Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “modeling framework”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,603 records · Page 89

HAWC2 and BeamDyn: Comparison Between Beam Structural Models for Aero-Servo-Elastic Frameworks

This work presents a comparison of two beam codes for aero-servo-elastic frameworks: a new structural model for the aeroelastic code HAWC2 and a new nonlinear beam model, BeamDyn, for the aeroelastic modularization framework FAST v8. The main goal is to establish the suitability of the two approaches to model the structural behaviour of modern wind turbine blades in operation. Through a series of benchmarking structural cases of increasing complexity, the capability of the two codes to simulate highly nonlinear effects is investigated and analyzed. Results show that even though the geometrically exact beam theory can better model effects such as very large deflections, rotations, and structural couplings, an approach based on a multi-body formulation assembled through linear elements is capable of computing accurate solutions for typical nonlinear beam theory benchmarking cases.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

nys_psy (NYgrid Model Translation to the Sienna framework) (SWR-25-63)

This repository contains the translation of the NYgrid model, developed by the Anderson Energy Lab at Cornell University, into the Sienna Framework. The baseline model is based on 2019 data. The 2040 version of the model features a unified, correlated dataset of various generation and load profiles spanning 22 years. The methodology used to generate these data is detailed in the following paper The scripts for data generation are available in the ny-clcpa2050 repository. Note: While this test system is designed to simulate the power flow of the New York State transmission system, it does not represent the actual transmission network.

Liu, Vivienne [National Renewable Energy Laborator↗

Incorporating physically-based microstructures in materials modeling: Bridging phase field and crystal plasticity frameworks

Here, the mechanical properties of materials systems are highly influenced by various features at the microstructural level. The ability to capture these heterogeneities and incorporate them into continuum-scale frameworks of the deformation behavior is considered a key step in the development of complex non-local models of failure. In this study, we present a modeling framework that incorporates physically-based realizations of polycrystalline aggregates from a phase field (PF) model into a crystal plasticity finite element (CP-FE) framework. Simulated annealing via the PF model yields ensembles of materials microstructures with various grain sizes and shapes. With the aid of a novel FE meshing technique, FE discretizations of these microstructures are generated, where several key features, such as conformity to interfaces, and triple junction angles, are preserved. The discretizations are then used in the CP-FE framework to simulate the mechanical response of polycrystalline α-iron. It is shown that the conformal discretization across interfaces reduces artificial stress localization commonly observed in non-conformal FE discretizations. The work presented herein is a first step towards incorporating physically-based microstructures in lieu of the overly simplified representations that are commonly used. In broader terms, the proposed framework provides future avenues to explore bridging models of materials processes, e.g. additive manufacturing and microstructure evolution of multi-phase multi-component systems, into continuum-scale frameworks of the mechanical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Irradiated Fueled Experiments using the MOOSE Framework [Slides]

Modeling and simulation (M&S) methods are able to predict uncertainties in experimental parameters (e.g., power and fission density) during irradiation. A shortfall exists in predicting how sensitive some of the parameters will behave during the experimental process. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification (SUQ) is critical in support of qualification and licensing reactor fuels. The application of a method to quantify the uncertainty in these experiments is critical to the prediction of their performance. In this work, we propose the use of a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method to quantify the sensitive parameters in these simulations and, in an extension, their experimental surrogates. We propose to perform M&S using PCE uncertainty quantification on a previously irradiated fueled experiment in order to provide a validation case for Griffin and expand its use as a verification and validation (V&V) tool for experiments with a neutronics component. Griffin is an advanced, deterministic neutronics analysis code built using the MOOSE (multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment) framework which can provide state-of-the-art neutronic analysis on M&S of experiments. We will use the stochastic tools module (STM) in MOOSE to provide PCE uncertainty quantification on the proposed experimental setup. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) does not yet have an in-house developed code with V&V approval for experiments performed on-site; this work would provide a necessary addition of support for experiments performed at INL. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has explicitly requested uncertainties in calculated values such as fuel power and burnup, and the development of this capability would benefit the relationship between INL and the NRC.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Updating the BNB Flux Prediction at SBND

