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At least 1,603 records · Page 89

Highly Resolved Reference Projections of Building Energy Use for the Contiguous United States: Building Sector Energy Baselines, Projection Methods, and Results

This report describes one methodology of projecting energy consumption of the US residential and commercial building sectors using NREL's ResStock™ and ComStock™ as well as growth rates derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The impetus for this work is to provide an intermediate method for compiling demand-side sectoral energy projections that is suitable for grid-scale analysis, such as NREL's Standard Scenarios. ResStock and ComStock are physics-based and statistically representative building stock models of the US residential and commercial sector, respectively. Using the 2012 actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, the sectoral energy baselines are simulated and then segmented along key dimensions (e.g., geography, dwelling/building type). The segmented results are then scaled using the corresponding annual growth rates derived from the 2021 AEO reference case to produce energy projections out to 2050. The compiled result is a demand-side grid model (dsgrid) data set suitable for use in NREL's large-scale grid models, such as the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). This simple projection method does not endogenously represent how the building stock could evolve through time. Most notably, it does not reflect large-scale electrification, for example, the conversion of space heating, water heating, clothes drying, and cooking from primary fossil fuels to electricity, as this is not part of AEO's reference case assumptions. Nonetheless this approach is more resolved and potentially extensible compared to the current method used by Standard Scenarios's reference case, which augments a sector's total load based on a single growth rate from AEO.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Seasonally Frozen Soil Monitoring Using Passive Microwave Satellite Data and Simulation Modeling

Satellite data and simulation modeling were used to assess seasonally frozen soils in the central US - Canada borders area (46-53 degrees N and 96-108 degrees). We used Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) satellite data to delineate the top layer of frozen soils. SMMR is a passive microwave sensor having five channels (6.6, 10, 18, 21 and 37 GHz) with a horizontal and vertical polarization. SMRR data are available between 1978-1987 with noon and midnight overpass and footprint sizes between 25 km and 150 km. SMMR data were processed from resampled 1/4 degree grid cells during fall freeze-up and spring thaw (fall 1985 - spring 1987). The dielectric properties of a target may directly affect the satellite signal. The dielectric value is an order of magnitude smaller for frozen soil water. There are other significant changes to the emitted microwave signal from changes to the surface physical temperature, attenuation of the soil signal from plant water and soil moisture. We further characterized the temporal and spatial dynamic of frozen soils using the FroST (Frozen Soil Temperature) simulation model. The FroST model was used to further predict soil water and ice content, and soil temperature. SMMR results were compared versus 5-cm soil temperature data from available weather stations (14 in Canada and 11 for available months in the US). SMMR data were analyzed as a function of frequency, polarization, polarization difference, and "frequency gradient". In addition, vegetation density, physical temperature and snow depth were also considered. Preliminary analysis of SMMR derived frozen soil/thaw classification using a simple threshold classification indicates a mean overall classification accuracy by season of 85 percent. A sensitivity analysis for different soils with varying amounts of snow was conducted with FroST, which showed that the amount of snow, and the time of snow fall and melt affected the ice and water content, and depth of thaw. These results indicate a potential source of flooding and erosion under conditions when melting snow and spring rains provide a source of infiltrating water.

Toll, D. L.↗

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

LandScan Global 2023: Silver Edition

For a quarter of a century, the LandScan Global (LSG) project has annually released a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset representing the ambient or unwarned population at a 30 arcsecond resolution. LSG supports a range of applications such as emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security for understanding populations at risk. The 2023 release of LSG, the LandScan Silver Edition, represents a major methodological leap forward while also leveraging previous knowledge—the previous year was the baseline for the current annual update carrying forward valuable knowledge of the built environment for the past quarter century—to train the machine learning models. Compared with annual releases over the past 24years, multiple advancements were made to different aspects of the methodology to achieve reproducibility, transparency, and consistent global propagation of solutions to modeling or population distribution issues identified during the review process. These novel changes include incorporation of the latest available geospatial inputs across the globe, machine learning models instead of manual modifications, population feature importance analysis, open-source solutions vs. proprietary software, generation of multiple global versions, analytic validations, and human-in-the-loop revisions to produce the final version. Additionally, algorithms—such as anomaly detection—were introduced to quickly identify areas of focus to develop a new and robust systematic review. Significant changes in modeled population distributions were observed between the 2022 and 2023 releases, largely attributable to improvements in data and methods and discussed thoroughly within this report. In summation, the LandScan Silver Edition leverages the best of the past quarter century of LSG legacy knowledge and continues a tradition of applying cutting-edge enhancements to serve as a new benchmark for accurate, actionable gridded population data

