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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,603 records · Page 89
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Improving climate model coupling through a complete mesh representation: a case study with E3SM (v1) and MOAB (v5.x)

One of the fundamental factors contributing to the spatiotemporal inaccuracy in climate modeling is the mapping of solution field data between different discretizations and numerical grids used in the coupled component models. The typical climate computational workflow involves evaluation and serialization of the remapping weights during the preprocessing step, which is then consumed by the coupled driver infrastructure during simulation to compute field projections. Tools like Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and TempestRemap offer capability to generate conservative remapping weights, while the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) that is utilized in many production climate models exposes functionality to make use of the operators to solve the coupled problem. However, such multistep processes present several hurdles in terms of the scientific workflow and impede research productivity. In order to overcome these limitations, we present a fully integrated infrastructure based on the Mesh Oriented datABase (MOAB) library, which allows for a complete description of the numerical grids and solution data used in each submodel. Through a scalable advancing-front intersection algorithm, the supermesh of the source and target grids are computed, which is then used to assemble the high-order, conservative, and monotonicity-preserving remapping weights between discretization specifications. The Fortran-compatible interfaces in MOAB are utilized to directly link the submodels in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to enable online remapping strategies in order to simplify the coupled workflow process. We demonstrate the superior computational efficiency of the remapping algorithms in comparison with other state-of-the-science tools and present strong scaling results on large-scale machines for computing remapping weights between the spectral element atmosphere and finite volume discretizations on the polygonal ocean grids.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf

Abstract. Permafrost currently stores more than a fourth of global soil carbon. A warming climate makes this carbon increasingly vulnerable to decomposition and release into the atmosphere in the form of greenhouse gases. The resulting climate feedback can be estimated using land surface models, but the high complexity and computational cost of these models make it challenging to use them for estimating uncertainty, exploring novel scenarios, and coupling with other models. We have added a representation of permafrost to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector, calibrated to be consistent with both historical data and 21st century Earth system model projections of permafrost thaw. We include permafrost as a separate land carbon pool that becomes available for decomposition into both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) once thawed; the thaw rate is controlled by region-specific air temperature increases from a preindustrial baseline. We found that by 2100 thawed permafrost carbon emissions increased Hector’s atmospheric CO2 concentration by 5 %–7 % and the atmospheric CH4 concentration by 7 %–12 %, depending on the future scenario, resulting in 0.2–0.25 ∘C of additional warming over the 21st century. The fraction of thawed permafrost carbon available for decomposition was the most significant parameter controlling the end-of-century temperature change in the model, explaining around 70 % of the temperature variance, and was distantly followed by the initial stock of permafrost carbon, which contributed to about 10 % of the temperature variance. The addition of permafrost in Hector provides a basis for the exploration of a suite of science questions, as Hector can be cheaply run over a wide range of parameter values to explore uncertainty and can be easily coupled with integrated assessment and other human system models to explore the economic consequences of warming from this feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Importance of ice nucleation and precipitation on climate with the Parameterization of Unified Microphysics Across Scales version 1 (PUMASv1)

Cloud microphysics is critical for weather and climate prediction. In this work, we document updates and corrections to the cloud microphysical scheme used in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and other models. These updates include a new nomenclature for the scheme, now called Parameterization of Unified Microphysics Across Scales (PUMAS), and the ability to run the scheme on graphics processing units (GPUs). The main science changes include refactoring an ice number limiter and associated changes to ice nucleation, adding vapor deposition onto snow, and introducing an implicit numerical treatment for sedimentation. We also detail the improvements in computational performance that can be achieved with GPU acceleration. We then show the impact of these scheme changes on the (a) mean state climate, (b) cloud feedback response to warming, and (c) aerosol forcing. We find that corrections are needed to the immersion freezing parameterization and that ice nucleation has important impacts on climate. We also find that the revised scheme produces less cloud liquid and ice but that this can be adjusted by changing the loss process for cloud liquid (autoconversion). Furthermore, there are few discernible effects of the PUMAS changes on cloud feedbacks but some reductions in the magnitude of aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). Small cloud feedback changes appear to be related to the implicit sedimentation scheme, with a number of factors affecting ACIs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Projecting end-of-century climate extremes and their impacts on the hydrology of a representative California watershed

