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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Summary of Propagation Cases of the Third AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop

A summary is provided for the propagation portion of the Third AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop held January 5, 2020 in conjunction with the AIAA SciTech 2020 conference. Near-field pressure waveforms for two cases were supplied at multiple azimuthal angles. Ground signatures across the breadth of the sonic boom primary carpet and their corresponding loudness metrics were requested. Each case had some required, as well as some optional, runs. The required cases included atmospheric profiles with measured data including winds. Optional cases included a level-acceleration sonic boom focusing case as well as prediction under standard atmospheric conditions. Participants provided ground signatures along with several loudness metrics using their best sonic boom prediction practices. All the participants' submissions are compared and discussed for each case. Noise or loudness measures are calculated and detailed comparisons and statistical analyses are performed and presented. Compared to previous workshops, the selected cases in the current workshop have much lower boom loudness levels. As was observed in the past workshops, the variation in the loudness measures and spread between participants' submissions increased as the computation proceeded from under-track locations towards the lateral cut-off. Lessons learned during this workshop are discussed and recommendations are made for potential improvements and possible subsequent workshops as we collectively attempt to refine our analysis methods.

SBPW3↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lag Model Prediction of the NASA Juncture Flow

The Juncture Flow Experiment is a new validation class experiment that is simulated here using the Lag turbulence models. The genesis of this experiment was the anomalous side of body separations seen in solutions in Drag Prediction Workshop flowfields. Even the simplest Lag model, the eddy-viscosity version, appears to be quite capable of giving reasonable predictions of this flowfield. With sufficient grid resolution and no internal grid singularities, a very fast and localized oscillation occurs in the wing tip trailing edge region. The predictions for the side of body separation are improved with the enhanced grid system.

Michael E Olsen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transonic Lift and Drag Predictions using Wall Modelled Large Eddy Simulations

Wall-modelled Large Eddy Simulations (WMLES) of the NASA Common Research Model (CRM) at transonic conditions and various angles of attacks leading up to and including shock-induced flow separation are performed using the LAVA computational framework. The simulations are shown to accurately predict the lift curve slope and the onset of separation characterized by the break in the pitching moment. Furthermore, careful assessment of skin-friction drag at cruise condition and its subsequent decrease with increasing angles of attack are shown to be in agreement with viscous sublayer resolving Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes(RANS) simulations. The small differences between WMLES and RANS appear to be of the same order as differences seen between two RANS models at the cruise-point. Some sensitivity is observed to the coefficient used in the subgrid scale model, although this can be reconciled by noting the low chord- and shock-incidence Reynolds numbers (Rex≈106) seen in the outboard regions of the wing, along with the uncertainties associated with tripping and the numerical transition that occurs near the leading edge. Among the primary drawbacks seen in the WMLES predictions is the subdued increase in wave-drag with increasing angle-of-attack and the shock intensity when compared with experimental data. Preliminary assessment suggests that additional span- and stream-wise grid resolution is likely needed in mid- and out-board portions of the wing to better resolve the shock-induced separated flow and to further investigate prediction accuracy of unsteady temporal characteristics of the problem.

ARMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cartesian Mesh Simulations for the Third AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop

Simulation results are presented for all cases from the Third AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop. An inviscid, embedded-boundary Cartesian-mesh flow solver is used in conjunction with adjoint-based mesh adaptation to compute nearfield pressure signatures. Specialized techniques are applied to maximize accuracy and minimize cost on Cartesian meshes. The Richardson-based error estimate highlights regions of the signatures most sensitive to mesh refinement. Timing results and coarse, medium, and fine mesh sizes for nearfield cases demonstrate that the parallel decomposition approach is efficient in both computational time and wall-clock. Pressure signals are propagated to the ground using an augmented Burgers’ equation solver to predict boom carpets. Ground signatures and loudness metrics are presented for a standard atmosphere as well as more realistic atmospheric profiles, which affect overall noise levels and can significantly widen the boom carpet. Mesh convergence studies show that high sampling frequencies, around 500 kHz, are required for propagation, and the sampling frequency increases at large off-track angles with longer acoustic ray paths and propagation times. The numerical methods yield accurate results for predicting low sonic boom signatures while being among the least computationally expensive of the workshop.

ARMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building a Real-Time Predictive Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the Howard County government in Maryland to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a prediction model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City, and transitioned to an Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The final product, called the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM), predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate the OEM’s emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Ryan Hammock↗
NASA NTRS2005

Assessment of Mars Exploration Rover landing site predictions.

