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Results for “dependability modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,603 records · Page 89

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NASA NTRS2000

Role of muscle pulleys in producing eye position-dependence in the angular vestibuloocular reflex: a model-based study

It is well established that the head and eye velocity axes do not always align during compensatory vestibular slow phases. It has been shown that the eye velocity axis systematically tilts away from the head velocity axis in a manner that is dependent on eye-in-head position. The mechanisms responsible for producing these axis tilts are unclear. In this model-based study, we aimed to determine whether muscle pulleys could be involved in bringing about these phenomena. The model presented incorporates semicircular canals, central vestibular pathways, and an ocular motor plant with pulleys. The pulleys were modeled so that they brought about a rotation of the torque axes of the extraocular muscles that was a fraction of the angle of eye deviation from primary position. The degree to which the pulleys rotated the torque axes was altered by means of a pulley coefficient. Model input was head velocity and initial eye position data from passive and active yaw head impulses with fixation at 0 degrees, 20 degrees up and 20 degrees down, obtained from a previous experiment. The optimal pulley coefficient required to fit the data was determined by calculating the mean square error between data and model predictions of torsional eye velocity. For active head impulses, the optimal pulley coefficient varied considerably between subjects. The median optimal pulley coefficient was found to be 0.5, the pulley coefficient required for producing saccades that perfectly obey Listing's law when using a two-dimensional saccadic pulse signal. The model predicted the direction of the axis tilts observed in response to passive head impulses from 50 ms after onset. During passive head impulses, the median optimal pulley coefficient was found to be 0.21, when roll gain was fixed at 0.7. The model did not accurately predict the alignment of the eye and head velocity axes that was observed early in the response to passive head impulses. We found that this alignment could be well predicted if the roll gain of the angular vestibuloocular reflex was modified during the initial period of the response, while pulley coefficient was maintained at 0.5. Hence a roll gain modification allows stabilization of the retinal image without requiring a change in the pulley effect. Our results therefore indicate that the eye position-dependent velocity axis tilts could arise due to the effects of the pulleys and that a roll gain modification in the central vestibular structures may be responsible for countering the pulley effect.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

DOE OSTI2023

Explainability and extrapolation of machine learning models for predicting the glass transition temperature of polymers

Abstract Machine learning (ML) offers promising tools to develop surrogate models for polymers' structure–property relations. Surrogate models can be built upon existing polymer data and are useful for rapidly predicting the properties of unknown polymers. The accuracy of such ML models appears to depend on the feature space representation of polymers, the range of training data, and learning algorithms. Here, we establish connections between these factors for predicting the glass transition temperature (T g ) of polymers. Our analysis suggests linear models with fewer fitting parameters are as accurate as nonlinear models with many hidden and unexplainable parameters. Also, the performance of a monomer topology‐based ML model is found to be qualitatively identical to that of a physicochemical descriptor‐based ML model. We find that the ML models's performance in the extrapolative region is enhanced as the property range of the training data increases. Moreover, we establish newT g – polymer chemistry correlations via ML. Our work illustrates how ML can advance the fundamental understanding of polymer structure–property correlations and its efficacy for extrapolation problems.

Polymer Science↗

NASA NTRS1979

The effects of context on multidimensional spatial cognitive models

Spatial cognitive models obtained by multidimensional scaling represent cognitive structure by defining alternatives as points in a coordinate space based on relevant dimensions such that interstimulus dissimilarities perceived by the individual correspond to distances between the respective alternatives. The dependence of spatial models on the context of the judgments required of the individual was investigated. Context, which is defined as a perceptual interpretation and cognitive understanding of a judgment situation, was analyzed and classified with respect to five characteristics: physical environment, social environment, task definition, individual perspective, and temporal setting. Four experiments designed to produce changes in the characteristics of context and to test the effects of these changes upon individual cognitive spaces are described with focus on experiment design, objectives, statistical analysis, results, and conclusions. The hypothesis is advanced that an individual can be characterized as having a master cognitive space for a set of alternatives. When the context changes, the individual appears to change the dimension weights to give a new spatial configuration. Factor analysis was used in the interpretation and labeling of cognitive space dimensions.

