Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “event driven”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,603 records · Page 89
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Anthropogenically driven climate and landscape change effects on inland water carbon dynamics: What have we learned and where are we going?

Inland waters serve as important hydrological connections between the terrestrial landscape and oceans but are often overlooked in global carbon (C) budgets and Earth System Models. Terrestrially derived C entering inland waters from the watershed can be transported to oceans but over 83% is either buried in sediments or emitted to the atmosphere before reaching oceans. Anthropogenic pressures such as climate and landscape changes are altering the magnitude of these C fluxes in inland waters. Here, we synthesize the most recent estimates of C fluxes and the differential contributions across inland waterbody types (rivers, streams, lakes, reservoirs, and ponds), including recent measurements that incorporate improved sampling methods, small waterbodies, and dried areas. Across all inland waters, we report a global C emission estimate of 4.40 Pg C/year (95% confidence interval: 3.95–4.85 Pg C/year), representing a 13% increase from the most recent estimate. In this work, we also review the mechanisms by which the most globally widespread anthropogenically driven climate and landscape changes influence inland water C fluxes. The majority of these drivers are expected to influence terrestrial C inputs to inland waters due to alterations in terrestrial C quality and quantity, hydrological pathways, and biogeochemical processing. We recommend four research priorities for the future study of anthropogenic alterations to inland water C fluxes: (1) before-and-after measurements of C fluxes associated with climate change events and landscape changes, (2) better quantification of C input from land, (3) improved assessment of spatial coverage and contributions of small inland waterbodies to C fluxes, and (4) integration of dried and drawdown areas to global C flux estimates. Improved measurements of inland water C fluxes and quantification of uncertainty in these estimates will be vital to understanding both terrestrial C losses and the “moving target” of inland water C emissions in response to rapid and complex anthropogenic pressures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Moisture Recycling through Pumping by Mesoscale Convective Systems

Abstract Moisture recycling, the contribution of local evapotranspiration (ET) to precipitation, has been studied using bulk models assuming a well-mixed atmosphere. The latter is inconsistent with a climatologically stratified atmosphere that slants across latitudes. Reconciling the two views requires an understanding of overturning associated with different weather systems. In this study, we aim to better understand moisture recycling associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Using a convection-permitting WRF simulation equipped with water vapor tracers (WRF-WVT), we tag moisture from terrestrial ET in the U.S. Southern Great Plains during May 2015, when more than 20 MCS events occurred and produced significant precipitation and flooding. Water budget analysis reveals that approximately 76% of terrestrial ET is advected away from the region while the remaining 24% of terrestrial ET is “pumped” upward within the region, accounting for 12% of precipitation. Moisture recycling peaks during early night hours (1800–2400 LT) due to the mixing of the daytime accumulated ET by active convection. By focusing on five “diurnally driven” MCSs with less large-scale circulation influence than other MCSs during the same period, we find an upright pumping of terrestrial ET at the MCS initiation and development stages, which diverges into two branches during the MCS mature and decaying stages. One branch in the upper level advects the ET-sourced moisture downstream, while the other branch in the mid-to-upper level contributes to the trailing precipitation upstream. Overall, our analysis depicts a pumping mechanism associated with MCSs that mixes local ET vertically, highlighting its specific contributions to enhancing convective precipitation processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technical Issues in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Ratification Debate: A 20 Year Retrospective

