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At least 1,603 records · Page 89

Shell Models of RMHD Turbulence and the Heating of Solar Coronal Loops

A simplified nonlinear numerical model for the development of incompressible magnetohydrodynamics in the presence of a strong magnetic field B|| and stratification, nicknamed 'Shell-Atm,' is presented. In planes orthogonal to the mean field, the nonlinear incompressible dynamics is replaced by two-dimensional shell models for the complex variables u and b, allowing one to reach large Reynolds numbers while at the same time carrying out sufficiently long integrations to obtain good statistics at moderate computational cost. The shell models of different planes are coupled by Alfve'n waves propagating along B||. The model may be applied to open or closed magnetic field configurations where the axial field dominates and the plasma pressure is low; here we apply it to the specific case of a magnetic loop of the solar corona heated by means of turbulence driven by photospheric motions, and we use statistics for its analysis. The Alfven waves interact nonlinearly and form turbulent spectra in the directions perpendicular and, through propagation, also parallel to the mean field. A heating function is obtained and shown to be intermittent; the average heating is consistent with values required for sustaining a hot corona and is proportional to the aspect ratio of the loop to the -1.5 power, and haracteristic properties of heating events are distributed as power laws. Crosscorrelations show a delay of dissipation compared with energy content.

corona↗

Maintaining Adequate Carbon Dioxide Washout for an Advanced Extravehicular Mobility Unit

Over the past several years, NASA has realized tremendous progress in technology development that is aimed at the production of an Advanced Extravehicular Mobility Unit (AEMU). Of the many functions provided by the spacesuit and portable life support subsystem within the AEMU, delivering breathing gas to the astronaut along with removing the carbon dioxide (CO2) remains one of the most important environmental functions that the AEMU can control. Carbon dioxide washout is the capability of the ventilation flow in the spacesuit helmet to provide low concentrations of CO2 to the crew member to meet breathing requirements. CO2 washout performance is a critical parameter needed to ensure proper and sufficient designs in a spacesuit and in vehicle applications such as sleep stations and hygiene compartments. Human testing to fully evaluate and validate CO2 washout performance is necessary but also expensive due to the levied safety requirements. Moreover, correlation of math models becomes challenging because of human variability and movement. To supplement human CO2 washout testing, a breathing capability will be integrated into a suited manikin test apparatus to provide a safe, lower cost, stable, easily modeled alternative to human testing. Additionally, this configuration provides NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) the capability to evaluate CO2 washout under off-nominal conditions that would otherwise be unsafe for human testing or difficult due to fatigue of a test subject. Testing has been under way in-house at JSC and analysis has been initiated to evaluate whether the technology provides sufficient performance in ensuring that the CO2 is removed sufficiently and the ventilation flow is adequate for maintaining CO2 washout in the AEMU spacesuit helmet of the crew member during an extravehicular activity. This paper will review recent CO2 washout testing and analysis activities, testing planned in-house with a spacesuit simulator, and the associated analytical work along with insights from the medical aspect on the testing.

Chullen, Cinda↗

Analysis of success probability/cost trades for small landers in a Mars network

The premise to be tested in this analysis is whether cost economics may accrue by delivering more landers designed to lower reliability of operation (compared to fewer landers of higher reliability) to obtain a desired probability of achieving a given number of lander successes. Generally, the application in mind is a network of penetrators, although the analysis may apply as well to other small lander concepts or even to simple rovers. The method of analysis is based on a probabilistic model of lander success and a related probabilistic model of project cost including the lander, spacecraft carrier, and integration, but not launch or operations costs. Quantitative results are obtained in a normalized and parametric fashion. Sensitivity to the assumed model parameters is also examined.

Friedlander, Alan L.↗

Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Development of the IBSAL-SimMOpt Method for the Optimization of Quality in a Corn Stover Supply Chain

Variability on the physical characteristics of feedstock has a relevant effect on the reactor’s reliability and operating cost. Most of the models developed to optimize biomass supply chains have failed to quantify the effect of biomass quality and preprocessing operations required to meet biomass specifications on overall cost and performance. The Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) model estimates the harvesting, collection, transportation, and storage cost while considering the stochastic behavior of the field-to-biorefinery supply chain. This paper proposes an IBSAL-SimMOpt (Simulation-based Multi-Objective Optimization) method for optimizing the biomass quality and costs associated with the efforts needed to meet conversion technology specifications. The method is developed in two phases. For the first phase, a SimMOpt tool that interacts with the extended IBSAL is developed. For the second phase, the baseline IBSAL model is extended so that the cost for meeting and/or penalization for failing in meeting specifications are considered. The IBSAL-SimMOpt method is designed to optimize quality characteristics of biomass, cost related to activities intended to improve the quality of feedstock, and the penalization cost. A case study based on 1916 farms in Ontario, Canada is considered for testing the proposed method. Analysis of the results demonstrates that this method is able to find a high-quality set of non-dominated solutions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Updated Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code RDEIM Model Report for MACCS v4.2