Dupnick, E. G.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A middle and upper tropospheric cloud model

The interplay of the various physical processes involved in the formation, maintenance, and decay of middle and upper tropospheric stratiform clouds is discussed. Ice phase fair weather cloud forms are considered. Simulations of cirriform clouds which attempt to incorporate the physical processes in an interactive manner were performed. A two dimensional time dependent Eulerian numerical model, which incorporates all of the important physical processes in a simplified way, is employed to investigate the role of these processes in the evolution of a cloud in an isolated atmospheric layer. Physical parameters considered are the eddy viscosity and the thermal, water vapor, and ice water eddy diffusivities.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2020

The effect of metastable atomic levels in neutral tungsten for erosion and impurity transport applications

Long-lived metastable states in neutral tungsten are shown to potentially impact measurements of tungsten erosion from plasma facing components. Time-dependent collisional radiative modeling of neutral tungsten is used to analyze the role of these states in tungsten emission and ionization. The large number of non-quasistatic atomic states in neutral tungsten can take on the order of milliseconds to reach equilibrium, depending on plasma conditions, causing erosion measurements to be affected by the metastable populations. Previous measurements using the 400.88 nm tungsten emission line could be affected by these non-quasistatic metastable effects. Therefore, a scheme for measuring the relative metastable fractions is proposed through simultaneous observation of multiple ultraviolet spectral lines of neutral W. The accuracy of gross erosion measurements could potentially be increased by inclusion of these previously unconsidered metastable effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1982

Accretion instability models for Dwarf Novae and X-ray transients

Steady state and time dependent calculations of a model for accretion instability are presented, in which matter accumulates in a cold torus and then undergoes a thermal instability causing the matter to heat and flow down onto the central star. The model is compared to the observations of dwarf novae and certain examples of both hard and soft X-ray transients.

Cannizzo, J. K.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Accretion instability models for dwarf novae and X-ray transients

Cannizzo, J. K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Explainable Machine Learning for Functional Data

Black-box machine learning models are recognized as useful tools for prediction applications, but the algorithmic complexity of some models causes interpretation challenges. Explainability methods have been proposed to provide insight into these models, but there is little research focused on supervised modeling with functional data inputs. We argue that, especially in applications of high consequence, it is important to explicitly model the functional dependence in a black-box analysis to not obscure or misrepresent patterns in explanations. As such, we propose the V ariable importance E xplainable E lastic S hape A nalysis (VEESA) pipeline for training supervised machine learning models with functional inputs. The pipeline is an analysis process that includes the data preprocessing, modeling, and post-hoc explanations. The preprocessing is done using elastic functional principal components analysis, which accounts for vertical and horizontal variability in functional data and, ultimately, allows for explanations in the original data space that identify the important functional variability without bias due to correlated variables. Here, we demonstrate the pipeline on two high-consequence applications: explosives classification for national security and inkjet printer identification in forensic science. The applications exhibit the VEESA pipeline’s ability to provide an understanding of the characteristics of the functional data useful for prediction. Code for implementing the pipeline is available in the veesa R package (and supplemental python code).

Elastic Shape Analysis↗

NASA NTRS2002

Determinants affecting physical activity levels in animal models

Weight control is dependent on energy balance. Reduced energy expenditure (EE) associated with decreased physical activity is suggested to be a major underlying cause in the increasing prevalence of weight gain and obesity. Therefore, a better understanding of the biological determinants involved in the regulation of physical activity is essential. To facilitate interpretation in humans, it is helpful to consider the evidence from animal studies. This review focuses on animal studies examining the biological determinants influencing activity and potential implications to human. It appears that physical activity is influenced by a number of parameters. However, regardless of the parameter involved, body weight appears to play an underlying role in the regulation of activity. Furthermore, the regulation of activity associated with body weight appears to occur only after the animal achieves a critical weight. This suggests that activity levels are a consequence rather than a contributor to weight control. However, the existence of an inverse weight-activity relationship remains inconclusive. Confounding the results are the multifactorial nature of physical activity and the lack of appropriate measuring devices. Furthermore, many determinants of body weight are closely interlocked, making it difficult to determine whether a single, combination, or interaction of factors is important for the regulation of activity. For example, diet-induced obesity, aging, lesions to the ventral medial hypothalamus, and genetics all produce hypoactivity. Providing a better understanding of the biological determinants involved in the regulation of activity has important implications for the development of strategies for the prevention of weight gain leading to obesity and subsequent morbidity and mortality in the human population.

Review↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimation of hydraulic conductivity in a watershed using sparse multi-source data via Gaussian process regression and Bayesian experimental design

Enhanced water management systems depend on accurate estimation of subsurface hydraulic properties. However, geologic formations can vary significantly, so information from a single source (e.g., widely spaced boreholes) is insufficient in characterizing subsurface aquifer properties. Therefore, multiple sources of information are needed to complement the hydrogeology understanding of a region. Here, this study presents a numerical framework in which information from different measurement sources is combined to characterize the 3D random field in a multi-fidelity prediction model. Coupled with the model, a Bayesian experimental design was used to determine the best future sampling locations. The Upper Sangamon watershed in east-central Illinois was selected as the case study site, where the multi-fidelity Gaussian process model was used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity in the region of interest. Multi-source observation data were obtained from electrical resistivity and borehole pumping tests. The accuracy of the model prediction is dependent on the locations and the distribution of both high- and low-fidelity data. Furthermore, the multi-fidelity model was compared with the single-fidelity model. The uncertainties and confidence in the measurements and parameter estimates were quantified and used to design future cycles of data collection to further improve the confidence intervals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

The structure and propagation of intraseasonal oscillations appearing in a GFDL general circulation model

The 12-year output of a 15-wavenumber GCM experiment is analyzed, with the objective of describing the spatial and temporal behavior of dominant intraseasonal variations. The parameters analyzed include five-day averages of wind, geopotential height, sea level pressure, and precipitation. It is demonstrated that the spatial structure, propagation characteristics, and seasonal dependence of the model features are consistent with observations reported in the literature. The model findings are interpreted in terms of the current theoretical understanding of tropical and extratropical motions.

