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At least 1,603 records · Page 89
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Duration of super-emitting oil and gas methane sources

The duration of super-emitting events (>100 kg h -1 ) in oil and gas basins remains insufficiently understood but is key for reporting programs and mitigation strategies. Carbon Mapper conducted aerial surveys from April 30 to May 17, 2024, over the New Mexico Permian Basin, covering 276,000 wells, 1100 compressor stations, 175 gas processing plants, and 27,000 km of pipeline. We find over 500 super-emitting sources with 300 of these sources observed repeatedly across multiple days. We quantify total super emissions by integrating individual events with observationally constrained event durations (5.98 −14.7 Gg CH 4 ) and compare to total emissions derived from basin average snapshots (12.7 ± 0.92 Gg CH 4 ). This gap between emission estimates is reconciled through assumptions on missed detections, characteristic event duration, detection frequency, and diurnal variability. Emission events generally lasted for at least 2 hours, and a small subset of sources (18 total), persistently emitted throughout the entire campaign, representing a near-term opportunity for mitigation. When compared to regional flux estimates derived from independent observations, we estimate super-emitters to contribute approximately 50% (37-73%) towards total emissions. Frequent wide-area monitoring is crucial for capturing rare super-emitter events that, together with other emission sources, drive basin-level variability and emission intensity.

Cusworth, Daniel H. [Carbon Mapper, Pasadena, CA (↗
DOE OSTI2021

Specific absorbed fractions for a revised series of the UF/NCI pediatric reference phantoms: internal photon sources

Assessment of radiation absorbed dose to internal organs of the body from the intake of radionuclides, or in the medical setting through the injection of radiopharmaceuticals, is generally performed based upon reference biokinetic models or patient imaging data, respectively. Biokinetic models estimate the time course of activity localized to source organs. The time-integration of these organ activity profiles are then scaled by the radionuclide S-value, which defines the absorbed dose to a target tissue per nuclear transformation in various source tissues. S-values are computed using established nuclear decay information (particle energies and yields), and a parameter termed the specific absorbed fraction (SAF). The SAF is the ratio of the absorbed fraction—fraction of particle energy emitted in the source tissue that is deposited in the target tissue—and the target organ mass. While values of the SAF may be computed using patient-specific or individual-specific anatomic models, they have been more widely available through the use of computational reference phantoms. In this study, we report on an extensive series of photon SAFs computed in a revised series of the University of Florida and the National Cancer Institute pediatric reference phantoms which have been modified to conform to the specifications embodied in the ICRP reference adult phantoms of Publication 110 (e.g. organs modeled, organ ID numbers, blood contribution to elemental compositions). Following phantom anatomical revisions, photon radiation transport simulations were performed using MCNPX v2.7 in each of the ten phantoms of the series—male and female newborn, 1 year old, 5 year old, 10 year old, and 15 year old—for 60 different tissues serving as source and/or target regions. A total of 25 photon energies were considered from 10 keV to 10 MeV along a logarithm energy grid. Detailed analyses were conducted of the relative statistical errors in the Monte Carlo target tissue energy deposition tallies at low photon energies and over all energies for source–target combinations at large intra-organ separation distances. Based on these analyses, various data smoothing algorithms were employed, including multi-point weighted data smoothing, and log–log interpolation at low energies (1 keV and 5 keV) using limiting SAF values based upon target organ mass to bound the interpolation interval. The final dataset is provided in a series of ten electronic supplemental files in MS Excel format. Finally, the results of this study were further used as the basis for assessing the radiative component of internal electron source SAFs as described in our companion paper (Schwarz et al 2021) for this same pediatric phantom series.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Specific absorbed fractions for a revised series of the UF/NCI pediatric reference phantoms: internal electron sources

