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At least 1,585 records · Page 88

Multi-Agent Modeling and Simulation Approach for Design and Analysis of MER Mission Operations

A space mission operations system is a complex network of human organizations, information and deep-space network systems and spacecraft hardware. As in other organizations, one of the problems in mission operations is managing the relationship of the mission information systems related to how people actually work (practices). Brahms, a multi-agent modeling and simulation tool, was used to model and simulate NASA's Mars Exploration Rover (MER) mission work practice. The objective was to investigate the value of work practice modeling for mission operations design. From spring 2002 until winter 2003, a Brahms modeler participated in mission systems design sessions and operations testing for the MER mission held at Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). He observed how designers interacted with the Brahms tool. This paper discussed mission system designers' reactions to the simulation output during model validation and the presentation of generated work procedures. This project spurred JPL's interest in the Brahms model, but it was never included as part of the formal mission design process. We discuss why this occurred. Subsequently, we used the MER model to develop a future mission operations concept. Team members were reluctant to use the MER model, even though it appeared to be highly relevant to their effort. We describe some of the tool issues we encountered.

Seah, Chin↗

Impact of Detailed Parameter Modeling of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines on Production Cost Simulation: Preprint

Flexible resources are increasingly important as variable renewable energy deployment in the power system increases. Although many systems are transitioning away from fossil fuels, open-cycle gas turbines are likely to play an important balancing role for some time, thus requiring accurate modeling of their operational parameters. This paper explores the impact of detailed representation of three operational parameters - start- up costs, run-up rates, and forced outage rates - in the production cost model of a system as it adopts higher levels of wind and solar. Using PLEXOS simulations of the NREL-118 bus test system, the study examines how more detailed parameter modeling affects outcomes such as the number of start-ups and shutdowns, ramping and total generation costs for open-cycle gas turbines, as renewable energy levels increase. The results suggest the value of detailed parameter modeling and continued research on combustion turbines' ability to provide flexibility.

economic dispatch↗

A Comparison of Approximation Modeling Techniques: Polynomial Versus Interpolating Models

Two methods of creating approximation models are compared through the calculation of the modeling accuracy on test problems involving one, five, and ten independent variables. Here, the test problems are representative of the modeling challenges typically encountered in realistic engineering optimization problems. The first approximation model is a quadratic polynomial created using the method of least squares. This type of polynomial model has seen considerable use in recent engineering optimization studies due to its computational simplicity and ease of use. However, quadratic polynomial models may be of limited accuracy when the response data to be modeled have multiple local extrema. The second approximation model employs an interpolation scheme known as kriging developed in the fields of spatial statistics and geostatistics. This class of interpolating model has the flexibility to model response data with multiple local extrema. However, this flexibility is obtained at an increase in computational expense and a decrease in ease of use. The intent of this study is to provide an initial exploration of the accuracy and modeling capabilities of these two approximation methods.

Giunta, Anthony A.↗

A Chemical Model of Micrometeorite Impact into Olivine

Laboratory simulations of space weathering using laser irradiation have been successful in reproducing space weathering characteristics such as the reduction of olivine to form nanophase iron particles. However, the chemistry of the reduction of Fe2+ in olivine to Fe metal has not been fully explored. We present a thermodynamic model of olivine undergoing post-impact cooling and decompression.

Sheffer, A. A.↗

Binodal Colloidal Aggregation Test - 4: Polydispersion

Binodal Colloidal Aggregation Test - 4: Polydispersion (BCAT-4-Poly) will use model hard-spheres to explore seeded colloidal crystal nucleation and the effects of polydispersity, providing insight into how nature brings order out of disorder. Crewmembers photograph samples of polymer and colloidal particles (tiny nanoscale spheres suspended in liquid) that model liquid/gas phase changes. Results will help scientists develop fundamental physics concepts previously cloaked by the effects of gravity.

Chaikin, Paul M.↗

Mixture Models for Dependent Observations

Parametric mixture models appropriate for data presented in homogeneous blocks of varying sizes from several unidentified source populations are considered. For most applications, the data elements within each block are dependent. Models are proposed for multivariate normal data incorporating two types of dependence, exchangeability of elements within blocks, and a Markov structure for blocks. The consequences of assuming exchangeability, when in fact the Markov structure holds, are explored. Computational problems for each model are considered, and results of a simple test of the exchangeability hypothesis for LANDSAT data are presented.

