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At least 1,603 records · Page 89

Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability

Abstract The Asian monsoon provides the freshwater that a large population in Asia depends on, but how anthropogenic climate warming may alter this key water source remains unclear. This is partly due to the prevailing point-wise assessment of climate projections, even though climate change patterns are inherently organized by dynamics intrinsic to the climate system. Here, we assess the future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation by projecting the precipitation from several large ensemble simulations and CMIP6 simulations onto the two leading dynamical modes of internal variability. The result shows a remarkable agreement among the ensembles on the increasing trends and the increasing daily variability in both dynamical modes, with the projection pattern emerging as early as the late 2030 s. The increase of the daily variability of the modes heralds more monsoon-related hydrological extremes over some identifiable East Asian regions in the coming decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Finally, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Capturing convection essential for projections of climate change in African dust emission

The summertime Sahara and Sahel are the world’s largest source of airborne mineral dust. Cold-pool outflows from moist convection (‘haboobs’) are a dominant source of summertime uplift but are essentially missing in global models, raising major questions on the reliability of climate projections of dust and dust impacts. Here we use convection-permitting simulations of pan-African climate change, which explicitly capture haboobs, to investigate whether this key limitation of global models affects projections. We show that explicit convection is key to capturing the observed summertime maximum of dust-generating winds, which is missed with parameterised convection. Despite this, future climate changes in dust-generating winds are more sensitive to the effects of explicit convection on the wider meteorology than they are to the haboobs themselves, with model differences in the change in dust-generating winds reaching 60% of current values. The results therefore show the importance of improving convection in climate models for dust projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Neutronics Calculation Advances at Los Alamos: Manhattan Project to Monte Carlo

The history and advances of neutronics calculations at Los Alamos during the Manhattan Project through the present are reviewed. Substantial improvements to neutron diffusion methods and the invention of both the Monte Carlo neutron transport methods in 1947 and deterministic discrete ordinates Sn in 1953 were all made at Los Alamos just after the Manhattan Project. We briefly summarize early simpler and more approximate neutronics methods and then describe the need to better predict neutronics behavior through consideration of theoretical equations, models and algorithms, experimental measurements, and available computing capabilities and their limitations. This paper briefly covers key advances in deterministic methods during the Manhattan Project. These capabilities, coupled with increasing postwar defense needs and the invention of electronic computing with the Electronic Numeric Integrator and Computer, known as ENIAC, and the Mathematical Analyzer Numerical Integrator and Automatic Computer Model, known as MANIAC, led to the creation of Monte Carlo and deterministic discrete ordinates neutronics transport methods. We note the important role that the scientific comradery between the Los Alamos scientists played in the process. This paper briefly covers the early methods, algorithms, computers, and electronic and women pioneers that enabled Monte Carlo to spread to all areas of science. We focus heavily on these early developments and the subsequent creation of the MCNP® code, advances in its associated nuclear data, and its applications to problems of national defense at Los Alamos.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Human Phenotype Ontology project: linking molecular biology and disease through phenotype data

The Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) project, available at http://www.human-phenotype-ontology.org, provides a structured, comprehensive and welldefined set of 10,088 classes (terms) describing human phenotypic abnormalities and 13,326 subclass relations between the HPO classes. In addition we have developed logical definitions for 46% of all HPO classes using terms from ontologies for anatomy, cell types, function, embryology, pathology and other domains. This allows interoperability with several resources, especially those containing phenotype information on model organisms such as mouse and zebrafish. Here we describe the updated HPO database, which provides annotations of 7,278 human hereditary syndromes listed in OMIM, Orphanet and DECIPHER to classes of the HPO. Various meta-attributes such as frequency, references and negations are associated with each annotation. Several large-scale projects worldwide utilize the HPO for describing phenotype information in their datasets. We have therefore generated equivalence mappings to other phenotype vocabularies such as LDDB, Orphanet, MedDRA, UMLS and phenoDB, allowing integration of existing datasets and interoperability with multiple biomedical resources. We have created various ways to access the HPO database content using flat files, a MySQL database, and Web-based tools. All data and documentation on the HPO project can be found online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Nuclear states projected from a pair condensate