Assessment of radiation absorbed dose to internal organs of the body from the intake of radionuclides, or in the medical setting through the injection of radiopharmaceuticals, is generally performed based upon reference biokinetic models or patient imaging data, respectively. Biokinetic models estimate the time course of activity localized to source organs. The time-integration of these organ activity profiles are then scaled by the radionuclide S-value, which defines the absorbed dose to a target tissue per nuclear transformation in various source tissues. S-values are computed using established nuclear decay information (particle energies and yields), and a parameter termed the specific absorbed fraction (SAF). The SAF is the ratio of the absorbed fraction—fraction of particle energy emitted in the source tissue that is deposited in the target tissue—and the target organ mass. While values of the SAF may be computed using patient-specific or individual-specific anatomic models, they have been more widely available through the use of computational reference phantoms. In this study, we report on an extensive series of photon SAFs computed in a revised series of the University of Florida and the National Cancer Institute pediatric reference phantoms which have been modified to conform to the specifications embodied in the ICRP reference adult phantoms of Publication 110 (e.g. organs modeled, organ ID numbers, blood contribution to elemental compositions). Following phantom anatomical revisions, photon radiation transport simulations were performed using MCNPX v2.7 in each of the ten phantoms of the series—male and female newborn, 1 year old, 5 year old, 10 year old, and 15 year old—for 60 different tissues serving as source and/or target regions. A total of 25 photon energies were considered from 10 keV to 10 MeV along a logarithm energy grid. Detailed analyses were conducted of the relative statistical errors in the Monte Carlo target tissue energy deposition tallies at low photon energies and over all energies for source–target combinations at large intra-organ separation distances. Based on these analyses, various data smoothing algorithms were employed, including multi-point weighted data smoothing, and log–log interpolation at low energies (1 keV and 5 keV) using limiting SAF values based upon target organ mass to bound the interpolation interval. The final dataset is provided in a series of ten electronic supplemental files in MS Excel format. Finally, the results of this study were further used as the basis for assessing the radiative component of internal electron source SAFs as described in our companion paper (Schwarz et al 2021) for this same pediatric phantom series.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Providing hydrogen maser timing stability to orbiting VLBI radio telescope observations by post-measurement compensation of linked frequency standard imperfections

Orbiting VLBI (OVLBI) astronomical observations are based upon measurements acquired simultaneously from ground-based and earth-orbiting radio telescopes. By the mid-1990s, two orbiting VLBI observatories, Russia's Radioastron and Japan's VSOP, will augment the worldwide VLBI network, providing baselines to earth radio telescopes as large as 80,000 km. The challenge for OVLBI is to effectuate space to ground radio telescope data cross-correlation (the observation) to a level of integrity currently achieved between ground radio telescopes. VLBI radio telescopes require ultrastable frequency and timing references in order that long term observations may be made without serious cross-correlation loss due to frequency source drift and phase noise. For this reason, such instruments make use of hydrogen maser frequency standards. Unfortunately, space-qualified hydrogen maser oscillators are currently not available for use on OVLBI satellites. Thus, the necessary long-term stability needed by the orbiting radio telescope may only be obtained by microwave uplinking a ground-based hydrogen maser derived frequency to the satellite. Although the idea of uplinking the frequency standard intrinsically seems simple, there are many 'contaminations' which degrade both the long and short term stability of the transmitted reference. Factors which corrupt frequency and timing accuracy include additive radio and electronic circuit thermal noise, slow or systematic phase migration due to changes of electronic circuit temporal operating conditions (especially temperature), ionosphere and troposphere induced scintillations, residual Doppler-incited components, and microwave signal multipath propagation. What is important, though, is to realize that ultimate stability does not have to be achieved in real-time. Instead, information needed to produce a high degree of coherence in the subsequent cross-correlation operation may be derived from a two-way coherent radio link, recorded and later introduced as compensations adjunct to the VLBI correlation process. Accordingly, this paper examines the technique for stable frequency/time transfer within the OVLBI system, together with a critique of the types of link degradation components which must be compensated, and the figures of merit known as coherence factors.

Springett, James C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Harmonizing direct and indirect anthropogenic land carbon fluxes indicates a substantial missing sink in the global carbon budget since the early 20th century