Precise, accurate neutrino flux predictions for neutrino beam experiments are crucial for physics results. Flux uncertainties contribute significantly to the total systematic uncertainties seen in modern accelerator neutrino measurements such as cross sections, oscillations, and BSM studies.. For over a decade, experiments utilizing Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) have relied on the 2009 MiniBooNE flux prediction. However, the high-statistics era of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program, with both SBND and ICARUS now operating, demands a modernized flux model and framework. While SBND is using the MiniBooNE flux model for its Generation 1 analyses, including many upcoming cross section measurements, future work will be based on a new flux model. In this talk, the ongoing work towards this new model will be outlined, including a new simulation framework (G4BNB), a new evaluation of model parameters from hadron scattering data, and a new framework for evaluating systematic uncertainties (BNBFP). Additionally, expansions to the flux model to include BSM contributions from neutral mesons will be discussed, as well as the PRISM capabilities of SBND to observe a wide range of off axis angles of the neutrino beam.

Paton, Josephine [Fermilab]↗

Updating the BNB Flux Prediction at SBND

Precise, accurate neutrino flux predictions for neutrino beam experiments are crucial for physics results. Flux uncertainties contribute significantly to the total systematic uncertainties seen in modern accelerator neutrino measurements such as cross sections, oscillations, and BSM studies.. For over a decade, experiments utilizing Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) have relied on the 2009 MiniBooNE flux prediction. However, the high-statistics era of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program, with both SBND and ICARUS now operating, demands a modernized flux model and framework. While SBND is using the MiniBooNE flux model for its Generation 1 analyses, including many upcoming cross section measurements, future work will be based on a new flux model. In this talk, the ongoing work towards this new model will be outlined, including a new simulation framework (G4BNB), a new evaluation of model parameters from hadron scattering data, and a new framework for evaluating systematic uncertainties (BNBFP). Additionally, expansions to the flux model to include BSM contributions from neutral mesons will be discussed, as well as the PRISM capabilities of SBND to observe a wide range of off axis angles of the neutrino beam.

Paton, Josephine [Fermilab]↗

Combining simulations and data with deep learning and uncertainty quantification for advanced energy modeling

A novel and modern framework for energy modeling is developed in this paper with a focus on nuclear energy modeling and simulation. The framework combines multiphysics simulations and real data, with validation by uncertainty quantification tasks and facilitation by machine and deep learning methods. The hybrid framework is built on the basis of a wide range of physical models, real data, mathematical and statistical methods, and artificial intelligence techniques. The framework is demonstrated in different applications, including quantifying uncertainties in computer simulations, multiphysics coupling, analysis of variance using machine learning surrogate models, deep learning of time series phenomena, and propagating parametric uncertainties of nuclear data. The applications demonstrated are oriented to nuclear engineering simulations, even though majority of the methods are applicable to other energy sources (eg, renewable). Efficient utilization of this framework is expected to yield a much better understanding of the physical phenomena analyzed as well as an improvement in the performance of the energy design/model under construction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A ModEx Framework for Watershed Subsurface Investigation With Limited Geophysical Data Using Machine Learning and Hydrologic Modeling

