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COVID-19 trends at the University of Tennessee: predictive insights from raw sewage SARS-CoV-2 detection and evaluation and PMMoV as an indicator for human waste

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has become a valuable tool for monitoring the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 on university campuses. However, concerns about effectiveness of raw sewage as a COVID-19 early warning system still exist, and it’s not clear how useful normalization by simultaneous comparison of Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV) is in addressing variations resulting from fecal discharge dilution. This study aims to contribute insights into these aspects by conducting an academic-year field trial at the student residences on the University of Tennessee, Knoxville campus, raw sewage. This was done to investigate the correlations between SARS-CoV-2 RNA load, both with and without PMMoV normalization, and various parameters, including active COVID-19 cases, self-isolations, and their combination among all student residents. Significant positive correlations between SARS-CoV-2 RNA load a week prior, during the monitoring week, and the subsequent week with active cases. Despite these correlations, normalization by PMMoV does not enhance these associations. These findings suggest the potential utility of SARS-CoV-2 RNA load as an early warning indicator and provide valuable insights into the application and limitations of WBE for COVID-19 surveillance specifically within the context of raw sewage on university campuses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

COVID-19 vaccination status, side effects, and perceptions among breast cancer survivors: a cross-sectional study in China

Introduction Breast cancer is the most prevalent malignancy in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, vaccination data of this population are limited. Methods A cross-sectional study of COVID-19 vaccination was conducted in China. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination status. Results Of 2,904 participants, 50.2% were vaccinated with acceptable side effects. Most of the participants received inactivated virus vaccines. The most common reason for vaccination was “fear of infection” (56.2%) and “workplace/government requirement” (33.1%). While the most common reason for nonvaccination was “worry that vaccines cause breast cancer progression or interfere with treatment” (72.9%) and “have concerns about side effects or safety” (39.6%). Patients who were employed (odds ratio, OR = 1.783, p = 0.015), had stage I disease at diagnosis (OR = 2.008, p = 0.019), thought vaccines could provide protection (OR = 1.774, p = 0.007), thought COVID-19 vaccines were safe, very safe, not safe, and very unsafe (OR = 2.074, p < 0.001; OR = 4.251, p < 0.001; OR = 2.075, p = 0.011; OR = 5.609, p = 0.003, respectively) were more likely to receive vaccination. Patients who were 1–3 years, 3–5 years, and more than 5 years after surgery (OR = 0.277, p < 0.001; OR = 0.277, p < 0.001, OR = 0.282, p < 0.001, respectively), had a history of food or drug allergies (OR = 0.579, p = 0.001), had recently undergone endocrine therapy (OR = 0.531, p < 0.001) were less likely to receive vaccination. Conclusion COVID-19 vaccination gap exists in breast cancer survivors, which could be filled by raising awareness and increasing confidence in vaccine safety during cancer treatment, particularly for the unemployed individuals.

Xu, Yali↗

A scoping review of zoonotic parasites and pathogens associated with abattoirs in Eastern Africa and recommendations for abattoirs as disease surveillance sites

Abattoirs are facilities where livestock are slaughtered and are an important aspect in the food production chain. There are several types of abattoirs, which differ in infrastructure and facilities, sanitation and PPE practices, and adherence to regulations. In each abattoir facility, worker exposure to animals and animal products increases their risk of infection from zoonotic pathogens. Backyard abattoirs and slaughter slabs have the highest risk of pathogen transmission because of substandard hygiene practices and minimal infrastructure. These abattoir conditions can often contribute to environmental contamination and may play a significant role in disease outbreaks within communities. To assess further the risk of disease, we conducted a scoping review of parasites and pathogens among livestock and human workers in abattoirs across 13 Eastern African countries, which are hotspots for zoonoses. Our search results (n = 104 articles) showed the presence of bacteria, viruses, fungi, and macroparasites (nematodes, cestodes, etc.) in cattle, goats, sheep, pigs, camels, and poultry. Most articles reported results from cattle, and the most frequent pathogen detected was Mycobacterium bovis, which causes bovine tuberculosis. Some articles included worker survey and questionnaires that suggested how the use of PPE along with proper worker training and safe animal handling practices could reduce disease risk. Based on these findings, we discuss ways to improve abattoir biosafety and increase biosurveillance for disease control and mitigation. Abattoirs are a ‘catch all’ for pathogens, and by surveying animals at abattoirs, health officials can determine which diseases are prevalent in different regions and which pathogens are most likely transmitted from wildlife to livestock. We suggest a regional approach to biosurveillance, which will improve testing and data gathering for enhanced disease risk mapping and forecasting. Next generation sequencing will be key in identifying a wide range of pathogens, rather than a targeted approach.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Spatial and temporal metagenomics of river compartments reveals viral community dynamics in an urban impacted stream

