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NASA NTRS2016

Climate Science for Decision-Making in the New York Metropolitan Region

New York City is one of the world's most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding, due to a high concentration of population and assets near a coastline exposed to warm-season tropical storms and cold -season Nor'easter storms. Among U.S. cities, New York City is second only to New Orleans in population living less than 4 ft above the local high tide. By the 2050s, average annual losses due to coastal flooding alone could exceed $2 billion for the combined New York City-Newark region. Perhaps the most iconic example of a vulnerable New York City asset is the financial district located at the southern tip of Manhattan, however low-lying coastal assets include the full complement of major highways, subways and tunnels, hospitals, schools, wastewater treatment plants, food distribution centers, and people's homes. Given the magnitude of the assets at risk, a compelling case can be made that long-term adaptation makes economic sense for New York City. Given New York's access to economic, human, and technological resources for resilience measures, the City may be able to achieve this resilience. The city's political environment-New York City is a place where climate science is generally not a partisan issue-and the city's experience with uncertainty and overall risk framing (e.g., financing of bond issues for multi-billion dollar infrastructure with multidecade expected lifetimes), encourage climate risk framing.

Horton, Radley↗

NASA NTRS2018

Intercomparison of Precipitation Estimates over the Arctic Ocean and Its Peripheral Seas from Reanalyses

Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean has a significant impact on the basin-scale freshwater and energy budgets but is one of the most poorly constrained variables in atmospheric reanalyses. Precipitation controls the snow cover on sea ice, which impedes the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, inhibiting sea ice growth. Thus, accurate precipitation amounts are needed to inform sea ice modeling, especially for the production of thickness estimates from satellite altimetry freeboard data. However, obtaining a quantitative estimate of the precipitation distribution in the Arctic is notoriously difficult because of a number of factors, including a lack of reliable, long-term in situ observations; difficulties in remote sensing over sea ice; and model biases in temperature and moisture fields and associated uncertainty of modeled cloud microphysical processes in the polar regions. Here, we compare precipitation estimates over the Arctic Ocean from eight widely used atmospheric reanalyses over the period 2000–16 (nominally the ‘‘new Arctic’’). We find that the magnitude, frequency, and phase of precipitation vary drastically, although interannual variability is similar. Reanalysis-derived precipitation does not increase with time as expected; however, an increasing trend of higher fractions of liquid precipitation (rainfall) is found. When compared with drifting ice mass balance buoys, three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and NCEP R2) produce realistic magnitudes and temporal agreement with observed precipitation events, while two products [MERRA, version 2 (MERRA-2), and CFSR] show large, implausible magnitudes in precipitation events. All the reanalyses tend to produce overly frequent Arctic precipitation. Future work needs to be undertaken to determine the specific factors in reanalyses that contribute to these discrepancies in the new Arctic.

Mcpartland, Linette N.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Small Stirling Technology Exploration Power for Future Space Science Missions

High efficiency dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) could be mission enabling for low power space applications such as small probes, landers rovers, and communication repeaters. These applications would contain science instruments and be distributed across planetary surfaces or near objects of interest where solar flux is insufficient for using solar cells. Small RPS could be used to provide power for sensing radiation, temperature, pressure, seismic activity, and other measurements of interest to planetary scientists. Small RPS would use fractional versions of the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) or Light Weight Radioisotope Heater Units (LWRHU), to heat power conversion technologies. Dynamic power systems are capable of three to four times higher conversion efficiency compared to static power conversion technologies, and would provide an equal amount of power using less fuel or more power using an equal amount of fuel. Providing spacecraft with more power could decrease duty cycling of basic functions and, therefore, increase the quality and abundance of science data. NASA GRC is developing a low power dynamic RPS that would convert heat from multiple LWRHU to one watt of usable direct current electric power for spacecraft instrumentation and communication. The power system could be used to charge batteries or capacitors for higher power burst usage. The initial design, called Small Stirling Technology Exploration Power (smallSTEP), is around 3 kg, 11 cm diameter X 32 cm long, and converts 8 watts of heat to one watt of electricity using a Stirling convertor. This low power conversion system represents a new class of RPS with power levels two orders of magnitude lower than prototypes currently being developed for space applications under NASA contracts. Development of the 1-watt RPS includes maturation of convertor and controller designs, performance evaluation of an evacuated metal foil insulation, and development of system interfaces. Initial demonstration of the subsystems has been completed in a laboratory environment and a higher fidelity system is being pursued for demonstration in relevant environments for use on small spacecraft needed to carry out future space science missions.

