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DOE OSTI2024

Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3

Systematic, routine, and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) facilitates benchmarking improvement across model generations and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different model configurations. By gauging the consistency between models and observations, this endeavor is becoming increasingly necessary to objectively synthesize the thousands of simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to date. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Metrics Package (PMP) is an open-source Python software package that provides quick-look objective comparisons of ESMs with one another and with observations. The comparisons include metrics of large- to global-scale climatologies, tropical inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability modes such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), extratropical modes of variability, regional monsoons, cloud radiative feedbacks, and high-frequency characteristics of simulated precipitation, including its extremes. The PMP comparison results are produced using all model simulations contributed to CMIP6 and earlier CMIP phases. An important objective of the PMP is to document the performance of ESMs participating in the recent phases of CMIP, together with providing version-controlled information for all datasets, software packages, and analysis codes being used in the evaluation process. Among other purposes, this also enables modeling groups to assess performance changes during the ESM development cycle in the context of the error distribution of the multi-model ensemble. Quantitative model evaluation provided by the PMP can assist modelers in their development priorities. In this paper, we provide an overview of the PMP, including its latest capabilities, and discuss its future direction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Search for low-mass hidden-valley dark showers with non-prompt muon pairs in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A search for signatures of a dark analog to quantum chromodynamics is performed. The analysis targets long-lived dark mesons that decay into standard-model particles, with a high branching fraction of the dark mesons decaying into muons. The dark mesons are formed by the hadronisation of dark partons, which are produced by a decay of the Higgs boson. The search is performed using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 41.6 fb −1 , which was collected in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in 2018 using non-prompt muon triggers. The search is based on resonant muon pair signatures. Machine-learning techniques are employed in the analysis, utilising boosted decision trees to discriminate between signal and background. No significant excess is observed above the standard model expectation. Upper limits on the branching fraction of the Higgs boson decaying to dark partons are determined to be as low as 10−4 at 95% confidence level, surpassing and extending the existing limits on models with dark $\tilde{ω}$ mesons for mean proper decay lengths of less than 500 mm and for $\tilde{ω}$ masses down to 0.3 GeV. First limits are set for extended dark-shower models with two dark flavours that contain dark photons, probing their masses down to 0.33 GeV.

Beyond Standard Model↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Using Imprint Human Performance Models to Inform Crew Size

HUMANS TO MARS, BUT HOW MANY? USING IMPRINT HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELS TO INFORM CREW SIZE Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for future missions. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew. The custom-built crew expertise model results will be presented in the training sub-tag. Here we present results of the three IMPRINT models. Two of these models were built using IMPRINT’s Operations Model capability, with detailed task networks for specific systems and scenarios allowing for a comprehensive mental workload analysis on certain crew positions. The third model was built using IMPRINT’s Force Model capability, allowing for a higher-level manpower analysis based on crew engagement in activities performed over a longer Mars transit scenario, and how those activities may be impacted by unplanned events and new tasking unique to the Mars mission. Differences between the models will be presented, as well as examples of model results and a discussion of how those results may inform future Mars mission manpower requirements, system design, and operating procedures.

Donna L Dempsey↗

NASA NTRS2007

Development of the Functional Flow Block Diagram for the J-2X Rocket Engine System

The J-2X program calls for the upgrade of the Apollo-era Rocketdyne J-2 engine to higher power levels, using new materials and manufacturing techniques, and with more restrictive safety and reliability requirements than prior human-rated engines in NASA history. Such requirements demand a comprehensive systems engineering effort to ensure success. Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne system engineers performed a functional analysis of the engine to establish the functional architecture. J-2X functions were captured in six major operational blocks. Each block was divided into sub-blocks or states. In each sub-block, functions necessary to perform each state were determined. A functional engine schematic consistent with the fidelity of the system model was defined for this analysis. The blocks, sub-blocks, and functions were sequentially numbered to differentiate the states in which the function were performed and to indicate the sequence of events. The Engine System was functionally partitioned, to provide separate and unique functional operators. Establishing unique functional operators as work output of the System Architecture process is novel in Liquid Propulsion Engine design. Each functional operator was described such that its unique functionality was identified. The decomposed functions were then allocated to the functional operators both of which were the inputs to the subsystem or component performance specifications. PWR also used a novel approach to identify and map the engine functional requirements to customer-specified functions. The final result was a comprehensive Functional Flow Block Diagram (FFBD) for the J-2X Engine System, decomposed to the component level and mapped to all functional requirements. This FFBD greatly facilitates component specification development, providing a well-defined trade space for functional trades at the subsystem and component level. It also provides a framework for function-based failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), and a rigorous baseline for the functional architecture.

