. P. Thompson, H. M. Aktulga, R. Berger, D. S. Bolintineanu, W. M. Brown, P. S. Crozier, P. J. in 't Veld, A. Kohlmeyer, S. G. Moore, T. D. Nguyen, R. Shan, M. J. Stevens, J. Tranchida, C. Trott, and S. J. Plimpton. LAMMPS - a flexible simulation tool for particle-based materials modeling at the atomic, meso, and continuum scales. Comp. Phys. Comm., 271:108171, 2022. [2] Y Zhang, R Ashcraft, MI Mendelev, CZ Wang, and KF Kelton. Experimental and molecular dynamics simulation study of structure of liquid and amorphous ni62nb38 alloy. The Journal of chemical physics, 145(20):204505, 2016.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Chemical vapor infiltration of additively manufactured preforms: Pore-resolved simulations and experimental validation

The densification of additively manufactured porous preforms by chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) is studied using pore-resolved simulations and experiments. Experimentally, 3D printed silicon carbide (SiC) preforms are subject to CVI synthesis using methyltrichlorosilane (MTS) precursor to obtain high purity SiC/SiC composites. Optical images of the cross sections of the processed preforms are analyzed to obtain the spatial porosity distribution. The numerical method is based on a level set formulation to capture the spatial distribution and time evolution of the pore scale microstructural characteristics. The coupled transport and kinetic effects are represented using a dimensionless Thiele modulus. Simulations are initialized using representative synthetic preform geometries comprising of packed particles based on the size distribution of the powder used for 3D printing. The simulation results are validated against the experimental observations in terms of total density and the distribution of residual porosity. The densification characteristics, porosity classification, concentration profiles, and structure functions are analyzed as functions of processing temperature and Thiele modulus.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Contribution of the Hydroxyl Group on Interfacial Heat Conduction of Monohydric Alcohols: A Molecular Dynamics Study

Monohydric alcohols have been used as promising phase change materials (PCMs) for low-temperature latent heat storage. However, the heat storage/retrieval rates are limited due to the low thermal conductivity of such alcohols. In this work, nonequilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) simulations were performed to study the microscopic heat conduction in example monohydric alcohols, i.e., 1-dodecanol (C12H26O), 1-tetradecanol (C14H30O), and 1-hexadecanol (C16H34O). A simplified ideal crystal model was proposed to exploit the potential for improving the thermal conductivity of monohydric alcohols. The effect of ideal crystalline structures, especially the contribution of the hydroxyl group, on the microscopic heat conduction process was analyzed. The thermal conductivity of the ideal crystals of the various monohydric alcohols was predicted to be more than twice as compared to that of their respective solids. The major thermal resistance in the ideal crystals was found around the molecular interfaces, as a result of the excellent heat conduction performance along the linear molecular chains. The calculated vibrational density of states (VDOS) and interfacial heat transfer were then investigated. When the interfaces are surrounded by hydroxyl groups as walls, strong hydrogen bond (HB) interactions were observed. The interfacial heat transfer coefficient of the ideal crystalline structures of 1-tetradecanol was found to reach up to ~735.6 MW/m2 W. It was elucidated that the high interfacial heat transfer rate is clearly related to the stronger intermolecular interactions.

Engineering↗

Plasma electron hole kinematics. Hole tracking Particle-In-Cell simulation

The kinematics of a 1-D electron hole is studied using a novel Particle-In-Cell simulation code. A hole tracking technique enables us to follow the trajectory of a fast-moving solitary hole and study quantitatively hole acceleration and coupling to ions. We observe a transient at the initial stage of hole formation when the hole accelerates to several times the cold-ion sound speed. Artificially imposing slow ion speed changes on a fully formed hole causes its velocity to change even when the ion stream speed in the hole frame greatly exceeds the ion thermal speed, so there are no reflected ions. The behavior that we observe in numerical simulations agrees very well with our analytic theory of hole momentum conservation and the effects of “jetting.”

