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SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture

The SMAP Level 4 soil moisture (L4_SM) product provides global estimates of surface and root zone soil moisture, along with other land surface variables and their error estimates. These estimates are obtained through assimilation of SMAP brightness temperature observations into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) land surface model. The L4_SM product is provided at 9 km spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolution and with about 2.5 day latency. The soil moisture and temperature estimates in the L4_SM product are validated against in situ observations. The L4_SM product meets the required target uncertainty of 0.04 m(exp. 3)m(exp. -3), measured in terms of unbiased root-mean-square-error, for both surface and root zone soil moisture.

SMAP↗

Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for Cyber-Intrusion Detection in a Smart Grid

The evolution of the power grid has brought increasing deployment of advance metering infrastructure, penetration of intelligent electronic devices, and integration of physical power system components with information and communications technologies. With the fast-expanding connectivity, cyber vulnerabilities arise due to the use of internet-based communication systems. These systems are targets of cyber-intrusions which attempt to disturb the normal power system functions. Traditional intrusion detection algorithms have been developed without an explicit model of the cyber components. In this paper, an algorithm to detect false data injections in the power system is proposed considering both cyber and physical models of the power system. The algorithm is based on an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) which collects information from state variables of the cyber-physical system to meet the performance requirements of the grid. Simulations of the proposed approach using the IEEE 13-bus test system validate the effectiveness of this artificial intelligence-based algorithm.

Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), cyb↗

Identification of major moisture sources across the Mediterranean Basin

We employ a Lagrangian based moisture back trajectory method on an ensemble of four reanalysis datasets to provide a comprehensive understanding of moisture sources over the Mediterranean land region (30° N–49.5° N and 9.75° W–61.5° E) at seasonal timescales for 1980–2013 period. Using a source region between 10° S–71.35° N along the latitude and 80° W–84.88° E along the longitude that is subdivided into ten complimentary sub-regions, our analyses is able to backtrack up to > 90% of seasonal precipitation at each grid point within the target region. Our results indicate a significant role of moisture advected from the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea, and locally recycled moisture over the target region in shaping the spatial organization of seasonal precipitation. However, a clear east–west contrast is witnessed in determining the relative importance of each of these major moisture sources where the North Atlantic dictates the moisture supply over the western Mediterranean while moisture from Mediterranean Sea and local recycling play a key role over the eastern Mediterranean. Our analyses also demonstrate a major footprint of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on precipitation variability over the Mediterranean land as dynamic and thermodynamic anomalies during the negative phase of NAO match with those during wet years and vice versa. The findings reported here are generally consistent across the four reanalysis datasets. Overall, this study establishes the relative roles of adjacent and far-off oceanic and terrestrial evaporative sources over the Mediterranean land and should help in understanding the drivers of precipitation variability and change at varying timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated fluorescence light microscopy-guided cryo-focused ion beam-milling for in situ montage cryo-ET

Cryogenic-electron tomography (cryo-ET) permits the in situ visualization of biological macromolecules at the molecular level. Owing to the variable thickness of cells, tissues and organisms, frozen specimens may need to be thinned by cryo-focused ion beam (FIB) milling to produce thin (<500 nm) cryo-lamellae suitable for cryo-ET. Locating regions of interest remains a challenge because untargeted milling can lead to inadvertent ablation and removal of regions of interest. Correlative light and electron microscopy, combined with cryo-FIB milling, can guide the identification of labeled targets in the cellular milieu. Multiple transfers between cryo-imaging instruments, cumbersome correlation algorithms, limited accuracy and low throughput have hindered the routine adoption of cryo-FIB milling within a multimodal correlative workflow for in situ structural biology. Here, in this study, we present a workflow for 3D correlative cryo-fluorescence light microscopy-FIB-ET that streamlines fluorescence light microscopy-guided FIB milling, improving throughput while preserving both structural and contextual information. The complete integration of hardware and software described here minimizes sample contamination from cross-platform exchanges and greatly enhances the efficiency of 3D targeting in cryo-milling. We then describe procedures for implementing montage parallel array cryo-ET (MPACT), which can be easily adapted to any modern life-science transmission electron microscope. MPACT supports high-throughput cryo-ET acquisitions (10 tilt series in 1.5 h) for structure determination and comprehensive contextual understanding of macromolecules within their native surroundings. A complete session from sample preparation to MPACT data processing takes 5−7 d for an individual experienced in both cryo-EM and cryo-FIB milling.

