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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,603 records · Page 89
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Ultra-compact structure in radio quasars as a cosmological probe: a revised study of the interaction between cosmic dark sectors

A new compilation of 012 angular-size/redshift data for compact radio quasars from very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) surveys motivates us to revisit the interaction between dark energy and dark matter with these probes reaching high redshifts z ∼ 3.0. In this paper, we investigate observational constraints on different phenomenological interacting dark energy (IDE) models with the intermediate-luminosity radio quasars acting as individual standard rulers, combined with the newest BAO and CMB observation from Planck results acting as statistical rulers. The results obtained from the MCMC method and other statistical methods including figure of Merit and Information Criteria show that: (1) Compared with the current standard candle data and standard clock data, the intermediate-luminosity radio quasar standard rulers , probing much higher redshifts, could provide comparable constraints on different IDE scenarios. (2) The strong degeneracies between the interaction term and Hubble constant may contribute to alleviate the tension of H {sub 0} between the recent Planck and HST measurements. (3) Concerning the ranking of competing dark energy models, IDE with more free parameters are substantially penalized by the BIC criterion, which agrees very well with the previous results derived from other cosmological probes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DESI 2024: reconstructing dark energy using crossing statistics with DESI DR1 BAO data

Here, we implement Crossing Statistics to reconstruct in a model-agnostic manner the expansion history of the universe and properties of dark energy, using DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) BAO data in combination with one of three different supernova compilations (PantheonPlus, Union3, and DES-SN5YR) and Planck CMB observations. Our results hint towards an evolving and emergent dark energy behaviour, with negligible presence of dark energy at z ≳ 1, at varying significance depending on data sets combined. In all these reconstructions, the cosmological constant lies outside the 95% confidence intervals for some redshift ranges. This dark energy behaviour, reconstructed using Crossing Statistics, is in agreement with results from the conventional w 0 –w a dark energy equation of state parametrization reported in the DESI Key cosmology paper. Our results add an extensive class of model-agnostic reconstructions with acceptable fits to the data, including models where cosmic acceleration slows down at low redshifts. We also report constraints on H 0 r d from our model-agnostic analysis, independent of the pre-recombination physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II Supernova Survey

This paper describes the data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II (SDSS-II) Supernova Survey conducted between 2005 and 2007. Light curves, spectra, classifications, and ancillary data are presented for 10,258 variable and transient sources discovered through repeat ugriz imaging of SDSS Stripe 82, a 300 deg2 area along the celestial equator. This data release is comprised of all transient sources brighter than r~22.5 mag with no history of variability prior to 2004. Dedicated spectroscopic observations were performed on a subset of 889 transients, as well as spectra for thousands of transient host galaxies using the SDSS-III BOSS spectrographs. Photometric classifications are provided for the candidates with good multi-color light curves that were not observed spectroscopically. From these observations, 4607 transients are either spectroscopically confirmed, or likely to be, supernovae, making this the largest sample of supernova candidates ever compiled. We present a new method for SN host-galaxy identification and derive host-galaxy properties including stellar masses, star-formation rates, and the average stellar population ages from our SDSS multi-band photometry. We derive SALT2 distance moduli for a total of 1443 SN Ia with spectroscopic redshifts as well as photometric redshifts for a further 677 purely-photometric SN Ia candidates. Using the spectroscopically confirmed subset of the three-year SDSS-II SN Ia sample and assuming a flat Lambda-CDM cosmology, we determine Omega_M = 0.315 +/- 0.093 (statistical error only) and detect a non-zero cosmological constant at 5.7 sigmas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Median Statistics Analysis of Deuterium Abundance Measurements and Spatial Curvature Constraints

Zavarygin et al. compiled a list of 15 deuterium abundance measurements; two were discarded because the remaining 13 measurements are then consistent with Gaussianity. Here, those authors found that the weighted-mean baryon density (Ω b h 2) determined from the 13 measurements is mildly discrepant (1.6σ) with that determined from the Planck 2015 cosmic microwave background anisotropy data in a flat cosmogony. We find that a median statistic central estimate of Ω b h 2 from all 15 deuterium abundance measurements is a more accurate estimate; is very consistent with Ω b h 2 estimated from Planck 2015 data in a flat cosmogony, but is about 2σ lower than that found in a closed cosmogonical model from the Planck 2015 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Color Transformations of Photometric Measurements of Galaxies in Optical and Near-infrared Wide-field Imaging Surveys*