Abstract. In California, it is essential to understand the evolution of water resources in response to a changing climate to sustain its economy and agriculture and to build resilient communities. Although extreme conditions have characterized the historical hydroclimate of California, climate change will likely intensify hydroclimatic extremes by the end of the century (EoC). However, few studies have investigated the impacts of EoC extremes on watershed hydrology. We use cutting-edge global climate and integrated hydrologic models to simulate EoC extremes and their effects on the water-energy balance. We assess the impacts of projected driest, median, and wettest water years under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 on the hydrodynamics of the Cosumnes River basin. Substantial changes to annual average temperature (>+2.5 ∘C) and precipitation (>+38 %) will characterize the EoC extreme water years compared to their historical counterparts. A shift in the dominant form of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, is projected to fall earlier. These changes reduce snowpack by more than 90 %, increase peak surface water and groundwater storages up to 75 % and 23 %, respectively, and drive the timing of peak storage to occur earlier in the year. Because EoC temperatures and soil moisture are high, both potential and actual evapotranspiration (ET) increase. The latter, along with the lack of snowmelt in the warm EoC, causes surface water and groundwater storages to significantly decrease in summer, with groundwater showing the highest rates of decrease. These changes result in more ephemeral EoC streams with more focused flow and increased storage in the mainstem of the river network during the summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal persistence of postfire flood hazards under present and future climate conditions in southern Arizona, USA

Changes to soil hydraulic properties that reduce infiltration capacity following fire can increase flash flood risks. These risks are exacerbated by rainfall intensification associated with a warming climate. However, the potential effects of climate-change-driven rainfall intensification on postfire floods remain largely unexplored. Using rainfall and runoff observations from a 49.4 km 2 watershed in southern Arizona, USA, and a hydrologic model (KINEROS2), we examined the temporal evolution following a historic fire of three crucial hydrologic parameters: soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sp ), net capillary drive (G p ), and hydraulic roughness (n c ). We explored how the effect of fire on these parameters may influence peak flow under future climate scenarios derived from CMIP6, specifically the medium emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Results demonstrate an increase in K sp from 11 mm h −1 in the first postfire year to 60 mm h −1 in postfire year 3. G p similarly increased from 19 mm in the first postfire year to 30 mm in the third, while nc was relatively constant. The highest simulated Q p occurred in the first postfire year. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the likelihood of a 100-year flood is projected to be twice as large by the middle of the century relative to its historical magnitude. Simulations further indicate that the maximum expected discharge associated with a postfire flood, as derived from historical data, could be triggered by a 10-year rainstorm under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by the late century. Simulations also demonstrate that rainfall intensification will lead to greater persistence of elevated flood hazards following fire by the late century under both the SSP2-4.5 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-based analysis of solute transport and potential carbon mineralization in the active layer of a hillslope underlain by permafrost with seasonal variability and climate change

Permafrost carbon, stored in frozen organic matter across vast Arctic and sub-Arctic regions, represents a substantial and increasingly vulnerable carbon reservoir. As global temperatures rise, the accelerated thawing of permafrost releases greenhouse gases, exacerbating climate change. However, freshly thawed permafrost carbon may also experience lateral transport by groundwater flow to surface water recipients such as rivers and lakes, increasing the terrestrial-to-aquatic transfer of permafrost carbon. Mobilization and subsurface transport mechanisms are poorly understood and not accounted for in global climate models, leading to high uncertainties in the predictions of the permafrost carbon feedback. Here, we focus on a hillslope in Endalen Valley, Svalbard, as a representative example of a high-Arctic hillslope underlain by continuous permafrost. We analyze solute transport in the form of a non-reactive tracer representing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) using a physics-based numerical model with the objective to study governing cryotic and hydrodynamic transport mechanisms relevant for warming permafrost regions. We first analyze transport times for DOC pools at different locations within the active layer under present-day climatic conditions and proceed to study susceptibility for deeper ancient carbon release in the upper permafrost due to thaw under different warming scenarios. Results suggest that DOC in the active layer near the permafrost table experiences rapid lateral transport upon thaw due to saturated conditions and lateral flow, while DOC close to the ground surface experiences slower transport due to flow in unsaturated soil. Deeper permafrost carbon release exhibits vastly different transport behaviors depending on warming and thaw rate. Gradual warming leads to small fractions of DOC being mobilized every year, while the majority moves vertically through percolation and cryosuction. Abrupt thaw resulting from a single very warm year leads to faster lateral transport times, similar to active layer DOC released in saturated conditions. Lastly, we analyze the potential susceptibility of DOC to mineralization to CO 2 prior to export due to soil moisture and temperature conditions. We find that high liquid saturation during transport coincides with very low mineralization rates and potentially inhibits mineralization into CO 2 before export. Overall, the results highlight the importance of subsurface hydrologic and thermal conditions for the retention and lateral export of permafrost carbon by subsurface flow.