Two decades after the U.S. Senate declined in 1999 to give its consent to ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the treaty remains in legal and political limbo. Legally, the treaty cannot enter into force without U.S. ratification. However, the Senate’s rejection does not strip the treaty of its force as an element of customary international law or alter the will of other signatories to see it enter into force. Politically, the debate over the virtues and flaws of the treaty remains as strong as ever, with some CTBT advocates pushing energetically for U.S. re-review while some opponents seek ways to “un-sign” the treaty. Meanwhile, despite the Senate’s rejection of the treaty, the United States acts in a manner consistent with its main obligations by maintaining a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing and providing financial support (as well as technical expertise) to the CTBT Organization (CTBTO)—in particular the CTBTO’s International Monitoring System (IMS). The CTBT may well remain in such limbo for a long time to come, unless some catalytic event comes along to re-shape national perceptions and priorities, one way or the other. The treaty’s future, whatever it might be, will be determined in part by how much perspectives might have changed in light of interim developments. Our purpose is to shed light on some of those developments and to assess their relevance. The 1999 ratification debate addressed a large number of issues. Rejection was driven by various policy and technical judgments. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine those technical judgments in light of what has been learned over the following two decades. On some technical matters, there was explicit recognition of extant uncertainties, as well as a conviction and hope that time would dispel them. To be doubly clear, our purpose is not to recommend a way forward on CTBT ratification. The policy judgments of 1999 and 2020 are beyond the scope of this paper. This technical re-examination proceeds as follows. It begins with a short background section to introduce the key technical matters in discussion in the U.S. ratification process. Then it moves systematically through each of those topics with a review of relevant background information, a discussion of key points in debate, an analysis of subsequent experience, and a current assessment. The historical analysis draws on many sources including the primary documents of the Congressional debate, the official article-by-article interpretation by the Department of State, and the statements of key players in the process. We also relied on key technical reports and publications by subject matter experts that have addressed in more detail many of the issues in our focus. These sources include the 2002 and 2012 reports of the National Academy of Sciences as well as publications by senior technical staff of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) who were actively involved in the ratification debate, including then-Laboratory Director Bruce Tarter. We also conducted several interviews with government officials from the 1990s, past laboratory directors, and other members of the scientific community. But, except where individuals are specifically cited by name, the judgments offered here are our own and should not be attributed to any other individual or to LLNL as such.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
NASA NTRS2009

Late Reduction Textures in Almahata Sitta Ureilite

The Almahata Sitta ureilite, derived from asteroid 2008 TC3, consists of many individual fragments recovered from the Nubian dessert strewn field [1]. Like most ureilites, it contains abundant carbon and exhibits examples of disequilibrium textures that record a late reduction event accompanied by rapid cooling (tens of degC/h) from high temperatures (1150-1300 C). Variations in Fe/Mg of silicate minerals are accompanied by variations in Fe/Mn, indicating loss of Fe into metal [2]. In coarser-grained fragments of Almahata Sitta, olivine exhibits irregular high mg# rims in contact with networks of interstitial metal 5- 20 microns in typical thickness. This is a common ureilite texture thought to be driven by the reaction of graphite to a CO gas phase and the concurrent reduction of FeO in olivine to Fe metal, with excess silica going primarily into pyroxene (2MgFeSiO4 + C approaches MgSiO4 + MgSiO3 + 2Fe + CO) [3, see also 4,5,6]. Other fragments of Almahata Sitta exhibit anomalous textures such as fine grain size, high porosity, and abundant graphite. Within these fragments pyroxene locally exhibits high-mg# rims in contact with metal and a discreet silica phase, suggesting that the reduction mechanism MgFeSi2O6 + C approaches MgSiO3 + Fe + SiO2 + CO. Metals in Almahata Sitta are particularly unaltered in comparison to ureilite finds. Variations in minor and trace element composition of this metal might partly result from localized dilution as iron is supplied by reduction of silicates.

Herrin, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Magnetic Reconnection as the Driver of the Solar Wind