Abstract Over the past 2 decades, wide-field photometric surveys in optical and infrared domains reached a nearly all-sky coverage thanks to numerous observational facilities operating in both hemispheres. However, subtle differences among exact realizations of Johnson and SDSS photometric systems require one to convert photometric measurements into the same system prior to analysis of composite data sets originating from multiple surveys. It turns out that the published photometric transformations lead to substantial biases when applied to integrated photometry of galaxies from the corresponding catalogs. Here we present photometric transformations based on piece-wise linear approximations of integrated photometry of galaxies in the optical surveys SDSS, DECaLS, BASS, MzLS, DES, DELVE, KiDS, VST ATLAS, and the near-infrared surveys UKIDSS, UHS, VHS, and VIKING. We validate our transformations by constructing k -corrected color–magnitude diagrams of non-active galaxies and measuring the position and tightness of the “red sequence.” We also provide transformations for aperture magnitudes and show how they are affected by the image quality difference among the surveys. We present the implementation of the derived transformations in python and idl and also a web-based color transformation calculator for galaxies. By comparing DECaLS and DES, we identified systematic issues in DECaLS photometry for extended galaxies, which we attribute to the photometric software package used by DECaLS. As an application of our method, we compiled two multi-wavelength photometric catalogs for over 200,000 low- and intermediate-redshift galaxies originating from CfA FAST and Hectospec spectral archives.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessment of the baseline scenario at q 95 ~ 3 for ITER

The International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on integrated operational scenarios has compiled a database of stationary H-mode discharges at q 95 ~ 3 from AUG, C-Mod, DIII-D, JET and JT-60U, for both carbon wall and high-Z metal wall experiments with ~3300 entries. The analyses focus on discharges that are stationary for ≥5 thermal energy confinement times to evaluate the baseline scenario proposed for ITER at 15 MA for achieving its goals of Q = 10, fusion power of 500 MW at normalized pressure, β N = 1.8 and normalized confinement as predicted by the standard H-mode scaling, H 98y2 = 1. With the data restricted to stationary H-modes at q 95 ~ 3, the database shows significant variation of thermal energy confinement compared to the standard H-mode scaling (IPB98(y,2)) in dimensionless form. The data show similar scaling with normalized gyro-radius, but more favorable scaling towards lower collision frequency and more favorable scaling with plasma beta. Using all the engineering variables employed in IPB98(y,2), results in an overfit due to correlations among the data. Furthermore, there are significant residual trends in the confinement for plasma current, device size, loss power, and in particular for the plasma density. Significant differences between results obtained for devices with a carbon wall and high-Z metal wall are observed in the data, with data from carbon wall devices providing a larger operating space, encompassing ITER parameters or even exceeding them. H-modes in high-Z metal wall devices have, so-far, not accessed conditions at low collision frequencies, have lower normalized confinement (H 98y2 ~ 0.8–0.9) at low input power or beta, achieving H 98y2 ~ 1.0 only at input powers two times the L- to H-mode transition scaling predictions and at β N ~ 2.0. Hence, only the best H-modes with high-Z metal walls reach ITER baseline performance requirements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cause and impact of low-frequency chirping modes in DIII-D hybrid discharges