Comprehensive analyses of remote sensing data during the three-year effort to select the Mars Exploration Rover landing sites at Gusev crater and at Meridiani Planum correctly predicted the atmospheric density profile during entry and descent and the safe and trafficable surfaces explored by the two rovers. The Gusev crater site was correctly predicted to be a low-relief surface that was less rocky than the Viking landing sites but comparably dusty. A dark, lowalbedo, flat plain composed of basaltic sand and haematite with very few rocks was expected and found at Meridiani Planum. These results argue that future efforts to select safe landing sites based on existing and acquired remote sensing data will be successful. In contrast, geological interpretations of the sites based on remote sensing data were less certain and less successful, which emphasizes the inherent ambiguities in understanding surface geology from remotely sensed data and the uncertainty in predicting exactly what materials will be available for study at a landing site.

Zurek, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Slip Prediction on Mars Using Thermal Inertia Measurements

Rovers operating on Mars have been delayed, diverted, and trapped by loose granular materials. Vision-based mobility prediction approaches often fail because hazardous sand is difficult to distinguish from safe sand based on surface appearance alone. Unlike surface appearance, the thermal inertia of terrain is directly correlated to the same geophysical properties that control slip. This paper presents a quantitative analysis showing that considering thermal inertia improves rover slip prediction on Mars using in-situ data from the Curiosity rover. Thermal inertia is estimated for each slip measurement in sand using both on-board and orbital instruments. Slip models are learned using a mixture of experts approach where the experts are identified using thermal inertia. Two-expert models are compared to a single-expert, vision-only model to show that slip predictions are improved by separating high-slip, low thermal inertia sand from low-slip, high thermal inertia sand. These results support the hypothesis that the consideration of thermal inertia improves mobility estimates for rovers on Mars.

Nesnas, Issa A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Analyzing the Impact of CryoSat-2 Ice Thickness Initialization on Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Prediction

Twin 5-month seasonal forecast experiments are performed to predict the September 2018 minimum ice extent using the fully coupled Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). In the control run, ensemble forecasts are initialized from the operational US Navy Global Ocean Forecasting System (GOFS) 3.1 for the ocean and sea ice but do not assimilate ice thickness data. Another set of forecasts are initialized from the same GOFS 3.1 fields but with sea ice thickness derived from CryoSat-2 (CS2). The Navy ESPC ensemble mean September 2018 minimum sea ice extent initialized with GOFS 3.1 ice thickness was over-predicted by 0.68 M sq.km (5.27 M sq.km) versus the ensemble set of forecasts initialized with CS2 ice thickness that had an error of 0.40 M sq.km (4.99 M sq.km), a 56% reduction in error. The September mean Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE) shows a 19% improvement for the entire Arctic with the CS2 data versus the control run. Comparison against Upward Looking Sonar (ULS) ice thickness in the Beaufort Sea reveals a lower bias and RMSE with the CS2 forecasts at all three moorings. Ice concentration at these locations is also improved, but neither set of experiments show ice free conditions as observed at moorings A and D.

time-lagged ensembles↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Time Domain Boundary Element Method Prediction of Noise Shielding by an NACA 0012 Airfoil

As aircraft noise constraints become more stringent and the number/mixture of aircraft configurations grows, the need for improved aircraft noise reduction technologies becomes more evident. To achieve more aggressive noise reduction goals, it becomes more important to not only understand individual aircraft noise sources, but their interaction with nearby aircraft structures as well. For example, the mutual interaction of multiple propulsors and the airframe structure can lead to increased system noise levels. However, these interactions may also offer opportunities for noise reduction. Understanding these interactions and exploring possible approaches to mitigate or exploit their acoustic impact is important for overcoming key noise barriers. This paper presents further validation of a time domain approach for the prediction of the aforementioned interactions between incident noise sources and nearby aircraft structures. Specifically, predictions using a time domain\ boundary element method1, 2 are compared with measured data from a fundamental shielding experiment.3, 4 The test facility and associated measurements are described in Section II. The computational model is then presented in Section III. Comparisons of the predictions with measured data are provided in Section IV. Finally, concluding remarks regarding some of the more significant results and further areas of interest are presented in Section V.

Acoustic scattering↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Time Domain Boundary Element Method Prediction of Noise Shielding by a NACA 0012 Airfoil

As aircraft noise constraints become more stringent and the number/mixture of aircraft configurations grows, it becomes more important to understand the interaction of individual aircraft noise sources with nearby aircraft structures. Understanding these interactions and exploring possible approaches to mitigate or exploit their acoustic impact is essential for overcoming key noise barriers. This paper describes the further validation of a time domain boundary element approach for the prediction of the interactions between incident noise sources and nearby aircraft structures. Predictions were completed for multiple source locations and comparisons of these results with measured data are presented. Overall, very good agreement between the predicted and measured quantities was obtained in both the pressure time histories and pressure spectra. The effects of surface mesh resolution and source waveform are also presented. The very promising results demonstrate the capabilities of the time domain methodology employed in this study and provide further confidence in its continued development and application in future studies.

