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DOE OSTI2022

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Sensitivity Analysis of Successful Evacuee Proportion in Hypothetical Seismic Nuclear Emergency Situation

A magnitude 5.8 earthquake, which is the strongest earthquake ever detected in Korea, occurred in Gyeongju on 12 September, 2016. People were worried about not only the impact to their safety and quality of life as directly affected from the earthquake, but also the secondary impact from such a nuclear power plant (NPP) accident incurred by the earthquake. Public awareness is changing such that the risk of earthquakes is no longer a story of other countries. Even if the current situation in Korea is not regarded, it is important to assess the seismic hazard to an NPP and prepare for preventing the effects related with the earthquake impact. Developing a seismic evacuation model is necessary in a part of a level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) because it is one of the most affecting factors of public radiation exposure and health effects in an emergency phase. In a previous study, a sensitivity analysis of the evacuation speed in a hypothetical NPP accident by an earthquake has been carried out, and population doses resulting from various seismic evacuation scenarios associated with evacuation speed have been compared. In addition to the previous study, the proportion of evacuees who evacuate successfully with adequate speed has been considered and a sensitivity analysis has been performed in this study.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2001

Numerical Simulations of Precipitation Processes, Microphysics, and Microwave Radiative Properties of flood Producing Storms in Mediterranean & Adriatic Basins

A comprehensive understanding of the meteorological and microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ data analysis, radar data analysis, and satellite data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales. An important aspect of understanding microphysical controls of severe storms, is first understanding the meteorological controls under which a storm has evolved, and then using that information to help characterize the dominant microphysical processes. For hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the October 5-6, 1998 Friuli flood event in northern Italy, a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution. This involves intense convective development, Sratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that effect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. This talk overviews the microphysical elements of a severe Mediterranean storm in such a context, investigated with the aid of TRMM satellite and other remote sensing measurements, but guided by a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulation of the Friuli flood event. The data analysis for this paper was conducted by my research groups at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center in Huntsville, AL and Florida State University in Tallahassee, and in collaboration with Dr. Alberto Mugnai's research group at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Rome. The numerical modeling was conducted by Professor Oreg Tripoli and Ms. Giulia Panegrossi at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, using Professor Tripoli's nonhydrostatic modeling system (NMS). This is a scalable, fully nested mesoscale model capable of resolving nonhydrostatic circulations from regional scale down to cloud scale and below.

Smith, Eric A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cross-platform analysis of public responses to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence on Twitter and Reddit

Online social networks (OSNs) have become a powerful tool to study collective human responses to extreme events such as earthquakes. Most previous research concentrated on a single platform and utilized users’ behaviors on a single platform to study people’s general responses. In this study, we explore the characteristics of people’s behaviors on different OSNs and conduct a cross-platform analysis of public responses to earthquakes. Our findings support the Uses and Gratification theory that users on Reddit and Twitter are engaging with platforms that they may feel best reflect their sense of self. Using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes as our study cases, we collected 510,579 tweets and 45,770 Reddit posts (including 1437 submissions and 44,333 comments) to answer the following research questions: (1) What were the similarities and differences between public responses on Twitter and Reddit? (2) Considering the different mechanisms of Twitter and Reddit, what unique information of public responses can we learn from Reddit as compared with Twitter? By answering these research questions, we aim to bridge the gap of cross-platform public responses research towards natural hazards. Our study evinces that the users on the two different platforms have both different topics of interest and different sentiments towards the same earthquake, which indicates the necessity of investigating cross-platform OSNs to reveal a more comprehensive picture of people’s general public responses towards certain disasters. Our analysis also finds that r/conspiracy subreddit is one of the major venues where people discuss the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes on Reddit and different misinformation/conspiracies spread on Twitter and Reddit platforms (e.g., “Big one is coming” on Twitter and “Nuclear test” on Reddit).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Fastness Properties and Color Analysis of Natural Indigo Dye and Compatibility Study of Different Natural Reducing Agents

Conventional reduction process of indigo dyes with sodium dithionite produced lots of harmful byproducts and caused environmental pollution. A new reduction method should be introduced to textile dyer so that reduction can be less hazardous with low impact on the environment and energy resources. This study investigates an alternative reducing agent obtained from natural resources. Three different types of reducing agent are used, extracted from the Date palm, Banana and Apple by boiling method. To compare their effect on the reduction of the natural indigo dyestuff, different color fastness properties, pH and the color yield (K/S) were measured according to the concentration of reducing agent and hydrated lime concentration. Outcomes show that K/S value varies with the amount of reducing agent. Average higher value shows from date palm among the three reducing agents at 25 °C & pH range 10.8–11. By using natural reducing agents, it can be possible to get satisfactory colorfastness and depth of shed compared to a synthetic reducing agent.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Innovative approach to counterfeit and noncompliant refrigerant detection: A cost-effective, portable solution

