SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model Predictive Control”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,603 records · Page 89

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Viral Fate and Transport for COVID-19 - NVBL

The NVBL Viral Fate and Transport Team includes researchers from eleven DOE national laboratories and is utilizing unique experimental facilities combined with physics-based and data-driven modeling and simulation to study the transmission, transport, and fate of SARSCoV-2. The team was focused on understanding and ultimately predicting SARS-CoV-2 viability in varied environments with the goal of rapidly informing strategies that guide the nation’s resumption of normal activities. The primary goals of this project include prioritizing administrative and engineering controls that reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within an enclosed environment; identifying the chemical and physical properties that influence binding of SARS-CoV-2 to common surfaces; and understanding the contribution of environmental reservoirs and conditions on transmission and resurgence of SARS-CoV-2.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Viral Fate and Transport for COVID-19

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Mineral Impurities and Heat on Uranium(VI) Sorption onto Bentonite (Final Report)

Most nuclear waste disposal options include compacted bentonite, consisting of montmorillonite clay, as part of a barrier system to minimize contaminant mobility. Uranium (U) is the primary element in spent nuclear fuel, and from an environmental perspective, a potential contaminant of water resources. Furthermore, uranium may control nuclear fuel degradation rates and the consequent release of other radioactive contaminants based on its diffusive transport away from waste canisters. Uranium sorption onto clay and other mineral surfaces is expected to limit U(VI) mobility in these systems. However, at this point a prediction of U(VI) sorption and transport behavior in performance assessment (PA) models is complicated by a series of factors, such as: (1) the presence of various U(VI) solution species with different charges and sorption characteristics; (2) the complex microstructure of montmorillonite clay resulting in two types of clay porosities and multiple sorption sites; (3) the largely unknown effects of bentonite mineral impurities on pore water chemistry, U(VI) sorption and diffusion behavior; and (4) the potential impacts of heat, generated by the decay of spent fuel, on mineralogical and microstructural transformations, and any subsequent effects on radionuclide sorption and mobility. In this project, we investigated the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption and diffusion onto montmorillonite before and after mineral exposure to heat. Overall, our main goals were to: 1. Gain a mechanistic understanding of the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption and diffusion in montmorillonite/bentonite at variable chemical conditions, and before and after mineral exposure to heat; and to 2. Work towards the development of new surface complexation and diffusion models to predict U(VI) sorption and mobility in montmorillonite/bentonite while accounting for the impacts of calcite impurities and heat. In order to achieve these goals, we pursued the following research objectives and tasks: 1. Characterize the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption onto Na-montmorillonite, and evaluate if and how these effects change due to solids’ exposure to heat (Task 1). 2. Characterize U(VI) surface speciation in solid samples from Task 1, with a particular focus on U(VI) precipitates and co-precipitates (Task 2). 3. Test the relevance of observed changes in U(VI) sorption characteristics for U(VI) diffusive transport behavior in bentonite barriers (Task 3). 4. Evaluate the exclusion of anionic U(VI) solution complexes from clay nanopores (Task 4). 5. Building on Tasks 1-4, start the development of new surface complexation and reactive transport models that can simulate and predict U(VI) sorption and diffusion in complex bentonite systems (Task 5). A detailed description of all tasks, and their specific results and conclusions is provided in this report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-scale, Multi-disciplinary, and Multi-agent Explainable AI with Koopman-Undergirded Learning, Prediction, and Analysis (M3EA KULPA) (Project Closeout Report)

The goal of this project was to develop and use domain-aware machine learning formulations, based on the Koopman Operator (KO), for modelling multi-scale, multi-disciplinary (e.g., multi-physics), and/or multi-agent systems. The project developed these formulations for the following cases: • Systems with dynamics at two separate time scales, • Systems with a bi-level hierarchical control structure, • Systems with bi-level hierarchical control and dynamics at two separate time scales (the lower level controls operating at the faster time scale), and • Systems with n separate but interacting agents/disciplines (with/without control, respectively); the controls for each agent could include bi-level hierarchical control and dynamics at two separate time scales as described above. The project then defined a set of dynamical systems consisting of different nonlinear oscillators that could be used to test these different formulations and then subsequently learned the KO models for those systems. With the KO models, we were able to do the following: • Quantify system stability, including both long-term and transient behavior, • Quantify the effects of feedbacks between the different time scales and agents/disciplines in terms of those feedbacks’ effects on system stability, • Replace a standard Proportional-Integral (PI) control in the hierarchical control structure with a KO-based Linear-Quadratic Regular (LQR), a form of optimal control, • Calculate optimal supervisory control policies a) with and without time scale separated dynamics at the lower level control levels and b) with both PI and KO-based LQR lower level control policies, and • Calculate dynamic Nash equilibria for multi-agent systems where each agent makes its own control decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using MARCUS, MICRE, and COMBLE data to improve understanding and modeling of cloud, aerosol, and boundary layer processes at high-latitudes

