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Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing

Note: This is the final public release version of PNNL-31671 Draft, which was previously released to the sponsor for review. The intent is the public release version will be PNNL-31671. There are no significant changes from the earlier draft version. This unlimited distribution report is the deliverable for M3SF-21PN010202014: Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing. This report summarizes the modeling, analysis, and test plan support completed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the spent nuclear fuel dry storage system seismic test plan through May of 2021. Test plan preparation is planned to continue until the seismic test is completed in July of 2022. This report covers preliminary structural dynamic model development and computer-aided design of test hardware. Based on preliminary modeling, the strongest earthquakes under consideration in this test program provide mechanical loading on the spent nuclear fuel that is comparable to the 30 cm cask drop scenario, although the loads do not appear to be strong enough to cause significant permanent deformation of the fuel assembly spacer grids. The potential for grid deformation during the test will be assessed when the proposed shake table motion becomes available. The weakest earthquakes considered in this test are expected to be comparable to the mechanical loads witnessed in the multimodal transportation test of 2017. The horizontal canister system is predicted to provide nearly-uniform loading condition on the fuel assemblies it contains, while the vertical cask system is predicted to cause non-uniform dynamic loads on the fuel assemblies. In the horizontal case, gravity keeps the fuel assemblies in contact with one basket wall surface unless the loads are strong enough to cause a separation. In the vertical case, the fuel assemblies are relatively long and slender, and seismic motion in the anticipated test range is predicted to cause the assemblies to lean, tilt, and impact the basket walls throughout the seismic event. These gap closures are a nonlinear force transmission condition, so the vertical system is expected to have more variation and variability than the horizontal system. While the horizontal system is expected to have a relatively more linear response than the vertical system, there is still the potential for nonlinear behavior in the horizontal system because the fuel assemblies are free to slide, bounce, and impact the basket walls if the seismic loads are strong enough. One major conclusion of this study is that the use of mixed fuel assemblies in the canister will be acceptable. There are differences in overall system response when the mass, center of gravity, or gaps are changed, but the changes in response are within the bounds of a system that contains completely homogeneous fuel assemblies. One important observation is that the loading for each individual fuel assembly within the vertical canister is expected to be different from that of the others because of nonlinearities in the system. The horizontal canister system is expected to have a more uniform and more predictable response than the vertical canister, making variations in fuel assembly characteristics easier to account for. One important recommendation that comes from this modeling work is to repeat some of the strongest shake tests at different angles, particularly for the vertical cask system. Modeling predicts that strong seismic motion will cause the fuel assemblies to close initial gaps and impact the fuel basket walls when the canister is in the vertical cask configuration. Each shake test will impose a pre-defined three-dimensional time history on the cask system.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

An Incremental Gradient Method for Optimization Problems With Variational Inequality Constraints

We consider minimizing a sum of agent-specific nondifferentiable merely convex functions over the solution set of a variational inequality (VI) problem in that each agent is associated with a local monotone mapping. This problem finds an application in computation of the best equilibrium in nonlinear complementarity problems arising in transportation networks. We develop an iteratively regularized incremental gradient method where at each iteration, agents communicate over a directed cycle graph to update their solution iterates using their local information about the objective and the mapping. The proposed method is single-timescale in the sense that it does not involve any excessive hard-to-project computation per iteration. We derive nonasymptotic agent-wise convergence rates for the suboptimality of the global objective function and infeasibility of the VI constraints measured by a suitably defined dual gap function. Finally, the proposed method appears to be the first fully iterative scheme equipped with iteration complexity that can address distributed optimization problems with VI constraints over cycle graphs.

convergence↗

Handling Qualities Evaluations of Low Complexity Model Reference Adaptive Controllers for Reduced Pitch and Roll Damping Scenarios

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) researchers have conducted a series of flight experiments designed to study the effects of varying levels of adaptive controller complexity on the performance and handling qualities of an aircraft under various simulated failure or damage conditions. A baseline, nonlinear dynamic inversion controller was augmented with three variations of a model reference adaptive control design. The simplest design consisted of a single adaptive parameter in each of the pitch and roll axes computed using a basic gradient-based update law. A second design was built upon the first by increasing the complexity of the update law. The third and most complex design added an additional adaptive parameter to each axis. Flight tests were conducted using NASA s Full-scale Advanced Systems Testbed, a highly modified F-18 aircraft that contains a research flight control system capable of housing advanced flight controls experiments. Each controller was evaluated against a suite of simulated failures and damage ranging from destabilization of the pitch and roll axes to significant coupling between the axes. Two pilots evaluated the three adaptive controllers as well as the non-adaptive baseline controller in a variety of dynamic maneuvers and precision flying tasks designed to uncover potential deficiencies in the handling qualities of the aircraft, and adverse interactions between the pilot and the adaptive controllers. The work was completed as part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control Project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program.