This report updates the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM) GDP-based model described in Bixler et al. (2020) used in the MACCS accident consequence analysis code. MACCS is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. The update of the RDEIM model in version 4.2 expresses the national recovery calculation explicitly, rather than implicitly as in the previous version. The calculation of the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. However, anticipated gains from recovery are now allocated across all the GDP loss types – direct, indirect, and induced – whereas in version 4.1, all recovery gains were accounted for in the indirect loss type. To achieve this, we’ve introduced new methodology to streamline and simplify the calculation of all types of losses and recovery. In addition, RDEIM includes other kinds of losses, including tangible wealth. This includes loss of tangible assets (e.g., depreciation) and accident expenditures (e.g., decontamination). This document describes the updated RDEIM economic model and provides examples of loss and recovery calculation, results analysis, and presentation. Changes to the tangible cost calculation and accident expenditures are described in section 2.2. The updates to the RDEIM input-output (I-O) model are not expected to affect the final benchmark results Bixler et al. (2020), as the RDEIM calculation for the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. The reader is referred to the MACCS revision history for other cost modelling changes since version 4.0 that may affect the benchmark. RDEIM has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS. It is based on I-O theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double-counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is intended to be used for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Calomplification — the power of generative calorimeter models

Motivated by the high computational costs of classical simulations, machine-learned generative models can be extremely useful in particle physics and elsewhere. They become especially attractive when surrogate models can efficiently learn the underlying distribution, such that a generated sample outperforms a training sample of limited size. This kind of GANplification has been observed for simple Gaussian models. We show the same effect for a physics simulation, specifically photon showers in an electromagnetic calorimeter.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Automotive Lithium-ion Cell Manufacturing: Regional Cost Structures and Supply Chain Considerations

Manufacturing capacity for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) — which power many consumer electronics and are increasingly used to power electric vehicles — is heavily concentrated in East Asia. To illuminate the factors that drive regional competitiveness in automotive LIB cell production, this study models cell manufacturing cost and minimum sustainable price, and examines development of LIB supply chains and current LIB market conditions. The study shows that factors driving the cost competitiveness of LIB manufacturing locations are mostly built—supply chain developments and competition, access to materials, and production expertise. Some regional costs — including cost of capital, labor, and materials — are significant and should be considered.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Efficient Conservative Numerical Schemes for 1D Nonlinear Spherical Diffusion Equations with Applications in Battery Modeling

Mathematical models of batteries which make use of the intercalation of a species into a solid phase need to solve the corresponding mass transfer problem. Because solving this equation can significantly add to the computational cost of a model, various methods have been devised to reduce the computational time. In this paper we focus on a comparison of the formulation, accuracy, and order of the accuracy for two numerical methods of solving the spherical diffusion problem with a constant or non-constant diffusion coefficient: the finite volume method and the control volume method. Both methods provide perfect mass conservation and second order accuracy in mesh spacing, but the control volume method provides the surface concentration directly, has a higher accuracy for a given numbers of mesh points and can also be easily extended to variable mesh spacing. Variable mesh spacing can significantly reduce the number of points that are required to achieve a given degree of accuracy in the surface concentration (which is typically coupled to the other battery equations) by locating more points where the concentration gradients are highest. (C) 2013 The Electrochemical Society. All rights reserved.

Zeng, Y↗

A Geosynchronous Lidar System for Atmospheric Winds and Moisture Measurements

An observing system comprised of two lidars in geosynchronous orbit would enable the synoptic and meso-scale measurement of atmospheric winds and moisture, both of which are key first-order variables of the Earth's weather equation. Simultaneous measurement of these parameters at fast revisit rates promises large advancements in our weather prediction skills. Such capabilities would be unprecedented and yield greatly improved and finer resolution initial conditions for models, make existing costly and cumbersome measurement approaches obsolete, and obviate the use of numerical techniques needed to correct data obtained using present observing systems. Additionally, simultaneous synoptic wind and moisture observations would lead to improvements in model parameterizations, and in our knowledge of small-scale weather processes. Technology and science data product assessments are ongoing. Results will be presented during the conference.

