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At least 1,603 records · Page 89

Shortwave Radiative Fluxes, Solar-Beam Transmissions, and Aerosol Properties: TARFOX and ACE-2 Find More Absorption from Flux Radiometry than from Other Measurements

The Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) and the Second Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2) made simultaneous measurements of shortwave radiative fluxes, solar-beam transmissions, and the aerosols affecting those fluxes and transmissions. Besides the measured fluxes and transmissions, other obtained properties include aerosol scattering and absorption measured in situ at the surface and aloft; aerosol single scattering albedo retrieved from skylight radiances; and aerosol complex refractive index derived by combining profiles of backscatter, extinction, and size distribution. These measurements of North Atlantic boundary layer aerosols impacted by anthropogenic pollution revealed the following characteristic results: (1) Better agreement among different types of remote measurements of aerosols (e.g., optical depth, extinction, and backscattering from sunphotometers, satellites, and lidars) than between remote and in situ measurements; 2) More extinction derived from transmission measurements than from in situ measurements; (3) Larger aerosol absorption inferred from flux radiometry than from other measurements. When the measured relationships between downwelling flux and optical depth (or beam transmission) are used to derive best-fit single scattering albedos for the polluted boundary layer aerosol, both TARFOX and ACE-2 yield midvisible values of 0.90 +/- 0.04. The other techniques give larger single scattering albedos (i.e. less absorption) for the polluted boundary layer, with a typical result of 0.95 +/- 0.04. Although the flux-based results have the virtue of describing the column aerosol unperturbed by sampling, they are subject to questions about representativeness and other uncertainties (e.g., unknown gas absorption). Current uncertainties in aerosol single scattering albedo are large in terms of climate effects. They also have an important influence on aerosol optical depths retrieved from satellite radiances. More tests are needed of the consistency among different methods and of the effects of changing humidity on aerosol.

Russell, Philip B.↗

Comparison of the Sensitivity of Surface Downward Longwave Radiation to Changes in Water Vapor at Two High Elevation Sites

Among the potential reasons for enhanced warming rates in many high elevation regions is the nonlinear relationship between surface downward longwave radiation (DLR) and specific humidity (q). In this study we use ground-based observations at two neighboring high elevation sites in Southwestern Colorado that have different local topography and are 1.3 kilometers apart horizontally and 348 meters vertically. We examine the spatial consistency of the sensitivities (partial derivatives) of DLR with respect to changes in q, and the sensitivities are obtained from the Jacobian matrix of a neural network analysis. Although the relationship between DLR and q is the same at both sites, the sensitivities are higher when q is smaller, which occurs more frequently at the higher elevation site. There is a distinct hourly distribution in the sensitivities at both sites especially for high sensitivity cases, although the range is greater at the lower elevation site. The hourly distribution of the sensitivities relates to that of q. Under clear skies during daytime, q is similar between the two sites, however under cloudy skies or at night, it is not. This means that the DLR-q sensitivities are similar at the two sites during daytime but not at night, and care must be exercised when using data from one site to infer the impact of water vapor feedbacks at another site, particularly at night. Our analysis suggests that care should be exercised when using the lapse rate adjustment to infill high frequency data in a complex topographical region, particularly when one of the stations is subject to cold air pooling as found here.

elevation↗

Forecasting Multi-Wave Epidemics Through Bayesian Inference

We present a simple, near-real-time Bayesian method to infer and forecast a multiwave outbreak, and demonstrate it on the COVID-19 pandemic. The approach uses timely epidemiological data that has been widely available for COVID-19. It provides short-term forecasts of the outbreak’s evolution, which can then be used for medical resource planning. The method postulates one- and multiwave infection models, which are convolved with the incubation-period distribution to yield competing disease models. The disease models’ parameters are estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and information-theoretic criteria are used to select between them for use in forecasting. The method is demonstrated on two- and three-wave COVID-19 outbreaks in California, New Mexico and Florida, as observed during Summer-Winter 2020. We find that the method is robust to noise, provides useful forecasts (along with uncertainty bounds) and that it reliably detected when the initial single-wave COVID-19 outbreaks transformed into successive surges as containment efforts in these states failed by the end of Spring 2020.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Pressure Transient Analyses and Poroelastic Modeling of Hydraulic Fracture Dilation for Multiple Injections at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site

