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At least 1,603 records · Page 89

The sun-weather connection - Sudden stratospheric warmings correlated with sudden commencements and solar proton events

It has been found that a strong correlation exists between sudden stratospheric warmings and sudden commencements of geomagnetic activity. This correlation follows a 22-yr cycle. The sudden warmings of the lower stratosphere occur near the north magnetic pole over Siberia and the Pacific, although occasionally they do occur over North America. A mechanism explaining how the solar wind ultimately affects the surface weather through its selective interaction with the middle atmosphere is outlined.

Neubauer, L.↗

Recent examples of mesoscale numerical forecasts of severe weather events along the east coast

Mesoscale numerical forecasts utilizing the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) are documented for two East Coast severe weather events. The two events are the thunderstorm and heavy snow bursts in the Washington, D.C. - Baltimore, MD region on 8 March 1984 and the devastating tornado outbreak across North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984. The forecasts are presented to demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate dynamical interactions and diabatic processes and to note some of the problems encountered when using mesoscale models for day-to-day forecasting.

Kocin, P. J.↗

Convective scale weather analysis and forecasting

How satellite data can be used to improve insight into the mesoscale behavior of the atmosphere is demonstrated with emphasis on the GOES-VAS sounding and image data. This geostationary satellite has the unique ability to observe frequently the atmosphere (sounders) and its cloud cover (visible and infrared) from the synoptic scale down to the cloud scale. These uniformly calibrated data sets can be combined with conventional data to reveal many of the features important in mesoscale weather development and evolution.

Purdom, J. F. W.↗

Results of tests of weathered K5NA closeout material in the MSFC Hot Gas Facility

The application of K5NA over hypolon was investigated. The effects of using K5NA over painted cork surfaces, the effects of weathering on the unpainted K5NA surfaces are determined, and the use of water versus solvent for tooling K5NA in place were compared. It is concluded that: (1) K5NA can be applied to hypalon surfaces; (2) K5NA can be left unpainted; and (3) K5NA can be tested with water or solvent.

Dean, W. G.↗

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 3

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 3 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 3 compares flight plans developed on the Suitland forecast with actual data observed by the aircraft (and averaged over 10 degree segments). The results show that the average difference between the forecast and observed wind speed is 9 kts. without considering direction, and the average difference in the component of the forecast wind parallel to the direction of the observed wind is 13 kts. - both indicating that the Suitland forecast underestimates the wind speeds. The Root Mean Square (RMS) vector error is 30.1 kts. The average absolute difference in direction between the forecast and observed wind is 26 degrees and the temperature difference is 3 degree Centigrade. These results indicate that the forecast model as well as the verifying analysis used to develop comparison flight plans in Tasks 1 and 2 is a limiting factor and that the average potential fuel savings or penalty are up to 3.6 percent depending on the direction of flight.

Keitz, J. F.↗

A factored implicit scheme for numerical weather prediction

An implicit method is proposed to factor the nonlinear partial differential equations governing fast and slow modes of dynamic motion in numerical weather prediction schemes. The method permits separate factorization of the slow and fast modes of the implicit operator. A simple two-dimensional version of the system of three-dimensional equations governing atmospheric dynamics over shallow water was analyzed to assess the accuracy of the proposed method. It is shown that the method has a small error which is comparable to other discretization errors in the overall scheme.

Augenbaum, J. M.↗

Analysis of airborne Doppler lidar, Doppler radar and tall tower measurements of atmospheric flows in quiescent and stormy weather

The first experiment to combine airborne Doppler Lidar and ground-based dual Doppler Radar measurements of wind to detail the lower tropospheric flows in quiescent and stormy weather was conducted in central Oklahoma during four days in June-July 1981. Data from these unique remote sensing instruments, coupled with data from conventional in-situ facilities, i.e., 500-m meteorological tower, rawinsonde, and surface based sensors, were analyzed to enhance understanding of wind, waves and turbulence. The purposes of the study were to: (1) compare winds mapped by ground-based dual Doppler radars, airborne Doppler lidar, and anemometers on a tower; (2) compare measured atmospheric boundary layer flow with flows predicted by theoretical models; (3) investigate the kinematic structure of air mass boundaries that precede the development of severe storms; and (4) study the kinematic structure of thunderstorm phenomena (downdrafts, gust fronts, etc.) that produce wind shear and turbulence hazardous to aircraft operations. The report consists of three parts: Part 1, Intercomparison of Wind Data from Airborne Lidar, Ground-Based Radars and Instrumented 444 m Tower; Part 2, The Structure of the Convective Atmospheric Boundary Layer as Revealed by Lidar and Doppler Radars; and Part 3, Doppler Lidar Observations in Thunderstorm Environments.

Bluestein, H. B.↗

The development of the geosynchronous weather satellite system

A brief history of the U.S. geosynchronous weather satellite program is presented. The introduction of multiparameter observation systems on the Geostationary Synchronous Environmental Satellite (GOES) is discussed, with emphasis given to the visible spin-scan radiometer (VISSR); Data Collection System (DCS); and the Space Environment Monitor (SEM). A synopsis of current measurement capabilities of the GOES satellites is given with respect to temperature and mositure parameters. Several examples of GOES satellite imagery are provided.

