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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,603 records · Page 89
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating Depolarizing Noise on Quantum Computers with Noise-Estimation Circuits

A significant problem for current quantum computers is noise. While there are many distinct noise channels, the depolarizing noise model often appropriately describes average noise for large circuits involving many qubits and gates. We present a method to mitigate the depolarizing noise by first estimating its rate with a noise-estimation circuit and then correcting the output of the target circuit using the estimated rate. The method is experimentally validated on the simulation of the Heisenberg model. We find that our approach in combination with readout-error correction, randomized compiling, and zero-noise extrapolation produces results close to exact results even for circuits containing hundreds of CNOT gates.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Stage Stochastic Risk Assessment With Markovian Representation of Renewable Power

Probabilistic forecasts provide a distribution of possible outputs and so can capture the uncertainty and variability of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE). However, taking advantage of uncertainty information has practical challenges that make it difficult to integrate probabilistic forecasting into control room decision-making. This paper proposes a novel use-case for probabilistic forecasts by incorporating them into the hour-ahead operations for situational awareness via a risk-averse multi-stage stochastic program. We employ a Markovian representation of the probabilistic forecasts that enables the formulation of the multi-stage problem and avoids a scenario generation phase. We test the model on a realistically sized system to assess risk and showcase the capability of using probabilistic renewable forecast as input to produce probabilistic output forecasts of future system states. The results show that the model can capture time consistency in the reserves and Area Control Error (ACE) forecast. The solution times are adequate for risk profiling in hour-ahead timescales.

forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2023

Out of distribution evaluation for neural image compression

Official code for the NeurIPS 2023 paper "Neural Image Compression: Generalization, Robustness, and Spectral Biases". This code can be used to: - Computing spectral distortion errors of images compressed with traditional codes or neural image compression models (as proposed in the aformentioned paper) - Visualize power spectral densities and fourier heatmaps (as proposed in the aformentioned paper) - Train and test a variety of neural image compression models

Lieberman, KelseyA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Common Electric Power Transmission System Model JSON Schema Specification

The Common Electric Power Transmission System Model (CTM) is an intuitive, extensible, language-agnostic, and error-resistant specification of electric power network components parameter names and units, and relation between components, intended for use by the research community developing new computational methods for power systems operations and simulation. Power system datasets following the CTM specification can be read as dictionaries and manipulated in that form in most programming languages (e.g., Python, Julia, C++). This standard data structure in CTM makes it easy to work in multiple power systems domains (e.g., economic operation, reliability assessment, electricity markets, stability assessment, etc.) without requiring conversions between use-case-specific file formats with information loss in the process. This repository specifies CTM as a JSON Schema, provides documentation, derivate (code-generated) implementations of CTM, and example data and usage of the schema for important use cases.

Aravena Solis, Ignacio↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification and Validation Activities for the Multi-Fidelity Toolkit

The Multi-Fidelity Toolkit (MFTK) is a simulation tool being developed at Sandia National Laboratories for aerodynamic predictions of compressible flows over a range of physics fidelities and computational speeds. These models include the Reynolds-Averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, the Euler equations, and modified Newtonian aerodynamics (MNA) equations, and they can be invoked independently or coupled with hierarchical Kriging to interpolate between high-fidelity simulations using lower-fidelity data. However, as with any new simulation capability, verification and validation are necessary to gather credibility evidence. This work describes formal code- and solution-verification activities as well as model validation with uncertainty considerations. Code verification is performed on the MNA model by comparing with an analytical solution for flat-plate and inclined-plate geometries. Solution-verification activities include grid-refinement studies of HIFiRE-1 wind tunnel measurements, which are used for validation, for all model fidelities. A thorough treatment of the validation comparison with prediction error and validation uncertainty is also presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibration and Commissioning of the LSST

Understanding the nature of dark energy and dark matter remains one of the fundamental questions in physics today; impacting our understanding of particle physics, cosmology, and possibly theories of gravity. Given the scale and complexity of the next generation of cosmology experiments (e.g., the Rubin Observatory, the Euclid satellite mission, and the Roman space telescope) we are entering an era where statistical noise no longer determines the accuracy to which we can measure cosmological parameters. Our ability to control and correct for systematics will ultimately determine the scientific impact of these experiments. This award addressed the challenge of how we determine what limits the accuracy of our cosmological measures, what techniques are appropriate for measuring and calibrating the properties of galaxies to best constrain cosmological models, how to develop statistical techniques that are insensitive to systematic errors, and how to optimize survey strategies in order to minimize systematics while maximizing the speed at which an experiment can achieve its science objectives. In this final technical report for award DE-SC0011635 we describe a set of open-source frameworks that simulate the characteristics and properties of current and planned cosmology surveys and the application of these frameworks to the development of new methodologies for estimating the properties and distances to galaxies that are robust to noisy and incomplete data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task D Final Report