Yang, Jie E. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (Uni↗

The Impacts of Horizontal Grid Spacing and Cumulus Parameterization on Subseasonal Prediction in a Global Convection-Permitting Model

Monthlong simulations targeting four Madden–Julian oscillation events made with several global model configurations are verified against observations to assess the roles of grid spacing and convective parameterization on the representation of tropical convection and midlatitude forecast skill. Specifically, the performance of a global convection-permitting model (CPM) configuration with a uniform 3-km mesh is compared to that of a global 15-km mesh with and without convective parameterization, and of a variable-resolution “channel” simulation using 3-km grid spacing only in the tropics with a scale-aware convection scheme. It is shown that global 3-km simulations produce realistic tropical precipitation statistics, except for an overall wet bias and delayed diurnal cycle. The channel simulation performs similarly, although with an unrealistically higher frequency of heavy rain. The 15-km simulations with and without cumulus schemes produce too much light and heavy tropical precipitation, respectively. Without convection parameterization, the 15-km global model produces unrealistically abundant, short-lived, and intense convection throughout the tropics. Only the global CPM configuration is able to capture eastward-propagating Madden–Julian oscillation events, and the 15-km runs favor stationary or westward-propagating convection organized at the planetary scale. The global 3-km CPM exhibits the highest extratropical forecast skill aloft and at the surface, particularly during week 3 of each hindcast. Although more cases are needed to confirm these results, this study highlights many potential benefits of using global CPMs for subseasonal forecasting. Furthermore, results show that alternatives to global convection-permitting resolution—using coarser or spatially variable resolution—feature compromises that may reduce their predictive performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of scalable design optimization parameters for bi-component protective systems

Bi-component protection-systems need to withstand a variety of extreme loading conditions such as high-velocity projectile impact to shock and blast mitigation. The large number of parameters at each stage of bi-component protection system design process results in a near-infinite number of possible variables for optimization. The aim of this project is to identify the scaling laws linking material and geometric scales of the problem to the final impact performance, further including the effects of wave propagation/interaction and inter-component bonding. Specifically, the impact dynamics for different optimal projectile/target density ratios and relative component mass fractions are quantified for bonded ceramic/titanium alloy systems. The impact behavior such as wave mechanics and damage propagation within the target system is characterized and quantified via digital image correlation or via x-ray phase-contrast imaging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An updated estimate of the Mu2e experiment sensitivity