Hanson, Curt↗

A Tchebycheff-based multi-objective combined with a PSO–SQP dynamic real-time optimization framework for cycling energy systems

The aim in this work is to develop an optimization framework to address cycling of baseload energy systems due to the penetration of renewables into the grid. The developed strategy corresponds to a multi-objective and dynamic real-time optimization (MOO-DRTO) framework applied to a postcombustion MEA-based CO 2 capture process from a baseload coal-fired power plant under cycling conditions. A Tchebycheff-based method is used for the multi-objective optimization (MOO) component. Also, a hybrid approach consisting of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) is implemented for the first time in process systems engineering to solve the dynamic real-time optimization (DRTO) component. The objectives considered in the MOO-DRTO framework are economic and environmental. The proposed MOO-DRTO strategy is successfully implemented and 24-h optimal output trajectories for the carbon capture system under cycling are generated. Also, the optimal compromise is chosen from the Pareto front according to a set of selected weights for the objectives with minimal interaction between the framework and decision maker. The results indicated that the developed framework has potential to be extended to plant-wide optimization applications under cycling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Pretest Modeling A Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Shake Test

The U.S. Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is planning to conduct a series of full-scale shake table tests to simulate hypothetical earthquake conditions and record the response of surrogate spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in a dry canister storage system mockup. The shake table motions will represent a range of hypothetical earthquake conditions at hypothetical locations in the continental U.S. to generally define the range of mechanical loads that SNF can be expected to experience during extended dry storage periods. This paper describes the pretest predictions made with LS-DYNA models of the mockup storage systems. The test will use two dry storage system configurations, a mockup vertical concrete cask (VCC) and a mockup horizontal storage module (HSM). The test will use a production-quality canister and basket. Within the canister will be four instrumented fuel assemblies with fuel rods containing surrogate mass and 28 instrumented dummy assemblies that are intended to match the mass and outer dimension of a fuel assembly. The finite element models include models of the VCC and HSM on the shake table to calculate the system level dynamic responses and separate single fuel assembly models to calculate stress and strain in fuel assembly components. Both types of models include nonlinear behavior like rod-to-rod contact and the ability for VCC’s to rock and slide. This paper presents the expected response of the VCC, HSM, and fuel assemblies to the shake table testing that is planned to start in April of 2024. The earthquake conditions represent seismic hazards in the 2,000-to-20,000-year return period range. The test data is expected to confirm the expectation that fuel rod cladding will remain intact, fuel assembly structural components like guide tubes will remain intact, and no significant VCC sliding or tipping will occur in the range of conditions to be tested with the shake table.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

Observations with the ROWS instrument during the Grand Banks calibration/validation experiments

As part of a global program to validate the ocean surface sensors on board ERS-1, a joint experiment on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland was carried out in Nov. 1991. The principal objective was to provide a field validation of ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) measurement of ocean surface structure. The NASA-P3 aircraft measurements made during this experiment provide independent measurements of the ocean surface along the validation swath. The Radar Ocean Wave Spectrometer (ROWS) is a radar sensor designed to measure direction of the long wave components using spectral analysis of the tilt induced radar backscatter modulation. This technique greatly differs from SAR and thus, provides a unique set of measurements for use in evaluating SAR performance. Also, an altimeter channel in the ROWS gives simultaneous information on the surface wave height and radar mean square slope parameter. The sets of geophysical parameters (wind speed, significant wave height, directional spectrum) are used to study the SAR's ability to accurately measure ocean gravity waves. The known distortion imposed on the true directional spectrum by the SAR imaging mechanism is discussed in light of the direct comparisons between ERS-1 SAR, airborne Canadian Center for Remote Sensing (CCRS) SAR, and ROWS spectra and the use of the nonlinear ocean SAR transform.