Abstract Subsurface heterogeneity influences watershed hydrology strongly but remains difficult to characterize at catchment scales with sparse and costly field data. Geophysical surveys such as electromagnetic induction (EMI) provide local spatial subsurface images yet scaling them to watershed scales and converting EMI‐derived resistivity into hydraulic properties remains a challenge. We present a Model–Experiment (ModEx) framework that integrates limited EMI data with machine learning (ML) and hydrologic modeling to improve process representation and guide field investigations. Sparse EMI surveys were scaled to the catchment scale using a Random Forest model, and the resulting resistivity fields were combined with nearby borehole constraints to parameterize a hydrologic model. The EMI‐informed hydrological simulations improved predictions of streamflow sustained by subsurface flow and shallow saturation patterns. By combining EMI data and ML with hydrologic modeling, the ModEx framework guides future subsurface surveys, providing a transferable and efficient strategy for data–model integration across diverse watersheds. Plain Language Summary Mapping the underground network of soil and rock that controls water is essential for predicting floods and droughts, but seeing underground is difficult and expensive. We cannot drill everywhere, so scientists use geophysical tools to scan broad areas. There are two key challenges: these geophysical scans are often sparse across the whole watershed, and the geophysical data is hard to translate into water‐related properties. We used artificial intelligence to solve these problems. We taught a computer to find patterns linking the limited geophysical data to the land surface properties. This allowed it to fill in the gaps and create a complete, useful subsurface map for the entire watershed. This new map improves hydrologic simulations, leading to more accurate predictions of water movement in the watershed. It also helps scientists build better models with less data and generates a priority map showing where to measure next, making future investigations more efficient. Key Points Limited EMI scaled with ML improves catchment‐scale subsurface parameterization for hydrologic models The framework integrates hydrologic modeling with limited geophysical data to support subsurface investigation design ModEx framework offers a transferable data–model integration strategy that quantifies and reduces uncertainty guiding watershed studies

Chen, Hang↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Upgrade of EMRALD to a Modern JavaScript-based Framework

Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) is a software tool developed at Idaho National Laboratory for researching the capabilities of dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It provides a simple interface to represent complex interactions often seen when developing dynamic models. EMRALD can also interface with other applications by modifying inputs, running, and using their results within EMRALD for dynamic and integrated assessment. This report goes over the work performed as part of the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program to upgrade the EMRALD software.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of a molecularly informed biogeochemical framework for reactive transport modeling of subsurface carbon inventories, transformations and fluxes (Final Report)

The overall objective of the project was to combine new molecular-level characterization strategies with soil carbon flux measurements to develop and evaluate model representations of subsurface carbon cycling. We expanded on existing studies in the East River watershed, Colorado, in collaboration with the Berkeley Lab Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA), SLAC Groundwater Quality SFA, and Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) to develop an elevation and vegetation gradient that is now the subject of long-term monitoring by the USGS. To achieve the overall objective, we combined field studies of soil respiration with laboratory analyses, ranging from spectroscopy to incubation studies. This combination of techniques enabled us to develop a new understanding of the drivers of high-elevation soil respiration. In the process, we developed three new modeling approaches that improve our ability to conceptualize and ultimately to represent soil respiration in numerical models. The first approach is a plot-scale transient inverse model that can be used to determine in situ CO 2 production rates from measured concentration profiles and surface fluxes. Application of this method revealed the importance of plant phenology and deep CO 2 production in moderating CO 2 fluxes to the atmosphere. The second modeling approach is a molecular-scale tool that enables spectroscopic and elemental data for carbon speciation to be transformed into functional group abundances, or the ‘SOC-fga model’. This method uniquely enables carbon speciation to be tracked within a reactive transport framework to partition carbon among different pathways and storage zones within the soil. The third modeling tool builds strongly on the previous approaches and captures the microbial processes driving heterotrophic respiration. This ‘dormancy model’ allows the native soil microbial population to respond transiently to the presence or absence of water in order to catalyze carbon respiration. This approach was also compared to the simpler and more widely used first-order model using two experimental datasets with different temporal and spatial resolutions. Our results illustrate that the simpler first order model provides a robust and efficient representation of deep (>1 meter) soil respiration, but that shallow soils, where most respiration occurs, require explicit representation of moisture-dependent activation and dormancy rates. By assessing soil organic carbon turnover at multiple scales, we see a complex array of controls emerge. Atte scale of a hillslope, spatial heterogeneity in soil respiration rates dominates and is uncorrelated with instantaneous soil moisture and plant community. At the profile scale, the balance between plant inputs and water availability is the dominant control. At the microbial to molecular scale, physiological processes associated with carbon use and carbon speciation are important controls. These scale-dependent controls emphasize the need for new modeling approaches that examine their interactions and hierarchies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian Optimization Framework for Imperfect Data or Models