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for the conversion of a negative muon into an electron inside the field of a nucleus. This process does not conserve charged-lepton flavour and is heavily suppressed in the Standard Model (SM), with a branching ratio < 10-50. Any evidence of it would be an undeniable evidence of new physics beyond the SM. The project sets out to achieve a single event sensitivity of $\sim 3 × 10^{-17}$ on the ratio between the probability for a conversion of a negative muon into an electron and the one for a muon capture by the nucleus. Such a sensitivity would represent a 4 orders of magnitude improvement on the previous upper limit for the process, making possible to test predictions of different extensions of the SM. Mu2e uses three superconducting solenoids to produce and measure the muon conversions. In the first solenoid, the Production Solenoid, pions and kaons are produced, together with other secondary products, by 8 GeV kinetic energy proton interactions in a tungsten target. A gradient magnetic field is specifically designed to direct low momentum particles into the Transport Solenoid, an S-shaped magnet that filters out particles with unwanted charge and momentum. Muons, produced by pion and kaon decays, finally reach the aluminum Stopping Target in the Detector Solenoid, where they eventually stop and convert. The result of the conversion process is a monochromatic electron of ~105 MeV/c momentum. The Detector Solenoid also hosts the two main detectors: a straw tube tracker and two CsI calorimeter disks, both providing measurement of event kinematics. A germanium detector and a LaBr crystal are located downstream of the Detector Solenoid to measure the X and gamma rays produced by the muon captures in the Stopping Target. A veto system of scintillators covering the Detector Solenoid and half of the Transport Solenoid is used to identify and reject cosmic rays interactions. With respect to the initial project, the Mu2e running plan has evolved to a staged configuration with 2 years at reduced intensity before the 2025 accelerator shutdown for the neutrino beam upgrade and 2 or 3 years at full intensity after that. This, together with geometry changes and a better knowledge of detector performances obtained by the first slice tests, has required a full revision of the signal over background selection that is the subject of this thesis. In order to achieve a new estimate of Mu2e sensitivity, the simulation of the data corresponding to the first 2 years of data acquisition has been performed. This includes both conversion electrons (CE) and the main sources of background: cosmics, decay-in orbits (DIO), radiative pion captures (RPC) and antiprotons. The characteristics of the signal and of the main backgrounds have been studied to define the best selection variables for CE. A special effort has been devoted to the evaluation of the antiproton background. The lack of experimental data for antiproton production cross section makes the systematic uncertainty on this background significant. A new parameterization of the cross section has been developed to fit the existing data and to provide a more reliable estimate of the systematic uncertainty by comparing the results of the old and the new model. A special effort has been devoted to the optimization of the antiprotons Monte Carlo generator. This study has also revealed that the dominant component within this background is represented by antiprotons produced in the opposite direction with respect to the Transport Solenoid entrance and then redirected to it by back-scattering processes in the Production Target. This ultimately highlights the sensitivity of the background estimate to the G4 handling of antiproton interactions in the 1 to 3 GeV/c momentum range. Finally, the final experimental sensitivity has been studied. The momentum and time selection have been optimized to obtain the 5-sigma discovery reach or, in case of no signal, the upper limit on conversion probability. The results confirm that, in the firs t two years of data taking, Mu2e will be able to improve the current experimental sensitivity for muon-to-electron conversion in an atomic field by more than 3 order of magnitudes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Model calibration of a variable refrigerant flow system with a dedicated outdoor air system: A case study

With increased use of variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems in the U.S. building sector, interests in capability and rationality of various building energy modeling tools to simulate VRF systems are rising. This paper presents the detailed procedures for model calibration of a VRF system with a dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) by comparing to detailed measured data from an occupancy emulated small office building. The building energy model is first developed based on as-built drawings, and building and system characteristics available. The whole building energy modeling tool used for the study is U.S. DOE’s EnergyPlus version 8.1. The initial model is, then, calibrated with the hourly measured data from the target building and VRF-DOAS system. In a detailed calibration procedures of the VRF-DOAS, the original EnergyPlus source code is modified to enable the modeling of the specific VRF-DOAS installed in the building. After a proper calibration during cooling and heating seasons, the VRF-DOAS model can reasonably predict the performance of the actual VRF-DOAS system based on the criteria from ASHRAE Guideline 14-2014. The calibration results show that hourly CV-RMSE and NMBE would be 15.7% and 3.8%, respectively, which is deemed to be calibrated. As a result, the whole-building energy usage after calibration of the VRF-DOAS model is 1.9% (78.8 kWh) lower than that of the measurements during comparison period.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The value of hydropower flexibility for electricity system decarbonization