Wilson, Scott D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Small Stirling Technology Exploration Power for Future Space Science Missions

High efficiency dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) could be mission enabling for low power space applications such as small probes, landers rovers, and communication repeaters. These applications would contain science instruments and be distributed across planetary surfaces or near objects of interest where solar flux is insufficient for using solar cells. Small RPS could be used to provide power for sensing radiation, temperature, pressure, seismic activity, and other measurements of interest to planetary scientists. Small RPS would use fractional versions of the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) or Light Weight Radioisotope Heater Units (LWRHU), to heat power conversion technologies. Dynamic power systems are capable of three to four times higher conversion efficiency compared to static power conversion technologies, and would provide an equal amount of power using less fuel or more power using an equal amount of fuel. Providing spacecraft with more power could decrease duty cycling of basic functions and, therefore, increase the quality and abundance of science data. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is developing a low power dynamic RPS that would convert heat from multiple LWRHU to one watt of usable direct current electric power for spacecraft instrumentation and communication. The power system could be used to charge batteries or capacitors for higher power burst usage. The initial design, called Small Stirling Technology Exploration Power (smallSTEP), is around 3 kg, 11 cm diameter X 32 cm long, and converts 8 watts of heat to one watt of electricity using a Stirling convertor. This low power conversion system represents a new class of RPS with power levels two orders of magnitude lower than prototypes currently being developed for space applications under NASA contracts. Development of the 1-watt RPS includes maturation of convertor and controller designs, performance evaluation of an evacuated metal foil insulation, and development of system interfaces. Initial demonstration of the subsystems has been completed in a laboratory environment and a higher fidelity system is being pursued for demonstration in relevant environments for use on small spacecraft needed to carry out future space science missions.

Wilson, Scott↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hybrid Flush and Synthetic Air Data Filter for Entry Vehicle Atmospheric State Estimation

A hybrid flush/synthetic air data sensing filter utilizing Kalman-Schmidt and Rach-Tung-Striebel smoothers is developed to obtain entry vehicle atmosphere estimates. The filter/smoother blends information from pressure sensors distributed on the heatshield with measurements of the vehicle aerodynamic forces and moments computed from mass properties and inertial measurement unit data, and prior estimates of the atmosphere. The filter produces estimates of the atmospheric conditions along the entry trajectory, and systematic error estimates to reconcile differences between the pressure and aerodynamic data sources. The filter is applied to data acquired during the Mars Science Laboratory and Mars 2020 entry, descent, and landing at Gale crater and at Jezero crater, respectively. The results show that the hybrid filter produces estimates of the freestream flight condition with lower uncertainty than either the flush or synthetic air data algorithms. The filter accomplishes this result by incorporating additional data and computing estimates of systematic error parameters in the pressure data and the aerodynamic model to further reduce the uncertainties.

Christopher D. Karlgaard↗

NASA NTRS2011

New Challenges of Cloud Remote Sensing from Space

Clouds are recognized as a major source of uncertainties in predicting climate change. Lack of observational constraints on cloud processes has hindered the development of more reliable climate and weather models. With the advanced NASA EOS and A-Train sensors, we now have better knowledge about vertical distribution, water content, and occurrence frequency of global cloudiness. New ice water content (IWC) measurements from CloudSat and MLS have led to several improvements in model physics and parameterization schemes. MISR and GPS high-resolution data start to reveal deep insights on cloud processes and dynamicS in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). However, Earth sciences are still facing urgent needs to measure cloud microphysical properties, interactions between clouds and aerosol/precipitation, and processes that are coupled in 3-D space but not adequately sampled by the A-Train curtains or by the 2-D imageries. Submillimeter- wave, multi-angle imaging, and GPS radio occultation have emerged as promising remote sensing techniques to meet the challenges and enable new sciences for mid-tropospheric and PBL clouds.

