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Results for “Uncertainty analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,603 records · Page 89
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

High pressure/high temperature multiphase simulations of dodecane injection to nitrogen: Application on ECN Spray-A

The present work investigates the complex phenomena associated with pressure/high temperature dodecane injection for the Engine Combustion Network (ECN) Spray-A case, employing more elaborate thermodynamic closures, to avoid well known deficiencies concerning density and speed of sound prediction using traditional cubic models. A tabulated thermodynamic approach is proposed here, based on log 10 (p)-T tables, providing very high accuracy across a large range of pressures, spanning from 0 to 2500 bar, with only a small number of interpolation points. The tabulation approach is directly extensible to any thermodynamic model, existing or to be developed in the future. Here NIST REFPROP properties are used, combined with PC-SAFT Vapor-Liquid-Equilibrium to identify the liquid in mixtures penetration, hence avoiding the use of an arbitrary threshold for mass fraction. Identified liquid and vapour penetration are compared against experimental data from the ECN database showing a good agreement, within approximately 3–8% for axial penetration of liquid, 2% for vapor axial penetration and within experimental uncertainty for radial distribution of mass fraction. Analysis of the vortex evolution indicates that driving mechanisms behind the jet break-up are vortex tilting/stretching, then baroclinic torque, leading to Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities, closely followed by vortex dilation and finally viscous effects.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel framework for hosting capacity analysis with spatio-temporal probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis

Smart grids are envisioned to accommodate high penetration of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation, which may cause adverse grid impacts in terms of voltage violations. Therefore, PV Hosting capacity is being used as a planning tool to determine the maximum PV installation capacity that causes the first voltage violation and above which would require infrastructure upgrades. Additionally, traditional methods of Hosting capacity analysis are scenario based and computationally complex as they rely on iterative load flow algorithms that require investigating a large number of scenarios for accurate assessment of PV impacts. Therefore, this paper presents a computationally efficient analytical approach to compute the probability distribution of voltage change due to random behavior of randomly located multiple distributed PVs. The proposed approach is based on Spatio-temporal probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis that exploits both spatial and temporal uncertainties associated with PV injections. Thereafter, the derived distribution is used to quantify voltage violations for various PV penetration levels and subsequently determine the hosting capacity of the system without the need to examine large number of scenarios. Results of the proposed framework are validated via conventional load flow based simulation approach on the IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 node test systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The gallium anomaly

In order to test the end-to-end operations of gallium solar neutrino experiments, intense electron-capture sources were fabricated to measure the responses of the radiochemical SAGE and GALLEX/GNO detectors to known fluxes of low-energy neutrinos. Such tests were viewed at the time as a cross-check, given the many tests of 71 Ge recovery and counting that had been routinely performed, with excellent results. However, the four 51 Cr and 37 Ar source experiments yielded rates below expectations, a result commonly known as the Ga anomaly. As the intensity of the electron-capture sources can be measured to high precision, the neutrino lines they produce are fixed by known atomic and nuclear rates, and the neutrino absorption cross section on 71 Ga is tightly constrained by the lifetime of 71 Ge, no simple explanation for the anomaly has been found. To check these calibration experiments, a dedicated experiment BEST was performed, utilizing a neutrino source of unprecedented intensity and a detector optimized to increase statistics while providing some information on counting rate as a function of distance from the source. The results BEST obtained are consistent with the earlier solar neutrino calibration experiments, and when combined with those measurements, yield a Ga anomaly with a significance of approximately 4𝜎, under conservative assumptions. But BEST found no evidence of distance dependence and thus no explicit indication of new physics. In this review we describe the extensive campaigns carried out by SAGE, GALLEX/GNO, and BEST to demonstrate the reliability and precision of their experimental procedures, including 71 Ge recovery, counting, and analysis. We also describe efforts to define uncertainties in the neutrino capture cross section, which now include estimates of effects at the ≲ 0.5% level such as radiative corrections and weak magnetism. With the results from BEST, an anomaly remains even if one retains only the transition to the 71 Ge ground state, whose strength is fixed by the known lifetime of 71 Ge. We then consider the new-physics solution most commonly suggested to resolve the Ga anomaly, oscillations into a sterile fourth neutrino, 𝜈 𝑒 → 𝜈 𝑠 . We find such a solution generates substantial tension with several null experiments, owing to the large mixing angle required. While this does not exclude such solutions – the sterile sector might include multiple neutrinos as well as new interactions – it shows the need for more experimental constraints, if we are to make progress in resolving the Ga and other low-energy neutrino anomalies. We conclude by consider the role future low-energy electron-capture sources could play in this effort.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gridded daily weather data for North America with comprehensive uncertainty quantification