Significant variations in MHD activity and fast-ion transport are observed in the DIIID high-beta, steady-state hybrid discharges with a mixture of Electron Cyclotron (EC) waves and Neutral Beam Injection (NBI). When Electron Cyclotron Heating (ECH) or Current Drive (ECCD) is applied, Alfven Eigenmodes (AEs) are usually suppressed and replaced by low-frequency bursting modes. The analysis of a recently compiled database of hybrid discharges suggests that the change of the fast-ion pressure especially the perpendicular pressure is the main factor responsible for the instability transition. The lower ratio of fast-ion injection speed v inj to Alfven speed v alfven and slight drop of safety factor q min during ECCD may also facilitate the transition. The database shows that AEs mainly occur when the fast-ion fraction P f /P total is less than 0.53 and v inj /v alfven is greater than 0.50, while low-frequency bursting modes appear in the opposite regime. In this research, P f and P total are the central fast-ion pressure from classical prediction and total plasma pressure, respectively. The reason why the instability transition correlates with P f /P total and v inj /v alfven is that they can significantly modify the drive of low-frequency bursting modes and AEs. The explanation is supported by the observation that low-frequency bursting modes are rarely seen in the hybrids with NBI only, with EC waves and counter-NBI, or with high plasma density. A careful check of the low-frequency bursting modes suggests that they are mainly chirping (neoclassical) tearing modes [referred to as chirping (N)TM], i.e. the mode frequency firstly jumps up from the steady (N)TM frequency, then chirps down, and finally returns to the steady (N)TM frequency. Sometimes, the (N)TMs are fully stabilized and replaced with pure fishbones. Lastly, the resonance condition calculation and ’Kick’ model simulations suggest that (N)TMs and fishbones can interact through modification of the fast ion distribution in phase space, which influences the drive.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Progress in pedestal and edge physics: Chapter 3 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This paper describes the extensive progress that has been made in the understanding of tokamak pedestal physics since the 2007 publication of ‘Progress in the ITER Physics Basis’ (Ikeda 2007 Nucl. Fusion 47 E01–S500). It serves as Chapter 3 of the 2025 Nuclear Fusion Special Issue titled ‘On the Path to Tokamak Burning Plasma Operation’ (Campbell et al 2025 Nucl. Fusion ). This review was compiled by the pedestal and edge physics (PEP) community affiliated with the International Tokamak Physics Activity organization. It attempts to collect in one place citations to the majority of published literature on the pedestal physics topics that will be most important for the operation of a future power producing burning plasma tokamak. These include citations to publications describing the physics of the pedestal plasmas in many operating tokamaks worldwide and the pedestal physics projections for several near-term future devices including ITER. Descriptions of experimental results, interpretive modeling and predictive extrapolations are integrated together and comprehensive references are provided. This review is organized around four primary technical sections, viz.: pedestal structure, edge localized mode (ELM) characteristics, ELM control and regimes without large ELMs. Key results from many of the references are described briefly and set into the tokamak burning plasma power plant context. In addition, different perspectives on pedestal physics topics that are currently under debate within the community are also described, to provide guidance on needs for future research. Finally, attempts are made to describe conclusions from all of this progress consistent with discussions by the pedestal physics community at this time. The goal of this review is to provide a useful reference document for pedestal physics researchers going forward toward operation of a burning tokamak fusion plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-device analysis of energy loss duration and pellet penetration with implications for shattered pellet injection in ITER

A robust disruption mitigation system (DMS) requires accurate characterization of key disruption timescales, one of the most notable being the thermal quench (TQ). Recent modeling of shattered pellet injection (SPI) into ITER plasmas, using JOREK and INDEX, suggests long TQ durations (6–10 ms) and slow cold front propagation due to the large plasma size. If validated, these predictions would have an impact on the desired pellet parameters and mitigation strategies for the ITER DMS. To resolve these questions, a database of SPI experiments from several small-to-large sized devices (J-TEXT, KSTAR, AUG, DIII-D, and JET) has been compiled under the auspices of the International Tokamak Physics Activity MHD, disruptions, and control topical group. Analysis of the energy loss duration (proxy for the TQ duration) with machine size is presented for both mixed neon/deuterium (Ne/D) SPI and pure deuterium (D) SPI. Several metrics for the energy loss onset (e.g. soft x-ray signal drop, I p dip, and radiation flash) were considered as the conventional metric, electron cyclotron emission, is often cut-off during SPI. Several scalings with different onset metrics showed an increase in energy loss duration with machine size. The energy loss duration was additionally shown to be a function of the ratio between the number of SPI neon atoms injected and the stored energy. Analysis of the pellet shard position relative to the cold front found that in larger devices, pellets are typically found inboard of the q = 2 surface at the energy loss onset. Lastly, the delay between the pellet shards hitting the q = 2 surface and the energy loss onset was additionally found to increase with machine size. This suggests that the pellet shards in large devices will penetrate faster and further than the cooling front.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modernising ATLAS Software Build Infrastructure

