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Post-fire time series photos from five sites across the Oak Creek watershed, Washington

This dataset supports a broader study examining wildfire impacts on hydrologic connectivity across 5 sites within the Oak Creek watershed and the resulting biogeochemical impacts. Sites were selected using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) hydrologic model to identify locations with varying groundwater contributions and hydrologic responses across different burn severity scenarios. The Retreat Fire burned from July 23 to August 2, 2024, affecting all five sites. This dataset provides time series game camera photos, while the broader study includes continuous water quality monitoring, biogeochemical sampling of water and soils, precipitation data, and organic matter analysis. The other data types and additional metadata (include site environmental information) can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018020. Because this study is ongoing, this data package will be updated regularly to include newly collected photos. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) readme; (5) field protocol; and (6) folders of game camera photos. The game camera photos are organized by site with subfolders by month of collection. The field metadata contains a subset of the information collected that is most relevant to photo-processing. The full set of field metadata can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018020. All files are .csv, .pdf, or .jpg.

Burn severity↗

A hierarchical analysis of the impact of methodological decisions on statistical downscaling of daily precipitation and air temperatures

Despite the widespread application of statistical downscaling tools, uncertainty remains regarding the role of model formulation in determining model skill for daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), and precipitation occurrence and intensity. Impacts of several key aspects of statistical transfer function form on model skill are evaluated using a framework resistant to model overspecification. We focus on: (a) model structure: simple (generalized linear models, GLMs) versus complex (artificial neural networks, ANNs) models. (b) Predictor selection: Fixed number of predictors chosen a priori versus stepwise selection of predictors and inclusion of grid point values versus predictors derived from application of principal components analysis (PCA) to spatial fields. We also examine the influence of domain size on model performance. For precipitation downscaling, we consider the role of the threshold used to characterize a wet day and apply three approaches (Poisson and Gamma distributions in GLM and ANN) to downscale wet-day precipitation amounts. While no downscaling formulation is optimal for all predictands and at 10 locations representing diverse U.S. climates, and due to the exclusion of variance inflation all of the downscaling formulations fail to reproduce the range of observed variability, models with larger suites of prospective predictors generally have higher skill. For temperature downscaling, ANNs generally outperform GLM, with greater improvements for T min than T max . Furthermore, use of PCA-derived predictors does not systematically improve model skill, but does improve skill for temperature extremes. Model skill for precipitation occurrence generally increases as the wet-day threshold increases and models using PCA-derived predictors tend to outperform those based on grid cell predictors. Each model for wet-day precipitation intensity overestimates annual total precipitation and underestimates the proportion derived from extreme precipitation events, but ANN-based models and those with larger predictor suites tend to have the smallest bias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid design of top-performing metal-organic frameworks with qualitative representations of building blocks

Abstract Data-driven materials design often encounters challenges where systems possess qualitative (categorical) information. Specifically, representing Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) through different building blocks poses a challenge for designers to incorporate qualitative information into design optimization, and leads to a combinatorial challenge, with large number of MOFs that could be explored. In this work, we integrated Latent Variable Gaussian Process (LVGP) and Multi-Objective Batch-Bayesian Optimization (MOBBO) to identify top-performing MOFs adaptively, autonomously, and efficiently. We showcased that our method (i) requires no specific physical descriptors and only uses building blocks that construct the MOFs for global optimization through qualitative representations, (ii) is application and property independent, and (iii) provides an interpretable model of building blocks with physical justification. By searching only ~1% of the design space, LVGP-MOBBO identified all MOFs on the Pareto front and 97% of the 50 top-performing designs for the CO 2 working capacity and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Carbon storage cost modeling for the offshore Gulf of Mexico

