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DOE OSTI2025

Physics Prospects for a near-term Proton-Proton Collider

Hadron colliders at the energy frontier offer significant discovery potential through precise measurements of Standard Model processes and direct searches for new particles and interactions. A future hadron collider would enhance the exploration of particle physics at the electroweak scale and beyond, potentially uniting the community around a common project. The LHC has already demonstrated precision measurement and new physics search capabilities well beyond its original design goals and the HL-LHC will continue to usher in new advancements. This document highlights the physics potential of an FCC-hh machine to directly follow the HL-LHC. In order to reduce the timeline and costs, the physics impact of lower collider energies, down to $\sim 50$~TeV, is evaluated. Lower centre-of-mass energy could leverage advanced magnet technology to reduce both the cost and time to the next hadron collider. Such a machine offers a breadth of physics potential and would make key advancements in Higgs measurements, direct particle production searches, and high-energy tests of Standard Model processes. Most projected results from such a hadron-hadron collider are superior to or competitive with other proposed accelerator projects and this option offers unparalleled physics breadth. The FCC program should lay out a decision-making process that evaluates in detail options for proceeding directly to a hadron collider, including the possibility of reducing energy targets and staging the magnet installation to spread out the cost profile.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

NASA NTRS1994

ASCA measurements of the grain-scattered X-ray halos of eclipsing massive X-ray binaries: Vela X-1 and Centaurus X-3

We have measured the decaying dust-scattered X-ray halo of Cen X-3 during its binary eclipse with the ASCA solid-state imaging spectrometer (SIS). The surface brightness profile (SBP) of the image in the low-energy band (0.5-3 keV) lies substantially above the point-spread function (PSF) of the X-ray telescope, while the SBP in the high-energy band (5-10 keV) exhibits no significant deviation. By contrast, the SBPs of Vela X-1 during its eclipse are consistent with the PSF in both the low- and high-energy bands -- strong evidence that a dust halo is indeed present in Cen X-3. Accordingly, we modeled the SBP of Cen X-3 taken from six consecutive time segments under the principal assumptions that the dust is distributed uniformly along a segment of the line of sight, the grains have a power-law size distribution, and the low-energy source flux was the same function of orbital phase before as during our observation. The best-fit set of parameters included a grain density value of 1.3 g/cu cm, substanially less than the density of 'astronomical silicate.' This result supports the idea that interstellar grains are 'fluffy' aggregates of smaller solid particles. We attribute the failure to detect a halo of Vela X-1 during its eclipse phase to extended strong circumsource absorption that probably occurred before the eclipse and allowed the halo to decay away before the observation began.

Woo, Jonathan W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Numerical simulation of flow and mixing in fracture intersections

Fluid transport through fractured geological formations is strongly influenced by the redistribution of solutes at fracture intersections. In this study, we perform detailed numerical simulations of flow and scalar transport within the intersection of two smooth, planar fractures. The analysis focuses on the mixing ratio, the proportion of solute flux exiting along the outlet branch aligned with the primary inlet flow direction, relative to the total solute flux at the outlets. We systematically investigate how the mixing ratio varies with four key parameters: Peclet number, Reynolds number, flow rate ratio between outlet branches, and fracture intersection angle. Results show that the mixing ratio decreases with increasing Peclet number and outlet flow rate ratio, consistent with reduced diffusive spreading and enhanced streamline routing. While low Reynolds numbers have minimal impact, inertial effects at higher Reynolds numbers significantly increase the mixing ratio. Additionally, acute and obtuse intersection angles alter flow partitioning and modify the solute distribution at the outlets. These findings provide a quantitative basis for incorporating physically realistic mixing behavior—intermediate between complete mixing and streamline-following assumptions—into network-scale transport models. The results have direct relevance to subsurface energy systems, including geothermal energy production, carbon sequestration, and contaminant remediation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Divertor heat flux challenge and mitigation in SPARC