We present EUV solar observations showing evidence for omnipresent jetting activity driven by small-scale magnetic reconnection at the base of the solar corona. We argue that the physical mechanism that heats and drives the solar wind at its source is ubiquitous magnetic reconnection in the form of small-scale jetting activity (i.e., a.k.a. jetlets). This jetting activity, like the solar wind and the heating of the coronal plasma, are ubiquitous regardless of the solar cycle phase. Each event arises from small-scale reconnection of opposite polarity magnetic fields producing a short-lived jet of hot plasma and Alfv´en waves into the corona. The discrete nature of these jetlet events leads to intermittent outflows from the corona, which homogenize as they propagate away from the Sun and form the solar wind. This discovery establishes the importance of small-scale magnetic reconnection in solar and stellar atmospheres in understanding ubiquitous phenomena such as coronal heating and solar wind acceleration. Based on previous analyses linking the switchbacks to the magnetic network, we also argue that these new observations might provide the link between the magnetic activity at the base of the corona and the switchback solar wind phenomenon. These new observations need to be put in the bigger picture of the role of magnetic reconnection and the diverse form of jetting in the solar atmosphere.

magnetic reconnection↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven prediction of α IIb β 3 integrin activation paths using manifold learning and deep generative modeling

The integrin heterodimer is a transmembrane protein critical for driving cellular process and is a therapeutic target in the treatment of multiple diseases linked to its malfunction. Activation of integrin involves conformational transitions between bent and extended states. Some of the conformations that are intermediate between bent and extended states of the heterodimer have been experimentally characterized, but the full activation pathways remain unresolved both experimentally due to their transient nature and computationally due to the challenges in simulating rare barrier crossing events in these large molecular systems. An understanding of the activation pathways can provide new fundamental understanding of the biophysical processes associated with the dynamic interconversions between bent and extended states and unveil new putative therapeutic targets. In this work, we apply nonlinear manifold learning to coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations of bent, extended, and two intermediate states of αI I b β3 integrin to learn a low-dimensional embedding of the configurational phase space. We then train deep generative models to learn an inverse mapping between the low-dimensional embedding and high-dimensional molecular space and use these models to interpolate the molecular configurations constituting the activation pathways between the experimentally characterized states. Furthermore, this work furnishes plausible predictions of integrin activation pathways and reports a generic and transferable multi-scale technique to predict transition pathways for biomolecular systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Melt-driven mechanochemical phase transformations in moderately exothermic powder mixtures

Typically, mechanochemical reactions between solid phases are either gradual (by deformation-induced mixing), or self-propagating (by exothermic chemical reaction). In this work, by means of a systematic kinetic analysis of the Bi–Te system reacting to Bi 2 Te 3 , we establish a third possibility: if one or more of the powder reactants has a low melting point and low thermal effusivity, it is possible that local melting can occur from deformation-induced heating. The presence of hot liquid then triggers chemical mixing locally. The molten events are constrained to individual particles, making them distinct from self-propagating reactions, and occur much faster than conventional gradual reactions. We demonstrate that the mechanism is applicable to a broad variety of materials systems, many of which have important functional properties. This mechanistic picture provides a new perspective as compared to conventional, gradual mechanochemical synthesis, where thermal effects are generally ignored.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chloride facilitates Mn(III) formation during photoassembly of the Photosystem II oxygen-evolving complex

The Mn 4 Ca oxygen-evolving complex (OEC) in Photosystem II (PSII) is assembled in situ from free Mn 2+ , Ca 2+ , and water. In an early light-driven step, Mn 2+ in a protein high-affinity site is oxidized to Mn 3+ . Using dual-mode electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy, we observed that Mn 3+ accumulation increases as chloride concentration increases in spinach PSII membranes depleted of all extrinsic subunits. At physiologically relevant pH values, this effect requires the presence of calcium. Here, when combined with pH studies, we conclude that the first Mn 2+ oxidation event in OEC assembly requires a deprotonation that is facilitated by chloride.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Fungal Disease Emergence and Spread

Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to colonize higher elevation lakes, only to be followed shortly by the emergence of fungal disease in the new habitats.