Task D of DECOVALEX-2023 is focused on the simulation of the coupled thermal hydraulic-mechanical (THM) behaviour in the full-scale engineered barrier system (EBS). The Horonobe EBS experiment is the demonstration of the full-scale EBS in the underground research laboratory (URL) (performed by JAEA in the Horonobe URL in Japan). Task D consisted of the three steps, a preliminary step (Step 0), simulation of the laboratory tests (Step 1) and simulation of the in-situ full-scale EBS experiment (Step 2). Since the Horonobe EBS experiment demonstrates the vertical emplacement option of the EBS, the experiment gallery is also backfilled with the backfill material. Therefore, interaction between the EBS and the backfill material can also be demonstrated, such as deformation (change of density) of the buffer material. The underground water in the Horonobe URL is saline. This fact adds chemical processes to THM behaviour. For example, mechanical properties (such as swelling pressure of the buffer material and backfill material) and hydraulic properties (such as permeability of the buffer material and backfill material) change depending on the water chemistry. Task D was therefore a challenging Task focused on not only the relatively simple THM behaviour but also complex THM behaviour including chemical processes. Six research teams (BGR, CAS, JAEA, KAERI, SNL and Taipower) participated the Task D. BGR, CAS, JAEA, KAERI and Taipower research teams selected a THM approach, while the SNL research team selected a TH approach. Step 1 involved the simulation of laboratory test results and was important to check the numerical codes developed by the research teams. Step 1 was divided into four sub steps. The simulation results through the Step 1 identified the parameters for simulation of the Step 2. Basic parameters of the materials (buffer material, backfill material, rock mass, concrete, sand) were provided by JAEA. Special parameters which research team needed were identified by back analysis of Step 1. Most notably the mechanical behaviour of swelling and displacement depended on the applied model (elastic model or elastoplastic model). Parameters such as Young’s modulus were found to need smaller values than characterised in the fundamental laboratory test results (Step 1-1, 1-2) for the elastic model. Although laboratory experiments are usually simple, test results contained some error. For example, if the saturation level is 100 % or higher, it should be considered an error. This situation was presented in the Step 1-3. A possible reason is that the buffer material is a mixture of bentonite and silica sand. When a specimen is cut to measure volume or weight, sand grains will affect the measurement data. In Step 2, boundary conditions such as temperature on the surface of the simulated overpack, heater power of the electrical heaters installed in the simulated overpack, injection pressure and inflow rate of the test water, were applied. The outer boundary conditions can be selected using measured data (injection pressure and inflow rate of the test water that is controlled by the injection systems installed in the sand layer around the buffer material and in the boundary between backfill material and concrete support). Since such measured data has some noise, research teams developed their own simplified boundary conditions. Inner boundary conditions can be selected using measured data as heater power and temperature on the surface of the simulated overpack. These data also contain some noise, so research teams developed their own simplified developed boundary conditions. Task D validated various approaches thorough the simulation of the in-situ full scale EBS system including backfill of the gallery: variations in the coupling processes (THM or THC), analysis codes, and boundary conditions. Temperature distribution in the buffer material was simulated well by all research teams. This means thermal behaviour is not sensitive to the simulation approaches. Although the water content distribution on the outside of the buffer material was well simulated by all research teams, the simulation results differ from the measured values inside the buffer material (at the centre and inside, near the simulated overpack). The buffer material is made from tap water, but in the in-situ experiment, saline groundwater infiltrates the buffer material. Therefore, the selection of the hydraulic parameters of the buffer material greatly affects the simulation results of the re saturation behaviour of the buffer material. In the Horonobe EBS experiment, measured values suitable for validating the simulation results were not obtained near the simulated overpack. When simulating the pressure and deformation of the buffer material, the measurement data is easily affected by the installation conditions of the measurement sensors, so verifying the measurement data itself remains an issue. Mechanical simulation results differ depending on whether they are considered as elastic or elastoplastic phenomena. The accuracy of measured in-situ data can be assessed by detailed analysis comparing sampling specimen analysis and measured data. The Horonobe EBS experiment is scheduled to be dismantled in the future (FY2026 and 2027). This detailed dismantling investigation will finally confirm the measured data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