Vandemark, D.↗

Demonstration of Probabilistic Sensitivity Analyses Tools on the Structural Response of a Representative Inflatable Space Structure

This work provides an initial step toward demonstrating a probabilistic numerical simulation capability to support trade studies and the development of a certification plan for inflatable space habitats. This study concentrates on interpreting the results from probabilistic analysis and numerical simulation tools to identify parameter sensitivities for a novel inflatable airlock concept, specifically the Non‐Axisymmetric Inflatable Pressure Structure (NAIPS) that was designed and tested under NASA's Minimalistic Advanced Softgoods Hatch (MASH) Program. A brief overview of the finite element model is provided along with the probabilistic sensitivity analysis approach. The sensitivity studies required a model that was numerically stable and efficient enough that hundreds of simulations could be completed in the allotted time. Therefore, the existing full model was simplified by: extracting a quarter symmetry section of the dome; focusing on a single inflation pressure; and replacing the non‐linear material stress‐strain curves with linear, isotropic materials defined by elastic moduli. Responses of interest include the sensitivity of various structural component loads to material properties, cord lengths, inflation pressure and friction. Multiple sensitivity studies were completed and three are reported here. The first study focused on utilizing wide input parameter ranges to provide an opportunity to assess numerical robustness. The next two studies narrowed the parameter ranges to enable focus on understanding uncertainty at a fixed operating condition. The completion of the sensitivity studies improved understanding of the interdependence of multiple inputs on the responses. In addition, numerical stability of the simulations over wide parameter ranges, shows the feasibility of incorporating uncertainty‐based methods in the design and certification of inflatable space habitats. With the experience and trust gained, it is anticipated that these same methods will be applied to nonlinear, orthotropic models in the future.

Lyle, Karen H.↗

Development and use of computational techniques in Army Aviation research and development programs for crash resistant helicopter technology

During the 1960's over 30 full-scale aircraft crash tests were conducted by the Flight Safety Foundation under contract to the Aviation Applied Technology Directorate (AATD) of the U.S. Army Aviation Systems Command (AVSCOM). The purpose of these tests were to conduct crash injury investigations that would provide a basis for the formulation of sound crash resistance design criteria for light fixed-wing and rotary wing aircraft. This resulted in the Crash Survival Design Criteria Designer's Guide which was first published in 1967 and has been revised numerous times, the last being in 1989. Full-scale aircraft crash testing is an expensive way to investigate structural deformations of occupied spaces and to determine the decelerative loadings experienced by occupants in a crash. This gave initial impetus to the U.S. Army to develop analytical methods to predict the dynamic response of aircraft structures in a crash. It was believed that such analytical tools could be very useful in the preliminary design stage of a new helicopter system which is required to demonstrate a level of crash resistance and had to be more cost effective than full-scale crash tests or numerous component design support tests. From an economic point of view, it is more efficient to optimize for the incorporation of crash resistance features early in the design stage. However, during preliminary design it is doubtful if sufficient design details, which influence the exact plastic deformation shape of structural elements, will be available. The availability of simple procedures to predict energy absorption and load-deformation characteristics will allow the designer to initiate valuable cost, weight, and geometry tradeoff studies. The development of these procedures will require some testing of typical specimens. This testing should, as a minimum, verify the validity of proposed procedures for providing pertinent nonlinear load-deformation data. It was hoped that through the use of these analytical models, the designer could optimize aircraft design for crash resistance from both a weight and cost increment standpoint, thus enhancing the acceptance of the design criteria for crash resistance.

Burrows, Leroy T.↗

Mixed Integer Programming and Heuristic Scheduling for Space Communication

Optimal planning and scheduling for a communication network was created where the nodes within the network are communicating at the highest possible rates while meeting the mission requirements and operational constraints. The planning and scheduling problem was formulated in the framework of Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) to introduce a special penalty function to convert the MIP problem into a continuous optimization problem, and to solve the constrained optimization problem using heuristic optimization. The communication network consists of space and ground assets with the link dynamics between any two assets varying with respect to time, distance, and telecom configurations. One asset could be communicating with another at very high data rates at one time, and at other times, communication is impossible, as the asset could be inaccessible from the network due to planetary occultation. Based on the network's geometric dynamics and link capabilities, the start time, end time, and link configuration of each view period are selected to maximize the communication efficiency within the network. Mathematical formulations for the constrained mixed integer optimization problem were derived, and efficient analytical and numerical techniques were developed to find the optimal solution. By setting up the problem using MIP, the search space for the optimization problem is reduced significantly, thereby speeding up the solution process. The ratio of the dimension of the traditional method over the proposed formulation is approximately an order N (single) to 2*N (arraying), where N is the number of receiving antennas of a node. By introducing a special penalty function, the MIP problem with non-differentiable cost function and nonlinear constraints can be converted into a continuous variable problem, whose solution is possible.