Atomic nuclei exhibit deformation, pairing correlations, and rotational symmetries. To meet these competing demands in a computationally tractable formalism, we revisit the use of general pair condensates with good particle number as a trial wave function for even-even nuclei. After minimizing the energy of the condensate, allowing for general triaxial deformations, we project out states with good angular momentum with a fast projection technique. To show applicability, we present example calculations from pair condensates in several model spaces and compare against angular-momentum projected Hartree-Fock and full configuration-interaction shell-model calculations. This approach successfully generates spherical, vibrational, and rotational spectra, demonstrating potential for modeling medium- to heavy-mass nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Projection of angular momentum via linear algebra

Projection of many-body states with good angular momentum from an initial state is usually accomplished by a three-dimensional integral. Here, we show how projection can instead be done by solving a straightforward system of linear equations. We demonstrate the method and give sample applications to $^{48}$Cr and $^{60}$Fe in the $pf$ shell. This new projection scheme, which is competitive against the standard numerical quadrature, should also be applicable to other quantum numbers such as isospin and particle number.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Remark on Algorithm 1012: Computing Projections with Large Datasets

In ACM TOMS Algorithm 1012, the DELAUNAYSPARSE software is given for performing Delaunay interpolation in medium to high dimensions. When extrapolating outside the convex hull of the training set, DELAUNAYSPARSE calls the nonnegative least squares solver DWNNLS to compute projections onto the convex hull. However, DWNNLS and many other available sum-of-squares optimization solvers were not intended for usage with many variable problems, which result from the large training sets that are typical in machine learning applications. Thus, a new PROJECT subroutine is given, based on the highly customizable quadratic program solver BQPD. This solution is shown to be as robust as DELAUNAYSPARSE for projection onto both synthetic and real-world datasets, where other available solvers frequently fail. Although it is intended as an update for DELAUNAYSPARSE, due to the difficulty and prevalence of the problem, this solution is likely to be of external interest as well.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A survey of software implementations used by application codes in the Exascale Computing Project

The US Department of Energy Office of Science and the National Nuclear Security Administration initiated the Exascale Computing Project (ECP) in 2016 to prepare mission-relevant applications and scientific software for the delivery of the exascale computers starting in 2023. The ECP currently supports 24 efforts directed at specific applications and six supporting co-design projects. These 24 application projects contain 62 application codes that are implemented in three high-level languages—C, C++, and Fortran—and use 22 combinations of graphical processing unit programming models. The most common implementation language is C++, which is used in 53 different application codes. The most common programming models across ECP applications are CUDA and Kokkos, which are employed in 15 and 14 applications, respectively. This article provides a survey of the programming languages and models used in the ECP applications codebase that will be used to achieve performance on the future exascale hardware platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NGNP Project 2011 Status and Path Forward

High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) technology can play an important role in the United States’ energy future by extending the use of nuclear energy for non-electricity energy production missions as well as continuing to provide a considerable base load electric power generation capability. Extending nuclear energy into the industrial and transportation sectors through the co-production of process heat and electricity provides safe and reliable energy for these sectors in an environmentally responsible manner. The safety case for the modular HTGR provides a substantial improvement in nuclear plant safety for the protection of the public and the environment, and supports collocation of the HTGR with major industrial facilities. The NGNP Project at the Idaho National Laboratory has been working toward an objective of commercializing the HTGR technology under DOE direction since 2006. The Project is undergoing a quantum shift in direction and scope as a result of recent DOE decisions. This paper summarizes where the Project has been, where it is at the time of this writing and what is needed in future activities to commercialize HTGR technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NGNP (Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project): High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Key Definitions, Plant Capabilities, and Assumptions

