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Immersion Freezing in Particle-Based Aerosol-Cloud Microphysics: A Probabilistic Perspective on Singular and Time-Dependent Models

Cloud droplets containing immersed ice-nucleating particles (INPs) may freeze at temperatures above the homogeneous freezing threshold temperature in a process referred to as immersion freezing. In modeling studies, immersion freezing is often described using either so-called “singular” or “time-dependent” parameterizations. Here, we compare both approaches and discuss them in the context of probabilistic particle-based (super-droplet) cloud microphysics modeling. First, using a box model, we contrast how both parameterizations respond to idealized ambient cooling rate profiles and quantify the impact of the polydispersity of the immersed surface spectrum on the frozen fraction evolution. Presented simulations highlight that the singular approach, constituting a time-integrated form of a more general time-dependent approach, is only accurate under a limited range of ambient cooling rates. The time-dependent approach is free from this limitation. Second, using a prescribed-flow two-dimensional cloud model, we illustrate the macroscopic differences in the evolution in time of ice particle concentrations in simulations with flow regimes relevant to ambient cloud conditions. The flow-coupled aerosol-budget-resolving simulations highlight the benefits and challenges of modeling cloud condensation nuclei activation and immersion freezing on insoluble ice nuclei with super-particle methods. The challenges stem, on the one hand, from heterogeneous ice nucleation being contingent on the presence of relatively sparse immersed INPs, and on the other hand, from the need to represent a vast population of particles with relatively few so-called super particles (each representing a multiplicity of real particles). We discuss the critical role of the sampling strategy for particle attributes, including the INP size, the freezing temperature (for singular scheme) and the multiplicity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The origin of water vapor rings in tropical oceanic cold pools

Tropical deep convection over the ocean is found to grow preferentially from thermodynamically preconditioned regions of high specific humidity and, thus, high moist static energy. Because of this, rings of enhanced specific humidity at the leading edges of evaporatively driven cold pools have recently received considerable attention. The prevailing theory explains these rings by the water vapor source from the evaporation of rain drops below cloud base. Their origin is reported on in this letter using large-eddy simulations of individual cumulus clouds that rise into a tropical atmosphere over ocean. It is demonstrated that - in contrast to this theory - water vapor rings are primarily explained by surface latent heat fluxes rather than by the evaporation of rain. This result implies that conceptual models used in subgrid-scale parameterizations of deep convection should consider the formation of rings of increased specific humidity by the cold-pool-induced enhancement of surface fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The effect of large-scale model time step and multiscale coupling frequency on cloud climatology, vertical structure, and rainfall extremes in a superparameterized GCM

The effect of global climate model (GCM) time step—which also controls how frequently global and embedded cloud resolving scales are coupled—is examined in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model ver 3.0. Systematic bias reductions of time-mean shortwave cloud forcing (~10 W/m 2 ) and longwave cloud forcing (~5 W/m 2 ) occur as scale coupling frequency increases, but with systematically increasing rainfall variance and extremes throughout the tropics. An overarching change in the vertical structure of deep tropical convection, favoring more bottom-heavy deep convection as a global model time step is reduced may help orchestrate these responses. The weak temperature gradient approximation is more faithfully satisfied when a high scale coupling frequency (a short global model time step) is used. These findings are distinct from the global model time step sensitivities of conventionally parameterized GCMs and have implications for understanding emergent behaviors of multiscale deep convective organization in superparameterized GCMs. Lastly, the results may also be useful for helping to tune them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lagrangian Timescales of Southern Ocean Upwelling in a Hierarchy of Model Resolutions

Here, we study upwelling pathways and timescales of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) in a hierarchy of models using a Lagrangian particle tracking method. Lagrangian timescales of CDW upwelling decrease from 87 years to 31 years to 17 years as the ocean resolution is refined from 1° to 0.25° to 0.1°. We attribute some of the differences in timescale to the strength of the eddy fields, as demonstrated by temporally degrading high-resolution model velocity fields. Consistent with the timescale dependence, we find that an average Lagrangian particle completes 3.2 circumpolar loops in the 1° model in comparison to 0.9 loops in the 0.1° model. In conclusion, these differences suggest that advective timescales and thus interbasin merging of upwelling CDW may be overestimated by coarse-resolution models, potentially affecting the skill of centennial scale climate change projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Extrapolating Contaminant Effects from Individuals to Populations: A Case Study on Nanoparticle Toxicity to Daphnia Fed Environmentally Relevant Food Levels

