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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Statistical Analysis of a Large Sample Size Pyroshock Test Data Set Including Post Flight Data Assessment

The Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra spacecraft was launched on an Atlas IIAS launch vehicle on its mission to observe planet Earth in late 1999. Prior to launch, the new design of the spacecraft's pyroshock separation system was characterized by a series of 13 separation ground tests. The analysis methods used to evaluate this unusually large amount of shock data will be discussed in this paper, with particular emphasis on population distributions and finding statistically significant families of data, leading to an overall shock separation interface level. The wealth of ground test data also allowed a derivation of a Mission Assurance level for the flight. All of the flight shock measurements were below the EOS Terra Mission Assurance level thus contributing to the overall success of the EOS Terra mission. The effectiveness of the statistical methodology for characterizing the shock interface level and for developing a flight Mission Assurance level from a large sample size of shock data is demonstrated in this paper.

Hughes, William O.↗
DOE OSTI2014

En route to Background Independence: Broken split-symmetry, and how to restore it with bi-metric average actions

The most momentous requirement a quantum theory of gravity must satisfy is Background Independence, necessitating in particular an ab initio derivation of the arena all non-gravitational physics takes place in, namely spacetime. Using the background field technique, this requirement translates into the condition of an unbroken split-symmetry connecting the (quantized) metric fluctuations to the (classical) background metric. If the regularization scheme used violates split-symmetry during the quantization process it is mandatory to restore it in the end at the level of observable physics. In this paper we present a detailed investigation of split-symmetry breaking and restoration within the Effective Average Action (EAA) approach to Quantum Einstein Gravity (QEG) with a special emphasis on the Asymptotic Safety conjecture. In particular we demonstrate for the first time in a non-trivial setting that the two key requirements of Background Independence and Asymptotic Safety can be satisfied simultaneously. Carefully disentangling fluctuation and background fields, we employ a ‘bi-metric’ ansatz for the EAA and project the flow generated by its functional renormalization group equation on a truncated theory space spanned by two separate Einstein–Hilbert actions for the dynamical and the background metric, respectively. A new powerful method is used to derive the corresponding renormalization group (RG) equations for the Newton- and cosmological constant, both in the dynamical and the background sector. We classify and analyze their solutions in detail, determine their fixed point structure, and identify an attractor mechanism which turns out instrumental in the split-symmetry restoration. We show that there exists a subset of RG trajectories which are both asymptotically safe and split-symmetry restoring: In the ultraviolet they emanate from a non-Gaussian fixed point, and in the infrared they loose all symmetry violating contributions inflicted on them by the non-invariant functional RG equation. As an application, we compute the scale dependent spectral dimension which governs the fractal properties of the effective QEG spacetimes at the bi-metric level. Earlier tests of the Asymptotic Safety conjecture almost exclusively employed ‘single-metric truncations’ which are blind towards the difference between quantum and background fields. We explore in detail under which conditions they can be reliable, and we discuss how the single-metric based picture of Asymptotic Safety needs to be revised in the light of the new results. We shall conclude that the next generation of truncations for quantitatively precise predictions (of critical exponents, for instance) is bound to be of the bi-metric type. - Highlights: • The Asymptotic Safety scenario in quantum gravity is explored. • A bi-metric generalization of the Einstein–Hilbert truncation is investigated. • We find that Background Independence can coexist with Asymptotic Safety. • RG trajectories restoring (background-quantum) split-symmetry are constructed. • The degree of validity of single-metric truncations is critically assessed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

The reaction between the bromine atom and the water trimer: high level theoretical studies