Groundbreaking for geologic carbon storage (GCS) projects in the offshore Gulf of Mexico is imminent, and there is great interest in utilizing this region for GCS projects. Offshore saline reservoirs provide a significant and accessible resource for GCS. However, conducting GCS in the offshore environment will pose distinct challenges pertaining to site selection, operations, infrastructure use, and monitoring compared to operating onshore that ultimately affect technoeconomic assessment of offshore GCS projects. Carbon storage and transport costs are critical to project developers looking to deploy carbon storage in the offshore environment. We present CO2_S_COM_Offshore, a model developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) as a screening-level offshore saline GCS cost modeling tool. Based on NETL’s widely used CO2_S_COM cost model for onshore saline CS, CO2_S_COM_Offshore enables technoeconomic analysis of GCS in offshore areas. This model comprehensively incorporates multiple facets of offshore GCS projects, from regional evaluation and site selection to permitting, transport, operations, monitoring, site closure, and decommissioning. In general, the model can explore the cost implications for potential offshore GCS project(s) by enabling the user to change several project operational and financial attribute configurations. Key inputs include offshore storage formation options, CO2 injection rate and duration, infrastructure types, monitoring intensity, project financing, and post-injection site care duration. Supporting cost algorithms within CO2_S_COM_Offshore were compiled utilizing S&P Global’ s QUE$TORTM cost estimation software alongside a variety of open-source scientific literature. In addition to reviewing key model components, we discuss several sensitivity analyses, input variabilities, and results on analysis of break-even CO2 price required by a project based on different regulation/policy and operational scenarios for the offshore Gulf of Mexico. These results indicate the value of modeling offshore GCS specifically, and the potential of offshore GCS within a decarbonization value chain. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Mark-Moser, Mackenzie K.↗

Optimizing Optical Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in Active Galactic Nuclei Light Curves: Fourier versus Bayesian Periodicity Detection

Simulations predict that supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) will exhibit periodic brightness variations that may exceed the stochastic variability intrinsic to active galactic nuclei (AGN). In this paper, we simulate SMBHBs with damped random walk (DRW) AGN variability and an added sinusoidal signal from the orbital motion, and test three methods—a generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram (GLSP), a nested Bayesian sampler (NBS), and a weighted wavelet z-transform (or WWZ)—to determine which is best at recovering the periodicity. Our simulated light curves follow the properties of the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (or CRTS), Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) to best inform current and future SMBHB searches. We map a broad range of parameter space and identify which DRW-only light curves best mimic periodicity and pass each method’s model selection. The NBS performs best at detecting periodicity and filtering out DRW-only light curves. Combined candidate selection with both the NBS and GLSP significantly reduces false-positive rates (FPRs) with marginal impact on true-positive rates (TPRs). With this joint model selection pipeline, we find the lowest FPRs in ZTF-like simulations and the highest detection rates in LSST-like simulations. Using a modified computation of the false-alarm probability with GLSP, we efficiently triage LSST AGN light curves (∼10 7 light curves in ∼10–30 hr) and achieve TPRs and FPRs of ∼40% and ∼0.5%, respectively.

Banaszak, Sebastian M. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashvill↗

Crystal plasticity model of residual stress in additive manufacturing using the element elimination and reactivation method

Selective laser melting is receiving increasing interest as an additive manufacturing technique. Residual stresses induced by the large temperature gradients and inhomogeneous cooling process can favour the generation of cracks. In this work, a crystal plasticity finite element model is developed to simulate the formation of residual stresses and to understand the correlation between plastic deformation, grain orientation and residual stresses in the additive manufacturing process. The temperature profile and grain structure from thermal-fluid flow and grain growth simulations are implemented into the crystal plasticity model. An element elimination and reactivation method is proposed to model the melting and solidification and to reinitialize state variables, such as the plastic deformation, in the reactivated elements. The accuracy of this method is judged against previous method based on the stiffness degradation of liquid regions by comparing the plastic deformation as a function of time induced by thermal stresses. The method is used to investigate residual stresses parallel and perpendicular to the laser scan direction, and the correlation with the maximum Schmid factor of the grains along those directions. The magnitude of the residual stress can be predicted as a function of the depth, grain orientation and position with respect to the molten pool. The simulation results are directly comparable to X-ray diffraction experiments and stress–strain curves.