The increasing prevalence of counterfeit and incompatible refrigerants presents significant risks to Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems, including compromised equipment performance, safety hazards, and non-compliance. This article details the development of a novel, cost-effective, and portable detection device designed to accurately verify refrigerants. The device utilizes a controlled gas sampling and analysis system within a sealed chamber, ensuring precise measurements while maintaining safety through a purging mechanism. The system features a high-sensitivity sensor integrated with an onboard control module that analyzes gas composition in real-time, providing feedback within a 2-minute duration. Laboratory validation demonstrated the device’s high accuracy (>95 % based on correct identification of compliant vs. non-compliant blends) in detecting unauthorized refrigerant blends. The projected cost of the product stands at ∼ $150, based on the retail pricing of individual components. Laboratory validation demonstrated the device’s high accuracy (>95 % for composition identification, 100 % rejection of tested counterfeit/incorrect blends) in detecting unauthorized refrigerant blends with a response time <2 min. The device correctly identified authentic R-454A/B/C blends and reliably rejected R-407F and closely related counterfeit mixtures. Key advantages include affordability, ease of use, rapid response time, and compatibility with a wide range of refrigerants. This solution supports compliance with regulatory frameworks, enhances safety in HVAC&R operations, and mitigates the risks associated with counterfeit refrigerants.

Counterfeit refrigerants↗

DOE OSTI2026

Polyoxometalate-Assisted Crystallization: A General Strategy Enabling Structural Characterization of Molecular Radium Complexes

A fundamental understanding of radium (Ra) coordination chemistry has been hindered by the scarcity and radiological hazards of 226 Ra, leaving the structural characterization of molecular Ra complexes almost entirely unexplored. Here, we introduce a polyoxometalate (POM)-assisted crystallization strategy that enables single-crystal X-ray diffraction analysis of Ra–chelator complexes from microgram-scale samples. Employing the plenary Keggin anion [SiW 12 O 40 ] 4– , we isolated and structurally characterized Ra 2+ complexes of 18-crown-6 and the bis-picolinate macrocycle macropa, together with their Sr 2+ and Ba 2+ analogues. The resulting structures reveal systematic, size-dependent trends in coordination number and metal-donor distances across the alkaline earth series and provide the first direct experimental measurements of Ra–N and Ra–OCOO bond distances. Together, these results establish POM-assisted crystallization as a robust approach for obtaining solid-state structural information on Ra 2+ complexes of organic chelators, opening new opportunities to advance the coordination chemistry needed to fully realize radium’s potential in isotope production and targeted radiotherapy. More broadly, this approach expands the experimental toolkit available for studying scarce, highly radioactive elements accessible only in microgram quantities.

Anions↗

DOE OSTI2015

Response to Notice of Disapproval TA-63 Transuranic Waste Facility Permit Modification Request, Rev. 2, Los Alamos National Laboratory

This document responds to the August 30, 2012, New Mexico Environment Department- Hazardous Waste Bureau (NMED-HWB) Disapproval notice referenced above. The notice was issued for the Permit Modification Request for Technical Area 63, Transuranic Waste Facility, Hazardous Waste Container Storage Unit (PMR), Revision 2.0, submitted to NMED-HWB on July 13, 2012, by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) and Los Alamos National Security, LLC, collectively the Permittees. The Permittees are seeking to modify the Hazardous Waste Facility Permit (Permit) for Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for approval of the construction of the Transuranic Waste Facility (TWF) at Technical Area 63 (TA-63) and permission to store hazardous waste there. This response may contain information regarding the management of radioactive materials, including source, special nuclear, and byproduct material. Information on radioactive materials and radionuclides, including the results of sampling and analysis of radioactive constituents, is voluntarily provided to NMED-HWB in accordance with DOE policy.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Guidance for Grid Resilience Decisions in Rural Minnesota

This report assesses the hazard landscape of the state of Minnesota, identifies weather hazards that are most impactful to the distribution system, includes a statewide assessment of household access to services dependent on reliable power, reviews resilience planning activities of electric utilities in Minnesota, and presents analysis of distribution grid performance in the face of extreme weather events with data from seven electric cooperatives dispersed throughout outstate Minnesota. This information is synthesized to provide considerations for resilience investment prioritization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1969

Environmental health program activities

Activities reported include studies on toxic air contaminants, excessive noise, poor lighting, food sanitation, water pollution, and exposure to nonionizing radiation as health hazards. Formulations for a radiological health manual provide guidance to personnel in the procurement and safe handling of radiation producing equipment and Apollo mission planning. A literature search and development of a water analysis laboratory are outlined to obtain information regarding microbiological problems involving potable water, waste management, and personal hygiene.