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is charged with assessing the likelihood a chemical will have adverse environmental or ecological effects. When assessing the risk of a potential contaminant to biological organisms, ecologists are most concerned with the sustainability of populations of organisms, rather than protecting every individual. However, ERA most commonly relies on data on the effect of a potential contaminant on individuals because these experiments are more feasible than costly population-level exposures. In this work, we address the challenge of extrapolating these individual-level results to predict population-level effects. Previous per-capita population growth rate estimates calculated from individual-level exposures of Daphnia pulicaria to silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) at different food rations predict a critical daily food requirement for daphnid populations exposed to 200 μg/L AgNPs to avoid extinction. To test this, we exposed daphnid populations to the same AgNP concentration at three different food inputs, with the lowest ration close to the extinction threshold predicted from data on individuals. The two populations with the higher food inputs persisted, and the population with the lowest food input went extinct after 50 days but did persist through two generations. Further, we demonstrate that we can extrapolate between these levels of biological organization by parameterizing an individual-level biomass model with data on individuals’ response to AgNPs and using these parameters to predict the outcome for control and AgNP-exposed populations. Key to successful extrapolation is careful modeling of temporal changes in resource density, driven by both the experimental protocols and feedback from the consumer. The implication for ecotoxicology is that estimates of extinction thresholds based on studies of individuals may be reliable predictors of population outcomes, but only with careful treatment of resource dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stability Analysis of Interface Conditions for Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling

In this paper, we analyze the stability of different coupling strategies for multidomain PDEs that arise in general circulation models used in climate simulations. We focus on fully coupled ocean–atmosphere models that are needed to represent and understand the complicated interactions of these two systems, becoming increasingly important in climate change assessment in recent years. Numerical stability issues typically arise because of different time-stepping strategies applied to the coupled PDE system. In particular, the contributing factors include using large time steps, lack of accurate interface flux, and single-iteration coupling. We investigate the stability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere models for various interface conditions such as the Dirichlet–Neumann condition and the bulk interface condition, which is unique to climate modeling. By analyzing a simplified model, we demonstrate here how the parameterization of the bulk condition and other numerical and physical parameters affect the coupling stability and establish stability conditions for different coupling strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The role of remote sensing in process-scaling studies of managed forest ecosystems

Sustaining forest resources requires a better understanding of forest ecosystem processes, and how management decisions and climate change may affect these processes in the future. While plot and inventory data provide our most detailed information on forest carbon, energy, and water cycling, applying this understanding to broader spatial and temporal domains requires scaling approaches. Remote sensing provides a powerful resource for "upscaling" process understanding to regional and continental domains. The increased range of available remote sensing modalities, including interferometric radar, lidar, and hyperspectral imagery, allows the retrieval of a broad range of forest attributes. This paper reviews the application of remote sensing for upscaling forest attributes from the plot scale to regional domains, with particular emphasis on how remote sensing products can support parameterization and validation of ecosystem process models. We focus on four key ecological attributes of forests: composition, structure, productivity and evapotranspiration, and disturbance dynamics. For each attribute, we discuss relevant remote sensing technologies, provide examples of their application, and critically evaluate both strengths and challenges associated with their use. Published by Elsevier B.V.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal loading effects on chalk hydromechanical behavior for nuclear waste disposal

Safe disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste depends on host rock stability under thermal, hydrological, and mechanical stresses. This study investigates the effect of thermal loading on mechanical behavior of the shallowly buried Ghareb formation chalk through triaxial and hydrostatic constant strain rate and creep tests at temperatures up to 100 ˚C and effective pressures up to 20.7 MPa. Experimental results show that thermal loading reduces the elastic moduli of chalk by 50–75%, and a transition occurs above 60 ˚C where creep rates increase rapidly. Water saturation nearly doubles the thermally induced strain compared to dry conditions and strongly decreases material rigidity. Thermal loading also leads to significant pore pressure increases under undrained conditions and leads to reductions in the apparent permeability during drained conditions. Laboratory experimental data were used to parameterize and develop a preliminary constitutive model for predicting future deformation during repository operations in the Ghareb. The strongly coupled effects – mechanical weakening, fluid pressure fluctuations, and permeability modification – demonstrate that elevated repository temperatures will have a pronounced effect on the near field Ghareb behavior during waste disposal operations. The findings indicate that the coupled interactions must be considered in predictive models and repository design to ensure long-term nuclear waste isolation and safety.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Mapping foliar photosynthetic capacity in sub-tropical and tropical forests with UAS-based imaging spectroscopy: Scaling from leaf to canopy