Abstract Access to daily high-resolution gridded surface weather data based on direct observations and over long time periods is essential for many studies and applications including vegetation, wildlife, soil health, hydrological modelling, and as driver data in Earth system models. We present Daymet V4, a 40-year daily meteorological dataset on a 1 km grid for North America, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, providing temperature, precipitation, shortwave radiation, vapor pressure, snow water equivalent, and day length. The dataset includes an objective quantification of uncertainty based on strict cross-validation analysis for temperature and precipitation results. The dataset represents several improvements from a previous version, and this data descriptor provides complete documentation for updated methods. Improvements include: reductions in the timing bias of input reporting weather station measurements; improvement to the three-dimensional regression model techniques in the core algorithm; and a novel approach to handling high elevation temperature measurement biases. We show cross-validation analyses with the underlying weather station data to demonstrate the technical validity of new dataset generation methods, and to quantify improved accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental study of the isomeric state in 16 N using the 16 N$^{g,m}$($\textit{d}$, 3 He) reaction

Here, the isomeric state of 16 N was studied using the 16 N$^{g,m}$($\textit{d}$, 3 He) proton-removal reactions at 11.8 MeV/u in inverse kinematics. The 16 N beam, of which 24% was in the isomeric state, was produced using the Argonne Tandem-Linac Accelerator System (ATLAS) in-flight system and delivered to the Helical Orbit Spectrometer (HELIOS), which was used to analyze the 3 He ions from the ($\textit{d}$, 3 He) reactions. The simultaneous measurement of reactions on both the ground state and the isomeric states, reduced the systematic uncertainties from the experiment and in the analysis. A direct and reliable extraction of the relative spectroscopic factors was made based on a distorted-wave Born approximation approach. The experimental results suggest that the isomeric state of 16N is an excited neutron-halo state. The results can be understood through calculations using a Woods-Saxon potential model, which captures the effects of weak binding.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental Ignition Delay Time Measurements and Chemical Kinetics Modeling of Hydrogen/Ammonia/Natural Gas Fuels

In recent years, hydrogen-carrying compounds have accrued interest as an alternative to traditional fossil fuels due to their function as zero-emission fuels. As such, there is interest in investigating hydrogen-carrying compounds to improve understanding of the fuels' characteristics for use in high pressure systems. In the current study, the oxidation of ammonia/natural gas/hydrogen mixtures was carried out to study carbon monoxide (CO) formation profiles as well as the ignition delay times (IDTs) behind reflected shock waves in order to refine chemical kinetic models. Experiments were carried out in the University of Central Florida's shock tube facility by utilizing chemiluminescence to obtain OH* emission and laser absorption spectroscopy to obtain CO profiles over a temperature range between 1200 K and 1800 K with an average pressure of 2.2 atm. Experimental mixtures included both neat and combination natural gas/hydrogen with ammonia addition, with all mixtures except one having an equivalence ratio of 1. Results were then compared with the GRI 3.0 mechanism, as well as the newly developed UCF 2022 mechanism utilizing chemkin-pro software. In general, both models were able to capture the trend in auto-ignition delay times and CO time histories for natural gas and ammonia mixtures. However, for ammonia–hydrogen mixtures, GRI 3.0 failed to predict ignition delay times, whereas the UCF 2022 mechanism was able to capture the IDTs within the uncertainty limits of the experiments. A sensitivity analysis was conducted for different mixtures to understand the important reactions at the experimental conditions. Lastly, a reaction pathway analysis was carried out to understand important ammonia decomposition pathways in the presence of hydrogen and natural gas.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autoignition Delay Time Measurements and Chemical Kinetic Modeling of Hydrogen/Ammonia/Natural Gas Mixtures