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗

Cardinality-Regularized Hawkes-Granger Model

We propose a new sparse Granger-causal learning framework for temporal event data. We focus on a specific class of point processes called the Hawkes process. We begin by pointing out that most of the existing sparse causal learning algorithms for the Hawkes process suffer from a singularity in maximum likelihood estimation. As a result, their sparse solutions can appear only as numerical artifacts. In this paper, we propose a mathematically well-defined sparse causal learning framework based on a cardinality-regularized Hawkes process, which remedies the pathological issues of existing approaches. We leverage the proposed algorithm for the task of instance-wise causal event analysis, where sparsity plays a critical role. We validate the proposed framework with two real use-cases, one from the power grid and the other from the cloud data center management domain.

Ide, Tsuyoshi↗

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998): Microphysics Validation using TRMM Data

A simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998) has been performed using multiple grid nesting to 2 km grid spacing. The simulation is initialized with large-scale analysis fields from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasts and with a bogus vortex inserted via four-dimensional variational data assimilation. The simulation reproduces well the storm intensity, the wavenumber 1 asymmetry of the precipitation field, the occurrence of deep convective towers within the eyewall, and the presence of broad stratiform precipitation regions. Radar and microwave observations from TRMM are used to validate the simulation. Result show excessive graupel production and, to some extent, excessive precipitation production in general by the model. Additional simulations are conducted (and validated by TRMM data) to test parameters and assumptions within the microphysics parameterizations including particle size distributions, particle densities, and assumptions that impact the partitioning of precipitation mass between graupel and snow.

Starr, David OC.↗

CAPRI: Using a Geometric Foundation for Computational Analysis and Design

CAPRI (Computational Analysis Programming Interface) is a software development tool intended to make computerized design, simulation and analysis faster and more efficient. The computational steps traditionally taken for most engineering analysis (Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), structural analysis, etc.) are: Surface Generation, usually by employing a Computer Aided Design (CAD) system; Grid Generation, preparing the volume for the simulation; Flow Solver, producing the results at the specified operational point; Post-processing Visualization, interactively attempting to understand the results. It should be noted that the structures problem is more tractable than CFD; there are fewer mesh topologies used and the grids are not as fine (this problem space does not have the length scaling issues of fluids). For CFD, these steps have worked well in the past for simple steady-state simulations at the expense of much user interaction. The data was transmitted between phases via files. In most cases, the output from a CAD system could go IGES files. The output from Grid Generators and Solvers do not really have standards though there are a couple of file formats that can be used for a subset of the gridding (i.e. PLOT3D) data formats and the upcoming CGNS). The user would have to patch up the data or translate from one format to another to move to the next step. Sometimes this could take days. Instead of the serial approach to analysis, CAPRI takes a geometry centric approach. CAPRI is a software building tool-kit that refers to two ideas: (1) A simplified, object-oriented, hierarchical view of a solid part integrating both geometry and topology definitions, and (2) programming access to this part or assembly and any attached data. The connection to the geometry is made through an Application Programming Interface (API) and not a file system.

Haimes, Robert↗

Statistical moments of VIIRS night-time lights

Annual VIIRS global night-time lights traditionally report mean radiance levels after filtering to remove moonlit and cloudy data followed by outlier removal. The mean is the first statistical moment, but there are three other statistical moments (variance, skew and kurtosis) that are currently not produced globally. In this study, we generated VIIRS day/night band multiyear and annual statistical moments for a widely dispersed set of test areas. The moments were calculated from 15 arc second nightly temporal profiles spanning 2012-2020, filtered to exclude cloudy and sunlit data, with radiance adjustments to reduce view angle and lunar illuminance effects. The moment data were examined in two ways: (1) Geospatial grids-which reveal zonation and temporal changes present in urban areas and (2) Scattergrams of moment pairs. The variance versus mean scattergram exhibits several distinct data clusters used to define five zones: core lighting, dark-erratics, mid-erratics, bright-erratics and bright and seteady. The results indicate that the information content of VIIRS night-time lights can be augmented if all four statistical moments are calculated.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Polar microwave brightness temperatures from Nimbus-7 SMMR: Time series of daily and monthly maps from 1978 to 1987