Accurate understanding of the variability in foliar physiological traits across landscapes is critical to improve parameterization and evaluation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that seek to represent the response of terrestrial ecosystems to a changing climate. Numerous studies suggest imaging spectroscopy can characterize foliar biochemical and morphological traits at the canopy scale, but there is only limited evidence for retrieving canopy photosynthetic capacity (e.g., maximum carboxylation rate, V c,max and maximum electron transport rate, J max ). Moreover, the effect of canopy structure within forest communities on scaling up spectra-trait relationships from leaf to canopy level is not well known. To advance the spectra-trait approach and enable the estimation of key traits using remote sensing, we collected imaging spectroscopy data from an Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS) platform over two forest sites in China (a subtropical forest in Mt. Dinghu and a tropical rainforest in Xishuangbanna). At these sites, we also collected ground measurements of leaf spectra and traits, including biochemical (leaf nitrogen, phosphorus, chlorophyll, and water content), morphological (leaf mass per area, LMA) and physiological (V c,max25 and J max25 ) traits (n=135 tree-crowns from 42 species across two sites). Using a partial least-squares regression (PLSR) approach, we built and tested spectra-trait models with repeated cross-validation. The spectral models developed with leaf spectra were directly transferred to canopy spectra to evaluate the effect of canopy structure. Here we further applied canopy spectral models to map these traits at individual tree-crown scale. The results demonstrate that (1) UAS-based canopy spectra can be used to estimate V c,max (R 2 =0.55, nRMSE=11.79%), Jmax (R 2 =0.54, nRMSE=12.34%), and five additional foliar traits (R 2 =0.38-0.60, nRMSE=10.11-13.56%) at the tree-crown scale with demonstrated generalizability across two sites; (2) canopy structure strongly affects the spectratrait relationships from leaf to canopy level, but the effects vary considerably across foliar traits and cannot be well captured by the 4SAIL canopy radiative transfer model. UAS-based imaging spectroscopy maps large variability in all foliar traits (including physiological traits) with spatially explicit information, reproducing the field-observed inter- and intra-specific variations. These results demonstrate the capability of using UAS-based imaging spectroscopy for characterizing the variability of foliar physiological traits at individual tree-crown scale over forest landscapes and highlight the similar generalizability but different biophysical mechanisms underlying spectra-trait relationships at leaf and canopy levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning-Driven Solvent Screening for Biobased 2,3-Butanediol Extraction

Biobased 2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is a valuable biomass-derived chemical due to its versatility in being transformed into a wide variety of products. However, the separation and purification of 2,3-BDO from fermentation broth remain a significant challenge owing to its high boiling point and hydrophilic nature. Herein, we developed a machine learning (ML)-based screening workflow that uses molecular calculations as training data and requires only a small number of experimental measurements for validation to identify alternative solvent candidates for the liquid–liquid extraction (LLE) of 2,3-BDO from aqueous solution. In particular, 130 density functional theory (DFT) calculations with the implicit solvation method not only built a correlation between the computational partition coefficient and the experimental distribution coefficient of 2,3-BDO but also parameterized an Extra-Trees ML model to screen the distribution coefficient for a wider range of 6717 organic solvents. The experimental measurements of only 24 solvents were needed to validate the computational results. A list of 50 prioritized solvents was proposed for 2,3-BDO LLE, and seven additional experimental measurements were conducted to further verify our selected solvents. The impact of the extraction temperature and solvent-to-feed ratio was also investigated for selected solvents in experiments. Furthermore, this work suggested alternative solvents for 2,3-BDO LLE and proposed a versatile workflow that requires fewer experiments and can be applied to a broader range of LLE studies.

Extraction↗

Can Biogeochemical Tracer Observations Constrain Southern Ocean Diapycnal Mixing Rates?

Abstract Direct observations of background diapycnal mixing rates in the Southern Ocean (SO) are limited spatially and temporally, making the choice of an appropriate value to parameterize this mixing in Earth system models a challenge. However, the deployment of Argo floats throughout the SO has provided an extensive range of observations of both physical and biogeochemical parameters. We use an ocean state estimate run with various background diapycnal mixing coefficients to assess if biogeochemical tracer observations can be used to better constrain SO diapycnal mixing rates. We find that vertical tracer distributions in the SO are highly sensitive to the rate of background diapycnal mixing and can provide an upper limit on background mixing rates. This demonstrates the importance of biogeochemical tracer observations throughout the full depth of the water column to validate ocean models.

