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At least 1,585 records · Page 88

Multi-Channel Correlator Array-Fed Microwave Radiometer

New antenna feed technology is needed for microwave radiometers as aperture sizes continue to increase. Capability for contiguous coverage and spatial Nyquist sampling can be achieved using a multi-beam array-fed reflector architecture adapted from radio astronomy. In this ACT (Advanced Component Technology), a wideband feed array for use in a multi-channel (X-W bands) scanning microwave radiometer is in development. The team, including array provider Nuvotronics Inc., is also developing a laboratory instrument to demonstrate the performance of the array-fed architecture at 36.5 gigahertz using an 80-centimeter projected aperture. The feed array is an 11-element line array based on a microfabricated 8-40 gigahertz feed. Multiple beams are generated by exciting overlapping groups of elements with each group shifted by one element spacing within the array. The modeled antenna patterns reveal six beams with 0.8-degree beamwidth and 0.3-degree spacing. This configuration is also a 1:26 electromagnetic scale model of a 1.41 gigahertz radiometer with a 21-meter aperture. The array-fed architecture for microwave radiometers has the potential to solve the developing need for high-spatial resolution, large aperture instruments. The objective relevancy scenario is a 6-meter aperture X-W band scanning radiometer purposed for high-resolution all-weather imaging of Earth's atmosphere and land, ice and ocean surfaces.

Microwave Radiometer↗

ISS Wastewater Pretreatment via DNA Pattern Picofilter Using Inorganic Brine Stimulant

Astronauts in the International Space Station (ISS) need as much water as they can access, whether it comes from people's breath, sweat or urine, recycled shower water or hand washing. It is of vital importance that any type of water is recycled and filtrated through different methods so it can be re-used. Recently, Cerahelix Inc. offered a ceramic tubular membrane element that uses DNA strands as a pattern in a sol-gel process that allows the sintered product to have a pore size in the picometer scale and claims to achieve ten times higher purity than other commercially available ceramic filters. This should allow higher purities and yields at reduced energy costs and theoretically allow near total dewatering of the reject stream and greater than 80% removal of polyvalent ions. Trials were performed with Cerahelix Inc. filters using an inorganic brine simulant at two pHs to test the efficiency of Pico Helix TM membranes and determine their feasibility for spacecraft wastewater treatment processes. Emphasis was placed on the polyvalent ions: SO42-, PO43-, Mg2+, and Ca2+. These ions should be rejected almost entirely from the feed solution and, not permeate through the filter. Results show that at a pH of 4.2, permeation of the polyvalent ions varied from 59% to 74% and at pH of 8.0, permeation varied from 72% to 87%. An Extended Nernst Planck (ENP) approach that describes the mass transfer process for a pico-filtration membrane was used to construct a model to inform the experimental expectations and outcome.

Carolina Franco↗

An Operational Overview of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from RemoTe Sensing (EXPORTS) Northeast Pacific Field Deployment

The goal of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from RemoTe Sensing (EXPORTS) field campaign is to develop a predictive understanding of the export, fate, and carbon cycle impacts of global ocean net primary production. To accomplish this goal, observations of export flux pathways, plankton community composition, food web processes, and optical, physical, and biogeochemical (BGC) properties are needed over a range of ecosystem states. Here we introduce the first EXPORTS field deployment to Ocean Station Papa in the Northeast Pacific Ocean during summer of 2018, providing context for other papers in this special collection. The experiment was conducted with two ships: a Process Ship, focused on ecological rates, BGC fluxes, temporal changes in food web, and BGC and optical properties, that followed an instrumented Lagrangian float; and a Survey Ship that sampled BGC and optical properties in spatial patterns around the Process Ship. An array of autonomous underwater assets provided measurements over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and partnering programs and remote sensing observations provided additional observational context. The oceanographic setting was typical of late-summer conditions at Ocean Station Papa: a shallow mixed layer, strong vertical and weak horizontal gradients in hydrographic properties, sluggish sub-inertial currents, elevated macronutrient concentrations and low phytoplankton abundances. Although nutrient concentrations were consistent with previous observations, mixed layer chlorophyll was lower than typically observed, resulting in a deeper euphotic zone. Analyses of surface layer temperature and salinity found three distinct surface water types, allowing for diagnosis of whether observed changes were spatial or temporal.The 2018 EXPORTS field deployment is among the most comprehensive biological pump studies ever conducted. A second deployment to the North Atlantic Ocean occurred in spring 2021, which will be followed by focused work on data synthesis and modeling using the entire EXPORTS data set.