316 stainless steel↗

Modeling the AC Power Flow Equations with Optimally Compact Neural Networks: Application to Unit Commitment

Nonlinear power flow constraints render a variety of power system optimization problems computationally intractable. Emerging research shows, however, that the nonlinear AC power flow equations can be successfully modeled using neural networks. These neural networks can be exactly transformed into mixed integer linear programs and embedded inside challenging optimization problems, thus replacing nonlinearities that are intractable for many applications with tractable piecewise linear approximations. Such approaches, though, suffer from an explosion of the number of binary variables needed to represent the neural network. Accordingly, this paper develops a technique for training an "optimally compact'' neural network, i.e., one that can represent the power flow equations with a sufficiently high degree of accuracy while still maintaining a tractable number of binary variables. We demonstrate the use of this neural network as an approximator of the nonlinear power flow equations by embedding it in the AC unit commitment problem, transforming the problem from a mixed integer nonlinear program into a more manageable mixed integer linear program. We use the 14-, 57-, and 89-bus networks as test cases and compare the AC-feasibility of commitment decisions resulting from the neural network, DC, and linearized power flow approximations. Our results show that the neural network model outperforms both the DC and linearized power flow approximations when embedded in the unit commitment problem. The neural network formulation most often selects a feasible unit commitment schedule, and furthermore, it only s

AC power flow↗

The Role of Radiation Therapy in Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Hodgkin Lymphoma: Guidelines From the International Lymphoma Radiation Oncology Group

Relapsed and refractory Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) challenges clinicians to devise treatment strategies that are effective and safe. This problem is particularly prominent in an era when de-escalation trials are designed to minimize therapeutic toxicities in both early- and advanced-stage disease. Radiation therapy is the single most effective treatment modality for HL, and its integration into salvage regimens, or its independent use in select patients, must be understood to maximize our success in treating these patients. The complexity of treating relapsed or refractory HL derives from the spectrum of primary treatment approaches currently in use that creates heterogeneity in both treatment exposure and the potential toxicities of salvage therapy. Patients can have relapsed or refractory disease after limited or aggressive primary therapy (with or without radiation therapy), at early or delayed time points, with limited or extensive disease volumes, and with varying degrees of residual morbidity from primary therapy. Their response to salvage systemic therapy can be partial or complete, and the use of consolidative stem cell transplantation is variably applied. New biologics and immunotherapeutic approaches have broadened but also complicated salvage treatment approaches. Through all of this, radiation therapy remains an integral component of treatment for many patients, but it must be used effectively and judiciously. The purpose of this review is to describe the different treatment scenarios and provide guidance for radiation dose, volume, and timing in patients with relapsed or refractory HL.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

SU-E-T-116: Dose Response in the Treatment of Unresectable Cholangiocarcinoma with Yttrium-90 Microspheres

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to assess the dose response of radioembolization using yttrium-90 (Y-90) microspheres in patients treated for unresectable cholangiocarcinoma. This study utilized partition dosimetry model for the dose calculation. The results show survival benefit with dose escalation. Methods: Between February 2009 and March 2013, ten patients with pathology proven unresectable cholangiocarcinoma were radioembolized with Y-90 microspheres. Patients underwent initial pre-treatment angiographic assessment for blood flow and 99mTc- MAA for lung shunt evaluation. Activity of Y-90 administration was calculated using the Body Surface Area (BSA) and target volumes which were determined by contouring the pre-treatment MRI/CT images using a radiation therapy treatment planning system. Medical Internal Radiation Dose (MIRD) method was used to assess the dosimetric results of Y90. Partition model based on the tumor to-liver activity uptake estimated from pretreatment 99mTc- MAA study was used to calculate the dose delivered to the target. The variables assessed included: administered dose, toxicity based on clinical changes, imaging based tumor response, and survival. Results: Ten patients were radioembolized with Y-90 microspheres to either one hepatic lobe or both left and right lobes. Patients were stratified by dose. Four patients who received dose greater than 140Gy (p < 0.05) all survived. The corresponding activity they received was greater than 35 mCi. Six out of ten patients died of disease with median survival of 18 weeks (range 12–81wks). Conclusion: Given the growing body of data for Y-90 microspheres in the context of cholangiocarcinoma, radioembolization may become an important treatment modality for an appropriately selected group of patients. Our study further substantiates past studies and shows additional evidence of a survival benefit with dose escalation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Experimental study of airpath electrification in an opposed-piston two stroke (OP2S) engine architecture

