OpenStudio-Variability-Gem v1.0
This gem contains methods to introduce variability to extend core OpenStudio SDK. The term "variability" refers to changes in building systems efficiency, operation, or controls, which are non-routine events.
Li, Han↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “variability”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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OpenStudio-Occupant-Variability-Gem v1.0
This gem contains methods to introduce occupant-related variability to extend core OpenStudio SDK. The goal of introducing the variability is to improve the assumptions related to stochastic occupant movement, occupant-related lighting and electric equipment, and thermostat set points schedules in traditional OpenStudio and EnergyPlus models.
Li, Han↗
Parallel Variable Population Multi-Objective Optimizer (pvpmoo) v1.0
This is a parallel variable population multi-objective optimizer with an adaptive unified differential evolution algorithm or a genetic algorithm. It can also be used for single objective optimization. Some features of this code include: 1) The population size varies from generation to generation to save the total # of objective function evaluations. 2) The population is uniformly distributed to a number of parallel processors for simultaneous objective function evaluation. 3) The objective function evaluation can be attained from an external simulation program with control variables in its input file and objectives calculated from its output files. 4) The optimizer includes an adaptive unified differential evolution algorithm and a real value genetic algorithm. The parameters in the unified differential evolution algorithm can be chosen to attain any mutation schemes in the published literature.
Qiang, Ji↗
Spatial Variability of Winds and HRRR–NCEP Model Error Statistics at Three Doppler-Lidar Sites in the Wind-Energy Generation Region of the Columbia River Basin
Annually and seasonally averaged wind profiles from three Doppler lidars were gathered from sites in the Columbia River basin of east-central Oregon and Washington, a major region of wind-energy production, for the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) experiment. The profile data are used to quantify the spatial variability of wind flows in this area of complex terrain, to assess the HRRR-NCEP model's ability to capture spatial and temporal variability of wind profiles, and to evaluate model errors. Annually averaged measured wind speed differences over the 70-km extent of the lidar measurements reached 1 m s -1 within the wind-turbine rotor layer, and 2 m s -1 for 200-500 m AGL. Stronger wind speeds in the lowest 500 m occurred at sites higher in elevation, farther from the river, and farther west - closer to the Cascade Mountain barrier. Validating against the lidar data, the HRRR model underestimated strong wind speeds (>12 m s -1 ) and, consequently, their frequency of occurrence, especially at the two lowest-elevation sites, producing annual low biases in rotor-layer wind speed of 0.5 m s -1 . The RMSE between measured and modeled winds at all sites was about 3 m s -1 and did not degrade significantly with forecast lead time. The nature of the model errors was different for different seasons. Furthermore, although the three sites were located in the same basin terrain, the nature of the model errors was different at each site. Thus, if only one of the sites had been instrumented, different conclusions would have been drawn as to the major sources of model error, depending on where the measurements were made.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Doppler Lidar Measurements of Wind Variability and LLJ Properties in Central Oklahoma during the August 2017 Land–Atmosphere Feedback Experiment
Abstract Low-level jets (LLJs) are an important nocturnal source of wind energy in the U.S. Great Plains. An August 2017 lidar-based field-measurement campaign [the Land–Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE)] studied LLJs over the central SGP site in Oklahoma and found nearly equal occurrences of the usual southerly jets and postfrontal northeasterly jets—typically rare during this season—for an opportunity to compare the two types of LLJs during this month. Southerly winds were stronger than the northeasterlies by more than 4 m s −1 on average, reflecting a significantly higher frequency of winds stronger than 12 m s −1 . The analysis of this dataset has been expanded to other SGP Doppler-lidar sites to quantify the variability of winds and LLJ properties between sites of different land use. Geographic variations of winds over the study area were noted: on southerly wind nights, the winds blew stronger at the highest, westernmost sites by 2 m s −1 , whereas on the northeasterly flow nights, the easternmost sites had the strongest wind speeds. Lidar measurements at 5 sites during August 2017, contrasted to the 2016–21 summertime data, revealed unusual wind and LLJ conditions. Temporal hodographs using hourly averaged winds at multiple heights revealed unorganized behavior in the turbulent stable boundary layer (SBL) below the jet nose. Above the nose, some nights showed veering qualitatively similar to inertial oscillation (IO) behavior, but at amplitudes much smaller than expected for an IO, whereas other nights showed little veering. Vertical hodographs had a linear shape in the SBL, indicating little directional shear there, and veering above, resulting in a hook-shaped hodograph with height. Significance Statement Doppler-lidar measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) were used to quantify the variability of winds and low-level jet (LLJ) properties between five sites of different land use and wind regimes across this area. Knowledge of wind and LLJ structure and dynamics is important for many applications, and strong southerly LLJ winds at night are an important resource for wind energy. The analysis of multiyear (2016–21) summertime LLJ parameters provided insight into the LLJ climatology in this part of the Great Plains.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
How Well Can We Represent the Spectrum of Convective Clouds in a Climate Model? Comparisons between Internal Parameterization Variables and Radar Observations
