Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “STUDENTS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,603 records · Page 89

ReVise: A Human-AI Interface for Incremental Algorithmic Recourse

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence in socio-technical systems raises concerns about the black-box nature of the resulting decisions in fields such as hiring, finance, admissions, etc. If data subjects—such as job applicants, loan applicants, and students—receive an unfavorable outcome, they may be interested in algorithmic recourse, which involves updating certain features to yield a more favorable result when re-evaluated by algorithmic decision-making. Unfortunately, when individuals do not fully understand the incremental steps needed to change their circumstances, they risk following misguided paths that can lead to significant, long-term adverse consequences. Existing recourse approaches focus exclusively on the final recourse goal but neglect the possible incremental steps to reach the goal with real-life constraints, user preferences, and model artifacts. To address this gap, we formulate a visual analytic workflow for incremental recourse planning in collaboration with AI/ML experts and contribute an interactive visualization interface that helps data subjects efficiently navigate the recourse alternatives and make an informed decision. We also present one of the many usage scenarios, developed during exploratory feedback sessions with twelve graduate students using a real-world dataset, which demonstrates that our approach can be instrumental for data subjects in choosing a suitable recourse path.

algorithmic recourse↗

The ventilation problem in schools: literature review

Based on a review of literature published in refereed archival journals, ventilation rates in classrooms often fall far short of the minimum ventilation rates specified in standards. We report that there is compelling evidence, from both cross-sectional and intervention studies, of an association of increased student performance with increased ventilation rates. There is evidence that reduced respiratory health effects and reduced student absence are associated with increased ventilation rates. Increasing ventilation rates in schools imposes energy costs and can increase heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning system capital costs. The net annual costs, ranging from a few dollars to about 10 dollars per person, are less than 0.1% of typical public spending on elementary and secondary education in the United States. Finally, such expenditures seem like a small price to pay given the evidence of health and performance benefits.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Physical Activity and School Absenteeism Due to Illness in Adolescents

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND Knowledge about the beneficial role of physical activity (PA) for health and school performance is growing. Studies investigating the link between PA and school absenteeism due to illness are lacking. Therefore, we investigated associations between habitual PA and school absenteeism due to illness in adolescents and explored whether mental health and cardiovascular fitness mediated this association. METHODS We studied 328 students in grades 7 and 9 (mean age 13.8 years; 49% boys). The PA was measured objectively by an ActivPAL3™ accelerometer attached on the thigh during 1 full week (24 hours/day). Depressive symptoms and self‐esteem were self‐reported by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES‐D) and Rosenberg Self‐Esteem Scale, respectively, and included as a proxy for mental health in the analyses. Cardiovascular fitness was measured by the 20‐m shuttle‐run test. School absenteeism due to illness data was provided by the school administration. RESULTS The PA was not significantly associated with school absenteeism, though there was an indirect association between PA and school absenteeism by cardiovascular fitness. CONCLUSIONS Cardiovascular fitness mediates the association between PA and school absenteeism due to illness. Thus, cardiovascular fitness of students should be improved to reduce school absenteeism due to illness.

de Groot, Renate↗

Thinking Beyond the Default User: The Impact of Gender, Stereotypes, and Modality on Interpretation of User Needs

Throughout the mechanical design process, designers, the majority of whom are men, often fail to consider the needs of women, resulting in consequences ranging from inconvenience to increased risk of serious injury or death. Although these biases are well studied in other fields of research, the mechanical design field lacks formal investigation into this phenomenon. In this study, engineering students (n = 301) took a survey in which they read a Persona describing a student makerspace user and a Walkthrough describing the user’s interaction with the makerspace while completing a project. During the Walkthrough, the user encountered various obstacles or Pain Points. Participants were asked to recall and evaluate the Pain Points that the user encountered and then evaluated their perceptions of the makerspace and user. Furthermore, the independent variables under investigation were the gender of the user Persona (woman, gender-neutral, or man), the Walkthrough room case (crafting or woodworking makerspace), and the modality of the Persona and Walkthrough (text- or audio-based). Results showed that participants from the Text-based modality were better able to recall Pain Points compared to participants from the Audio-based modality. Pain Points were assessed as more severe when they impacted women users, potentially stemming from protective paternalism. In addition to finding that the gender of a user impacted the way a task environment was perceived, results confirmed the presence of androcentrism, or “default man” assumptions, in the way designers view end users of unknown gender. Promisingly, providing user Persona information in an audio modality significantly reduced this bias compared to text-based modalities, indicating that providing richer detail in user personas has the capability to reduce gender bias in designers.