Lee, Charles H.↗

Approximating Trajectory Constraints With Machine Learning – Microgrid Islanding With Frequency Constraints

Here, we introduce deep earning aided constraint encoding to tackle the frequency-constraint microgrid scheduling problem. The nonlinear function between system operating condition and frequency nadir is approximated by using a neural network, which admits an exact mixed-integer formulation (MIP). This formulation is then integrated with the scheduling problem to encode the frequency constraint. With the stronger representation power of the neural network, the resulting commands can ensure adequate frequency response in a realistic setting in addition to islanding success. The proposed method is validated on a modified 33-node system. Successful islanding with a secure response is simulated under the scheduled commands using a detailed three-phase model in Simulink. The advantages of our model are particularly remarkable when the inertia emulation functions from wind turbine generators are considered.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

MODELING A SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL CASK SEISMIC TEST

The US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is planning to conduct a series of full-scale shake table tests to simulate hypothetical earthquake conditions and record the response of surrogate spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in a canister dry storage system mockup. The shake table motions will represent a range of hypothetical earthquake conditions at hypothetical locations in the continental US to generally define the range of mechanical loads that SNF can be expected to experience during extended dry storage periods. The earthquake conditions will represent seismic hazards in the 2,000-to-20,000-year return period range. The test will use instrumented pressurized water reactor fuel assemblies with surrogate mass inside the fuel rods instead of radioactive fuel pellets. Dummy assemblies with similar mass and dimensions to actual fuel assemblies will occupy the rest of the fuel assembly locations in a SNF canister that holds 32 fuel assemblies. The canister will be located inside a mockup vertical concrete cask. Instrumentation will record the motion of the major components of the complex dynamic system, and strain gauges will be used to record the cladding strain at select locations. Preparations for the test require modeling predictions to identify the range of response of the system and to help select specific earthquake cases to be simulated on the shake table from a large set of potential cases. This paper describes the pretest nonlinear finite element modeling efforts that have been completed to date, including cask system level modeling and fuel assembly modeling in LS-DYNA. The cask system level models are critical for anticipating sliding or tipping of an unanchored cask during the test. The fuel assembly model is needed to estimate the range of cladding strain response and fuel assembly structural response to be expected during the test and cladding strain measurements will be key metrics for model validation and the development of modeling best practices after the test is concluded.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

Modeling the effects of exercise during 100% oxygen prebreathe on the risk of hypobaric decompression sickness

BACKGROUND: Several previous studies indicated that exercise during prebreathe with 100% O2 decreased the incidence of hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS). We report a meta-analysis of these investigations combined with a new study in our laboratory to develop a statistical model as a predictive tool for DCS. HYPOTHESIS: Exercise during prebreathe increases N2 elimination in a theoretical 360-min half-time compartment decreasing the incidence of DCS. METHODS: A dose-response probability tissue ratio (TR) model with 95% confidence limits was created for two groups, prebreathe with exercise (n = 113) and resting prebreathe (n = 113), using nonlinear regression analysis with maximum likelihood optimization. RESULTS: The model predicted that prebreathe exercise would reduce the residual N2 in a 360-min half-time compartment to a level analogous to that in a 180-min compartment. This finding supported the hypothesis. The incidence of DCS for the exercise prebreathe group was significantly decreased (Chi-Square = 17.1, p < 0.0001) from the resting prebreathe group. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggested that exercise during prebreathe increases tissue perfusion and N2 elimination approximately 2-fold and markedly lowers the risk of DCS. Based on the model, the prebreathe duration may be reduced from 240 min to a predicted 91 min for the protocol in our study, but this remains to be verified. The model provides a useful planning tool to develop and test appropriate prebreathe exercise protocols and to predict DCS risks for astronauts.