Current climate models cannot resolve individual convective clouds, and hence parameterizations are needed. The primary goal of convective parameterization is to represent the bulk impact of convection on the gridbox-scale variables. Spectral convective parameterizations also aim to represent the key features of the subgrid-scale convective cloud field such as cloud-top-height distribution and in-cloud vertical velocities in addition to precipitation rates. Ground-based radar retrievals of these quantities have been made available at Darwin, Australia, permitting direct comparisons of internal parameterization variables and providing new observational references for further model development. A spectral convective parameterization [the convective cloud field model (CCFM)] is discussed, and its internal equation of motion is improved. Results from the ECHAM–HAM model in single-column mode using the CCFM and the bulk mass flux Tiedtke–Nordeng scheme are compared with the radar retrievals at Darwin. The CCFM is found to outperform the Tiedtke–Nordeng scheme for cloud-top-height and precipitation-rate distributions. Radar observations are further used to propose a modified CCFM configuration with an aerodynamic drag and reduced entrainment parameter, further improving both the convective cloud-top-height distribution (important for large-scale impact of convection) and the in-cloud vertical velocities (important for aerosol activation). This study provides a new development in the CCFM, improving the representation of convective cloud spectrum characteristics observed in Darwin. This is a step toward an improved representation of convection and ultimately of aerosol effects on convection. It also shows how long-term radar observations of convective cloud properties can help constrain parameters of convective parameterization schemes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Droplet Growth or Evaporation Does Not Buffer the Variability in Supersaturation in Clean Clouds
Abstract Water vapor supersaturation in clouds is a random variable that drives activation and growth of cloud droplets. The Pi Convection–Cloud Chamber generates a turbulent cloud with a microphysical steady state that can be varied from clean to polluted by adjusting the aerosol injection rate. The supersaturation distribution and its moments, e.g., mean and variance, are investigated for varying cloud microphysical conditions. High-speed and collocated Eulerian measurements of temperature and water vapor concentration are combined to obtain the temporally resolved supersaturation distribution. This allows quantification of the contributions of variances and covariances between water vapor and temperature. Results are consistent with expectations for a convection chamber, with strong correlation between water vapor and temperature; departures from ideal behavior can be explained as resulting from dry regions on the warm boundary, analogous to entrainment. The saturation ratio distribution is measured under conditions that show monotonic increase of liquid water content and decrease of mean droplet diameter with increasing aerosol injection rate. The change in liquid water content is proportional to the change in water vapor concentration between no-cloud and cloudy conditions. Variability in the supersaturation remains even after cloud droplets are formed, and no significant buffering is observed. Results are interpreted in terms of a cloud microphysical Damköhler number (Da), under conditions corresponding to , i.e., the slow-microphysics regime. This implies that clouds with very clean regions, such that is satisfied, will experience supersaturation fluctuations without them being buffered by cloud droplet growth. Significance Statement The saturation ratio (humidity) in clouds controls the growth rate and formation of cloud droplets. When air in a turbulent cloud mixes, the humidity varies in space and time throughout the cloud. This is important because it means cloud droplets experience different growth histories, thereby resulting in broader size distributions. It is often assumed that growth and evaporation of cloud droplets buffers out some of the humidity variations. Measuring these variations has been difficult, especially in the field. The purpose of this study is to measure the saturation ratio distribution in clouds with a range of conditions. We measure the in-cloud saturation ratio using a convection cloud chamber with clean to polluted cloud properties. We found in clouds with low concentrations of droplets that the variations in the saturation ratio are not suppressed.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The Changing Character of Twenty-First-Century Precipitation over the Western United States in the Variable-Resolution CESM
Abstract The changing characters of precipitation frequency and intensity have been comprehensively investigated from the recent historical period to the end of the twenty-first century over the western United States. Variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) ensemble simulations are applied with a fine grid resolution of ~0.25° over the study area. Simulations are forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, and greenhouse gas concentrations from the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. VR-CESM is shown to be effective at accurately capturing the spatial patterns of the historical precipitation climatology. The results of VR-CESM output provide significantly regional details with crucial enhancement of precipitation representations over complex terrain. In the Intermountain West and U.S. Southwest, a statistically significant increase in mean precipitation and rainy days through midcentury is observed, although this trend is tempered by the end of the century in response to a decrease in relative humidity. Over the Pacific Northwest, extreme precipitation events are observed to increase significantly as a result of increased cool season integrated vapor transport associated with a moistening of the cool seasons and drying through the warm seasons. In particular, extreme precipitation in this region appears to increase more rapidly than would be predicted by the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. No clear climate signal emerges in mean precipitation or extreme events in the majority of California, where the precipitation climatology is attributed to large interannual variabilities that are tied closely to ENSO patterns.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Representation of Modes of Variability in Six U.S. Climate Models
