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Methods of improving brain dose estimates for internally deposited radionuclides *

The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) convened Scientific Committee 6–12 (SC 6–12) to examine methods for improving dose estimates for brain tissue for internally deposited radionuclides, with emphasis on alpha emitters. This Memorandum summarises the main findings of SC 6–12 described in the recently published NCRP Commentary No. 31, ‘Development of Kinetic and Anatomical Models for Brain Dosimetry for Internally Deposited Radionuclides’. The Commentary examines the extent to which dose estimates for the brain could be improved through increased realism in the biokinetic and dosimetric models currently used in radiation protection and epidemiology. A limitation of most of the current element-specific systemic biokinetic models is the absence of brain as an explicitly identified source region with its unique rate(s) of exchange of the element with blood. The brain is usually included in a large source region called Other that contains all tissues not considered major repositories for the element. In effect, all tissues in Other are assigned a common set of exchange rates with blood. A limitation of current dosimetric models for internal emitters is that activity in the brain is treated as a well-mixed pool, although more sophisticated models allowing consideration of different activity concentrations in different regions of the brain have been proposed. Here case studies for 18 internal emitters indicate that brain dose estimates using current dosimetric models may change substantially (by a factor of 5 or more), or may change only modestly, by addition of a sub-model of the brain in the biokinetic model, with transfer rates based on results of published biokinetic studies and autopsy data for the element of interest. As a starting place for improving brain dose estimates, development of biokinetic models with explicit sub-models of the brain (when sufficient biokinetic data are available) is underway for radionuclides frequently encountered in radiation epidemiology. A longer-term goal is development of coordinated biokinetic and dosimetric models that address the distribution of major radioelements among radiosensitive brain tissues.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Magnetic Field Measurements of First Pre-series Full -Length 4.2 m Quadrupole MQXFA03 Using PCB Rotating Coils for the Hi Hi-Lumi LHC Project

The U.S. Hi-Lumi LHC Accelerator Upgrade Project (AUP) and CERN have joined efforts to develop high field quad-rupoles for the Hi-Lumi LHC upgrade. The US national laborato-ries in the AUP project will deliver 10 magnets and each cryostat has two 4.2 m high gradient quadrupoles in it. These magnets are made of Nb3Sn conductors, with large aperture (150 mm) and in-tegrated gradient of 556.9 T. This paper reports on magnetic measurements performed during the vertical test at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) in 2019-2020. A warm measurement Z-Scan (+/- 15 A) with 42 Z-positions before cool-down was per-formed at BNL. The results were directly compared to field data measured at LBNL during magnet assembly. Measured harmonics and magnetic center offsets (ΔX and ΔY) have provided timely and informative diagnostics on the magnet structure’s shape at both warm and cold temperatures. A new centering fixture was de-signed and added to better center the warm bore tube which con-tains the rotating coil probe. After the quench training to 16.47 kA was achieved, a complete set of cold measurements (Z-Scan at 16.47 kA and I-Scan from 960 A to 16.47 kA and back to 960 A) was made. Periodic axial variation of allowed and nonallowed harmonics was observed which is related to the coil radial and/or mid-plane variations along the magnet axis. Overall, the average harmonics in the straight section are within the required field boundaries.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Quantitative Characterization of Hyper-Local Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Sources

Atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are often characterized using stationary, tower-based sensors. Ground based sensors reside in the turbulent boundary layer and are subject to intense concentration impulses from hyper-local (<100m) point sources of emissions. These high frequency spikes are often filtered out in broader emission flux studies, losing valuable information about how hyper-local sources influence receptors. In this study, we investigated how empirical atmospheric data can be used to locate and quantify a concurrently measured hyper-local point source in a dense urban setting. An eddy covariance style tower and a low-cost sensor tower were deployed in various locations around an urban, hyper-local CO2/CH4 emissions source (a continuously measured restaurant exhaust vent). A model using different processing and statistical techniques was built to examine the most effective procedures for source isolation, directional location, and emission quantification. Using excess concentrations above a minimum baseline, we identify the source using bivariate polar plots and quantify the relationship between source size, receptor distance, and statistical proxies. Furthermore, we find that varying statistical thresholds allows for identification of less influential sources which are drowned out by larger or closer sources. Finally, we show that large sources can be effectively characterized using low-cost sensors, a valuable outcome informing how networks for monitoring larger areas could be implemented. This work may provide a basis for source identification and monitoring protocols for networks that feature sensors influenced by hyper-local point sources, subject to site-specific assumptions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enabling Cybersecurity, Situational Awareness and Resilience in Distribution Grids with High Penetration of Photovoltaics (CARE-PV) (Final Report)