Although river ecosystems constitute a small fraction of Earth’s total area, they are critical modulators of microbially and virally orchestrated global biogeochemical cycles. However, most studies either use data that is not spatially resolved or is collected at timepoints that do not reflect the short life cycles of microorganisms. To address this gap, we assessed how viral and microbial communities change over a 48-hour period by sampling surface water and pore water compartments of the wastewater-impacted River Erpe in Germany. We sampled every 3 hours resulting in 32 samples for which we obtained metagenomes along with geochemical and metabolite measurements. From our metagenomes, we identified 6,500 viral and 1,033 microbial metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) and found distinct community membership and abundance associated with each river compartment (e.g., Competibacteraceae in surfacewater and Sulfurimonadaceae in pore water). We show that 17% of our viral MAGs clustered to viruses from other ecosystems like wastewater treatment plants and rivers. Our results also indicated that 70% of the viral community was persistent in surface waters, whereas only 13% were persistent in the pore waters taken from the hyporheic zone. Finally, we predicted linkages between 73 viral genomes and 38 microbial genomes. These putatively linked hosts included members of the Competibacteraceae, which we suggest are potential contributors to river carbon and nitrogen cycling via denitrification and nitrogen fixation. Together, these findings demonstrate that members of the surface water microbiome from this urban river are stable over multiple diurnal cycles. These temporal insights raise important considerations for ecosystem models attempting to constrain dynamics of river biogeochemical cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of Senecavirus A Isolates Collected From the Environment of U.S. Sow Slaughter Plants

Vesicular disease caused by Senecavirus A (SVA) is clinically indistinguishable from foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and other vesicular diseases of swine. When a vesicle is observed in FMD-free countries, a costly and time-consuming foreign animal disease investigation (FADI) is performed to rule out FMD. Recently, there has been an increase in the number of FADIs and SVA positive samples at slaughter plants in the U.S. The objectives of this investigation were to: (1) describe the environmental burden of SVA in sow slaughter plants; (2) determine whether there was a correlation between PCR diagnostics, virus isolation (VI), and swine bioassay results; and (3) phylogenetically characterize the genetic diversity of contemporary SVA isolates. Environmental swabs were collected from three sow slaughter plants (Plants 1-3) and one market-weight slaughter plant (Plant 4) between June to December 2020. Of the 426 samples taken from Plants 1-3, 304 samples were PCR positive and 107 were VI positive. There was no detection of SVA by PCR or VI at Plant 4. SVA positive samples were most frequently found in the summer (78.3% June-September, vs. 59.4% October-December), with a peak at 85% in August. Eighteen PCR positive environmental samples with a range of C t values were selected for a swine bioassay: a single sample infected piglets ( n = 2). A random subset of the PCR positive samples was sequenced; and phylogenetic analysis demonstrated co-circulation and divergence of two genetically distinct groups of SVA. These data demonstrate that SVA was frequently found in the environment of sow slaughter plants, but environmental persistence and diagnostic detection was not indicative of whether a sampled was infectious to swine. Consequently, a more detailed understanding of the epidemiology of SVA and its environmental persistence in the marketing chain is necessary to reduce the number of FADIs and aide in the development of control measures to reduce the spread of SVA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of a reconfiguration of the InterSpread Plus US national FMD model as a potential tool to analyze a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak on a single large cattle feedlot in the United States

An incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the United States remains a concern of high importance and would have devastating socioeconomic impacts to the livestock and associated industries. This highly transmissible and infectious disease poses continual risk for introduction into the United States (US), due to the legal and illegal global movement of people, animals, and animal products. While stamping out has been shown to effectively control FMD, depopulation of large cattle feedlots (>50,000 head) presents a number of challenges for responders due to the resources required to depopulate and dispose of large numbers of animals in a timely and effective manner. However, evaluating alternative strategies for FMD control on large feedlots requires a detailed within-farm modeling approach, which can account for the unique structure of these operations. To address this, we developed a single feedlot, within-farm spread model using a novel configuration within the InterSpread Plus (ISP) framework. As proof of concept we designed six scenarios: (i) depopulation - the complete depopulation of the feedlot, (ii) burn-through – a managed “burn-through” where the virus is allowed to spread through the feedlot and only movement restriction and biosecurity are implemented, (iii) firebreak-NV – targeted depopulation of infected pens and adjacent pens without vaccination; (iv) firebreak - targeted depopulation of infected pens and adjacent pens with vaccination of remaining pens; (v) harvest-NV - selective harvest of pens where a 100% movement restriction is applied for 28-30 days, then pens are set for selection to be sent to slaughter, while allowing a controlled “burn-through” without vaccination; and (vi) harvest - selective harvest of pens with vaccination. Overall, the burn-through scenario (ii) had the shortest epidemic duration (31d (30, 33)) median (25th, 75th percentiles), while the firebreak scenario (iv) had the longest (47d (38,55)). Additionally, we found that scenarios implementing depopulation delayed the peak day of infection and reduced the total number of pens infected compared to non-depopulation scenarios.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Histopathological characteristics of PRRS and expression profiles of viral receptors in the piglet immune system

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is a highly contagious viral disease that causes significant economic losses to the swine industry worldwide. PRRS virus (PRRSV) infection is a receptor-mediated endocytosis and replication process. The purpose of this study was to determine the localization and expression of four important PRRSV receptors in immunological organs of piglets. After piglets were infected with PRRSV, Hematoxylin and Eosin staining, immunofluorescence, and Western blot were used to perform histopathological examination and receptors distribution analysis. The results showed that PRRSV caused severe damage to the piglets’ immune organs, including atrophy of the thymus and swelling of lymph node. Histopathological lesions were mainly observed in the lung and lymph node and were characterized by interstitial pneumonia, collapsed follicles, exhaustion of germinal centers, and extensive hemorrhage. Immunofluorescence staining and Western blot results showed that the receptors of CD163 and NMHCII-A were mainly distributed in the thymus, hilar lymph nodes, and mesenteric lymph nodes. However, Sn and vimentin receptors were expressed at low levels in the immune organs of piglets. The distribution of the four receptors in the immune organs was more concentrated in the cortex but was more scattered in the medulla. Compared to the control group, the relative expression of the four receptors increased significantly in most immune organs after viral infection. In conclusion, our study examined the distribution and expression of four PRRSV receptors in immunological organs. We observed a significant increase in the expression of Sn, CD163, and vimentin following viral infection. These findings may provide potential targets for future antiviral reagent design or vaccine development.

Chen, Hong↗

Predicting SARS-CoV-2 Variant Using Non-Invasive Hand Odor Analysis: A Pilot Study

The adaptable nature of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has led to the emergence of multiple viral variants of concern. This research builds upon a previous demonstration of sampling human hand odor to distinguish SARS-CoV-2 infection status in order to incorporate considerations of the disease variants. This study demonstrates the ability of human odor expression to be implemented as a non-invasive medium for the differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were extracted from SARS-CoV-2-positive samples using solid phase microextraction (SPME) coupled with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS). Sparse partial least squares discriminant analysis (sPLS-DA) modeling revealed that supervised machine learning could be used to predict the variant identity of a sample using VOC expression alone. The class discrimination of Delta and Omicron BA.5 variant samples was performed with 95.2% (±0.4) accuracy. Omicron BA.2 and Omicron BA.5 variants were correctly classified with 78.5% (±0.8) accuracy. Lastly, Delta and Omicron BA.2 samples were assigned with 71.2% (±1.0) accuracy. This work builds upon the framework of non-invasive techniques producing diagnostics through the analysis of human odor expression, all in support of public health monitoring.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling the Influenza A NP-vRNA-Polymerase Complex in Atomic Detail