We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six U.S. climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in recent models [including those participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)] compared to previous versions. In particular, we examine the representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical stratosphere, and the dominant modes of extratropical variability, including the southern annular mode (SAM), the northern annular mode (NAM) [and the closely related North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)], and the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA). Where feasible, we explore the processes driving these improvements through the use of “intermediary” experiments that utilize model versions between CMIP3/5 and CMIP6 as well as targeted sensitivity experiments in which individual modeling parameters are altered. We find clear and systematic improvements in the MJO and QBO and in the teleconnection patterns associated with the PDO and ENSO. Some gains arise from better process representation, while others (e.g., the QBO) from higher resolution that allows for a greater range of interactions. Our results demonstrate that the incremental development processes in multiple climate model groups lead to more realistic simulations over time.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Decadal Thermal Variability of the Upper Southern Ocean: Zonal Asymmetry
Abstract As the major sink of anthropogenic heat, the Southern Ocean has shown quasi-symmetric, deep-reaching warming since the mid-twentieth century. In comparison, the shorter-term heat storage pattern of the Southern Ocean is more complex and has notable impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems. By analyzing observational datasets and climate model simulations, this study reveals that the Southern Ocean exhibits prominent decadal (>8 years) variability extending to ∼700-m depth and is characterized by out-of-phase changes in the Pacific and Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors. Changes in the Pacific sector are larger in magnitude than those in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors and dominate the total heat storage of the Southern Ocean on decadal time scales. Instead of heat uptake through surface heat fluxes, these asymmetric variations arise primarily from wind-driven heat redistribution. Pacemaker and preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) suggest that these variations in Southern Ocean winds arise primarily from natural variability of the tropical Pacific, as represented by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Through atmospheric teleconnection, the positive phase of the IPO gives rise to higher-than-normal sea level pressure and anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 50°–70°S band of the Pacific sector. These winds lead to warming of 0–700 m by driving the convergence of warm water. The opposite processes, involving cyclonic winds and upper-layer divergence, occur in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sector. These findings aid our understanding of the time-varying heat storage of the Southern Ocean and provide useful implications on initialized decadal climate prediction.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
Decadal Spiciness Variability in the Subtropical-Tropical Pacific in the CESM2 Large Ensemble
Tropical Pacific decadal variations impact weather and climate around the world and are also connected to variations in the global warming trend. The mechanisms driving these long-term modulations, particularly the role of subsurface ocean dynamics, are still debated. Here, we investigate the dynamics of spiciness (density-compensated temperature and salinity) anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific, which are hypothesized as a possible driving mechanism of decadal climate variability. Based on the analysis of 100 realizations from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), we demonstrate a coupling between the subtropics and the equatorial Pacific by propagating spiciness anomalies at decadal time scales. The CESM2-LE simulates spiciness variability along a subduction path from the subtropics to the equator with frequency spectra that show the highest power at low frequencies and a power decay proportional to a −4 slope for frequencies greater than 0.01 cycles per months, corresponding to periods smaller than ∼8.5 years. Signals that originate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) dominate and arrive with a larger magnitude at the equator compared to spiciness anomalies from the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Spiciness anomalies from the SH have shorter propagation times and are strengthened along their pathway as stochastic wind stress curl forcing generates anomalous baroclinic ocean pressure gradients. These pressure gradients generate spiciness anomalies via anomalous advection across climatological spiciness gradients in the SH. We conclude that the observed spiciness variance at decadal time scales is consistent with a forcing by stochastic wind variations that are low-pass filtered by ocean dynamics.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Assessing Tropical Cyclones’ Contribution to Precipitation over the Eastern United States and Sensitivity to the Variable-Resolution Domain Extent
Tropical cyclones (TCs) can subject an area to heavy precipitation for many hours, or even days, worsening the risk of flooding, which creates dangerous conditions for residents of the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. To study the representation of TC-related precipitation over the eastern United States in current-generation global climate models, a novel analysis methodology is developed to track TCs and extract their associated precipitation using an estimate of their dynamical outer size. This methodology is applied to three variable-resolution (VR) configurations of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), with high-resolution domains over the North Atlantic and one low-resolution conventional configuration, as well as to a combination of reanalysis and observational precipitation data. Metrics and diagnostics such as TC counts, intensities, outer storm sizes, and annual mean total and extreme precipitation are compared between the CAM5 simulations and reanalysis/observations. The high-resolution VR configurations outperform the global low-resolution configuration for all variables in the North Atlantic. Realistic TC intensities are produced by the VR configurations. The total North Atlantic TC counts are lower than observations but better than reanalysis.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Polarimetric Radar Variables in Snowfall at Ka- and W-Band Frequency Bands: A Comparative Analysis