Three different reaction pathways are found for the reaction of bromine atom (Br) with the lowest-energy structure of the water trimer [uud-(H 2 O) 3 ], initially using the MPW1K-DFT method. The three bromine pathways have closely related geometries and energetics, analogous to those found for the fluorine and chlorine reactions. Here, the lowest-energy pathway of the Br + uud-(H 2 O) 3 reaction was further investigated using the “gold standard” CCSD(T) method and the correlation-consistent basis sets up to cc-pVQZ(-PP). Based on the CCSD(T)/cc-pVQZ(-PP)//CCSD(T)/cc-pVTZ(-PP) results, the Br + (H 2 O) 3 reaction is endothermic by 33.3 kcal mol -1 . The classical barrier height is 29.0 kcal mol -1 between the reactants and the exit complex, and there is no barrier for the reverse reaction. The Br···(H 2 O) 3 entrance complex is found to lie 4.7 kcal mol -1 below the separated reactants, and the HBr···(H 2 O) 2 OH exit complex is bound by 6.4 kcal mol -1 relative to the separated products. This potential energy profile is further corrected by the zero point energies and spin–orbit coupling effects. Structurally, the Br + (H 2 O) 3 stationary points can be derived from those of the simpler Br + (H 2 O) 2 reaction by judiciously appending a H 2 O molecule. The Br + (H 2 O) 3 potential energy profile is compared with the Br + (H 2 O) 2 and Br + H 2 O reactions, as well as to the valence isoelectronic Cl + (H 2 O) 3 and F + (H 2 O) 3 systems. It is reasonable to expect that the reactions between the bromine atom and larger water clusters would be similar to the Br + (H 2 O) 3 reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

A scalable stochastic programming approach for the design of flexible systems

We study the problem of designing systems in order to minimize cost while meeting a given flexibility target. Flexibility is attained by enforcing a joint chance constraint, which ensures that the system will exhibit feasible operation with a given target probability level. Unfortunately, joint chance constraints are complicated mathematical objects that often need to be reformulated using mixed-integer programming (MIP) techniques. In this work, we cast the design problem as a conflict resolution problem that seeks to minimize cost while maximizing flexibility. We propose a purely continuous relaxation of this problem that provides a significantly more scalable approach relative to MIP methods and show that the formulation delivers solutions that closely approximate the Pareto set of the original joint chance-constrained problem.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2013

Characterizing the Range of Extracellular Protein Post-Translational Modifications in a Cellulose-Degrading Bacteria Using a Multiple Proteolyic Digestion/Peptide Fragmentation Approach

Post-translational modifications (PTMs) are known to play a significant role in many biological functions. The focus of this study is to characterize the post-translational modifications of the cellulosome protein complex used by the bacterium Clostridium thermocellum to better understand how this protein machine is tuned for enzymatic cellulose solubilization. To enhance comprehensive characterization, the extracellular cellulosome proteins were analyzed using multiple proteolytic digests (trypsin, Lys-C, Glu-C) and multiple fragmentation techniques (collisionally-activated dissociation, electron transfer dissociation, decision tree). As expected, peptide and protein identifications were increased by utilizing alternate proteases and fragmentation methods, in addition to the increase in protein sequence coverage. The complementarity of these experiments also allowed for a global exploration of PTMs associated with the cellulosome based upon a set of defined PTMs that included methylation, oxidation, acetylation, phosphorylation, and signal peptide cleavage. In these experiments, 85 modified peptides corresponding to 28 cellulosome proteins were identified. Many of these modifications were located in active cellulolytic or structural domains of the cellulosome proteins, suggesting a level of possible regulatory control of protein function in various cellulotyic conditions. The use of multiple enzymes and fragmentation technologies allowed for independent verification of PTMs in different experiments, thus leading to increased confidence in PTM identifications.

Dykstra, Andrew B↗
DOE OSTI2025

Similarity Metric for Data Optimization and Efficient Training of Reactive Machine Learning Force Fields for Hydrocarbon Radiolysis