Tucker, Compton J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transients and Dayside Magnetospheric Interactions

Observations at and deep within the Earth’s dayside magnetosphere provide considerable evidence indicating that the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction is often unsteady. Bursty reconnection resulting in the formation of flux transfer events and transient auroral brightenings is common. Fluctuations in solar wind parameters may trigger some bursts of reconnection, while other bursts may result from intrinsic magnetopause instabilities. Large amplitude solitons often travel along the dayside magnetopause. Deeper within the dayside magnetosphere, quasi-periodic transient compressions energize radiation belt electrons and ring current ions. Most of these perturbations occur behind the quasi-parallel bow shock, indicating that they are driven by density structures generated by kinetic processes within the foreshock. This presentation compares and contrasts the amplitudes and occurrence patterns of density and dynamic pressure perturbations intrinsic to the solar wind with those generated within the foreshock, specifies how they move across the magnetosphere, examines recent global MHD simulation results for their interaction with the bow shock, magnetosheath, and magnetopause. It then outlines new paths toward quantifying the significance of bursty reconnection to the overall interaction, via new imaging and analysis techniques.

D. G. Sibeck↗
DOE OSTI2015

ARE HALO-LIKE SOLAR CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS MERELY A MATTER OF GEOMETRIC PROJECTION EFFECTS?

We investigated the physical nature of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) based on the stereoscopic observations from the two STEREO spacecraft, Ahead and Behind (hereafter A and B), and the SOHO spacecraft. Sixty-two halo CMEs occurred as observed by SOHO LASCO C2 for the three-year period from 2010 to 2012 during which the separation angles between SOHO and STEREO were nearly 90°. In such quadrature configuration, the coronagraphs of STEREO, COR2-A and -B, showed the side view of those halo CMEs seen by C2. It has been widely believed that the halo appearance of a CME is caused by the geometric projection effect, i.e., a CME moves along the Sun-observer line. In other words, it would appear as a non-halo CME if viewed from the side. However, to our surprise, we found that 41 out of 62 events (66%) were observed as halo CMEs by all coronagraphs. This result suggests that a halo CME is not just a matter of the propagating direction. In addition, we show that a CME propagating normal to the line of sight can be observed as a halo CME due to the associated fast magnetosonic wave or shock front. We conclude that the apparent width of CMEs, especially halos or partial halos is driven by the existence and the extent of the associated waves or shocks and does not represent an accurate measure of the CME ejecta size. This effect needs to be taken into careful consideration in space weather predictions and modeling efforts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Synthetic OCP heterodimers are photoactive and recapitulate the fusion of two primitive carotenoproteins in the evolution of cyanobacterial photoprotection

The orange carotenoid protein (OCP) governs photoprotection in the majority of cyanobacteria. It is structurally and functionally modular, comprised of a C-terminal regulatory domain (CTD), an N-terminal effector domain (NTD) and a ketocarotenoid; the chromophore spans the two domains in the ground state and translocates fully into the NTD upon illumination. Using both the canonical OCP1 from Fremyella diplosiphon and the presumably more primitive OCP2 paralog from the same organism, we show that an NTD-CTD heterodimer forms when the domains are expressed as separate polypeptides. The carotenoid is required for the heterodimeric association, assembling an orange complex which is stable in the dark. Both OCP1 and OCP2 heterodimers are photoactive, undergoing light-driven heterodimer dissociation, but differ in their ability to reassociate in darkness, setting the stage for bioengineering photoprotection in cyanobacteria as well as for developing new photoswitches for biotechnology. Additionally, we reveal that homodimeric CTD can bind carotenoid in the absence of NTD, and name this truncated variant the C-terminal domain-like carotenoid protein (CCP). This finding supports the hypothesis that the OCP evolved from an ancient fusion event between genes for two different carotenoid-binding proteins ancestral to the NTD and CTD. We suggest that the CCP and its homologs constitute a new family of carotenoproteins within the NTF2-like superfamily found across all kingdoms of life.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Investigation of Plasmas Having Complex, Dynamic Evolving Morphology

