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Risk-Informed ATF and FLEX Analysis for an Enhanced Resilient BWR Under Design-Basis and Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents

This report documents the activities performed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2020 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed System Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research. The purpose of the RISA Pathway research and development is to support plant owner-operator decisions with the aim to improve the economics, reliability, and maintain the high levels of safety of current nuclear power plants over periods of extended plant operations. The concept of ERP refers to the combinations of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, and the incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, as well as improved fuel cycle efficiency. The objective of the ERP research effort is to use the RISA methods and toolkit in industry applications, including methods development and early demonstration of technologies, in order to enhance existing reactors’ safety features (both active and passive) and to substantially reduce operating costs through risk-informed approaches to plant design modifications to the plant and their characterization. One main focus of the FY 2020 efforts documented in this report was to extend the analyses conducted in FYs 2018 and 2019 for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to a boiling water reactor (BWR). The same analysis process, risk analysis approaches, and analysis tools as in the previous work for PWR were used for a generic BWR with near-term ATF cladding (i.e., Iron-Chromium-Aluminum [FeCrAl] cladding and Chromium [Cr]-coated cladding) designs under the postulated station blackout (SBO) and medium loss-of-coolant (MLOCA) accident scenarios. In addition, a FLEX model was developed and incorporated into a generic BWR probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model using the INL-developed software tool, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), to assess the risk impact from FLEX. The other main focus of the FY 2020 efforts was to advance analysis methods, including developing dynamic approach for FLEX human reliability analysis (HRA) using the INL-developed software tool, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD), as well as developing a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) method for evaluating costs and benefits of safety enhancements in nuclear power plants (NPPs). As a case study, the MCBE method was applied to evaluate the costs and benefits brought by FLEX implementation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Benchmark Simulation of the Natural Convection Shutdown Heat Removal Test Facility Using SAM

Natural convection systems are a promising method to passively remove heat from reactor cavities during loss of forced flow accident scenarios. In this work at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), a highly instrumented Natural Convection Shutdown Heat Removal Test Facility (NSTF) was used to demonstrate the effectiveness of air-cooled natural convection systems. In previous work, RELAP5-3D simulations were performed on this facility with favorable comparisons to experiment for mass flow rate, pressure drop, air temperature increase, and air velocity. Both experimental and simulation efforts with this facility present a useful opportunity to perform a benchmark study with the System Analysis Module (SAM). SAM is an advanced thermal-hydraulic system code currently in development at ANL for advanced non-light water reactor safety analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

A new version of the modeling and analysis system used to produce sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts has just been released by the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 12 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a free-running coupled simulation with the new system and results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results from retrospective forecasts show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only trade off is an increased double ITCZ, which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.

Molod, Andrea↗

Satellite power system: Engineering and economic analysis summary

A system engineering and economic analysis was conducted to establish typical reference baselines for the photovoltaic, solar thermal, and nuclear satellite power systems. Tentative conclusions indicate that feasibility and economic viability are characteristic of the Satellite Power System. Anticipated technology related to manufacturing, construction, and maintenance operations is described. Fuel consumption, environmental effects, and orbital transfer are investigated. Space shuttles, local space transportation, and the heavy lift launch vehicle required are also discussed.

Source record↗

Verification and Demonstration of One-Dimensional Freezing Model in SAM for Salt-Cooled Reactor Analysis Applications

This work presented the development and implementation of the one-dimensional freezing model in system analysis code, SAM, as well as code verification, and code demonstration during a postulated overcooling transient, for fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) system and safety analysis applications. The paper at first summarized the freezing model, finite element numerical method, and special numerical treatment for handling phase appearance/disappearance. Analytical solutions were derived for two cases (with and without solid walls) for code verifications purpose. As expected, numerical results predicted by the SAM code agreed very well with the analytical solution. A code demonstration was then performed on a postulated protected overcooling event transient of a generic reference PB-FHR design. The code was found to successfully predict salt freezing during such a postulated event. However, due to lack of salt freezing testing data, code validation has not been performed in this work, which will be pursued in later studies when such data becomes available.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Space Life Support Engineering Program

This report covers the second year of research relating to the development of closed-loop long-term life support systems. Emphasis was directed toward concentrating on the development of dynamic simulation techniques and software and on performing a thermodynamic systems analysis in an effort to begin optimizing the system needed for water purification. Four appendices are attached. The first covers the ASPEN modeling of the closed loop Environmental Control Life Support System (ECLSS) and its thermodynamic analysis. The second is a report on the dynamic model development for water regulation in humans. The third regards the development of an interactive computer-based model for determining exercise limitations. The fourth attachment is an estimate of the second law thermodynamic efficiency of the various units comprising an ECLSS.

Seagrave, Richard C.↗

Analyses Made to Order: Using Transformation to Rapidly Configure a Multidisciplinary Environment