Inconsistencies in the calculation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms of the global carbon cycle are investigated. The two terms—the direct anthropogenic flux (caused by direct human disturbance in anthromes, currently a carbon source to the atmosphere) and the indirect anthropogenic flux (caused indirectly by human activities that lead to global change and affecting all biomes, currently an atmospheric carbon sink)—are typically calculated independently, resulting in inconsistent underlying assumptions. We harmonize the estimation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms by incorporating previous estimates of these inconsistencies. We recalculate the global carbon budget (GCB) and apply change-point analysis to the cumulative budget imbalance. Cumulative over 1850–2018 (1959–2018), harmonization results in a 13% lesser (4% greater) land use source from anthromes and a 20% (23%) lesser land sink. This recalculation yields a greater non-closure of the GCB, indicating a missing carbon sink averaging 0.65 Pg C year -1 since the early 20th century. The imbalance likely results from a combination of method discontinuity and structural errors in the assessment of the direct anthropogenic land use flux, greater ocean carbon uptake, structural errors in land models, and in how these land terms are quantified for the budget. We caution against overconfidence in considering the GCB a solved problem and recommend further study of methodological discontinuities in budget terms. We strongly recommend studies that quantify the direct and indirect anthropogenic land fluxes simultaneously to ensure consistency, with a deeper understanding of human disturbance and legacy effects in anthromes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Uncertainties in the Anthropogenic SO 2 Emissions in the USA from the OMI Point Source Catalog

Satellite remote sensing is a promising method of monitoring emissions that may be missing in inventories, but the accuracy of these estimates is often not clear. We demonstrate here a comprehensive evaluation of errors in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission estimates from NASA’s OMI point source catalog for the contiguous US by comparing emissions from the catalog with high-quality emission inventory data over different dimensions including size of individual sources, aggregate vs individual source errors, and potential bias in individual source estimates over time. For sources that are included in the catalog, we find that errors in aggregate (sum of error for all included sources) are relatively low. Errors for individual sources in any given year can be substantial, however, with over- or underestimates in terms of total error ranging from –80 to 110 kt (roughly 10–90th percentile). In this study, we find that these errors are not necessarily random over time and that there can be consistently positive or negative biases for individual sources. We did not find any overall statistical relationship between the degree of isolation of a source and bias, either at a 40 or 70 km scales. For a sub-set of sources where inventory emissions over a radius of 70 km around an OMI detection are larger than twice the emissions within 40 km, the OMI value is consistently overestimated. We find, as expected, that emission sources not included in the catalog are the largest aggregate source of difference between the satellite estimates and inventories, especially in more recent years where source emission magnitudes have been decreasing and note that trends in satellite detections do not necessarily track trends in total emissions. We find that the OMI-based SO 2 emissions are accurate in aggregate, when summed over a number of sources, but must be interpreted more cautiously at the individual source level. Similar analyses would be valuable for other satellite emission estimates; however, in many cases, the appropriate high-quality reference data may need to be generated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust Medium-Voltage Distribution System State Estimation using Multi-Source Data

Due to the lack of sufficient online measurements for distribution system observability, pseudo-measurements from short-term load or distributed renewable energy resources (DERs) forecasting are used. However, the accuracy of them is low and thus significantly limits the performance of distribution system state estimation (DSSE). In this paper, a robust DSSE that integrates multi-source measurement data is proposed. Specifically, the historical low-voltage (LV) side smart meters are used to forecast load and DERs injections via the support vector machine (SVM) with optimally tuned parameters. By contrast, the online smart meters at LV side are utilized to derive equivalent power injections at the MV/LV transformers, yielding more accurate pseudo-measurements compared to the forecasted injections. Furthermore, to deal with bad data caused by communication loss, instrumental errors and cyber attacks, robust DSSE that relies on generalized maximum-likelihood (GM)-estimation criterion is developed. The projection statistics are developed to adjust the weights of each measurement, leading to better balance between pseudo- and real-time measurements. Numerical results conducted on modified IEEE 33-bus system with DG integration demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

distribution system state estimation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiwavelength Observations of 2HWC J1928+177: Dark Accelerator or New TeV Gamma-Ray Binary?

