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NASA/SDIO Space Environmental Effects on Materials Workshop, part 2

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) cosponsored a workshop on Space Environmental Effects on Materials. The joint workshop was designed to inform participants of the present state of knowledge regarding space environmental effects on materials and to identify knowledge gaps that prevent informed decisions on the best use of advanced materials in space for long duration NASA and SDIO missions. Establishing priorities for future ground based and space based materials research was a major goal of the workshop. The end product of the workshop was an assessment of the current state-of-the-art in space environmental effects on materials in order to develop a national plan for spaceflight experiments.

Teichman, Louis A.↗

Computing, Information and Communications Technology (CICT) Website

The Computing, Information and Communications Technology Program (CICT) was established in 2001 to ensure NASA's Continuing leadership in emerging technologies. It is a coordinated, Agency-wide effort to develop and deploy key enabling technologies for a broad range of mission-critical tasks. The NASA CICT program is designed to address Agency-specific computing, information, and communications technology requirements beyond the projected capabilities of commercially available solutions. The areas of technical focus have been chosen for their impact on NASA's missions, their national importance, and the technical challenge they provide to the Program. In order to meet its objectives, the CICT Program is organized into the following four technology focused projects: 1) Computing, Networking and Information Systems (CNIS); 2) Intelligent Systems (IS); 3) Space Communications (SC); 4) Information Technology Strategic Research (ITSR).

Hardman, John↗

Germinating the 2050 Cis-Lunar Econosphere

In early 2013, the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Director and MSFC's Office of Strategic Analysis and Communications (OSAC) chartered a diverse team for a six-week "sprint" to speculate (in a disciplined manner) and paint (with broad brush strokes) a picture of how earth, space, and public/private entities might be operating and relating to each other...in the year 2100. Two 12-person groups of civil servants, one with members having 15 years or less of NASA experience and the other with more senior members, worked independently and then compared and integrated their conclusions. In 2014, the "Space 2100" team, with some new team members and different group boundaries, ran a longer sprint to a) develop more detailed estimates of the operations and economics of space activities in the vicinity of the Earth and Moon in the 2050 time frame, b) identify evolutionary steps and viable paths needed to make that a reality, and c) recommend actions to enable and invigorate those steps. This paper explores Space 2100's first two sprints and their projections of NASA's role in what will likely be a highly networked international space industry and cis-lunar infrastructure.

Scott, David W.↗

Space Launch System Artemis I CubeSats: SmallSat Vanguards of Exploration, Science and Technology

When NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket launches in 2021 with the Orion crew vehicle, it will lay the foundation for NASA’s goal of landing the first woman and the next man on the Moon as part of the Artemis program. This first flight—Artemis I—will also mark a milestone for smallsats. Thirteen6U CubeSats are manifested on the Artemis I flight, the first fleet of CubeSats carried as a ride share opportunity to deep space.(NASA’s first CubeSats to deep space, the twin Mars Cube One [MarCO] spacecraft, were an integral part of the InSight Mars lander mission). The Artemis I CubeSat manifest represents a diverse collection of smallsats performing an array of science missions and technology demonstrations. Payloads from NASA, international partners, academia and industry will execute a variety of experiments. Several smallsats will perform lunar-focused missions that may return data that addresses Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) in the agency’s lunar exploration program. Indeed, the Artemis I CubeSats will be in the vanguard of the agency’s 21st-century lunar program. The Artemis I missions will produce data to support space radiation awareness,crewed landings and in-situ resource utilization, helping to support a sustained human lunar presence. Several of the Artemis I CubeSats are demonstrating new technologies, including propulsion capabilities. Among the Artemis I CubeSats are three selected through NASA’s Cube Quest Challenge, part of the Centennial Challenges program. These three missions will compete for prize money while meeting specific technical development goals. Payloads from the Japanese and Italian space agencies provide an early opportunity for international involvement in the Artemis program. Student involvement in almost half of the payloads allow STEM engagement with NASA’s Artemis program. The SLS Block 1 vehicle for the Artemis I flight is manufactured with several elements delivered to Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and being prepared for stacking and integration. The new-development of the program, the 212-footcore stage with its four RS-25 engines installed is currently at Stennis Space Center (SSC) for “green run” testing. Following the green run test campaign, the stage will ship to KSC, where it will be integrated with the rest of the vehicle, including the upper stage adapter, where the Artemis I smallsats will be housed.