NASA Program Environmental Health↗

Respiration rate in maize roots is related to concentration of reduced nitrogen and proliferation of lateral roots

The relationship between specific rate of respiration (respiration rate per unit root dry weight) and concentration of reduced nitrogen was examined for maize (Zea mays L.) roots. Plants with 2 primary nodal root axes were grown for 8 days in a split-root hydroponic system in which NO3- was supplied to both axes at 1.0 mol m-3, to one axis at 1.0 mol m-3 and the other axis at 0.0 mol m-3, or to both axes at 0.0 mol m-3. Respiration rates and root characteristics were measured at 2-day intervals. Specific rate of respiration was positively correlated in a nonlinear relationship with concentration of reduced nitrogen. The lowest specific rates of respiration occurred when neither axis received exogenous NO3- and the concentration of reduced nitrogen in the axes was less than 9 mg g-1. The greatest rates occurred in axes that were actively absorbing NO3- and contained more than 35 mg g-1 of reduced nitrogen. At 23 mg g-1 of reduced nitrogen, below which initiation of lateral branches was decreased by 30-50%, specific rate of respiration was 17% greater for roots actively absorbing NO3- than for roots not absorbing NO3-. Increases in specific rate of respiration associated with concentrations of reduced nitrogen greater than 23 mg g-1 were concluded to be attributable primarily to proliferation of lateral branches.

Non-NASA Center↗

The Development of Two Composite Energy Absorbers for Use in a Transport Rotorcraft Airframe Crash Testbed (TRACT 2) Full-Scale Crash Test

Two composite energy absorbers were developed and evaluated at NASA Langley Research Center through multi-level testing and simulation performed under the Transport Rotorcraft Airframe Crash Testbed (TRACT) research program. A conical-shaped energy absorber, designated the conusoid, was evaluated that consisted of four layers of hybrid carbon-Kevlar plain weave fabric oriented at [+45deg/-45deg/-45deg/+45deg] with respect to the vertical direction. A sinusoidal-shaped energy absorber, designated the sinusoid, was developed that consisted of hybrid carbon-Kevlar plain weave fabric face sheets, two layers for each face sheet oriented at +/-45deg with respect to the vertical direction, and a closed-cell ELFOAM P200 polyisocyanurate (2.0-lb/cu ft) foam core. The design goal for the energy absorbers was to achieve average floor-level accelerations of between 25- and 40-g during the full-scale crash test of a retrofitted CH-46E helicopter airframe, designated TRACT 2. Variations in both designs were assessed through dynamic crush testing of component specimens. Once the designs were finalized, subfloor beams of each configuration were fabricated and retrofitted into a barrel section of a CH-46E helicopter. A vertical drop test of the barrel section was conducted onto concrete to evaluate the performance of the energy absorbers prior to retrofit into TRACT 2. The retrofitted airframe was crash tested under combined forward and vertical velocity conditions onto soft soil. Finite element models were developed of all test articles and simulations were performed using LS-DYNA, a commercial nonlinear explicit transient dynamic finite element code. Test-analysis results are presented for each energy absorber as comparisons of time-history responses, as well as predicted and experimental structural deformations and progressive damage under impact loading for each evaluation level.

Littell, Justin D.↗

Novel, Middle and Long Wave Infrared Laser Sources For Accelerator Applications

The main accomplishment during Years 2020-2024 of the DOE Accelerator Stewardship Program is proof-of-principle demonstration of amplification of an ultrashort 10 µm seed pulse in a multiatmosphere CO 2 laser optically pumped by nanosecond pulses of either a ~4.3 µm Fe:ZnSe laser or a 2.8 µm electro-optically (EO) Q-switched Er: Laser. This has been accomplished at the UCLA Neptune Laboratory by using about 100 mJ, ~100 ns long pulses generated by the pump laser built for this purpose by the UAB team. Implementation of EO Q-switching regime in the solid-state Er:laser system made possible nanosecond synchronization between the pump pulse and the 0.5 ps seed pulse produced by a commercial Ti:sapphire laser based mid-IR OPA/DFG. The injection mode-locking regime realized in a compact Mult atmosphere 3 Hz CO 2 -He regenerative amplifier enabled generation of a train of ultrashort pulses separated by the cavity round-trip time of ~3.2 ns. The measured gain lifetime of ~1 µs at a total pressure of ~12-15 atm indicates that lifetime of the upper laser level is a critical limiting factor in designing high-pressure CO 2 amplifiers. A single picosecond 10 mm pulse with an energy 0.1-0.2 mJ was extracted from the amplifier’s cavity using an ultrafast Ge semiconductor switch whose reflectivity was photo-induced by a femtosecond 800 nm pulse. For direct amplification regime, nonlinear absorption in Ge at 10 mm at GW/cm 2 intensities limited the extracted energy. Therefore, the generated energy could be further increased by minimizing losses in the switch and optimizing the cavity mode size. Based on the obtained data in collaboration with BNL colleagues, we have designed a high-pressure CO 2 amplifier to be used as a preamplifier for the future experiments at the ATF BNL. The latter work is the subject of funding availability.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Multi-Level Experimental and Analytical Evaluation of Two Composite Energy Absorbers