Lau, Ngar-Cheung↗

NASA NTRS2005

Expected Constraints on Rhea's Interior from Cassini

We model the interior of Rhea based on observational constraints and the results from geodynamical models available in the literature. Ten main types of models are defined, depending on the presence or absence of a high-pressure ice layer (ice II), and the extent of separation of the rock component from the volatiles. We present degree-two gravity components computed for each of these models in order to assess which properties of the interior are likely to be inferred from Cassini radio science measurements scheduled on November 26, 2005.

Castillo, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Time Serial Analysis of the Induced LEO Environment within the ISS 6A

Anisotropies in the low Earth orbit (LEO) radiation environment were found to influence the thermoluminescence detectors (TLD) dose within the (International Space Station) ISS 7A Service Module. Subsequently, anisotropic environmental models with improved dynamic time extrapolation have been developed including westward and northern drifts using AP8 Min & Max as estimates of the historic spatial distribution of trapped protons in the 1965 and 1970 era, respectively. In addition, a directional dependent geomagnetic cutoff model was derived for geomagnetic field configurations from the 1945 to 2020 time frame. A dynamic neutron albedo model based on our atmospheric radiation studies has likewise been required to explain LEO neutron measurements. The simultaneous measurements of dose and dose rate using four Liulin instruments at various locations in the US LAB and Node 1 has experimentally demonstrated anisotropic effects in ISS 6A and are used herein to evaluate the adequacy of these revised environmental models.

Wilson, John W.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Internal Structure of Rhea

We model the interior of Rhea on the basis of observational constraints and the results from geodynamical models available in the literature. Ten main types of models are defined, depending on the presence or absence of a high-pressure ice layer (ice II), and the extent of separation of the rock component from the volatiles. The degree-two gravity coefficients are computed for each of these models in order to assess which properties of the interior are likely to be inferred from Cassini radio science measurements scheduled on 26 November 2005. C22 greater than 2.5 x 10(exp -4) indicates that the satellite is undifferentiated, except for a slight increase in density with depth resulting from material self-compression. C22 between 1.67 x 10(exp -4)(lower bound) and 1.90 x 10(exp -4) indicates the presence of a rocky core, whose radius can be determined from the satellite's mass and ices densities, for a given temperature profile. For other values, most of the ten models cannot be distinguished from each other. However, assumptions on the density of the rock phase, presence or absence of ice II, and the degree of differentiation could allow a unique model to be determined in many cases. While the calculation presented in this work assumes that Rhea is in hydrostatic equilibrium, it is likely that Rhea' gravity field is partly affected by nonhydrostatic anomalies.

gravity science↗

DOE OSTI2026

SPT-3G D1: A Measurement of Secondary Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropy Power

We report new measurements of millimeter-wave temperature power spectra in the angular multipole range $1700 \le \ell \le 11,000$ (wavelengths $13^\prime \gtrsim λ\gtrsim 2^\prime$). We use two years of data in three observing bands centered near 95, 150, and 220 GHz from the SPT-3G receiver on the South Pole Telescope that cover a 1646 deg$^2$ region of the Southern sky. Using the measured power spectra, we present constraints on the thermal and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effects, radio galaxies, and cosmic infrared background (CIB). We find that inferred SZ powers are dependent on the detailed modeling of the thermal SZ-CIB correlation, and to a lesser extent on the assumed angular dependence of the SZ spectra. We report constraints for simulation-based model templates as well as fits where the angular dependencies of the SZ and CIB power spectra are allowed to vary. In the latter case at $\ell=3000$, we find thermal SZ power at 143 GHz of $D_{3000}^{\rm tSZ} = 4.91\pm0.37\, μ{\rm K}^2$ and kinematic SZ power of $D_{3000}^{\rm kSZ} =1.75\pm0.86\, μ{\rm K}^2$. We use the measured kinematic SZ power to estimate the duration of reionization, noting that the reionization inferences are sensitive to the model choices and assumed level of homogeneous kinematic SZ power from the late-time universe. We find a 95% limit on the duration from an ionization fraction of 25% to 75% of $Δ^{50} z_{\rm re} <\,3.8$ based on a semi-analytic model, or a limit on the duration from an ionization fraction of 5% to 95% of $Δ^{90} z_{\rm re} <\,6.1$ based on the AMBER simulations.