Kimberly F Robinson↗

Mars Small Spacecraft Studies: Overview

NASA’s Mars Exploration Program is studying a potential Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign consisting of a series of missions over the next decade that would return samples collected at Mars for analyses in terrestrial laboratories. It is anticipated that during such a campaign, many in the Mars science community would seek to continue high-priority science investigations in parallel to those provided by geological and astrobiological sample return investigations. To respond to this anticipated desire of the science community, JPL is performing a study of small spacecraft mission concepts to Mars that could bridge the gap between MSR and other desired science investigations at Mars. The goal of the study is to utilize smaller, affordable missions in performing highpriority science investigations as defined in the National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey, Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) goals, and Human Exploration and Operations (HEO) Strategic Knowledge Gaps. The study targets the use of small spacecraft with greater science capability than currently achievable with CubeSats. The target spacecraft wet mass is approximately 100 to 350 kilograms. Methods of access to Mars considered in this study include a self-propelled transit from Earth geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO) to Mars as a secondary payload in a rideshare configuration. The study investigates mission concepts, science objectives, mission designs, concept of operations, enhancing technologies, and mission costs, along with launch vehicle interfaces. The cost estimates of the mission concepts studied range from below $100 million to less than $300 million for development through launch. This paper concludes with an outline of several examples of small spacecraft mission concepts to Mars that demonstrate significant scientific capability, are technically feasible, and fit within the desired cost range.

Edwards, Charles D.↗

Overview of Commercial High-Speed Market Studies and NASA’s Hypersonic Technology Project

Presenting a 40-minute Throughout the history of aviation, there has been a continual desire to develop aircraft that can go higher, faster, and farther. Within each of these broad goals, significant achievements have been made in aeronautics over the decades. Specialized military aircraft can reach the edges of the atmosphere and regularly fly at supersonic speeds, with the Concorde bringing transatlantic supersonic flight to the public. In addition, commercial subsonic aircraft regularly fly nonstop flights of over 7000 nautical miles with flight times lasting over 15 hours. Each of these achievements have been enabled by research and development on the technologies required to overcome these barriers. As major technical challenges for high-speed/hypersonic flight have been overcome, the next questions that arise relate to what precisely is a viable commercial high-speed/hypersonic vehicle and what is the market for it. In 2020, NASA funded two studies to provide an independent assessment of the economic viability of high-speed/hypersonic transportation and some high level guidance on the design requirements of such a vehicle. Results from these market studies will be presented as well as insight into how these results are being used to inform ongoing strategic planning efforts in this research area within NASA’s Hypersonic Technology project.

High-Speed Independent Market Studies↗

Semantic Interoperability to Enable Smart, Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