A time series of daily brightness temperature gridded maps (October 25, 1978 through August 15, 1987) were generated from all ten channels of the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer orbital data. This unique data set can be utilized in a wide range of applications including heat flux, ocean circulation, ice edge productivity, and climate studies. Two sets of data in polar stereographic format are created for the Arctic region: one with a grid size of about 30 km on a 293 by 293 array similar to that previously utilized for the Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer, while the other has a grid size of about 25 km on a 448 by 304 array identical to what is now being used for the DMSP Scanning Multichannel Microwave Imager. Data generated for the Antaractic region are mapped using the 293 by 293 grid only. The general technique for mapping, and a quality assessment of the data set are presented. Monthly and yearly averages are also generated from the daily data and sample geophysical ice images and products derived from the data are given. Contour plots of monthly ice concentrations derived from the data for October 1978 through August 1987 are presented to demonstrate spatial and temporal detail which this data set can offer, and to show potential research applications.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

Resilient Information Architecture Platform for Smart Grid (RIAPS)

A number of emerging trends will substantially alter the operation and control of the electric grid over the next several decades. These trends include ensuring resiliency under severe weather events, increasing integration of renewable electricity generation, supporting changing electricity demand patterns, and the improving cost effectiveness of distributed energy resources. To address these challenges, the future “Smart Grid” management will need to transition from centralized to coordinated distributed control paradigm. Reliable operation of the Smart Grid depends on distributed intelligence realized through software applications that run on distributed computing devices attached to the power system to collect data and collaboratively manage resources. However, much of the existing software for Smart Grid-enabled devices is either proprietary or developed with custom solutions, which limits interoperability among the heterogeneous devices and hinders the ability to manage system-level reliability, security, and resiliency requirements. Additionally, this approach makes Smart Grid applications hard to maintain, evolve, verify, and replace; resulting in high development and deployment costs. Further development of the Smart Grid requires a reusable software base-layer to move from hard-coded functionality to a plug-and-play architecture capable of managing system-level objectives and constraints in addition to providing consistent common services across heterogeneous devices and applications. Vanderbilt University, in collaboration with North Carolina State University and Washington State University has developed a foundation ‘software platform’ for developing and deploying robust, reliable, effective and secure software applications for the Smart Grid. The Resilient Information Architecture Platform for the Smart Grid (RIAPS) provides core services for building effective and powerful smart grid applications. It offers unique services for real-time data dissemination, fault tolerance, and coordination across apps distributed over the network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DSS-SimPy-RL (Open-DSS and SimPy based Cyber-Physical RL environment) [SWR-23-29]

Recently, numerous data-driven approaches to control an electric grid using machine learning techniques have been investigated. With the advancement of reinforcement learning (RL) based techniques, gradually the conventional optimization based solvers are being replaced with RL approach where there is uncertainty in the environment such as renewable generation or cyber system emulation. However, to train an agent efficiently, it requires numerous interactions with an environment to learn the best policies. There are numerous RL environments for the power systems based on some well-known simulators, similarly there are environment for communication domains. While majority of the cyber emulators are based in an UNIX environment, the power simulators are based in the Windows-based operating system, the generation of cyber-physical mixed domain RL environment has been challenging. Existing co-simulation methods are efficient but resource and time intensive to generate large scale data set for training RL agents. Hence, this software focuses on development and validation of a mixed domain RL environment using Open DSS for the physical side and leverages a discrete event simulator python package, SimPy, for cyber-side emulation which is Operating Systems agnostic. Further utilizing this software co-simulation and training RL agents for re-routing based resilient control for network reconfiguration and volt-var control in power distribution feeder are performed.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗

The computation of steady 3-D separated flows over aerodynamic bodies at incidence and yaw

This paper describes the implementation of a general purpose 3-D NS code and its application to simulated 3-D separated vortical flows over aerodynamic bodies. The thin-layer Reynolds-averaged NS equations are solved by an implicit approximate factorization scheme. The pencil data structure enables the code to run on very fine grids using only limited incore memories. Solutions of a low subsonic flow over an inclined ellipsoid are compared with experimental data to validate the code. Transonic flows over a yawed elliptical wing at incidence are computed and separations occurred at different yaw angles are discussed.

Pulliam, T. H.↗

Cartesian based grid generation/adaptive mesh refinement

Grid adaptation has recently received attention in the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) community as a means to capture the salient features of a flowfield by either moving grid points of a structured or by adding cells in an unstructured manner. An approach based on a background cartesian mesh is investigated from which the geometry is 'cut' out of the mesh. Once the mesh is obtained, a solution on this coarse grid is found, that indicates which cells need to be refined. This process of refining/solving continues until the flow is grid refined in terms of a user specified global parameter (such as drag coefficient etc.). The advantages of this approach are twofold: the generation of the base grid is independent of the topology of the bodies or surfaces around/through which the flow is to be computed, and the resulting grid (in uncut regions) is highly isotropic, so that the truncation error is low. The flow solver (which, along with the grid generation is still under development) uses a completely unstructured data base, and is a finite volume, upwinding scheme. Current and future work will address generating Navier-Stokes suitable grids by using locally aligned and normal face/cell refining. The attached plot shows a simple grid about two turbine blades.