cognitive-based design↗

Social scientist on board in long-term management of high level and/or long-lived radioactive waste in Belgium

In Belgium, the long-term management of radioactive waste is under the exclusive competence of the Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials (knew as ONDRAF/NIRAS). Unlike low-level waste, no institutional policy has yet been formally approved for the long-term management of high level and/or long-lived radioactive waste (knew as B and C waste). In this context, ONDRAF/NIRAS considers the public and stakeholders' participation as an essential factor in the formulation of an effective and legitimate policy. This is why it has decided to integrate them in different ways during the elaboration of the Waste Plan (ONDRAF/NIRAS-document containing guidelines to make a principled policy decision about nuclear waste management). To do so, social scientists have been regularly mobilized either as external evaluators, follow-up committee members, or participatory observants. Hence, the Waste Plan is only the first step in a long decision-making process. For a PhD student under contract with ONDRAF/NIRAS, this mandate consists of thinking out a way to construct an inter-organizational innovative communication system that would be participative, transparent and embedded in a long-term perspective, thus integrating all the further legal steps to take throughout the decision-making process. In this regard, two paradoxical constraints must be taken into account: on the one hand, my own influence on the legal decision-making process should remain limited, because of a series of constraints, lock-ins and previous decisions which have to be respected; on the other hand, ONDRAF/NIRAS expects the research conclusions to be policy relevant and useful. In this paper, the purpose is twofold. Firstly, the issues raised by this policy mandate is an opportunity to question the per-formative dimensions of the social scientist in the decision-making process and, more specifically, to have a reflexive view on our position as PhD Student. Secondly, assuming the role of 'embarked' social scientist, numerous of answers will discuss to face the different dilemmas of the researcher 'in action'. Those reflections follow on, among others, those from previous papers discussed in Quimper in April 2013 and in Leuven in June 2013. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Automated fibroglandular tissue segmentation and volumetric density estimation in breast MRI using an atlas-aided fuzzy C-means method

Purpose: Breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) plays an important role in the clinical management of breast cancer. Studies suggest that the relative amount of fibroglandular (i.e., dense) tissue in the breast as quantified in MR images can be predictive of the risk for developing breast cancer, especially for high-risk women. Automated segmentation of the fibroglandular tissue and volumetric density estimation in breast MRI could therefore be useful for breast cancer risk assessment. Methods: In this work the authors develop and validate a fully automated segmentation algorithm, namely, an atlas-aided fuzzy C-means (FCM-Atlas) method, to estimate the volumetric amount of fibroglandular tissue in breast MRI. The FCM-Atlas is a 2D segmentation method working on a slice-by-slice basis. FCM clustering is first applied to the intensity space of each 2D MR slice to produce an initial voxelwise likelihood map of fibroglandular tissue. Then a prior learned fibroglandular tissue likelihood atlas is incorporated to refine the initial FCM likelihood map to achieve enhanced segmentation, from which the absolute volume of the fibroglandular tissue (|FGT|) and the relative amount (i.e., percentage) of the |FGT| relative to the whole breast volume (FGT%) are computed. The authors' method is evaluated by a representative dataset of 60 3D bilateral breast MRI scans (120 breasts) that span the full breast density range of the American College of Radiology Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System. The automated segmentation is compared to manual segmentation obtained by two experienced breast imaging radiologists. Segmentation performance is assessed by linear regression, Pearson's correlation coefficients, Student's pairedt-test, and Dice's similarity coefficients (DSC). Results: The inter-reader correlation is 0.97 for FGT% and 0.95 for |FGT|. When compared to the average of the two readers’ manual segmentation, the proposed FCM-Atlas method achieves a correlation ofr = 0.92 for FGT% and r = 0.93 for |FGT|, and the automated segmentation is not statistically significantly different (p = 0.46 for FGT% and p = 0.55 for |FGT|). The bilateral correlation between left breasts and right breasts for the FGT% is 0.94, 0.92, and 0.95 for reader 1, reader 2, and the FCM-Atlas, respectively; likewise, for the |FGT|, it is 0.92, 0.92, and 0.93, respectively. For the spatial segmentation agreement, the automated algorithm achieves a DSC of 0.69 ± 0.1 when compared to reader 1 and 0.61 ± 0.1 for reader 2, respectively, while the DSC between the two readers’ manual segmentation is 0.67 ± 0.15. Additional robustness analysis shows that the segmentation performance of the authors' method is stable both with respect to selecting different cases and to varying the number of cases needed to construct the prior probability atlas. The authors' results also show that the proposed FCM-Atlas method outperforms the commonly used two-cluster FCM-alone method. The authors' method runs at ∼5 min for each 3D bilateral MR scan (56 slices) for computing the FGT% and |FGT|, compared to ∼55 min needed for manual segmentation for the same purpose. Conclusions: The authors' method achieves robust segmentation and can serve as an efficient tool for processing large clinical datasets for quantifying the fibroglandular tissue content in breast MRI. It holds a great potential to support clinical applications in the future including breast cancer risk assessment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