Hydropower is an abundant, dispatchable, clean energy resource that will play an important role in supporting the clean energy transition. In particular, dispatchable hydropower can provide the operational flexibility that will be required in future systems with high variable renewable energy penetrations. However, the theoretical operational flexibility of hydropower can be restricted in practice by various non-power constraints. In this paper, we quantify how increasing the operational flexibility of dispatchable hydropower resources with reservoirs impacts least-cost generation portfolios and supports power system decarbonization. Specifically, we conduct a capacity expansion analysis of a two-zone system: a hydro-dominated region and a neighboring region with aggressive decarbonization targets that are represented by the United States Pacific Northwest and California respectively. We then introduce a quantifiable index for characterizing the operational flexibility of reservoir hydropower and assess how changes in this metric impact the system-optimal generation portfolio. We find that increasing hydropower flexibility leads to more investment in wind generation, less investment in natural gas generation, lower system costs, and lower system emissions. We further demonstrate a substitution effect between the grid services provided by flexible hydropower operation, increased transmission capacity on a congested line, and energy storage resources. Finally, we show that increasing the operational flexibility of hydropower increases the effective load carrying capability of both hydropower and wind resources. This research supports a more nuanced understanding of how hydropower can support electricity system decarbonization and may motivate reassessing the cost-benefit tradeoffs of non-power constraints that restrict operational flexibility.

Capacity expansion modeling↗

Toward in vivo lung's tissue incompressibility characterization for tumor motion modeling in radiation therapy

Purpose: A novel technique is proposed to characterize lung tissue incompressibility variation during respiration. Estimating lung tissue incompressibility parameter variations resulting from air content variation throughout respiration is critical for computer assisted tumor motion tracking. Continuous tumor motion is a major challenge in lung cancer radiotherapy, especially with external beam radiotherapy. If not accounted for, this motion may lead to areas of radiation overdosage for normal tissue. Given the unavailability of imaging modality that can be used effectively for real-time lung tumor tracking, computer assisted approach based on tissue deformation estimation can be a good alternative. This approach involves lung biomechanical model where its fidelity depends on input tissue properties. This investigation shows that considering variable tissue incompressibility parameter is very important for predicting tumor motion accurately, hence improving the lung radiotherapy outcome. Methods: First, an in silico lung phantom study was conducted to demonstrate the importance of employing variable Poisson's ratio for tumor motion predication. After it was established that modeling this variability is critical for accurate tumor motion prediction, an optimization based technique was developed to estimate lung tissue Poisson's ratio as a function of respiration cycle time. In this technique, the Poisson's ratio and lung pressure value were varied systematically until optimal values were obtained, leading to maximum similarity between acquired and simulated 4D CT lung images. This technique was applied in an ex vivo porcine lung study where simulated images were constructed using the end exhale CT image and deformation fields obtained from the lung's FE modeling of each respiration time increment. To model the tissue, linear elastic and Marlow hyperelastic material models in conjunction with variable Poisson's ratio were used. Results: The phantom study showed that the tumor motion trajectory and its final locations obtained from simulations with and without considering tissue incompressibility variation were very different. For example, tumor displacements in the z direction were -11.23 and -38.10 mm obtained with the Marlow hyperelastic material model in conjunction with constant and variable Poisson's ratio, respectively. By comparing the acquired 4D-CT image sequence of the porcine lung with their image sequence counterparts obtained from the hyperelastic model with constant and variable Poisson's ratio, it was shown that using variable tissue incompressibility reduced errors significantly in tumor motion prediction. Conclusions: This investigation demonstrates the importance of incompressibility variation estimation and utilization for accurate tumor tracking in computer assisted lung external beam radiation therapy. An optimization framework was developed to estimate a Poisson's ratio function in terms of respiration cycle time using experimental image data of the lung. Utilizing this function along with respiratory system FE modeling may lead to more effective tumor targeting, hence potentially improving the outcome of lung external beam radiation therapy techniques. This is particularly true for stereotactic body radiation therapy where only one or a few fraction treatments are applied, precluding the possibility of averaging out dosimetric deviations introduced by the respiratory motion.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The V1V2 Region of HIV-1 gp120 Forms a Five-Stranded Beta Barrel