Aerospace problems are highly multidisciplinary. Four or more major disciplines are involved in analyzing any particular vehicle. Moreover, the choice of implementation technology of various subsystems can lead to a change of leading domain or reformation of the driving equations. An excellent example is the change of expertise required to consider aircraft built from composite or metallic structures, or those propelled by chemical or electrical thrusters. Another example is in the major reconfiguration of handling and stability equations with different control surface configuration (e.g., canards, t-tail v four-post tail). Combinatorial problems are also commonplace anytime that a major system is to be designed. If there are only 5 attributes of a design to consider with 4 different options, this is already 1024 options. Adding just 5 more dimensions to the study explodes the space to over one million. Even generous assumptions like the idea that only 10% of the combinations are physically feasible can only contain the problem for so long. To make matters worse, the simple number of combinations is only the beginning. Combining the issue of trade space size with the need to reformulate the design problem for many of the possibilities makes life exponentially more difficult. Advances in software modeling approaches have led to the development of model-driven architecture. This approach uses the transformation of models into inferred models (e.g. inferred execution traces from state machines) or the skeletons for code generation. When the emphasis on transformation is applied to aerospace, it becomes possible to exploit redundancy in the information specified in multiple domain models into a unified system model. F1urther, it becomes possible to overcome the combinatorial nature of specifying integrated system behavior by manually combining the equations governing a given component technology. Transformations from a system specification combined with a system-analysis mapping specification enable one-click combination of domain analyses. This is a flexibility that has been missing from many engineering codes, which often entangle design specification and physical examination much more than is required to conduct the analysis. This capability has been investigated and cultivated within the DARPA F6 program by a team of JPL and Phoenix Integration engineers building the Adapatable Systems Design and Analysis (ASDA) framework. By embracing system modeling with SysML and the Query-View-Transformation (QVT) language, the ASDA team has been able to build a flexible, easily reconfigurable framework for building up and solving large tradespaces. Examples of application and lessons learned in building the framework will be described in this paper. In addition, the motivation will be laid for various tool vendors to develop open model description standards while being able to maintain competitive advantage through proprietary algorithms and approaches. These standards will also be compared to the underpinnings of model-driven architecture and the OMG standards of the Meta-Object Facility (MOF), SysML, and QVT.

Cole, Bjorn↗

Development, refinement, and testing of a short term solar flare prediction algorithm

Progress toward performance of the tasks and accomplishing the goals set forth in the two year Research Grant included primarily analysis of digital data sets and determination of methodology associated with the analysis of the very large, unique, and complex collection of digital solar magnetic field data. The treatment of each magnetogram as a unique set of data requiring special treatment was found to be necessary. It is determined that a person familiar with the data, the analysis system, and logical, coherent outcome of the analysis must conduct each analysis, and interact with the analysis program(s) significantly sometimes many iterations for successful calibration and analysis of the data set. With this interaction, the data sets yield valuable, coherent analyses. During this period, it was also decided that only data sets taken inside heliographic longitudes (Central Meridian Distance) East and West 30 degrees (within 30 degrees of the Central Meridian of the Sun). If the total data set is then found to be numerically inadequate for the final analysis, 30 - 45 degrees Central Meridian Distance data will then be analyzed. The Optical Data storage system (MSFC observatory) was found appropriate for use both in intermediate storage of the data (preliminary to analysis), and for storage of the analyzed data sets for later parametric extraction.

Smith, Jesse B., Jr.↗

Dynamic Modeling of ALS Systems

The purpose of dynamic modeling and simulation of Advanced Life Support (ALS) systems is to help design them. Static steady state systems analysis provides basic information and is necessary to guide dynamic modeling, but static analysis is not sufficient to design and compare systems. ALS systems must respond to external input variations and internal off-nominal behavior. Buffer sizing, resupply scheduling, failure response, and control system design are aspects of dynamic system design. We develop two dynamic mass flow models and use them in simulations to evaluate systems issues, optimize designs, and make system design trades. One model is of nitrogen leakage in the space station, the other is of a waste processor failure in a regenerative life support system. Most systems analyses are concerned with optimizing the cost/benefit of a system at its nominal steady-state operating point. ALS analysis must go beyond the static steady state to include dynamic system design. All life support systems exhibit behavior that varies over time. ALS systems must respond to equipment operating cycles, repair schedules, and occasional off-nominal behavior or malfunctions. Biological components, such as bioreactors, composters, and food plant growth chambers, usually have operating cycles or other complex time behavior. Buffer sizes, material stocks, and resupply rates determine dynamic system behavior and directly affect system mass and cost. Dynamic simulation is needed to avoid the extremes of costly over-design of buffers and material reserves or system failure due to insufficient buffers and lack of stored material.

Jones, Harry↗

Stability Analysis of Power Systems with High Penetration of State-of-the-Art Inverter Technologies

With the increasing level of inverter-based resources (IBRs) in modern power systems, this paper presents a small-signal stability analysis for power systems comprising synchronous generators (SGs) and IBRs. Four types of inverter controls are considered: two grid-following (GFL) controls, with or without grid support functions; droop-based grid-forming (GFM) controls; and virtual oscillator control-based GFM. We also analyze the impact of STATCOM and synchronous condensers on system stability to assess their role in the energy mix transition. With the small-signal dynamic behavior of the major technologies modeled, this paper provides stringent stability assessments using the IEEE 39-bus benchmark system modified to simulate future power systems. The exhaustive test cases allow for (a) assessing the impacts of different types and controls of generation and supplementary grid assets, as well as system inertia and line impedance on grid stability, and (b) elucidating pathways for the stabilization of IBR-dominated power systems. The analysis also indicates that future power systems can be stabilized with only a fraction of the total generation as voltage sources without SGs or significant system inertia if they are well distributed. This study provides insights into future power system operations with a high level of IBRs that can also be used for planning and operation studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An analysis of power beaming for the moon and Mars

A system analysis is presented of orbiting and microwave and laser systems providing power to operations on the surfaces of the moon and Mars. Results are presented for a single stationary surface site, multiple stationary surface sites, and rover vehicles.

Stavnes, Mark W.↗

Project relay

Systems analysis and performance characteristics of Relay I communications satellite

RELAY I SATELLITE↗