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deceleration-stage Rayleigh–Taylor growth in a background magnetic field studied in cylindrical and Cartesian geometries

Experiments have identified the Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) instability as one of the greatest obstacles to achieving inertial confinement fusion. Consequently, mitigation strategies to reduce RT growth and fuel–ablator mixing in the hotspot during the deceleration phase of the implosion are of great interest. In this work, the effect of seed magnetic fields on deceleration-phase RT growth are studied in planar and cylindrical geometries under conditions relevant to the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and Omega experiments. The magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and resistive-MHD capabilities of the FLASH code are used to model imploding cylinders and planar blast-wave-driven targets. Realistic target and laser parameters are presented that suggest the occurrence of morphological differences in late-time RT evolution in the cylindrical NIF case and a measurable difference in spike height of single-mode growth in the planar NIF case. The results of this study indicate the need for target designs to utilize an RT-unstable foam–foam interface in order to achieve sufficient magnetic field amplification to alter RT evolution. Benchmarked FLASH simulations are used to study these magnetic field effects in both resistive and ideal MHD.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Design and Analysis of an Integrated Additively Manufactured Test Article for Plasma-Facing Components

Current plasma-facing components (PFCs) used in helium-cooled divertor modules are complex structures with tungsten tile, steel sleeve components, and cartridges, all assembled in a helium-cooled multiple jet (HEMJ) structure. The goal of this project is to simplify the complex PFC design using additive manufacturing techniques to create a single integrated tungsten test article. Apart from the flexibility this opens up in exploring a wide array of geometries for the article, having a single integrated article significantly reduces the number of joints and parts in the article, thus reducing chances of leaks. A process called electron beam melting has shown to produce very high-density samples and unique geometries, enabling HEMJ or similar designs. To validate and optimize this novel design, the model underwent a series of computational fluid dynamics and finite element analysis simulations to replicate steady-state heat flux in the divertors. The simulations presented in this study consider a steady-state base heat flux of 5 MW/m 2 , with water serving as the coolant. Future research will explore the use of helium as a coolant, simulate edge-localized-mode conditions, and include experimental validation. Since 3D-printed tungsten is anisotropic, the build direction versus build plane of the article are taken into consideration for the test article strength. Because of the high operating temperatures and low ductility of tungsten, thermal creep and brittle fracture are important failure mechanisms to consider. In conclusion, the cap is evaluated with various flow velocities and nozzle diameters, and an optimal design choice is made for which this cap will survive the divertor conditions with a conservative safety margin.

Divertor↗

Neutrino Flavor Transformation in Neutron Star Mergers

Here, we present the first numerical relativity simulations including neutrino flavor transformations that could result from flavor instabilities, quantum many-body effects, or potential beyond standard model physics in neutron star mergers. We find that neutrino flavor transformations impact the composition and structure of the remnant, potentially leaving an imprint on the postmerger gravitational-wave signal. They also have a significant impact on the composition and nucleosynthesis yields of the ejecta.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Parking Strategies and Outcomes for Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Operations

Parking spots are a premium commodity, especially in dense downtown settings, so this study examines the service impacts of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) parking in legal on- or off-street locations when idle across Travis County in Austin, Texas. Here, using an agent-based activity-based travel demand model with dynamic traffic simulation, two restricted-parking strategies for SAVs were simulated. SAVs either found the nearest available parking spot or the lowest-cost spot (via a tradeoff of parking fees and distance-based costs). Two comparisons were conducted to analyze the impacts of these strategies. First, two restricted parking strategies were compared, where SAVs park without competition with private human-driven vehicles (HVs) for parking locations. Second, a more realistic analysis compared two SAV parking strategies with a scenario where SAVs remain idle in place. Private HVs in all scenarios and strategies of this comparison park at the closest designated location unless they opt for private parking. Using a supply of 8,400 aggregated parking locations in Austin, this study simulated fleet performance under different trip demands, with SAV fares of $\$0.62$ per kilometer ($\$1$ per mile) plus a $\$1$ fixed pickup fee with dynamic ridesharing permitted. Parking costs were negligible in both SAV parking search strategies applied to the Austin network because of the region’s provision of mostly free parking. Requiring SAVs to park on designated on- and off-street parking locations and parking lots (restricted parking) also increased parking costs for HV drivers by up to 22% since SAVs occupied some free parking spaces, especially in the least-cost parking search strategy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