MO-E-17A-05: Individualized Patient Dosimetry in CT Using the Patient Dose (PATDOSE) Algorithm

Purpose: Radiation dose to the patient undergoing a CT examination has been the focus of many recent studies. While CTDIvol and SSDE-based methods are important tools for patient dose management, the CT image data provides important information with respect to CT dose and its distribution. Coupled with the known geometry and output factors (kV, mAs, pitch, etc.) of the CT scanner, the CT dataset can be used directly for computing absorbed dose. Methods: The HU numbers in a patient's CT data set can be converted to linear attenuation coefficients (LACs) with some assumptions. With this (PAT-DOSE) method, which is not Monte Carlo-based, the primary and scatter dose are computed separately. The primary dose is computed directly from the geometry of the scanner, x-ray spectrum, and the known patient LACs. Once the primary dose has been computed to all voxels in the patient, the scatter dose algorithm redistributes a fraction of the absorbed primary dose (based on the HU number of each source voxel), and the methods here invoke both tissue attenuation and absorption and solid angle geometry. The scatter dose algorithm can be run N times to include Nth-scatter redistribution. PAT-DOSE was deployed using simple PMMA phantoms, to validate its performance against Monte Carlo-derived dose distributions. Results: Comparison between PAT-DOSE and MCNPX primary dose distributions showed excellent agreement for several scan lengths. The 1st-scatter dose distributions showed relatively higher-amplitude, long-range scatter tails for the PAT-DOSE algorithm then for MCNPX simulations. Conclusion: The PAT-DOSE algorithm provides a fast, deterministic assessment of the 3-D dose distribution in CT, making use of scanner geometry and the patient image data set. The preliminary implementation of the algorithm produces accurate primary dose distributions however achieving scatter distribution agreement is more challenging. Addressing the polyenergetic x-ray spectrum and spatially dependent scatter fractions will improve algorithm accuracy. Funding Support: UC Davis Clinical and Translational Science Center (CTSC) Award; NIH IMSD Student Fellowship; Saxon Student Fellowship Disclosure: PATENT Royalties from Samsung for dosimetry algorithm.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-P-19: A National Collaborative Academic Medical Physics Network: Structure, Activity and Outcomes