Wu, Dong L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Use of Smart Meter Data to Estimate the Voltage Magnitude on the Primary Side of Distribution Service Transformers: Preprint

This paper develops a novel method to estimate the voltage magnitude on the primary side of distribution service transformers. The proposed method relies exclusively on smart meters, and therefore it is fully data-driven. This is an important feature because electric utilities have detailed models of only the primary network--that is, the network between the distribution substation and the primary side of service transformers that are installed closer to end-customer sites. The network that connects the secondary side of service transformers to end-customer sites, referred to as the secondary network, is simply represented by a lumped load. For each secondary network, the proposed method uses data acquired from only 2 smart meters: the closest and the farthest--in the sense of electrical distance--from the service transformer. As a reference to this feature, the proposed method is named SM2Vp. To our knowledge, this is the first time a method is shown to provide actionable information for real-time operation and control of power distribution grids using only two smart meters per secondary network. This is important because utilities have experienced barriers in managing and using large data sets for real-time operation and control. SM2Vp is primarily intended to provide pseudo-measurements for distribution system state estimation, but it can also be used directly for voltage control schemes. The performance of SM2Vp is demonstrated by numerical simulations carried out on three secondary network synthetic models and by using field data provided by a utility partner serving customers in southwestern California. A maximum relative error of approximately 3.9% or less is observed for the primary voltage magnitude estimates in all numerical experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1989

Remote sensing of the ring current using energetic neutral atoms

Energetic neutral atom images of the storm-time ring current obtained from the ISEE-1 spacecraft provide information for a 'zero-order' global model of the energetic ion distribution. With the assumption of isotropic pressure and magnetostatic, nonconvective pressure balance, the global system of electrical currents driven by the ion pressure can be calculated using Euler potentials for the divergenceless current density. Radial pressure gradients drive azimuthal currents, and azimuthal pressure gradients drive radial currents. The radial currents cause current lines in the inner magnetosphere to close in the ionosphere, forming a partial ring current. The intensities and locations of these field-aligned currents driven into and out of the ionosphere resemble those of the observed Region 2 current system, but not all observed properties of the Region 2 system are reproduced by the zero-order model.

Roelof, Edmond C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimation of wintertime cloud radiative effects in the Western Arctic, a function of cloud-moisture-coupling and sea ice conditions

Cloud radiative effects are estimated using up- and downward ground-based observations of broadband thermal infrared sensors in cloudy conditions which are provided by the ARM data repository. The ARM Surface Radiation measurement is analyzed. To study the cloud radiative effects, the observed thermal infrared measurements under cloudy conditions are analyzed together with microphysical cloud properties like liquid and ice water path obtained from the CloudNet algorithms applied to the remote-sensing instrumentation suite at the ARM site in Utqiagvik. Cloud observations have been sorted depending on the coupling of the cloud with upwind water vapor transport events that can interact with sea ice upwind. Statistics of surface net thermal fluxes and cloud water/ice properties show a distinguished distribution for coupled and decoupled clouds. It was found that coupled clouds contain more liquid water and are more efficient reduce the cooling of surface LW radiation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Validation of Airborne FMCW Radar Measurements of Snow Thickness Over Sea Ice in Antarctica

Antarctic sea ice and its snow cover are integral components of the global climate system, yet many aspects of their vertical dimensions are poorly understood, making their representation in global climate models poor. Remote sensing is the key to monitoring the dynamic nature of sea ice and its snow cover. Reliable and accurate snow thickness data are currently a highly sought after data product. Remotely sensed snow thickness measurements can provide an indication of precipitation levels, predicted to increase with effects of climate change in the polar regions. Airborne techniques provide a means for regional-scale estimation of snow depth and distribution. Accurate regional-scale snow thickness data will also facilitate an increase in the accuracy of sea ice thickness retrieval from satellite altimeter freeboard estimates. The airborne data sets are easier to validate with in situ measurements and are better suited to validating satellite algorithms when compared with in situ techniques. This is primarily due to two factors: better chance of getting coincident in situ and airborne data sets and the tractability of comparison between an in situ data set and the airborne data set averaged over the footprint of the antennas. A 28-GHz frequency modulated continuous wave (FMCW) radar loaned by the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets to the Australian Antarctic Division is used to measure snow thickness over sea ice in East Antarctica. Provided with the radar design parameters, the expected performance parameters of the radar are summarized. The necessary conditions for unambiguous identification of the airsnow and snowice layers for the radar are presented. Roughnesses of the snow and ice surfaces are found to be dominant determinants in the effectiveness of layer identification for this radar. Finally, this paper presents the first in situ validated snow thickness estimates over sea ice in Antarctica derived from an FMCW radar on a helicopterborne platform.