Conventional Bayesian optimization methods implicitly assume that the data and model being optimized are “perfect.” This assumption leads to inaccurate posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) when applied to “imperfect” data or models. The new Bayesian optimization framework presented in this report provides a way to parameterize the effect of imperfections usually encountered in a prior PDF of generalized data or a model on the posterior PDF. The effects of imperfections are parameterized by a set of constraints imposed on the posterior expectation values of deviations between the data and the model and on their covariance matrix elements. A particular set of values for these constraints conveys an evaluator’s best estimate of the effect of imperfections on the corresponding posterior expectation values. When a prior PDF of generalized data is assumed to be normal, an expression for a posterior PDF satisfying an arbitrary set of constraints is derived analytically for linear models. An analogous iterative algorithm is given for nonlinear models. The corresponding posterior PDF should be used to estimate any posterior expectation values in the presence of imperfections parameterized by that set of constraints. A posterior PDF of a conventional Bayesian optimization method is recovered analytically when all evaluator-specified constraints are set to zero (i.e., in the absence of any imperfections). The analytical expressions derived in this report for normal PDFs and linear models were verified numerically by a Metropolis–Hastings Monte Carlo method. The methods presented herein could be applied to any kind of data or models, including differential cross-section data or integral benchmark experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assembling Multiple Models Within the RAVEN Framework

RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment) is an INL-developed software tool that can be used to identify and increase the safety margin in complex systems. As a generic software framework, RAVEN is designed to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. RAVEN is capable of investigating the system response as well as the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused toward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. RAVEN is currently able to construct multi-targets Reduced Order Models (ROMs), which are aimed to represent the response of a system (in a fixed configuration) for multiple Figures of Merits (FOMs) and time-dependent ROMs. These capabilities represent the initial steps for a larger implementation about the interaction of multiple models. In fact, in several cases, multiple models need to interface with each other since the initial conditions of one are dependent on the outcomes of another. To better understand the problem that here is solved, it is useful to consider a simple example: The following problem is considered: a weather forecast simulation code 'a' is used to compute the external (i.e. ambient) temperature in a certain location. A second model 'b' is inquired to compute the average temperature in a room having as boundary condition, among several others, the external ambient temperature. The response of the model 'b' depends on the outcome of the model 'a'. The reported example is only aimed to illustrate the reason why the creation of a framework to make interact different models is a key development for the advancement of RAVEN as a comprehensive calculation flow driver. Before reporting how the ensemble-models have been implemented, it is necessary to briefly describe the representative Model 'entities' that are available in RAVEN.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Flood Inundation Generation Mechanisms and Their Changes in 1953-2004 in Global Major River Basins

Despite the serious threats posed by floods, the driving mechanisms of floods are still not well understood. Here, we apply a physically-based inundation model coupled with a river routing model (Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport, MOSART) within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) framework to investigate flood inundation dynamics. After calibration using observed streamflow and satellite-derived flood extent, the model is used to simulate global flood inundation from 1953 to 2004. The mean date and seasonality of annual maximum flood, defined based on flood extent, exhibit significant regional differences across 16 major basins. Generally, soil moisture and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MMR) are the dominant drivers of flood in tropical basins while monthly maximum daily snowmelt (MMS) is the dominant driver in high latitude basins. From 1953-1982 to 1975-2004, significant changes in flood generation mechanisms are found in some basins such as Amazon, Lena, Yenisey, and Kolyma. Analysis of the rainfall seasonality and water balance at grid scale reveals a stronger rainfall seasonality in the Amazon during the later period that increases the synchrony between extreme rainfall and wet soil. With high antecedent soil moisture coinciding with rainfall, MMR contributes more to flood in the later period. Fewer extreme rainfall events and increasing soil moisture reduced the contribution of MMR and increased the role of MMS in floods in the Lena and Yenisey basins, respectively. Lastly, increased soil moisture and frequency of large MMS reduced the contribution of the latter to floods in the Kolyma basin.