Purpose: A national Australian inter-university medical physics (MP) group was formed in 2011/12, supported by Department of Health Better Access to Radiation Oncology BARO) seed funding. Core membership includes the six universities providing postgraduate MP courses. Objectives include increasing capacity, development and efficiency of national academic MP structures/systems and hence supporting education, clinical training and research, for the MP workforce support. Although the BARO scheme focuses on Radiation Oncology, the group has wider MP interests. Methods: Two further BARO seed grants were achieved: 1) for networked academic activities, including shared-resource teaching, eg using virtual reality systems; MP outreach to schools and undergraduates; developing web-based student and registrar education/resources, etc.; and 2) for conjoint ‘translational research’ posts between universities and partner hospitals, to clinically progress advanced RT technologies and to support students and registrars. Each university received 0.5 FTE post from each grant over 2 years (total: $1.75M) and leveraged local additional partner funds. Results: Total funding: $4–5M. Overall there have been 35 (mainly overseas) postholders bringing specific expertise, beginning in early 2013. Periods in Australia have been from 0.25–2 years (median=1). As well as the education activities, research projects include lung/spine SBRT, 4D RT, FFF beams, technology assessment, complex treatment planning, imaging for radiation oncology, DIR, adaptive breast, datamining, radiomics,etc. Observed positive impacts include: increased interest in MP courses, training support, translational research infrastructure and/or clinical practice in the hospitals involved, plus increased collaboration and effectiveness between the universities. Posts are continuing beyond grant end using leveraged funds, providing the basis for sustainability of some posts. Conclusion: The BARO-funded projects have cost-effectively produced a range of positive impacts on training, research and practice in hospitals and between universities. The evaluation of the specific post roles and activities, and their outcomes, has produced focused recommendations on continuation and sustainability. Funding was from the Australian federal Department of Health; leveraged funding was from partner universities and hospitals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-T-511: Inter-Rater Variability in Classification of Incidents in a New Incident Reporting System

Purpose To determine how consistent the results of different raters are when reviewing the same cases within the Radiation Oncology Incident Learning System (ROILS). Methods Three second-year medical physics graduate students filled out incident reports in spreadsheets set up to mimic ROILS. All students studied the same 33 cases and independently entered their assessments, for a total of 99 reviewed cases. The narratives for these cases were obtained from a published International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) report which included shorter narratives selected from the Radiation Oncology Safety Information System (ROSIS) database. Each category of questions was reviewed to see how consistent the results were by utilizing free-marginal multirater kappa analysis. The percentage of cases where all raters shared full agreement or full disagreement was recorded to show which questions were answered consistently by multiple raters for a given case. The consistency among the raters was analyzed between ICRP and ROSIS cases to see if either group led to more reliable results. Results The categories where all raters agreed 100 percent in their choices were the event type (93.94 percent of cases 0.946 kappa) and the likelihood of the event being harmful to the patient (42.42 percent of cases 0.409 kappa). The categories where all raters disagreed 100 percent in their choices were the dosimetric severity scale (39.39 percent of cases 0.139 kappa) and the potential future toxicity (48.48 percent of cases 0.205 kappa). ROSIS had more cases where all raters disagreed than ICRP (23.06 percent of cases compared to 15.58 percent, respectively). Conclusion Despite reviewing the same cases, the results among the three raters was widespread. ROSIS narratives were shorter than ICRP, which suggests that longer narratives lead to more consistent results. This study shows that the incident reporting system can be optimized to yield more consistent results.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-T-606: Performance of MR-Based 3D FXG Dosimetry for Preclinical Irradiation

Purpose: Technological advances have revolutionized preclinical radiation research to enable precise radiation delivery in preclinical models. Kilovoltage x-rays and complex geometries in preclinical radiation studies challenge conventional dosimetry methods. Previously developed gel-based dosimetry provides a viable means of accommodating complex geometries and accurately reporting dose at kV energies. This paper will describe the development and evaluation of gel-based ferrous xylenol-orange (FXG) dosimetry using a 7T preclinical imaging system. Methods: To confirm water equivalence, Zeff values were calculated for the FXG material, water and ICRU defined soft tissue. Proton T1 relaxivity response in FXG was measured using a preclinical 7T MR and a small animal irradiator for a dose range of 1–22 Gy. FXG was contained in 50 ml centrifuge tubes and irradiated with a 225 kVp x-ray beam at a nominal dose rate of 2.3 Gy/min. Pre and post irradiation maps of the T1 relaxivity were collected using variable TR spin-echo imaging (TE 6.65 ms; TR 500, 750, 1000, 1500, 2000, 3000 and 5000 ms) with 2 mm thick slices, 0.325 mm/pixel, 3 averages and an acquisition time of 26 minutes. A linear fit to the change in relaxation rate (1/T1) for the delivered doses reported the gel sensitivity in units of ms{sup -1}Gy{sup -1}. Irradiation and imaging studies were repeated using three batches of gel over 72 hrs. Results: FXG has a Zeff of 3.8 for the 225 kVp spectrum used; differing from water and ICRU defined soft tissue by 0.5% and 2.5%, respectively. The average sensitivity for the FXG dosimeter was 31.5 ± 0.7 ms{sup -1}Gy{sup -1} (R{sup 2} = 0.9957) with a y-intercept of −29.4 ± 9.0 ms{sup -1}. Conclusion: Preliminary results for the FXG dosimeter properties, sensitivity, and dose linearity at preclinical energies is promising. Future work will explore anatomically relevant tissue inclusions to test MR performance. Student funding provided by The Terry Fox Foundation Strategic Initiative for Excellence in Radiation Research for the 21st Century at CIHR and the Gifford Ontario Student Opportunity Trust Fund.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