sea ice↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Critical Examination of Wind-Wave Spectral Functional Form

Traditionally, data from random ocean waves are presented in spectral functions. The spectra are the result of Fourier analysis. Fourier spectral analysis has dominated data analysis for, at least, the last hundred years. It has been the standard method for is examining the global amplitude-frequency distributions. Although Fourier transform valid under extremely general conditions, there are some crucial restrictions for the Fourier spectral analysis. The system must be linear, and the data must be stationary- otherwise, the resulting spectrum will make little physical sense. The stationarity requirement is also a common required criterion for most of other available data analysis methods. Nevertheless, few, if any, natural phenomena are linear and stationary. To compound these complications is the imperfection of our probes or numerical schemes the interactions of the imperfect probes even with a perfect linear system can make the final data nonlinear. Furthermore, all the available data are usually of finite duration. Under these conditions, Fourier analysis is of limited use, For lack of alternatives, however, Fourier analysis is still used to process such data. The loose application of Fourier analysis and the insouciant adoption of the stationary and linear assumptions may lead to misleading conclusions. Ocean waves are know to be nonlinear, and the wind system generating the wave field are seldom stationary- As a result, the traditional examination of the spectral form hardly made physical sense. A new method for analyzing nonlinear and nonstationary data has been developed. The key part is the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method with which any complicated data set can be decomposed into a finite and often small number of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) that serve as the basis of the representation of the data, This decomposition method is adaptive, and, therefore, highly efficient. The IMFs admit well-behaved Hilbert transforms, and yield instantaneous energy and frequency as functions of time that give sharp identifications of imbedded structures. The final presentation of the results is an energy-frequency-time distribution, designated as the Hilbert Spectrum. Among the main conceptual innovations is the introduction of the instantaneous frequencies for complicated data sets, which eliminate the need of spurious harmonics to represent nonlinear and nonstationary signals. The spectral forms of the ocean waves are very different. This new method offers the first physical meaningful view of the wave spectrum. Data from laboratory and field will be presented to illustrate the differences.

Huang, Norden E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of Tropical Ozone from SHADOZ with Remote Sensing Retrievals from Suomi-npp Ozone Mapping Profile Suite (OMPS)

The Ozone Mapping Profile Suite (OMPS) was launched October 28, 2011 on-board the Suomi NPP satellite (http://npp.gsfc.nasa.gov). OMPS is the next generation total column ozone mapping instrument for monitoring the global distribution of stratospheric ozone. OMPS includes a limb profiler to measure the vertical structure of stratosphere ozone down to the mid-troposphere. This study uses tropical ozonesonde profile measurements from the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ, http://croc.gsfc.nasa.gov/shadoz) archive to evaluate total column ozone retrievals from OMPS and concurrent measurements from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the predecessor of OMPS with a data record going back to 2004. We include ten SHADOZ stations that contain data overlapping the OMPS time period (2012-2013). This study capitalizes on the ozone profile measurements from SHADOZ to evaluate OMPS limb profile retrievals. Finally, we use SHADOZ sondes and OMPS retrievals to examine the agreement with the GEOS-5 Ozone Assimilation System (GOAS). The GOAS uses data from the OMI and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) to constrain the total column and stratospheric profiles of ozone. The most recent version of the assimilation system is well constrained to the total column compared with SHADOZ ozonesonde data.