Ellison, Elizabeth [The Australian National Univer↗

Solute embrittlement of SiC

The energies and stresses associated with the decohesion of β-SiC in the presence of mobile Pd and Ag impurities are studied from first principles. Density functional theory calculations are parameterized with a generalized cohesive zone model and are analyzed within a thermodynamic framework that accounts for realistic boundary conditions in the presence of mobile impurities. We find that Pd impurities will embrittle SiC when Pd is in equilibrium with metallic Pd precipitates. Our thermodynamic analysis predicts that Pd embrittles SiC by substantially reducing the maximum stress of decohesion as a result of a phase transition between decohering planes involving an influx of Pd atoms. The methods presented in this work can be applied to study the thermodynamics of decohesion of SiC in other aggressive environments containing oxygen and water, for example, and yield environment dependent cohesive zone models for use in continuum approaches to study crack propagation and fracture.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Direct measurement of storage and loss behavior in AFM force–distance experiments using the modified Fourier transformation

Force–distance curve experiments are commonly performed in atomic force microscopy (AFM) to obtain the viscoelastic characteristics of materials, such as the storage and loss moduli or compliances. The classic methods used to obtain these characteristics consist of fitting a viscoelastic material model to the experimentally obtained AFM data. Here, we demonstrate a new method that utilizes the modified discrete Fourier transform to approximate the storage and loss behavior of a material directly from the data, without the need for a fit. Additionally, one may still fit a model to the resulting storage and loss behavior if a parameterized description of the material is desired. In contrast to fitting the data to a model chosen a priori, departing from a model-free description of the material's frequency behavior guides the selection of the model, such that the user may choose the one that is most appropriate for the particular material under study. To this end, we also include modified Fourier domain descriptions of commonly used viscoelastic models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Scalable learning of potentials to predict time-dependent Hartree–Fock dynamics

We propose a framework to learn the time-dependent Hartree–Fock (TDHF) inter-electronic potential of a molecule from its electron density dynamics. Although the entire TDHF Hamiltonian, including the inter-electronic potential, can be computed from first principles, we use this problem as a testbed to develop strategies that can be applied to learn a priori unknown terms that arise in other methods/approaches to quantum dynamics, e.g., emerging problems such as learning exchange–correlation potentials for time-dependent density functional theory. We develop, train, and test three models of the TDHF inter-electronic potential, each parameterized by a four-index tensor of size up to 60 × 60 × 60 × 60. Two of the models preserve Hermitian symmetry, while one model preserves an eight-fold permutation symmetry that implies Hermitian symmetry. Across seven different molecular systems, we find that accounting for the deeper eight-fold symmetry leads to the best-performing model across three metrics: training efficiency, test set predictive power, and direct comparison of true and learned inter-electronic potentials. All three models, when trained on ensembles of field-free trajectories, generate accurate electron dynamics predictions even in a field-on regime that lies outside the training set. To enable our models to scale to large molecular systems, we derive expressions for Jacobian-vector products that enable iterative, matrix-free training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

THE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF MOLECULAR GAS IN PLANET-FORMING ZONES: A CRIRES SPECTRO-ASTROMETRIC SURVEY

We present a spectro-astrometric survey of molecular gas in the inner regions of 16 protoplanetary disks using CRIRES, the high-resolution infrared imaging spectrometer on the Very Large Telescope. Spectro-astrometry with CRIRES measures the spatial extent of line emission to sub-milliarcsecond precision, or <0.2 AU at the distance of the observed targets. The sample consists of gas-rich disks surrounding stars with spectral types ranging from K to A. The properties of the spectro-astrometric signals divide the sources into two distinct phenomenological classes: one that shows clear Keplerian astrometric spectra and one in which the astrometric signatures are dominated by gas with strong non-Keplerian (radial) motions. Similarly to the near-infrared continuum emission, as determined by interferometry, we find that the size of the CO line emitting region in the Keplerian sources obeys a size-luminosity relation as R{sub CO}{proportional_to}L{sup 0.5}{sub *}. The non-Keplerian spectro-astrometric signatures are likely indicative of the presence of wide-angle disk winds. The central feature of the winds is a strong sub-Keplerian velocity field due to conservation of angular momentum as the wind pressure drives the gas outward. We construct a parameterized two-dimensional disk+wind model that reproduces the observed characteristics of the observed CO spectra and astrometry. The modeled winds indicate mass-loss rates of {approx}> 10{sup -10} to 10{sup -8} M{sub sun} yr{sup -1}. We suggest a unifying model in which all disks have slow molecular winds, but where the magnitude of the mass-loss rate determines the degree to which the mid-infrared molecular lines are dominated by the wind relative to the Keplerian disk surface.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SOLAR CONSTRAINTS ON ASYMMETRIC DARK MATTER