SU-F-E-18: Training Monthly QA of Medical Accelerators: Illustrated Instructions for Self-Learning

Purpose: To develop and test clear illustrated instructions for training of monthly mechanical QA of medical linear accelerators. Methods: Illustrated instructions were created for monthly mechanical QA with tolerance tabulated, and underwent several steps of review and refinement. Testers with zero QA experience were then recruited from our radiotherapy department (1 student, 2 computational scientists and 8 dosimetrists). The following parameters were progressively de-calibrated on a Varian C-series linac: Group A = gantry angle, ceiling laser position, X1 jaw position, couch longitudinal position, physical graticule position (5 testers); Group B = Group A + wall laser position, couch lateral and vertical position, collimator angle (3 testers); Group C = Group B + couch angle, wall laser angle, and optical distance indicator (3 testers). Testers were taught how to use the linac, and then used the instructions to try to identify these errors. A physicist observed each session, giving support on machine operation, as necessary. The instructions were further tested with groups of therapists, graduate students and physics residents at multiple institutions. We have also changed the language of the instructions to simulate using the instructions with non-English speakers. Results: Testers were able to follow the instructions. They determined gantry, collimator and couch angle errors within 0.4, 0.3, and 0.9degrees of the actual changed values, respectively. Laser positions were determined within 1mm, and jaw positions within 2mm. Couch position errors were determined within 2 and 3mm for lateral/longitudinal and vertical errors, respectively. Accessory positioning errors were determined within 1mm. ODI errors were determined within 2mm when comparing with distance sticks, and 6mm when using blocks, indicating that distance sticks should be the preferred approach for inexperienced staff. Conclusion: Inexperienced users were able to follow these instructions, and catch errors within the criteria suggested by AAPM TG142 for linacs used for IMRT.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Nature of the Electron

Winston Churchill once said of Russia that it was a riddle wrapped in mystery inside an enigma. Were the British Bulldog a physicist, he might have been talking of something other than our Slavic comrades. He might have been talking about an electron. It might seem weird to think of an electron as mysterious. After all, introductory physics instructors everywhere teach students about charge and current and have them do labs to calculate the particle's charge-to-mass ratio. If the particle is easy enough to understand that you can present it in technical detail to first-year physics students, how mysterious can it be? Of course, you have probably now turned your thoughts to the quantum electron and Schrödinger's equation and whether cats are alive or dead, and perhaps you are beginning to remember that the electron hasn't told us all of its tales. And the story of quantum mechanics is now nearly a century old. Science has moved on and researchers have abandoned the simpler quantum representations of the electron for the more advanced relativistic quantum mechanics and now quantum field theory. Like Salome in Richard Strauss's opera, the electron seems to be doing a dance of seven veils and the dance is not yet over. The electron still has a few secrets to reveal. This article will mostly cover the more modern representations of the electron. A brief reminder of the electron of classical physics and early quantum theories will begin the story, but these will be used simply as a diving board as we plunge into the story of the modern electron. And, as we will see, that story is very deep.

Lincoln, Don↗

Laboratory of N.V. Belov as a school of highly qualified experts

The occasion of Nikolai Vasil'evich Belov's 120th birthday is a good reason for recalling the works of this prominent representative of the pleiad of famous Russian and foreign crystallographers. Not only experts in structural crystallography passed through his school. The number of postgraduates that became candidates of sciences (and some, later, doctors) under the guidance of Belov is amazing. Many of his students organized and headed new laboratories at the Institute of Crystallography and at other institutes. We all remember the original methods proposed by Belov for determining the atomic structure of crystals in periods before and after the time when computers arose. New directions in the study of minerals and the solution of structural problems of crystal chemistry, crystal physics, and materials science continue in the community of crystallographers. They are being actively developed, and not only by Belov's students.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