Two composite energy absorbers were developed and evaluated at NASA Langley Research Center through multi-level testing and simulation performed under the Transport Rotorcraft Airframe Crash Testbed (TRACT) research program. A conical-shaped energy absorber, designated the conusoid, was evaluated that consisted of four layers of hybrid carbon-Kevlar plain weave fabric oriented at [+45 deg/-45 deg/-45 deg/+45 deg] with respect to the vertical, or crush, direction. A sinusoidal-shaped energy absorber, designated the sinusoid, was developed that consisted of hybrid carbon-Kevlar plain weave fabric face sheets, two layers for each face sheet oriented at +/-45deg with respect to the vertical direction and a closed-cell ELFOAM P200 polyisocyanurate (2.0-lb/cu ft) foam core. The design goal for the energy absorbers was to achieve average floor-level accelerations of between 25- and 40-g during the full-scale crash test of a retrofitted CH-46E helicopter airframe, designated TRACT 2. Variations in both designs were assessed through dynamic crush testing of component specimens. Once the designs were finalized, subfloor beams of each configuration were fabricated and retrofitted into a barrel section of a CH-46E helicopter. A vertical drop test of the barrel section was conducted onto concrete to evaluate the performance of the energy absorbers prior to retrofit into TRACT 2. The retrofitted airframe was crash tested under combined forward and vertical velocity conditions onto soil, which is characterized as a sand/clay mixture. Finite element models were developed of all test articles and simulations were performed using LS-DYNA, a commercial nonlinear explicit transient dynamic finite element code. Test-analysis results are presented for each energy absorber as comparisons of time-history responses, as well as predicted and experimental structural deformations and progressive damage under impact loading for each evaluation level.

Jackson, Karen E.↗

Development of a Numerical Model of Hypervelocity Impact into a Pressurized Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel

As the outlook for space exploration becomes more ambitious and spacecraft travel deeper into space than ever before, it is increasingly important that propulsion systems perform reliably within the space environment. The increased reliability compels designers to increase design margin at the expense of system mass, which contrasts with the need to limit vehicle mass to maximize payload. Such are the factors that motivate the integration of high specific strength composite materials in the construction of pressure vessels commonly referred to as composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPV). The COPV consists of a metallic liner for the inner shell of the COPV that is stiff, negates fluid permeation and serves as the anchor for composite laminates or filaments, but the liner itself cannot contain the stresses from the pressurant it contains. The compo-site-fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) is wound around the liner using a combination of hoop (circumferential) and helical orientations. Careful consideration of wrap orientation allows the composite to evenly bear structural loading and creates the COPV's characteristic high strength to weight ratio. As the CFRP overwrap carries most of the stresses induced by pressurization, damage to the overwrap can affect mission duration, mission success and potentially cause loss-of-vehicle/loss-of-crew. For this reason, it is critical to establish a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms involved in the failure of a stressed composite such as that of the COPV. One of the greatest external threats to the integrity of a spacecraft's COPV is an impact from the meteoroid and orbital debris environments (MMOD). These impacts, even from submillimeter particles, generate extremely high stress states in the CFRP that can damage numerous fibers. As a result of this possibility, initial assumptions in survivability analysis for some human-rated NASA space-craft have assumed that any alteration of the vessel due to impact is considered a catastrophic failure. This assumption is conservative and made due to lack of knowledge on the level of allow-able damage to the composite overwrap that can be sustained and still allow successful completion of the mission. To quantify the allowable damage level to the composite overwrap involves assessing stress redistribution following damage as well as evaluating possible time-dependent mechanisms involved in the COPV response to an impact event. Limited published work in this subject has shown that COPV can withstand at least some level of damage due to high energy impacts. These observations have been confirmed and expanded upon in recent experimental research performed by NASA. This research has demonstrated that there is not only robustness in a COPV to compensate for CFRP damage, but has also identified two significant failure modes for pressurized COPV. The lowest threshold failure mode involves the perforation of the vessel, and the highest threshold failure mode is the catastrophic rupture. While both of these failure modes mean a loss of the COPV, system robustness affords some tolerance to the venting as opposed to the more catastrophic rupture. As a consequence, it is necessary to understand the conditions that result in the transition between these failure modes. The aforementioned experimental research has been performed in both the unpressurized and pressurized condition to identify the damage level that triggered the failure thresh-old. This COPV test program was sponsored by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), and tests were performed at NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF). Planning and coordination were provided by NASA JSC Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) group, and the COPVs were provided by the ISS Program. Unpressurized testing has been conducted at the pressure of the vacuum test chamber, while, the pressurized testing has been conducted at 290 +/- 10 bar (4,200  100 psi) using nitrogen as the pressurizing gas, which corresponds to the design pressure for the target COPV. In this research, spherical aluminum projectiles with varying diameter has been chosen as the impactor. For the unpressurized COPV, the dependence of penetration up to the dependence of hole size in the liner has been obtained as a function of impact conditions. For the pressurized research, the dependence of penetration up to rupture has been obtained as a function of im-pact conditions. Two representative post-test photographs of the failed COPV's from a nor-mal impact into the COPV surface are shown in Fig. 1. These images display the dramatic difference between failure modes, venting (Fig. 1a) and rupture (Fig. 1b). For venting, liner perforation, severed composite fibers/tows and ply delamination are commonly observed damage characteristics of this COPV failure mode. In the case of rupture, the COPV typically experienced a separation of its domed regions and severe break-up of the cylindrical region. Fully understanding the transition from venting to rupture experimentally is costly and potentially unachievable for conditions that cannot be generated in the laboratory. These shortcomings have motivated the performance of three-dimensional numerical simulations to expand the existing experimental database. These simulations have been carried out with the nonlinear-structural-dynamics, analysis-tool, CTH. A typical pressure contour plot from an impact simulation of an entire COPV is shown in Fig. 2. To generate the COPV stress state without initiating a shock wave, the pressure in the simulated COPV is ramped up to the final pressure over a millisecond prior to impact of the projectile with nitrogen gas. Figure 2a shows the system in this initial condition. After one millisecond, a projectile is initiated into the simulation and impacts the COPV. Figure 2b shows the system after this impact. In the figure, the onset of venting is represented as the change in pressure (μbar), red to green, at the perforation site. Also seen in the figure is the eroded projectile that had passed into the COPV vessel with the generated shock wave in the pressurant propagating just ahead of the material. In this paper, pertinent experimental details and the development of the material constitutive models necessary for this work along with the efforts to validate their use are dis-cussed. The simulation results are presented and compared with the NASA experimental observations. While work is on-going from this effort, early observations pertinent to the failure threshold are presented.

Garcia, M. A.↗

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation of Imperfect (n, 233 U) Data and Model

Conventional nuclear data evaluation methods using generalized linear least squares make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate to minimize the cost function (even for nonlinear models); the model (e.g., of neutron cross section) and experimental data (including covariance data) are without defect and prior PDFs of parameters and measured data are known perfectly. Neglect of covariance between model parameters and measured data in conventional evaluations contributes to imperfections. These assumptions are inherent to the generalized linear least squares minimization method commonly used for resolved resonance region neutron cross section evaluations but are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, nonlinear models (e.g., R-matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g., imperfect covariance data). Here, these assumptions are removed in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, which is implemented using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Most importantly, new parameters are introduced to parameterize discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data to quantify judgement about discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. An evaluation of 233U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII.0 library and transmission data (Guber et al.) is presented, and posterior parameters are compared to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods. This example illustrates the effects of removing the most harmful assumption: that of model-data perfection.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