Since legacy distribution systems have very limited visibility beyond the substation, high penetration of PV at the grid edge presents some unique operational challenges. One approach to address these challenges is to use information from advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and µPMUs. However, exploiting this information is impacted by a number of factors, including multi-timescale measurements, volume of data generated, communication network impairments (e.g., information loss and latency) and susceptibility to cyber-attacks. Therefore, one of the critical tasks involved in the management of a distribution grid is to develop complete situational awareness by integrating cyber-security mechanisms with state estimation strategies and leveraging this situational awareness to assure energy services at strategic locations while exploiting AMI/PV inverter/ µPMU data. This CARE-PV project addresses the fundamental challenges in situational awareness and resilience to cyber and physical vectors by exploiting the synergy between innovative modeling, estimation, data analytics, testing and validation using smart PV inverters designed at K-State and facilities at NREL. Specifically, the project involved the development, testing and validation of the following novel enabling technologies: (Thrust 1) Resilience to cyber vectors that impact data integrity was addressed via a two-level defense strategy that combines cyber intrusion detection using self-learning, cooperative smart PV inverters, and a novel moving target defense framework to combat data integrity attacks. (Thrust 2) Resilience to cyber-physical vectors that impact situational awareness by limiting data availability was addressed via novel centralized and decentralized, sparsity-based static and dynamic state estimation approaches that enhance observability even when the underlying system is unobservable. (Thrust 3) Leveraging a unique probabilistic sensitivity analysis approach accompanied by one-of-a-kind dominant influencer set computation, the vulnerability of critical infrastructure at strategic locations was evaluated so that proactive PV-based control strategies can be used to support operations under normal/outage scenarios. These CARE-PV project innovations were demonstrated on both small-scale IEEE and larger utility-scale testbeds (Thrust 4). Feedback from Industry Advisory Board members was used to formulate a commercialization pathway for a subset of CARE-PV technologies. These CARE-PV technologies will ultimately lead to reliable and secure, large-scale integration of renewable energy and mitigate the risk of energy disruption resulting from cyber incidents and other emerging threats within the energy environment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Estimating rates and patterns of diversification with incomplete sampling: a case study in the rosids

Premise Recent advances in generating large‐scale phylogenies enable broad‐scale estimation of species diversification. These now common approaches typically are characterized by (1) incomplete species coverage without explicit sampling methodologies and/or (2) sparse backbone representation, and usually rely on presumed phylogenetic placements to account for species without molecular data. We used empirical examples to examine the effects of incomplete sampling on diversification estimation and provide constructive suggestions to ecologists and evolutionary biologists based on those results. Methods We used a supermatrix for rosids and one well‐sampled subclade (Cucurbitaceae) as empirical case studies. We compared results using these large phylogenies with those based on a previously inferred, smaller supermatrix and on a synthetic tree resource with complete taxonomic coverage. Finally, we simulated random and representative taxon sampling and explored the impact of sampling on three commonly used methods, both parametric (RPANDA and BAMM) and semiparametric (DR). Results We found that the impact of sampling on diversification estimates was idiosyncratic and often strong. Compared to full empirical sampling, representative and random sampling schemes either depressed or inflated speciation rates, depending on methods and sampling schemes. No method was entirely robust to poor sampling, but BAMM was least sensitive to moderate levels of missing taxa. Conclusions We suggest caution against uncritical modeling of missing taxa using taxonomic data for poorly sampled trees and in the use of summary backbone trees and other data sets with high representative bias, and we stress the importance of explicit sampling methodologies in macroevolutionary studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Vector boson scattering and anomalous quartic couplings in final states with ℓνqq or ℓℓqq plus jets using proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A measurement is presented of the electroweak vector boson scattering production of ZV (V = W, Z) boson pairs associated with two jets in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 , were collected at the CERN LHC with the CMS detector during the 2016–2018 data-taking period. The analysis targets final states with a pair of isolated electrons or muons from Z boson decays and three or four jets, depending on the momentum of the vector boson that decays into quarks. Signal strength is measured for events characterized by a large invariant mass of two forward jets with a wide pseudorapidity gap between them. The electroweak production of ZV in association with two jets is measured with an observed (expected) significance of 1.3 (1.8) standard deviations. A combination of the analyses of ZV channel and the previously published WV channel in the lepton plus jets final state places constraints on effective field theory parameters that describe anomalous electroweak production of WW, WZ, and ZZ boson pairs in association with two jets. Several world best limits are set on anomalous quartic gauge couplings in terms of dimension-8 standard model effective field theory operators.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗

CLASS Survey Description: Coronal-line Needles in the SDSS Haystack

Coronal lines are a powerful, yet poorly understood, tool to identify and characterize active galactic nuclei. There have been few large-scale surveys of coronal lines in the general galaxy population in the literature so far. Using a novel preselection technique with a flux-to-rms ratio $\mathcal{F}$, followed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo fitting, we searched for the full suite of 20 coronal lines in the optical spectra of almost 1 million galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 8. We present a catalog of the emission-line parameters for the resulting 258 galaxies with detections. The Coronal Line Activity Spectroscopic Survey includes line properties, host-galaxy properties, and selection criteria for all galaxies in which at least one line is detected. This comprehensive study reveals that a significant fraction of coronal-line activity is missed in past surveys based on a more limited set of coronal lines; ~60% of our sample do not display the more widely surveyed [Fe x] λ6374. In addition, we discover a strong correlation between coronal-line and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer W2 luminosities, suggesting that the mid-infrared flux can be used to predict coronal-line fluxes. For each line we also provide a confidence level that the line is present, generated by a novel neural network, trained on fully simulated data. We find that after training the network to detect individual lines using 100,000 simulated spectra, we achieve an overall true-positive rate of 75.49% and a false-positive rate of only 3.96%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Biofuel Air Emissions Analysis

U.S. has goals to produce 3 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) annually by 2030, increasing to 35 billion gallons by 2050 to decarbonize the aviation sector. Meeting these production targets will require large number of biorefineries to be set up. However, ability to comply with federal air quality standards is prerequisite to being issued a construction permit. Negotiating the permitting process for a new biorefinery can be quite onerous and cost the investors significant time and money. Although there can be numerous reasons for delayed biorefinery construction, air permitting is fraught with pitfalls because the permitting process relies on precedence, which the future SAF biorefineries lack. NREL's Biofuel Air Emissions Analysis project is unique and innovative in terms of the tools, approaches, and analyses provided. NREL is the only national laboratory that is actively working at the intersection of Federal air quality regulations, emissions and air quality analysis across the supply chain, and process design. This project is focused on providing much needed data and analyses that address biorefinery air permitting. This project develops models and quantitative analyses and measures progress towards meeting air quality regulatory requirements. These models and methods are applied to analyze air permitting related to wastewater sludge to biofuel conversion pathways using hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), impacts of HTL pathway on local and regional air quality including an assessment of health and equity impacts. In addition to filling research gaps, this project also disseminates the findings to the relevant stakeholders at BETO, other national labs, and regulatory agencies.

air quality↗

Data for Determining Mating Type and Ploidy in Rhodotorula toruloides and its Effect on Growth on Sugars from Lignocellulosic Biomass

Rhodotorula toruloides is being developed for the use in industrial biotechnology processes because of its favorable physiology. This includes its ability to produce and store large amounts of lipids in the form of intracellular lipid bodies. Nineteen strains were characterized for mating type, ploidy, robustness for growth, and accumulation of lipids on inhibitory switchgrass hydrolysate (SGH). Mating type was determined using a novel polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based assay, which was validated using the classical microscopic test. Three of the strains were heterozygous for mating type (A1/A2). Ploidy analysis revealed a complex pattern. Two strains were triploid, eight haploid, and eight either diploid or aneuploid. Two of the A1/A2 strains were compared to their parents for growth on 75%v/v concentrated SGH. The A1/A2 strains were much more robust than the parental strains, which either did not grow or had extended lag times. The entire set was evaluated in 60%v/v SGH batch cultures for growth kinetics and biomass and lipid production. Lipid titers were 2.33–9.40 g/L with a median of 6.12 g/L, excluding the two strains that did not grow. Lipid yields were 0.032–0.131 (g/g) and lipid contents were 13.5–53.7% (g/g). Four strains had significantly higher lipid yields and contents. One of these strains, which had among the highest lipid yield in this study (0.131 ± 0.007 g/g), has not been previously described in the literature.