2HWC J1928+177 is a Galactic TeV gamma-ray source detected by the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory up to ~56 TeV. The HAWC source, later confirmed by the High Energy Stereoscopic System, still remains unidentified as a dark accelerator since there is no apparent supernova remnant or pulsar wind nebula detected in the lower-energy bands. The radio pulsar PSR J1928+1746, coinciding with the HAWC source position, has no X-ray counterpart. In this work, our SED modeling shows that inverse Compton scattering in the putative pulsar wind nebula can account for the TeV emission only if the unseen nebula is extended beyond $r\sim 4^{\prime} $. Alternatively, TeV gamma-rays may be produced by hadronic interactions between relativistic protons from an undetected supernova remnant associated with the radio pulsar and a nearby molecular cloud G52.9+0.1. NuSTAR and Chandra observations detected a variable X-ray point source within the HAWC error circle, potentially associated with a bright infrared (IR) source. The X-ray spectra can be fitted with an absorbed power-law model with N H = (9 ± 3) × 10 22 cm –2 and Γ X = 1.6 ± 0.3 and exhibit long-term X-ray flux variability over the last decade. If the X-ray source, possibly associated with the IR source (likely an O star), is the counterpart of the HAWC source, it may be a new TeV gamma-ray binary powered by collisions between the pulsar wind and stellar wind. Follow-up X-ray observations are warranted to search for diffuse X-ray emission and determine the nature of the HAWC source.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1976

Position error propagation in the simplex strapdown navigation system

The results of an analysis of the effects of deterministic error sources on position error in the simplex strapdown navigation system were documented. Improving the long term accuracy of the system was addressed in two phases: understanding and controlling the error within the system, and defining methods of damping the net system error through the use of an external reference velocity or position. Review of the flight and ground data revealed error containing the Schuler frequency as well as non-repeatable trends. The only unbounded terms are those involving gyro bias and azimuth error coupled with velocity. All forms of Schuler-periodic position error were found to be sufficiently large to require update or damping capability unless the source coefficients can be limited to values less than those used in this analysis for misalignment and gyro and accelerometer bias. The first-order effects of the deterministic error sources were determined with a simple error propagator which provided plots of error time functions in response to various source error values.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2021

Response of Stream Metabolism to Coarse Woody Debris Additions Along a Catchment Disturbance Gradient

We evaluated the ecological effectiveness of an in-stream restoration project involving coarse woody debris (CWD) additions to streams along an upland soil and vegetation disturbance gradient at the Fort Benning Military Installation near Columbus, GA. We examined short-term (immediate effectiveness) and longer-term (sustainability) responses to CWD additions by measuring ecosystem metabolism rates in 8 streams quarterly over a 6-year period, including 3 years before (2001–2003) and 3 years after (2004–2006) CWD additions that were made to half of the streams. Ecosystem respiration (ER) rates in most CWD addition streams increased relative to control streams from spring 2004 through autumn 2005, suggesting heterotrophic bacteria were the initial responders to CWD additions. Gross primary production (GPP) rates remained low (typically < 0.3 g O 2 m -2 d -1 ) but increased in some CWD addition streams relative to control streams in spring 2004 and 2005. The magnitude of ER increases in CWD addition streams during the first two years post-addition increased with catchment disturbance intensity, indicating that more heavily disturbed streams responded most strongly to restorations—an important consideration when targeting future restoration locations. Because restorations did not address actual upland disturbance, continued high erosion rates resulted in 32–77% of the added CWD being buried by year two and a corresponding return of GPP and ER rates to pre-CWD addition levels by year three. If restoration projects do not adequately address the source of catchment disturbances, CWD additions will provide only short-term increases in streambed structure and stability, hydrodynamic complexity, and nutrient and organic matter processing and retention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

VLA stereoscopy of solar active regions. 1: Method and tests

We develop a new technique for extracting three-dimensional information from multiday solar Very Large Array (VLA) observations. While standard stereoscopic methods provide a three-dimensional view of an object by combining simultaneous observations from two different aspect angles, we relax the condition of simultaneity and exploit solar rotation to vary the aspect angle. The solar radio images are decomposed into Gaussian source components, which are then cross-correlated in maps from preceding and following days. This provides measurements of the three-dimensional position of correlated source centroids. In this first paper, we describe the stereoscopic method and perform tests with simulated and real radio maps (from the VLA at 20 cm), in order to study the accuracy of altitude measurements, and the limitations introduced by (i) source confusion, (ii) source motion, and (iii) the assumed differential rotation rate. The tests demonstrate that (i) the information content of a VLA map relevant for stereoscopic correlation can be conveniently represented in terms of a small number of Gaussian components; (ii) the fitting of the three-dimensional source position is stable within a numerical accuracy of less than or approximately equal to 0.02 map pixels, (iii) the relative accuracy of the altitude determination is uniform over the solar disk, and (iv) source confusion does not affect the accuracy of stereoscopic position measurements for sources with a signal-to-noise ratio of greater than or approximately equal to 36.