The opposed-piston two stroke (OP2S) engine shows potential as an alternative engine architecture to the conventional four stroke engine due to its high-power density, thermal efficiency, and versatile airpath management system. Since the pistons of a two-stroke engine do not pump the air into and out of the cylinder like in a four-stroke engine, the selection of the air induction devices and airpath actuators becomes critical to optimize engine performance. Both the pumping losses and the in-cylinder combustion process can be affected by the scavenging process in a two-stroke engine. Therefore, this study compares two different airpath configurations for the same family of OP2S engines and investigates performance metrics like scavenging control, pumping work, net indicated and brake efficiencies, and engine-out emissions associated with each airpath. Data was collected on a 3.2 L, two-cylinder OP2S engine with an electrically assisted turbocharger (EAT) and a 4.9 L displacement, three-cylinder engine with a variable geometry turbocharger (VGT) and a supercharger. The experiments consisted of speed and load sweeps for both engines at the same operating conditions to compare scavenge control in both architectures. For the three-cylinder layout, the SE sweep range was much higher, and the intake pressure could be independently varied with air flowrate, thus providing more flexibility for scavenging control. The supercharger and the VGT usage was optimized based on its efficiency map and thus, this layout had lower pumping losses compared to the EAT. The two-cylinder engine had a higher overall SE as compared to the three-cylinder engine, but the intake pressure and air flowrate could not be decoupled, leading to over scavenging and increased short circuiting of fresh charge into the exhaust.

Bhatt, Ankur [Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA↗

Affinity-matured homotypic interactions induce spectrum of PfCSP structures that influence protection from malaria infection

The generation of high-quality antibody responses to Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) circumsporozoite protein (PfCSP), the primary surface antigen of Pf sporozoites, is paramount to the development of an effective malaria vaccine. Here we present an in-depth structural and functional analysis of a panel of potent antibodies encoded by the immunoglobulin heavy chain variable (IGHV) gene IGHV3-33, which is among the most prevalent and potent antibody families induced in the anti-PfCSP immune response and targets the Asn-Ala-Asn-Pro (NANP) repeat region. Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) reveals a remarkable spectrum of helical antibody-PfCSP structures stabilized by homotypic interactions between tightly packed fragments antigen binding (Fabs), many of which correlate with somatic hypermutation. We demonstrate a key role of these mutated homotypic contacts for high avidity binding to PfCSP and in protection from Pf malaria infection. Together, these data emphasize the importance of anti-homotypic affinity maturation in the frequent selection of IGHV3–33 antibodies and highlight key features underlying the potent protection of this antibody family.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Understanding Growth Dynamics and Yield Prediction of Sorghum Using High Temporal Resolution UAV Imagery Time Series and Machine Learning