Mao, Yuna↗

NREL-Led Team Improves and Accelerates Battery Design [Fact Sheet]

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is leading some of the best minds from U.S. auto manufacturers, battery developers, and automotive simulation tool developers in a $\$$20 million project to accelerate the development of battery packs and thus the wider adoption of electric-drive vehicles. The Computer-Aided Engineering for Electric Drive Vehicle Batteries (CAEBAT) collaboration is developing sophisticated software tools to help improve and accelerate battery design and boost the performance and consumer appeal of electric-drive vehicles with the ultimate goal of diminishing petroleum consumption and polluting emissions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Methodology and Application of Physical Security Effectiveness Based on Dynamic Force-on-Force Modeling

This report describes the research and development being performed at INL towards a dynamic modeling and simulation framework to enable physical security optimization at commercial nuclear power plants. The framework is based on the dynamic modeling tool EMRALD and is demonstrated for applications that can result in physical security optimization. Two main applications are presented: 1. Integrating FLEX portable equipment performance with FOF models of a plant’s physical security posture, and 2. Location optimization of bullet resistant enclosure. The generic framework for modeling FLEX portable equipment is described in detail, followed by a case study modeling an adversarial attack aimed at causing a radiological release by sabotaging the plant’s power supply and its ultimate heat sink capabilities at a hypothetical PWR. Two distinct FLEX deployment strategies, series and parallel, are modeled with distinct timelines. The results of the adversarial attack modeled in a commercial FOF tool, AVERT, are integrated with the FLEX deployment model in EMRALD. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the distribution of the timeline in FLEX deployment strategies. Thermal-hydraulic analysis of FLEX performance is performed in RELAP5 and integrated with the EMRALD simulations to provide more realistic timelines in the models. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, deployment of FLEX equipment can result in a significantly high likelihood of preventing radiological release. The modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the NPPs to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security. The objective of location optimization of BRE is to determine the best location in the plant for a new BRE being planned by the plant to enhance their physical security effectiveness. The plant physical security FOF model is integrated with EMRALD that performs Monte Carlo simulation to run different attack scenarios and a discrete set of potential BRE locations. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the most effective location for the BRE. The optimization approach can be extended to wide applications such as location optimization of remotely operated weapons and other strategic fixed assets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Virtual Engineering Software Framework for Integrated Biomass Conversion Modeling

This presentation covers the design and implementation of a software tool to systematically connect computational models of unit operations to simulate an integrated process of low-temperature conversion of biomass to fuel. This virtual engineering (VE) software was designed with the overarching goal of connecting unit models written in various programming languages and requiring different computational resources within a single, flexible framework. The models and features currently considered for the VE library include mechanistic models for pretreatment, enzymatic hydrolysis, and aerobic bioreaction; high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for enzymatic hydrolysis and aerobic bioreaction; and the capability to perform techno-economic analyses (TEA) using Aspen Plus, a commercial software package. The CFD models require access to high-performance computing (HPC) resources, so in addition to handling multiple programming languages and interfaces, the VE software must also be capable of interacting with an HPC scheduler to submit, run, and post-process jobs. Using the Python programming language, a new VE software package has been developed that contains functionality to manage the input-output communication between various unit models, schedule simulations to run on NREL's HPC and analyze those results, and interface with existing TEA software workflows. A Jupyter-notebook GUI was also created to solicit user input and provide documentation. In cases where multiple models for a particular unit-operation exist, selection between models is accomplished through a simple checkbox, with the appropriate inputs and outputs being parsed and converted seamlessly in the background. Each operation makes use of a different programming language, but the flow of information from pretreatment to enzymatic hydrolysis to bioreaction is managed with an intuitive, centralized file-communication strategy. In this talk, the programming approach and implementation details of the notebook are presented for multiple possibilities of the conversion process, including a demonstration of the ability to manage HPC resources. Additionally, an example of a sensitivity study of treatment parameters governing the overall conversion outcome is shown which highlights the ease of defining new problems using the VE Notebook workflow and leads into a discussion of ongoing work to enable outer-loop optimization studies.

biofuel↗