The region consisting of the first and second variable regions (V1V2) of gp120 plays vital roles in the functioning of the HIV-1 envelope (Env). V1V2, which harbors multiple glycans and is highly sequence diverse, is located at the Env apex and stabilizes the trimeric gp120 spike on the virion surface. It shields V3 and the coreceptor binding sites in the prefusion state and exposes them upon CD4 binding. Data from the RV144 human HIV-1 vaccine trial suggested that antibody responses targeting the V1V2 region inversely correlated with the risk of infection; thus, understanding the antigenic structure of V1V2 can contribute to vaccine design. We have determined a crystal structure of a V1V2 scaffold molecule (V1V2 ZM109 -1FD6) in complex with 830A, a human monoclonal antibody that recognizes a V1V2 epitope overlapping the integrin-binding motif in V2. The structure revealed that V1V2 assumes a five-stranded beta barrel structure with the region of the integrin-binding site (amino acids [aa] 179 to 181) included in a “kink” followed by an extra beta strand. The complete barrel structure naturally presents the glycans on its outer surface and packs into its core conserved hydrophobic residues, including the Ile at position 181 which was highly correlated with vaccine efficacy in RV144. The epitope of monoclonal antibody 830A is discontinuous and composed of three segments: (i) Thr 175 , Tyr 177 , Leu 179 , and Asp 180 at the kink overlapping the integrin-binding site; (ii) Arg 153 and Val 154 in V1; and (iii) Ile 194 at the C terminus of V2. Here, this report thus provides the atomic details of the immunogenic “V2i epitope.”

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Model simulation studies to clarify the effect on saccadic eye movements of initial condition velocities set by the Vestibular Ocular Reflex (VOR)

Voluntary active head rotations produced vestibulo-ocular reflex eye movements (VOR) with the subject viewing a fixation target. When this target jumped, the size of the refixation saccades were a function of the ongoing initial velocity of the eye. Saccades made against the VOR were larger in magnitude. Simulation of a reciprocally innervated model eye movement provided results comparable to the experimental data. Most of the experimental effect appeared to be due to linear summation for saccades of 5 and 10 degree magnitude. For small saccades of 2.5 degrees, peripheral nonlinear interaction of state variables in the neuromuscular plant also played a role as proven by comparable behavior in the simulated model with known controller signals.

Nam, M. H.↗

An Evaluation of the Liquid Cloud Droplet Effective Radius Derived from MODIS, Airborne Remote Sensing, and in Situ Measurements from CAMP2Ex

The cloud drop effective radius (Re) of the drop size distribution derived from passive satellite sensors is a key variable used in climate research. Validation of these satellite products has often taken place under stratiform cloud conditions that favor the assumption of cloud horizontal homogeneity used by the retrieval techniques. However, many studies have noted concerns with respect to significant biases in retrieved Re arising from cloud heterogeneity, for example, in cumulus cloud fields. Here, we examine data collected during the 2019 “Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment” (CAMP2Ex), which, in part, targeted the objective of providing the first detailed evaluation of Re retrieved across multiple platforms and techniques in a cumulus and congestus cloud region. Our evaluation consists of cross-comparisons of Re between the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite, the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) onboard the NASA P-3 aircraft, and in situ measurements from both the NASA P-3 and Learjet aircraft that are all taken in close spatiotemporal proximity to the same cloud fields. A particular advantage of our approach lies in the capability of the RSP to retrieve Re using a bi-spectral MODIS approach and a polarimetric approach, which allows for the evaluation of bi-spectral and polarimetric Re retrievals from an airborne perspective using the same samples. Averaged over all P-3 flight segments examined here for warm clouds, the RSP polarimetric method, the in situ method, and the bias-adjusted MODIS method of Fu et al. (2019) show a comparable median (mean ± standard deviation) for the Re samples of 9.6 (10.2 ± 4.0) µm, 11.0 (13.6 ± 11.3) µm, and 10.4 (10.8 ± 3.8) µm, respectively. These values are far lower than the values of 15.1 (16.2 ± 5.5) µm and 17.2 (17.7 ± 5.7) µm from the bi-spectral retrievals of RSP and MODIS, respectively. Similar results are observed when Re is segregated by cloud-top height and in detailed case studies. The clouds sampled during CAMP2Ex consist of mostly small (mean transect length ∼ 1.4 km) and low clouds (mean cloud-top height ∼ 1 km), which had more numerous small clouds than the trade wind cumuli sampled in past field campaigns such as Rain in Shallow Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) and the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX). The overestimates of Re from the RSP bi-spectral technique compared with the polarimetric technique increased as cloud size and cloud optical depth decreased. Drizzle, cloud-top bumpiness, and solar zenith angle, however, are not closely correlated with the overestimate of bi-spectral Re. For shallow clouds that dominated the liquid cloud cover for the CAMP2Ex region and period, we show that 3-D radiative transfer and cloud heterogeneity, particularly for the optically thin and small clouds, appear to be the leading cause of the large positive biases in bi-spectral retrievals. Because this bias varies with the underlying structure of the cloud field, caution continues to be warranted in studies that use bi-spectral Re retrievals in cumulus cloud fields.