In the last year ATLAS has radically updated its software development infrastructure hugely reducing the complexity of building releases and greatly improving build speed, flexibility and code testing. The first step in this transition was the adoption of CMake as the software build system over the older CMT. This required the development of an automated translation from the old system to the new, followed by extensive testing and improvements. This resulted in a far more standard build process that was married to the method of building ATLAS software as a series of 12 separate projects from Subversion. We then proceeded with a migration of the code base from Subversion to Git. As the Subversion repository had been structured to manage each package more or less independently there was no simple mapping that could be used to manage the migration into Git. Instead a specialist set of scripts that captured the software changes across official software releases was developed. With some clean up of the repository and the policy of only migrating packages in production releases, we managed to reduce the repository size from 62 GiB to 220 MiB. After moving to Git we took the opportunity to introduce continuous integration so that now each code change from developers is built and tested before being approved. With both CMake and Git in place we also dramatically simplified the build management of ATLAS software. Many heavyweight homegrown tools were dropped and the build procedure was reduced to a single bootstrap of some external packages, followed by a full build of the rest of the stack. This has reduced the time for a build by a factor of 2. It is now easy to build ATLAS software, freeing developers to test compile intrusive changes or new platform ports with ease. We have also developed a system to build lightweight ATLAS releases, for simulation, analysis or physics derivations which can be built from the same branch.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Speeding up software with VecCore

Portable and efficient vectorization is a significant challenge in large software projects such as GeantV, ROOT, and experiments’ frameworks. Nevertheless, fully exploiting SIMD parallelism will be a required step in order to bridge the widening gap between the needs and availability of computing resouces for data analysis and processing in particle physics. Although there are SIMD libraries that wrap compiler intrinsics into a convenient interface, they do not always support all available architectures, or they only perform well in some of them. The VecCore library was created to address some of these performance and portability issues by providing a unified abstraction layer on top of existing libraries, such as Vc or UME::SIMD. In this article, we discuss VecCore’s programming model for SIMD code and some use cases in HEP software packages such as VecGeom and GeantV.

Amadio, G.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supporting multiple hardware architectures at CMS: the integration and validation of POWER9

Computing resources in the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) have been based entirely on the x86 architecture for more than two decades. In the near future, however, heterogeneous non-x86 resources, such as ARM, POWER and Risc-V, will become a substantial fraction of the resources that will be provided to the LHC experiments, due to their presence in existing and planned world-class HPC installations. The CMS experiment, one of the four large detectors at the LHC, has started to prepare for this situation, with the CMS software stack (CMSSW) already compiled for multiple architectures. In order to allow for a production use, the tools for workload management and job distribution need to be extended to be able to exploit heterogeneous architectures. Profiting from the opportunity to exploit the first sizable IBM Power9 allocation available on Marconi100 HPC system at CINECA, CMS developed all the needed modifications to the CMS workload management system. After a successful proof of concept, a full physics validation has been performed in order to bring the system in production. The experiences are of very high value, when it comes to commissioning of the similar (even larger) Summit HPC system at Oak Ridge, where CMS is also expecting a resource allocation. Moreover the compute power of those systems is being provided also via GPUs and this represents an extremely valuable opportunity to exploit the offloading capability already implemented in CMSSW. The status of the current integration including the exploitation of the GPUs, the results of the validation as well as the future plans will be shown and discussed.