Radiolysis is a common approach to sterilize polymers, chemically modify them for upcycling, and accelerate their decomposition for recycling purposes. Reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide a powerful tool to generate atomic-level trajectories of the reactive processes and quantify radiolytic chemical degradation pathways. For this, machine learning (ML) surrogate models for reactive force fields with quantum mechanical accuracy are now widely used, which require ML training data sets that can provide information on atomic environments for target chemical systems. However, radiolysis chemistry can be highly complex and diverse, which poses significant challenges for generating training data to parametrize ML models. In this regard, we developed a method for optimizing the training data set using a cosine similarity metric to help guide training set selection for radiolysis of polyethylene, a model hydrocarbon polymer, as well as to enhance the transferability of our reactive ML force field (MLFF) to a variety of molecular and polymeric systems. Our approach performs atom-by-atom comparisons between local atomic environments to pinpoint important data points associated with rare and localized events, such as radiolysis damage within structures. We apply this approach to train the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) MLFF model, which expresses the atomic interaction potentials in terms of linear combinations of many-body Chebyshev polynomials. We first show that our method can reduce our training set size by ∼70% while improving overall accuracy compared to more standard MD model fitting approaches. We then validate our optimum model against diverse hydrocarbon simulation data, including simple alkanes and systems with unsaturated carbon bonds, over a wide range of thermodynamic conditions. Finally, we use our ChIMES model to perform MD simulations of radiolytic damage with large-scale systems that help avoid system size effects. Overall, our approach yields an MD force field that retains most of the accuracy of the underlying quantum method while yielding many orders of improvement in computational efficiency. In conclusion, our efforts will have impact on future hydrocarbon polymer radiolysis studies, where the chemical details of the polymer–radiation interactions can have a strong effect on the resulting products observed in experiments.

Hydrocarbons↗
DOE OSTI2019

Assessing Electronic Structure Methods for Long-Range Three-Body Dispersion Interactions: Analysis and Calculations on Well-Separated Metal Atom Trimers

Three-body dispersion interactions are much weaker than their two-body counterpart. However, their importance grows quickly as the number of interacting monomers rises. To explore the numerical performance of correlation methods for long-range three-body dispersion, we performed calculations on eight very simple dispersion-dominated model metal trimers: Na 3 , Mg 3 , Zn 3 , Cd 3 , Hg 3 , Cu 3 , Ag 3 , and Au 3 . One encouraging aspect is that relatively small basis sets of augmented triple-ζ size appear to be adequate for three-body dispersion in the long-range. Coupled cluster calculations were performed at high levels to assess MP3, CCSD, CCSD(T), empirical density functional theory dispersion (D3), and the many-body dispersion (MBD) approach. We found that the accuracy of CCSD(T) was generally significantly lower than for two-body interactions, with errors sometimes reaching 20% in the investigated systems, while CCSD and particularly MP3 were generally more erratic. MBD is found to perform better than D3 at large distances, whereas the opposite is true at shorter distances. When computing reference numbers for three-body dispersion, care should be taken to appropriately represent the effect of the connected triple excitations, which are significant in most cases and incompletely approximated by CCSD(T).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Curated Collection of More than 20,000 Experimentally Reported One-Dimensional Metal–Organic Frameworks

Herein, a collection of more than 20,000 experimentally derived crystal structures for metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) that do not have two- or three-dimensional covalently bonded networks has been developed from the materials available at the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. Of these 20,000 1D MOFs, more than 12,000 structures have been verified to be solvent-free and in exact agreement with the stoichiometry of the synthesized materials. More than 10% of the complete data set comprise materials including two or more distinct metals. The band gaps of more than 12,000 1D MOFs have been computed at the density functional theory-generalized gradient approximation level, finding more than 2000 materials that have a zero band gap. Molecular simulations of CH4 adsorption in a small number of 1D MOFs indicated that adsorbate-induced deformation plays a significant role in determining adsorption isotherms in these materials. As a result, methods that have been used previously for high-throughput predictions of molecular adsorption in 3D MOFs are not suitable for 1D MOFs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

REVISITING SPITZER TRANSIT OBSERVATIONS WITH INDEPENDENT COMPONENT ANALYSIS: NEW RESULTS FOR THE GJ 436 SYSTEM

We analyzed four Spitzer/IRAC observations at 3.6 and 4.5 μm of the primary transit of the exoplanet GJ 436b, by using blind source separation techniques. These observations are important for investigating the atmospheric composition of the planet GJ 436b. Previous analyses claimed strong inter-epoch variations of the transit parameters due to stellar variability, casting doubts on the possibility of conclusively extracting an atmospheric signal. Those analyses also reported discrepant results, hence the necessity of this reanalysis. The method we used has been proposed in Morello et al. to analyze 3.6 μm transit light curves of the hot Jupiter HD 189733b. It performes an Independent Component Analysis on a set of pixel light curves, i.e., time series read by individual pixels, from the same photometric observation. Our method only assumes the independence of instrumental and astrophysical signals, and therefore guarantees a higher degree of objectivity compared to parametric detrending techniques published in the literature. The data sets we analyzed in this paper represent a more challenging test than the previous ones. Contrary to previous results reported in the literature, our results (1) do not support any detectable inter-epoch variations of orbital and stellar parameters, (2) are photometrically stable at the level ∼10{sup −4} in the IR, and (3) the transit depth measurements at the two wavelengths are consistent within 1σ. We also (4) detect a possible transit duration variation of ∼80 s (2σ significance level) that has not been pointed out in the literature, and (5) confirm no transit timing variations ≳30 s.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Probing cosmological isotropy with type Ia supernovae