Conversion↗

PySIDT: Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees for Molecular Property Prediction

Accurate molecular property prediction is important across all fields of chemistry. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become increasingly popular due to their ability to train automatically, avoiding the incredibly tedious process of constructing and extending traditional property estimation schemes. However, DNNs require large amounts of training data, are challenging to interpret, require large amounts of memory to load even during inference, and have severe difficulties incorporating qualitative chemical knowledge, which are often desired for molecular property prediction tasks. Here, in this study, we present PySIDT (https://github.com/zadorlab/PySIDT), a software for training and running inference on Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees (SIDTs). SIDTs are graph-based decision trees made of nodes associated with molecular substructures. Inference is done by descending target molecular structures down the decision tree to nodes with matching subgraph isomorphic substructures and making predictions based on the final (most specific) nodes matched. SIDTs scale down well to dataset sizes much smaller than is feasible for DNNs. As trees of molecular substructures, SIDTs are inherently readable and easy to visualize, making them easy to analyze. They are also straightforward to extend and retrain, facilitate uncertainty estimation, and enable easy integration of expert knowledge. We demonstrate the SIDT approach discussing its application to a diverse range of molecular prediction tasks: rate coefficient estimation, diffusion coefficient estimation, thermochemistry estimation, transition state bond stretch prediction, p K a prediction, stability of molecular structures, stability of surface structures, and prediction of surface lateral interaction energetics. Additionally, we demonstrate the power of the SIDT algorithms in two direct learning curve vanilla comparisons with the popular DNN-based software Chemprop and the popular gradient boosted trees-based software XGBoost on enthalpy of formation and rate coefficient prediction tasks. In particular, in the enthalpy of formation case, vanilla PySIDT is able to outperform vanilla Chemprop and XGBoost across the full range of training/validation set sizes out to 11,560 data points.

Johnson, Matthew Sean [Sandia National Laboratorie↗

Bayesian calibration and uncertainty quantification of a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for polymer interfaces

In this work we present a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for the fracture of polymeric interfaces and performs a Bayesian calibration, an uncertainty quantification, and a sensitivity analysis for the model. The proposed cohesive zone model accounts for both reversible elastic and irreversible rate-dependent separation sliding deformation at the interface. The viscous dissipation due to the irreversible opening at the interface is modeled using elastic-viscoplastic kinematics that incorporates the effects of strain rate. Inverse calibration of parameters for such complex models through trial and error is challenging due to the large number of parameters of the model. Moreover, the calibrated parameter values are often non-unique and uncertain when the available experimental data is limited. To tackle this challenge, we employ a Bayesian calibration approach to identify parameters from experimental data, the resulting parameters significantly enhance the accuracy of the model. To quantify the uncertainty associated with the inverse parameter estimation, a modular Bayesian approach is employed to calibrate the unknown model parameters, accounting for the parameter uncertainty of the cohesive zone model. The advantages of the Bayesian calibration over a deterministic parameter fit are demonstrated. Further, to quantify the model uncertainties, such as incorrect assumptions or missing physics, a discrepancy function is introduced, which significantly improves the model’s prediction. Finally, the total uncertainty of the model is quantified in a predictive setting. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess how changes in the input variables of the model affect the peak load, facilitating the identification of a concise set of highly influential parameters. The present approach can be used for calibration and uncertainty quantification for other complex computational mechanics models. It should also facilitate the designing of interface materials under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Leaf Wax Hydrogen Isotopes Reflect Storm Track Position Over Western North America