Owing to its high magnetic field, high power, and compact size, the SPARC experiment will operate with divertor conditions at or above those expected in reactor-class tokamaks. Power exhaust at this scale remains one of the key challenges for practical fusion energy. Based on empirical scalings, the peak unmitigated divertor parallel heat flux is projected to be greater than 10 GW m -2 . This is nearly an order of magnitude higher than has been demonstrated to date. Furthermore, the divertor parallel Edge-Localized Mode (ELM) energy fluence projections (~11–34 MJ m -2 ) are comparable with those for ITER. However, the relatively short pulse length (~25 s pulse, with a ~10 s flat top) provides the opportunity to consider mitigation schemes unsuited to long-pulse devices including ITER and reactors. The baseline scenario for SPARC employs a ~1 Hz strike point sweep to spread the heat flux over a large divertor target surface area to keep tile surface temperatures within tolerable levels without the use of active divertor cooling systems. In addition, SPARC operation presents a unique opportunity to study divertor heat exhaust mitigation at reactor-level plasma densities and power fluxes. Not only will SPARC test the limits of current experimental scalings and serve for benchmarking theoretical models in reactor regimes, it is also being designed to enable the assessment of long-legged and X-point target advanced divertor magnetic configurations. Experimental results from SPARC will be crucial to reducing risk for a fusion pilot plant divertor design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

High Performance Adaptive Physics Refinement to Enable Large-Scale Tracking of Cancer Cell Trajectory

The ability to track simulated cancer cells through the circulatory system, important for developing a mechanistic understanding of metastatic spread, pushes the limits of today's supercomputers by requiring the simulation of large fluid volumes at cellular-scale resolution. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a new adaptive physics refinement (APR) method that captures cellular-scale interaction across large domains and leverages a hybrid CPU-GPU approach to maximize performance. Through algorithmic advances that integrate multi-physics and multi-resolution models, we establish a finely resolved window with explicitly modeled cells coupled to a coarsely resolved bulk fluid domain. In this work we present multiple validations of the APR framework by comparing against fully resolved fluid-structure interaction methods and employ techniques, such as latency hiding and maximizing memory bandwidth, to effectively utilize heterogeneous node architectures. Collectively, these computational developments and performance optimizations provide a robust and scalable framework to enable system-level simulations of cancer cell transport.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Effect of Luminance Pattern on Nighttime Discomfort Glare Response (CRADA Final Report)

LED luminaires with apertures containing visually resolvable “bright” (i.e., high luminance) spots are commonly used to illuminate outdoor environments. However, the impact of the distance between LEDs, which determines spatial frequency at a given viewing distance, on perceived discomfort caused by these luminaires remains unclear. This study involved 29 participants who were each shown 68 stimuli varying in spatial frequency, intensity, diffusion level, and ambient lighting in a dark laboratory setting. Participants reported their experiences of discomfort from glare, ability to resolve individual LEDs, and afterimages. The findings revealed that increased spatial frequency heightened both discomfort and the likelihood of experiencing afterimages. It is hypothesized that the point spread function of the eye contributed to these effects, where sources began to be perceived as a single larger source with equal or greater intensity. These results suggest that LED luminaire designs should favor configurations with lower spatial frequencies to minimize discomfort. A simple quantity, direct illuminance at the eye, is recommended for use to predict discomfort from glare because it performed like other more complex models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1988

Saturation and the limit of jet mixing enhancement by single frequency plane wave excitation: Experiment and theory

The limitations of single frequency plane wave excitation in mixing enhancement are investigated for a circular jet. Measurements made in an 8.8 cm diameter jet are compared with a theoretical model. The measurements are made to quantify mixing at excitation amplitudes up to 2 percent of the jet exit velocity. The initial boundary layer state, the exit mean and fluctuating velocity profiles and spectra are documented for all cases considered. The amplitude of the fundamental wave is recorded along the jet axis for various levels of excitation. As the amplitude of excitation is increased the jet spreading rate is increased, but beyond a saturation amplitude further increases have no effect on the spreading. The experimental results are compared with theoretical estimates. In the theory the flow is split into the mean flow, large scale motions, and fine scale turbulence. Shape assumptions for the mean flow, and fine scale turbulence along with the shape for the large scale motions obtained from a linear stability theory provide the closure. The experimental results compare reasonably well with predictions.