White, Thomas↗

DOE OSTI2023

Overall protein structure quality assessment using hydrogen-bonding parameters

Atomic model refinement at low resolution is often a challenging task. This is mostly because the experimental data are not sufficiently detailed to be described by atomic models. To make refinement practical and ensure that a refined atomic model is geometrically meaningful, additional information needs to be used such as restraints on Ramachandran plot distributions or residue side-chain rotameric states. However, using Ramachandran plots or rotameric states as refinement targets diminishes the validating power of these tools. Therefore, finding additional model-validation criteria that are not used or are difficult to use as refinement goals is desirable. Hydrogen bonds are one of the important noncovalent interactions that shape and maintain protein structure. These interactions can be characterized by a specific geometry of hydrogen donor and acceptor atoms. Systematic analysis of these geometries performed for quality-filtered high-resolution models of proteins from the Protein Data Bank shows that they have a distinct and a conserved distribution. Here, it is demonstrated how this information can be used for atomic model validation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modification of the magneto-hydrodynamic equilibrium by the lower-hybrid wave driven fast electrons on the TST-2 spherical tokamak

Presence of a large population of fast particles may qualitatively modify the tokamak equilibrium from the one that can be described by standard magneto-hydrodynamics (MHD). The kinetic modification of the MHD equilibrium was studied for a lower-hybrid (LH) wave driven plasma on the TST-2 spherical tokamak. The analysis was performed using an equilibrium reconstruction method based on an extended MHD model that considers a two-component plasma of bulk MHD fluid and kinetic fast electrons. Scrape-off-layer current appeared naturally in the extended MHD analysis because of the finite electron orbit excursion from the flux surfaces. This reduced the bulk pressure contribution to the toroidal current substantially. Furthermore, the resulting poloidal flux profile was more consistent with that inferred from the Thomson scattering measurement.

extended magneto-hydrodynamics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Oklo Sponsored Testing using PELICAN: System, Subchannel, and High-Fidelity Software Validation (Final CRADA Report)

Argonne National Laboratory (the Contractor), located in Lemont IL, and Oklo, Inc., (the Participant), headquartered in Santa Clara, CA, propose to enter into a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) to perform a gap analysis of thermal hydraulic data, perform prototypical fuel assembly pressure drop and cavitation model validation, generate the experimental data as well as the corresponding uncertainties for this matrix and, finally, develop the validation models with the Argonne system level code SAS4A/SASSYS-1, the Argonne subchannel analysis code DASSH, the Argonne high fidelity code Nek5000, and/or the Idaho National Laboratory code Pronghorn Subchannel. The work outlined below will significantly improve the experimental and validation database currently available for liquid metal fast reactors, thus making it a viable part of a comprehensive reactor design and licensing suite to be used by the participant.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1983

Application of tire dynamics to aircraft landing gear design analysis

The tire plays a key part in many analyses used for design of aircraft landing gear. Examples include structural design of wheels, landing gear shimmy, brake whirl, chatter and squeal, complex combination of chatter and shimmy on main landing gear (MLG) systems, anti-skid performance, gear walk, and rough terrain loads and performance. Tire parameters needed in the various analyses are discussed. Two tire models are discussed for shimmy analysis, the modified Moreland approach and the von Schlippe-Dietrich approach. It is shown that the Moreland model can be derived from the Von Schlippe-Dietrich model by certain approximations. The remaining analysis areas are discussed in general terms and the tire parameters needed for each are identified. Accurate tire data allows more accurate design analysis and the correct prediction of dynamic performance of aircraft landing gear.