2024 Incubator Final Report: Active Hybrid Mooring

This Incubator project has defined and developed a representation of an active hybrid mooring (AHM) system in Simulink to assess whether the speed and accuracy of AHM is sufficient to warrant further investigation in a larger project. We first built a representative mooring system for the VolturnUS-S 15MW floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) in 1,000-meter water depth to provide baseline loads and displacements needed in the AHM system, with the results showing off-the-shelf actuators would be practical. We then defined model configurations for the numerical and physical substructures, using standalone MoorDyn v2 with a novel input strategy and chained hydraulic actuators represented in Simulink Simscape, respectively. The remainder of the project has focused on verifying the existing models for speed and accuracy against OpenFAST simulations, increasing their complexity to enable six degree of freedom (6DOF) operation, and connecting the numerical and physical substructures into a single holistic model. The verification phase of the project has shown promising results, though further refinement is needed to resolve accuracy discrepancies and for robust performance across a wider range of metocean conditions. The numerical model we developed is computationally stable and operates faster than real time using a time step of 0.01 seconds or shorter, indicating the model is likely fast enough for our AHM design to operate successfully. Additionally, the Simscape model of a hydraulic actuator operates with less than 0.3% relative error when actuating mooring loads from an OpenFAST simulation of the VolturnUS-S 1,000-meter mooring system. The aforementined refinements will be performed in the next year as a Continuing Incubator, with key remaining tasks include programming the predictor-corrector loop to minimize movement error, testing against more complex nonlinear wave cases, and expanding to enable loads from connected shared mooring lines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Proton Scattering in NOvA Test Beam

The NuMI Off-axis $\nu_e$ Appearance (NOvA) experiment is a two-detector, long baseline, neutrino oscillation experiment, which aims to make a determination of the neutrino mass ordering, the octant of $\theta_{23}$, and measure possible charge-parity (CP) violation. Determining these parameters is a step towards answering some of the fundamental questions about neutrinos. Are neutrinos their own antiparticle? Could neutrinos be responsible for the matter-antimatter asymmetry of the universe? How do neutrinos get their mass? Answering these questions requires precise measurements of the parameters that govern how neutrinos behave, namely the mass squared splittings, mixing angles, and possible CP-violating phase factor in the PNMS matrix. Reaching high precision requires minimizing both statistical and systematic errors. As NOvA continues to accumulate data, the sizes of our statistical errors continue to shrink such that in a couple of years they will be comparable to our systematic errors. NOvA's current systematic errors are dominated by energy and calibration uncertainties. The Test Beam program was initiated to address these uncertainties by assessing the detector response in an environment where more parameters of the incoming particles are known. One of the main goals of the Test Beam program is to garner a better understanding of our systematic errors, particularly in energy measurement and detector response, so that the modeling of these parameters can be improved. I studied protons in the Test Beam Detector with momenta around \unit[1]{GeV/c}, the high end of the momentum range relevant to quasielastic neutrino interactions in NOvA. One question this sample can help to answer is if we correctly simulate the fraction of protons that have an inelastic scattering interaction versus ranging out. If protons inelastically scatter at different rates in our simulation and data, the correction applied to the hadronic system when reconstructing neutrino energy could be inaccurate, since events with inelastic scattering will have less visible energy in the detector. This is particularly important for quasielastic $\nu_\mu$ events, which have the lowest hadronic energy resolution, and therefore give us our best measurements of $\Delta m_{32}^2$ and $\theta_{23}$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Automated prediction of lattice parameters from X-ray powder diffraction patterns

A key step in the analysis of powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) data is the accurate determination of unit-cell lattice parameters. This step often requires significant human intervention and is a bottleneck that hinders efforts towards automated analysis. This work develops a series of one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D-CNNs) trained to provide lattice parameter estimates for each crystal system. A mean absolute percentage error of approximately 10% is achieved for each crystal system, which corresponds to a 100- to 1000-fold reduction in lattice parameter search space volume. The models learn from nearly one million crystal structures contained within the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database and the Cambridge Structural Database and, due to the nature of these two complimentary databases, the models generalize well across chemistries. A key component of this work is a systematic analysis of the effect of different realistic experimental non-idealities on model performance. It is found that the addition of impurity phases, baseline noise and peak broadening present the greatest challenges to learning, while zero-offset error and random intensity modulations have little effect. However, appropriate data modification schemes can be used to bolster model performance and yield reasonable predictions, even for data which simulate realistic experimental non-idealities. In order to obtain accurate results, a new approach is introduced which uses the initial machine learning estimates with existing iterative whole-pattern refinement schemes to tackle automated unit-cell solution.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of Subhourly Clipping Loss Error Corrections: Preprint