Boccali, Tommaso [INFN, Pisa]↗
DOE OSTI2018

Fast inference of deep neural networks in FPGAs for particle physics

Here, recent results at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) have pointed to enhanced physics capabilities through the improvement of the real-time event processing techniques. Machine learning methods are ubiquitous and have proven to be very powerful in LHC physics, and particle physics as a whole. However, exploration of the use of such techniques in low-latency, low-power FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) hardware has only just begun. FPGA-based trigger and data acquisition systems have extremely low, sub-microsecond latency requirements that are unique to particle physics. We present a case study for neural network inference in FPGAs focusing on a classifier for jet substructure which would enable, among many other physics scenarios, searches for new dark sector particles and novel measurements of the Higgs boson. While we focus on a specific example, the lessons are far-reaching. A companion compiler package for this work is developed based on High-Level Synthesis (HLS) called hls4ml to build machine learning models in FPGAs. The use of HLS increases accessibility across a broad user community and allows for a drastic decrease in firmware development time. We map out FPGA resource usage and latency versus neural network hyperparameters to identify the problems in particle physics that would benefit from performing neural network inference with FPGAs. For our example jet substructure model, we fit well within the available resources of modern FPGAs with a latency on the scale of 100 ns.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Status and future plans for C 3 R&D

C 3 is an opportunity to realize an e + e - collider for the study of the Higgs boson at √s = 250 GeV, with a well defined upgrade path to 550 GeV while staying on the same short facility footprint. C 3 is based on a fundamentally new approach to normal conducting linear accelerators that achieves both high gradient and high efficiency at relatively low cost. Given the advanced state of linear collider designs, the key system that requires technical maturation for C 3 is the main linac. This paper presents the staged approach towards a facility to demonstrate C 3 technology with both Direct (source and main linac) and Parallel (beam delivery, damping ring, ancillary component) R&D. The primary goal of the C 3 Demonstration R&D Plan is to reduce technical and cost risk by building and operating the key components of C 3 at an adequate scale. This R&D plan starts with the engineering design, and demonstration of one cryomodule and will culminate in the construction of a 3 cryomodule linac with pre-production prototypes. This R&D program would also demonstrate the linac rf fundamentals including achievable gradient and gradient stability over a full electron bunch train and breakdown rates. It will also investigate beam dynamics including energy spread, wakefields, and emittance growth. This work will be critical to confirm the suitability of the C 3 beam parameters for the physics reach and detector performance in preparation for a Conceptual Design Report (CDR), as well as for follow-on technology development and industrialization. The C 3 Demonstration R&D Plan will open up significant new scientific and technical opportunities based on development of high-gradient and high-efficiency accelerator technology. It will push this technology to operate both at the GeV scale and mature the technology to be reliable and provide high-brightness electron beams. The timeline for progressing with C 3 technology development will be governed by practical limitations on both the technical progress and resource availability. It consists of four stages: Stage 0) Ongoing fundamental R&D on structure prototypes, damping and vibrations. Stage 1) Advancing the engineering maturity of the design and developing start-to-end simulations including space-charge and wakefield effects. This stage will include testing of strucutres operating at cryogenic temperatures. Beam tests would be performed with high beam current to test full beam loading. Stage 2) Production and testing of the first cryomodule at cryogenic temperatures. This would provide sufficient experimental data to compile a CDR and it is anticipated for Stage 2 to last 3 years and to culminate with the transport of photo-electrons through the first cryomodule. Stage 3) Updates to the engineering design of the cryomodules, production of the second and third cryomodule and their installation. Lower charge and lower emittance beams will be used to investigate emittance growth. The successful full demonstration of the 3 cryomodules to deliver up to a 3 GeV beam and achieve the C 3 five gradient will allow a comprehensive and robust evaluation of the technical design of C 3 as well as mitigate technical, schedule, and cost risks required to proceed with a Technical Design Report (TDR).

radiation hardened magnets↗
DOE OSTI2017

Mapping water availability, cost and projected consumptive use in the Eastern United States with comparisons to the West

The availability of freshwater supplies to meet future demand is a growing concern. Water availability metrics are needed to inform future water development decisions. Furthermore, with the help of water managers, water availability was mapped for over 1300 watersheds throughout the 31-contiguous states in the eastern U.S. complimenting a prior study of the west. The compiled set of water availability data is unique in that it considers multiple sources of water (fresh surface and groundwater, wastewater and brackish groundwater); accommodates institutional controls placed on water use; is accompanied by cost estimates to access, treat and convey each unique source of water, and; is compared to projected future growth in consumptive water use to 2030. Although few administrative limits have been set on water availability in the east, water managers have identified 315 fresh surface water and 398 fresh groundwater basins (with 151 overlapping basins) as Areas of Concern (AOCs) where water supply challenges exist due to drought related concerns, environmental flows, groundwater overdraft, or salt water intrusion. This highlights a difference in management where AOCs are identified in the east which simply require additional permitting, while in the west strict administrative limits are established. Although the east is generally considered "water rich" roughly a quarter of the basins were identified as AOCs; however, this is still in strong contrast to the west where 78% of the surface water basins are operating at or near their administrative limit. There was little effort noted on the part of eastern or western water managers to quantify non-fresh water resources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Missing pieces to modeling the Arctic-Boreal puzzle