Aschwanden, Markus J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Source Apportionment of Aerosol at a Coastal Site and Relationships with Precipitation Chemistry: A Case Study over the Southeast United States

This study focuses on the long-term aerosol and precipitation chemistry measurements from colocated monitoring sites in Southern Florida between 2013 and 2018. A positive matrix factorization (PMF) model identified six potential emission sources impacting the study area. The PMF model solution yielded the following source concentration profiles: (i) combustion; (ii) fresh sea salt; (iii) aged sea salt; (iv) secondary sulfate; (v) shipping emissions; and (vi) dust. Based on these results, concentration-weighted trajectory maps were developed to identify sources contributing to the PMF factors. Monthly mean precipitation pH values ranged from 4.98 to 5.58, being positively related to crustal species and negatively related to SO42−. Sea salt dominated wet deposition volume-weighted concentrations year-round without much variability in its mass fraction in contrast to stronger seasonal changes in PM2.5 composition where fresh sea salt was far less influential. The highest mean annual deposition fluxes were attributed to Cl−, NO3−, SO42−, and Na+ between April and October. Nitrate is strongly correlated with dust constituents (unlike sea salt) in precipitation samples, indicative of efficient partitioning to dust. Interrelationships between precipitation chemistry and aerosol species based on long-term surface data provide insight into aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions.

positive matrix factorization↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Stochastic Calculus Approach to Boltzmann Transport

Traditional Monte Carlo methods for particle transport utilize source iteration to express the solution, the flux density, of the transport equation as a Neumann series. Our contribution is to show that the particle paths simulated within source iteration are associated with the adjoint flux density and the adjoint particle paths are associated with the flux density. Here, we make our assertion rigorous through the use of stochastic calculus by representing the particle path used in source iteration as a solution to a stochastic differential equation (SDE). The solution to the adjoint Boltzmann equation is then expressed in terms of the same SDE, and the solution to the Boltzmann equation is expressed in terms of the SDE associated with the adjoint particle process. An important consequence is that the particle paths used within source iteration simultaneously provide Monte Carlo samples of the flux density and adjoint flux density in the detector and source regions, respectively. The significant practical implication is that particle trajectories can be reused to obtain both forward and adjoint quantities of interest. To the best our knowledge, the reuse of entire particles paths has not appeared in the literature. Monte Carlo simulations are presented to support the reuse of the particle paths.

Boltzmann transport↗
DOE OSTI2020

Landslide monitoring using seismic refraction tomography – The importance of incorporating topographic variations

Seismic refraction tomography provides images of the elastic properties of subsurface materials in landslide settings. Seismic velocities are sensitive to changes in moisture content, which is a triggering factor in the initiation of many landslides. However, the application of the method to long-term monitoring of landslides is rarely used, given the challenges in undertaking repeat surveys and in handling and minimizing the errors arising from processing time-lapse surveys. This work presents a simple method and workflow for producing a reliable time-series of inverted seismic velocity models. This method is tested using data acquired during a recent, novel, long-term seismic refraction monitoring campaign at an active landslide in the UK. Potential sources of error include those arising from inaccurate and inconsistent determination of first-arrival times, inaccurate receiver positioning, and selection of inappropriate inversion starting models. At our site, a comparative analysis of variations in seismic velocity to real-world variations in topography over time shows that topographic error alone can account for changes in seismic velocity of greater than ±10% in a significant proportion (23%) of the data acquired. The seismic velocity variations arising from real material property changes at the near-surface of the landslide, linked to other sources of environmental data, are demonstrated to be of a similar magnitude. Over the monitoring period we observe subtle variations in the bulk seismic velocity of the sliding layer that are demonstrably related to variations in moisture content. This highlights the need to incorporate accurate topographic information for each time-step in the monitoring time-series. The goal of the proposed workflow is to minimize the sources of potential errors, and to preserve the changes observed by real variations in the subsurface. Following the workflow produces spatially comparable, time-lapse velocity cross-sections formulated from disparate, discretely-acquired datasets. These practical steps aim to aid the use of the seismic refraction tomography method for the long-term monitoring of landslides prone to hydrological destabilization.