Abstract In recent years, hydrogen-carrying compounds have accrued interest as an alternative to traditional fossil fuels due to their function as zero-emission fuels. As such, there is interest in investigating hydrogen-carrying compounds to improve understanding of the fuels’ characteristics for use in high-pressure systems. In the current study, the oxidation of ammonia/natural gas/hydrogen mixtures was carried out to study CO formation profiles as well as the ignition delay times behind reflected shock waves in order to refine chemical kinetic models. Experiments were carried out in the University of Central Florida’s shock tube facility by utilizing chemiluminescence to obtain OH* emission and laser absorption spectroscopy to obtain CO profiles. Experimental results were then compared with the GRI 3.0 mechanism, as well as the proprietary UCF 2022 mechanism utilizing CHEMKIN-Pro software. In general, both models were able to capture the trend in autoignition delay times and CO time histories for natural gas and ammonia mixtures. However, for ammonia-hydrogen mixtures, GRI 3.0 failed to predict ignition delay times whereas the UCF 2022 mechanism was able to capture the IDTs within the uncertainty limits of the experiments. A sensitivity analysis was conducted for different mixtures to understand the important reactions at the experimental conditions. Finally, a reaction pathway analysis was carried out to understand important ammonia decomposition pathways in the presence of hydrogen and natural gas.

Baker, Jessica B.↗
DOE OSTI2026

TSEUQLib

TSEUQLib (Taylor Series Expansion Uncertainty Quantification Library): Conduct UQ and sensitivity analysis with the Taylor series expansion surrogate model.

Balcer, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2024

Three-dimensional cooperative inversion of airborne magnetic and gravity gradient data using deep-learning techniques

Using multiple geophysical methods has become a prevailing approach in numerous geophysical applications to investigate subsurface structures and parameters. These multimethod-based exploration strategies have the potential to greatly diminish uncertainties and ambiguities encountered during geophysical data analysis and interpretation. One of the applications is the cooperative inversion of airborne magnetic and gravity gradient data for the interpretation of data obtained in mineral, oil and gas, and geothermal explorations. In this paper, a unified cooperative inversion framework is designed by combining the standard separate inversions with a deep neural network (DNN), which serves as the link between different types of data. A well-trained DNN takes the separately inverted susceptibility and density models as the inputs and provides improved models that will be used as the initial models of deterministic inversions. A two-round iteration strategy is adopted to guarantee the reasonability of the recovered models and overall efficiency of the inversion. In addition, this deep-learning (DL)-based framework demonstrates excellent generalization abilities when tested on models that are entirely distinct from the training data sets. The framework can easily incorporate multiphysics without necessitating any structural changes to the network. Synthetic experiments validate that our DL-based method outperforms conventional separate inversions and cross-gradient-based joint inversion in view of the accuracy of the recovered models and inversion efficiency. Successful application to field data further verifies the effectiveness of our DL-based method.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

UQTk User Manual (V.3.1.0)

The UQ Toolkit (UQTk) is a collection of libraries and tools for the quantification of uncertainty in numerical model predictions. Version 3.1.0 offers intrusive and non-intrusive methods for propagating input uncertainties through computational models, tools for sensitivity analysis, methods for sparse surrogate construction, and Bayesian inference tools for inferring parameters from experimental data. This manual discusses the download and installation process for UQTk, provides pointers to the UQ methods used in the toolkit, and describes some of the examples provided with the toolkit.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Synthesis of Seismic Methods in Southern Kansas (Milestone G)

We proposed to conduct the following activities in Budget Period 2 with respect to Task 2.1 of the overall project management plan: 1) Local SWS using microseismicity catalog. 2) Continuation of VSM analysis. 3) Synthesis of seismic data and uncertainty analyses. Milestone G: Apply ANT, VSM, and SWS methods to Kansas microseismicity catalog. Calculate 3D model and moment tensor elements and meet milestone E.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

UQTk Version 3.1.1 User Manual

The UQ Toolkit (UQTk) is a collection of libraries and tools for the quantification of uncertainty in numerical model predictions. Version 3.1.1 offers intrusive and non-intrusive methods for propagating input uncertainties through computational models, tools for sensitivity analysis, methods for sparse surrogate construction, and Bayesian inference tools for inferring parameters from experimental data. This manual discusses the download and installation process for UQTk, provides pointers to the UQ methods used in the toolkit, and describes some of the examples provided with the toolkit.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

UQTk Version 3.1.2 User Manual

The UQ Toolkit (UQTk) is a collection of libraries and tools for the quantification of uncertainty in numerical model predictions. Version 3.1.2 offers intrusive and non-intrusive methods for propagating input uncertainties through computational models, tools for sensitivity analysis, methods for sparse surrogate construction, and Bayesian inference tools for inferring parameters from experimental data. This manual discusses the download and installation process for UQTk, provides pointers to the UQ methods used in the toolkit, and describes some of the examples provided with the toolkit.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Technical, Economic, and Risk Assessment Tool for the Evaluation of Work Reduction Opportunities