We investigate the validity of the cosmological principle by mapping the cosmological parameters H{sub 0} and q{sub 0} through the celestial sphere. In our analysis, which is performed in a low-redshift regime to follow a model-independent approach, we use two compilations of type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia), namely the Union2.1 and the JLA data sets. First, we show that the angular distributions for both SNe Ia data sets are statistically anisotropic at a high confidence level (p-value < 0.0001), particularly the JLA sample. Then we find that the cosmic expansion and acceleration are mainly of dipolar type, with maximal anisotropic expansion [acceleration] pointing toward (l,b)≃(326{sup ∘},12{sup ∘}) [(l,b)≃(174{sup ∘},27{sup ∘})], and (l,b)≃(58{sup ∘},−60{sup ∘}) [(l,b)≃(225{sup ∘},51{sup ∘})] for the Union2.1 and JLA data, respectively. Second, we use a geometrical method to test the hypothesis that the non-uniformly distributed SNe Ia events could introduce anisotropic imprints on the cosmological expansion and acceleration. For the JLA compilation, we found significant correlations between the celestial distribution of data points and the directional studies of H{sub 0} and q{sub 0}, suggesting that these results can be attributed to the intrinsic anisotropy of the sample. In the case of the Union2.1 data, nonetheless, these correlations are less pronounced, and we verify that the dipole asymmetry found in the H{sub 0} analyses coincides with the well-known bulk-flow motion of our local group. From these analyses, we conclude that the directional asymmetry on the cosmological parameter maps are mainly either of local origin or due to celestial incompleteness of current SNe Ia samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantitative comparison of opacities calculated using the R -matrix and distorted-wave methods: Fe xvii

ABSTRACT We present here a detailed calculation of opacities for Fe xvii at the physical conditions corresponding to the base of the Solar convection zone. Many ingredients are involved in the calculation of opacities. We review the impact of each ingredient on the final monochromatic and mean opacities (Rosseland and Planck). The necessary atomic data were calculated with the R-matrix and the distorted-wave (DW) methods. We study the effect of broadening, of resolution, of the extent of configuration sets and of configuration interaction to understand the differences between several theoretical predictions as well as the existing large disagreement with measurements. New Dirac R-matrix calculations including all configurations up to the n = 4, 5, and 6 complexes have been performed as well as corresponding Breit–Pauli DW calculations. The DW calculations have been extended to include autoionizing initial levels. A quantitative contrast is made between comparable DW and R-matrix models. We have reached self-convergence with n = 6 R-matrix and DW calculations. Populations in autoionizing initial levels contribute significantly to the opacities and should not be neglected. The R-matrix and DW results are consistent under the similar treatment of resonance broadening. The comparison with the experiment shows a persistent difference in the continuum while the filling of the windows shows some improvement. This study defines our path to the next generation of opacities and opacity tables for stellar modelling.

Delahaye, F.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Combining prior day contours to improve automated prostate segmentation