Chaubal, P. [Melbourne U.]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Formulation and solution approach for calibrating activity-based travel demand model-system via microsimulation

This study addresses the problem of calibrating utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based travel demand model-systems. After estimation, it is common practice to use aggregate measurements to calibrate the estimated model-system’s parameters prior to their application in transportation planning, policy making, and operations. However, calibration of activity-based model-systems has received much less attention. Existing calibration approaches are myopic heuristics in the sense that they do not consider the fundamental inter-dependencies among choice-models and do not have a systematic way to adjust model parameters. Also, other purely simulation-based approaches do not perform well in large-scale applications. In this study, we focus on utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based model-systems and calibrating aggregate statistics such as activity shares, mode shares, time-dependent & mode-specific OD flows, and time-dependent & mode-specific sensor counts. We formulate the calibration problem as a simulation-based optimization problem and propose a stochastic gradient-based solution procedure to solve it. The solution procedure relies on microsimulation to calculate expectations of the aggregate statistics of interest to the calibration problem. Additionally, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the gradient of the objective function —that are evaluated through microsimulation on mini-batches of the population. The proposed solution procedure is sensitive to the fundamental structure of the activity-based model-system and is non-myopic in considering the dependencies across its model components. The formulated optimization problem is non-convex, highly nonlinear, and potentially has multiple-minima. Lastly, we show —through a real-world application— that the proposed solution procedure outperforms other state-of-the-art purely simulation-based optimization approaches in terms of computational efficiency, stability, and convergence. We also compare various gradient-based solution algorithms to determine the best algorithm to update the parameters. This work has the potential to facilitate wider and easier application of activity-based model-systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2015

Next-Generation Angular Distribution Models for Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Flux Calculation from the CERES Instruments: Methodology

The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes are critical components to advancing our understanding of the Earth's radiative energy balance, radiative effects of clouds and aerosols, and climate feedback. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments provide broadband shortwave and longwave radiance measurements. These radiances are converted to fluxes by using scene-type-dependent angular distribution models (ADMs). This paper describes the next-generation ADMs that are developed for Terra and Aqua using all available CERES rotating azimuth plane radiance measurements. Coincident cloud and aerosol retrievals, and radiance measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and meteorological parameters from Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation version 5.4.1 are used to define scene type. CERES radiance measurements are stratified by scene type and by other parameters that are important for determining the anisotropy of the given scene type. Anisotropic factors are then defined either for discrete intervals of relevant parameters or as a continuous functions of combined parameters, depending on the scene type. Significant differences between the ADMs described in this paper and the existing ADMs are over clear-sky scene types and polar scene types. Over clear ocean, we developed a set of shortwave (SW) ADMs that explicitly account for aerosols. Over clear land, the SW ADMs are developed for every 1 latitude1 longitude region for every calendar month using a kernel-based bidirectional reflectance model. Over clear Antarctic scenes, SW ADMs are developed by accounting the effects of sastrugi on anisotropy. Over sea ice, a sea-ice brightness index is used to classify the scene type. Under cloudy conditions over all surface types, the longwave (LW) and window (WN) ADMs are developed by combining surface and cloud-top temperature, surface and cloud emissivity, cloud fraction, and precipitable water. Compared to the existing ADMs, the new ADMs change the monthly mean instantaneous fluxes by up to 5Wm(exp -2) on a regional scale of 1 deg. latitude x 1 deg. longitude, but the flux changes are less than 0.5Wm(exp -2) on a global scale.

Su, W.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analytical models of the strength and ductility of CNT reinforced metal matrix nano composites under elevated temperatures

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) can greatly enhance the strength of metal matrix composites while resulting in ductility loss. This strength-ductility tradeoff dilemma always confines the development of material design and real-life applications. Here in this work, a temperature dependent strengthening analytical model is proposed for CNT reinforced metal matrix composites which considers three common strengthening mechanisms: Orowan looping effect, thermal expansion mismatch effect, and load bearing effect. The proposed model can predict composite material strength with different volume fractions of CNTs and under different temperatures. Combining the strengthening model with the stress based modified Mohr-Coulomb (sMMC) ductile fracture model, a ductility analytical model is then derived. This ductility analytical model includes the influences of temperature, multi-axial stress loading conditions, as well as the aforementioned three strengthening mechanisms. A good agreement has been achieved between literature published experimental data and analytical predictions for both composite material strength and ductility loss. The proposed two analytical models can provide a straightforward way to study the strength-ductility relationship for CNT reinforced metal matrix composites over a wide range of temperatures and different stress states, and then provide guidance on new material design and processing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