Our team has conducted electromagnetic (EM) surveys for the past six years to monitor hydraulic-fracture behavior at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site (DFPS). The sub-horizontal orientation of a shallow hydraulic fracture at the DFPS provides uniform access to the fracture area for interrogation and data collection. Ahmadian et al. (2023) suggested a possible correlation between spatiotemporal changes in the flow rate, bottomhole pressure (BHP), and the observed surface recorded electric field at the DFPS. In this paper, we present the development of poroelastic forward models and pressure transient analyses (PTAs) to support the development of a multiphysics inverse model for these EM surveys. First, we conducted PTAs of the shut-in periods after six injections out of 10 to determine the fracture closure pressure (FCP) or the overburden pressure used in a poroelastic fracture reopening model. Second, we developed a finite-element poroelastic model throughout five injection cycles to include the effect of the cumulative injected volumes due to the previous injections on current fracture dilation in the presence of highly permeable unpropped and propped zones adjacent to the cohesive layer that models fracture reopening. Fracture reopening in this poroelastic model is based on a calibrated traction-separation response using the bottomhole pressure collected in two injection campaigns in 2020 and 2022. We used the outcomes of a previous simulation study of the primary hydraulic-fracturing stimulation to define the dimension of an unpropped fracture zone ahead of the propped fracture area. The PTAs led to FCPs consistent with those obtained using the injection data collected at the DFPS in 2020. Further, these analyses showed that at later injections, the fracture closure occurred at a later time with respect to the shut-in time, inferring the effect of cumulative injected volumes in previous injections. The simulation results show that considering the propped and unpropped fracture zones improves our poroelastic model in predicting the injection-well BHP. The numerical simulation results demonstrate a significant excess pore pressure near the fracture because of the preceding formation loadings by the previous injections. The obtained fracture dilation area and fluid pressure distribution provide a basis to improve the development of a multiphysics inverse model. Furthermore, in an iteratively coupled scheme, this pressure distribution can be introduced into EM models to render a holistic view of the causative mechanisms for the surface signal anomalies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Describing hadronization via histories and observables for Monte-Carlo event reweighting

We introduce a novel method for extracting a fragmentation model directly from experimental data without requiring an explicit parametric form, called Histories and Observables for Monte-Carlo Event Reweighting (HOMER), consisting of three steps: the training of a classifier between simulation and data, the inference of single fragmentation weights, and the calculation of the weight for the full hadronization chain. We illustrate the use of HOMER on a simplified hadronization problem, a q\bar{q} q q ‾ string fragmenting into pions, and extract a modified Lund string fragmentation function f(z) f ( z ) . We then demonstrate the use of HOMER on three types of experimental data: (i) binned distributions of high-level observables, (ii) unbinned event-by-event distributions of these observables, and (iii) full particle cloud information. After demonstrating that f(z) f ( z ) can be extracted from data (the inverse of hadronization), we also show that, at least in this limited setup, the fidelity of the extracted f(z) f ( z ) suffers only limited loss when moving from (i) to (ii) to (iii). Public code is available at https://gitlab.com/uchep/mlhad.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Deploying Adversarial Attacks in Super-Resolution Models

Reliable super-resolution methods are crucial for applications like remote sensing, grid resilience and disaster impact analysis, and standoff biometrics. These methods infuse additional high-frequency information into reconstructions, allowing for better contextualization and image intelligence. However, super-resolution models can also introduce hallucinations or other unseen vulnerabilities that could be exploited by an adversary. This is further compounded by the prominence of deep learning in these models, as models are often blindly applied on out-of-distribution images. In this work, we implement adversarial attacks in common open-source super-resolution models and examine their impact on reconstructions and downstream classification tasks. We find that an adversarially trained super-resolution model can produce high-quality reconstructions that degrade downstream classifications. Moreover, these attacks do not require access to low-resolution imagery or class labels at inference time. These results demonstrate the vulnerability of super-resolution methods to malicious actors and motivates the development of a detector for super-resolution adversarial attacks. Further exploration of adversarial attacks in this domain is required to ensure trustworthiness and robustness of super-resolution models for national security applications.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Complex Refractive Index of Ammonium Nitrate in the 2-20 micron Spectral Range