Cloud microphysics↗

Development of Carbon Flux Model Using ABI Data Over the Conterminous US

The satellite-driven carbon flux estimation has been playing important role to estimate continental-scale carbon budget. One of the biggest recent advances in the satellite-driven carbon flux modeling is utilization of high-frequent geostationary satellites to estimate diurnal cycle in carbon fluxes. The satellite based carbon flux estimation used the polar orbiting satellite sensors (e.g., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), which allow us to observe target regions only once during the day. The new generation of geostationary satellite sensors provide frequent observations, often less than every 10 minutes. Here, we use GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data to estimate hourly NEE over the conterminous US. We used the Terrestrial Observation Prediction System (TOPS) model for estimating hourly NEE. TOPS is a diagnostic ecosystem process model that simulates the fluxes of carbon and water through vegetation in response to climate variability. For the climate input, we developed hourly climate data using the same algorithm with NASA Earth Exchange Gridded Daily Meteorology (NEX-GDM) datasets based on machine learning techniques. The hourly climate data includes precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, dew point temperature, and solar radiation were derived from the Geostationary observations. The spatial patterns of ecosystem parameters used in TOPS are optimized using satellite Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF) data. The high frequency GPP estimations from geostationary satellite sensors make it comparable to the instantaneous SIF data than daily GPP. We also used Ameriflux data for optimization of model parameters and the validation of the output. The derived data addresses the diurnal dynamics of carbon cycling at large scales and should help in reducing the uncertainties in carbon budget studies.

geostationary satellite↗

Guest Investigator Studies with the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory

The cumulative all-sky survey by the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), composed of data acquired during the first three years of the mission, included a number of regions of very limited exposure. The most glaring deficiency in coverage was toward the region of the South Galactic Pole (SGP), which received significantly less exposure than other directions- by a factor of at least 2 to 3. Furthermore, nearly all of the SGP exposure was accumulated during the first year of the mission. Since blazars are known to be time-variable, and of unknown duty cycle, a pointing of the CCRO in that direction was considered highly desirable, and long overdue. In addition, data gathered from a pointing toward the SGP and its comparison with comprehensive data available for the North Galactic Pole would be extremely valuable to investigators studying the extragalactic diffuse emission. The reasons outlined above prompted our initiation of a Cycle 4 campaign to systematically search with EGRET and COMPTEL for gamma-ray emission from sources near the South Galactic Pole. The Cycle 4 SGP campaign consisted of tnvo 14-day observations separated in in time by approximately 10 months. The temporal separation of the observations was requested to allow a test for possible variations in the detected sources. Our primary targets were 38 FSRQs which lie within 30 degrees of the SGP, and which satisfy the basic criteria for candidate gamma-ray AGNs,flat-spectrum radio sources, many of which exhibit blazar-type properties). These targets were selected from the standard references, and from the available on-line databases (e.g., the NASA Extragalactic Database, NED), as the most promising AGN targets in the vicinity of the SGP. A 30 radius from the SGP was chosen as the boundary of our survey, since the selected targets would then fall within the most sensitive portion of the fields of view of EGRET and COMPTEL (i.e., within a 30 zenith angle), for a CGRO pointing directed exactly at the SGP. Our South Galactic Pole Survey yielded a number of exciting results. The EGRET data were analyzed using the maximum likelihood techniques to estimate the intensity, spectrum, and position of gamma-ray sources in the field of view. Our analysis revealed four sources at energies greater than 100 MeV with likelihood ratios corresponding to greater than 30 detections (Vestrand et al. 1996). One of the sources is associated with the well known gamma-ray blazar PKS 0208-512, but the other three were previously unknown. Among the new detections was PKS 2155-304 which is often considered a prototype of the x-ray selected BL Lacs. PKS 2155-304, which was also detected at hard x-ray energies by CGRO/OSSE, is one of the brightest BL Lac objects in the sky at optical through x-ray energies and has a history of rapid, strong multiwavelength variability. As such, it has been the subject of intensive, contemporaneous, multiwavelength monitoring covering radio frequencies to x-ray energies.