IPPOG: a global network for particle physics outreach and education

We present the International Particle Physics Outreach Group (IPPOG), a global network dedicated to connecting students, educators, and the general public with the world of particle physics. In this paper, we outline the need to bridge the existing gap between the particle physics community and the wider audience, and we present the solutions that IPPOG has implemented to overcome it through three pillar Activities: the International Masterclasses and the Global Cosmics hands-on activities network, which have engaged together over 200,000 high-school students to date, and the curation of an Outreach Resource Database and web portal.

Abreu, Pedro [University of Lisboa (Portugal); IPP↗

FacultyHack Events: Faculty-Focused Hackathons for High-Performance Computing Curriculum Development

Broadening participation initiatives are important for engaging underrepresented groups in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM). Such initiatives help foster supportive and inclusive work environments that promote creativity and productivity. While there are initiatives that aim to engage students and faculty, opportunities remain to improve faculty support. Hackathons have proved to be a useful approach for student engagement. There are, however, limited insights into whether and how such events would also work for faculty aiming to develop curricula. This paper discusses the design of a faculty-focused hackathon event, FacultyHack, for curriculum development. We outline the logistics and structure for two past FacultyHack events, detail changes between events, and describe potential improvements and lessons learned.

Holmen, John [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000259342641)↗

Semi-analytic model of magnetized liner inertial fusion

The code that was developed is called SAMM (Semi-Analytic MagLIF Model). In 2015, McBride and Slutz published all of the equations that are solved by the code in the original SAMM paper: R. D. McBride and S. A. Slutz, ?A semi-analytic model of magnetized liner inertial fusion?, Phys. Plasmas 22, 052708 (2015); http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4918953. The SAMM code is now implemented in both the MATLAB and Python programming languages. Students from multiple universities have requested copies of the code so that they can become more familiar with the MagLIF concept. We would like to seek an open-source solution. There is no market value to this code, as there are plenty of more sophisticated simulation codes already available; SAMM is merely a simplified model that is purely for educational purposes. In fact, at least one graduate student (from the University of California, San Diego) has already implemented and published his own modified version of the model: J. Narkis, H. U. Rahman, J. C. Valenzuela, F. Conti, R. D. McBride, D. Venosa, and F. N. Beg, ?A semi-analytic model of gas-puff liner-on-target magneto-inertial fusion?, Phys. Plasmas 26, 032708 (2019); https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5086056. SAND2020-12244 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Moore, Thomas↗

NSU Hack-a-Thon Workshop v.2.0

SAND2021-6722 O This is a fitness tracking mobile application and server created to train college-level students to build full stack software. The front end is written using an open-source framework called Flutter. The API server is written using an open-source python framework called Flask. The app functions as a workout tracker and is intentionally partially functional for the purpose of training students during the live workshops hosted by Sandia's HR recruiting teams. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Carpenter, Logan↗

Are 100 Ensemble Members Enough to Capture the Remote Atmospheric Response to +2°C Arctic Sea Ice Loss?

This study presents results from the Polar Amplification Multimodel Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) single-year time-slice experiments that aim to isolate the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss at global warming levels of +2°C. Using two general circulation models (GCMs), the ensemble size is increased up to 300 ensemble members, beyond the recommended 100 members. After partitioning the response in groups of 100 ensemble members, the reproducibility of the results is evaluated, with a focus on the response of the midlatitude jet streams in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Both atmosphere-only and coupled ocean–atmosphere PAMIP experiments are analyzed. Substantial differences in the midlatitude response are found among the different experiment subsets, suggesting that 100-member ensembles are still significantly influenced by internal variability, which can mislead conclusions. Despite an overall stronger response, the coupled ocean–atmosphere runs exhibit greater spread due to additional ENSO-related internal variability when the ocean is interactive. The lack of consistency in the response is true for anomalies that are statistically significant according to Student’s t and false discovery rate tests. This is problematic for the multimodel assessment of the response, as some of the spread may be attributed to different model sensitivities whereas it is due to internal variability. Here, we propose a method to overcome this consistency issue that allows for more robust conclusions when only 100 ensemble members are used.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