TD-FAST↗
NASA NTRS2022

Advances in the prediction of MJO-Teleconnections in the S2S forecast systems

This study evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting systems to represent and predict the teleconnections of the Madden Julian Oscillations and their effects on weather in terms of midlatitude weather patterns and North Atlantic tropical cyclones. This evaluation of forecast systems applies novel diagnostics developed to track teleconnections along their preferred pathways in the troposphere and stratosphere, and to measure the global and regional responses induced by teleconnections across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Results of this study will help the modeling community understand to what extent the potential to predict the weather on S2S time scales is achieved by the current generation of forecasting systems, while informing where to focus further development efforts. The findings of this study will also provide impact modelers and decision makers with a better understanding of the potential of S2S predictions related to MJO teleconnections.

Forecasting↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High Temperature Material Property Data and Challenges to Thermal Process Model Predictions and In-Situ/Ex-Situ Measurements for Metallic Additive Manufacturing

Understanding and predicting performance properties of parts produced by metallic additive manufacturing has improved significantly over the past decade; however, difficult to measure material properties and process outcomes continue to be challenges. The qualification or certification of aerospace parts require extensive measures to quantify variable part properties in order to buy down the risk of component failure. The variability, inherent to the additive manufacturing, process adds unwanted uncertainty in the production of load critical structural components. Process modeling has proven valuable in providing predictions and context for understanding outcomes of the additive manufacturing process; however, these physically informed process models require material properties at temperatures that are difficult to measure and rarely available. Further, calibrating or validating such models is difficult because the process itself is challenging to measure. This talk will explore some of the challenges resulting from difficult to acquire input data by relating thermal process model predictions to in-situ and ex-situ optical microscopy measurements.

Process Model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Heat Transfer Prediction for High-Speed Flows over Blunt Bodies using Adaptive Mixed-Element Unstructured Grids

Aerothermodynamic prediction is important for the design and analysis of many aerospace vehicles. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools used for these predictions commonly rely on structured shock-aligned grids due to the strong shocks exhibited at high speeds. This work details the incorporation of an improved HLLE++ scheme for both perfect gas and thermochemical nonequilibrium flows which robustly captures shock waves on both non-shock-aligned and shock-aligned grids. The HLLE++ scheme reduces the impact of eigenvalue limiting on flow solutions which is required for Roe's scheme for high Mach number flows. An adapted grid approach is also demonstrated using mixed-element unstructured grids to improve heat prediction. Thin prismatic boundary layers are used with tetrahedra in the farfield and for capturing shock waves. Various results are presented for hypersonic flows over blunt bodies including cylinders, spheres, and capsules.

CFD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Accurate and Efficient Predictions of Martensitic Transition Temperatures for Shape Memory Alloys from First Principles

Recent rapid progresses in physics theory and computational power have made it possible to predict the martensitic transition temperatures (MTTs) in shape memory alloys (SMAs) from first principles [1-3]. In particular, rigorous while time-consuming thermodynamic integration has been employed to compute the anharmonic phonon free energies, which play a crucial role in determining martensitic phase transitions in SMAs. However, this approach has only been applied to simple binaries, and its accuracy is unsatisfying for certain SMAs such as the most commonly used NiTi. In this work, we report on several new developments to our method that bring first-principles theory and experiment much closer into agreement including the MTT of NiTi, and that improve the computational efficiency significantly. We have applied our refined approach to investigate the Ni0.5Ti0.5-xHfx and PdxNi0.5-xTi0.5 ternaries, and the predicted MTT for each composition is within 100K compared with experiment. We will address various techniques to overcome the difficulty encountered in studying ternaries. Our theoretical approach is expected to be a broadly applicable and predictive theory for designing complex SMAs with desirable properties. [1] J.B. Haskins, A.E. Thompson,and J.W. Lawson, Phys. Rev B 94, 214110 (2016). [2] J.B. HaskinsandJ.W. Lawson, J. App. Phys. 121, 205103 (2017). [3] J.B. Haskins, H. Malmir, S. J. Honrao, L. A. Sandoval, and J.W. Lawson, Acta Materialia 212, 116872 (2017).