Biological pump↗

Multi-objective Eco-Routing Model Development and Evaluation for Battery Electric Vehicles.

This paper develops a multi-objective eco-routing algorithm (combined eco- and travel time-optimum routing) for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and investigates the network-wide impacts of the proposed multi-objective Nash optimum (user equilibrium) traffic assignment on a large-scale network. Eco-routing is a technique that finds the most energy efficient route. ICEV and BEV energy consumption patterns are significantly different with regard to their sensitivity to driving cycles. Unlike ICEVs, BEVs are more energy efficient on low-speed arterial trips compared to highway trips. Different energy consumption patterns require different eco-routing strategies for ICEVs and BEVs. This study found that single objective eco-routing could significantly reduce the energy consumption of BEVs but also significantly increase their average travel time. Consequently, the study developed a multi-objective routing model (eco- and travel time-routing) to improve both energy and travel time measures. The model introduced a link cost function that uses the specification of the value of time and the cost of fuel/energy. The simulation study found that multi-objective routing could reduce the BEV energy consumption by 13.5%, 14.2%, 12.9%, and 10.7%, as well as ICEV fuel consumption by 0.1%, 4.3%, 3.4%, and 10.6% for “not congested, “slightly congested,” “moderately congested,” and “highly congested” conditions, respectively. The study also found that multi-objective user equilibrium routing reduced the average vehicle travel time by up to 10.1% compared to the standard user equilibrium traffic assignment for highly congested conditions, producing a solution closer to the system optimum traffic assignment. The results indicate that the proposed multi-objective eco-routing strategy can reduce vehicle fuel/energy consumption effectively with minimum impacts on travel times for both BEVs and ICEVs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Big Data and AI at DoE's Legacy Sites - 20546

More than 30 years have passed since DOE started the decommissioning of nuclear weapon complexes and the clean-up of soil and groundwater. All the sites have been collecting and archiving soil and groundwater monitoring datasets; particularly contaminant concentration time-series. These datasets provide unparalleled opportunities to understand the system behavior (including more fundamental hydrological and geochemical processes, the response to various perturbations, the long-term trend and environmental decay rate towards the regulatory limit). This understanding is critical for providing multiple lines of evidences that can support site closure. In this study, we explore the machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) applications to the long-term soil and groundwater management at DoE's legacy sites. ML can improve our understanding of the subsurface systems, which is critical for long-term monitoring and management of the sites, while AI can automate or support some of decision-making processes (e.g., anomaly detection, monitoring well placements). The particular focuses are to develop general algorithms to: (1) to identify distinct spatiotemporal patterns and to identify several groups that have similar temporal behaviors, using unsupervised clustering methods, (2) identify the different temporal scales of hydrological responses to climate perturbations by time-series analysis, and (3) reduce the number of monitoring wells by identifying the minimum sufficient number of wells to capture the heterogeneity of the groundwater contaminant plume and concentration distribution, using the Gaussian Process model. We demonstrate our methodology at the Savannah River Site F-Area. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Spatially Resolved, In Situ Carbon Isotope Analysis of Archean Organic Matter