Raman, Ganesh↗

NASA NTRS1988

Saturation and the limit of jet mixing enhancement by single frequency plane wave excitation - Experiment and theory

Raman, Ganesh↗

NASA NTRS1988

Dinosaur bone beds and mass mortality: Implications for the K-T extinction

Mass accumulations of fossilized large terrestrial vertebrate skeletons (bone beds: BB) provide a test for K-T catastrophic extinction hypotheses. The two major factors contributing to BB formation are mode of death and sedimentation rate. Catastrophic mass mortality (CMM) is the sudden death of numerous individuals where species, age, health, gender, or social ranking offer no survivorship advantage. Noncatastrophic mass mortality (NCMM) occurs over time and is strongly influenced by species, age, or gender. In addition to cause of death, sedimentation rate is also important in BB formation. Models of BBs can be made. The CMM drops all individuals in their tracks, therefore, the BB should reflect the living population with respect to species, age, or gender. The NCMM results in monospecific BBs skewed in the direction of the less fit, usually the very young or very old, or towards a specific gender. The NCMM and AM BBs may become more similar the more spread out over time NCMM deaths occur because carcasses are widely scattered requiring hydraulic accumulation, and the greater time allows for more disarticulation and weathering. The CMM and NCMM BB appear to be dominated by social animals. Applying this and the characteristics of mortality patterns to the uppermost Cretaceous Hell Creek Formation indicates that only NCMM and AM BB occur. Furthermore, NCMM BB are rare in the upper third of the Hell Creek. Near the K-T boundary, only AM BB are known. The absence of CMM and NCMM BB appears to be real reflecting a decrease in population levels of some dinosaurs prior to the K-T event. The absence of CMM suggests that the K-T event did not lead to an instantaneous extinction of dinosaurs. Nor was there a protracted die-off due to an asteroid impact winter, because no NCMM BB are known at or near the K-T boundary.

Carpenter, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS1990

Managing Information On Costs

Cost Management Model, CMM, software tool for planning, tracking, and reporting costs and information related to costs. Capable of estimating costs, comparing estimated to actual costs, performing "what-if" analyses on estimates of costs, and providing mechanism to maintain data on costs in format oriented to management. Number of supportive cost methods built in: escalation rates, production-learning curves, activity/event schedules, unit production schedules, set of spread distributions, tables of rates and factors defined by user, and full arithmetic capability. Import/export capability possible with 20/20 Spreadsheet available on Data General equipment. Program requires AOS/VS operating system available on Data General MV series computers. Written mainly in FORTRAN 77 but uses SGU (Screen Generation Utility).

Taulbee, Zoe A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Navier-Stokes calculations for 3D gaseous fuel injection with data comparisons

Results from a computational study and experiments designed to further expand the knowledge of gaseous injection into supersonic cross-flows are presented. Experiments performed at Mach 6 included several cases of gaseous helium injection with low transverse angles and injection with low transverse angles coupled with a low yaw angle. Both experimental and computational data confirm that injector yaw has an adverse effect on the helium core decay rate. An array of injectors is found to give higher penetration into the freestream without loss of core injectant decay as compared to a single injector. Lateral diffusion plays a major role in lateral plume spreading, eddy viscosity, injectant plume, and injectant-freestream mixing. Grid refinement makes it possible to capture the gradients in the streamwise direction accurately and to vastly improve the data comparisons. Computational results for a refined grid are found to compare favorably with experimental data on injectant overall and core penetration provided laminar lateral diffusion was taken into account using the modified Baldwin-Lomax turbulence model.

Fuller, E. J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Role of Magnetograms in Testing Models of Coronal Mass Ejections

A general review of current and future magnetographic capabilities is presented with emphasis on how they address observational predictions of CME models (e.g., the model/observation matrix developed in the SHINE 2000 workshop). Existing line-of-sight magnetographs can observe certain structural and kinematic properties of CME source regions when they are on the visible disk. These include polarity configuration, location and structure of the magnetic inversion line, proper motions of magnetic elements, and time variation of flux. Additional chromospheric magnetograms provide information on how the field spreads with height and, if properly sequenced with photospheric magnetograms, can determine whether flux is emerging or submerging. Vector magnetographs can provide information about currents and magnetic shear but will only begin to attain the spatial and temporal coverage appropriate to CMEs with the advent of the SOLIS vector spectromagnetograph and, hopefully, its copies at several widely spaced longitudes. Important additions to the SHINE 2000 matrix are required to define an observational program. These include spatial and temporal resolutions and extents as well as needed sensitivity.