Three different types of plasmas have been investigated using both experimental and theoretical methods. The first type of plasma is dense, highly ionized, governed by magnetohydrodynamics, and highly dynamic. This plasma is relevant to solar coronal loops, astrophysical jets, and other situations where strong magnetic forces act on the plasma. A well-diagnosed laboratory experiment creates a magnetohydrodynamically driven highly collimated plasma jet. This jet undergoes a kink instability such that it rapidly develops a corkscrew shape. The kink causes lateral acceleration of the jet, and this lateral acceleration drives a Rayleigh-Taylor instability that in turn chokes the current flowing in the jet and causes a magnetic reconnection. The magnetic reconnection causes electron and ion heating as well as emission of whistler waves. This entire sequence of events has been observed, measured in detail, and related to theoretical models. The second type of plasma is a transient rf-produced plasma used as a seed plasma for the magnetohydrodynamic experiments described above. Detailed atomic physics ionization processes have been investigated and modeled. The third type of plasma that has been studied is a dusty plasma where the dust particles are spontaneously growing ice grains. The rapid growth of the ice grains to large size and their highly ordered alignment has been investigated as well as collective motion of the ice grains, including well-defined flows on the surface of nested toroids. In addition to the experimental work described above, several related theoretical models have been developed, most notably a model showing how a complex interaction between gravity and magnetic fields on extremely weakly ionized plasma in an accretion disk provides an electric power source that can drive astrophysical jets associated with the accretion disk. Eighteen papers reporting this work have been published in a wide variety of journals.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Empirical Indicators of Transmission Value in the Southeast United States

Concurrent differences in energy price between different parts of the electric grid are a key indicator of the value of additional transmission. In areas without a wholesale electricity market, such as the Southeast, an alternative indicator to price is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) system lambda data. This economic metric represents the minimized marginal production costs of thermal generators, including fuel and other variable operation and maintenance expenses. Balancing Authorities report a single system lambda for their entire balancing area. Most Southeastern lambdas exhibit sufficient price variation to support a transmission valuation analysis, although incomplete accounting of congestion costs or scarcity rents during peak load hours may underestimate the true value of transmission capacity. With transmission value defined as the annual average hourly absolute price difference between two regions and FERC’s system lambda data used as a price proxy, we find the following results in the Southeast region during 2012-2023 (reported in $\$2024$/MWh): Intra‐regional findings: Annual averages historically span $\$2$–$\$28$/MWh and average $\$12$/MWh in SERTP and span $\$4$–$\$19$/MWh and average $\$9$/MWh in FRCC, disregarding transmission value driven by anomalous data. The ranges of transmission value reported here are large, spanning an order of magnitude in some cases. Much of this variation is driven by year-to-year changes, with 2022 having a particularly high intra-regional transmission value due to elevated natural gas prices. Inter‐regional corridors: Annual average transmission values across three broader regions range from $\$6$ to $\$28$/MWh with a long-term average of $\$11$/MWh. Much of the transmission value is concentrated in a small portion of hours. Across all regions, severe weather—particularly polar vortex events in January 2018, February 2021, and December 2022—drives the largest price spreads. Seasonal patterns also emerge, with summer afternoons and fall mornings contributing consistently to transmission value, as for example between MISO and SOCO in 2023.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1978

Impulsive solar X-ray bursts

A set of 22 simple impulsive solar flares, identified in the OSO 5 hard X-ray data, has been analyzed together with coincident microwave and meter-wave radio observations. The rise times and fall times of the X-ray bursts are found to be highly correlated and effectively equal, strongly suggesting a flare-energizing mechanism that is reversible. The good time resolution available for these observations reveals that the microwave emission is influenced by an additional process, evident in the tendency of the microwave emission to peak later and decay more slowly than the symmetric X-ray bursts. Meter-wave emission is observed in coincidence with five events which also show strong time correlation between the X-ray and microwave burst structure. This meter-wave emission is characterized by U-burst radiation, indicating confinement of the flare source. The relationship found between the X-ray burst duration and the calculated flare diameter, together with the thermal character of the X-ray spectra, gives additional support to the hypothesis that the impulsive component is driven by adiabatic compression and expansion of a magnetically confined plasma which is the common primary source of both X-ray and microwave emission.