Proxy records of past climates have yielded powerful insights into regional hydroclimate dynamics. Novel insights may be gained by reconstructing spatiotemporal changes in precipitation isotopologues in past climate states that cannot be gleaned from individual site‐level studies. In this paper, we ask whether latitudinal gradients in the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of precipitation, as inferred from sedimentary leaf wax biomarkers, reflect aspects of large‐scale climate conditions in western North America (WNA). Modern coretop samples from offshore WNA show that leaf wax hydrogen isotopes broadly track the hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall between 20 and 40N, but with an offset corresponding to a relatively constant “apparent fractionation” value. Poleward of 40N, the leaf wax signal may be complicated by fluvial transport of leaf waxes from the continental interior. Leaf wax‐inferred precipitation hydrogen isotopes show a shift to more negative values between 30 and 40N. We use modern observational data to show that this latitudinal range marks a major transition between the subtropical arid zone and the location of the midlatitude storm tracks over the northeast Pacific. Nudged water isotope‐enabled models capture the location of the arid to mesic climate transition with fidelity. This modern data set suggests that reconstructions of the latitudinal gradient of precipitation hydrogen isotopes can constrain the sensitivity of the storm tracks to shifts in climatic boundary conditions in past climate states. This approach can yield novel insights into past, present, and future hydroclimate variability in this arid region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Neutral gas pressure dependence of ion–ion mutual neutralization rate constants using Landau–Zener theory coupled with trajectory simulations

In this computational study, we describe a self-consistent trajectory simulation approach to capture the effect of neutral gas pressure on ion–ion mutual neutralization (MN) reactions. The electron transfer probability estimated using Landau–Zener (LZ) transition state theory is incorporated into classical trajectory simulations to elicit predictions of MN cross sections in vacuum and rate constants at finite neutral gas pressures. Electronic structure calculations with multireference configuration interaction and large correlation consistent basis sets are used to derive inputs to the LZ theory. The key advance of our trajectory simulation approach is the inclusion of the effect of ion-neutral interactions on MN using a Langevin representation of the effect of background gas on ion transport. For H + – H – and Li + – H(D) – , our approach quantitatively agrees with measured speed-dependent cross sections for up to ~10 5 m/s. For the ion pair Ne + – Cl – , our predictions of the MN rate constant at ~1 Torr are a factor of ~2 to 3 higher than the experimentally measured value. Similarly, for Xe + – F – in the pressure range of ~20 000–80 000 Pa, our predictions of the MN rate constant are ~20% lower but are in excellent qualitative agreement with experimental data. Here, the paradigm of using trajectory simulations to self-consistently capture the effect of gas pressure on MN reactions advanced here provides avenues for the inclusion of additional nonclassical effects in future work.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Software-Hardware Co-design of Heterogeneous SmartNIC System for Recommendation Models Inference and Training

Deep Learning Recommendation Models (DLRMs) are critical applications in various domains and have evolved as one of the single largest machine learning applications. Trillions of DLRM parameters exceed the on-chip memory capacity of GPUs. Large-scale multi-node systems are required for distributed DLRM inference and training, which suffer from the all-to-all communication bottleneck, mainly limiting the scalability of ever-growing DLRMs. In recent years, SmartNICs have evolved with coupled computation and communication capabilities providing opportunities for a powerful heterogeneous device in the system. However, there isn't such a distributed system that fully leverages the abundant smartNIC resources that resolve the scalability issue of DLRMs. In this work, we proposed a software-hardware co-design of a heterogeneous smartNIC system that resolves the communication bottleneck of distributed DLRMs, mitigates the memory bandwidth pressure, and improves computation efficiency. We provide a set of smartNIC designs of cache systems (including local cache and remote cache) and smartNIC computation kernels which reduce data movement, relieve memory lookup intensity, and improve the GPU's computation efficiency. In addition, we propose a graph algorithm that improves the data locality of queries within batches which optimizes the overall system performance with higher data reuse. Our evaluation shows that our system achieves 2.1x latency speedup for inference and 1.6x throughput speedup for training.

Guo, Anqi↗

LLM integration into EPICS

The utilization of large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT has seen a remarkable increase in various fields over the past few years. These models have demonstrated their versatility and capability in understanding and generating human-like text, making them invaluable tools in numerous applications. In this project, we explore the integration of a LLM into the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS). The primary focus of this integration is to employ the LLM for advanced image processing and spatial analysis on images obtained from the beamlines. By leveraging the capabilities of the LLM, we aim to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of image interpretation, enabling more precise data analysis and decision-making within the EPICS framework. This integration not only showcases the potential of LLMs in scientific and industrial applications but also sets the stage for future advancements in automated control systems.