Using high resolution Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) absorbance/transmittance spectral data for ammonium sulfate (AMS), calcium carbonate (CAC) and ammonium nitrate (AMN), comparisons were made with previously published complex refractive indices data for AMS and CAC to infer experimental parameters to determine the imaginary refractive index for AMN in the infrared wavelength range from 2 to 20 microns. Kramers-Kronig mathematical relations were applied to calculate the real refractive index for the three compositions. Excellent agreement for AMS and CAC with the published values was found, validating the complex refractive indices obtained for AMN. Backscatter calculations using a lognormal size distribution for AMS, AMN, and CAC aerosols were performed to show differences in their backscattered spectra.

Jarzembski, Maurice A.↗

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

The objective of this preliminary study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type and extent. The mixed-phase region is where the noninductive charging (NIC) process is thought to generate most storm electrification during rebounding collisions between ice particles in the presence of supercooled water. As a result, prior radar-based studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate is well correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume, graupel mass, or ice mass flux. There is also some evidence that lightning type is associated with the convective state. Intracloud (IC) lightning tends to dominate during the updraft accumulation of precipitation ice mass while cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is more numerous during the downdraft-driven descent of radar echo associated with graupel and hail. More study is required to generalize these relationships, especially regarding lightning type, in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm kinematics, microphysics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for lightning NOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to well isolated convective cells on 3 April 2007 (single cell and multi-cell hailstorm, non-severe multicell) and 6 July 2007 (non-severe multi-cell) over Northern Alabama. The LNOM lightning characteristics are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby Doppler radar network, including the UA Huntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band, polarimetric). The LNOM estimated SAD and lightning NOx production profiles are placed in the context of radar derived profiles of vertical motion, precipitation types and amounts. Finally, these analyses are used to determine if storm integrated flash channel extent is as well correlated to volumetric updraft and precipitation ice characteristics in the mixed phase region as flash rate for these individual convective cells.

Carey, Lawrence↗

Impact Crater Geometries Provide Evidence for Ice-rich Layers at Low Latitudes on Mars

The impact cratering record documents the history of resurfacing events on Mars. The morphology and distribution of layered (rampart) ejecta blankets provide insights into the presence of volatiles in the upper crust [1-4]. The physical properties of the crust and history of water have been revealed through recent quantitative studies of the geometry of Martian craters [5-91. Here, we present the results from a study focused on impact craters in Utopia Planitia and the Elysium Mons province to infer the history and properties of resurfacing episodes.

Black, B. A.↗

Flow and Noise from Septa Nozzles

Flow and noise fields are explored for the concept of distributed propulsion. A model-scale experiment is performed with an 8:1 aspect ratio rectangular nozzle that is divided into six passages by five septa. The septa geometries are created by placing plastic inserts within the nozzle. It is found that the noise radiation from the septa nozzle can be significantly lower than that from the baseline rectangular nozzle. The reduction of noise is inferred to be due to the introduction of streamwise vortices in the flow. The streamwise vortices are produced by secondary flow within each passage. Thus, the geometry of the internal passages of the septa nozzle can have a large influence. The flow evolution is profoundly affected by slight changes in the geometry. These conclusions are reached by mostly experimental results of the flowfield aided by brief numerical simulations.

septa nozzle↗

Non-Gaussian Distributions of TOA SW Flux as Observed by MISR and CERES

The Top of Atmosphere (TOA) shortwave (SW) flux, converted from Terra Multi angle Imaging‐SpectroRadiometer (MISR) narrow band albedos, is compared with that measured from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES). We describe the probability density function (PDF) of the monthly TOA SW flux and how the statistical third moment, skewness, can impact the quantification of the flux. The PDF of the SW flux is not normally distributed but positively skewed. In both sets of observations, the near-global (80S-80N) median value of the SW flux is ≈3 W/m 2 less than the mean value, due to the positive skewness of the distribution. The near-global mean TOA SW flux converted from MISR is about 7 W/m 2 (≈7%) less than CERES measured flux during the last two decades. Surprisingly, hemispheric asymmetry exists with TOA SW observations from Terra platform. SH reflects 3.92 W/m 2 and 1.15 W/m 2 more mean SW flux than NH, from MISR and CERES Single Scanner Footprint products, respectively. We can infer that the offsetting by morning clouds in the SH is greater than the effect of hemispheric imbalance of SW flux caused by different land masses in two hemispheres. While the characteristics of the two SW fluxes broadly agree with each other, differences in the regional PDF from two different SW fluxes are substantially different over high cloud regions and high altitude regions. Our analysis shows that some parts of the different skewness from two measurements may be attributed to the different calibration of the radiance anisotropy over high cloud scenes.