Achieving a widespread transition to grid-interactive, efficient buildings (GEBs) depends critically on there being sufficient interoperability among connected building systems. While many critical elements already exist at the technical interoperability level (TCP/IP, BACnet, etc.), a lack of interoperability in the semantic level hinders streamlined integration of interdependent applications. Semantics refers to expressing information about “things” in a way that can be consistently understood by applications. Key components of formalized semantics include identifying what a “thing” is (its “type”), defining general information about that “thing” (its characteristics or properties), and defining the appropriate relationships of that “thing” to other “things” (its function or role in a larger system). Although this might seem initially trivial, the success of smart building applications is highly dependent on maintaining consistent notions of the “things” being self-descriptive. Without semantic interoperability, it is technically difficult, labor-intensive, and cost-prohibitive to enable three key objectives of GEBs: optimizing performance, identifying faults, and delivering grid services. Industry, academia, and standards bodies have invested effort in developing information models to facilitate semantic interoperability, however, they have not been widely adopted across the U.S. commercial building portfolio. This paper will present a pathway to drive semantic interoperability through a three-pronged approach to be led by the DOE Building Technologies Office in partnership with NIST and multiple national laboratories comprising: 1) industry engagement and coordination across existing efforts; 2) a semantic interoperability standard that empowers building owners to identify and require interoperable attributes when procuring equipment and applications; 3) tools to assist in implementation and a test framework that can verify compliance of products with semantic interoperability specifications. This strategic approach is designed to accelerate the timeline for adoption of semantic interoperability standards. The intent is to reduce soft costs associated with implementing advanced controls, fault detection and diagnostics, and other smart building technologies as a necessary step in achieving an energy efficient smart grid future.

semantic interoperability, Semantic modeling, inte↗

The Living Universe: NASA and the Development of Astrobiology

In the opening weeks of 1998 a news article in the British journal Nature reported that NASA was about to enter biology in a big way. A "virtual" Astrobiology Institute was gearing up for business, and NASA administrator Dan Goldin told his external advisory council that he would like to see spending on the new institute eventually reach $100 million per year. "You just wait for the screaming from the physical scientists (when that happens)," Goldin was quoted as saying. Nevertheless, by the time of the second Astrobiology Science Conference in 2002, attended by seven hundred scientists from many disciplines, NASA spending on astrobiology had reached nearly half that amount and was growing at a steady pace. Under NASA leadership numerous institutions around the world applied the latest scientific techniques in the service of astrobiology's ambitious goal: the study of what NASA's 1996 Strategic Plan termed the "living universe." This goal embraced nothing less than an understanding of the origin, history, and distribution of life in the universe, including Earth. Astrobiology, conceived as a broad interdisciplinary research program, held the prospect of being the science for the twenty-first century which would unlock the secrets to some of the great questions of humanity. It is no surprise that these age-old questions should continue into the twenty-first century. But that the effort should be spearheaded by NASA was not at all obvious to those - inside and outside the agency - who thought NASA's mission was human spaceflight, rather than science, especially biological science. NASA had, in fact, been involved for four decades in "exobiology," a field that embraced many of the same questions but which had stagnated after the 1976 Viking missions to Mars. In this volume we tell the colorful story of the rise of the discipline of exobiology, how and why it morphed into astrobiology at the end of the twentieth century, and why NASA was the engine for both the discipline's founding and for its transformation.

Dick, Steven J.↗

ATD-2 Benefits Mechanism

NASA has been developing and demonstrating a suite of decision support capabilities for integrated arrival, departure, and surface (IADS) operations in a metroplex environment. The effort is being made in three phases, under NASA’s Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) sub-project, through a close partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), air carriers, airport, and general aviation community. The Phase 1 Baseline IADS capabilities provide enhanced operational efficiency and predictability of flight operations through data exchange and integration, tactical surface metering, and automated coordination of release time of controlled flights for overhead stream insertion. The Phase 2 Fused IADS capabilities include the fusion of strategic and tactical surface metering, Atlanta Center airspace tactical scheduling, Electronic Flight Data (EFD) integration, Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) Terminal Publication (TTP) prototype, and Mobile App for General Aviation (GA) community. In the Phase 2 field evaluation, strategic surface metering provides advance notice of metering and additional stability to the assigned gate holds. The users of the IADS system in Phases 1 and 2 include the personnel at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) air traffic control tower, American Airlines ramp tower, CLT terminal radar approach control (TRACON), and Washington and Atlanta Center. This document describes the ATD-2 benefits mechanism used to assess the Phases 1 and 2 IADS capabilities and field evaluation conducted at CLT since September 2017. The ATD-2 benefits mechanism mainly consists of surface metering and overhead stream insertion. This document provides detailed calculation methods of major benefit metrics, such as fuel savings, gas emissions savings, and engine runtime reduction, which can be obtained through surface metering, gate hold of Approval Request (APREQ) flights prior to pushback, and the renegotiation of release time while taxiing. As of March 31, 2020, it is estimated that 5,075,981 pounds of fuel savings and 15,634,022 pounds of CO2 emission reduction have been achieved so far, with a reduction of 3,832 hours in total engine runtime. The amount of CO2 savings is estimated to be equivalent to planting 116,254 urban trees. The pre- and post-metering comparison results using FAA’s Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data have also shown that the surface metering had no negative impact on the on-time arrival performance of both outbound and inbound flights at CLT.