Peters, C.↗

Evaluating spectral cloud effective radius retrievals from the Enhanced MODIS Airborne Simulator (eMAS) during ORACLES

Satellite remote sensing retrievals of cloud effective radius (CER) are widely used for studies of aerosol–cloud interactions. Such retrievals, however, rely on forward radiative transfer (RT) calculations using simplified assumptions that can lead to retrieval errors when the real atmosphere deviates from the forward model. Here, coincident airborne remote sensing and in situ observations obtained during NASA's ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) field campaign are used to evaluate retrievals of CER for marine boundary layer stratocumulus clouds and to explore impacts of forward RT model assumptions and other confounding factors. Specifically, spectral CER retrievals from the Enhanced MODIS Airborne Simulator (eMAS) and the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) are compared with polarimetric retrievals from RSP and with CER derived from droplet size distributions (DSDs) observed by the Phase Doppler Interferometer (PDI) and a combination of the Cloud and Aerosol Spectrometer (CAS) and the Two-Dimensional Stereo Probe (2D-S). The sensitivities of the eMAS and RSP spectral retrievals to assumptions about the DSD effective variance (CEV) and liquid water complex index of refraction are explored. CER and CEV inferred from eMAS spectral reflectance observations of the backscatter glory provide additional context for the spectral CER retrievals. The spectral and polarimetric CER retrieval agreement is case dependent, and updating the retrieval RT assumptions, including using RSP polarimetric CEV retrievals as a constraint, yields mixed results that are tied to differing sensitivities to vertical heterogeneity. Moreover, the in situ cloud probes, often used as the benchmark for remote sensing CER retrieval assessments, themselves do not agree, with PDI DSDs yielding CER values 1.3–1.6 µm larger than CAS and with CEV roughly 50 %–60 % smaller than CAS. Implications for the interpretation of spectral and polarimetric CER retrievals and their agreement are discussed.

Meyer, Kerry [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GS↗

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

The intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to climate change poses a threat to aging and under-designed water infrastructure systems which cannot adequately manage intense storm events. Developing a comprehensive plan for managing rain-driven flooding events is challenging due to uncertainties in the magnitude and frequency of future storm events and conflicting stakeholder objectives. In the City of Baltimore, Maryland, stormwater infrastructure is struggling to keep up with rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding events, which regularly damage housing and disrupt transportation for residents. In this study, a hybrid of community engagement, numerical modeling, and artificial intelligence techniques are employed to explore prospective urban flooding adaptations. Community engagement drives the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed. The model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data from the City, high-resolution spatial data, insights from local public works experts, and the lived experiences of City residents. This co-developed model simulates adaptations of interest to stakeholders in the city, including green and grey infrastructure and operational management strategies. Stormwater management scenarios focused on inlet cleaning and spatially concentrated green infrastructure are found to be the most effective in reducing flood depths in community priority locations. Together, these adaptations can reduce the duration of intersection inundation by more than twenty minutes, allowing for quicker emergency response and restoration of typical transportation systems. Future work will combine this community engaged flooding model with the Deep Uncertainties Pathways framework to explore tradeoffs between adaptations and develop dynamic adaptations which align with community objectives, enhance climate resilience in Baltimore, and can be adjusted in response to changing future conditions.

Ava, Spangler [Pennsylvania State University]↗

Recent Advancements in Modeling and Simulation of Entry Systems at NASA

This paper describes recent development of modeling and simulation technologies for entry systems in support of NASA's exploration missions. Mission-tailored research and development in modeling of entry systems occurs across the Agency (e.g., within the Orion and Mars 2020 Programs), however the aim of this paper is to discuss the broad, cross-mission research conducted by NASA's Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project, which serves as the Agency's only concerted effort toward advancing entry systems across a range of technical disciplines. Technology development in ESM is organized and prioritized from a system-level perspective, resulting in four broad technical areas of investment: (1) Predictive material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Computational and experimental aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and control. Investments in thermal protection material modeling are geared toward high-fidelity, predictive models capable of handling complex structures, with an eye toward optimizing design performance and quantifying thermal protection system reliability. New computational tools have been developed to characterize material properties and behavior at the microstructural level, and experimental techniques (molecular beam scattering, micro-computed tomography, among others) have been developed to measure material kinetics, morphology, and other parameters needed to inform and validate detailed simulations. Advancements have also been made in macrostructural simulation capability to enable 3-D system-scale calculations of material response with complex topological features, including differential recession of tile gaps. Research and development in the area of shock layer kinetics has focused on air and CO2-based atmospheres. Capacity and capability of the NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) have been expanded in recent years and analysis of resulting data has led to several improvements in kinetic models, while simultaneously reducing uncertainties associated with radiative heat transfer predictions. First-principles calculations of fundamental kinetic, thermodynamic, and transport data, along with state-specific models for non-equilibrium flow regimes, have also yielded new insights and have the potential to vastly improve model fidelity. Aerosciences is a very broad area of interest in entry systems, yet a number of important challenges are being addressed: Coupled fluid-structure simulations of parachute inflation and dynamics; Experimental and computational studies of vehicle dynamics; Multi-phase flow with dust particles to simulate entry environments at Mars during dust storms; Studies of roughness-induced heating augmentation relevant to tiled and woven thermal protection systems; and Advanced numerical methods to optimize computational analyses for desired accuracy versus cost. Guidance and control in the context of entry systems has focused on development of methods for multi-axis control (i.e. pitch and yaw, rather than bank angle alone) of spacecraft during entry and descent. With precision landing requirements driven by Mars human exploration goals, recent efforts have yielded 6-DOF models of multi-axis control with propulsive descent of both inflatable and rigid ellipsled-like architectures.