Adams, Ethan↗

TriC: Distributed-memory Triangle Counting by Exploiting the Graph Structure

Graph analytics has emerged as an important tool in the analysis of large scale data from diverse application domains such as social networks, cyber security and bioinformatics. Counting the number of triangles in a graph is a fundamental kernel with several applications such as detecting the community structure of a graph or in identifying important vertices in a graph. The ubiquity of massive datasets is driving the need to scale graph analytics on parallel systems. However, numerous challenges exist in efficiently parallelizing graph algorithms, especially on distributed-memory systems. Irregular memory accesses and communication patterns, low computation to communication ratios, and the need for frequent synchronization are some of the leading challenges. In this paper, we present TriC, our distributed-memory implementation of triangle counting in graphs using the Message Passing Interface (MPI), as a submission to the 2020 GraphChallenge competition. Using a set of synthetic and real-world inputs from the challenge, we demonstrate a speedup of up to 90x relative to previous work on 32 processor-cores of a NERSC Cori node. We also provide details from distributed runs with up to8192 processes along with strong scaling results. The observations presented in this work provide an understanding of the system-level bottlenecks at scale that specifically impact sparse-irregular workloads and will therefore benefit other efforts to parallelize graph algorithms.

Halappanavar, Mahantesh↗

Conformational Dynamics of Bacteriochlorophyll c in Chlorosomes from the bchQ Mutant of Chlorobaculum tepidum

In contrast to the common viewpoint that bacteriochlorophyll (BChl) motion is largely absent within the chlorosome assembly, physics-based modeling points to a crucial role of the nanoscale librational motion of the macrocycle for the transfer of excitons. To elucidate this motion experimentally, compositional uniformity and high sensitivity are required. We focused on uniformly 13 C labeled chlorosome preparations from the bchQ mutant Chlorobaculum tepidum with significantly enhanced structural homogeneity. The librational motion is characterized using Rotational Echo DOuble Resonance (REDOR), and in addition, the impact of temperature on specific functionalities within BChl molecules is studied with 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional dipolar and scalar-based MAS NMR measurements. Results show the gradual freezing of the tails and side chains of the BChls with decreasing temperature. However, the librational motion analyzed by measuring the 5C–H dipolar coupling strength obtained from REDOR data sets persists at different temperatures. REDOR simulations show a close match to the experimental dephasing frequency of oscillation for a dipolar coupling strength of 17.5 ± 0.5 kHz which is considerably less than the dipolar coupling strength of 22.7 kHz in the rigid limit. Following a two-site jump model, we arrive at an estimate for BChl libration sampling at an angle of θ = 48 ± 4°, corroborating that the macrocycle indeed experiences significant librational motion on a time scale that is short compared to the NMR measurement time. This finding is in full quantitative support of the dominant rotational motion exhibited by the BChl macrocycle estimated from early MD simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Latent Twins

Over the past decade, scientific machine learning has transformed the development of mathematical and computational frameworks for analyzing, modeling, and predicting complex systems. From inverse problems to numerical partial differential equations (PDEs), dynamical systems, and model reduction, these advances have pushed the boundaries of what can be simulated. Yet they have often progressed in parallel, with representation learning and algorithmic solution methods evolving largely as separate pipelines. With Latent Twins, we propose a unifying mathematical framework that creates a hidden surrogate in latent space for the underlying equations. Whereas digital twins mirror physical systems in the digital world, Latent Twins mirror mathematical systems in a learned latent space governed by operators. Through this lens, classical modeling, inversion, model reduction, and operator approximation all emerge as special cases of a single principle. We establish the fundamental approximation properties of Latent Twins for both ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and PDEs and demonstrate the framework across three representative settings: (i) canonical ODEs, capturing diverse dynamical regimes; (ii) a PDE benchmark using the shallow-water equations, contrasting Latent Twin simulations with deep operator network and forecasts with a four-dimensional variational method baseline; and (iii) a challenging real-data geopotential reanalysis dataset, reconstructing and forecasting from sparse, noisy observations. Latent Twins provide a compact, interpretable surrogate for solution operators that evaluate across arbitrary time gaps in a single-shot, while remaining compatible with scientific pipelines such as assimilation, control, and uncertainty quantification. Looking forward, this framework offers scalable, theory-grounded surrogates that bridge data-driven representation learning and classical scientific modeling across disciplines.

Latent Twins↗