Efficient and cost-effective operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP) is essential to ensuring long-term economical and safe operation. Multiple cost saving opportunities exist, referred to here as work reduction opportunities (WRO). These WROs reduce plant operating costs by employing various cost-effective strategies (e.g., implementation of modern technologies). Identifying and objectively screening WROs is an essential task to help reduce overall costs. However, there is no comprehensive framework for assessing WROs in the nuclear industry and evaluating their impact on plant operations. This report presents a novel framework for systematically evaluating WROs from a technical, economic, and risk perspective. As NPPs continue to add new technology and implement modernization strategies into their current processes, potential WROs are commonly identified. Although most WROs have the potential to reduce costs, not all opportunities will result in significant cost savings due to unforeseen risks, large implementation costs, or benefits that fall short of expectations. Examples of this can be the result of a technology that is not fully developed, uncertainty in the amount of cost reduction, or difficulties introducing a new process into an organization. These uncertainties can manifest several ways and can result in a WRO with limited cost savings or even a loss of investment. The framework developed emphasizes the importance of effectively screening the WROs from a holistic perspective to objectively identify inefficiencies and ensure a positive impact to the organization. This report presents the Technical, Economic, and Risk Assessment (TERA) as a key methodology for the screening and evaluation of potential WROs. The TERA framework begins with a screening phase where the process is examined through a hybrid combination of Lean Six Sigma and Integrated Operations for Nuclear (ION) guiding principles. This framework examines the current processes using the Lean Six Sigma SIPOC (Suppliers, Inputs, Process, Outputs, Consumers) methodology but retains the ION key elements of People, Technology, Process, and Governance as important factors to the nuclear decision-making process. By combining the principles of Lean Six Sigma and ION, the developed screening process is specific to the nuclear industry in that it systematically evaluates WROs in order to implement new technology that is comprehensively evaluated. The TERA begins by mapping current processes as they relate to WROs and examining the inefficiencies. Furthermore, the created process map can be used to identify and evaluate potential solutions. Using key performance indicators (KPIs), the TERA evaluates each area—technology, economics, and risk—for uncertainties and to perform cost-benefit analysis. The results of the TERA are important KPIs that allow for an evaluation of different processes and technology implementations. This assessment enables decision-makers to compare various WROs based on metrics and then make informed decisions for which opportunity to implement first. This research includes not only the creation of the TERA framework, but also the evaluation of its performance. A case study for screening potential WROs at Southern Nuclear Company is presented that utilizes the TERA methodology. Through the use of TERA, various WROs were screened, and the solutions evaluated for cost-benefit expectations. The report concludes by summarizing the overall effort and implications for utility modernization. The performance of the screening and TERA are discussed as well as the impact on the nuclear industry. The TERA process enables utilities to evaluate and inform investment decisions for WROs and mitigate any potential risks. Through this research, we provide utilities with a valuable framework to optimize operations, reduce costs, and drive continuous process improvement.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operation and Maintenance of PV Systems: Data Science, Analysis, and Standards

This effort improves the effectiveness and reduce uncertainty in O&M cost through four primary objectives/tasks: 1) institutionalize standards for reliability and availability reporting for large PV power plants; 2) bridge systemic O&M knowledge gaps around important topics affecting O&M; 3) characterize systemic failure modes and patterns and accelerate O&M experiential learning cycles using field data; and 4) establish a baseline understanding of UPVS O&M cost drivers. Key results of this effort include publication of IEC standards, published topical papers on O&M topics, training, and characterize field data for climate- and service-related patterns (additional details below). Integrating these results serves to reduce performance risk and facilitate improvement in the way solar projects are operated and maintained. Results are well received and two publications are among the most successful SETO publications at NREL ("Model of Operation and Maintenance Costs for Photovoltaic Systems with over 40,000 downloads and "Best Practices in Operation and Maintenance of PV Systems, 3rd Ed." with over 90,000 downloads).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Scientific Case for Concurrent Neutron and X-ray Scattering and Spectroscopy