Coirier, William J.↗

Unstructured grids for sonic-boom analysis

A fast and efficient unstructured grid scheme is evaluated for sonic-boom applications. The scheme is used to predict the near-field pressure signatures of a body of revolution at several body lengths below the configuration, and those results are compared with experimental data. The introduction of the 'sonic-boom grid topology' to this scheme make it well suited for sonic-boom applications, thus providing an alternative to conventional multiblock structured grid schemes.

Fouladi, Kamran↗

Spectroscopic Determination of the Physical Conditions in Hot Optically Thin Sources

Astrophysical Plasma Emission Database - APED consists of atomic data, primarily theoretical, needed to calculate X-ray through optical emission spectra of hot thermal plasmas. These data are supplemented by experimental values, such as laboratory plasma wave- lengths, and are validated by experiment only rarely. Thus the comparison of predicted spectra to astrophysical spectra serves as invaluable feedback on the quality of the models. Following up on unfavorable comparisons, we have communicated atomic data needs to atomic theorists and experimental plasma physicists so that improvements can be made to the database. The database is now reasonably complete from approx. 1 to 30 A, and from - 90 to 180 A, with significant gaps remaining in the range 30 to 90 A. Astrophysical Plasma Emission Code - APEC uses the APED data as inputs and computes level populations and line emissivities using a rate matrix solver. Tabulated models for a fine grid of temperatures and densities can be applied to observational data. The current public version of APEC output uses an input ionization balance model, assuming CIE; however, we have a working version to calculate the ionization state of the gas. We will begin testing non-equilibrium ionization (NEI) models over the next year - we are now finalizing the atomic database needed to perform the ionization state calculations. At that time, the code will be made public. We have developed optimized error codes, additional testing protocols and substantial documentation, in preparation for this public release. Secondarily, we have begun to investigate the use of APED and APEC for X-ray photoionized plasma, beginning with opacity modeling (e.g. warm absorbers). Application to bright AGN Chandra grating spectra suggests that the accurate wavelengths in APED are of great importance to fitting the data. We are exploring additional subroutines to APEC to extend its usefulness for X-ray photoionized plasma, e.g. to include collisional or photo-excitation of metastable levels for absorption.

Oliversen, Ronald J.↗

Wall-modeled LES of Flow Over a Gaussian Bump

We perform wall-modeled large eddy simulations (WMLES) of turbulent flow over a Gaussian-shaped bump geometry, to assess its performance in the acceleration and separation regions of the flow. An unstructured finite-volume solver is used along with an equilibrium wall model. The Mach number of the oncoming flow selected for the simulation is 0.176, and two Reynolds numbers (Re) are simulated that are about 10000 and 36000 based on boundary layer thickness upstream of the bump. Spanwise periodic results for the lower Re case are compared with the available DNS data, while the full three-dimensional simulation results for the higher Re case are compared to available experimental data. Sensitivity of WMLES results are assessed for a number of factors including grid resolution, wall model exchange location, type of wall model, and unstructured grid topology. The WMLES results for the lower Re case agree well with available DNS data in terms of the wall pressure variation, velocity and turbulent stress profile comparisons. The skin-friction predictions show a reduced tendency to separate. This appears to be accentuated for the higher Re case, for the medium resolution grid used in this study, where WMLES does not predict any flow separation in the mean, which is in contrast to the large separation bubble observed in the experiments.

turbulence↗

Modeling Electric Vehicle Charging Load Using Origin-Destination Data

The accelerating adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) poses challenges to the power grid, necessitating precise representation of mobility patterns for effective infrastructure upgrades. Traditional simulation-based charging demand estimation faces limitations in generating trip chains reflective of actual travel patterns without complex network modeling. Hence, an innovative agent-based trip chain generation model is introduced to overcome these challenges. Drawing from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the NextGen NHTS origin-destination add-on data for Clarke County, Georgia, this study proposes a simulation method capturing both temporal and spatial mobility patterns without relying on extensive network topology data. The resulting trip chains predict EV charging load at the Census Block Group level, validated with a 1.03 correlation to actual trip counts, affirming their reflective accuracy. Two charging scenarios, residential-only and charging-everywhere, reveal distinct demand profiles. The charging-everywhere scenario aligns closely with the trip profile, while the residential-only scenario exhibits an afternoon peak slightly surpassing the former. This study contributes a data-driven charging demand estimation methodology, offering critical insights for grid resiliency planning amid the evolving landscape of EV adoption.

Pan, Melrose↗