Greaves, J. R.↗

Review of experiments on the impact of satellite data on numerical weather prediction

A brief review is presented of simulation studies and real data experiments which were conducted to assess the impact of satellite observations on numerical weather prediction. These experiments show that while there has been some redundancy between observing systems, satellite data has made significant contributions toward improving global forecasting.

Atlas, R.↗

Reduction of weather effects in the calculation of sea ice concentration from microwave radiances

A technique is presented which improves existing methods of calculating sea ice concentrations from microwave radiances by reducing weather-related effects over open ocean areas and in the vicinity of marginal sea ice zones. Winds, atmospheric water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rain increase the microwave emission over these regions and thus result in erroneous values of computed sea ice concentration. The method described is based on the microwave spectral properties of sea ice and ice-free ocean and utilizes ratios of the polarized radiances at the 0.81-cm (37 GHz) and 1.7-cm (18 GHz) wavelengths. Following a discussion of the physical basis for this technique, examples are provided which demonstrate its utility. While the technique was developed for use with the Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer data, it is applicable also to data from other microwave radiometers operating in a similar wavelength range.

Gloersen, P.↗

Interannual variability of Martian weather

Pressure, temperature, imaging, and wind data from the Mutch Memorial Station, the Viking lander located in Mars' subtropics, are used to demonstrate the existence of two disctinct regimes of northern hemisphere winter weather on Mars. One of these regime is characterized by one or more intense global dust storms in which the optical depth reaches about 5 over most of the planet. During these events, traveling baroclinic waves of the winter hemisphere are suppressed. In the other regime, there are no global dust storms, but traveling baroclinic waves are active, and high winds associated with these storms raise large quantities of dust which remain confined to a shallow layer in the northern hemisphere. The strongest winds at the Mutch Memorial Station occur during intense storms in the latter regime.

Leovy, C. B.↗

Selective factors in sun-weather research

Research on the correlations between solar wind/IMF disturbances and subsequent winter troposphere vorticity changes (denoted SV) are reviewed to investigate sun-weather relationships. Uncertainties in the research attempting to link short-term solar variations and associated changes in the lower atmosphere are discussed, and it is noted that such analyses have generally not addressed either the choice of parameters or the selective factors involved in the physical relationships existing between parameters. It is suggested that the identification of a viable mechanism scenario would require a detailed multiparameter selective factor analysis, extending to the investigation of the atmospheric data as well as the solar wind/IMF parameters.

Taylor, H. A., Jr.↗

On the potential use of radar-derived information in operational numerical weather prediction

Estimates of requirements likely to be levied on a new observing system for mesoscale meteonology are given. Potential observing systems for mesoscale numerical weather prediction are discussed. Thermodynamic profiler radiometers, infrared radiometer atmospheric sounders, Doppler radar wind profilers and surveillance radar, and moisture profilers are among the instruments described.

Mcpherson, R. D.↗

Gravity waves in severe weather

With a view to determining the role of severe weather in producing gravity waves, two tests were made. In the first, the wind speed measured at two nearby radiosonde stations, Peoria and Salem, was correlated with the stratosphere gravity-wave intensity at Urbana. Although the gravity-wave intensity fluctuated greatly from day to day, these is little if any correlation with the stratospheric wind speed. This suggests that orographic forcing is not a factor in generating gravity waves in Urbana. On the other hand, a clear correlation is found between cloud to heights exceeding 20,000 ft and an increased gravity-wave amplitude in the stratosphere.

Bowhill, S. A.↗

Observational and theoretical studies of the evolving structure of baroclinic waves: Attractor dynamics of global weather systems

Significant progress was made in developing a six-component dry model of mid-latitude baroclinic wave evolution, and a ten-component moist model. These models include representations of airflow over mountians and non-adiabatic processes. As a first step, the properties of a reduced, three component, baroclinic system are studied. The classical baroclinic stability criteria emerge as the properties of one of the three equilibria admitted, with the remaining two equilibria forming the attractor region for the observed weather activity. Passive tracer evolution in a baroclinic wave was studied. A model in which only constituents trapped within low atmospheric levels are considered, has been extended to include the possibility for fluxes into the upper levels of the atmosphere. The reported results for the lower levels achieved previously are shown to be qualitatively similar to those obtained by these new calculations in which the vertical flux constraint is removed. An extensive study of an 8-year record of global outgoing longwave radiation for the Northern Hemisphere reveals that blocking events exhibit only a weak signature of blocking highs, as measured by relatively low values of the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean value of the observed long wave outgoing radiation. Though present in many cases, the signature is not a strongly distinctive feature of the blocking episodes.

Saltzman, B.↗

Utilization of satellite data in mesoscale modeling of severe weather

The Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data were used to model the 36 hour cyclogenesis period over the Pacific Ocean. Various combinations of VAS data, conventional radiosonde data, and gridded data from the National Weather Service global analysis were used in successive-correction and variational objective-analysis procedures. The Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model was used to test the impact of the VAS data on a 12 hour forecast of convective precipitation in the midweastern U.S.

Warner, Thomas T.↗