ATD-2↗

ATD-2 Benefits Mechanism

NASA has been developing and demonstrating a suite of decision support capabilities for integrated arrival, departure, and surface (IADS) operations in a metroplex environment. The effort is being made in three phases, under NASA’s Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) sub-project, through a close partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), air carriers, airport, and general aviation community. The Phase 1 Baseline IADS capabilities provide enhanced operational efficiency and predictability of flight operations through data exchange and integration, tactical surface metering, and automated coordination of release time of controlled flights for overhead stream insertion. The Phase 2 Fused IADS capabilities include the fusion of strategic and tactical surface metering, Atlanta Center airspace tactical scheduling, Electronic Flight Data (EFD) integration, Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) Terminal Publication (TTP) prototype, and Mobile App for General Aviation (GA) community. In the Phase 2 field evaluation, strategic surface metering provides advance notice of metering and additional stability to the assigned gate holds. The users of the IADS system in Phases 1 and 2 include the personnel at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) air traffic control tower, American Airlines ramp tower, CLT terminal radar approach control (TRACON), and Washington and Atlanta Center. This document describes the ATD-2 benefits mechanism used to assess the Phases 1 and 2 IADS capabilities and field evaluation conducted at CLT since September 2017. The ATD-2 benefits mechanism mainly consists of surface metering and overhead stream insertion. This document provides detailed calculation methods of major benefit metrics, such as fuel savings, gas emissions savings, and engine runtime reduction, which can be obtained through surface metering, gate hold of Approval Request (APREQ) flights prior to pushback, and the renegotiation of release time while taxiing. As of April 30, 2020, it is estimated that 5,097,173 pounds of fuel savings and 15,699,292 pounds of CO2 emission reduction have been achieved so far, with a reduction of 3,831 hours in total engine runtime. The amount of CO2 savings is estimated to be equivalent to planting 116,739 urban trees. The pre- and post-metering comparison results using FAA’s Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data have also shown that the surface metering had no negative impact on the on-time arrival performance of both outbound and inbound flights at CLT.

ATD-2↗

The System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in STEReO (SMARt-STEReO)

Wildfire emergency response has remained rooted in relatively low-tech solutions for coordination between ground and aerial assets. These low-tech solutions are robust for the remote environments in which wildfires are usually fought, but limit strategic cross-organizational support and the ability to deploy and effectively utilize aerial assets. As aircraft become more advanced and new technology, including drones, become available to firefighters, a new, more modern method of asset coordination is needed. NASA is working on a project called ‘Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations’ (STEReO) to integrate unmanned aerial systems (UAS)and UAS traffic management (UTM)into wildfire response. STEReO’s goals include simplifying the coordination of aerial assets, improving the existing UAS framework, and increasing the role of additional autonomous systems to reduce human risk and to increase system resilience. This paper describes the development of the ‘System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in STEReO’ (SMARt-STEReO) project, which aims to model wildfire response and to quantify the additional system resilience that STEReO technology provides firefighters. This paper verifies SMARt-STEReO and defines its scope; it includes experimental and statistical analysis of the impact that the addition of UAS has on both performance metrics and also on performance resiliency response to a given fault. SMARt-STEReO is a grid-based model of fire propagation that incorporates varying crew responses. Through the use of a Python package called ‘fmdtools’, the model easily allows for the addition of faults to the system. These faults allow analysts to investigate various response parameters. Factors including terrain, fuel type and wind speed can be modified to affect the fire propagation; additionally, the number of ground crews, engines, fixed wing aircraft, helicopters, and UAS can be changed to affect the crew response. The communication lines between actors mimic those used in real life situations. This paper explains the development of SMARt-STEReO including background research, verification and validation, and preliminary experimental analysis of system resilience to both a minor and major fault in systems with and without UAS.