Jones, Harrison P.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Digitally synthesized phased antenna for multibeam global positioning

In a system according to the proposed technique (see figure), the signal received by each element of the array antenna would be subjected to downconversion, and spread-spectrum demodulation and correlation as necessary; this processing would be performed separately from, and simultaneously with, similar processing of signals received by the other antenna elements. For the GPS implementation, following downconversion to baseband, the signals would be digitized, and all subsequent processing would be digital. In the digital process, residual carriers would be removed and each signal would be correlated with a locally generated model pseudo random-noise code, all following normal GPS procedure. As part of this procedure, accumulated values would be added in software and the resulting signals would be phase-shifted in software by the amounts necessary to synthesize the desired antenna directional gain pattern of peaks and nulls. The principal advantage of this technique over the conventional radio-frequency-combining technique is that the parallel digital baseband processing of the signals from the various antenna elements would be a relatively inexpensive and flexible means for exploiting the inherent multiple-peak/multiple-null aiming capability of a phased-array antenna. In the original intended GPS application, the peaks and nulls could be directed independently for each GPS signal being tracked by the GPS receiver. This will improve the SNR simultaneously for each GPS signal being tracked while steering multiple nulls toward sources of interference. The technique could also be applied to other code-division multiple-access communication systems.

Dunn, Charles E.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Oxygen and carbon stable isotope composition of the weathering Mg-carbonates on the surface of the LEW 85320 ordinary chondrite: Revisited

New δ13C and δ18O values were measured to constrain the formation mechanisms of two previously identified generations (Antarctica and Houston) of terrestrial weathering carbonates, nesquehonite, which formed on the surface of the Lewis Cliff 85320 ordinary chondrite. These two nesquehonite generations exhibit a characteristic carbon and oxygen isotopic trend which starts with a linear δ13C-δ18O covariation followed by a continuous increase in δ18O with little to no change in δ13C. Based upon the newly developed nesquehonite-water oxygen isotope thermometry and the measured δ18O value of melted ice from Antarctica, the formation temperature of the Antarctic nesquehonite generation was estimated to be -1.9 ± 3℃. Houston nesquehonite generation was most likely formed from an evaporative residue of the melted Antarctic ice at 30 ± 4℃. Modeling the isotopic trend of the two generations suggests that evaporation created large δ18O variations in the nesquehonite while carbon isotopes were stabilized by exchange between the parent liquid and atmospheric CO2. Thus, we suggest that carbonates formed by terrestrial weathering in Antarctica should possess a widespread in δ18O values and a narrow range in δ13C values under dry and cold conditions. Finally, the observed wide spread of δ18O in Martian carbonates (e.g., Allan Hills 84001 and Nakhla) can be explained by evaporation near 0℃ and may have formed by a similar mechanism to that of the nesquehonite in the LEW 85320. Meanwhile, the wide spread of δ13C suggests that two carbon reservoirs with distinct isotope compositions on Mars (e.g., the atmospheric carbon and magmatic carbon) may be actively participating in the formation process.

weathering↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Premature Mortality By Dust and Pollution PM 2.5 Estimated From Aerosol Reanalysis of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2