Seasonal flu is an acute respiratory disease that exacts a massive toll on human populations, healthcare systems and economies. The disease is caused by an enveloped Influenza virus containing eight ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complexes. Each RNP incorporates multiple copies of nucleoprotein (NP), a fragment of the viral genome (vRNA), and a viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (POL), and is responsible for packaging the viral genome and performing critical functions including replication and transcription. A complete model of an Influenza RNP in atomic detail can elucidate the structural basis for viral genome functions, and identify potential targets for viral therapeutics. In this work we construct a model of a complete Influenza A RNP complex in atomic detail using multiple sources of structural and sequence information and a series of homology-modeling techniques, including a motif-matching fragment assembly method. Our final model provides a rationale for experimentally-observed changes to viral polymerase activity in numerous mutational assays. Further, our model reveals specific interactions between the three primary structural components of the RNP, including potential targets for blocking POL-binding to the NP-vRNA complex. The methods developed in this work open the possibility of elucidating other functionally-relevant atomic-scale interactions in additional RNP structures and other biomolecular complexes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Towards Quantum-Chemical Level Calculations of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Variants of Concern by First Principles Density Functional Theory

The spike protein (S-protein) is a crucial part of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), with its many domains responsible for binding, fusion, and host cell entry. In this review we use the density functional theory (DFT) calculations to analyze the atomic-scale interactions and investigate the consequences of mutations in S-protein domains. We specifically describe the key amino acids and functions of each domain, which are essential for structural stability as well as recognition and fusion processes with the host cell; in addition, we speculate on how mutations affect these properties. Such unprecedented large-scale ab initio calculations, with up to 5000 atoms in the system, are based on the novel concept of amino acid–amino acid-bond pair unit (AABPU) that allows for an alternative description of proteins, providing valuable information on partial charge, interatomic bonding and hydrogen bond (HB) formation. In general, our results show that the S-protein mutations for different variants foster an increased positive partial charge, alter the interatomic interactions, and disrupt the HB networks. We conclude by outlining a roadmap for future computational research of biomolecular virus-related systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Optical Biosensor Platforms Display Varying Sensitivity for the Direct Detection of Influenza RNA

Detection methods that do not require nucleic acid amplification are advantageous for viral diagnostics due to their rapid results. These platforms could provide information for both accurate diagnoses and pandemic surveillance. Influenza virus is prone to pandemic-inducing genetic mutations, so there is a need to apply these detection platforms to influenza diagnostics. Here, we analyzed the Fast Evaluation of Viral Emerging Risks (FEVER) pipeline on ultrasensitive detection platforms, including a waveguide-based optical biosensor and a flow cytometry bead-based assay. The pipeline was also evaluated in silico for sequence coverage in comparison to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) influenza A and B diagnostic assays. The influenza FEVER probe design had a higher tolerance for mismatched bases than the CDC’s probes, and the FEVER probes altogether had a higher detection rate for influenza isolate sequences from GenBank. When formatted for use as molecular beacons, the FEVER probes detected influenza RNA as low as 50 nM on the waveguide-based optical biosensor and 1 nM on the flow cytometer. In addition to molecular beacons, which have an inherently high background signal we also developed an exonuclease selection method that could detect 500 pM of RNA. The combination of high-coverage probes developed using the FEVER pipeline coupled with ultrasensitive optical biosensors is a promising approach for future influenza diagnostic and biosurveillance applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Case Study of High-Throughput Drug Screening and Remote Data Collection for SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease by Using Serial Femtosecond X-ray Crystallography

Since early 2020, COVID-19 has grown to affect the lives of billions globally. A worldwide investigation has been ongoing for characterizing the virus and also for finding an effective drug and developing vaccines. As time has been of the essence, a crucial part of this research has been drug repurposing; therefore, confirmation of in silico drug screening studies have been carried out for this purpose. Here we demonstrated the possibility of screening a variety of drugs efficiently by leveraging a high data collection rate of 120 images/second with the new low-noise, high dynamic range ePix10k2M Pixel Array Detector installed at the Macromolecular Femtosecond Crystallography (MFX) instrument at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). The X-ray Free-Electron Laser (XFEL) is used for remote high-throughput data collection for drug repurposing of the main protease (Mpro) of SARS-CoV-2 at ambient temperature with mitigated X-ray radiation damage. We obtained multiple structures soaked with nine drug candidate molecules in two crystal forms. Although our drug binding attempts failed, we successfully established a high-throughput Serial Femtosecond X-ray crystallographic (SFX) data collection protocol.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Chronic Cardiotoxicity Assays Using Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell-Derived Cardiomyocytes (hiPSC-CMs)