Under-performance of solar PV systems is an important issue that increases risks for stakeholders, including developers, investors and operators. Recently some attention has focused on underestimation of inverter clipping losses as a possible source of over-prediction where sub-hourly solar variability is high. Several models and data sets have been analyzed over the past few years, with the aim of quantifying, predicting, and correcting underestimated clipping loss errors for systems with high DC/AC ratio and solar variability. In this research, we apply a machine learning model developed at NREL to two physical PV systems, to correct for subhourly clipping losses. For each system, we compare overall AC power output for the model taken at 1-minute intervals to AC power output taken at 1-hour intervals with the addition of the subhourly clipping correction. Our findings consistently show that the addition of the clipping loss correction lead to a reduction in mean bias error of 0.6\% and 1.1\% for systems A and B, respectively, with no additional filtering applied. When examining high solar variability periods where clipping is more pronounced, system A and B experienced a 1.4\% and 2.5\% reduction in mean bias error, respectively, when the clipping correction was applied.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?

Accurate prediction of future climate change hinges upon the ability of Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate clouds and their radiative effects. Even if an ESM can simulate the correct clouds, a systematic error in the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds (and, thus, cloud radiative effect) can exist if the clouds are simulated at the incorrect time of day. In this work, we develop an analytical model connecting diurnal cloud biases to emergent mean state radiative biases. With the use of satellite observations, we demonstrate that there are errors in the time of day that clouds are occurring in ESMs that would cause bias in shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) that is greater than 45% of the total SWCRE bias, but such errors in the cloud diurnal cycle are masked by other compensating errors, indicating that these ESMs are getting the right answer for the wrong reasons.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Heat Pipe Microreactors

To establish a technical basis for self-regulating microreactors, a model predictive control (MPC) system is investigated to proactively respond to anomalies and disturbances in anticipation of potential deviations from operating setpoints. Due to the difficulty of developing a physics-based surrogate model that can accurately match plant data in various operating conditions, machine learning algorithms are used in MPC, which allow for learning from both simulation and operation data, thus efficiently describing the targeted transient with arbitrary accuracy. However, one of the biggest concerns in applying ML algorithms like artificial neural networks (ANNs) is that the predictive capabilities of ANN are limited by training data. If there are gaps between the training and target domain, the accuracy of an ANN can degrade significantly when it is used to predict unseen data. To improve the predictive capability of ANN and enable a confident use of data-driven MPCs outside the training data, this study proposes an adaptive data-driven MPC framework. The system will monitor the discrepancy between plant responses and surrogate predictions, fine-tune the ANN-based surrogate when a large discrepancy is detected, and continue MPC operation with updated surrogates. The framework is demonstrated on a point kinetic model for microreactors. The hyperparameters of the update strategy, including layers to update, error thresholds, learning rate discount, and number of data points used for fine-tuning, are optimized so the simulated microreactor is able to follow changes in setpoint with the smallest of deviations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptable Data Driven Model Predictive Control for Heat Pipe Microreactors

To establish a technical basis for self-regulating microreactors, a model predictive control (MPC) system is investigated to proactively respond to anomalies and disturbances in anticipation of potential deviations from operating setpoints. Due to the difficulty of developing a physics-based surrogate model that can accurately match plant data in various operating conditions, machine learning algorithms are used in MPC, which allow for learning from both simulation and operation data, thus efficiently describing the targeted transient with arbitrary accuracy. However, one of the biggest concerns in applying ML algorithms like artificial neural networks (ANNs) is that the predictive capabilities of ANN are limited by training data. If there are gaps between the training and target domain, the accuracy of an ANN can degrade significantly when it is used to predict unseen data. To improve the predictive capability of ANN and enable a confident use of data-driven MPCs outside the training data, this study proposes an adaptive data-driven MPC framework. The system will monitor the discrepancy between plant responses and surrogate predictions, fine-tune the ANN-based surrogate when a large discrepancy is detected, and continue MPC operation with updated surrogates. The framework is demonstrated on a point kinetic model for microreactors. The hyperparameters of the update strategy, including layers to update, error thresholds, learning rate discount, and number of data points used for fine-tuning, are optimized so the simulated microreactor is able to follow changes in setpoint with the smallest of deviations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling and Experimental Validation of a Direct-Contact Counter-Flow Fluidized Bed Heat Exchanger for Thermal Energy Storage (TES) Applications