Resiliency↗

Next Generation Exercise Device (NGED): Advancing Exercise Capabilities for Future Space Missions Through Biomechanical Modeling

BACKGROUND As space exploration extends to long-duration missions on the Moon and Mars, maintaining astronaut health and fitness becomes increasingly critical. The Next Generation Exercise Device (NGED), developed and tested by the HumanWorks Lab in NASA Johnson Space Center's (JSC) Software, Robotics, and Simulation Division, aims to address this challenge through innovative approaches. This study presents the development and evaluation of an NGED system, focusing on its adaptability to various mission scenarios, including prospective use in a Lunar Pressurized Rover (LPR). Central to this project is the application of biomechanical modeling to optimize exercise efficacy and safety in microgravity and partial gravity environments. The project is a collaborative effort with the Human Health and Performance group at Johnson Space Center, ensuring a comprehensive approach to astronaut well-being that integrates biomechanical principles with practical exercise solutions. The NGED represents the next generation of exercise capabilities for missions in space, on the Moon and Mars, with a specific focus on applications such as the LPR. METHODS AND RESULTS Data collection for NGED development was conducted with two motor-driven Beyond Power Voltra I [1] systems and a custom test structure to allow placement of the cable-based devices on the ground, at shoulder height, and overhead. The collection was performed in JSC’s Prototype Immersive Technology (PIT) Lab, utilizing an OptiTrack motion capture system and AMTI force platform, to enable detailed biomechanical analysis via OpenSim [2,3]. Motion capture data were collected for three subjects representing different body types and statures. The marker set used was an enhanced version of the full-body Plug-in Gait marker set [4], with additional markers strategically placed for the primary objective of informing exercise volume requirements. Subjects performed a series of 17 exercises, carefully selected to engage various muscle groups, including novel spaceflight exercises such as skiing (ergometer style), lateral pulldowns, wood chops, triceps extensions, and flies, with load variations ranging from 10 to 90 pounds to maintain kinematic form. This comprehensive approach allowed for a thorough evaluation of the NGED's performance across a wide range of motions and loads. The biomechanical modeling and analysis were conducted using a modified OpenSim Full Body Rajagopal Model [4,5] and also scaled to the maximum and minimum anthropometry provided in NASA-STD-3001 [6]. Volumetric convex hulls were generated based on model marker trajectories and aggregated into geometric assemblies. These can be placed in models of vehicle designs to assess fit to protect for exercise as well as to adapt NGED exercise to fit available space. Preliminary findings from the collection indicate that the NGED prototype demonstrates significant adaptability across varying user anthropometrics and exercise types. The device showed consistent performance in load-bearing exercises, with subjects able to perform exercises effectively while maintaining proper biomechanical form. CONCLUSION NGED represents a forward-looking advancement in exercise capabilities for future space missions. In the future, this system can be used to capture valuable metrics (e.g., isometric mid-thigh pull for force output measurements, assessments of postural muscle strength, overall isometric strength). Its versatility in accommodating various exercises and user physiques, coupled with the ability to provide targeted biomechanical loading, makes it a promising approach for maintaining astronaut health during long-duration missions to the Moon and Mars. Future work will focus on refining the NGED based on initial biomechanical findings, leveraging the detailed insights provided by motion capture and analysis techniques. Particular emphasis will be placed on optimizing its use within the confined spaces of a LPR and other space habitats. This work contributes significantly to NASA's goals of supporting human health and performance in deep space exploration, paving the way for sustainable long-term presence beyond Low Earth Orbit through advanced, biomechanically-informed exercise solutions.