NASA has launched the decade-long Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). While the initial phases focus on field and airborne data collection, early integration with modeling activities is important to benefit future modeling syntheses. We compiled feedback from ecosystem modeling teams on key data needs, which encompass carbon biogeochemistry, vegetation, permafrost, hydrology, and disturbance dynamics. A suite of variables was identified as part of this activity with a critical requirement that they are collected concurrently and representatively over space and time. Furthermore, individual projects in ABoVE may not capture all these needs, and thus there is both demand and opportunity for the augmentation of field observations, and synthesis of the observations that are collected, to ensure that science questions and integrated modeling activities are successfully implemented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets

Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing a range of independent global monthly land ET estimates with historical model simulations from the global water, agriculture, and biomes sectors participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). Among the independent estimates, we use the EartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset (E2O), two commonly used reanalyses, a pre-compiled ensemble product (LandFlux-EVAL), and an updated collection of recently published datasets that algorithmically derive ET from observations or observations-based estimates (diagnostic datasets). A cluster analysis is applied in order to identify spatiotemporal differences among all datasets and to thus identify factors that dominate overall uncertainties. The clustering is controlled by several factors including the model choice, the meteorological forcing used to drive the assessed models, the data category (models participating in the different sectors of ISIMIP2a, E2O models, diagnostic estimates, reanalysis-based estimates or composite products), the ET scheme, and the number of soil layers in the models. By using these factors to explain spatial and spatio-temporal variabilities in ET, we and that the model choice mostly dominates (24%{40% of variance explained), except for spatio-temporal patterns of total ET, where the forcing explains the largest fraction of the variance (29%). The most dominant clusters of datasets are further compared with individual diagnostic and reanalysis-based estimates to assess their representation of selected heat waves and droughts in the Great Plains, Central Europe and Western Russia. Although most of the ET estimates capture these extreme events, the generally large spread among the entire ensemble indicates substantial uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

A decade of remotely sensed observations highlight complex processes linked to coastal permafrost bluff erosion in the Arctic

We report that eroding permafrost coasts are likely indicators and integrators of changes in the Arctic System as they are susceptible to the combined effects of declining sea ice extent, increases in open water duration, more frequent and impactful storms, sea-level rise, and warming permafrost. However, few observation sites in the Arctic have yet to link decadal-scale erosion rates with changing environmental conditions due to temporal data gaps. This study increases the temporal fidelity of coastal permafrost bluff observations using near-annual high spatial resolution (<1 m) satellite imagery acquired between 2008–2017 for a 9 km segment of coastline at Drew Point, Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska. Our results show that mean annual erosion for the 2007–2016 decade was 17.2 m yr -1 , which is 2.5 times faster than historic rates, indicating that bluff erosion at this site is likely responding to changes in the Arctic System. In spite of a sustained increase in decadal-scale mean annual erosion rates, mean open water season erosion varied from 6.7 m yr -1 in 2010 to more than 22.0 m yr -1 in 2007, 2012, and 2016. This variability provided a range of coastal responses through which we explored the different roles of potential environmental drivers. The lack of significant correlations between mean open water season erosion and the environmental variables compiled in this study indicates that we may not be adequately capturing the environmental forcing factors, that the system is conditioned by long-term transient effects or extreme weather events rather than annual variability, or that other not yet considered factors may be responsible for the increased erosion occurring at Drew Point. Finally, our results highlight an increase in erosion at Drew Point in the 21st century as well as the complexities associated with unraveling the factors responsible for changing coastal permafrost bluffs in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