Dual-frequency millimeter-wavelength radar observations in snowfall are analyzed in order to evaluate differences in conventional polarimetric radar variables such as differential reflectivity (ZDR) specific differential phase shift (K DP ) and linear depolarization ratio (LDR) at traditional cloud radar frequencies at Ka and W bands (~35 and ~94 GHz, correspondingly). Low radar beam elevation (~5°) measurements were performed at Oliktok Point, Alaska, with a scanning fully polarimetric radar operating in the horizontal–vertical polarization basis. This radar has the same gate spacing and very close beam widths at both frequencies, which largely alleviates uncertainties associated with spatial and temporal data matching. It is shown that observed Ka- and W-band Z DR differences are, on average, less than about 0.5 dB and do not have a pronounced trend as a function of snowfall reflectivity. The observed Z DR differences agree well with modeling results obtained using integration over nonspherical ice particle size distributions. For higher signal-to-noise ratios, KDP data derived from differential phase measurements are approximately scaled as reciprocals of corresponding radar frequencies indicating that the influence of non-Rayleigh scattering effects on this variable is rather limited. This result is also in satisfactory agreement with data obtained by modeling using realistic particle size distributions. Observed Ka- and W-band LDR differences are strongly affected by the radar hardware system polarization “leak” and are generally less than 4 dB. Smaller differences are observed for higher depolarizations, where the polarization “leak” is less pronounced. Realistic assumptions about particle canting and the system polarization isolation lead to modeling results that satisfactorily agree with observational dual-frequency LDR data.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Robustness of the Stochastic Parameterization of Subgrid-Scale Wind Variability in Sea Surface Fluxes
Abstract High-resolution numerical models have been used to develop statistical models of the enhancement of sea surface fluxes resulting from spatial variability of sea surface wind. In particular, studies have shown that flux enhancement is not a deterministic function of the resolved state. Previous studies focused on single geographical areas or used a single high-resolution numerical model. This study extends the development of such statistical models by considering six different high-resolution models, four different geographical regions, and three different 10-day periods, allowing for a systematic investigation of the robustness of both the deterministic and stochastic parts of the data-driven parameterization. Results indicate that the deterministic part, based on regressing the unresolved normalized flux onto resolved-scale normalized flux and precipitation, is broadly robust across different models, regions, and time periods. The statistical features of the stochastic part of the model (spatial and temporal autocorrelation and parameters of a Gaussian process fit to the regression residual) are also found to be robust and not strongly sensitive to the underlying model, modeled geographical region, or time period studied. Best-fit Gaussian process parameters display robust spatial heterogeneity across models, indicating potential for improvements to the statistical model. These results illustrate the potential for the development of a generic, explicitly stochastic parameterization of sea surface flux enhancements dependent on wind variability.
Endo, Kota↗
Observed Variability in Convective Cell Characteristics and Near-Storm Environments across the Sea- and Bay-Breeze Fronts in Southeast Texas
Abstract During the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) IOP spanning June–September 2022, two fixed ARM sites and a mobile team concurrently sampled the airmass heterogeneity across sea- and bay-breeze fronts around the greater Houston metropolitan region. Here, we quantify the spatiotemporal variability between maritime (coastal/bay side of breeze fronts) and continental (inland side of breeze fronts) air masses over 15 IOP days characterized by strong sea-breeze forcing. We analyze environmental profile data from 177 radiosondes and use S- and C-band radar data to track and quantify the variability in attributes of more than 2300 shallow and transitioning cells across different air masses. The composite analysis of environmental profiles indicates that during the early afternoon, the sea-breeze maritime air mass exhibits lower convective available potential energy (CAPE) than the bay-breeze maritime air mass. As the sea breeze advances inland with time, CAPE within the maritime air mass exceeds that of the continental air mass to the north of the breeze fronts. In general, maritime cells have a larger mean composite reflectivity and cell widths than continental cells; however, the response varies between shallow and transitioning cells. Mean composite 20-dB Z echo-top heights, however, are similar across air masses for both shallow and transitioning cells. The continental and maritime inflow air mass for transitioning cells has significantly different mean values for mixed-layer entrainment CAPE, lifted condensation level, level of free condensation, boundary layer depth, and diluted equilibrium level. For shallow cells, only total precipitable water shows a significant difference. Significance Statement The greater Houston metropolitan area is a natural laboratory for understanding the individual impacts of background meteorology and aerosols on convective clouds. Due to its proximity to the Gulf Coast and Galveston Bay, the Houston region experiences a diurnal precipitation cycle in the summer, driven by convection triggered from sea- and bay-breeze fronts. These fronts act as a boundary between air masses with distinct thermodynamic and environmental characteristics. Convergence along these fronts and interactions between storm outflow and the fronts facilitate convection initiation in different mesoscale air masses. This study quantifies the heterogeneity among these air masses while investigating their influence on cloud microphysics. We find that the effect of airmass heterogeneity is more pronounced for the bulk microphysical properties in shallow clouds.