Because it is believed general circulation (GCM) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models underestimate shortwave radiation over the Southern Ocean (SO) due to inadequate representations of boundary layer (BL) and cloud processes, it is critical to improve our understanding of key aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and BL processes. Over the north Atlantic Ocean (NA), cold-air outbreaks are common, yet few studies of the aerosol and environmental controls of the associated convective BL clouds exist as needed to develop and evaluate GCM representations. Although processes cannot be observed, cloud and aerosol properties can be measured in-situ or remotely retrieved, which when combined with numerical simulations enable process level understanding required to improve model representations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicted Impacts of Pt and Ionomer Distributions on Low-Pt-Loaded PEMFC Performance

Low-cost, high performance proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) have been difficult to develop due to limited understanding of coupled processes in the cathode catalyst layer (CCL). Low-Pt-loaded PEMFCs suffer losses beyond those predicted solely due to reduced catalyst area. Although consensus links these losses to thin ionomer films in the CCL, a precise mechanistic explanation remains elusive. In this publication, we present a physically based PEMFC model with novel structure-property relationships for thin-film Nafion, validated against PEMFC data with low Pt loading. Results suggest that flooding exacerbates kinetic limitations in low-loaded PEMFCs, shifting the Faradaic current distribution. As current density increases, protons travel further into the CCL, resulting in higher Ohmic overpotentials. We also present a parametric study of CCL design parameters. We find that graded Pt and ionomer loadings reduce Ohmic losses and flooding, but individually do not provide significant improvements. However, a dual-graded CCL (i.e., graded Pt and ionomer) is predicted to significantly improve the maximum power density and limiting current compared to uniformly loaded CCLs. This work highlights the importance of accurate transport parameters for thin-film Nafion and provides a pathway to low-cost PEMFCs via precise control of CCL microstructures.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Reduced-Order Model of a Nuclear Power Plant with Thermal Power Dispatch

This paper presents reduced-order modeling of thermal power dispatch (TPD) from a pressurized water reactor (PWR) for providing heat to nearby heat consuming industrial processes that seek to take advantage of nuclear heat to reduce carbon emissions. The reactor model includes the neutronics of the reactor core, thermal–hydraulics of the primary coolant cycle, and a three-lump model of the steam generator (SG). The secondary coolant cycle is represented with quasi-steady state mass and energy balance equations. The secondary cycle consists of a steam extraction system, high-pressure and low-pressure turbines, moisture separator and reheater, high-pressure and low-pressure feedwater heaters, deaerator, feedwater and condensate pumps, and a condenser. The steam produced by the SG is distributed between the turbines and the extraction steam line (XSL) that delivers steam to nearby industrial processes, such as production of clean hydrogen. The reduced-order simulator is verified by comparing predictions with results from separate validated steady-state and transient full-scope PWR simulators for TPD levels between 0% and 70% of the rated reactor power. All simulators indicate that the flow rate of steam in the main steam line and turbine systems decrease with increasing TPD, which causes a reduction in PWR electric power generation. The results are analyzed to assess the impact of TPD on system efficiency and feedwater flow control. Due to the simplicity of the proposed reduced-order model, it can be scaled to represent a PWR of any size with a few parametric changes. In the future, the proposed reduced-order model will be integrated into a power system model in a digital real-time simulator (DRTS) and physical hardware-in-the-loop simulations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Step Towards Machine Learning-based Coherent Generator Grouping for Emergency Control Applications in Modern Power Grid

A dynamic neural network (NN) based multi-class classifier is proposed for improving online prediction of coherent generator groups (CGGs), following the occurrences of various contingencies in the power grid. This is motivated by the increasing availability of the measurements from phasor measurement units (PMUs) and the number of grouping schemes is limited. The proposed method consists of three steps. First, by performing offline simulations, a library of system dynamic responses characterized by post-contingency rotor angles and speeds of individual generators is obtained. To generate sufficient data, up to N-2 contingencies and the uncertain parameters associated with the power grid including type and location of disturbance and fault clearing times are modeled. Secondly, the training data-set is produced by generating labels for individual contingencies using a hierarchical clustering method based on rotor angle and speed data. Lastly, the dynamic NN models are trained for online applications such as emergency controls and controlled islanding. The proposed method is tested on the standard 16-generator 68-bus system to demonstrate its performance. Furthermore, the impact of the sample data lengths on the CGG numbers is evaluated. It is interesting to observe that the time domain stability behaviors can be determined by examining the changes in the CGG numbers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