Emmitt, G. D.↗

Comparison of interlaminar damage modeling strategies for hybrid composite/aluminum laminates subjected to low-velocity impact

Low-velocity impact of hybrid metal-composite structures was investigated experimentally and computationally. Composite laminates consisting of 2D woven glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) and carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) were joined with a 6061-T6 aluminum plate using an epoxy adhesive. Two variations of the structure were studied; one consisting of all plies oriented at 0° and one consisting of all plies oriented at 45°. A drop tower was used to impact structures at a range of energies, including energies above and below the threshold at which the aluminum layer was perforated. Numerical simulations were implemented using Sierra/SM, an in-house transient dynamics finite element code developed at Sandia National Laboratories. A Hosford plasticity model was used to describe the response of the aluminum layer. A newly implemented orthotropic continuum damage mechanics (CDM) constitutive model was used to represent the composite laminate. This 3D-CDM model was compared to a cohesive zone model (2D-CDM/CZM) to investigate efficacy of aluminum perforation energy prediction, delamination prediction, and computational cost. Accuracy of each model was evaluated using the experimental results. Each showed good agreement with the tests for both the force and velocity histories, as well as the observed damage mechanisms. The 2D-CDM/CZM model was marginally more accurate in capturing both the composite and aluminum behavior — this model averaged error percentages of -11.2% and 10.8% for residual velocity and peak force, respectively. Meanwhile, the 3D-CDM model predictions yielded average error percentages of -35.5% (velocity) and 22.6% (force). However, the 3D-CDM model generally resulted in a decreased computational cost; the average run time was 14% shorter than the 2D-CDM/CZM model and 3x as many timesteps per hour were computed using the same computational resources. In conclusion, new experimental data on the impact and perforation resistance of metal-composite laminates is presented in addition to numerical predictions of the impact behavior.

Carbon fiber↗

Space station needs, attributes and architectural options study costing working group briefing

The interface between tasks and the sequence of information flow are charted. The mission model and the requirements of each mission. These requirements along with the mission model schedule resulted in a further definition of the mission payloads, the Space Station architecture and the STS requirements was developed in task 2. The information was used to estimate the cost parameters necessary to generate cost estimates for the system with the aid of cost models for the Missions, Space Station and Space Transportation.

Source record↗

Co-Optimization of CO 2 -EOR and Storage Processes in Mature Oil Reservoirs

This article presents an optimization methodology for CO 2 enhanced oil recovery in partially depleted reservoirs. A field-scale compositional reservoir flow model was developed for assessing the performance history of an active CO 2 flood and for optimizing both oil production and CO 2 storage in the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas. A geological framework model constructed from geophysical, geological, and engineering data acquired from the FWU was the basis for all reservoir simulations and the optimization method. An equation of state was calibrated with laboratory fluid analyses and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP). Initial history calibrations of primary, secondary and tertiary recovery were conducted as the basis for the study. After a good match was achieved, an optimization approach consisting of a proxy or surrogate model was constructed with a polynomial response surface method (PRSM). The PRSM utilized an objective function that maximized both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. Experimental design was used to link uncertain parameters to the objective function. Control variables considered in this study included: water alternating gas cycle and ratio, production rates and bottom-hole pressure of injectors and producers. Other key parameters considered in the modeling process were CO 2 purchase, gas recycle and addition of infill wells and/or patterns. The PRSM proxy model was ‘trained’ or calibrated with a series of training simulations. This involved an iterative process until the surrogate model reached a specific validation criterion. A sensitivity analysis was first conducted to ascertain which of these control variables to retain in the surrogate model. A genetic algorithm with a mixed-integer capability optimization approach was employed to determine the optimum developmental strategy to maximize both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The proxy model reduced the computational cost significantly. The validation criteria of the reduced order model ensured accuracy in the dynamic modeling results. The prediction outcome suggested robustness and reliability of the genetic algorithm for optimizing both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The reservoir modeling approach used in this study illustrates an improved approach to optimizing oil production and CO 2 storage within partially depleted oil reservoirs such as FWU. Lastly, this study may serve as a benchmark for potential CO 2 –EOR projects in the Anadarko basin and/or geologically similar basins throughout the world.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Application of Bound-to-Bound Data Collaboration approach for development and uncertainty quantification of a reduced char combustion model

The development of efficient industrial oxy-coal boilers can be significantly aided by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools, as far as fidelity in modeling coal combustion is also complemented by feasible computational costs. Reduced and predictive models are the most suitable for this application scale. Reduced models feature predictivity when they are validated against a broad range of experiments and targeted by Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) procedures. This work proposes a numerical procedure that uses Bound-to-Bound Data Collaboration (B2B-DC) to derive a reduced char combustion model describing transport phenomena and reactions between char carbon and O 2 , CO 2 and H 2 O, in both conventional and oxy-conditions. The approach determines the consistency between a numerical model and an experimental dataset. The latter is made up of the experiments carried out in an optically accessible laminar entrained flow reactor, operated by Sandia National Laboratories. The procedure follows five steps towards predictive modeling capability, namely: quantification of the uncertainty in the experiments, via instrument verification and modeling; development of a physics model and continuous improvement of its fidelity, via model-form uncertainty; identification of the uncertain and most sensitive parameters and of their prior bounds; sampling of the initial uncertain parameter space and training of a surrogate model; validation of the physics model via inference from the data. The last step, also known as inverse problem, is performed by applying the Bound-to-Bound Data Collaboration approach. A char combustion model is found consistent with the experimental data and its validity stands for conventional and oxy-combustion conditions. It accounts for heterogeneous reactions at the particle surface, mass transport of species in the particle boundary layer, pore diffusion and surface area changes. The consistent reduced model overcomes the differences in mass transport and kinetics observed in the experimental campaign. In conclusion, a reduction of the initial degree of uncertainty in both model and experiments is achieved.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Interactive Gas Chemistry for Enhanced Science Capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3