Spatiotemporal variability in the carbon isotope composition of sedimentary organic matter (OM) preserves information about the evolution of the biosphere and of the exogenic carbon cycle as a whole. Primary compositions, and imprints of the post-depositional processes that obscure them, exist at the scale of individual sedimentary grains (mm to micron). Secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) (1) enables analysis at these scales and in petrographic context, (2) permits morphological and compositional characterization of the analyte and associated minerals prior to isotopic analysis, and (3) reveals patterns of variability homogenized by bulk techniques. Here we present new methods for in situ organic carbon isotope analysis with sub-permil precision and spatial resolution to 1 micron using SIMS, as well as new data acquired from a suite of Archean rocks. Three analytical protocols were developed for the CAMECA ims1280 at WiscSIMS to analyze domains of varying size and carbon concentration. Average reproducibility (at 2SD) using a 6 micron spot size with two Faraday cup detectors was 0.4 %, and 0.8 % for analyses using 1 micron and 3 micron spot sizes with a Faraday cup (for C-12) and an electron multiplier (for C-13). Eight coals, two ambers, a shungite, and a graphite were evaluated for micron-scale isotopic heterogeneity, and LCNN anthracite (delta C-13 = -23.56 +/- 0.1 %, 2SD) was chosen as the working standard. Correlation between instrumental bias and H/C was observed and calibrated for each analytical session using organic materials with H/C between 0.1 and 1.5 (atomic), allowing a correction based upon a C-13H/C-13 measurement included in every analysis. Matrix effects of variable C/SiO2 were evaluated by measuring mm to sub-micron graphite domains in quartzite from Bogala mine, Sri Lanka. Apparent instrumental bias and C-12 count rate are correlated in this case, but this may be related to a crystal orientation effect in graphite. Analyses of amorphous Archean OM suggest that instrumental bias is consistent for 12C count rates as low as 10% relative to anthracite. Samples from the ABDP-9 (n=3; Mount McRae Shale, approximately 2.5 Ga), RHDH2a (n=2; Carrawine Dolomite and Jeerinah Fm, approximately 2.6 Ga), WRL1 (n=3; Wittenoom Fm, Marra Mamba Iron Formation, and Jeerinah Fm, approximately 2.6 Ga), and SV1 (n=1; Tumbiana Fm, approximately 2.7 Ga) drill cores, each previously analyzed for bulk organic carbon isotope composition, yielded 100 new, in situ data from Neoarchean sedimentary OM. In these samples, delta C-13 varies between -53.1 and -28.3 % and offsets between in situ and bulk compositions range from -8.3 to 18.8%. In some cases, isotopic composition and mode of occurrence (e.g. morphology and mineral associations) are statistically correlated, enabling the identification of distinct reservoirs of OM. Our results support previous evidence for gradients of oxidation with depth in Neoarchean environments driven by photosynthesis and methane metabolism. The relevance of these findings to questions of bio- and syngenicity as well as the alteration history of previously reported Archean OM will be discussed.

Williford, Kenneth H.↗

Protist diversity and community complexity in the rhizosphere of switchgrass are dynamic as plants develop

Abstract Background Despite their widespread distribution and ecological importance, protists remain one of the least understood components of the soil and rhizosphere microbiome. Knowledge of the roles that protists play in stimulating organic matter decomposition and shaping microbiome dynamics continues to grow, but there remains a need to understand the extent to which biological and environmental factors mediate protist community assembly and dynamics. We hypothesize that protists communities are filtered by the influence of plants on their rhizosphere biological and physicochemical environment, resulting in patterns of protist diversity and composition that mirror previously observed diversity and successional dynamics in rhizosphere bacterial communities. Results We analyzed protist communities associated with the rhizosphere and bulk soil of switchgrass (SG) plants ( Panicum virgatum ) at different phenological stages, grown in two marginal soils as part of a large-scale field experiment. Our results reveal that the diversity of protists is lower in rhizosphere than bulk soils, and that temporal variations depend on soil properties but are less pronounced in rhizosphere soil. Patterns of significantly prevalent protists groups in the rhizosphere suggest that most protists play varied ecological roles across plant growth stages and that some plant pathogenic protists and protists with omnivorous diets reoccur over time in the rhizosphere. We found that protist co-occurrence network dynamics are more complex in the rhizosphere compared to bulk soil. A phylogenetic bin-based null model analysis showed that protists’ community assembly in our study sites is mainly controlled by homogenous selection and dispersal limitation, with stronger selection in rhizosphere than bulk soil as SG grew and senesced. Conclusions We demonstrate that environmental filtering is a dominant determinant of overall protist community properties and that at the rhizosphere level, plant control on the physical and biological environment is a critical driver of protist community composition and dynamics. Since protists are key contributors to plant nutrient availability and bacterial community composition and abundance, mapping and understanding their patterns in rhizosphere soil is foundational to understanding the ecology of the root-microbe-soil system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scale-dependent tipping points of bacterial colonization resistance