The interrogation of materials with X-rays or neutrons to determine the structure, energetics, and dynamics of materials is fundamental to advancing materials' physical and chemical science and developing innovative material technologies. A transcending challenge in developing novel materials is that progress hinges on understanding the structure and dynamics across multiple time and length scales in complex materials that feature multiple components, interfaces, and compositions. Despite the ever-growing demands on materials’ characterization, existing approaches are almost exclusively based on isolated X-ray or neutron scattering, i.e., an approach commensurate with the more narrowly defined needs of fifty years ago. A three-day workshop sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) analyzed the demand for concurrent neutron and X-ray (NeX) experiments. It was held at the Spring Hill Suites, San Jose, California, from June 2 to 4, 2022. In this workshop, 70 national and international experts ascertained the crucial need to establish NeX capabilities to advance the science of complex materials and systems in the US. Here, we illustrate the need for NeX scattering and spectroscopy experiments by showcasing examples that span areas as diverse as biomaterials, energy science, soft matter, and nanomaterials. To provide NeX capability will require new instrumentation that enables concurrent experiments. Affected areas include chemistry, soft matter, quantum materials, pure and applied chemistry, bioscience, geoscience, and applied materials. NeX benefits research outcomes due to the complementarity of the two techniques, which is essential for better model refinement. While joint refinement of data from separate neutron and X-ray experiments is critical to avoid ambiguities, especially in multiphase-multicomponent materials, concurrent experiments overcome scientific and technical barriers associated with single measurements, separated by location and, thus, time. Among all the examples, these factors introduce uncertainties in the results that complicate data analysis. [1,2] [3] While models are strongly sample-dependent, the principles of joint refinement are generally applicable to these disciplines, including the development of advanced parameterization, modeling, and analysis techniques that also consider the temporal and spatial resolutions of the two methods, leading to unambiguous data interpretation. Solutions for technical barriers must be found to realize NeX experiments, including developing robust sample environments that meet the optical requirements of neutrons and X-rays.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

OGLE-2018-BLG-1269Lb: A Jovian Planet with a Bright I = 16 Host

We report the discovery of a planet in the microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-1269 with a planet–host mass ratio q ∼ 6 × 10{sup −4}, i.e., 0.6 times smaller than the Jupiter/Sun mass ratio. Combined with the Gaia parallax and proper motion, a strong one-dimensional constraint on the microlens parallax vector allows us to significantly reduce the uncertainties of lens physical parameters. A Bayesian analysis that ignores any information about light from the host yields that the planet is a cold giant (M{sub 2}=0.69{sub −0.22}{sup +0.44} M{sub J}) orbiting a Sun-like star (M{sub 1}=1.13{sub −0.35}{sup +0.72} M{sub ⊙}) at a distance of D{sub L}=2.56{sub −0.62}{sup +0.92} kpc. The projected planet–host separation is a{sub ⊥}=4.61{sub −1.17}{sup +1.70} au. Using Gaia astrometry, we show that the blended light lies ≲12 mas from the host and therefore must be either the host star or a stellar companion to the host. An isochrone analysis favors the former possibility at >99.6%. The host is therefore a subgiant. For host metallicities in the range of 0.0⩽[Fe/H]⩽+0.3, the host and planet masses are then in the range of 1.16⩽M{sub 1}/M{sub ⊙}⩽1.38 and 0.74⩽M{sub 2}/M{sub J}⩽0.89, respectively. Low host metallicities are excluded. The brightness and proximity of the lens make the event a strong candidate for spectroscopic follow-up both to test the microlensing solution and to further characterize the system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Union through UNITY: Cosmology with 2000 SNe Using a Unified Bayesian Framework

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) were instrumental in establishing the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion. By virtue of their combination of distance reach, precision, and prevalence, they continue to provide key cosmological constraints, complementing other cosmological probes. Individual SN surveys cover only over about a factor of 2 in redshift, so compilations of multiple SN data sets are strongly beneficial. We assemble an up-to-date “Union” compilation of 2087 cosmologically useful SNe Ia from 24 data sets (“Union3”). We take care to put all SNe on the same distance scale and update the light-curve fitting with SALT3 to use the full rest-frame optical. Over the next few years, the number of cosmologically useful SNe Ia will increase by more than a factor of 10, and keeping systematic uncertainties subdominant will be more challenging than ever. We discuss the importance of treating outliers, selection effects, light-curve shape/color populations/standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations simultaneously. We present an updated Bayesian framework, called UNITY1.5 (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to model selection effects, standardization, and systematic uncertainties compared to earlier analyses. As an analysis byproduct, we also recover the posterior of the SN-only peculiar-velocity field, although we do not interpret it in this work. We compute updated cosmological constraints with Union3 and UNITY1.5, finding weak 1.7σ–2.6σ tension with flat cold dark matter and possible evidence for thawing dark energy (w0 > − 1, wa < 0). We release our SN distances, light-curve fits, and UNITY1.5 framework to the community.

Rubin, David↗