Cardiomyocytes (CMs) differentiated from human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) are increasingly used in cardiac safety assessment, disease modeling and regenerative medicine. A vast majority of cardiotoxicity studies in the past have tested acute effects of compounds and drugs; however, these studies lack information on the morphological or physiological responses that may occur after prolonged exposure to a cardiotoxic compound. In this review, we focus on recent advances in chronic cardiotoxicity assays using hiPSC-CMs. We summarize recently published literature on hiPSC-CMs assays applied to chronic cardiotoxicity induced by anticancer agents, as well as non-cancer classes of drugs, including antibiotics, anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) and antidiabetic drugs. We then review publications on the implementation of hiPSC-CMs-based assays to investigate the effects of non-pharmaceutical cardiotoxicants, such as environmental chemicals or chronic alcohol consumption. We also highlight studies demonstrating the chronic effects of smoking and implementation of hiPSC-CMs to perform genomic screens and metabolomics-based biomarker assay development. The acceptance and wide implementation of hiPSC-CMs-based assays for chronic cardiotoxicity assessment will require multi-site standardization of assay protocols, chronic cardiac maturity marker reproducibility, time points optimization, minimal cellular variation (commercial vs. lab reprogrammed), stringent and matched controls and close clinical setting resemblance. A comprehensive investigation of long-term repeated exposure-induced effects on both the structure and function of cardiomyocytes can provide mechanistic insights and recapitulate drug and environmental cardiotoxicity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effect of Delta and Omicron Mutations on the RBD-SD1 Domain of the Spike Protein in SARS-CoV-2 and the Omicron Mutations on RBD-ACE2 Interface Complex

The receptor-binding domain (RBD) is the essential part in the Spike-protein (S-protein) of SARS-CoV-2 virus that directly binds to the human ACE2 receptor, making it a key target for many vaccines and therapies. Therefore, any mutations at this domain could affect the efficacy of these treatments as well as the viral-cell entry mechanism. We introduce ab initio DFT-based computational study that mainly focuses on two parts: (1) Mutations effects of both Delta and Omicron variants in the RBD-SD1 domain. (2) Impact of Omicron RBD mutations on the structure and properties of the RBD-ACE2 interface system. The in-depth analysis is based on the novel concept of amino acid-amino acid bond pair units (AABPU) that reveal the differences between the Delta and/or Omicron mutations and its corresponding wild-type strain in terms of the role played by non-local amino acid interactions, their 3D shapes and sizes, as well as contribution to hydrogen bonding and partial charge distributions. Our results also show that the interaction of Omicron RBD with ACE2 significantly increased its bonding between amino acids at the interface providing information on the implications of penetration of S-protein into ACE2, and thus offering a possible explanation for its high infectivity. Our findings enable us to present, in more conspicuous atomic level detail, the effect of specific mutations that may help in predicting and/or mitigating the next variant of concern.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Amyloidogenesis: What Do We Know So Far?

The study of protein aggregation, and amyloidosis in particular, has gained considerable interest in recent times. Several neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer’s (AD) and Parkinson’s (PD) show a characteristic buildup of proteinaceous aggregates in several organs, especially the brain. Despite the enormous upsurge in research articles in this arena, it would not be incorrect to say that we still lack a crystal-clear idea surrounding these notorious aggregates. In this review, we attempt to present a holistic picture on protein aggregation and amyloids in particular. Using a chronological order of discoveries, we present the case of amyloids right from the onset of their discovery, various biophysical techniques, including analysis of the structure, the mechanisms and kinetics of the formation of amyloids. We have discussed important questions on whether aggregation and amyloidosis are restricted to a subset of specific proteins or more broadly influenced by the biophysiochemical and cellular environment. The therapeutic strategies and the significant failure rate of drugs in clinical trials pertaining to these neurodegenerative diseases have been also discussed at length. At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic has hit the globe hard, the review also discusses the plausibility of the far-reaching consequences posed by the virus, such as triggering early onset of amyloidosis. Finally, the application(s) of amyloids as useful biomaterials has also been discussed briefly in this review.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Antiviral Activity and Crystal Structures of HIV-1 gp120 Antagonists