Zhigang Wu↗
NASA NTRS2022

Predicting Unreinforced Fabric Mechanical Behavior with Recurrent Neural Networks

Unreinforced woven fabrics are widely employed in various high-performance applications, including parachute deployment systems, airbags, and ballistic armor. The analysis of such materials is inherently complex due to the multiscale structure of these materials, and the dependence of macroscale behavior on changes that occur at lower scales. Previously, NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) showed its capability in predicting unreinforced fabric behavior at the macroscale by capturing finite rotations that occur at the mesoscale. Though effective, the tool can face high computational cost for large, complex problems, motivating the need for the development of a surrogate model that can capture the same behavior. A recurrent neural network (RNN) was developed and trained on virtual NASMAT data to mimic the physics-based solutions while improving the computational runtime. The architecture of the RNN to best simulate the fabric behavior was carefully crafted based on heuristic knowledge of predicting physics-based temporal data, manual hyperparameter case studies, and Hyperband optimization.. The resultant model was able to predict a variety of stress-strain curves for fabrics with different mesoscale geometries, and was further validated by comparing to experimental data for the K706 style Kevlar plain-weave fabric, demonstrating the ability of the model to effectively capture the geometric changes in the fabric without explicitly calculating them, as is done in NASMAT. Furthermore, the tool showed its ability to improve on the runtime by a factor of 10 for fabric solutions compared to the multiscale tool, which would further enable the simulation of complex loading scenarios on unreinforced fabrics.

Fabric↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ongoing Aeroelastic Prediction and Validation Activities at NASA Langley Research Center

Current and future transonic aircraft concepts of interest to NASA may be susceptible to complex aeroelastic failure mechanisms that are difficult for computational tools to adequately predict. As such, a direct accounting of transonic flutter behavior has not historically been conducted at early design stages, where problems are less expensive to address. This paper summarizes efforts within NASA Langley's Aeroelasticity Branch to improve this situation, through advancements in computational prediction and optimization of transonic flutter behavior, in addition to planned wind tunnel tests aimed at providing a greater wealth of experimental data to validate predictions.

Bret K Stanford↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Heat Transfer Prediction for High-Speed Flows over Blunt Bodies using Adaptive Mixed-Element Unstructured Grids

Aerothermodynamic prediction is important for the design and analysis of many aerospace vehicles. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools used for these predictions commonly rely on structured shock-aligned grids due to the strong shocks exhibited at high speeds. This work details the incorporation of an improved HLLE++ scheme for both perfect gas and thermochemical nonequilibrium flows which robustly captures shock waves on both non-shock-aligned and shock-aligned grids. The HLLE++ scheme reduces the impact of eigenvalue limiting on flow solutions which is required for Roe's scheme for high Mach number flows. An adapted grid approach is also demonstrated using mixed-element unstructured grids to improve heat prediction. Thin prismatic boundary layers are used with tetrahedra in the farfield and for capturing shock waves. Various results are presented for hypersonic flows over blunt bodies including cylinders, spheres, and capsules.

CFD↗
NASA NTRS2021

Application of a Developmental Composite Material Model to Predict the Crush Response of Two Energy Absorbers

In 2012, a consortium was formed with the goal of creating a new composite material model capable of predicting the wide range of properties, accumulated damage behavior, and the many different types of failure in composites under impact loading. The material model was developed for execution in the commercially available nonlinear, explicit transient dynamic finite element code, LS-DYNA®. This material model incorporates three sub-models: deformation, damage, and failure. In addition, the model accounts for strain rate and temperature effects and relies heavily on the input of tabulated material response data. The model is designated *MAT_COMPOSITE_TABULATED_PLASTICITY_DAMAGE, or *MAT_213. Initially, *MAT_213 was developed for use with solid elements only; however, a thin shell element formulation for *MAT_213 has been adapted recently. The objective of this project was to find a suitable modeling example to investigate the capabilities and performance of *MAT_213. In 2012, two composite energy absorbers were designed and evaluated at NASA Langley Research Center through multi-level testing and simulation. The first was a conical-shaped energy absorber, designated the conusoid, which consisted of four layers of hybrid carbon-Kevlar® plain-weave fabric oriented at [+45°/-45°/-45°/+45°] with respect to the vertical direction. The second was a sinusoidal-shaped energy absorber, designated the sinusoid, which consisted of hybrid carbon-Kevlar® plain-weave fabric face sheets, two layers for each face sheet oriented at ±45° with respect to the vertical direction, and a closed-cell ELFOAM® P200 polyisocyanurate foam core. Finite element models were developed of the energy absorbers and simulations were performed using LS-DYNA®. In this paper, the development of a *MAT_213 model of a hybrid carbon-Kevlar® plain-weave fabric is presented. Next, comparisons with material characterization tests are presented. Then, test-analysis results are documented for each energy absorber as comparisons of time-history responses, as well as predicted and experimental structural deformations and progressive damage under impact loading using the *MAT_213 material model. Since a prior *MAT_58, or *MAT_LAMINATED_COMPOSITE_FABRIC material model was used in previous simulations of the energy absorbers, comparisons are made between *MAT_58 and *MAT_213 model predictions with test data. Finally, the paper includes a comprehensive list of “lessons learned,” in which a series of parametric studies are documented that were performed to investigate specific issues related to the material model. These “lessons learned” are included in hopes that they may help future *MAT_213 users.

crashworthiness, LS-DYNA transient dynamic simulat↗