Black, R. J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

VADER: A Tool for Criticality Safety Validation

The purpose of criticality safety is to prevent any inadvertent criticality from occurring during the handling or storage of fissile material. Calculations are frequently used to demonstrate that a sufficient subcritical margin exists. Validation is a key aspect of the evaluation process, establishing the suitability, accuracy, and associated uncertainty of the computational method and data to be used for the intended application. The validation process is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 in order to investigate the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. The validation parameters that are traditionally applied to safety analysis calculations are the bias and the bias uncertainty . The bias is the deviation of the average k eff of the validation suite from unity. The bias uncertainty accounts for the statistical uncertainty in the bias based on the standard deviation, sample size, and distribution of k eff values of the validation suite. The values of bias and bias uncertainty ensure that the systems predicted to be subcritical by the computational method will indeed be subcritical. The bias and bias uncertainty are often combined to determine an upper subcritical limit (USL) or computational margin that can then be applied to safety analysis calculations. Many methods have been developed by different organizations to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty for various types of criticality analyses. Each of these methods typically requires that the validity of various underpinning statistical assumptions be confirmed to demonstrate that the method is appropriate for the analysis of a given validation suite. An example of the validation decision making flow is shown in Fig.1. As shown in Fig. 1, the analyst performing the validation fits a trend line to the data and performs a test to determine if the trend was a statistically better representation of the data than if it were treated as an uncorrelated sample. If the trend line is a better representation of the data, then the analyst uses any one of a number of trending techniques to determine the bias and bias uncertainty. If a trend is not an appropriate representation of the data, then the analyst proceeds to perform a normality assessment for the data. If the normal assumption can be shown to be acceptable, then the analyst calculates the bias and bias uncertainty with the parametric technique. If the assumption of normality cannot be justified, then the nonparametric technique is used. Once the decision flow has been followed and the appropriate technique has been selected, the bias and bias uncertainty is typically combined with an administrative margin to determine a USL below which calculated values of k eff for safety analysis models can be considered subcritical. The calculations used in each decision are often performed with spreadsheets or with small programs available at various sites performing criticality analyses. Expertise in understanding and interpreting the results must be maintained to perform these calculations. This can often be an error-prone process. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently developing the Validation and Data Evaluation Resource (VADER) to simplify and automate the criticality safety validation process and to provide a software quality assurance pedigree to the calculational methods used. This paper discusses the use of the Fulcrum user interface with VADER, the anticipated initial capabilities of VADER to perform validation analyses, and the output from the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1979

Unsteady flow model for circulation-control airfoils

An analysis and a numerical lifting surface method are developed for predicting the unsteady airloads on two-dimensional circulation control airfoils in incompressible flow. The analysis and the computer program are validated by correlating the computed unsteady airloads with test data and also with other theoretical solutions. Additionally, a mathematical model for predicting the bending-torsion flutter of a two-dimensional airfoil (a reference section of a wing or rotor blade) and a computer program using an iterative scheme are developed. The flutter program has a provision for using the CC airfoil airloads program or the Theodorsen hard flap solution to compute the unsteady lift and moment used in the flutter equations. The adopted mathematical model and the iterative scheme are used to perform a flutter analysis of a typical CC rotor blade reference section. The program seems to work well within the basic assumption of the incompressible flow.

Rao, B. M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Modeling the pressure-dilatation correlation

It is generally accepted that pressure dilatation, which is an additional compressibility term in turbulence transport equations, may be important for high speed flows. Recent direct simulations of homogeneous shear turbulence have given concrete evidence that the pressure dilatation is important insofar that it contributes to the reduced growth of turbulent kinetic energy due to compressibility effects. The problem of modeling pressure dilatation is addressed. A component of the pressure dilatation is isolated which exhibits temporal oscillations and, using direct numerical simulations of homogeneous shear turbulence and isotropic turbulence, show that it has a negligible contribution to the evolution of turbulent kinetic energy. Then, an analysis for the case of homogeneous turbulence is performed to obtain a model for the nonoscillatory pressure dilatation. This model algebraically relates the pressure dilatation to quantities traditionally obtained in incompressible turbulence closures. The model is validated by direct comparison with the pressure dilatation data obtained from the simulations.