C Wang↗

Demonstrating the data center as a flexible grid asset using a C-HIL setup

Increasing data center demand is outpacing grid infrastructure development. Artificial intelligence workloads and hyperscale cloud growth are creating unprecedented demand for power, while traditional grid expansion faces multiyear development timelines. Verrus is developing an innovative datacenter solution for this challenge, data centers that act as active grid-supportive assets rather than passive loads. Our approach integrates a novel grid-aware power flow management system with battery energy storage systems(BESS) into a microgrid-controlled, medium-voltage power distribution architecture that delivers critical capabilities, such as: * Fast response to grid disturbances such over/ under voltage or over/ under frequency * Demand flexibility that can service requests from the utility within 10 s * Uninterrupted transition to islanded operation during grid outages * Continuous uptime assurance for compute loads while maintaining all customer service level agreements. Through Verrus' strategic partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), these capabilities were validated using NREL's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) virtual emulation environment to model a 70-MW grid-interactive data center. This paper outlines the design, methodology, and results of this emulated deployment, demonstrating that data centers can provide both critical load resilience and ancillary grid support without compromising uptime requirements. Specifically, we present a digital real time simulation of a 70 MW data center integrated with a physical microgrid controller, and demonstrate the data center response in the event of a grid voltage and frequency event, utility demand response request and utility outage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C will rely, in part, on technologies to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are in the early stages of development, and there is limited data to inform predictions of their future adoption. Here, we present an approach to model adoption of early-stage technologies such as CDR and apply it to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Our approach combines empirical data on historical technology analogs and early adoption indicators to model a range of feasible growth pathways. We use these pathways as inputs to an integrated assessment model (the Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM) and evaluate their effects under an emissions policy to limit end-of-century temperature change to 1.5 °C. Adoption varies widely across analogs, which share different strategic similarities with DACCS. If DACCS growth mirrors high-growth analogs (e.g., solar photovoltaics), it can reach up to 4.9 GtCO 2 removal by midcentury, compared to as low as 0.2 GtCO 2 for low-growth analogs (e.g., natural gas pipelines). For these slower growing analogs, unabated fossil fuel generation in 2050 is reduced by 44% compared to high-growth analogs, with implications for energy investments and stranded assets. Residual emissions at the end of the century are also substantially lower (by up to 43% and 34% in transportation and industry) under lower DACCS scenarios. The large variation in growth rates observed for different analogs can also point to policy takeaways for enabling DACCS.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Information logistics: A production-line approach to information services

Logistics can be defined as the process of strategically managing the acquisition, movement, and storage of materials, parts, and finished inventory (and the related information flow) through the organization and its marketing channels in a cost effective manner. It is concerned with delivering the right product to the right customer in the right place at the right time. The logistics function is composed of inventory management, facilities management, communications unitization, transportation, materials management, and production scheduling. The relationship between logistics and information systems is clear. Systems such as Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), Point of Sale (POS) systems, and Just in Time (JIT) inventory management systems are important elements in the management of product development and delivery. With improved access to market demand figures, logisticians can decrease inventory sizes and better service customer demand. However, without accurate, timely information, little, if any, of this would be feasible in today's global markets. Information systems specialists can learn from logisticians. In a manner similar to logistics management, information logistics is concerned with the delivery of the right data, to the ring customer, at the right time. As such, information systems are integral components of the information logistics system charged with providing customers with accurate, timely, cost-effective, and useful information. Information logistics is a management style and is composed of elements similar to those associated with the traditional logistics activity: inventory management (data resource management), facilities management (distributed, centralized and decentralized information systems), communications (participative design and joint application development methodologies), unitization (input/output system design, i.e., packaging or formatting of the information), transportations (voice, data, image, and video communication systems), materials management (data acquisition, e.g., EDI, POS, external data bases, data entry) and production scheduling (job, staff, and project scheduling).