Sharma, Milind↗
Spatial and Temporal Variability of Vertical Velocity under Shallow Cumulus
Vertical velocity distribution below cloud is one of the key determinants of cloud life cycle, but observations of this variable are extremely sparse in space. Doppler lidar retrievals and large-eddy simulations at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User Facility Southern Great Plains site are used to determine whether vertical velocity statistics from temporally dense profiles at a single location can be substituted for spatial vertical velocity statistics. We show that even a small number (five) of widely distributed [ O (1°) latitude/longitude spacing] lidars is sufficient sampling to reconstruct domainwide spatial vertical velocity variance, but not higher moments of the vertical velocity distribution. Spatial and temporal vertical velocity variances in the Doppler lidar observations are nearly interchangeable as long as the spatial variance is temporally averaged and the temporal variance is averaged across lidars. This is true even though the dominant spatial scales of vertical velocity variability are ≲ 3 km, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the spacing between the lidars. Further, in the limit where the temporal variance does not vary across a spatial domain (e.g., if the meteorological and surface forcing of the atmospheric turbulence is homogeneous across the domain) and the domain-mean vertical velocity is zero, the commonly available retrieval of temporal vertical velocity variance at one site is equivalent to the spatial variance over the domain. We use an updraft parcel model to show that substituting temporal for spatial vertical velocity statistics will have a relatively minor effect on cloud droplet number concentrations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Understanding performance variability in standard and pipelined parallel Krylov solvers
In this work, we collect data from runs of Krylov subspace methods and pipelined Krylov algorithms in an effort to understand and model the impact of machine noise and other sources of variability on performance. We find large variability of Krylov iterations between compute nodes for standard methods that is reduced in pipelined algorithms, directly supporting conjecture, as well as large variation between statistical distributions of runtimes across iterations. Based on these results, we improve upon a previously introduced nondeterministic performance model by allowing iterations to fluctuate over time. We present our data from runs of various Krylov algorithms across multiple platforms as well as our updated non-stationary model that provides good agreement with observations. We also suggest how it can be used as a predictive tool.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Variable genome evolution in fungi after transposon-mediated amplification of a housekeeping gene
Transposable elements (TEs) can be key drivers of evolution, but the mechanisms and scope of how they impact gene and genome function are largely unknown. Previous analyses revealed that TE-mediated gene amplifications can have variable effects on fungal genomes, from inactivation of function to production of multiple active copies. For example, a DNA methyltransferase gene in the wheat pathogen Zymoseptoria tritici (synonym Mycosphaerella graminicola) was amplified to tens of copies, all of which were inactivated by Repeat-Induced Point mutation (RIP) including the original, resulting in loss of cytosine methylation. In another wheat pathogen, Pyrenophora tritici-repentis, a histone H3 gene was amplified to tens of copies with little evidence of RIP, leading to many potentially active copies. To further test the effects of transposon-aided gene amplifications on genome evolution and architecture, the repetitive fraction of the significantly expanded genome of the banana pathogen, Pseudocercospora fijiensis, was analyzed in greater detail. These analyses identified a housekeeping gene, histone H3, which was captured and amplified to hundreds of copies by a hAT DNA transposon, all of which were inactivated by RIP, except for the original. In P. fijiensis the original H3 gene probably was not protected from RIP, but most likely was maintained intact due to strong purifying selection. Comparative analyses revealed that a similar event occurred in five additional genomes representing the fungal genera Cercospora, Pseudocercospora and Sphaerulina. These results indicate that the interplay of TEs and RIP can result in different and unpredictable fates of amplified genes, with variable effects on gene and genome evolution.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