Hamm, Alexandra [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden)] (ORCID:↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate Model Output Rewriter

The Climate Model Output Rewriter (CMOR) software was first developed by LLNL’s PCMDI program in early 2000s and was formally released with v1.0 (July 2006), v2.0 (January 2011), and v3.1(June 2016). CMOR is used to produce Climate and Forecast Convention (http://cfconventions.org/) CF-compliant netCDF files, in the standard format required to satisfy the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The software has been used across multiple phases of the Earth System Modeling (ESM) project CMIP (CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6, and planned use in CMIP7) along with numerous parallel projects focused on preparation observations for use in model evaluation (obs4MIPs) and forcing datasets (input4MIPs) to guide ESM simulations to meet strict experimental protocols. More information can be obtained from the CMOR website and code repositories: https://cmor.llnl.gov/; https://github.com/pcmdi/cmor; https://github.com/PCMDI/cmor3_documentation The ESM variable definitions used as input for CMOR can also be viewed in code repositories: https://github.com/PCMDI/cmip3-cmor-tables/; https://github.com/PCMDI/cmip5-cmor-tables/; https://github.com/PCMDI/cmip6-cmor-tables/

Mauzey, ChristopherF↗
NASA NTRS1973

Numerical experiments in climate stability.

Two semiempirical climate models are formulated as time-dependent problems in order to study the stability of their asymptotic steady state equilibrium solutions to perturbations in internal (in this case, initial) conditions. For fixed external conditions the time-dependent versions of these models exhibit fully transitive behavior to positive perturbations in initial conditions, slight intransivity to negative perturbations up to -18 K, and an ice-covered earth regime is obtained for extremely large negative perturbations in initial temperatures (below -18 K). The parametrization found to be most critical in these models is the albedo-temperature coupling, especially in tropical regions. The temperature albedo parametrization from an intransitive climate model used in a time-dependent form of one of the preceding models is found to be highly sensitive to negative perturbations in both internal and external conditions. Numerical experimentation with these semiempirical models shows the important role of the tropics in maintaining the equilibrium climate and suggests that the radiation balance in equatorial latitudes might have a controlling influence on the equatorward extent of the polar ice cap.

Schneider, S. H.↗
NASA NTRS1975

The evolution of climate

A quantitative evaluation is made of the climatic effects of polar wandering plus continental drift in order to determine wether this mechanism alone could explain the deterioration of climate that occurred from the warmth of Mesozoic time to the ice age conditions of the late Cenozoic. By way of procedure, to investigate the effect of the changing geography of the past on climate Adem's thermodynamic model was selected. The application of the model is discussed and preliminary results are given.

Donn, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Stratospheric aerosols and climatic change

Generated primarily by volcanic explosions, a layer of submicron silicate particles and particles made of concentrated sulfuric acids solution is present in the stratosphere. Flights through the stratosphere may be a future source of stratospheric aerosols, since the effluent from supersonic transports contains sulfurous gases (which will be converted to H2SO4) while the exhaust from Space Shuttles contains tiny aluminum oxide particles. Global heat balance calculations have shown that the stratospheric aerosols have made important contributions to some climatic changes. In the present paper, accurate radiative transfer calculations of the globally-averaged surface temperature (T) are carried out to estimate the sensitivity of the climate to changes in the number of stratospheric aerosols. The results obtained for a specified model atmosphere, including a vertical profile of the aerosols, indicate that the climate is unlikely to be affected by supersonic transports and Space Shuttles, during the next decades.

Baldwin, B.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Fourth National Aeronautics and Space Administration Weather and Climate Program Science Review

The NASA Weather and Climate Program has two major thrusts. The first involves the development of experimental and prototype operational satellite systems, sensors, and space facilities for monitoring and understanding the atmosphere. The second thrust involves basic scientific investigation aimed at studying the physical and chemical processes which control weather and climate. This fourth science review concentrated on the scientific research rather than the hardware development aspect of the program. These proceedings contain 65 papers covering the three general areas: severe storms and local weather research, global weather, and climate.