In situ laser reflectivity to monitor and control the nucleation and growth of atomically thin 2D materials*

The growth of atomically thin two-dimensional (2D) layered and other quantum materials is typically performed without in situ monitoring or control. Here, a simple laser reflectivity approach is demonstrated to provide in situ control over sub-monolayer thickness and growth kinetics during pulsed laser deposition (PLD) of MoSe 2 layers. First, the general technique is presented with emphasis on designing the maximum sensitivity of the optical contrast through consideration of Fresnel's equations with proper choice of layer thickness, substrate, and laser monitoring wavelength, incidence angle, and laser polarization. Then the 632.8 nm optical reflectivity of MoSe 2 layers on SiO 2 /Si substrates was predicted and compared with in situ monitoring of MoSe 2 growth by PLD under actual growth conditions using a probe HeNe laser beam. The measurements showed high sensitivity and excellent agreement with MoSe 2 surface coverages calculated from atomic resolution STEM analysis of 2D layers deposited in arrested growth experiments. Finally, growth kinetics revealed by these measurements showed sigmoidal nucleation and growth stages in the formation of the 2D MoSe 2 layers that are described by a simple model, indicating the promise of the laser reflectivity technique for in situ monitoring and control of 2D materials deposition.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dataset for "Bioaerosols are the dominant source of warm-temperature immersion-mode INPs and drive uncertainties in INP predictability

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are a rare subset of atmospheric aerosol that can initiate primary ice formation and thus trigger cloud glaciation. The re is a significant gap between our ability to measure INPs and to predict their concentrations and variability in large-scale weather and climate models. Accurate simulation of I NPs requires simulation of their major particle sources, as well as representative parameterizations of IN efficiency. Thus, there is a need for measurements of INP concentrations , delineated by particle type, to validate and improve model prediction of INP concentrations. Here we present a novel method for speciating INP concentrations into the relative c ontributions from dust, sea spray aerosol (SSA), and bioaerosol using single particle measurements. In a field campaign at Bodega Bay (coastal California), we find that bioaerosol s were the primary source of INPs between -12 and -20 ?C, while dust was a relatively minor source and SSA did not contribute significantly. We show that recent INP parameterizati ons for dust and SSA accurately predict ambient INP concentrations for these particle types. Finally, we use the speciated INP concentrations to evaluate the simulation of INPs at Bodega Bay, using a Lagrangian approach to connect the locally-observed aerosol with regionally-widespread emissions parameterizations. We find that we can skillfully simulate du st and SSA INPs, but not bioaerosol INPs. This points to a need for additional research to identify the major factors controlling the emissions and INP efficiency of bioaerosol IN Ps in order to develop improved parameterizations and enable their improved representation in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Thermostat and Lighting Control for Load Shedding

This report describes the modeling methodology for an upgrade package of two end-use savings shape measures - Thermostat Control for Load Shedding and Lighting Control for Load Shedding - and briefly introduces key results. The package combines thermostat control for load shedding and lighting control for load shedding measures to reduce the HVAC and lighting load during the building's electricity peak window every weekday. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the predicted peak window, and then relaxes the thermostat setpoints and dims the lighting level from the original schedules during the peak window to reduce the peak demand. The measure is applicable to (large, medium and small) offices, warehouses, and primary and secondary schools, which correspond to approximately 68% of the stock floor area of commercial buildings in ComStock analysis. The measure demonstrates 3%-10% daily peak demand reduction performance for applicable buildings, and 0.97% total site energy savings (0 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards fast and accurate predictions of radio frequency power deposition and current profile via data-driven modelling: applications to lower hybrid current drive

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modelling and real-time control applications. The machine learning models use a database of more than 16 000 GENRAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods ensure that the database covers the range of nine input parameters ( $n_{e0}$ , $T_{e0}$ , $I_p$ , $B_t$ , $R_0$ , $n_{\|}$ , $Z_{{\rm eff}}$ , $V_{{\rm loop}}$ and $P_{{\rm LHCD}}$ ) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the inference time from minutes to $\sim$ ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep neural network improves the estimation of polygenic risk scores for breast cancer