satellite measurements↗

Boundary Layer Transition on Slender Cones in Conventional and Low Disturbance Mach 6 Wind Tunnels

An experimental investigation was conducted on a 5-degree half-angle cone and a 5-degree half-angle flared cone in a conventional Mach 6 wind tunnel to examine the effects of facility noise on boundary layer transition. The influence of tunnel noise was inferred by comparing transition onset locations determined from the present test to that previously obtained in a Mach 6 low disturbance quiet tunnel. Together, the two sets of experiments are believed to represent the first direct comparison of transition onset between a conventional and a low disturbance wind tunnel using a common test model and transition detection technique. In the present conventional hypersonic tunnel experiment, separate measurements of heat transfer and adiabatic wall temperatures were obtained on the conical models at small angles of attack over a range of Reynolds numbers, which resulted in laminar, transitional, and turbulent flow. Smooth model turbulent heating distributions are compared to that obtained with transition forced via discrete surface roughness. The model nosetip radius was varied to examine the effects of bluntness on transition onset. Despite wall to total temperature differences between the transient heating measurements and the adiabatic wall temperature measurement, the two methods for determining sharp cone transition onset generally yielded equivalent locations. In the 'noisy' mode of the hypersonic low disturbance tunnel, transition onset occurred earlier than that measured in the conventional hypersonic tunnel, suggesting higher levels of freestream acoustic radiation relative to the conventional tunnel. At comparable freestream conditions, the transition onset Reynolds number under low disturbance conditions was a factor of 1.3 greater than that measured on flared cone in the LaRC conventional hypersonic tunnel and a factor of 1.6 greater that the flared cone run in the low disturbance tunnel run 'noisy'. Navier-Stokes mean flow computations and linear stability analysis were conducted to assess the experimental results and have indicated N factors associated with sharp flared cone transition onset to be approximately a factor of 2 lower than that inferred from the corresponding low disturbance tunnel measurements.

Horvath, Thomas J.↗

Search for an axion-like particle with forward proton scattering in association with photon pairs at ATLAS

A search for forward proton scattering in association with light-by-light scattering mediated by an axion-like particle is presented, using the ATLAS Forward Proton spectrometer to detect scattered protons and the central ATLAS detector to detect pairs of outgoing photons. Proton-proton collision data recorded in 2017 at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV were analysed, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 14.6 fb –1 . A total of 441 candidate events were selected. A search was made for a narrow resonance in the diphoton mass distribution, corresponding to an axion-like particle (ALP) with mass in the range 150–1600 GeV. No excess is observed above a smooth background. Upper limits on the production cross section of a narrow resonance are set as a function of the mass, and are interpreted as upper limits on the ALP production coupling constant, assuming 100% decay branching ratio into a photon pair. The inferred upper limit on the coupling constant is in the range 0.04–0.09 TeV –1 at 95% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Stochastic acceleration of solar flare protons

The acceleration of solar flare protons is considered by cyclotron damping of intense Alfven wave turbulence in a magnetic trap. The energy diffusion coefficient is computed for a near-isotropic distribution of super-Alfvenic protons and a steady-state solution for the particle spectrum is found for both transit-time and diffusive losses out of the ends of the trap. The acceleration time to a characteristic energy approximately 20 Mev/nucl can be as short as 10 sec. On the basis of phenomenological arguments an omega/2 frequency dependence for the Alfven wave spectrum is inferred. The correlation time of the turbulence lies in the range .0005 less than tau/corr less than .05s.