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) carrying multispectral cameras are increasingly being used for high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) of above-ground traits of crops to study genetic diversity, resource use efficiency and responses to abiotic or biotic stresses. There is significant unexplored potential for repeated data collection through a field season to reveal information on the rates of growth and provide predictions of the final yield. Generating such information early in the season would create opportunities for more efficient in-depth phenotyping and germplasm selection. This study tested the use of high-resolution time-series imagery (5 or 10 sampling dates) to understand the relationships between growth dynamics, temporal resolution and end-of-season above-ground biomass (AGB) in 869 diverse accessions of highly productive (mean AGB = 23.4 Mg/Ha), photoperiod sensitive sorghum. Canopy surface height (CSM), ground cover (GC), and five common spectral indices were considered as features of the crop phenotype. Spline curve fitting was used to integrate data from single flights into continuous time courses. Random Forest was used to predict end-of-season AGB from aerial imagery, and to identify the most informative variables driving predictions. Improved prediction of end-of-season AGB (RMSE reduction of 0.24 Mg/Ha) was achieved earlier in the growing season (10 to 20 days) by leveraging early- and mid-season measurement of the rate of change of geometric and spectral features. Early in the season, dynamic traits describing the rates of change of CSM and GC predicted end-of-season AGB best. Late in the season, CSM on a given date was the most influential predictor of end-of-season AGB. The power to predict end-of-season AGB was greatest at 50 days after planting, accounting for 63% of variance across this very diverse germplasm collection with modest error (RMSE 1.8 Mg/ha). End-of-season AGB could be predicted equally well when spline fitting was performed on data collected from five flights versus 10 flights over the growing season. This demonstrates a more valuable and efficient approach to using UAVs for HTP, while also proposing strategies to add further value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermodynamics-guided machine learning model for predicting convective boundary layer height and its multi-site applicability

Accurate estimation of convective boundary layer height (CBLH) is vital for weather, climate, and air quality modeling. Machine learning (ML) shows promise in CBLH prediction, but input parameter selection often lacks physical grounding, limiting generalizability. This study introduces a novel ML framework for CBLH prediction, integrating thermodynamic constraints and the diurnal CBLH cycle as an implicit physical guide. Boundary layer growth is modeled as driven by surface heat fluxes and atmospheric heat absorption represented with the low tropospheric stability, using the diurnal cycle as input and output. TPOT and AutoKeras are employed to select optimal models, validated against Doppler lidar-derived CBLH data, achieving an R 2 of 0.84 across untrained years. Comparisons of eddy covariance (ECOR) and energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) flux measurements show the same prediction capability. Models trained on the ARM SGP C1 site with ECOR data and tested at E37 and E39 yield R 2 values of 0.79 and 0.81, respectively, demonstrating their adaptability. The ML model trained with all sites' data slightly enhances the performance compared with ML models trained over single-site data. The interquartile range for predicted CBLH is consistently narrower than that for DL-derived CBLH, reflecting lower variability in predicted CBLH compared to DL-derived CBLH, which is influenced by additional factors, which are not well represented with the model inputs. The model's generalizability across multiple sites at the ARM SGP site demonstrates its potential for transfer to greater distances, offering a scalable approach for enhancing boundary layer parameterization in atmospheric models.

Chu, Yufei [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)]↗

A priori analysis on deep learning of subgrid-scale parameterizations for Kraichnan turbulence

In the present study, we investigate different data-driven parameterizations for large eddy simulation of two-dimensional turbulence in the a priori settings. These models utilize resolved flow field variables on the coarser grid to estimate the subgrid-scale stresses. We use data-driven closure models based on localized learning that employs a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network with point-to-point mapping and neighboring stencil data mapping, and convolutional neural network fed by data snapshots of the whole domain. The performance of these data-driven closure models is measured through a probability density function and is compared with the dynamic Smagorinksy model (DSM). The quantitative performance is evaluated using the cross-correlation coefficient between the true and predicted stresses. We analyze different frameworks in terms of the amount of training data, selection of input and output features, their characteristics in modeling with accuracy, and training and deployment computational time. We also demonstrate computational gain that can be achieved using the intelligent eddy viscosity model that learns eddy viscosity computed by the DSM instead of subgrid-scale stresses. Here, we detail the hyperparameters optimization of these models using the grid search algorithm.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantitative-qualitative assessments of environmental causal networks to support the DPSIR framework in the decision-making process