As part of our effort to discover drugs that target HIV-1 entry, we report the antiviral activity and crystal structures of two novel inhibitors in a complex with a gp120 core. NBD-14204 showed similar antiviral activity against all the clinical isolates tested. The IC50 values were in the range of 0.24–0.9 µM with an overall mean of 0.47 ± 0.03 µM, showing slightly better activity against the clinical isolates than against the lab-adapted HIV-1 HXB2 (IC 50 = 0.96 ± 0.1 µM). Moreover, the antiviral activity of NBD-14208 was less consistent, showing a wider range of IC 50 values (0.66–5.7 µM) with an overall mean of 3 ± 0.25 µM and better activity against subtypes B and D (Mean IC 50 2.2–2.5 µM) than the A, C and Rec viruses (Mean IC 50 2.9–3.9 µM). SI of NBD-14204 was about 10-fold higher than NBD-14208, making it a better lead compound for further optimization. In addition, we tested these compounds against S375Y and S375H mutants of gp120, which occurred in some clades and observed these to be sensitive to NBD-14204 and NBD-14208. These inhibitors also showed modest activity against HIV-1 reverse transcriptase. Furthermore, we determined the crystal structures of both inhibitors in complexes with gp120 cores. As expected, both NBD-14204 and NBD-14208 bind primarily within the Phe43 cavity. It is noteworthy that the electron density of the thiazole ring in both structures was poorly defined due to the flexibility of this scaffold, suggesting that these compounds maintain substantial entropy, even when bound to the Phe43 cavity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Eco-Bio-Social Factors That Modulate Aedes aegypti Abundance in South Texas Border Communities

Aedes aegypti control requires dedicated resources that are usually scarce, limiting the reach and sustainability of vector control programs. This generates a need to focus on areas at risk of disease transmission and also understand the factors that might modulate local mosquito abundance. We evaluated the eco-bio-social factors that modulate indoor and outdoor relative abundance of female Ae. aegypti in communities of South Texas. We conducted housing quality and Knowledge Attitudes and Practices surveys in households that were part of a weekly mosquito surveillance program in November of 2017 and 2018. Our results showed widespread knowledge of mosquitoes and Zika virus by our participants. However, less than 35% considered them as serious problems in this region. The presence of window-mounted air conditioning units increased the risk of female mosquito relative abundance indoors. An increase in outdoor relative abundance was associated with larger properties and a higher number of children between 6 to 17 years of age. Interestingly, we observed that an increasing number of children <5 years of age modulated both indoor and outdoor relative abundance, with a 52% increase indoors and 30% decrease outdoors. The low perception of mosquito and disease risk highlights engagement needs for vector-borne disease prevention in this region. The identified risk factors can help guide public health officials in their efforts to reduce human and vector contact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Within-Host Phenotypic Evolution and the Population-Level Control of Chronic Viral Infections by Treatment and Prophylaxis

Chronic viral infections can persist for decades spanning thousands of viral generations, leading to a highly diverse population of viruses with its own complex evolutionary history. We propose an expandable mathematical framework for understanding how the emergence of genetic and phenotypic diversity affects the population-level control of those infections by both non-curative treatment and chemo-prophylactic measures. Our frameworks allows both neutral and phenotypic evolution, and we consider the specific evolution of contagiousness, resistance to therapy, and efficacy of prophylaxis. We compute both the controlled and uncontrolled, population-level basic reproduction number accounting for the within-host evolutionary process where new phenotypes emerge and are lost in infected persons, which we also extend to include both treatment and prophylactic control efforts. We used these results to discuss the conditions under which the relative efficacy of prophylactic versus therapeutic methods of control are superior. Finally, we give expressions for the endemic equilibrium of these models for certain constrained versions of the within-host evolutionary model providing a potential method for estimating within-host evolutionary parameters from population-level genetic sequence data.

sensitivity analysis↗