OMPS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Topographic hydro-conditioning to resolve surface depression storage and ponding in a fully distributed hydrologic model

Land surface depressions play a central role in the transformation of rainfall to ponding, infiltration and runoff, yet digital elevation models (DEMs) used by spatially distributed hydrologic models that resolve land surface processes rarely capture land surface depressions at spatial scales relevant to this transformation. Methods to generate DEMs through processing of remote sensing data, such as optical and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) have favored surfaces without depressions to avoid adverse slopes that are problematic for many hydrologic routing methods. Here, in this study, we present a new topographic conditioning workflow, Depression-Preserved DEM Processing (D2P) algorithm, which is designed to preserve physically meaningful surface depressions for depression-integrated and efficient hydrologic modeling. D2P includes several features: (1) an adaptive screening interval for delineation of depressions, (2) the ability to filter out anthropogenic land surface features (e.g., bridges), (3) the ability to blend river smoothing (e.g., a general downslope profile) and depression resolving functionality. From a case study in the Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed, D2P successfully resolved 86% of the ponds at a DEM resolution of 10 m. Topographic conditioning was achieved with minimum impact as D2P reduced the number of modified cells from the original DEM by 51% compared to a conventional algorithm. Furthermore, hydrologic simulation using a D2P processed DEM resulted in a more robust characterization on surface water dynamics based on higher surface water storage as well as an attenuated and delayed peak streamflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Decentralized Carrier Phase Shifting for Optimal Harmonic Minimization in Asymmetric Parallel-Connected Inverters

This paper presents a carrier phase shifting technique for minimizing the aggregate harmonics in networks of asymmetric parallel-connected inverters for distributed power generation system applications. The proposed technique is: 1) implemented in a decentralized manner, relying only on local voltage and current measurements, and 2) optimal in the sense that it minimizes a cost function representing the carrier-frequency current harmonics. The analysis indicates that the proposed optimal carrier phase shifting technique can enable order-of-magnitude reductions in harmonic power, and also universal improvements compared to symmetric carrier interleaving for asymmetric inverter networks. Moreover, compared to existing methods that require either centralized communication or information exchange between inverters to coordinate carriers, the proposed technique is completely decentralized, which provides important practical benefits for implementation, including improved robustness and reduced cost. The technique is experimentally validated on a network of three single-phase 2-kW inverters and demonstrates a 36.5% reduction in the weighted total harmonic distortion factor of the aggregate inverter current, and the ability to converge to the optimal carrier phase spacing dynamically in less than one line frequency cycle (16.7 ms) in steady state and transient operating conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1977

Regimes for the ocean, outer space, and weather

The allocation of resources among users of the oceans, outer space and the weather is discussed. Attention is given to the international management of maritime navigation, the control of fisheries, offshore oil and gas exploitation, mineral exploitation in the deep seabed (especially the mining of manganese nodules), and the regulation of oceanographic studies. The management of outer space is considered, with special reference to remote sensing by satellites, television broadcasting, the technical requirements of maritime satellites, and problems associated with satellite frequency and orbit allocation. Rainmaking and typhoon modification, as well as the distribution of weather modification capabilities in the world, are also mentioned. The United Nations, international agencies and tribunals, and multi- or bilateral agreements are some of the implements suggested for use in the regulation of the oceans, outer space and the weather.

Brown, S.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Remote sensing of particulate concentrations in water

Determination of residual radiance is essential in remote sensing measurements of suspended solids in the absence of real-time ground-truth data. Some typical background corrections are presented for Lake Superior and the spectral distribution of the residual radiance is determined from three major categories of turbidity in the lake. The results tested with Landsat 2 digital tape data indicate that for large bodies of water general information on atmospheric scattering, water clarity, and optical properties of suspended solids enables one to estimate the concentrations of particulates to within + or - 0.5 mg/liter in the absence of real-time ground-truth data.

Sydor, M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The magnetopause as sensed by energetic particles, magnetic field, and plasma measurements on November 20, 1977

The position of the trapping boundary for ions not less than 24 keV in the vicinity of the magnetopause was determined using energetic particle three-dimensional distributions observed by ISEE 1 and 2. For a short period of time on November 20, 1977, definite periods were observed when the subsolar magnetopause current and magnetosheath plasma penetration layers were not overlapping the trapping region for energetic particles whose outer edge is the trapping boundary. The trapping boundary was found to be in rapid continual motion, representing a sharp, well-defined boundary, and the penetration of the magnetosheath plasma inside this boundary can be limited to a distance comparable to the plasma ion gyroradius of not greater than about 100 km, although plasma penetration was seen up to 200 km earthward of the trapping boundary.

Fritz, T. A.↗