This study quantifies global premature deaths attributable to long-term exposure of ambient PM 2.5 , or PM 2.5 -attributable mortality, by dust and pollution sources. We used NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis product for PM 2.5 and the cause-specific relative risk (RR) from the integrated exposure-response (IER) model to estimate global PM2.5-attributable mortality for five causes of deaths, namely ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) or stroke, lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). The estimated yearly global PM 2.5 -attributable mortality in 2019 amounts to 2.89 (1.38–4.48) millions, which is composed of 1.19 (0.73–1.84) million from IHD, 1.01 (0.35–1.55) million from CEV, 0.29 (0.11–0.48) million from COPD, 0.23 (0.14–0.33) million from ALRI, and 0.17 (0.04–0.28) million from LC (the numbers in parentheses represent the estimated mortality range due corresponding to RR spread at the 95% confidence interval). The mortality counts vary with geopolitical regions substantially, with the highest number of deaths occurring in Asia. China and India account for 40% and 23% of the global PM 2.5 -attributable deaths, respectively. In terms of sources of PM 2.5 , about 22% of the global all-cause PM 2.5 -attributable deaths are caused by desert dust. The largest dust attribution is 37% for ALRI. The relative contributions of dust and pollution sources vary with the causes of deaths and geographical regions. Enforcing air pollution regulations to transfer areas from PM 2.5 nonattainment to PM2.5 attainment can have great health benefits. Being attainable with the United States air quality standard (AQS) of 15 μg/m 3 globally would have avoided nearly 40% or 1.2 million premature deaths. The most recent update of PM 2.5 guideline from 10 to 5 μg/m 3 by the World Health Organization (WHO) would potentially save additional one million lives. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing aerodynamic size from geometric size in accurately assessing the global health burden of PM 2.5 and particularly for dust. A use of geometric size in diagnosing dust PM 2.5 from the model simulation, a common approach in current health burden assessment, could overestimate the PM 2.5 level in the dust belt by 40–170%, leading to an overestimate of global all-cause mortality by 1 million or 32%.

PM2.5↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard and Risk Estimates: Insights from RAFT, CHAZ, MIT, STORM, and CLIMADA

We synthesize five complementary tropical cyclone (TC) hazard frameworks—RAFT (physics-based machine learning), CHAZ and MIT (statistical–dynamical), STORM (fully statistical), and CLIMADA (observation-driven resampling)—to characterize uncertainty in wind-related TC metrics relevant to energy applications. All datasets and the IBTrACS observational record are harmonized to a common 6-hourly, 2.5° grid. We compare basin-wide and coastal properties using consistent definitions for TC frequency, mean and maximum intensity, 24-hour intensification, and 6-hour translation speed, and quantify agreement with Pearson r, RMSE, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) alongside resampling-based confidence intervals. CLIMADA is included for basin context but excluded from coastal skill scoring because it resamples historical IBTrACS; if supplied with projected future tracks from an external hazard model, CLIMADA can be used to simulate future TC scenarios. Results show robust, cross-model signals: (i) a corridor of activity from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean into the Bahamas and western subtropical Atlantic; (ii) a meridional dipole in 24-hour intensification (low-latitude strengthening, subtropical weakening); and (iii) a transition from slower tropical motion to faster midlatitude translation. Coastal winds (mean and maximum) consistently cluster from the eastern Gulf into the Bahamas–western Atlantic transition. The largest structural spread occurs in the amplitude and footprint of lifetime maximum intensity and, secondarily, in translation speed; intensification exhibits similar central behavior across frameworks with variability in extremes. Translation speed shows the most uniform coastal agreement. These findings provide a decision envelope for wind-focused risk screening and clarify where uncertainty should be carried forward; wind-only results represent a lower bound on total hazard, motivating integration of surge and rainfall modules and a companion, asset-level damage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1974

Three dimensional flows around airfoils with shocks

The present work describes a mathematical model and numerical scheme for the computer-aided calculation of two- and three-dimensional transonic flow over an isolated yawed wing with oblique shock waves and a trailing vortex sheet. The flow is modeled by the potential equation for irrotational flow which is hyperbolic at supersonic points and elliptic at subsonic points. A coordinate-invariant difference scheme is used in which retarded difference formulas are constructed to conform with the local flow direction. The resulting 'rotated' difference scheme allows complete flexibility in the choice of a coordinate system. Shock waves are located automatically in the form of compression bands spread over a few mesh widths. The scheme has proven to be stable and convergent throughout the transonic range. Calculations have been performed for Mach number up to 1.2 and yaw angles up to 60 deg, the likely operating range of a yawed-wing transport designed to fly at supersonic speeds. Calculations becomes less accurate towards upper end of range, because the difference scheme is first-order accurate in the supersonic range.

Jameson, A.↗