Crannell, C. J.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Impacts of air pollutants from fire and non-fire emissions on the regional air quality in Southeast Asia

Abstract. Severe haze events in Southeast Asia caused by particulate pollution have become more intense and frequent in recent years. Widespread biomass burning occurrences and particulate pollutants from human activities other than biomass burning play important roles in degrading air quality in Southeast Asia. In this study, numerical simulations have been conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem) to quantitatively examine the contributions of aerosols emitted from fire (i.e., biomass burning) versus non-fire (including fossil fuel combustion, and road dust, etc.) sources to the degradation of air quality and visibility over Southeast Asia. These simulations cover a time period from 2002 to 2008 and are driven by emissions from (a) fossil fuel burning only, (b) biomass burning only, and (c) both fossil fuel and biomass burning. The model results reveal that 39 % of observed low-visibility days (LVDs) can be explained by either fossil fuel burning or biomass burning emissions alone, a further 20 % by fossil fuel burning alone, a further 8 % by biomass burning alone, and a further 5 % by a combination of fossil fuel burning and biomass burning. Analysis of an 24 h PM 2.5 air quality index (AQI) indicates that the case with coexisting fire and non-fire PM 2.5 can substantially increase the chance of AQI being in the moderate or unhealthy pollution level from 23 to 34 %. The premature mortality in major Southeast Asian cities due to degradation of air quality by particulate pollutants is estimated to increase from ∼ 4110 per year in 2002 to ∼ 6540 per year in 2008. In addition, we demonstrate the importance of certain missing non-fire anthropogenic aerosol sources including anthropogenic fugitive and industrial dusts in causing urban air quality degradation. An experiment of using machine learning algorithms to forecast the occurrence of haze events in Singapore is also explored in this study. All of these results suggest that besides minimizing biomass burning activities, an effective air pollution mitigation policy for Southeast Asia needs to consider controlling emissions from non-fire anthropogenic sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Simulation of Atmospheric Blocking in a High‐Resolution Earth System Model: Projected Changes and Implications for Extreme Weather Events

Atmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. Here, in this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR; 25 km atm and 10 km ocean) to show that CESM-HR reduces biases in atmospheric blocking for both winter and summer, particularly for events lasting longer than 10 days. This improvement is partly due to reduced sea surface temperature biases at higher resolution. Additionally, applying a bias correction to the 500 hPa geopotential height further enhances blocking frequency simulations, highlighting the crucial role of the mean state. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, CESM-HR projects a decrease in wintertime blocking over regions such as the Euro-Atlantic and Chukchi-Alaska, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, summer blocking is expected to become more frequent and persistent, driven by weakened zonal winds. The blocking center shifts from historical locations over Scandinavia and eastern Russia to central Eurasia, significantly increasing blocking over the Ural region. Summer blocking frequency over the Scandinavia-Ural region may eventually surpass historical winter blocking over the Euro-Atlantic. This increase in summer blocking could exacerbate summer heatwaves in a warming climate, making severe heatwaves, like those observed recently, more common in the future.

Atmospheric blocking↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intensification of future subsurface marine heatwaves in an eddy-resolving model

A shift in depth range enables marine organisms to adapt to marine heatwaves (MHWs). Subsurface MHWs could limit this pathway, yet their response to climate warming remains unclear. Here, using an eddy-resolving Earth system model forced under a high emission scenario, we project a robust global increase in subsurface MHWs driven by rising subsurface mean temperatures and enhanced temperature variability. Historically, maximum MHW intensity occurs around 100m depth, which shifts to the faster-warming surface under greenhouse warming. However, removing the long-term warming trend yields an increase in subsurface MHW intensity and annual days greater than that at the surface, especially in large marine ecosystem regions, primarily due to increased variability. Additionally, days of the surface and subsurface concurrent event increase ten times more than those of individual events. Our study highlights a heightened threat to marine organisms under global warming, as the increased subsurface heatwaves reduce their refuge options.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