Adams, Dennis↗

Adaptive laser link reconfiguration using constraint propagation

This paper describes Harris AI research performed on the Adaptive Link Reconfiguration (ALR) study for Rome Lab, and focuses on the application of constraint propagation to the problem of link reconfiguration for the proposed space based Strategic Defense System (SDS) Brilliant Pebbles (BP) communications system. According to the concept of operations at the time of the study, laser communications will exist between BP's and to ground entry points. Long-term links typical of RF transmission will not exist. This study addressed an initial implementation of BP's based on the Global Protection Against Limited Strikes (GPALS) SDI mission. The number of satellites and rings studied was representative of this problem. An orbital dynamics program was used to generate line-of-site data for the modeled architecture. This was input into a discrete event simulation implemented in the Harris developed COnstraint Propagation Expert System (COPES) Shell, developed initially on the Rome Lab BM/C3 study. Using a model of the network and several heuristics, the COPES shell was used to develop the Heuristic Adaptive Link Ordering (HALO) Algorithm to rank and order potential laser links according to probability of communication. A reduced set of links based on this ranking would then be used by a routing algorithm to select the next hop. This paper includes an overview of Constraint Propagation as an Artificial Intelligence technique and its embodiment in the COPES shell. It describes the design and implementation of both the simulation of the GPALS BP network and the HALO algorithm in COPES. This is described using a 59 Data Flow Diagram, State Transition Diagrams, and Structured English PDL. It describes a laser communications model and the heuristics involved in rank-ordering the potential communication links. The generation of simulation data is described along with its interface via COPES to the Harris developed View Net graphical tool for visual analysis of communications networks. Conclusions are presented, including a graphical analysis of results depicting the ordered set of links versus the set of all possible links based on the computed Bit Error Rate (BER). Finally, future research is discussed which includes enhancements to the HALO algorithm, network simulation, and the addition of an intelligent routing algorithm for BP.

Crone, M. S.↗

Stochastic Modeling of Airlines' Scheduled Services Revenue

Airlines' revenue generated from scheduled services account for the major share in the total revenue. As such, predicting airlines' total scheduled services revenue is of great importance both to the governments (in case of national airlines) and private airlines. This importance stems from the need to formulate future airline strategic management policies, determine government subsidy levels, and formulate governmental air transportation policies. The prediction of the airlines' total scheduled services revenue is dealt with in this paper. Four key components of airline's scheduled services are considered. These include revenues generated from passenger, cargo, mail, and excess baggage. By addressing the revenue generated from each schedule service separately, air transportation planners and designers are able to enhance their ability to formulate specific strategies for each component. Estimation results clearly indicate that the four stochastic processes (scheduled services components) are represented by different Box-Jenkins ARIMA models. The results demonstrate the appropriateness of the developed models and their ability to provide air transportation planners with future information vital to the planning and design processes.

Hamed, M. M.↗

Stochastic Modeling of Airlines' Scheduled Services Revenue

Airlines' revenue generated from scheduled services account for the major share in the total revenue. As such, predicting airlines' total scheduled services revenue is of great importance both to the governments (in case of national airlines) and private airlines. This importance stems from the need to formulate future airline strategic management policies, determine government subsidy levels, and formulate governmental air transportation policies. The prediction of the airlines' total scheduled services revenue is dealt with in this paper. Four key components of airline's scheduled services are considered. These include revenues generated from passenger, cargo, mail, and excess baggage. By addressing the revenue generated from each schedule service separately, air transportation planners and designers arc able to enhance their ability to formulate specific strategies for each component. Estimation results clearly indicate that the four stochastic processes (scheduled services components) are represented by different Box-Jenkins ARIMA models. The results demonstrate the appropriateness of the developed models and their ability to provide air transportation planners with future information vital to the planning and design processes.

Hamed, M. M.↗