In situ tumor model for longitudinal in silico imaging trials

Abstract Objective.In this article, we introduce a computational model for simulating the growth of breast cancer lesions accounting for the stiffness of surrounding anatomical structures.Approach.In our model, ligaments are classified as the most rigid structures while the softer parts of the breast are occupied by fat and glandular tissues As a result of these variations in tissue elasticity, the rapidly proliferating tumor cells are met with differential resistance. It is found that these cells are likely to circumvent stiffer terrains such as ligaments, instead electing to proliferate preferentially within the more yielding confines of the breast’s soft topography. By manipulating the interstitial tumor pressure in direct proportion to the elastic constants of the tissues surrounding the tumor, this model thus creates the potential for realizing a database of unique lesion morphology sculpted by the distinctive topography of each local anatomical infrastructure. We modeled the growth of simulated lesions within volumes extracted from fatty breast models, developed by Graffet alwith a resolution of 50μm generated with the open-source and readily available Virtual Imaging Clinical Trials for Regulatory Evaluation (VICTRE) imaging pipeline. To visualize and validate the realism of the lesion models, we leveraged the imaging component of the VICTRE pipeline, which replicates the siemens mammomat inspiration mammography system in a digital format. This system was instrumental in generating digital mammogram (DM) images for each breast model containing the simulated lesions.Results.By utilizing the DM images, we were able to effectively illustrate the imaging characteristics of the lesions as they integrated with the anatomical backgrounds. Our research also involved a reader study that compared 25 simulated DM regions of interest (ROIs) with inserted lesions from our models with DM ROIs from the DDSM dataset containing real manifestations of breast cancer. In general the simulation time for the lesions was approximately 2.5 hours, but it varied depending on the lesion’s local environment.Significance.The lesion growth model will facilitate and enhance longitudinal in silico trials investigating the progression of breast cancer.

Engineering↗

Numerical-heating effects in atmospheric pressure streamer discharges simulated with a PIC code

Artificial heating in plasma simulations is a well-known phenomenon which occurs when, among other things, the Debye length is poorly resolved by the simulation mesh. Here, in this work, the degree to which numerical-heating occurs during a simulation of a nanosecond atmospheric pressure streamer discharge is examined. The streamer is simulated using a two-dimensional finite-element, particle-in-cell code Empire, which uses direct simulation Monte Carlo for binary particle interactions. Initially, an estimate of the numerical-heating rate applied to Empire is performed using a simple plasma model. Second, a positive atmospheric pressure streamer discharge simulation is performed to study the effects of numerical heating on plasma density, electron temperature, and streamer velocity. The nominal Debye length is approximately 1 μm and the amount of numerical heating introduced in the simulation is varied by using mesh sizes ranging from 2 μm to 20 μm. A measurable numerical heating quantity is proposed that can be used to estimate the appropriate element size and quantify the numerical-heating that can be expected over the simulation time for an atmospheric pressure streamer. In conclusion while Δx/λ D violations can be an issue it is not likely to be an issue with streamer discharges that are temporally short and occur in environments where collision frequencies are high. This result validates the rationale of grid size choices for a large amount of previously published works where Δx/λ D violation was not clearly addressed. Primary finding of this work is that numerical heating is of minor concern for plasma simulations where electron–neutral collisions are numerous such that multiple collisions can occur within a single plasma period.

Nikic, Dejan [University of New Mexico, Albuquerqu↗

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25 $\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.22 $^{\circ }$ /jats:inline-formula>) versus 50 $\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.44 $^{\circ }$ )) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude climate

Observations and model simulations show enhanced warming in the Arctic under increasing greenhouse gases, a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification (AA), that is likely caused by sea-ice loss. AA reduces meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation, thus mid-latitude weather and climate changes have been attributed to AA, often on the basis of regression analysis and atmospheric simulations. However, other modelling studies show only a weak link. This inconsistency may result from deficiencies in separating the effects of AA from those of natural variability or background warming. In this work, using coupled model simulations with and without AA, we show that cold-season precipitation, snowfall and circulation changes over northern mid-latitudes come mostly from background warming. AA and sea-ice loss increase precipitation and snowfall above ~60° N and reduce meridional temperature gradients above ~45° N in the lower–mid troposphere. However, minimal impact on the mean climate is seen below ~60° N, with weak reduction in zonal wind over 50°–70° N and 150–700 hPa, mainly over the North Atlantic and northern central Asia. These results suggest that the climatic impacts of AA are probably small outside the high latitudes, thus caution is needed in attributing mid-latitude changes to AA and sea-ice loss on the basis of statistical analyses that cannot distinguish the impact of AA from other correlated changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