The dark matter content of the universe is likely to be a mixture of matter and antimatter, perhaps comparable to the measured asymmetric mixture of baryons and antibaryons. During the early stages of the universe, the dark matter particles are produced in a process similar to baryogenesis, and dark matter freezeout depends on the dark matter asymmetry and the annihilation cross section (s-wave and p-wave annihilation channels) of particles and antiparticles. In these {eta}-parameterized asymmetric dark matter ({eta}ADM) models, the dark matter particles have an annihilation cross section close to the weak interaction cross section, and a value of dark matter asymmetry {eta} close to the baryon asymmetry {eta}{sub B}. Furthermore, we assume that dark matter scattering of baryons, namely, the spin-independent scattering cross section, is of the same order as the range of values suggested by several theoretical particle physics models used to explain the current unexplained events reported in the DAMA/LIBRA, CoGeNT, and CRESST experiments. Here, we constrain {eta}ADM by investigating the impact of such a type of dark matter on the evolution of the Sun, namely, the flux of solar neutrinos and helioseismology. We find that dark matter particles with a mass smaller than 15 GeV, a spin-independent scattering cross section on baryons of the order of a picobarn, and an {eta}-asymmetry with a value in the interval 10{sup -12}-10{sup -10}, would induce a change in solar neutrino fluxes in disagreement with current neutrino flux measurements. This result is also confirmed by helioseismology data. A natural consequence of this model is suppressed annihilation, thereby reducing the tension between indirect and direct dark matter detection experiments, but the model also allows a greatly enhanced annihilation cross section. All the cosmological {eta}ADM scenarios that we discuss have a relic dark matter density {Omega}h {sup 2} and baryon asymmetry {eta}{sub B} in agreement with the current WMAP measured values, {Omega}{sub DM} h {sup 2} = 0.1109 {+-} 0.0056 and {eta}{sub B} = 0.88 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -10}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of scintillation processes in NaI(Tl)

Developing a comprehensive understanding of the processes that govern the scintillation behavior of inorganic scintillators provides a pathway to optimize current scintillators and allows for the science-driven search for new scintillator materials. Recent experimental data on the excitation density dependence of the light yield of inorganic scintillators presents an opportunity to incorporate parameterized interactions between excitations in scintillation models and thus enable more realistic simulations of the nonproportionality of inorganic scintillators. Therefore, a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model of elementary scintillation processes in NaI(Tl) is developed in this work to simulate the kinetics of scintillation for a range of temperatures and Tl concentrations as well as the scintillation efficiency as a function of excitation density. The ability of the KMC model to reproduce available experimental data allows for elucidating the elementary processes that give rise to the kinetics and efficiency of scintillation observed experimentally for a range of conditions.

Kerisit, Sebastien N.↗

Importance of biophysical effects on climate warming mitigation potential of biofuel crops over the conterminous United States

Abstract Current quantification of climate warming mitigation potential ( CWMP ) of biomass‐derived energy has focused primarily on its biogeochemical effects. This study used site‐level observations of carbon, water, and energy fluxes of biofuel crops to parameterize and evaluate the community land model ( CLM ) and estimate CO 2 fluxes, surface energy balance, soil carbon dynamics of corn ( Zea mays ), switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ), and miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) ecosystems across the conterminous United States considering different agricultural management practices and land‐use scenarios. We find that neglecting biophysical effects underestimates the CWMP of transitioning from croplands and marginal lands to energy crops. Biogeochemical effects alone result in changes in carbon storage of −1.9, 49.1, and 69.3 g C m −2 y −1 compared to 20.5, 78.5, and 96.2 g C m −2 y −1 when considering both biophysical and biogeochemical effects for corn, switchgrass, and miscanthus, respectively. The biophysical contribution to CWMP is dominated by changes in latent heat fluxes. Using the model to optimize growth conditions through fertilization and irrigation increases the CWMP further to 79.6, 98.3, and 118.8 g C m −2 y −1 , respectively, representing the upper threshold for CWMP . Results also show that the CWMP over marginal lands is lower than that over croplands. This study highlights that neglecting the biophysical effects of altered surface energy and water balance underestimates the CWMP of transitioning to bioenergy crops at regional scales.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