Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,603 records · Page 89
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

STATISTICAL STUDY OF STRONG AND EXTREME GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AND SOLAR CYCLE CHARACTERISTICS

We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show that while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Statistical properties of solar coronal bright points

Here, we aim to study the statistical properties (i.e., spatial, temporal, and magnetic structures) of extreme ultraviolet coronal bright points (CBPs) observed by SDO during a 4.4 yr period (2010 June 1 to 2014 October 31). We developed the automatic detection method for CBPs based on the machine-learning technique and Zernike image moments. The average number and the mean density of CBPs are estimated to be about 572 (per full disk image taken at 193 Å) and 1.9×10{sup −4} Mm{sup −2}, respectively. There is a negative correlation (−0.7) between the number of CBPs and the number of sunspots. The size and lifetime frequency distribution of CBPs show the lognormal and power-law (exponent equal to −1.6) behaviors, respectively. The relationship between the lifetime and size of CBPs is clearly treated by a power-law function with an exponent equal to 0.13. Around 1.3% of the solar surface is covered by the bright cores of CBPs and 2.6% of that is covered by their total area. About 52% of CBPs have lifetimes of less than 20 minutes and the remaining 48% have mean lifetimes of 6 hr. More than 95% of CBPs with lifetimes of less than 20 hr and nine CBPs with lifetimes of more than 72 hr are detected. The average number of the new CBPs emerging every 45 s in the whole of the Sun is about 27 ± 3. The temporal self-affinity of the time series of CBPs that emerged, indexed by the Hurst exponent determined using both detrended fluctuation analysis and R/S analysis, is 0.78. This long-temporal correlation suggests that CBPs form a system of self-organized criticality.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

A STATISTICAL SURVEY OF DYNAMIC PRESSURE PULSES IN THE SOLAR WIND BASED ON WIND OBSERVATIONS

Solar wind dynamic pressure pulse (DPP) structures, across which the dynamic pressure changes abruptly over timescales from a few seconds to several minutes, are often observed in the near-Earth space environment. The space weather effects of DPPs on the magnetosphere–ionosphere coupling system have been widely investigated in the last two decades. In this study, we perform a statistical survey on the properties of DPPs near 1 AU based on nearly 20 years of observations from the WIND spacecraft. It is found that only a tiny fraction of DPPs (around 4.2%) can be regarded as interplanetary shocks. For most DPPs, the total pressure (the sum of the thermal pressure and magnetic pressure) remains in equilibrium, but there also exists a small fraction of DPPs that are not pressure-balanced. The overwhelming majority of DPPs are associated with solar wind disturbances, including coronal mass ejection-related flows, corotating interaction regions, as well as complex ejecta. The annual variations of the averaged occurrence rate of DPPs are roughly in phase with the solar activity during solar cycle 23, and during the rising phase of solar cycle 24.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

The five planets in the Kepler-296 binary system all orbit the primary: A Statistical and analytical analysis

Kepler-296 is a binary star system with two M-dwarf components separated by 0.″2. Five transiting planets have been confirmed to be associated with the Kepler-296 system; given the evidence to date, however, the planets could in principle orbit either star. This ambiguity has made it difficult to constrain both the orbital and physical properties of the planets. Using both statistical and analytical arguments, this paper shows that all five planets are highly likely to orbit the primary star in this system. We performed a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation using a five transiting planet model, leaving the stellar density and dilution with uniform priors. Using importance sampling, we compared the model probabilities under the priors of the planets orbiting either the brighter or the fainter component of the binary. A model where the planets orbit the brighter component, Kepler-296A, is strongly preferred by the data. Combined with our assertion that all five planets orbit the same star, the two outer planets in the system, Kepler-296 Ae and Kepler-296 Af, have radii of 1.53 ± 0.26 and 1.80 ± 0.31 R{sub ⊕}, respectively, and receive incident stellar fluxes of 1.40 ± 0.23 and 0.62 ± 0.10 times the incident flux the Earth receives from the Sun. This level of irradiation places both planets within or close to the circumstellar habitable zone of their parent star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