The commonly observed stability of natural microbiomes is important for their function, yet the ubiquity of microbiome stability remains enigmatic. The strongest form of stability, colonization resistance, protects residents against invaders and is often associated with specific porous structures, such as skin follicles or intestinal crypts. By systematically probing the colonization of fly gut–derived bacteria in microfluidic pores of varying sizes, we revealed that colonization patterns and invasion rates strongly depend on the pore size. Mathematical modeling shows that bacteria spontaneously tend to organize into a dense colonization-resistant state in pores exceeding a critical size. The scale dependence of stability and resilience could bias ecological filtering in microbiomes and should be considered in the design of microbial ecology experiments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Intermodel Spread in the Pattern Effect and Its Contribution to Climate Sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Radiative feedbacks depend on the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and thus can change over time as SST patterns evolve—the so-called pattern effect. In this study, we investigate intermodel differences in the magnitude of the pattern effect and how these differences contribute to the spread in effective equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) within CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Effective ECS in CMIP5 estimated from 150-yr-long abrupt4×CO2 simulations is on average 10% higher than that estimated from the early portion (first 50 years) of those simulations, which serves as an analog for historical warming; this difference is reduced to 7% on average in CMIP6. The (negative) net radiative feedback weakens over the course of the abrupt4×CO2 simulations in the vast majority of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, but this weakening is less dramatic on average in CMIP6. For both ensembles, the total variance in the effective ECS is found to be dominated by the spread in radiative response on fast time scales, rather than the spread in feedback changes. Using Green’s functions derived from two AGCMs shows that the spread in feedbacks on fast time scales may be primarily due to differences in atmospheric model physics, whereas the spread in feedback evolution is primarily governed by differences in SST patterns. Intermodel spread in feedback evolution is well explained by differences in the relative warming in the West Pacific warm-pool regions for the CMIP5 models, but this relation fails to explain differences across the CMIP6 models, suggesting that a stronger sensitivity of extratropical clouds to surface warming may also contribute to feedback changes in CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping of agricultural land use from ERTS-1 digital data

A study area was selected in Lancaster and Lebanon Counties, two of the major agricultural counties in Pennsylvania. This area was delineated on positive transparencies on MSS data collected on October 11, 1972 (1080-15185). Channel seven was used to delineate general land forms, drainage patterns, water and urban areas. Channel five was used to delineate highway networks. These identifiable features were useful aids for locating areas on the computer output. Computer generated maps were used to delineate broad land use categories, such as forest land, agricultural land, urban areas and water. These digital maps have a scale of approximately 1:24,000 thereby allowing direct comparison with U.S.G.S. 7.5 minute quadrangle sheets. Aircraft data were used as a form of ground truth useful for the delineation of land use patterns.

Wilson, A. D.↗

Fine-scale landscape characteristics, vegetation composition, and snowmelt timing control phenological heterogeneity across low-Arctic tundra landscapes in Western Alaska