Barnhardt, Michael D.↗

Exploration of OMI Products for Air Quality Applications Through Comparisons with Models and Observations

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board NASA s Aura satellite was launched in July 2004, and is now providing daily global observations of total column ozone, NO2, and SO2, as well as aerosol information. Algorithms have also been developed to produce daily tropospheric ozone and NO2 products. The tropospheric ozone product reported here is a tropospheric residual computed through use of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone profile data to quantify stratospheric ozone. We are investigating the applicability of OMI products for use in air quality modeling, forecasting, and analysis. These investigations include comparison of the OMI tropospheric O3 and NO2 products with global and regional models and with lower tropospheric aircraft observations. Large-scale transport of pollution seen in the OM1 tropospheric O3 data is compared with output from NASA's Global Modeling Initiative global chemistry and transport model. On the regional scale we compare the OMI tropospheric O3 and NO2 with fields from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Environmental Protection Agency (NOAA/EPA) operational Eta/CMAQ air quality forecasting model over the eastern United States. This 12-km horizontal resolution model output is roughly of equivalent resolution to the OMI pixel data. Correlation analysis between lower tropospheric aircraft O3 profile data taken by the University of Maryland over the Mid-Atlantic States and OMI tropospheric column mean volume mixing ratio for O3 will be presented. These aircraft data are representative of the lowest 3 kilometers of the atmosphere, the region in which much of the locally-generated and regionally-transported ozone exists.

Pickering, K. E.↗

Exploring the ENSO modulation of the QBO periods with GISS E2.2 models

Observational studies have shown that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts an influence on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The downward propagation of the QBO tends to speed up and slow down during El Niño and La Niña, respectively. Recent results from general circulation models have indicated that the ENSO modulation of the QBO requires a relatively high horizontal resolution, and that it does not show up in the climate models with parameterized but temporally constant gravity wave sources. Here, we demonstrate that the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) E2.2 models can capture the observed ENSO modulation of the QBO period with a horizontal resolution of 2 ∘ latitude by 2.5 ∘ longitude but with its gravity wave sources being parameterized interactively. This is because El Niño events lead to more vigorous gravity wave sources generating more absolute momentum fluxes over the equatorial belt, as well as less filtering of these waves into the tropical lower stratosphere through a weakening of the Walker circulation. Various components of the ENSO system, such as the sea surface temperatures, the convective activities, and the Walker circulation, are intimately involved in the generation and propagation of parameterized gravity waves, through which ENSO modulates the QBO period in GISS E2.2 models.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation↗

Multi-Frequency Analysis of Simulated versus Observed Variability in Tropospheric Temperature

Studies seeking to identify a human-caused global warming signal generally rely on climate model estimates of the “noise” of intrinsic natural variability. Assessing the reliability of these noise estimates is of critical importance. We evaluate here the statistical significance of differences between climate model and observational natural variability spectra for global-mean mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT). We use TMT information from satellites and large multimodel ensembles of forced and unforced simulations. Our main goal is to explore the sensitivity of model-versus-data spectral comparisons to a wide range of subjective decisions. These include the choice of satellite and climate model TMT datasets, the method for separating signal and noise, the frequency range considered, and the statistical model used to represent observed natural variability. Of particular interest is the amplitude of the interdecadal noise against which an anthropogenic tropospheric warming signal must be detected. We find that on time scales of 5–20 years, observed TMT variability is (on average) overestimated by the last two generations of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This result is relatively insensitive to different plausible analyst choices, enhancing confidence in previous claims of detectable anthropogenic warming of the troposphere and indicating that these claims may be conservative. A further key finding is that two commonly used statistical models of short-term and long-term memory have deficiencies in their ability to capture the complex shape of observed TMT spectra.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of high-fidelity temperature feedback modeling on fusion blanket neutronics