Sarkar, S.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Design of a Formation of Earth-Orbiting Satellites: The Auroral Lites Mission

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has proposed a set of spacecraft flying in close formation around the Earth in order to measure the behavior of the auroras. The mission, named Auroral Lites, consists of four spacecraft configured to start at the vertices of a tetrahedron, flying over three mission phases. During the first phase, the distance between any two spacecraft in the formation is targeted at 10 kilometers (km). The second mission phase is much tighter, requiring satellite interrange spacing targeted at 500 meters. During the final phase of the mission, the formation opens to a nominal 100-km interrange spacing. In this paper, we present the strategy employed to initialize and model such a close formation during each of these phases. The analysis performed to date provides the design and characteristics of the reference orbit, the evolution of the formation during Phases I and II, and an estimate of the total mission delta-V budget. AI Solutions' mission design tool, FreeFlyer, was used to generate each of these analysis elements. The tool contains full force models, including both impulsive and finite duration maneuvers. Orbital maintenance can be fully modeled in the system using a flexible, natural scripting language built into the system. In addition, AI Solutions is in the process of adding formation extensions to the system facilitating mission analysis for formations like Auroral Lites. We will discuss how FreeFlyer is used for these analyses.

Hametz, Mark E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Results of a 2000 hour wear test of the NEXIS ion engine

The Nuclear Electric Xenon Ion System (NEXIS) ion thruster was developed for potential outer planet robotic missions under NASA's Prometheus program. This engine was designed to operate at power levels ranging from 16 to over 20 kWe at specific impulses of 6000 to 7500 s for burn times of up to 10 years, satisfying the requirements of nuclear electric propulsion systems such as that on the proposed Prometheus 1 mission to explore the icy moons of Jupiter. State-of-the-art performance and life assessment tools were used to design the thruster. Following the successful performance validation of a Laboratory Model thruster, Development Model hardware was fabricated and subjected to vibration and wear testing. The results of a 2000-hour wear test are reported herein. Thruster performance achieved the target requirements and was steady for the duration of the test. Ion optics performance was similarly stable. Discharge loss increases of 6 eV/ion were observed in the first 500 hours of the test and were attributed to primary electron energy decreases due to cathode insert conditioning. Relatively high recycle rates were observed and were identified to be high-voltage-to-ground arcs in the back of the thruster caused by wire insulation outgassing and electron penetration through the plasma screen. Field emission of electrons between the accelerator and screen grids was observed and attributed to evolution of field emitter sites at accelerator grid aperture edges caused by ion bombardment. Preliminary modeling and analysis indicates that the NEXIS engine can meet mission performance requirements over the required lifetime. Finally, successful validation of the NEXIS design methodology, design tools, and technologies with the results of the wear test and companion performance and vibration tests presents significant applicability of the NEXIS development effort to missions of near-term as well as long-term interest for NASA.

Nuclear Electric Xenon Ion System (NEXIS)Thruster ↗

NASA NTRS2005

Results of a 2000 Hour Wear Tof the NEXIS Ion Engine

Thruster performance↗

NASA NTRS1991

Clutter modeling of the Denver Airport and surrounding areas

To accurately simulate and evaluate an airborne Doppler radar as a wind shear detection and avoidance sensor, the ground clutter surrounding a typical airport must be quantified. To do this, an imaging airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) was employed to investigate and map the normalized radar cross sections (NRCS) of the ground terrain surrounding the Denver Stapleton Airport during November of 1988. Images of the Stapleton ground clutter scene were obtained at a variety of aspect and elevation angles (extending to near-grazing) at both HH and VV polarizations. Presented here, in viewgraph form with commentary, are the method of data collection, the specific observations obtained of the Denver area, a summary of the quantitative analysis performed on the SAR images to date, and the statistical modeling of several of the more interesting stationary targets in the SAR database. Additionally, the accompanying moving target database, containing NRCS and velocity information, is described.