The Arctic is warming at over twice the rate of the rest of the Earth, resulting in significant changes in vegetation seasonality that regulates annual carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, a crucial knowledge gap exists regarding the intricate interplay among climate, permafrost, and vegetation that generates high phenology variability across extensive tundra landscapes. This oversight has led to significant discrepancies in phenological patterns observed across warming experiments, long-term ecological observations, and satellite and modeling studies, undermining our ability to understand and forecast plant responses to climate change in the Arctic. To address this problem, we assessed plant phenology across three low-Arctic tundra landscapes on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, using a combination of in-situ phenocam observations and high-resolution PlanetScope CubeSat data. We examined the patterns and drivers of phenological diversity across the landscape by (1) quantifying phenological diversity among dominant plant function types (PFTs) and (2) modeling the interrelations between plant phenology and fine-scale landscape features, such as topography, snowmelt, and vegetation. Our findings reveal that both spring and fall phenology varied significantly across Arctic PFTs, accounting for about 25%–44% and 34%–59% of the landscape-scale variation in the start of spring [SOS] and start of fall [SOF], respectively. Deciduous tall shrubs (e.g. alder and willow) had a later SOS (~7 d behind the mean of other PFTs), but completed leaf expansion (within 2 weeks) considerably faster compared to other PFTs. We modeled the landscape-scale variation in SOS and SOF using Random Forest, which showed that plant phenology can be accurately captured by a suite of variables related to vegetation composition, topographic characteristics, and snowmelt timing (variance explained: 53%–68% for SOS and 59%–82% for SOF). Notably, snowmelt timing was a crucial determinant of SOS, a factor often neglected in most spring phenology models. Our study highlights the impact of fine-scale vegetation composition, snow seasonality, and landscape features on tundra phenological heterogeneity. Improved understanding of such considerable intra-site phenological variability and associated proximate controls across extensive Arctic landscapes offers critical insights for representation of tundra phenology in process models and associated impact assessments with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Genomic variation across Chinook salmon populations reveals effects of a duplication on migration alleles and supports fine scale structure

Abstract The distribution of ecotypic variation in natural populations is influenced by neutral and adaptive evolutionary forces that are challenging to disentangle. This study provides a high‐resolution portrait of genomic variation in Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) with emphasis on a region of major effect for ecotypic variation in migration timing. With a filtered data set of ~13 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from low‐coverage whole genome resequencing of 53 populations (3566 barcoded individuals), we contrasted patterns of genomic structure within and among major lineages and examined the extent of a selective sweep at a major effect region underlying migration timing (GREB1L/ROCK1). Neutral variation provided support for fine‐scale structure of populations, while allele frequency variation in GREB1L/ROCK1 was highly correlated with mean return timing for early and late migrating populations within each of the lineages ( r 2 = .58–.95; p < .001). However, the extent of selection within the genomic region controlling migration timing was much narrower in one lineage (interior stream‐type) compared to the other two major lineages, which corresponded to the breadth of phenotypic variation in migration timing observed among lineages. Evidence of a duplicated block within GREB1L/ROCK1 may be responsible for reduced recombination in this portion of the genome and contributes to phenotypic variation within and across lineages. Lastly, SNP positions across GREB1L/ROCK1 were assessed for their utility in discriminating migration timing among lineages, and we recommend multiple markers nearest the duplication to provide highest accuracy in conservation applications such as those that aim to protect early migrating Chinook salmon. These results highlight the need to investigate variation throughout the genome and the effects of structural variants on ecologically relevant phenotypic variation in natural species.

Horn, Rebekah L.↗

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Improved classification of small-scale urban watersheds using thematic mapper simulator data

The utility of Landsat MSS classification methods in the case of small, highly urbanized hydrological basins containing complex land-use patterns is limited, and is plagued by misclassifications due to the spectral response similarity of many dissimilar surfaces. Landsat MSS data for the Conley Creek basin near Atlanta, Georgia, have been compared to thematic mapper simulator (TMS) data obtained on the same day by aircraft. The TMS data were able to alleviate many of the recurring patterns associated with MSS data, through bandwidth optimization, an increase of the number of spectral bands to seven, and an improvement of ground resolution to 30 m. The TMS is thereby able to detect small water bodies, powerline rights-of-way, and even individual buildings.

Owe, M.↗

'Backscratching' alternative to PRSI pattern recognition

The Backscratching optical correlation algorithm has been proposed for four degree of freedom tracking. In an alternating Cartesian and log-polar implementation, the tracked parameters are scale, rotation, and two-dimenisonal translation. The algorithm has a finite capture radius in the four-dimensional tracking space. The capture radius is dependent on the tracked object, the correlator architecture, and the method of filter computation. Some methods of extending the capture radius are discussed. One is a modification of matched filters, another is a careful consideration of log-polar transform center, and another is an operational method. Some simulations of the filter construction method, in which a larger capture radius is gained at the expense of precision in determining the four parameters are presented.