Bergtholdt, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Conditions for lightning strikes to an airplane in a thunderstorm

Conditions conducive to lightning strikes on aircraft were determined through the 1982 Storm Hazards Program. UHF-radar and SPANDAR were used to guide a NASA F-106B research aircraft through the upper regions of active thunderstorms to facilitate direct lightning strikes to the aircraft. Analysis of radar echoes from lightning at the moments of the strikes suggests that the aircraft itself triggers the lightning, in both stormy and nonstormy clouds, and that the induced flashes are not much different from naturally occurring intra-cloud flashes. The highest risk for a direct strike in the upper portions of a thunderstorm occurred where the ambient temperature was -40 C or colder, where turbulence and precipitation were negligible to light, and where the lightning flash rate was no greater than 5 flashes per minute.

Mazur, V.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA): Assessment of the purge, vent and drain subsystem

The results of the Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA) of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Critical Items List (CIL) are presented. The IOA effort first completed an analysis of the Purge, Vent and Drain (PV and D) hardware, generating draft failure modes and potential critical items. To preserve independence, this analysis was accomplished without reliance upon the results contained within the NASA FMEA/CIL documentation. The IOA results were then compared to the NASA FMEA/CIL baseline with proposed Post 51-L updates included. A resolution of each discrepancy from the comparison is provided through additional analysis as required. This report documents the results of that comparison for the Orbiter PV and D hardware. The PV and D Subsystem controls the environment of unpressurized compartments and window cavities, senses hazardous gases, and purges Orbiter/ET disconnect.

Bynum, M. C., III↗

NASA NTRS2000

Toxicological Risks During Human Space Exploration

The goal of toxicological risk assessment of human space flight is to identify and quantify significant risks to astronaut health from air pollution inside the vehicle or habitat, and to develop a strategy for control of those risks. The approach to completing a toxicological risk assessment involves data and experience on the frequency and severity of toxicological incidents that have occurred during space flight. Control of these incidents depends on being able to understand their cause from in-flight and ground-based analysis of air samples, crew reports of air quality, and known failures in containment of toxic chemicals. Toxicological risk assessment in exploration missions must be based on an evaluation of the unique toxic hazards presented by the habitat location. For example, lunar and Martian dust must be toxicologically evaluated to determine the appropriate control measures for exploration missions. Experience with near-earth flights has shown that the toxic products from fires present the highest risk to crew health from air pollution. Systems and payload leaks also present a significant hazard. The health risk from toxicity associated with materials offgassing or accumulation of human metabolites is generally well controlled. Early tests of lunar and Martian dust simulants have shown that each posses the potential to cause fibrosis in the lung in a murine model. Toxicological risks from air pollutants in space habitats originate from many sources. A number of risks have been identified through near-earth operations; however, the evaluation of additional new risks present during exploration missions will be a challenge.

James, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Trajectory-Based Performance Assessment for Aviation Weather Information

Based on an analysis of aviation decision-makers' time-related weather information needs, an abstraction of the aviation weather decision task was developed, that involves 4-D intersection testing between aircraft trajectory hypertubes and hazardous weather hypervolumes. The framework builds on the hypothesis that hazardous meteorological fields can be simplified using discrete boundaries of surrogate threat attributes. The abstractions developed in the framework may be useful in studying how to improve the performance of weather forecasts from the trajectory-centric perspective, as well as for developing useful visualization techniques of weather information.

Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence↗

NASA NTRS1983

Addressee Errors in ATC Communications: The Call Sign Problem

Communication errors involving aircraft call signs were portrayed in reports of 462 hazardous incidents voluntarily submitted to the ASRS during an approximate four-year period. These errors resulted in confusion, disorder, and uncoordinated traffic conditions and produced the following types of operational anomalies: altitude deviations, wrong-way headings, aborted takeoffs, go arounds, runway incursions, missed crossing altitude restrictions, descents toward high terrain, and traffic conflicts in flight and on the ground. Analysis of the report set resulted in identification of five categories of errors involving call signs: (1) faulty radio usage techniques, (2) call sign loss or smearing due to frequency congestion, (3) confusion resulting from similar sounding call signs, (4) airmen misses of call signs leading to failures to acknowledge or readback, and (5) controller failures regarding confirmation of acknowledgements or readbacks. These error categories are described in detail and several associated hazard mitigating measures that might be aken are considered.