Highlights: • DSPIR framework is extended for supporting the decision-making process. • Environmental causal networks are used instead of unidirectional causalities. • Quantitative and qualitative data are combined to improve environmental assessments. • Decision-makers can choose management actions to reach favorable future scenarios. - Abstract: The DPSIR framework helps to identify and situate stressors, drivers and pressure variables within a dynamic environmental process composed of cause-effect relations. However, an important aspect related to its structural deficiency implies the use of unidirectional causalities between variables. In this work, we extend the capacities of the DPSIR framework by addressing three important points. Firstly, causal networks are built instead of unidirectional causalities, the former based on paths represented by sequences of cause-effect relations between involved variables. These paths are derived from the population growth as a driving force variable, along with CO{sub 2} emissions, waste, water and loss of vegetation cover as pressure variables. Trends of these paths are combined to determine and quantitatively assess a global environmental state trend whose impacts on the environment require corrective management actions as a response. Secondly, quantitative assessments of environmental trends are transformed into fuzzy-qualitative data to facilitate their interpretation. Thirdly, a method based on weighted environmental management actions is presented to decision-makers who aspire to change current path trends in order to approach desirable scenarios similar to those put forth by the OECD outlook towards 2030. The results obtained applying this framework to the State of Morelos, México, show that it can be a useful support tool in the selection and monitoring of management actions capable of reaching favorable environmental trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detect and correct bias in multi-site neuroimaging datasets

The desire to train complex machine learning algorithms and to increase the statistical power in association studies drives neuroimaging research to use ever-larger datasets. The most obvious way to increase sample size is by pooling scans from independent studies. However, simple pooling is often ill-advised as selection, measurement, and confounding biases may creep in and yield spurious correlations. In this work, we combine 35,320 magnetic resonance images of the brain from 17 studies to examine bias in neuroimaging. In the first experiment, Name That Dataset, we provide empirical evidence for the presence of bias by showing that scans can be correctly assigned to their respective dataset with 71.5% accuracy. Given such evidence, we take a closer look at confounding bias, which is often viewed as the main shortcoming in observational studies. In practice, we neither know all potential confounders nor do we have data on them. Hence, we model confounders as unknown, latent variables. Kolmogorov complexity is then used to decide whether the confounded or the causal model provides the simplest factorization of the graphical model. Finally, we present methods for dataset harmonization and study their ability to remove bias in imaging features. In particular, we propose an extension of the recently introduced ComBat algorithm to control for global variation across image features, inspired by adjusting for unknown population stratification in genetics. Overall, our results demonstrate that harmonization can reduce dataset-specific information in image features. Further, confounding bias can be reduced and even turned into a causal relationship. However, harmonization also requires caution as it can easily remove relevant subject-specific information. Code is available at https://github.com/ai-med/Dataset-Bias.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparing Convective Self‐Aggregation in Idealized Models to Observed Moist Static Energy Variability Near the Equator

Abstract Idealized convection‐permitting simulations of radiative‐convective equilibrium have become a popular tool for understanding the physical processes leading to horizontal variability of tropical water vapor and rainfall. However, the applicability of idealized simulations to nature is still unclear given that important processes are typically neglected, such as lateral water vapor advection by extratropical intrusions, or interactive ocean coupling. Here, we exploit spectral analysis to compactly summarize the multiscale processes supporting convective aggregation. By applying this framework to high‐resolution reanalysis data and satellite observations in addition to idealized simulations, we compare convective‐aggregation processes across horizontal scales and data sets. The results affirm the validity of the radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations as an analogy to the real world. Column moist static energy tendencies share similar signs and scale selectivity in convection‐permitting models and observations: Radiation increases variance at wavelengths above 1,000 km, while advection damps variance across wavelengths, and surface fluxes mostly reduce variance between 1,000 and 10,000 km.

Beucler, Tom↗