This document is intended to provide a Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project tool in which to collect and identify key definitions, plant capabilities, and inputs and assumptions to be used in ongoing efforts related to the licensing and deployment of a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). These definitions, capabilities, and assumptions are extracted from a number of sources, including NGNP Project documents such as licensing related white papers and previously issued requirement documents. Also included is information agreed upon by the NGNP Regulatory Affairs group's Licensing Working Group and Configuration Council. The NGNP Project approach to licensing an HTGR plant via a combined license (COL) is defined within the referenced white papers and reference, and is not duplicated here.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Funding Solar Projects at Federal Agencies: Mechanisms and Selection Criteria [Brochure]

Implementing solar energy projects at federal facilities is a process. The project planning phase of the process includes determining goals, building a team, determining site feasibility and selecting the appropriate project funding tool. This fact sheet gives practical guidance to assist decision-makers with understanding and selecting the funding tool that would best address their site goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Military Base Off-Taker Opportunities for Tribal Renewable Energy Projects

This white paper surveys DOD installations that could have an increased potential interest in the purchase of energy from renewable energy projects on tribal lands. Identification of likely purchasers of renewable energy is a first step in the energy project development process, and this paper aims to identify likely electricity customers that tribal commercial-scale projects could serve. This white paper builds on a geospatial analysis completed in November 2012 identifying 53 reservations within 10 miles of military bases (DOE 2012). This analysis builds on those findings by further refining the list of potential opportunity sites to 15 reservations (Table ES-1), based on five additional factors: 1) The potential renewable resources required to meet the installation energy loads; 2) Proximity to transmission lines; 3) Military installation energy demand; 4) State electricity prices; 5) Local policy and regulatory environment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multifamily Retrofit Project Manager Job/Task Analysis and Report: September 2013

The development of job/task analyses (JTAs) is one of three components of the Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals project and will allow industry to develop training resources, quality assurance protocols, accredited training programs, and professional certifications. The Multifamily Retrofit Project Manager JTA identifies and catalogs all of the tasks performed by multifamily retrofit project managers, as well as the knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) needed to perform the identified tasks.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050

This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly data for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

How Do The EV Project Participants Feel About Their EVS?

The EV Project is an infrastructure study that enrolled over 8,000 residential participants. These participants purchased or leased a Nissan Leaf battery electric vehicle (BEV) or Chevrolet Volt extended range electric vehicle (EREV) and were among the first to explore this new electric drive technology. Collectively, BEV, EREV, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are called plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). The EV Project participants were very cooperative and enthusiastic about their participation in the project and very supportive in providing feedback and information. The information and attitudes of these participants concerning their experience with their PEVs were solicited using a survey in June 2013. At that time, some had up to 3 years of experience with their PEVs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

How Do The EV Project Participants Feel About Charging Their EV Away From Home?

The EV Project is an infrastructure study that enrolled over 8,000 residential participants. These participants purchased or leased a Nissan Leaf battery electric vehicle or Chevrolet Volt extended-range electric vehicle and were among the first to explore this new electric drive technology. Collectively, battery electric vehicles, extended-range electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are called PEVs. The EV Project participants were very cooperative and enthusiastic about their participation in the project and very supportive in providing feedback and information. The information and attitudes of these participants concerning their experience with their PEVs were solicited using a survey in June 2013. At that time, some had up to 3 years of experience with their PEVs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Statistical Projections for Multi-resolution, Multi-dimensional Visual Data Exploration and Analysis

An ongoing challenge in visual exploration and analysis of large, multi-dimensional datasets is how to present useful, concise information to a user for some specific visualization tasks. Typical approaches to this problem have proposed either reduced-resolution versions of data, or projections of data, or both. These approaches still have some limitations such as consuming high computation or suffering from errors. In this work, we explore the use of a statistical metric as the basis for both projections and reduced-resolution versions of data, with a particular focus on preserving one key trait in data, namely variation. We use two different case studies to explore this idea, one that uses a synthetic dataset, and another that uses a large ensemble collection produced by an atmospheric modeling code to study long-term changes in global precipitation. The primary findings of our work are that in terms of preserving the variation signal inherent in data, that using a statistical measure more faithfully preserves this key characteristic across both multi-dimensional projections and multi-resolution representations than a methodology based upon averaging.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