Purpose: To improve the accuracy of automatically segmented prostate, rectum, and bladder contours required for online adaptive therapy. The contouring accuracy on the current image guidance [image guided radiation therapy (IGRT)] scan is improved by combining contours from earlier IGRT scans via the simultaneous truth and performance level estimation (STAPLE) algorithm. Methods: Six IGRT prostate patients treated with daily kilo-voltage (kV) cone-beam CT (CBCT) had their original plan CT and nine CBCTs contoured by the same physician. Three types of automated contours were produced for analysis. (1) Plan: By deformably registering the plan CT to each CBCT and then using the resulting deformation field to morph the plan contours to match the CBCT anatomy. (2) Previous: The contour set drawn by the physician on the previous day CBCT is similarly deformed to match the current CBCT anatomy. (3) STAPLE: The contours drawn by the physician, on each prior CBCT and the plan CT, are deformed to match the CBCT anatomy to produce multiple contour sets. These sets are combined using the STAPLE algorithm into one optimal set. Results: Compared to plan and previous, STAPLE improved the average Dice's coefficient (DC) with the original physician drawn CBCT contours to a DC as follows: Bladder: 0.81 {+-} 0.13, 0.91 {+-} 0.06, and 0.92 {+-} 0.06; Prostate: 0.75 {+-} 0.08, 0.82 {+-} 0.05, and 0.84 {+-} 0.05; and Rectum: 0.79 {+-} 0.06, 0.81 {+-} 0.06, and 0.85 {+-} 0.04, respectively. The STAPLE results are within intraobserver consistency, determined by the physician blindly recontouring a subset of CBCTs. Comparing plans recalculated using the physician and STAPLE contours showed an average disagreement less than 1% for prostate D98 and mean dose, and 5% and 3% for bladder and rectum mean dose, respectively. One scan takes an average of 19 s to contour. Using five scans plus STAPLE takes less than 110 s on a 288 core graphics processor unit. Conclusions: Combining the plan and all prior days via the STAPLE algorithm to produce treatment day contours is superior to the current standard of deforming only the plan contours to the daily CBCT. STAPLE also improves the precision, with a substantial decrease in standard deviation, a key for adaptive therapy. Geometrically and dosimetrically accurate contours can be automatically generated with STAPLE on prostate region kV CBCT in a time scale suitable for online adaptive therapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Analysis of perceived similarity between pairs of microcalcification clusters in mammograms

Purpose: Content-based image retrieval aims to assist radiologists by presenting example images with known pathology that are visually similar to the case being evaluated. In this work, the authors investigate several fundamental issues underlying the similarity ratings between pairs of microcalcification (MC) lesions on mammograms as judged by radiologists: the degree of variability in the similarity ratings, the impact of this variability on agreement between readers in retrieval of similar lesions, and the factors contributing to the readers’ similarity ratings. Methods: The authors conduct a reader study on a set of 1000 image pairs of MC lesions, in which a group of experienced breast radiologists rated the degree of similarity between each image pair. The image pairs are selected, from among possible pairings of 222 cases (110 malignant, 112 benign), based on quantitative image attributes (features) and the results of a preliminary reader study. Next, the authors apply analysis of variance (ANOVA) to quantify the level of variability in the readers’ similarity ratings, and study how the variability in individual reader ratings affects consistency between readers. The authors also measure the extent to which readers agree on images which are most similar to a given query, for which the Dice coefficient is used. To investigate how the similarity ratings potentially relate to the attributes underlying the cases, the authors study the fraction of perceptually similar images that also share the same benign or malignant pathology as the query image; moreover, the authors apply multidimensional scaling (MDS) to embed the cases according to their mutual perceptual similarity in a two-dimensional plot, which allows the authors to examine the manner in which similar lesions relate to one another in terms of benign or malignant pathology and clustered MCs. Results: The ANOVA results show that the coefficient of determination in the reader similarity ratings is 0.59. The variability level in the similarity ratings is proved to be a limiting factor, leading to only moderate correlation between the readers in their readings. The Dice coefficient, measuring agreement between readers in retrieval of similar images, can vary from 0.45 to 0.64 with different levels of similarity for individual readers, but is higher for average ratings from a group of readers (from 0.59 to 0.78). More importantly, the fraction of retrieved cases that match the benign or malignant pathology of the query image was found to increase with the degree of similarity among the retrieved images, reaching average value as high as 0.69 for the radiologists (p-value <10{sup −4} compared to random guessing). Moreover, MDS embedding of all the cases shows that cases having the same pathology tend to cluster together, and that neighboring cases in the plot tend to be similar in their clustered MCs. Conclusions: While individual readers exhibit substantial variability in their similarity ratings, similarity ratings averaged from a group of readers can achieve a high level of intergroup consistency and agreement in retrieval of similar images. More importantly, perceptually similar cases are also likely to be similar in their underlying benign or malignant pathology and image features of clustered MCs, which could be of diagnostic value in computer-aided diagnosis for lesions with clustered MCs.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code in the Design of SRF Cavities at Fermilab