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate the genetic risk of an individual for a complex disease based on many genetic variants across the whole genome. Here, we compared a series of computational models for estimation of breast cancer PRS. A deep neural network (DNN) was found to outperform alternative machine learning techniques and established statistical algorithms, including BLUP, BayesA, and LDpred. In the test cohort with 50% prevalence, the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) were 67.4% for DNN, 64.2% for BLUP, 64.5% for BayesA, and 62.4% for LDpred. BLUP, BayesA, and LPpred all generated PRS that followed a normal distribution in the case population. However, the PRS generated by DNN in the case population followed a bimodal distribution composed of two normal distributions with distinctly different means. This suggests that DNN was able to separate the case population into a high-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS significantly higher than the control population and a normal-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS similar to the control population. This allowed DNN to achieve 18.8% recall at 90% precision in the test cohort with 50% prevalence, which can be extrapolated to 65.4% recall at 20% precision in a general population with 12% prevalence. Interpretation of the DNN model identified salient variants that were assigned insignificant p values by association studies, but were important for DNN prediction. These variants may be associated with the phenotype through nonlinear relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Intrinsic chemical reactivity of solid-electrolyte interphase components in silicon–lithium alloy anode batteries probed by FTIR spectroscopy

Herein we report the solid reaction products from the chemical reaction of aprotic battery electrolyte and three purported components of the Si-based anode SEI : SiO 2 nanoparticles (NPs), lithium silicate (Li x SiO y ) powders, and Si NPs. We use FTIR and classical molecular dynamics/density functional perturbation theory to assess the solid products remaining with these model materials after exposure to electrolyte. The absence of electrochemical bias provides a view of the chemical speciation resulting from early-stage chemical reactivity during battery assembly as well as under open circuit storage conditions. We believe these species represent the initial stages of SEI growth and predict they likely drive subsequent chemical and electrochemical reactions by controlling molecular interactons at the Si active material interface. We find that nominally equivalent materials react differently even before any electrochemistry is performed (e.g., acidic SiO 2 dissolves whereas alkaline SiO 2 is relatively robust), and derive new understanding of the chemical species that could and could not form stable SEI components in Si-based anodes. These results can be used to inform how to passivate Si anode surfaces and potentially generate an artificially engineered SEI that would be stable and enable next-generation battery anodes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric pressure plasma functionalization of polystyrene

Atmospheric pressure plasma jets (APPJs) are used to improve the adhesive and hydrophilic properties of commodity hydrocarbon polymers such as polypropylene, polyethylene, and polystyrene (PS). These improvements largely result from adding oxygen functional groups to the surface. PS functionalization is of interest to produce high value biocompatible well-plates and dishes, which require precise control over surface properties. In this paper, we discuss results from a computational investigation of APPJ functionalization of PS surfaces using He/O 2 /H 2 O gas mixtures. A newly developed surface reaction mechanism for functionalization of PS upon exposure to these plasmas is discussed. A global plasma model operated in plug-flow mode was used to predict plasma-produced species fluxes onto the PS surface. A surface site balance model was used to predict oxygen-functionalization of the PS following exposure to the plasma and ambient air. We found that O-occupancy on the surface strongly correlates with the O-atom flux to the PS, with alcohol groups and cross-linked products making the largest contributors to total oxygen fraction. Free radical sites, such as alkoxy and peroxy, are quickly consumed in the post-plasma exposure to air through passivation and cross-linking. O-atom fluences approaching 10 17 cm -2 saturate the O-occupancy on the PS surface, creating functionality that is not particularly sensitive to moderate changes in operating conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Verification of a Reduced-Order Extension Spring Model

Adopting reduced order models (ROMs) of springs lowers the computational cost of stronglink simulations. However, ROMs introduce currently unquantified error to such analyses. This study addresses that lack of data by comparing a hexahedral mesh to a commonly used ROM beam mesh. Two types of analyses were performed, a quasi-static displacement-controlled pull and a haversine shock, examining basic spring properties as well as dynamics and stress/strain data. Both tests showed good similarities between the hexahedral and beam meshes, especially when comparing reaction force and stress trends and maximums. Equivalent plastic strain results were not quite as favorable, indicating that the beam model may be less likely to correctly predict spring failure. Despite reducing computation times by over 48 hours in all shock cases, appropriate use of the ROM should carefully balance this advantage with its reduction in accuracy, especially when examining spring failure and outputting variables such as equivalent plastic strain.

42 ENGINEERING↗