Harrah, Steven D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Mission modeling for the Manned Transportation System study

To determine the requirements and potential options for the next Manned Transportation System, a 'needs' analysis was performed. The analysis identified the number, mass, type, and destination of manned and unmanned payloads to space. The needs model is based on the NASA Mixed Fleet Manifest and a version of the FY90 Civil Needs Data Base with Space Station Restructure modifications and a 'strawman' DOD mission model.

Gaunce, Michael T.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model Package Report: Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release Model (CASWR Model)

This document describes the implementation of a solid waste form release model in GoldSim for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) Update. This Composite Analysis Solid Waste Release model (CASWR model) was designed to generate deterministic radionuclide release rates for Hanford’s Central Plateau solid waste disposal sites using single realizations of release model coefficients. Five generalized waste form types are used for the conceptual model of waste release: surplus reactor block, cement, soil-debris, grouted residual waste, and ancillary equipment. The surplus reactor block waste form consists of radionuclide leaching from surplus production graphite reactor core blocks via unspecified processes (White et al., 1984 as cited in PNNL-15965). The cement waste form represents solidified wastes whose permeability is much lower than that of the surrounding soil. The soil-debris waste form type is defined as unconsolidated waste mixed with soil material. Tanks and canyon complexes comprise the grouted residual waste form such that their solid waste will be grouted and capped with a surface barrier at the completion of their cleanup. Finally, the ancillary equipment waste form constitutes contaminant releases from ancillary and auxiliary waste form residues associated with tank farms at closure. Individual sub-models are implemented to numerically represent a respective waste form within the CASWR Model: Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model, Cement Sub-model, SoilDebris Sub-model, Grouted Residual Waste Sub-model, and Ancillary Equipment Submodel. Advection is assumed to be the primary transport process governing the release of radionuclides in the Ancillary Equipment and Soil-Debris Sub-models. Diffusion is assumed to be the primary release process in the Grouted Residual Waste and Cement Sub-models. An unspecified zero-order release process is considered in the Surplus Reactor Block Sub-model due to the lack of information regarding actual processes involved in irradiated graphite leaching. The Surplus Reactor Block, Cement, and SoilDebris Sub-models were compared against analytical solutions (PNNL-11800, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the 200 Area Plateau of the Hanford Site). The agreement between results of these analytical solutions and the corresponding waste form models verified their correct implementation in GoldSim. A 1-D modeling abstraction approach for the Grouted Residual Waste and Ancillary Equipment Sub-models was adopted from existing Performance Assessment (PA) models. Despite the simplifications made in these sub-models, they were found to be appropriate representations of the waste forms, similar to what was used in the Waste Management Area C PA model (RPP-ENV-58782, Performance Assessment of Waste Management Area C, Hanford Site, Washington, Rev. 0). A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the most influential parameters in each waste form sub-model. Suggestions for considering pH-dependent and redox-dependent release mechanisms are formulated through the development of a conditional constant approach in GoldSim.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS1999

Design of a Formation of Earth Orbiting Satellites: The Auroral Lites Mission

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has proposed a set of spacecraft flying in close formation around the Earth in order to measure the behavior of the auroras. The mission, named Auroral Lites, consists of four spacecraft configured to start at the vertices of a tetrahedron, flying over three mission phases. During the first phase, the distance between any two spacecraft in the formation is targeted at 10 kilometers (km). The second mission phase is much tighter, requiring satellite interrange spacing targeted at 500 meters. During the final phase of the mission, the formation opens to a nominal 100-km interrange spacing. In this paper, we present the strategy employed to initialize and model such a close formation during each of these phases. The analysis performed to date provides the design and characteristics of the reference orbit, the evolution of the formation during Phases I and II, and an estimate of the total mission delta-V budget. AI Solutions' mission design tool, FreeFlyer(R), was used to generate each of these analysis elements. The tool contains full force models, including both impulsive and finite duration maneuvers. Orbital maintenance can be fully modeled in the system using a flexible, natural scripting language built into the system. In addition, AI Solutions is in the process of adding formation extensions to the system facilitating mission analysis for formations like Auroral Lites. We will discuss how FreeFlyer(R) is used for these analyses.

Hametz, Mark E.↗