Vestrand, W. T.↗

The early chemical enrichment histories of two Sculptor group dwarf galaxies as revealed by RR lyrae variables

We present the results of our analysis of the RR Lyrae (RRL) variable stars detected in two transition-type dwarf galaxies (dTrans), ESO294-G010 and ESO410-G005 in the Sculptor group, which is known to be one of the closest neighboring galaxy groups to our Local Group. Using deep archival images from the Advanced Camera for Surveys on board the Hubble Space Telescope, we have identified a sample of RRL candidates in both dTrans galaxies (219 RRab (RR0) and 13 RRc (RR1) variables in ESO294-G010; 225 RRab and 44 RRc stars in ESO410-G005). The metallicities of the individual RRab stars are calculated via the period-amplitude-[Fe/H] relation derived by Alcock et al. This yields mean metallicities of ([Fe/H]){sub ESO294} = –1.77 ± 0.03 and ([Fe/H]){sub ESO410} = –1.64 ± 0.03. The RRL metallicity distribution functions (MDFs) are investigated further via simple chemical evolution models; these reveal the relics of the early chemical enrichment processes for these two dTrans galaxies. In the case of both galaxies, the shapes of the RRL MDFs are well described by pre-enrichment models. This suggests two possible channels for the early chemical evolution for these Sculptor group dTrans galaxies: (1) the ancient stellar populations of our target dwarf galaxies might have formed from the star forming gas which was already enriched through 'prompt initial enrichment' or an 'initial nucleosynthetic spike' from the very first massive stars, or (2) this pre-enrichment state might have been achieved by the end products from more evolved systems of their nearest neighbor, NGC 55. We also study the environmental effects of the formation and evolution of our target dTrans galaxies by comparing their properties with those of 79 volume limited (D {sub ☉} < 2 Mpc) dwarf galaxy samples in terms of the luminosity-metallicity relation and the H I gas content. The presence of these RRL stars strongly supports the idea that although the Sculptor Group galaxies have a considerably different environment from the Local Group (e.g., no giant host galaxies, loosely bound and very low local density), they share a common epoch of early star formation with the dwarf satellite galaxies in the Local Group.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impact of rising greenhouse gases on mid-latitude storm tracks and associated hydroclimate variability and change

Project Summary This project aimed to advance physical understanding of how and why the mid-latitude jet streams and storm tracks shift in intensity and latitude in response to changes in radiative forcing with an especial focus on rising greenhouse gases. The motivation, and much of the work, stemmed from the importance that these mean and transient atmospheric circulation systems have for hydroclimate. In particular drying and expansion of the subtropical dry zones has been related to a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jets and storm tracks. The work involved integrated assessment of observation and model projections as well as targeted model simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