Whiteley, J. S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Imprint of Anthropogenic Sources and Soil Removal on the Surface Concentration of H2 in the Contiguous US

Hydrogen (H2) is experiencing renewed interest throughout the world as a low carbon fuel alternative or complement to fossil fuels. Significant uncertainties remain regarding the environmental impact of increasing H2 usage, in part due to gaps in our understanding of the H2 atmospheric budget, including the H2 release from industrial activities and the H2 soil removal, the most important sink of H2. This study focuses on H2 dry air mole fractions measured by the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory in discrete ambient air samples collected every few days at sites located in the contiguous United States between 2010 and 2022. We take advantage of the long-term observations from this network to study the regional distribution of H2 sources using the potential source contribution function (PSCF). We find that H2 PSCF is consistent with a large anthropogenic source of atmospheric H2 from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuel. However, episodic air masses with high H2 dry air mole fractions (>700 ppb) recorded at some sampling locations in the Western and Southeastern US are not associated with elevated CO, suggesting significant noncombustion anthropogenic or geological sources of H2. Air masses depleted in H2 are recorded in rural or remote continental sites. Our analysis of observations from a tall tower in NE Colorado suggests that the degree of H2 depletion not only reflects differences in soil exposure but also the regional inhibition of the soil sink under arid conditions.

Paulot, Fabien↗
DOE OSTI2022

Memory and CPU efficient coherent mode decomposition of partially coherent synchrotron radiation with subtraction of common quadratic phase terms

Application examples of a memory and CPU efficient coherent mode decomposition (CMD) method for wave-optics based simulation of the partially coherent undulator radiation propagation through a hard X-ray beamline in a 3rd generation synchrotron radiation source are presented. The high efficiency of the method is achieved thanks to the analytical treatment of the common quadratic phase terms that are developed in the phase of cross-spectral density (CSD) of partially coherent radiation at a distance from source. This treatment allows for a considerable, several orders of magnitude, reduction of the 4D CSD mesh density (and the memory occupied by the CSD) required for ensuring sufficient accuracies of wavefront propagation simulations with the modes produced by the CMD at a beamline entrance. This method, implemented in the “Synchrotron Radiation Workshop” open-source software, dramatically increases the feasibility of the CMD of 4D CSD for producing 2D coherent modes for a large variety of applications at storage rings and other types of radiation sources.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1979

Survey of ion plating sources

Ion plating is a plasma deposition technique where ions of the gas and the evaporant have a decisive role in the formation of a coating in terms of adherence, coherence, and morphological growth. The range of materials that can be ion plated is predominantly determined by the selection of the evaporation source. Based on the type of evaporation source, gaseous media and mode of transport, the following will be discussed: resistance, electron beam sputtering, reactive and ion beam evaporation. Ionization efficiencies and ion energies in the glow discharge determine the percentage of atoms which are ionized under typical ion plating conditions. The plating flux consists of a small number of energetic ions and a large number of energetic neutrals. The energy distribution ranges from thermal energies up to a maximum energy of the discharge. The various reaction mechanisms which contribute to the exceptionally strong adherence - formation of a graded substrate/coating interface are not fully understood, however the controlling factors are evaluated. The influence of process variables on the nucleation and growth characteristics are illustrated in terms of morphological changes which affect the mechanical and tribological properties of the coating.

Spalvins, T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Long-Short Term Memory Models to Predict Solar Active Regions Emergence

We train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models that predict the formation of active regions (ARs), the main source of eruptive solar activity. Using the Doppler shift velocity, the continuum intensity and the magnetic field full-disk maps from SDO/HMI we have created time-series datasets of acoustic power and magnetic flux which are used to train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models on predicting decreases in continuum intensity 12 hours in advance. Testing of the models' performance was done on data from 5 ARs, unseen from the model during training. The model predicted the emergence of AR11726, AR13165 and AR13179, 10, 29 and 5 hours in advance, and variations of this model achieved average RMSE values of 0.11 for both active and quiet parts of the solar disc, showing the ability of the model to capture acoustic power anomalies and predict continuum intensity variations. This work sets the foundations for the very first ML-aided prediction of solar ARs.

SMD↗