Monan, W. P.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The MSP 2001 Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA)

A chemical analysis of soil-water mixtures and the first microscopic images of martian soil will be among the results to be returned by the Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA) payload on the Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Lander. Sponsored by the Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) enterprise, MECA's primary goal is to evaluate potential geochemical and environmental hazards that may confront future martian explorers, and to guide HEDS scientists in the development of high fidelity Mars soil simulants. As a survey of soil properties, the MECA data set will also be rich in information relevant to basic geology, paleoclimate, and exobiology. The integrated MECA payload contains a wet-chemistry laboratory, a microscopy station, an electrometer to characterize the electrostatics of the soil and its environment, and arrays of material patches to study the abrasive and adhesive properties of soil grains. MECA is allocated a mass of 10 kg and a peak power usage of 15 W within an enclosure of 35 x 25 x 15 cm. The Wet Chemistry Laboratory (WCL) consists of four identical cells that will accept samples from surface and subsurface regions accessible to the Lander's robotic arm, mix them with water, and perform extensive analysis of the solution. Ion-selective electrodes and related sensors will evaluate total dissolved solids, redox potential, pH, and the concentration of many soluble ions and gases. Cyclic voltammetry will address oxidants, and anodic stripping voltammetry will probe potentially hazardous trace metals. MECA's microscopy station combines optical and atomic-force microscopy (AFM) in a controlled illumination environment to image dust and soil particles from millimeters to nanometers in size. Careful selection of substrates and an abrasion tool allows experimental study of size distribution, adhesion, abrasion, hardness, color, shape, aggregation, magnetic and other properties. Mounted on the end of the robot arm, MECA's electrometer consists of four types of sensors: an electric field meter, several triboelectricity monitors, an ion gauge, and a thermometer. Tempered only by ultra-violet- light-induced ions and a low-voltage break-down threshold, the dry, cold, dusty martian environment presents an imposing electrostatic hazard to both robots and humans. In addition, the electrostatic environment is key to transport of dust and, consequently, martian meteorology. MECA will also observe natural dust accumulation on engineering materials. Viewed with the robot arm camera, the abrasion and adhesion plates are strategically placed to allow direct observation of the inter-action between materials and soils on a macroscopic scale. Materials of graded hardness are placed directly under the robot arm scoop to sense wear and soil hardness. A second array, placed on the lander deck, is deployed after the dust plume of landing has settled. It can be manipulated in a primitive fashion by the arm, first having dirt deposited on it from the scoop and subsequently shaken clean. Dust accumulation as a function of conductivity, magnetic field strength, and other parameters will be explored. The MECA instruments described above will assess potential hazards that the Martian soil might present to human explorers and their equipment. In addition, MECA will provide information on the composition of ancient surface water environments, observing microscopic evidence of geological (and biological?) processes, inferring soil and dust transport, comminution and weathering mechanisms, and characterizing soil horizons that might be encountered during excavation. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Hecht, M. H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of semivolatile organics in liquid radioactive residue using sorptive stir bar and solvent back-extraction

Current methods for semivolatiles analysis in radioactive samples can produce large volumes of radioactive solvent residue. A method utilizing stir-bar sorptive extraction has been explored in this work for its applicability to radioactive waste samples. This low solvent analytical method may accelerate remediation, minimize hazardous solvent waste, and reduce exposure risk to workers. Organic compounds (polyaromatic hydrocarbons, chlorinated aromatics, and phenolic compounds) were chosen as surrogates for common Liquid Waste System (LWS) contaminants at Savannah River Site (Aiken, SC). Stir-bar extraction parameters (extraction time, matrix modification, and effective pH range) and solvent back extraction parameters (solvent type, volume, and extraction time) were optimized experimentally for the chosen compounds. Affinity of the stir-bar extraction polymer to radionuclides Cs-137 and Am-241 was observed to determine radionuclide concentration effects. The stir-bar method achieved mean recovery of 100 ± 0.7% (1σ), relative to 114 ± 7% using solvent extraction, while reducing weekly method hands-on time by 93.4% and solvent volume consumption by 99.3%. Sensitivity was improved by 378% in simulated tank waste and 278% in real-world LWS matrix, relative to solvent extraction. This work has produced a safe and optimized method for the low solvent analysis of organics in legacy radioactive tank waste by stir-bar sorptive extraction.

GC-MS↗

NASA NTRS1983

Flight in low-level wind shear

Results of studies of wind shear hazard to aircraft operation are summarized. Existing wind shear profiles currently used in computer and flight simulator studies are reviewed. The governing equations of motion for an aircraft are derived incorporating the variable wind effects. Quantitative discussions of the effects of wind shear on aircraft performance are presented. These are followed by a review of mathematical solutions to both the linear and nonlinear forms of the governing equations. Solutions with and without control laws are presented. The application of detailed analysis to develop warning and detection systems based on Doppler radar measuring wind speed along the flight path is given. A number of flight path deterioration parameters are defined and evaluated. Comparison of computer-predicted flight paths with those measured in a manned flight simulator is made. Some proposed airborne and ground-based wind shear hazard warning and detection systems are reviewed. The advantages and disadvantages of both types of systems are discussed.

Frost, W.↗