Jacketed Superconducting Radio Frequency (SRF) cavities structurally comprise of an inner niobium vessel surrounded by a liquid helium containment vessels. The pressure of the helium bath and/or its volume might be such that a jacketed SRF cavity shall be considered a system of pressure vessels. Thus, methods described in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) should be used to analyze the structural soundness of jacketed SRF cavities. This paper will report the use of the set of rules developed at Fermilab for the design of SRF cavities, such as jacketed 1.3 GHz cavities for LCLS-II HE and jacketed Single Spoke Resonator type~2 (SSR2) for PIP-II, to ensure a similar level of safety as prescribed by the ASME BPVC.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evaluating Equivalent Monte Carlo Calculations

We address several basic issues, primarily whether two sets of MCNP tallies are stochastically equivalent (i.e., that the sets of particle history scores follow the same statistical distribution) and, if di erent, quantify the signi cance level of the di erence. The underlying topics here are of longstanding interest to the statistical community, and no \new" theoretical work needs to be carried out to address them. Related comparisons are useful to code developers in assessing code modi cations and to code users in assessing other simulations and related physical measurements. However, these statistical methods must be applied with care to avoid obtaining misleading results, as we show in several examples. The text is written for MCNP practitioners.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effect of the Flux Separability Approximation on Multigroup Neutron Transport

The angular dependence of flux-weighted multigroup cross sections is commonly neglected when generating multigroup libraries. The error of this flux separability approximation is typically not isolated from other error sources due to a lack of availability of library generation and corresponding solvers that cannot relax this approximation. These errors can now be isolated and quantified with the availability of a multigroup Monte Carlo transport and multigroup library-generation capability in the OpenMC Monte Carlo transport code. This work will discuss relevant details of the OpenMC implementation, provide an example case useful for detailing the type of errors one can expect from making the flux separability approximation, and end with more realistic problems which show the impact of the approximation and highlight how it can strongly arise from an energy-dependent resonance absorption effect. Since the angle-dependence is intrinsically linked to the energy group structure, these examples also show that relaxing the flux separability approximation with angle-dependent cross sections could be used to reduce either the fine-tuning required to set a multigroup energy structure for a specific reactor type or the number of energy groups required to obtain a desired level of accuracy for a given problem. This trade-off could increase the costs of generating multigroup cross sections, and has the potential to require more memory for storing the multigroup library during the transport calculations, but it can significantly reduce the computational time required since the runtime of a discrete ordinates or method of characteristics neutron transport solver scales roughly linearly with the number of groups.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Robust Scalable Transportation System Concept

This report documents the 2005 Revolutionary System Concept for Aeronautics (RSCA) study entitled "A Robust, Scalable Transportation System Concept". The objective of the study was to generate, at a high-level of abstraction, characteristics of a new concept for the National Airspace System, or the new NAS, under which transportation goals such as increased throughput, delay reduction, and improved robustness could be realized. Since such an objective can be overwhelmingly complex if pursued at the lowest levels of detail, instead a System-of-Systems (SoS) approach was adopted to model alternative air transportation architectures at a high level. The SoS approach allows the consideration of not only the technical aspects of the NAS", but also incorporates policy, socio-economic, and alternative transportation system considerations into one architecture. While the representations of the individual systems are basic, the higher level approach allows for ways to optimize the SoS at the network level, determining the best topology (i.e. configuration of nodes and links). The final product (concept) is a set of rules of behavior and network structure that not only satisfies national transportation goals, but represents the high impact rules that accomplish those goals by getting the agents to "do the right thing" naturally. The novel combination of Agent Based Modeling and Network Theory provides the core analysis methodology in the System-of-Systems approach. Our method of approach is non-deterministic which means, fundamentally, it asks and answers different questions than deterministic models. The nondeterministic method is necessary primarily due to our marriage of human systems with technological ones in a partially unknown set of future worlds. Our goal is to understand and simulate how the SoS, human and technological components combined, evolve.

Hahn, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2018

Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless if the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the NASA PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle Software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data, respectively. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. We determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.

Novack, Steven↗