Particle-based thermal energy storage (TES) systems are an emerging energy storage technology. The technological advances have reduced costs, making TES more competitive and reliable in the marketplace but an efficient and reliable operation is heavily dependent on coherent heat transfer between air to particles or vice versa. The particle-based TES technologies provide an intermediate system that can store energy for short (0-10 h), long (10-200 h) and seasonal (> 200 h) timescales. The TES systems store energy by converting electricity to thermal energy; electricity can be directly sourced intermittent generation technologies and/or the grid, helping manage peak loads and other mismatches in supply and demand. The overall efficiency of the TES system depends on the performance of system components (particle storage silos and particle transfer mechanism etc.). The particle heat exchanger is one of the key system components that affects the system efficiency. The pressurized fluidized bed heat exchanger (PFB HX) performance is challenging to predict due to the chaotic behavior of particle and fluid interaction. This research presents a computational study of a novel direct-contact, counter-flow and air-to-particles PFB HX, that contributes in advancing the particle-based long-duration TES technologies. For the current analysis an unsteady Eulerian-Eulerian CFD model was developed and validated against experiments performed at the National Laboratory of the Rockies for two particle sizes (600 ..mu..m and 825 ..mu..m ). Following validation, parametric simulations were conducted to evaluate the effects of interphase drag models (Syamlal-O'Brien and Gidaspow), particle size, bed height and the influence of a frictional-viscosity term on hydrodynamics and heat transfer between the air & particles. The key findings from the analysis are: (1) for the studied operating window Syamlal-O'Brien provides superior agreement with measured gas temperatures (errors generally < 10%) while Gidaspow shows large deviations for the coarse particle case; (2) model predictions are most sensitive in the lower 0.2 m above the air distributor where bubble initiation and local mixing dominate interphase heat transfer; (3) representation of the distributor (number of inlet ports) materially affects predicted local mixing and temperature stratification; and (4) the Eulerian-Eulerian framework reproduces bulk thermal trends but shows regime dependent limitations for coarse particles, motivating mesoscale informed closures for scale-up analysis for future studies. These results provide validated guidance for drag selection and distributor design in particle-based thermal energy storage applications. Collectively, the validated model and parametric results quantify key drivers of PHB-HX performance and provide practical guidance for design and optimization. The results provide confidence in the model predictability and provide a step forward to improve on heat exchange performance. The demonstrated performance and modeling approach support the deployment and further development of this novel PHB-HX concept for robust, particle-based long-duration thermal energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

A practical extension of the recursive multi-fidelity model for the emulation of hole closure experiments

We report in regimes of high strain rate, the strength of materials often cannot be measured directly in experiments. Instead, the strength is inferred based on an experimental observable, such as a change in shape, that is matched by simulations supported by a known strength model. In hole closure experiments, the rate and degree to which a central hole in a plate of material closes during a dynamic loading event are used to infer material strength parameters. Due to the complexity of the experiment, many computationally expensive, three-dimensional simulations are necessary to train an emulator for calibration or other analyses. These simulations can be run at multiple grid resolutions, where dense grids are slower but more accurate. In an effort to reduce the computational cost, a combination of simulations with different resolutions can be combined to develop an accurate emulator within a limited training time. We explore the novel design and construction of an appropriate functional recursive multi-fidelity emulator of a strength model for tantalum in hole closure experiments that can be applied to arbitrarily large training data. Hence, by formulating a multi-fidelity model to employ low-fidelity simulations, we were able to reduce the error of our emulator by approximately 81% with only an approximately 1.6% increase in computing resource utilization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale scenarios of electric vehicle charging with a data-driven model of control

Transportation electrification is forecast to bring millions of new electric vehicles to roads worldwide this decade. Planning to support those vehicles depends on detailed scenarios of their electricity demand in both uncontrolled and controlled or smart charging scenarios. In this work, we present a novel modeling approach to enable rapid generation of demand estimates that represent the impact of controlled charging for large-scale scenarios with millions of individual drivers. To model the effect of load modulation control on aggregate charging profiles, we propose a novel machine learning approach that replaces traditional optimization approaches. We demonstrate its performance modeling workplace charging control under a range of electricity rate schedules, achieving small errors (2.5%–4.5%) while accelerating computations by more than 4000 times. To generate the uncontrolled charging demand for scenarios with residential, workplace, and public charging we use statistical representations of a large data set of real charging sessions. We demonstrate the methodology by generating diverse sets of scenarios for California's charging demand in 2030 which consider multiple charging segments and controls, each run locally in under 50 s. We further demonstrate support for rate design by modeling the large-scale impact of a new, custom rate schedule for workplace charging.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