STATISTICAL COMPARISON BETWEEN PORES AND SUNSPOTS BY USING SDO/HMI

We carried out an extensive statistical study of the properties of pores and sunspots, and investigated the relationship among their physical parameters such as size, intensity, magnetic field, and the line-of-sight (LOS) velocity in the umbrae. For this, we classified 9881 samples into three groups of pores, transitional sunspots, and mature sunspots. As a result, (1) we find that the total magnetic flux inside the umbra of pores, transitional sunspots, and mature sunspots increases proportionally to the powers of the area and the power indices in the three groups significantly differ from each other. (2) The umbral area distribution of each group shows a Gaussian distribution and they are clearly separated, displaying three distinct peak values. All of the quantities significantly overlap among the three groups. (3) The umbral intensity shows a rapid decrease with increasing area, and their magnetic field strength shows a rapid increase with decreasing intensity. (4) The LOS velocity in pores is predominantly redshifted and its magnitude decreases with increasing magnetic field strength. The decreasing trend becomes nearly constant with marginal blueshift in the case of mature sunspots. The dispersion of LOS velocities in mature sunspots is significantly suppressed compared to pores. From our results, we conclude that the three groups have different characteristics in their area, intensity, magnetic field, and LOS velocity as well in their relationships.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

SUPERFLARES ON SOLAR-TYPE STARS OBSERVED WITH KEPLER. I. STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF SUPERFLARES

By extending our previous study by Maehara et al., we searched for superflares on G-type dwarfs (solar-type stars) using Kepler data for a longer period (500 days) than that (120 days) in our previous study. As a result, we found 1547 superflares on 279 G-type dwarfs, which is much more than the previous 365 superflares on 148 stars. Using these new data, we studied the statistical properties of the occurrence rate of superflares, and confirmed the previous results, i.e., the occurrence rate (dN/dE) of superflares versus flare energy (E) shows a power-law distribution with dN/dE∝E {sup –α}, where α ∼ 2. It is interesting that this distribution is roughly similar to that for solar flares. In the case of the Sun-like stars (with surface temperature 5600-6000 K and slowly rotating with a period longer than 10 days), the occurrence rate of superflares with an energy of 10{sup 34}-10{sup 35} erg is once in 800-5000 yr. We also studied long-term (500 days) stellar brightness variation of these superflare stars and found that in some G-type dwarfs the occurrence rate of superflares was extremely high, ∼57 superflares in 500 days (i.e., once in 10 days). In the case of Sun-like stars, the most active stars show a frequency of one superflare (with 10{sup 34} erg) in 100 days. There is evidence that these superflare stars have extremely large starspots with a size about 10 times larger than that of the largest sunspot. We argue that the physical origin of the extremely high occurrence rate of superflares in these stars may be attributed to the existence of extremely large starspots.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Statistical uncertainties of a chiral interaction at next-to-next-to leading order

In this paper, we have quantified the statistical uncertainties of the low-energy coupling-constants (LECs) of an optimized nucleon–nucleon interaction from chiral effective field theory at next-to-next-to-leading order. Finally, in addition, we have propagated the impact of the uncertainties of the LECs to two-nucleon scattering phase shifts, effective range parameters, and deuteron observables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistics of internal stress fluctuations in dislocated crystals and relevance to density-based dislocation dynamics models

A statistical analysis of internal stress fluctuations, defined as the difference between the local mean stress and stress on dislocations, is presented for deforming crystals with 3D discrete dislocation systems. Dislocation realizations are generated using dislocation dynamics simulations and the associated stress field is computed as a superposition of a regularized stress field of dislocation lines within the domain of the solution and a complementary stress field computed via a finite-element boundary value problem. The internal stress fluctuations of interest are defined by an ensemble of the difference between the stress on dislocation lines and the local mean field stress in the crystal. The latter is established in a piecewise fashion over small voxels in the crystal thus allowing the difference between the local average stress and stress on segments to be easily estimated. The results show that the Schmid stress (resolved shear stress) and Escaig stress fluctuations on various slip systems sampled over a random set of points follow a Cauchy (Lorentz) distribution at all strain levels, with the amplitude and width of the distribution being dependent on the strain. Finally, the implications of the Schmid and Escaig internal stress fluctuations are discussed from the points of view of dislocation cross-slip and the dislocation motion in continuum dislocation dynamics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Single Gaussian process method for arbitrary tokamak regimes with a statistical analysis

Abstract Gaussian process regression is a Bayesian method for inferring profiles based on input data. The technique is increasing in popularity in the fusion community due to its many advantages over traditional fitting techniques including intrinsic uncertainty quantification and robustness to over-fitting. This work investigates the use of a new method, the change-point method, for handling the varying length scales found in different tokamak regimes. The use of the Student’s t-distribution for the Bayesian likelihood probability is also investigated and shown to be advantageous in providing good fits in profiles with many outliers. To compare different methods, synthetic data generated from analytic profiles is used to create a database enabling a quantitative statistical comparison of which methods perform the best. Using a full Bayesian approach with the change-point method, Matérn kernel for the prior probability, and Student’s t-distribution for the likelihood is shown to give the best results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Avalanche statistics of fluctuation-induced fluxes from the SLPM and the W7-AS stellarator