Barbosa, D. D.↗

Simulation studies of electron acceleration by ion ring distributions in solar flares

A 2.5-dimensional fully relativistic EM, particle-in-cell code (PIC) is used to investigate a potential electron acceleration mechanism in solar flares. The free energy is provided by ions which have a ring velocity distribution about the magnetic-field direction. Ion rings may be produced by perpendicular shocks, which could in turn be generated by the super-Alfvenic motion of magnetic flux tubes emerging from the photosphere or by coronal mass ejections. Such ion distributions are known to be unstable to the generation of lower hybrid waves, which have phase velocities in excess of the electron thermal speed parallel to the field and can, therefore, resonantly accelerate electrons in that direction. The simulations show the transfer of perpendicular ion energy to energetic electrons via lower hybrid wave turbulence. With plausible ion ring velocities, the process can account for the observationally inferred fluxes and energies of non-thermal electrons during the impulsive phase of flares.

Mcclements, K. G.↗

Supplement: The Rate of Binary Black Hole Mergers Inferred from Advanced LIGO Observations Surrounding GW150914

This article provides supplemental information for a Letter reporting the rate of (BBH) coalescences inferred from 16 days of coincident Advanced LIGO observations surrounding the transient (GW) signal GW150914. In that work wereported various rate estimates whose 90% confidence intervals fell in the range 2600 Gpc(exp -3) yr(exp -1). Here we givedetails on our method and computations, including information about our search pipelines, a derivation of ourlikelihood function for the analysis, a description of the astrophysical search trigger distribution expected frommerging BBHs, details on our computational methods, a description of the effects and our model for calibrationuncertainty, and an analytic method for estimating our detector sensitivity, which is calibrated to our measurements.

gravitational waves – stars: black holes↗

A Framework for Neural Network Inference on FPGA-Centric SmartNICs

FPGA-based SmartNICs offer great potential to significantly improve the performance of high-performance computing and warehouse data processing by tightly coupling support for reconfigurable data-intensive computation with cross-node communication, thereby mitigating the von Neumann bottleneck. Existing work, however, has been generally been limited in that it assumes an accelerator model where kernels are offloaded to SmartNICs, but most control tasks are left to the CPUs. This leads to frequent waiting, inferior performance, and scaling challenges. In this work, we propose a new distributive data-centric computing framework, named FCsN, for reconfigurable SmartNIC-based systems. Through a lightweight task circulation execution model and its implementation architecture, FCsN allows the complete detaching of kernel execution, control logic, system scheduling, and network communication to the SmarNICs. This boosts performance by: (i) avoiding the control dependency with CPUs and (ii) supporting streaming kernel execution and network communication at line rate and in a very fine-grained manner. We demonstrate the efficiency and flexibility of FCsN using various types of neural network applications including graph neural networks; as these last are both irregular and data intensive they offer an especially robust demonstration. Evaluations using commonly-used neural network models and graph datasets show that a system with the support of FCsN can achieve, on average, 144 speedups over the MPI-based standard CPU baselines.

Guo, Anqi↗

Aerodynamic Data Fusion Toward the Digital Twin Paradigm

This paper considers the fusion of two aerodynamic data sets originating from differing types of physical or computer experiments. This paper specifically addresses the fusion of 1) noisy and in-complete fields from wind-tunnel measurements and 2) deterministic but biased fields from numerical simulations. These two data sources are fused in order to estimate the true field that best matches measured quantities that serve as the ground truth. For example, two sources of pressure fields about an aircraft are fused based on measured forces and moments from a wind-tunnel experiment. A fundamental challenge in this problem is that the true field is unknown and cannot be estimated with 100% certainty. A Bayesian framework is employed to infer the true fields conditioned on measured quantities of interest; essentially a statistical correction to the data is performed. The fused data may then be used to construct more accurate surrogate models suitable for early stages of aerospace design. An extension of the proper orthogonal decomposition with constraints is also introduced to solve the same problem. In this work, both methods are demonstrated on fusing the pressure distributions for flow past the RAE2822 airfoil and the Common Research Model wing at transonic conditions. Comparison of both methods reveals that the Bayesian method is more robust when data are scarce and capable of also accounting for uncertainties in the data. Furthermore, given adequate data, the proper-orthogonal-decomposition-based and Bayesian approaches lead to surprisingly similar results.

42 ENGINEERING↗