Kreins, E. R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Stochastic modeling of the time-advanced equations for climate dynamics

Long term, climatologically significant statistical properties of the atmospheric component of the climate system are examined in an effort to correctly and efficiently incorporate this component into larger models for climate that include oceanic and cryospheric influences and deal realistically with climate replication. The magnetic of the unpredictable (noise) component of long term atmospheric behavior is also studied in order to develop the potential for viable climatological forecasting.

Laurmann, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Stratospheric aerosols and climatic change

Stratospht1ic sulfuric acid particles scatter and absorb sunlight and they scatter, absorb and emit terrestrial thermal radiation. These interactions play a role in the earth's radiation balance and therefore affect climate. The stratospheric aerosols are perturbed by volcanic injection of SO2 and ash, by aircraft injection of SO2, by rocket exhaust of Al2O3 and by tropospheric mixing of particles and pollutant SO2 and COS. In order to assess the effects of these perturbations on climate, the effects of the aerosols on the radiation balance must be understood and in order to understand the radiation effects the properties of the aerosols must be known. The discussion covers the aerosols' effect on the radiation balance. It is shown that the aerosol size distribution controls whether the aerosols will tend to warm or cool the earth's surface. Calculations of aerosol properties, including size distribution, for various perturbation sources are carried out on the basis of an aerosol model. Calculations are also presented of the climatic impact of perturbed aerosols due to volcanic eruptions and Space Shuttle flights.

Toon, O. B.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The effect of ground hydrology on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

A zonally averaged climate model is used to investigate the effects of different evaporation parameterizations on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations. The model is based on the annual mean zonally averaged hemispheric climate model of Ohring and Adler (1978), with some modifications on the heating parameterizations. The dynamic model utilizes the two-level quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equations. The heating processes are related to solar radiation, long-wave radiation, convection, evaporation, latent heat release, and ocean transport. Evaporation parameterization has been improved by using a nonlinear formulation in which the Bowen ratio is determined by the vertical gradients of water vapor and temperature near the earth's surface.

Chow, S.-H.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A seasonal climate model for earth

A simple seasonal climate model for earth is developed on the basis of a few terms extracted from monthly and zonally averaged climatic data fields represented in latitude by Legendre polynomials and in time by Fourier series. This simple, physically motivated model accounts for the gross features of the present zonally averaged seasonal climate (root mean square error of two deg C). The sensitivities of the seasonal model and a corresponding mean annual model are approximately equal if ice and snow lines (for albedo purposes) are attached to certain mean-annual and instantaneous isotherms. More dynamics (in particular, cryospheric) are needed in the seasonal model to explain the relationship between glacial rhythms and changes in the earth's orbital elements.

North, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

ICEX: Ice and Climate Experiment. Report of science and applications working group

The Ice and Climate Experiment (ICEX), a proposed program of coordinated investigations of the ice and snow masses of the Earth (the "cryosphere") is described. These investigations are to be carried out with the help of satellite, aircraft, and surface based observations. Measurements derived from the investigations will be applied to an understanding of the role of the cryosphere in the system that determines the Earth's climate, to a better prediction of the responses of the ice and snow to climatic change, to studies of the basic nature of ice forms and ice dynamics, and to the development of operational techniques for assisting such activities in the polar regions as transportation, exploitation of natural resources, and petroleum exploration and production. A high-inclination satellite system with a set of remote-sensing instruments specially tailored to the task of observing the important features of snow, sea ice, and the ice sheets of Greenland and the Antarctic is to be used to record the near-simultaneous observations of multiple geophysical parameters by complementary sensors.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1980

Atmospheric aerosols and climate

The impact of terrestrial aerosols on the earth's climate and solar and infrared radiation budget are considered. Attention is given to the optical properties of aerosols, that is, optical depth, the single scattering albedo, and the asymmetry parameter, and to the relation between the optical depth and surface temperature for tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols. Also considered are experimental projects to determine the single scattering albedo, as well as the optical properties of natural aerosols such as sea salt, soil, and sulfates, and their variability. In addition, the impact of volcanic activity and the question of whether aerosols cause climatic warming or cooling are discussed, and the available observational evidence linking aerosols and climate is reviewed.

Toon, O. B.↗