Measurements of fluctuating floating potentials and ion saturation currents at different radial locations in the Santander Linear Plasma Machine (Castellanos et al 2005 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion47 2067) and at the edge of the W7-AS stellarator by means of radially movable Langmuir probes allow to infer the corresponding fluctuation-induced radial flux temporal series. Avalanche-like transport events are identified in the time series and statistically characterized in terms of avalanche size/duration/quiet-time distributions and size-duration scaling relations. Transport is diffusive in the inner and intermediate radial region of the SLPM r < r tr ≈ 2.6 cm, undergoing a transition at r tr , becoming non-diffusive in the outermost region of the device, r > r tr . Here, the results obtained at the edge of the W7-AS stellarator are similar to those found in SLPM for r > r tr , i.e. consistent with what would be expected for scale-free, self-similar plasma transport dynamics near a critical state.

Avalanches↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical analysis of the Nb 3 Sn strand production for the ITER toroidal field coils

The ITER toroidal field (TF) strand procurement initiated the largest Nb 3 Sn superconducting strand production hitherto. The industrial-scale production started in Japan in 2008 and finished in summer 2015. Six ITER partners (so-called Domestic Agencies, or DAs) are in charge of the procurement and involved eight different strand suppliers all over the world, of which four are using the bronze route (BR) process and four the internal-tin (IT) process. In total more than 500 tons have been produced including excess material covering losses during the conductor manufacturing process, in particular the cabling. The procurement is based on a functional specification where the main strand requirements like critical current, hysteresis losses, Cu ratio and residual resistance ratio are specified but not the strand production process or layout. We introduce the analysis on the data acquired during the quality control (QC) process that was carried out to ensure the same conductor performance requirements are met by the different strand suppliers regardless of strand design. The strand QC is based on 100% billet testing and on applying statistical process control (SPC) limits. Throughout the production, samples adjacent to the strand pieces tested by the suppliers are cross-checked ('verified') by their respective DAs reference labs. The level of verification was lowered from 100% at the beginning of the procurement progressively to approximately 25% during the final phase of production. Based on the complete dataset of the TF strand production, an analysis of the SPC limits of the critical strand parameters is made and the related process capability indices are calculated. In view of the large-scale production and costs, key manufacturing parameters such as billet yield, number of breakages and piece-length distribution are also discussed. Furthermore, the results are compared among all the strand suppliers, focusing on the difference between BR and IT processes. Following the completion of the largest Nb 3 Sn strand production, our experience gained from monitoring the execution of the QC activities and from auditing the results from the measurements is summarised for future superconducting strand material procurement activities.

Vostner, A.↗
DOE OSTI2017

The structure and statistics of interstellar turbulence

We explore the structure and statistics of multiphase, magnetized ISM turbulence in the local Milky Way by means of driven periodic box numerical MHD simulations. Using the higher order-accurate piecewise-parabolic method on a local stencil (PPML), we carry out a small parameter survey varying the mean magnetic field strength and density while fixing the rms velocity to observed values. We quantify numerous characteristics of the transient and steady-state turbulence, including its thermodynamics and phase structure, kinetic and magnetic energy power spectra, structure functions, and distribution functions of density, column density, pressure, and magnetic field strength. The simulations reproduce many observables of the local ISM, including molecular clouds, such as the ratio of turbulent to mean magnetic field at 100 pc scale, the mass and volume fractions of thermally stable Hi, the lognormal distribution of column densities, the mass-weighted distribution of thermal pressure, and the linewidth-size relationship for molecular clouds. Our models predict the shape of magnetic field probability density functions (PDFs), which are strongly non-Gaussian, and the relative alignment of magnetic field and density structures. Finally, our models show how the observed low rates of star formation per free-fall time are controlled by the multiphase thermodynamics and large-scale turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Estimating statistical isotropy violation in CMB due to non-circular beam and complex scan in minutes

Mild, unavoidable deviations from circular-symmetry of instrumental beams along with scan strategy can give rise to measurable Statistical Isotropy (SI) violation in Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) experiments. If not accounted properly, this spurious signal can complicate the extraction of other SI violation signals (if any) in the data. However, estimation of this effect through exact numerical simulation is computationally intensive and time consuming. A generalized analytical formalism not only provides a quick way of estimating this signal, but also gives a detailed understanding connecting the leading beam anisotropy components to a measurable BipoSH characterisation of SI violation. In this paper, we provide an approximate generic analytical method for estimating the SI violation generated due to a non-circular (NC) beam and arbitrary scan strategy, in terms of the Bipolar Spherical Harmonic (BipoSH) spectra. Our analytical method can predict almost all the features introduced by a NC beam in a complex scan and thus reduces the need for extensive numerical simulation worth tens of thousands of CPU hours into minutes long calculations. As an illustrative example, we use WMAP beams and scanning strategy to demonstrate the easability, usability and efficiency of our method. We test all our analytical results against that from exact numerical simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Probing the statistical properties of CMB B -mode polarization through Minkowski functionals