Atmospheric chemistry plays a crucial role in Earth system models (ESMs), controlling atmospheric composition and radiative balance; it is highly interactive with the physical climate, biogeochemical cycles, and human systems. However, it often imposes computational challenges in an ESM. Here we develop a full troposphere‐stratosphere interactive chemistry module for the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We intentionally build a streamlined module based on E3SM version 2 that interacts with other components and maintains all of major chemical and chemistry‐climate feedbacks. The module incorporates a new, highly efficient tracer advection scheme; linearization of stratospheric chemistry; and abridged tropospheric chemical mechanism with 28 reactive tracers. This new model, E3SM‐chem, can readily perform century‐long climate simulations of ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide based on emission scenarios as well as provide hourly budgets for the gas‐phase radicals that drive aerosol chemistry. We evaluate E3SM‐chem with an atmosphere‐only simulation as in the recent climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6) finding results similar to the other CMIP6 models. For the present‐day, E3SM‐chem matches the standard measurement metrics for stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, surface air quality, other key reactive gases like carbon monoxide, and the methane lifetime. Overall, E3SM‐chem maintains the climate fidelity of the baseline model while adding at most 20% to the computational cost of the atmosphere model. Hence, interactive chemistry can be a default configuration for long climate simulations at resolutions of 1° or finer, which is crucial for producing self‐consistent chemistry‐climate feedbacks that alter the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Active learning of reactive Bayesian force fields applied to heterogeneous catalysis dynamics of H/Pt

Abstract Atomistic modeling of chemically reactive systems has so far relied on either expensive ab initio methods or bond-order force fields requiring arduous parametrization. Here, we describe a Bayesian active learning framework for autonomous “on-the-fly” training of fast and accurate reactive many-body force fields during molecular dynamics simulations. At each time-step, predictive uncertainties of a sparse Gaussian process are evaluated to automatically determine whether additional ab initio training data are needed. We introduce a general method for mapping trained kernel models onto equivalent polynomial models whose prediction cost is much lower and independent of the training set size. As a demonstration, we perform direct two-phase simulations of heterogeneous H 2 turnover on the Pt(111) catalyst surface at chemical accuracy. The model trains itself in three days and performs at twice the speed of a ReaxFF model, while maintaining much higher fidelity to DFT and excellent agreement with experiment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic resource allocation drives growth under nitrogen starvation in eukaryotes

Cells can sense changes in their extracellular environment and subsequently adapt their biomass composition. Nutrient abundance defines the capability of the cell to produce biomass components. Under nutrient-limited conditions, resource allocation dramatically shifts to carbon-rich molecules. Here, we used dynamic biomass composition data to predict changes in growth and reaction flux distributions using the available genome-scale metabolic models of five eukaryotic organisms (three heterotrophs and two phototrophs). We identified temporal profiles of metabolic fluxes that indicate long-term trends in pathway and organelle function in response to nitrogen depletion. Surprisingly, our calculations of model sensitivity and biosynthetic cost showed that free energy of biomass metabolites is the main driver of biosynthetic cost and not molecular weight, thus explaining the high costs of arginine and histidine. We demonstrated how metabolic models can accurately predict the complexity of interwoven mechanisms in response to stress over the course of growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling surface motion effects in N{sub 2} dissociation on W(110): Ab initio molecular dynamics calculations and generalized Langevin oscillator model

Accurately modeling surface temperature and surface motion effects is necessary to study molecule-surface reactions in which the energy dissipation to surface phonons can largely affect the observables of interest. We present here a critical comparison of two methods that allow to model such effects, namely, the ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) method and the generalized Langevin oscillator (GLO) model, using the dissociation of N{sub 2} on W(110) as a benchmark. AIMD is highly accurate as the surface atoms are explicitly part of the dynamics, but this advantage comes with a large computational cost. The GLO model is much more computationally convenient, but accounts for lattice motion effects in a very approximate way. Results show that, despite its simplicity, the GLO model is able to capture the physics of the system to a large extent, returning dissociation probabilities which are in better agreement with AIMD than static-surface results. Furthermore, the GLO model and the AIMD method predict very similar energy transfer to the lattice degrees of freedom in the non-reactive events, and similar dissociation dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