Monroe, Stanley E., Jr.↗

Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for accurate epidemic forecasting to predict pathogen spread, evolution, and evaluate intervention strategies. Forecast reliability hinges on detailed knowledge of disease transmission across population segments, which may be inferred from contact surveys or mobility data. However, these indirect approaches make it difficult to estimate rare transmissions between socially or geographically distant communities. We show that the steep ramp-up of genome sequencing surveillance during the pandemic can be leveraged to directly identify transmission patterns between geographically defined communities. Our approach uses a hidden Markov model to infer the fraction of infections a community imports from others based on how rapidly allele frequencies in the focal community converge to those in the donor communities. Applying this method to SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data from England and the United States, we uncover networks of intercommunity transmission that reflect geographical relationships while exposing significant long-range interactions. The scaling of importation rate with distance is consistent across both countries, yet weaker than expected based on mobility data, highlighting limitations of indirect inference. We show that transmission patterns can change between waves of variants of concern and analyze how the inferred heterogeneity in intercommunity transmission impacts evolutionary forecasts. While applied here to geographically defined communities, our approach could be applied to those defined by other traits (e.g., age, socioeconomic status), provided time-series data can be stratified accordingly. Overall, our study highlights population genomic time series data as a crucial record of epidemiological interactions, which can be deciphered using tree-free inference methods.

Okada, Takashi [Department of Physics; University ↗

Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with ENSO and Tropical Circulations

Tropical precipitation and the accompanying latent heat release is the engine that drives the global circulation. An increase or decrease in rainfall in the tropics not only leads to the local effects of flooding or drought, but contributes to changes in the large scale circulation and global climate system. Rainfall in the tropics is highly variable, both seasonally (monsoons) and interannually (ENSO). Two experimental observational data sets, developed under the auspices of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), are used in this study to examine the relationships between global precipitation and ENSO and extreme monsoon events over the past 20 years. The V2x79 monthly product is a globally complete, 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg, satellite-gauge merged data set that covers the period 1979 to the present. Indices based on patterns of satellite-derived rainfall anomalies in the Pacific are used to analyze the teleconnections between ENSO and global precipitation, with emphasis on the monsoon systems. It has been well documented that dry (wet) Asian monsoons accompany warm (cold) ENSO events. However, during the summer seasons of the 1997/98 ENSO the precipitation anomalies were mostly positive over India and the Bay of Bengal, which may be related to an epoch-scale variability in the Asian monsoon circulation. The North American monsoon may be less well linked to ENSO, but a positive precipitation anomaly was observed over Mexico around the September following the 1997/98 event. For the twenty-year record, precipitation and SST patterns in the tropics are analyzed during wet and dry monsoons. For the Asian summer monsoon, positive rainfall anomalies accompany two distinct patterns of tropical precipitation and a warm Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies coincide with a wet Maritime Continent.

Curtis, Scott↗

Space Station UCS antenna pattern computation and measurement

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the interference to the Space Station Ultrahigh Frequency (UHF) Communication Subsystem (UCS) antenna radiation pattern due to its environment - Space Station. A hybrid Computational Electromagnetics (CEM) technique was applied in this study. The antenna was modeled using the Method of Moments (MOM) and the radiation patterns were computed using the Uniform Geometrical Theory of Diffraction (GTD) in which the effects of the reflected and diffracted fields from surfaces, edges, and vertices of the Space Station structures were included. In order to validate the CEM techniques, and to provide confidence in the computer-generated results, a comparison with experimental measurements was made for a 1/15 scale Space Station mockup. Based on the results accomplished, good agreement on experimental and computed results was obtained. The computed results using the CEM techniques for the Space Station UCS antenna pattern predictions have been validated.

Hwu, Shian U.↗