The detection of the magnetic type B -mode polarization is the main goal of future cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. In the standard model, the B -mode map is a strong non-gaussian field due to the CMB lensing component. Besides the two-point correlation function, the other statistics are also very important to dig the information of the polarization map. In this paper, we employ the Minkowski functionals to study the morphological properties of the lensed B -mode maps. We find that the deviations from Gaussianity are very significant for both full and partial-sky surveys. As an application of the analysis, we investigate the morphological imprints of the foreground residuals in the B -mode map. We find that even for very tiny foreground residuals, the effects on the map can be detected by the Minkowski functional analysis. Therefore, it provides a complementary way to investigate the foreground contaminations in the CMB studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

A model independent safeguard against background mismodeling for statistical inference

We propose a safeguard procedure for statistical inference that provides universal protection against mismodeling of the background. The method quantifies and incorporates the signal-like residuals of the background model into the likelihood function, using information available in a calibration dataset. This prevents possible false discovery claims that may arise through unknown mismodeling, and corrects the bias in limit setting created by overestimated or underestimated background. We demonstrate how the method removes the bias created by an incomplete background model using three realistic case studies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Model-independent astrophysical constraints on leptophilic Dark Matter in the framework of Tsallis statistics

Here, we derive model-independent astrophysical constraints on leptophilic dark matter (DM), considering its thermal production in a supernova core and taking into account core temperature fluctuations within the framework of q-deformed Tsallis statistics. In an effective field theory approach, where the DM fermions interact with the Standard Model via dimension-six operators of either scalar-pseudoscalar, vector-axial vector, or tensor-axial tensor type, we obtain bounds on the effective cut-off scale Λ from supernova cooling and free-streaming of DM from supernova core, and from thermal relic density considerations, depending on the DM mass and the q-deformation parameter. Using Raffelt's criterion on the energy loss rate from SN1987A, we obtain a lower bound on Λ ≳ 3 (12) TeV corresponding to q = 1.0 (1.1) and an average supernova core temperature of 0T SN =3 MeV . From the optical depth criterion on the free-streaming of DM fermions from the outer 10% of the SN1987A core, the cooling bound is restricted to Λ ≳ 1 TeV . Both cooling and free-streaming bounds are insensitive to the DM mass m χ for m χ ≲ T SN , whereas for m χ >> T SN , the bounds weaken significantly due to the Boltzmann-suppression of the DM number density. We also calculate the thermal relic density of the DM particles in this setup and find that it imposes an upper bound on Λ 4 /m χ 2 , which together with the cooling/free-streaming bound significantly constrains light leptophilic DM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 II: sample definitions, characteristics, and two-point clustering statistics

We present the samples of galaxies and quasars used for DESI 2024 cosmological analyses, drawn from the DESI Data Release 1 (DR1). We describe the construction of largescale structure (LSS) catalogs from these samples, which include matched sets of synthetic reference ‘randoms’ and weights that account for variations in the observed density of the samples due to experimental design and varying instrument performance. We detail how we correct for variations in observational completeness, the input ‘target’ densities due to imaging systematics, and the ability to confidently measure redshifts from DESI spectra. We then summarize how remaining uncertainties in the corrections can be translated to systematic uncertainties for particular analyses. We describe the weights added to maximize the signalto-noise of DESI DR1 2-point clustering measurements. We detail measurement pipelines applied to the LSS catalogs that obtain 2-point clustering measurements in configuration and Fourier space. The resulting 2-point measurements depend on window functions and normalization constraints particular to each sample, and we present the corrections required to match models to the data. We compare the configuration- and Fourier-space 2-point clustering of the data samples to that recovered from simulations of DESI DR1 and find they are, generally, in statistical agreement to within 2% in the inferred real-space over-density field. The LSS catalogs, 2-point measurements, and their covariance matrices will be released publicly with DESI DR1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Maxwell–Boltzmann statistics of the quantum ideal gas in the canonical ensemble

Abstract The Maxwell–Boltzmann statistics of the quantum ideal gas is studied through the canonical partition function by exactly counting discrete quantum states without the continuum approximation. Analytic expressions for energy, pressure, entropy, and heat capacity are expressed in terms of Jacobi theta functions and complete elliptic integrals. The results show typical effects of discrete energy levels in the low temperature limit while they reproduce thermodynamics of the classical ideal gas in the high temperature limit.

Mechanics↗