Accurate modeling and simulation of neutron and gamma transport and interactions within fusion tokamaks represents a critical area of research for fusion energy development. This paper presents a method to couple computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results to high-fidelity neutronics analyses, to explore the fusion neutronics’ feedback to blanket temperature and density. This method is demonstrated on a sector model of a tokamak with immersion molten salt blanket, and the relative differences in tritium breeding ratio (TBR) with spatially-resolved temperature modeling are explored. Additionally, the influence of higher fidelity neutronics results on the subsequent CFD analysis is explored. Results show that global TBR changes $<$0.1% due to temperature spatial distribution modeling. However, local TBR in areas with high temperature variability can have up to ∼4% difference.

blanket fusion↗

Development and Verification of a Finite-Difference Model of the Sorbent-Based Atmosphere Revitalization System for the Crew Exploration

A vacuum-swing adsorption (VSA) process to remove metabolic water, metabolic carbon dioxide, and metabolic and equipment generated trace contaminant gases from the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) atmosphere is being designed. For the CEV, the approach is taken that all metabolic water must be removed by the Sorbent-Based Atmosphere Revitalization System (SBAR), a technology approach that has not been used in previous spacecraft life support systems. To support the design of the SBAR, a Finite Difference computer model has been developed. In addition, examination of the competitive adsorption aspects of water and carbon dioxide on various sorbents is being investigated in order to both refine the computer simulation and gain understanding of the VSA process

Ritter, James↗

Local SU(2) × U(1) quark flavor symmetry in the RS bulk

We propose a model of quark flavor based on an additional SU(2) × U(1) local symmetry in a warped extra dimensional bulk. In contrast to other works, we break the additional gauge symmetry in the bulk via two complex scalars which acquire bulk vevs, rather than relying on brane-localized symmetry breaking. A gauge-covariant Kaluza-Klein decomposition of a theory with a bulk spontaneously broken gauge symmetry is performed, and exact expressions for the bulk profiles of all physical particles in such systems are given. The SM quark masses and mixings are then recreated using gauge-covariant bulk quark mass terms and Yukawa-like couplings to the new bulk scalars. A numerical sampling of points in the model parameter space that recreate the quark masses and mixings is performed at a KK scale of M KK = 5 TeV. We then compute the ΔF = 2 4-quark operators arising from our new flavor gauge bosons and scalars, and those arising from Kaluza-Klein modes of SM gauge bosons. By decoupling one of our bulk scalar fields to all quark fields except the right-handed up-like sector, we find that it is possible to greatly suppress tree-level contributions to the highly constrained Kaon mixing parameters. Instead, the dominant constraints on the model emerge from neutral Bd and D meson mixing. These constraints are explored with our numerical sampling of the model parameter space, and the specific contribution of the new flavor gauge bosons and scalars is discussed. We find that for a significant range of realistic flavor gauge couplings, the new gauge bosons compete with the normally dominant gluon flavor-changing currents, but flavor-changing operators emerging from the bulk scalar fields are highly suppressed. Finally, we briefly comment on flavor constraints that are independent of the flavor gauge sector arising from the Z$\overline{b}$ L b L coupling and rare top decays.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Reducing On-Board Computer Propagation Errors Due to Omitted Geopotential Terms by Judicious Selection of Uploaded State Vector

Several future, and some current missions, use an on-board computer (OBC) force model that is very limited. The OBC geopotential force model typically includes only the J(2), J(3), J(4), C(2,2) and S(2,2) terms to model non-spherical Earth gravitational effects. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Wide-field Infrared Explorer (WIRE), Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE), Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite (SWAS), and X-ray Timing Explorer (XTE) all plan to use this geopotential force model on-board. The Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) is already flying this geopotential force model. Past analysis has shown that one of the leading sources of error in the OBC propagated ephemeris is the omission of the higher order geopotential terms. However, these same analyses have shown a wide range of accuracies for the OBC ephemerides. Analysis was performed using EUVE state vectors that showed the EUVE four day OBC propagated ephemerides varied in accuracy from 200 m. to 45 km. depending on the initial vector used to start the propagation. The vectors used in the study were from a single EUVE orbit at one minute intervals in the ephemeris. Since each vector propagated practically the same path as the others, the differences seen had to be due to differences in the inital state vector only. An algorithm was developed that will optimize the epoch of the uploaded state vector. Proper selection can reduce the previous errors of anywhere from 200 m. to 45 km. to generally less than one km. over four days of propagation. This would enable flight projects to minimize state vector uploads to the spacecraft. Additionally, this method is superior to other methods in that no additional orbit estimates need be done. The definitive ephemeris generated on the ground can be used as long as the proper epoch is chosen. This algorithm can be easily coded in software that would pick the epoch within a specified time range that would minimize the OBC propagation error. This techniques should greatly improve the accuracy of the OBC propagation on-board future spacecraft such as TRMM, WIRE, SWAS, and XTE without increasing complexity in the ground processing.

Greatorex, Scott↗